F.O.Y.P.

They have almost single-handedly taken away three rings from Brady and Belichick. But they make great commercials. The new one advertising football on your phone (F.O.Y.P) has to be the best. It's not "Dick in a Box" ... but it's close.

Pick 'em

Has there ever been a more anticipated sporting event in New England? Maybe even the country? I think not.

Super Bowl XLVI between the Patriots and the Giants reminds me of the great Super Bowl matchups I grew up watching in the '70s between the Steelers and Cowboys. Even if you weren't a fan of either team you watched just to see football played at its most intense, highest (and entertaining) level. Most of the country will be rooting against the Patriots (does that make them the Cowboys now?) getting their fourth title. That's how I felt about the Steelers.

So who will win? I'm leaning towards the Patriots. As is Vegas. But the reality is this game is up for grabs. As even as they get. A toss up. A pick 'em game. These two teams have staged three very entertaining games in the past four years. Each one featuring many lead changes in the second half. There was the finale of the perfect regular season in which Brady and Moss both broke passing records to win a shootout 38-35. A month later there was that other Super Bowl that I have blocked out of my memory. And this past November there was the Giants handing the Pats their first regular season home loss in three seasons. That game featured a last-second comeback led by little Manning that was eerily familiar.

The two teams don't know how to play boring games against each other.

It's being called the rematch, a chance for the Patriots to avenge their epic loss to the Giants in Super Bowl XLII. The NFL Network has seen fit to show that game several times during the past two weeks. Thanks for that. But the two teams are very different and there's not a lot to be learned from watching that film ... except one thing. An offense that looks unstoppable can suddenly become very stoppable in a pressure game against a very good defense. I can still remember the week before that other Super Bowl when then-Giant Plaxico Burress predicted that his team would win 23-17. When Brady was informed of that he laughed. He wasn't surprised Burress predicted New York would win. Of course he would. But he was surprised at one thing. "We're only going to score 17 points?" Brady asked incredulously. He thought it was impossible for the Pats offense to be held completely in check. He learned he was wrong. As did I. We both know better this time around.

A game that you can learn a lot from is the one at Gillette in Week 9. The final score was 24-20 Giants. The score at halftime was 0-0. That's the kind of games these two teams play. Standoffs that morph into shootouts. Brady and the offense struggled -- again -- against the Giants vaunted defensive line. Then Brady, Gronk, Welker, BenJarvus, and Co. got it going and put up 20 points in a little more than a quarter. Brady finished with 342 yards passing and two touchdowns. He completed many key passes with a Giant in his face or chest. But, to quote Brady, there were times he "sucked." He threw two picks and fumbled once. Three turnovers. He got away with that two weeks ago against the Ravens. He can't get away with that again.

The matchups have been broken down, turned inside out, and X-rayed. The two teams are talented, well-coached, and disciplined. You have Brady and little Manning. Great receivers on both sides of the ball. Two not-so-great secondaries. An awesome D line and a very good D line. A very good offensive line and an average offensive line. Solid but not dominant running games. Effective special teams. It's hard to give one team a clear edge in any category. Including coaching. It's that even.

But the majority of the national media is going with the Giants. The main rationale for that is New York is the hotter team, playing the better football. The Giants are playing very good football. No doubt. But hotter? The Pats have won ten straight since their loss to the G-Men in Week 9. I would offer that they have played their best two games of the season in the playoffs. Especially on the defensive side of the ball. They shut down two of the best running attacks in the league in Denver and Baltimore. I would also offer that the Pats played their best all-around game in four years against the Ravens and would have won by 10 or more points if Brady had not made some very big mistakes. But the Pats were lucky that kick went wide left. Just as the Giants were lucky that the Niners muffed two kicks to hand them 10 points.

Both teams are playing well. Both teams have been lucky. Again... even.

My prediction for the game? Patriots 33, Giants 30.

I almost lowered that score by 10 points each after watching the replay of the November game at Gillette because the score was only 10-3 at the end of the third quarter. But I figure that these two offenses have seen these two defenses a lot recently. They know what to expect. They will be able to make some big plays. In a game like that, I like Brady and Belichick. I always will.

I was watching the local news and a report about grade-school kids getting excited for the game. The reporter put the mike in the face of a little boy wearing a Gronk jersey and asked him his prediction for the game. His eyes lit up as he said "Patriots, like by a score of 45-3!" I looked at him and laughed. He's only eight. He doesn't even remember 2008. He doesn't know what it's like to see his team lose in the big game. I hope he doesn't get to find out what that's like any time soon.

Final four

Championship weekend. The Patriots are back in it. All is -- temporarily -- right with the football world.

The title games always have potential to go down in NFL history. This year's games really have that potential. In the AFC it's the #1 (Pats) vs. #2 (Ravens). A classic offense against defense matchup. In the NFC it's #4 (Giants) vs. #2 (Niners). The Saints and the Packers -- the two teams I thought would be playing -- and their explosive offenses are gone. Left standing are two defensive-centered teams. It should be old-school football at its best.

