So forget who's No. 1. Who are the top 10? There are 15 (out of 32) teams with either five or six wins and another seven with four. Twenty-two out of 32 are at least .500. So how to rank them? You could write down all the names on pieces of paper and toss them in the air. That's one system. I decided to come up with another one. It's based simply on which teams the contenders have beaten and where (home or road). A road win against a good team is the most difficult thing to achieve. A home win against a bad team the easiest. Road wins in the NFL are bigger than home wins. Margin of victories don't matter. A win is a win. A loss is a loss. That's the basis for my formula:
- 1 PT for every home win against a team with a losing record.*
- 2 PTS for every home win against a team with a .500 or better record.
- 3 PTS for every road win against a team with a losing record.
- 4 PTS for every road win against a team with a .500 or better record.
- 0 PTS for any road losses or a home loss to a team with a .500 or better record.
- -1 PT for every home loss to a team with a losing record, because that's inexcusable.
If the Pats had beaten Cleveland I would have gladly put them at the top just for the fun of seeing them there because it wouldn't have lasted long. Then I would have thrown the names of all the six and five win teams in the air to fill out the next nine. But now I'm curious to see how my formula works. My top 10 teams at the mid-point of the season (with points under my formula listed after record):
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2, 18 pts): The Steelers are allowing an average of 58 yards rushing. 58. Some teams give that up on one carry. However, like every other team on this list, a strength is offset by a weakness. They are allowing almost 250 yards passing a game. You can make the big play against Pittsburgh. Offensively they are average right now, as they showed two weeks ago against New Orleans. But they are a veteran team that can go on quite a run if they stay healthy.
2. New York Jets (6-2, 16 pts): Rex Ryan and his Jets are 4-0 on the road. That alone makes them the top team in the league in my book, but my formula puts them second. The Jets are allowing 16 points per game and scoring 22. Second-year QB Sanchez has played solid football and the running game is averaging almost 150 yards thanks mostly to LT's revival. The defense is fourth against the rush, but only 17th against the pass. That will get better. As will the whole team. Their biggest question is will their attitude lead to their downfall.
3. New York Giants (6-2, 14 pts): I thought the G-Men were done under Tom Coughlin. Glad to see they are not. The one thing that took the slightest bit of sting out of the '07 Super Bowl was seeing Coughlin win a title. If you like football you have to like him. He's a heck of an old-school coach. The Giants jumped out of the gate at 6-0 last year but won only three games the rest of the season, ending in disarray. Which is how they opened this year, stumbling to 1-2 three weeks in. Five straight wins and Coughlin and the men in blue are looking, suddenly, like the NFC's best.
4. New England Patriots (6-2, 14 pts): One win away from being ranked at the top. Also one loss away from not being in the top 10 at all. If I wasn't using my formula I'd have the Pats lower. Too many problems. No true running back. A young defense that has had its moments but mostly gives up yards in big chunks. Lots of injuries (losing Gostkowski for the season is a big loss). A passing attack that thrives on the three-and-out. That said, they are 6-2 and have played some very good football. And they have Brady and a pretty good coach.
5. Tennessee Titans (5-4, 14 pts): If it wasn't for my formula I'd have the Titans much lower too. After looking at who they have beaten (Oak, at Giants, at Jags, Philly) and the fact that they are the top scoring offense in the league (averaging 28 pts) and in the top 10 in defense, I have a whole new appreciation for what Jeff Fisher is doing this season. They have the two-headed QB in Vince Young/Kerry Collins and now they have Randy Moss. But they play in the league's toughest division by far.
6. Philadelphia Eagles (5-3, 14 pts): The Eagles under Andy Reid just won't die. They trade Donovan McNabb and still have the fourth best offense in the league. Regardless of whether it's Kolb or Vick running it. Although I think it's much better with Vick. Add to that weapons LeSean and DeSean and the offense is still operating in high gear. And the defense is an opportunistic one led by old friend Asante Samuel and his five picks.
7. Baltimore Ravens (6-2, 13 pts): If not using my formula I'd have the Ravens in the top 3. Who's idea was this, anyway? Baltimore still looks like the most balanced team in the league. Ray Rice. Ray Lewis. Joe Flacco. Anquan Boldin. Ed Reed. Terrell Suggs. That's a core of talented players that few teams can match. They have a tough schedule the rest of the way but they should be battling for one of the byes at the end.
8. Indianapolis Colts (5-3, 13 pts): When the Colts are the eighth best team in the NFL... well, you have a very entertaining league. Manning (the ninth best player in the history of the game, according to the NFL Network) has watched receiver after receiver get carted off the field. And yet he keeps making plays. He really is one of the top 10 players ever. But so is Brady. The problem is the Colts have been hit by injuries equally as hard in the running game, but Manning can't rush the ball too. 
9. New Orleans Saints (6-3, 13 pts): The reigning champs may be having some issues, but they are still on track to make the playoffs. If they do (and they will) then all they need to hope for is to be healthy come January and then they can make a serious defense of their rings. They still have Brees and Payton. And unlike last year, their defense is actually pretty good. They will be in the Super Bowl.
10a. Green Bay Packers (6-3, 12 pts): The remaining six-win teams tie for the final spot. I'll put the Pack first because of their D. Clay Matthews. AJ Hawk. Charles Woodson. Tramon Williams. The Pack's defense is nasty. Oh, and the Aaron Rodgers' led offense is pretty good too. All Green Bay needs to do is hold off the Bears. They can do that.
10b. Atlanta Falcons (6-2, 12 pts): Everyone's current NFC pick will move up if they can beat the Ravens at home tonight. My formula puts them in tenth. I would have had them in the top 5. It's that kind of year. Their run defense is solid but their passing defense is not. Their offense is as balanced as you can get. They are clearly one of the strongest NFC contenders. Their lack of big-game experience is their biggest question.Dishonorable mention: The Wade Phillips era is over in Dallas. It was sure fun while it lasted. Jerry Jones won't get the pleasure of watching his Cowboys play in the Super Bowl in his stadiumopolis. Just as long as they keep showing him in his luxury box during each loss. Hopefully his massive ego will prevent him from hiring Bill Cowher next season. Cowher would be dangerous with that talent.
No comments:
Post a Comment