Down and out ... again

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Ravens 28, Patriots 13 (1/20/'13): Well, I didn't see that coming. I don't mean the Ravens winning and moving on to the Super Bowl. The Ravens are a very good team. I knew they could win. But I didn't think the Patriots would score just one touchdown. And no points in the second half. Zero. None. Zip.

Did anyone see that coming?

I have not turned on ESPN or the NFL Network since the game. And I won't for a while. Staying strictly with the NHL Network (thank you, league-run networks) and the Bruins. Perfect timing for the return of hockey. I'm also staying far away from Sportsblab Radio. I don't need to hear the post mortem and T-Sizzle gloating. Watching it in person was bad enough.

But I did see a few headlines online while trying to catch up on non-football news (Obama is president again! Cool.) saying the Patriots lost because they weren't tough enough. Really? That's it? Welker's not tough? Spikes? Hernandez? Solder and Vollmer? Brady? Vince? Jones? Mayo? Not tough enough? Come on. They lost because the offense picked a bad time -- yet again -- to have a bad game. At least that's how it looked to me. They carried the play in the first half but just couldn't get rolling. It was a weird game. Like their loss to the Jets in 2010. Those games happen to even the best teams. You just hope they don't happen in the playoffs.

The Pats -- without Gronk -- weren't good enough on Sunday. But not tough enough? I don't remember the Ravens looking that tough when they were losing four out of their last five games of the season. In fact, they didn't even look like a playoff team.  But they do now. And they could very well win that Super Bowl that many (including me) have been expecting them to win for about five years. The Ravens have gone to Denver and New England and won tough playoff games on the road. They have earned it.

The Patriots? They have lost a home playoff game for the third time in four years. That's a discouraging way to end what have been some great seasons. But let's not forget that there are almost no players left on this team from 2007, the greatest team ever. It's only been five years and the Pats have already rebuilt the team and been to a Super Bowl and hosted back-to-back AFC title games. They are really entering the final stage of the rebuilding now that they have very good running backs who should only get better and an improving (slowly) defense. These last two years the Pats should have been battling for a wild card spot. Instead they were battling for another title. No matter how disappointing the ending, the last few years have provided a lot of fun.

And that's really what it's all about. Fun. That feeling on a Wednesday in September. Or November. Or January. That feeling when the week is dragging when you look ahead to Sunday and the Pats. And that feeling on Monday after they win another big game. The Pats delivered more than their share of fun -- again -- this season. And it doesn't look like it's going to end any time soon.

Title search

Championship Sunday. I'm really looking forward to going to the game (bring on the cold) but there's something to be said about getting together with a group and watching the NFC title game in the afternoon as a warm-up to the Pats-Ravens AFC rematch. Now that's a great day of football as only the NFL and flat-screen TVs can bring it to you.

Last weekend's Divisional Round was one of the most entertaining weekends of playoff football in a long, long time. Baltimore's double-OT back-and-forth upset of the Broncos and Atlanta's last-second field goal victory against Seattle were instant classics. But even the Pats' rather easy win over Houston and San Fran's similarly decisive win over Green Bay were tight contests for a good part of the game and then became displays by great offensive players.

I went 3-1 in carefully (i.e. no clue)  picking games in the first weekend and 1-3 last weekend. 4-4. That's why I don't bet on the NFL anymore. But if I were to bet this weekend ....

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP

Ravens (12-6) at Patriots (13-4): Have I mentioned this is a rematch? Last year's game came down to a last-second missed kick but I've watched the game several times and my take on it is the Patriots controlled that game most of the way. If Brady didn't -- to use his words -- "suck" the Pats win that game by double-digits. Watch the film. If Brady doesn't turn the ball over the Ravens never get a chance to make a comeback. This year's Patriots team (even minus Gronk) is better than last year's. The Patriots are fast and young. The Ravens are fast and older. The Ravens' D used to exert its will against opponents. It's not that kind of defense anymore. The Ravens used to hold teams to about 12 points a game. Now it's unusual when they hold a team to just 20. The Patriots offense is superior to the Baltimore defense. But the Baltimore offense is superior to the New England defense. So it's a wash. The clear edges come in the home field and in the coaching categories. Patriots 31, Ravens 27

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP

49ers (12-4-1) at Falcons (14-3): This may be the most important home-field advantage in the history of home-field advantages. If this game were being played in San Francisco against the confident and powerful Niners the Falcons wouldn't stand a chance. But it's in Atlanta. In a dome. On a fast track. That gives the Falcons a chance. But not a great chance. Niners' quarterback Colin Kaepernick looks unstoppable right now. He might get stopped, but it won't be by the Atlanta defense. San Fran's offense is peaking at the right time. The San Fran D has been peaking for about three years now. Altanta quarterback Matt Ryan has lots of great weapons in Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez. But he's going to have a hard time finding them with the nasty Niner D in his face. And then there's the attitude difference. Atlanta raced out to an early lead against Seattle last week and then seemed to ease up thinking the game was over. In the playoffs against a team that had come back from down 14 the week before. Meanwhile, the Niners were in a dogfight against the Packers and then blew the game open in the fourth. There was no let up by the Niners.  49ers 34, Falcons 20

Game face

Coach Bill on the game tomorrow against the Ravens ... "If you can't get excited for the AFC Championship game, what can you get excited for?"

He sure looks excited. Doesn't he?

Divisional playoff rewind

The Patriots destroyed the Tim Tebow-led Broncos last year to earn the right to host the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship game. The momentum from that romp did not carry over to the title game as Brady struggled all day and the Pats escaped with a three-point victory. This year the Pats roll into the AFC title rematch after beating the Texans 41-28. Will the offense sputter again and cough the ball up or will it click (even without Gronk) the way it is capable of and put the Ravens away? The defense is neither awful nor great. It will do the best it can. It's the offense that will decide if the Pats get another shot at their fourth Lombardi.

GOOD

• Shane Vereen (and Stevan Ridley): Vereen was actually drafted before Ridley. He was taken in the second round, followed by Ridley in the third round. With the need for a pass rusher and any kind of defensive back I was puzzled that Belichick took two running backs. I wasn't sure what his plan was. I guess I know now. Two very good backs (like tight ends) are better than one. Vereen had Kevin Faulk type game, making big plays on the ground and in the air. Ridley, who has seen a little less playing time since having some fumble issues, wasn't on the field at the start of the game but finished with 82 yards on 15 carries. Good luck stopping both these guys.
• Aaron Hernandez (and Wes Welker): That goes for these two guys, too. Losing Gronk is huge, but it's not as huge when you still have Hernandez. This was supposed to be his year, but he hurt his ankle in Week 2 and it took him a while to get back up to speed. He looks like he's back. He had some big catches against Houston. And when the defense shifts to stop Hernandez, that opens things up for Welker. Brady has plenty of weapons, but none bigger than these two. Good luck keeping them out of the end zone.
• Zoltan Mesko (and Stephen Gostkowski): The guys who sit behind us at Gillette say the darndest things. One of them last week said "Mesko is the worst punter in the league. He never kicks any long ones." Hmmmm. Wonder why that is? Could be that the Pats offense rarely gets stuffed deep in its own territory so he doesn't get too many chances. What he does get a lot of chances to do is drop the ball inside the other team's 20, and he was one of the best in the league at that. Zoltan got the chance to make some long kicks against Houston and he showed what he can do. 61 yards. 57 yards. 50 yards. 64 yards. And Gosty was solid again with some deep kickoffs and two field goals. 

BAD

• Gronk (and Woody): There are injuries and then there are injuries. The loss of Gronk is a bummer. Not just because he's one of the most unstoppable offensive forces in the game but because if the Pats were to win the Super Bowl how fun would it be to see Gronk celebrating? Pretty fun. Woody hurt his hand on the first play of the Houston game and never came back. But the word is he will be ready for the Ravens. Hopefully the Pats have had their share of injuries for the season.
• Kick coverage (and pass coverage): What's up with the kick coverage? It's been shaky too often this season. Against the Texans it was almost fatal. The Pats better tighten it up and fast. The Raven's Jacoby Jones is one of the league's best kick returners. The pass coverage needs to tighten up, too. (Is that even possible?). The Ravens' offense is getting lot of hype. More than it deserves. Especially Flacco. But one thing they are doing well is hit the big play. Which is the one thing the Pats' D can't stop. Tighten up. 

The Ravens wanted this rematch. But their plan was to hold it in Baltimore. After they pulled out a come-from-behind win in Week 3 and raced out to a 9-2 record it looked like they would. But a late-season collapse allowed the Pats to easily pass them in the playoff seedings. The rematch is on. And it's back at Gillette. It's going to be frigid. I can't wait.

Be careful what you wish for

So it seems the Baltimore Ravens wanted to play the New England Patriots instead of the Houston Texans in the AFC Championship game. That's interesting. I get the whole revenge/rematch thing. The wanting to beat the team they hate. But don't tell me that's what the Ravens really want. They really want to play the quarterback who dived head-first for this huge touchdown late in last year's game? The quarterback who dived head-first as Ray Lewis zeroed in on him and smacked him right in the middle of the back? The quarterback who took that hit and then got up and slammed the ball to the turf and got the crowed roaring? And that quarterback didn't even play a good game last year. Wait till Sunday.

Nice and cheesy

DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF GAME
Patriots 41, Texans 28 (1/13/'13): OK. Shaughnessy was right. The Texans are no match for the Patriots. But I was right too. Mac and cheese is an excellent tailgate food. Especially homemade mac and cheese on a 50 degree January playoff day.

I can't remember the last time I was as nervous about a Patriots' game as I was about the rematch with the Texans ... and about the tailgate food. I was running late (a two-week old baby can do that) and didn't have time to fully cook the mac and cheese. Fortunately Shep bought a portable oven a few years ago so both trays were able to cook another 30 minutes at 375. They came out great. Just like the game.

My stomach was full but still nervous as me and my two Don Julios settled into section 109. A few seconds later my stomach was more than nervous. The Texans' Danieal Manning took the opening kickoff 94 yards to the Pats' 12-yard line and would have scored easily if it wasn't for some championship hustle by Devin McCourty. I was barely in my seat and the Texans were on the verge of going up 7-0. But they didn't. Their second tight end dropped a sure touchdown and Matt Schaub missed an wide open Andre Johnson. The Texans settled for a field goal and you knew they had just missed a great opportunity to set the tone. Neither team could set the tone and with just more than four minutes left in the first quarter my stomach was not doing any better. Woody was standing on the sideline hurt and Gronk had already headed for the locker room holding his arm. I needed another margarita. It's good I had laid that base of mac and cheese.

And then Brady and the offense clicked. A lightning fast 65-yard touchdown drive was capped when in quick succession Vereen caught a short pass and took it 25 yards, Hernandez took it another 14 down to the goal line, and then Vereen ran in untouched before the Houston D could get set. The tone had been set. And fast. The touchdown and the next round of drinks had settled my stomach. The rest of the game built my appetite for the post-game tailgate.

It may not seem like it, but the game was actually close at the half. Houston scored 10 points in about three minutes to cut a 17-3 lead to 17-13. It was no repeat of the disaster the Texans played a month ago. This was one of the best teams in the conference showing why they were one of the best. By the time the third quarter was over the Patriots had showed the Texans who was better. Brady, Welker, and Hernandez (the key to the rest of the playoffs) combined for another big drive to open the second half. Ninko then picked off Schaub as the Texans were driving to get back in the game and the offense made it 31-13 with a 63-yard drive near the end of the quarter. The key series in the fourth quarter was classic Josh McDaniels's offense. The Pats' D stopped the Texans on a fourth-and-1 at the Houston 33. On the very next play Brady lofted a perfect pass down the left sideline and Vereen (three touchdowns) made a great catch for a touchdown. It was the killer instinct of a playoff-tested team.

The defense gave up two fourth quarter touchdowns but the game was never close. A game in which I was fearing the worst had turned out just great. It just kept getting better and better. Kind of like the post-game serving of mac and cheese.

A familiar face

The Ravens' victory in double overtime against the Broncos in Denver was one of the best playoff games I've ever seen. And one of the biggest upsets. I gave Baltimore no chance to win that game. No chance. And I thought there was no chance I would see the Manning face. But I got to see quite a bit of it. It looks good with a stocking cap.

The Ravens' shocker means the Pats and Texans play for the chance to host the AFC title game instead of having to go to Denver. As if tomorrow's game wasn't big enough. If the Pats take care of business against Houston we get a rematch of last year's epic conference title game... at Gillette. 

Pats-Ravens II. One more tailgate. The thought of that brings a happy face.

Round two

OK, that was not a very entertaining Wild Card weekend. Sure, the Bengals-Texans game was close most of the way and Seattle's comeback against the Skins had some drama but the four games were not that exciting. Unless you are a Packers, Texans, Ravens, or Seahawks fan. Then they were great games. I thought they would be more competitive but each game had a team that clearly wasn't ready for the playoffs. That should change this weekend. All four matchups should be bruising battles. Even the Patriots rematch with Houston. Despite what most in the Blabosphere are saying, this will not be an easy game for the Pats. The Texans will leave their letterman jackets behind this time. They will be ready.

AFC

Ravens (11-6) at Broncos (13-3): The Ray Lewis retirement party begins immediately after this game. I just don't see Peyton Manning losing at home after putting together the season he has in Denver. I know it's supposed to be cold and the elder Manning never wins in the cold. But you're talking about the fifth best passing attack in the league against a very average defense. Andrew Luck is no Peyton Manning. And the Colts don't have wide receivers like Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas. Add to that a healthy Willis McGahee and I don't see the Ravens D holding Manning to under 23 points. And it's very unlikely that Joe Flacco can score more than 20 points against the Denver defense. All the focus is on Manning and Lewis but the Bronco defense was third in the league against the pass and third in the league against the run. The Denver D is very very good. The Broncos are no 13-3 fluke. And they are at home. They will be hosting the AFC title game. Broncos 27, Ravens 16.

Texans (13-4) at Patriots (12-4): No one is giving Houston a chance to win this one. Including me. But that doesn't mean it will be an easy game or that the Texans can't win. They can. I just don't think they will. But I didn't think the Jets could come into Gillette in the Divisional Round two years ago and win. They did. And this Texans team is much better than that Jets team. Much better. I watched Alabama destroy unbeaten Notre Dame in the college championship game and thought if Brady and the Patriots can play at the level that the Tide played at for three more games then they will finally get that fourth Lombardi. The Texans will play a better game than they did in the Monday night thrashing a month ago. They have to play better. But better won't be good enough if the Pats play at their peak. And that is where the questions come in. Can Talib be the shutdown corner I've heard tell of? Can the secondary not give up the big plays? Can Ridley hold on to the ball? Can rookies Jones and Hightower rise up under the playoff pressure? Can Brady stop throwing the bad pick in a playoff game? Can Gosty make a clutch playoff kick? I think the answers to most of those questions, at least for this week, are yes. Patriots 34, Texans 20.


NFC

Packers (12-5) at 49ers (11-4-1): The classic battle of the wide-open offense against the smash-mouth defense. I'm really looking forward to this game. The numbers favor the Niners in almost every category. They are the fourth ranked D in the league while the Pack is in the middle of the pack. The Niners also have one of the best rushing attacks in the game. If Frank Gore dominates the Green Bay D and keeps Aaron Rodgers off the field then the Pack is in trouble. But that's where San Fran quarterback Colin Kaepernick comes in. Coach Jim Harbaugh with his rather large ego wants to show that he made the right choice by benching Alex Smith in favor of his guy. So he will have Kaepernick throwing. Since Kaepernick took over the starting job Gore has not had a 100-yard rushing game. He had three before that. I think the Niners throw the ball more than they should and that opens the door for Rodgers and his array of receiving weapons. The Packers are a veteran team that will not be afraid to win on the road. Packers 27, Niners 23.

 

Seahawks (12-5) at Falcons (13-3): The Seahawks are the surprise team in the NFL's elite eight. And they just might be the most dangerous. If Pete Carroll wins a Super Bowl ... What was I saying? Right. Seahawks vs. the Falcons. Seattle is a team that plays to its strengths. They have the best runner in the game right now, Marshawn Lynch. And they run him right down their opponent's throat. And then they have rookie QB Russell Wilson make some plays. On defense they are just nasty everywhere. They play like the old Miami Hurricanes defense. Like criminals. They are intimidating. And if there's one team in the NFL the past few years that can be intimidated it's Matt Ryan's Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons have the sixth best passing attack in the league with Roddy White, Julio Jones, and future hall of famer Tony Gonzalez catching Ryan's passes. But Seattle has the best pass defense in the game. What else do the Falcons have? They are 29th in the league in rushing and 23rd against the pass and 21st against the run. That's not good. The Falcons will be one and done again. Seahawks 30, Falcons 21.

Wild and crazy stuff

If you are a fan of the NFL the next two weekends are as good as it gets. Sure, championship weekend is a lot of fun with the best of the AFC and NFC squaring off and of course Super Bowl Sunday is a national holiday. But Wild Card weekend and the Divisional Round are the two best weekends of football. Two games Saturday. Two games Sunday. Grab a beer, some snacks, and your spot on the couch.

AFC



Cincinnati (10-6) at Houston (12-4): The Texans were the team to beat in the AFC for the first three months of the season. In December, they just turned into a beaten team. They lost three of their last four games and looked bad doing it. They were stomped by playoff team New England, Minnesota, and Indy. Can they pull it together for the playoffs? I think so, but the Bengals will certainly make it difficult for them. The Texans are 8th in the league in rushing yards and seventh in the league against the run. And they are solid in the passing game. All the talk is about Matt Schaub but he is not the key. Schaub will be lucky to get out of this game alive against the Cincy pass rush led by Geno Atkins and Michael Johnson. The key is Arian Foster. He is the best player on the field for either team (slight edge over A.J. Green). If Foster can dominate on the ground and make life easy for Schaub then Houston, with the home field, should be able to get the win. Cincy's best chance rests with Green. He's one of the top playmakers in the game. The Bengals need QB Andy Dalton and Green to have a huge game. That's going to be tough to do with J.J. Watt getting in the way. Texans 27, Bengals 24.






Indianapolis (11-5) at Baltimore (10-6): You couldn't write a script better than this. Colts coach Chuck Pagano, who missed most of the season being treated for leukemia, has returned to the sideline just in time for the playoffs. Playoffs? Playoffs? Yes, last year's worst team won a very surprising eleven games and is in the playoffs. And they are playing the Ravens in Baltimore. The team that Pagano was a defensive coach with for four years. And the Ravens' Ray Lewis, who is very close with Pagano, has announced that he will retire when the Ravens season ends. Talk about your story lines. The Ravens are like the Texans, they have stumbled towards the playoffs, losing four of their last five games. And their defense is no longer elite. Old and injured, but not elite. So the question is can the Colts led by rookie QB Andrew Luck and a young group of players go on the road and beat the veteran, this-might-be-our-last-chance Ravens? I don't think so. Ray Lewis won't be winning a title in his last game, but he won't be losing at home either. Ravens 23, Colts 17.

NFC





Minnesota (10-6) at Green Bay (11-5): This is the one man vs. the team game. Vikings running back Adrian Peterson came back from major knee surgery to post one of the greatest seasons in NFL history, coming up just nine yards short of the single-season record for yards rushing. He is the Vikings. