Mistaken identity

WEEK 2
The Patriots had not lost a home opener since Gillette Stadium opened its gates 10 years ago. I had not missed a home opener in those 10 years. Both streaks are over.

If I didn't have enough good reasons to be glad to be on the Cape this week, being away from the "panic button" talk of the Sports Blabosphere after the 20-18 loss to Arizona is another one. The Pats are 1-1. The Cards are 2-0. Who wants to bet a 12-pack on which team will end up with the better record at the end of Week 17? The Patriots went into Buffalo last season in Week 3 and lost. The Pats were 2-1. The Bills were a surprising 3-0. The Pats finished 13-3. The Bills finished 6-10. Leave the panic button alone.

The difference in last year's early-season loss to Buffalo, other than one was on the road and the other was at Gillette, was that in the Buffalo game the Patriots looked unstoppable as they took a 21-0 lead only to make a slew of mistakes and allow the Bills to come back and steal the game. Yesterday the Pats looked anything but unstoppable. They were unfocused, undisciplined, unprepared, and unlucky.

But -- just as in the Buffalo game -- it was the slew of mistakes that cost the Pats the game. My guess is that they won't make that many mistakes in the next 14 games combined. The same thing happened in 2010 when the 6-1 Patriots went into Cleveland to face the 2-5 Browns. The Pats turned the ball over three times including a fumbled kickoff. It was an ugly game and it ended in a 34-14 beating. The Pats didn't lose a game the rest of the season to finish 14-2. The Browns? They finished 5-11.

"Stunning" seems to be the word of choice to describe the loss. When you have an interception on your first offensive play, lose one of your key offensive players to injury, have a punt blocked at your own goal line, commit eight mostly stupid penalties, drop several key passes, and have your quarterback turtle one too many times it's not stunning at all ... it's inevitable. Any time all those things happen in one game you are very likely going to lose.

There were a lot of things not to like about the loss. One look at Belichick's face at the post-game press conference told you that. That's the way it is with losses. Especially at home. Of course, the biggest thing not to like is the loss of Aaron Hernandez (especially since he's the best player on my fantasy team the Rozzie Rats). If it's a high ankle sprain he could miss a month or more. That really hurts. But the Pats offense will be fine. With Brady, Gronk, Lloyd, Welker (yes, he's still on the team), Woody, and Ridley it's still one of the best in the game.

As is the defense. And that's one of the things you can like after a disappointing loss. Go to NFL.com and click on the Team Stats page. What team is ranked second in total defense? That would be your young, fast, and nasty New England Patriots D. Who's seventh against the pass? Also the Pats. Fifth against the run? Yup, the Pats D. Granted, the Titans and Cards are not the most dangerous offenses in the league. But the Pats have pretty much shut them both down. Something they couldn't do against anyone the last few years. The Cards scored three points after the Brady pick and a touchdown after the bocked punt. Take away those two scores and the defense only allowed 10 points after allowing just 13 in Week 1. When the Pats lost those ugly games against the Browns (2010) and the Bills (2011) the defense allowed more than 400 yards in offense. In the loss to the Cards they allowed just 245.

It was that defense the ripped the ball from the Cardinals with just seconds to play and gave the Pats the chance to steal the game.

So I'm actually feeling very positive about the Pats today. They just have to eliminate the mistakes they made. And if there's one thing the Pats have excelled at under Belichick, it's eliminating mistakes.

Next up: An AFC title game rematch Sunday night in Baltimore. That will be a great game. Make no mistake about it.