Saturday, September 18, 2010

50-50-1

PATS-JETS: Football holy war.
The Patriots and Jets have played 101 games against each other since the two original AFL franchises were formed in 1960. The record: Pats 50 wins, Jets 50 wins. 1 tie. Now that makes for a truly great rivalry.

This week adds another entertaining chapter as the Patriots go into the spankin' new Meadowlands to face Gang Green in what is a huge game even though it's only the second week of the season. The 2010 Super Bowl champs got off to a rough start on Monday night, committing an amazing number of penalties and mistakes in losing to the Ravens at home. The also-ran Pats got off to quite a different start, looking very sharp in all phases of the game in handily beating the Bengals.

Which trend will continue?

For the Jets it's a must-win situation. A loss would mean starting off the season 0-2 at home, 0-2 in the AFC, and 0-2 in backing up Rex Ryan's tough talk. Not many teams can drop their first two homes games and rebound to have a playoff caliber season. It would require that they go nearly perfect on the road -- and winning on the road in the NFL is not easy. Just ask the Pats.

They went 2-6 on the road last year with their only two wins coming against lowly Buffalo and Tampa Bay. Fortunately they went 8-0 at home but the team's inability to gut out a road win was indicative of their overall lack of guts. A win at New York -- no matter how ugly -- would be a clear sign that the 2010 Patriots are going to be a team to reckon with.

The most noticeable difference for the Patriots in last week's win against the Bengals -- as compared to last year -- was the game plan. The Pats' offense looked flat and predictable and the defense looked lost and beatable in many games last year. It was unusual to see from a Belichick coached team. But it was a coaching staff -- and team -- in transition. So far through preseason and one real game the team looks more prepared and the game plan seems more creative.

The theme for 2010 in the NFL is coming down to one thing. Coaching. Sports Illustrated's Tim Layden had an excellent season-opening article, focusing on the Patriots, about the difference in styles between teams and coaches like Ryan and Belichick. Loud vs. quiet. Bragging vs. thinking. I enjoy watching and listening to Mt. Ryan. It's great he's coaching the Jets. He's just not the kind of guy I want coaching my team. I don't want my coach mouthing off every 15 minutes. I don't want him telling me how great his team is. I want him thinking about the next game, the next quarter, the next play to prove it. That's Belichick. While other coaches are whooping and hollering, Belichick is thinking and planning. That's been a big edge for the Pats this past decade.

That edge had dulled since the 18-1 season. That's going to happen during any great coach's time. Happened to Shula. Landry. Johnson. Cowher. But you just knew the edge would return, at least for a little while, at some point. It looks like it might be back.

And it's going to take a great coaching job to beat New York. Brady looked very comfortable in the pocket against Cincy. That won't be the case come Sunday. The Jets will be firing at him on almost every down. Ryan is as aggressive as he is loud. Belichick had two extra days to prepare for Ryan's defense. Both coaches are on a mission. One has already proven he can finish the job The other one just talks like he has.

One other factor: In the first game against New York last year the offense only scored nine points. In the second game it scored 31. The difference? Wes Welker. He'll be playing this time.

It comes down to two simple questions. Are chances good the Pats will score 20 points? Yes. Are chances good the Jets will score 20 points? No.

Make it 51-50-1. Advantage Patriots.


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