Sunday, April 28, 2013

There's a catch



Another NFL Draft has come and gone. Another 254 guys a step closer to a pro football career. Of those 254, only a dozen or so are a solid bet to make an impact in the league. The rest? Nobody really knows. Not even the geniuses of Sports Blab Radio.

The Pats had just five picks entering the draft but Belichick turned the team's first rounder into four more picks. Surprisingly -- or not, it is Belichick -- the Pats then used seven of those picks. Go figure.

The needs coming into the draft ... wide receiver, linebacker depth, defensive linemen, defensive backs. The Pats took two wide receivers, two linebackers, a defensive end, a safety, and a corner. Since the Patriots have one of the strongest rosters in the league it won't be easy for any of them to make an impact. But if any of them do, hopefully it will be the wide receivers.

Belichick took Aaron Dobson of Marshall in the second round and then added Josh Boyce of TCU in the fourth. Dobson is 6-3. Boyce is 6-0. Here's what NFL.com had to say about them. Dobson: "I like his size at 210 pounds. His production was good but not elite. I'll tell you what he is: He's raw, but he's got upside. He put on a show at his pro day." Boyce: "Would have gone higher if it wasn't for a foot injury this year. All of a sudden, New England's gotten bigger and physical on the edge. It's more toys for Tom Brady to play with."

Bigger and physical on the edge. That's exactly what the team needs. If Dobson or Boyce can play the Anquan Boldin role that would be a nice offensive toy indeed. And it's offensive toys that the Patriots really need. The perception is that it's the mediocre defense that has been standing in the way of the fourth Lombardi. That's only half true. The much-heralded offense has been just as responsible. Greg Bedard -- formerly of the Globe -- wrote an excellent column before the draft offering that wide receiver is what the team needs most. Bedard is one of the best football writers around and that's why he's headed to SI. No other writer breaks down the game like him. He watches so much film I've often wondered if he has a life. Bedard put the Pats' offensive need simply:

The constant theme in season-ending losses of late has been an inability to put enough points on the board. Dating to the Super Bowl loss to the Giants after the 2007 season, the Patriots have scored 14, 14, 14 (if you take out the garbage-time Deion Branch touchdown late vs. Jets), 17, and 13 points in playoff games that ended their seasons. Complain all you want about the defense, but 14.4 points per game is not good enough in today’s NFL. 

The Patriots have won just two playoff games when scoring fewer than 20 points: 17 vs. the Titans in ’03 and 16 vs. the Raiders in ’01, and the game has changed much since then. The Patriots averaged 20.0, 24.3, and 28.3 points in the three postseasons that ended in Super Bowl victories. The last six Super Bowl champions have averaged 31.0 (Ravens), 25.5 (Giants), 30.3 (Packers), 35.7 (Saints), 28.3 (Steelers), and 21.3 points (Giants). 

The Patriots need to become more dangerous on offense to win the biggest games. Will they roll up countless yards and points in the regular season? Of course, unless their health becomes a huge problem. Belichick, Josh McDaniels, and Tom Brady can pick apart a great majority of defenses. But in the biggest games and against the toughest defenses, they have been shut down. Repeatedly.

A look at the numbers in the Pats' playoff losses says it all. 14 ('07 vs. Giants), 14 ('09 vs. Ravens), 21 ('10 vs. Jets), 17 ('11 vs. Giants), 13 ('12 vs. Ravens). Going into those games it was hard to imagine the Pats' offense being held in check. But each time they were. Injuries to Welker in '09 and Gronk the last two years sure didn't help. Same with too many turnovers, drops, and missed wide open receivers wearing #83. But the biggest problem -- as Bedard says -- is that the offense that is like a fireworks display in the regular season turns into a mere sparkler in the playoffs. That has to change.

And to that end Belichick has -- once again -- remade the weapons around Brady. Out are Welker, Woody, Lloyd, Branch (again), and Stallworth (again). In are the two rookies, Danny Amendola, veterans Donald Jones, Michael Jenkins, and Leon Washington, along with running back LeGarrett Blount who the team picked up in a draft-day trade with Tampa.

Add those guys to the key to the whole thing -- tight ends Gronk, Hernandez, and Ballard -- and hopefully you have an offense that will have as much grit as flash.

That's what you need come playoff time.



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