Sunday, April 28, 2013

There's a catch



Another NFL Draft has come and gone. Another 254 guys a step closer to a pro football career. Of those 254, only a dozen or so are a solid bet to make an impact in the league. The rest? Nobody really knows. Not even the geniuses of Sports Blab Radio.

The Pats had just five picks entering the draft but Belichick turned the team's first rounder into four more picks. Surprisingly -- or not, it is Belichick -- the Pats then used seven of those picks. Go figure.

The needs coming into the draft ... wide receiver, linebacker depth, defensive linemen, defensive backs. The Pats took two wide receivers, two linebackers, a defensive end, a safety, and a corner. Since the Patriots have one of the strongest rosters in the league it won't be easy for any of them to make an impact. But if any of them do, hopefully it will be the wide receivers.

Belichick took Aaron Dobson of Marshall in the second round and then added Josh Boyce of TCU in the fourth. Dobson is 6-3. Boyce is 6-0. Here's what NFL.com had to say about them. Dobson: "I like his size at 210 pounds. His production was good but not elite. I'll tell you what he is: He's raw, but he's got upside. He put on a show at his pro day." Boyce: "Would have gone higher if it wasn't for a foot injury this year. All of a sudden, New England's gotten bigger and physical on the edge. It's more toys for Tom Brady to play with."

Bigger and physical on the edge. That's exactly what the team needs. If Dobson or Boyce can play the Anquan Boldin role that would be a nice offensive toy indeed. And it's offensive toys that the Patriots really need. The perception is that it's the mediocre defense that has been standing in the way of the fourth Lombardi. That's only half true. The much-heralded offense has been just as responsible. Greg Bedard -- formerly of the Globe -- wrote an excellent column before the draft offering that wide receiver is what the team needs most. Bedard is one of the best football writers around and that's why he's headed to SI. No other writer breaks down the game like him. He watches so much film I've often wondered if he has a life. Bedard put the Pats' offensive need simply:

The constant theme in season-ending losses of late has been an inability to put enough points on the board. Dating to the Super Bowl loss to the Giants after the 2007 season, the Patriots have scored 14, 14, 14 (if you take out the garbage-time Deion Branch touchdown late vs. Jets), 17, and 13 points in playoff games that ended their seasons. Complain all you want about the defense, but 14.4 points per game is not good enough in today’s NFL. 

The Patriots have won just two playoff games when scoring fewer than 20 points: 17 vs. the Titans in ’03 and 16 vs. the Raiders in ’01, and the game has changed much since then. The Patriots averaged 20.0, 24.3, and 28.3 points in the three postseasons that ended in Super Bowl victories. The last six Super Bowl champions have averaged 31.0 (Ravens), 25.5 (Giants), 30.3 (Packers), 35.7 (Saints), 28.3 (Steelers), and 21.3 points (Giants). 

The Patriots need to become more dangerous on offense to win the biggest games. Will they roll up countless yards and points in the regular season? Of course, unless their health becomes a huge problem. Belichick, Josh McDaniels, and Tom Brady can pick apart a great majority of defenses. But in the biggest games and against the toughest defenses, they have been shut down. Repeatedly.

A look at the numbers in the Pats' playoff losses says it all. 14 ('07 vs. Giants), 14 ('09 vs. Ravens), 21 ('10 vs. Jets), 17 ('11 vs. Giants), 13 ('12 vs. Ravens). Going into those games it was hard to imagine the Pats' offense being held in check. But each time they were. Injuries to Welker in '09 and Gronk the last two years sure didn't help. Same with too many turnovers, drops, and missed wide open receivers wearing #83. But the biggest problem -- as Bedard says -- is that the offense that is like a fireworks display in the regular season turns into a mere sparkler in the playoffs. That has to change.

And to that end Belichick has -- once again -- remade the weapons around Brady. Out are Welker, Woody, Lloyd, Branch (again), and Stallworth (again). In are the two rookies, Danny Amendola, veterans Donald Jones, Michael Jenkins, and Leon Washington, along with running back LeGarrett Blount who the team picked up in a draft-day trade with Tampa.

Add those guys to the key to the whole thing -- tight ends Gronk, Hernandez, and Ballard -- and hopefully you have an offense that will have as much grit as flash.

That's what you need come playoff time.



Friday, April 26, 2013

More is better



I got in my car and turned on the radio just as the Pats were on the clock with the 29th pick in the first round of the draft last night. The guy on Sports Blab radio didn't sound happy. "The tweets are coming in fast and furious," he said. "People are not happy."

Then the phone calls started. "This is why the Pats don't win Super Bowls anymore," moaned one caller. "Belichick just doesn't know how to use the draft," offered another.

What had Belichick done, I wondered. Not another tight end? Please not another tight end.

Then the Sports Blab voice composed himself enough to recap what had happened. It turned out that Belichick had traded the priceless 29th pick to the Minnesota Vikings in exchange for the Vikings' second-round pick. And the Vikings' third-round pick. And their fourth-round pick. And their seventh-round pick.

Wait. What? The Patriots -- who the experts constantly reminded us were limited because they had only five picks in this draft -- had traded a late first rounder for four picks? So now the team had eight picks, with two in the second and two in the third. And the Twits were unhappy with that?

Sure, there were some good players available at 29. Safety Matt Elam was a guy I wanted. He went to the Ravens at 32. I would have been excited about wide receiver Justin Hunter who stands 6-4. But it's the NFL draft. Who knows what those guys will do? Nobody. Not even Mel Kiper.

The Patriots are not one player away from winning the Super Bowl. They already have the players they need to win it all. They've shown that the last two years. What they need more than anything is for those players to stay healthy and not make mistakes when it counts. A rookie safety won't change that.

But what the Patriots -- and every team -- needs is a handful of young potential. If you can turn one potential young talent into four potential young talents you have to do that. It's a no-brainer. I'm not even sure how Belichick got the Vikes to agree to it. More Jedi mind tricks from the hooded one. The Pats have the third youngest D in the league. Now Belichick can add to that. The players he gets in the next two days may not make in impact this year but they might in two, three, or five years. That's why the Pats are still one of the top teams in the league year after year. Belichick keeps one eye on the present and one eye on the future. It's what the best teams do.

Belichick obviously felt he wanted to have more picks ... thus getting more shots at the draft pinata. Like many things in life, when it comes to the NFL draft more is better.