Second (round) thoughts

Time to test my prognosticating skills again. Last week the only winner I picked was the Jets. 1-3 is not going to cut it in Vegas. Unless the money from that one win was on longshot Seattle in their upset of the Saints. It wasn't.

The second-round games in the AFC are two great division rivalries. The Pats against the Jets and the Steelers against the Ravens. That's playoff football at its best. Over in the NFC, with the defending champs gone, it's the Bears hosting the Seahawks and the Falcons taking on the visiting Packers. Two interesting games. Assuming the Seahawks can play like they did last week and the weather isn't a big factor, these should be tight games with a good amount of scoring. The offenses are that good.

AFC

Baltimore (13-4) at Pittsburgh (12-4): We are all trying to get away from violent imagery following the horrible events in the alien nation of Arizona. But this game is going to be a bloodbath. Literally. At least it was when the two teams met in early December. The Ravens D broke Roethlisberger's nose in the first quarter and the big guy spent the rest of the game shoving it back into place and leading his team to victory. The winner of this game will be as bruised and bloodied as the loser. Pittsburgh has the #1 defense, the Ravens #3. And yet I expect both the offenses to make some big plays. Flacco and the Ravens offense had a great second half against KC. But this will be different. The Steelers D should be able to both keep RB Ray Rice in check and fill the lanes on Flacco. I expect Polamalu and Pittsburgh to win the turnover battle and the game. Steelers 23, Ravens 20.

NY Jets (12-5)  at New England (14-2): As Rex Ryan calls it... Round 3. The last time these two teams met was also in December. But unlike the Ravens-Steelers game it wasn't a bloodbath. It was a bludgeoning. The Pats put a 45-3 beating on Mt. Ryan and he has spent the whole week talking about making sure that doesn't happen again. Well, then he's going to have to figure out a way to stop Brady, Welker, Branch, Gronk, Woody, BenJarvis, and Hernandez. All of them. That's a tall task for a team that is still without defensive leader Jim Leonard. He went out three days before the December game and the Jets had no time to adjust. Now they have. It should make a difference. But not enough of a difference. The Pats young defense will be the key. They come into the playoffs with much more confidence than last year, having won many huge games. If they play their game, they should be able to add another one to the list. Patriots 30, Jets 20.

NFC

Green Bay (11-5) at Atlanta (13-3): This should be a great game. Saturday's schedule is Pack-Falcons and Steelers-Ravens. What a day of football. The Pack are like the Giants of 2007. We all remember them. Green Bay has a nasty pass rush and an offense that can put up just enough points to win. They did it against Philly. They could do it against Atlanta. Problem with the Pack is they make too many mistakes. Penalties. Turnovers. They often beat themselves. The Falcons, led by Matt Ryan, are almost impossible to defeat at home unless you play a perfect game. That's not the Pack's strong suit. The biggest question for the Falcons is are they ready to take the next step? They are in a similar position that the Saints were last year. New Orleans had been on the verge of making a Super Bowl run for a few years before finally breaking through. Atlanta looks ready to break through this year. Falcons 27, Packers 24.

Seattle (8-9) at Chicago (11-5): So did the Seahawks catch a break by avoiding the top-seeded Falcons? I'm not so sure. Beating the high-powered Falcons would have been a huge task. But at least the game would have been indoors on a fast track. That suits Seattle. There's a chance that Soldier Field will be cold and snowy on Sunday. That favors Da Bears. This is actually a tough game to call. I'm not a Bears believer. Jay Cutler is the kind of QB who you can almost count on to make a huge mistake. As is coach Lovie Smith. The Bears offense made many big mistakes at home against the Jets in Week 16 but the defense played well enough to overcome them. Julius Peppers and the Chicago D will not get shredded like New Orleans. Matt Hasselback will be under pressure all day. Marshawn Lynch won't be stiff-arming Bear defenders to the ground. The Seahawks are the true wild card in these playoffs. The have to win this week just to get to .500 for the season. I don't think the Bears defense will let that happen. If Pete Carroll takes this team to the NFC title game... my faith in everything will be shaken. Bears 20, Seahawks 10.