The Globe's Chris Gasper says the Pats are left with three pretty easy teams standing between them and their fourth Lombardi. "This playoff field is as soft as a pair of Brady's UGG boots." Soft? The Ravens, Niners, and Giants? Hmmm. The Ravens were clearly the biggest threat to the Pats in the AFC all season. That's why they are the #2 seed. They are anything but soft. And here they come. And on the other side, either the Niners or Giants would be a huge challenge. Especially the battle-tested Giants. No elite QBs left? Tell that to Eli.

They say defenses win championships. If that's the case the Pats don't stand a chance against any of the three other teams in the final four. I just don't think that really is the case anymore. Just ask the Colts, Saints, and Packers ... all offensive-minded champions in the past few years.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Baltimore (13-4) at New England (14-3): A win Sunday at Gillette -- now matter how ugly -- will be one of the biggest in the Belichick-Brady era. Why? Because the Ravens pose a challenge on the level of the Colts and the Steelers in '03 and '04. The Patriots haven't won a playoff game of this level of difficulty in many years. They've won some big games -- last week's playoff blowout for instance -- but they haven't won a playoff game against a great team in many years. It feels like it's time. But that's not enough against the team that is as loud as its uniforms.

The Ravens are a very good defense. They were a great defense, but age is showing. I've seen many Ravens games during the past few years when the veteran D looked gassed in the fourth quarter, literally gasping for air. They were gasping last week against Houston till TJ Yates resuscitated them with a few very bad throws. Can the Ravens D slow down Brady, Gronk, Welker and the gang? Lots of talk has been made about how the Pats haven't played many winning teams this season. Well, the vaunted Baltimore D has only faced two top 10 offenses this year. Two. How did they do? They shut down San Fran but got smoked by Phillip Rivers and the Chargers. Two years ago the Ravens D caused havoc all over the Gillette field. The Pats didn't have Welker, Gronk, Hernandez, or Branch that day. If the line can keep Suggs off of Brady then things should be different this time. That's a big if.

Then there is the Pats defense. Oh, the Pats defense. They held the league's best rushing attack in check last week and didn't give up much in the air either. There were no late garbage-time drives allowed. No bad penalties. Not too many missed tackles. All good signs. They have enough playmakers (Wilfork, Anderson, Mayo, Spikes, Chung) to get turnovers, something they did very well again this year. Even McCourty is looking better now that he's playing some safety. The Ravens offense doesn't offer much more of a challenge than the Tebow attack of Denver. It's an offense the Pats D should be able to hold below 30 points. That should be good enough.

The Pats looked locked and loaded against the Broncos. But for many of the Broncos it was their first look at the big stage of an NFL road playoff game. They were not ready. The Ravens will be ready. It should make for a great battle. The game will come down to the same two factors evenly-matched playoff games always come down to: protecting the ball and tackling. The basics. The Pats have not taken care of the basics in the playoffs the last two years. This time they will.

PICK: Patriots 27, Ravens 17

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
New York (11-7) at San Francisco (14-3): Yes, yes. It feels like '07 all over again. Little Manning making improbable throws and his receivers making even more improbable catches. (A Hail Mary touchdown to end the half in Green Bay?) Old man Coughlin standing there with his face freezing off. The Giants pass rush destroying everything in its path. Even though the Giants finished the regular season at an unimpressive 9-7, they are better all around than that title team. But I don't think they make it to the Super Bowl this time. Why? Because Brett Favre won't be on the other side of the field to hand the G-Men the game with his patented stupid interception.

The red-hot, upstart Giants are the story right now. But it's the Niners who have been quietly winning games all year. While the NFC spotlight shined on the defending champs and their run at a 16-0 season, or the brash Lions and their nasty D, or the revived Saints and their record-setting offense, Jim Harbaugh's Niners have been on a workman-like march towards the Super Bowl. Workman-like. Just like their rookie coach who will be the unanimous coach of the year. The Niners don't do anything flashy. They pound Frank Gore on offense and sprinkle in enough Alex Smith passes. Tight end Vernon Davis has returned to stud status. It's your basic "here we come, try to stop us" approach. On defense the Niners are a beast. They were first against the run, fourth against the pass, and held opponents to just more than 14 points per game. They feature LB Patrick Willis and the Smith brothers (Justin and Aldon. They're not really brothers). The Niners forced five turnovers last week against New Orleans. They will need to do that again.

Speaking of turnovers, the Giants D forced four last week against Green Bay. They bring the fearsome foursome of Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck, Jason Pierre-Paul, and Dave Tollefson. They are all about the pass rush. They have been since '07. The key battle will be the Niners offensive line vs. the Giants defensive line. If San Fran can't hold 'em back it's going to be a long day for Mr. Gore and Mr. Smith. A very long day.

And if the Niners have trouble scoring that will be trouble because the Giants offense has been a surprise this season. Little Manning started the year saying he should be considered an elite quarterback ... eliciting a lot of snickering. Then he went out and proved that he was right. Receivers Cruz, Nicks, and Manningham give little Manning as good a set of weapons as there are in the league. Add to that bruisers Jacobs and Bradshaw and the Giants can flash you or smash you. Whatever works.

I watched the replay of the Niners-Saints game and the hitting was brutal. It was great playoff football. The hitting in this one should go to 11. I like the Niners in a game like that.

PICK: Niners 24, Giants 21