Stretch drive

The NFL has hit the three-quarter point of the season. Just four games left to determine which teams will make the playoffs and which will be in planning-for-the-draft mode. Some teams, like the Patriots, are pretty much assured of making the postseason, it's just a matter of deciding where and when they'll play. However, not every playoff team is in the top 10. The AFC West and South and, of course, the NFC West are led by teams that will be playing in January but shouldn't be, while some of the teams on this list will be home. That's why the Pats win over the Jets was so big. It's called controlling your own destiny.

1. New England Patriots (10-2): I had high hopes for the Pats this season. But this is ridiculous. 45-3 over the Jets. Big road wins in Pittsburgh, San Diego, and Miami. Tough conference wins against Baltimore and Indy. 10-2. They have met every challenge head on and won most of them. The road gets even tougher, if that's possible. But that's OK because Tom Brady, officially in the prime of his career, is playing out of his mind.

2. Atlanta Falcons (10-2): Mattie Ice. The Falcons QB has moved into the top tier at his position this season with several come-from-behind victories. Kevin Turner and the running game supply the thunder to Ryan and the passing game's lightning. Throw in the defense that is 8th in the league against the run and 7th in points allowed and Atlanta is a serious threat to dethrone the defending NFC champ Saints. Especially if they have home-field advantage, where they never lose.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3): Big Ben had his nose broken last week against the Ravens, was harassed all game, and still made huge play after huge play. I don't give him the respect a two-time Super Bowl champ deserves. Maybe I should. Late in the game Baltimore linebacker Terrell Suggs had him for what would have been a big sack but Roethlisberger stiffed armed his way out of it, threw the ball away, and then made the winning TD pass on the next play. The Steelers should earn a bye.

4. New Orleans Saints (9-3): The defending champs have had a very challenging season, and still they have only lost three times. The Saints are starting to get healthy again and Drew Brees is starting to look less like Drew Bledsoe in the past few weeks. Running backs Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas are back to take some of the heat off Brees. The Saints won it all last year with one of the worst defenses in the league. This year they are 5th in points allowed. The Saints won't give up their title easily.

5. New York Jets (9-3): Losses don't come any uglier than what the Jets endured in Gillette. But that was the Jets first road loss this season. And you know if they should return to Foxborough in January they won't be afraid. That said, the Jets offense has some serious issues and it's not all Mark Sanchez's fault. LT is beginning to do his usual late season fade. The offensive play calling is aggressive at the wrong time and conservative at the wrong time. The Jets will have to win some road playoff games again. They can do that.

6. Baltimore Ravens (8-4): The Ravens had a chance to sweep the Steelers and put a lock on the AFC North, only to see Troy Palamalu's hair cause a big fumble that cost them the game. But they are still the team in the AFC that scares me the most come playoff time. Hopefully they don't make it out of the first round. Their offense, which was supposed to get better with the addition of Anquan Boldin, is actually not as tough as it was last year. Maybe there is something to this thing about the focus on a deep threat holding back on offense.

7. Green Bay Packers (8-4): They are one game behind Chicago in the NFC North, but I rank da Pack ahead of da Bears. We'll see if I'm right, as the Pats play them in back-to-back weeks. Aaron Rodgers continues to have a great season despite no running game. But it's the pounding defense, allowing a league best 14 points per game, that should allow the Pack to win the NFC's black and blue division. That seems fitting.

8. Chicago Bears (9-3): Can a team coached by a guy named Lovie really win it all? No. The Bears are on a nice five-game winning streak heading into their clash with the Pats at frigid Soldier Field this weekend. But don't let that fool you. Jay Cutler is still the kind of QB that will kill his team when it counts. The Bears also have a great defense, leading the league in sacks, but the offensive line is also leading the lead in sacks... sacks allowed that is. That is not a formula for success.

9. Philadelphia Eagles (8-4): The Eagles and dog-lover Michael Vick are the darlings of the football talk shows on ESPN and the NFL Network. But please stop with the Vick MVP talk. Have you been watching Tom Brady? That's your MVP. But the dog whsiperer is having a great year and is sure fun to watch. Can he make the big plays in the postseason? That will be the key for Andy Reid. Then again, that was the key when Donovan McNabb was the QB. And we all know what the answer was all those years.

10. Kansas City Chiefs (8-4): My preseason pick for AFC surprise team continues to surprise. Each week I see predictions that the almighty Chargers are going to win the West. Each week the Chiefs remain at the top. If they split their last four games to go 10-6 they will take the division crown and be one tough team to play at home in the first round. Matt Cassell had an emergency appendectomy this week. The timing couldn't be worse since the Chiefs play the Chargers. But even if they lose I still think KC, behind Romeo's D, will outlast the overrated Chargers.

Dishonorable mention: Denver Broncos. Six weeks into his first year as head coach, Josh McDaniels was undefeated and pumping his fist like the big kid on the playground. Since then the former Pats assistant coach has been kicked around like the little kid on the playground. Now he's fired. Another Belichick protege who didn't seem to understand the key to his mentor's success. Win or lose you can never lose your focus. If you do, you'll lose your job.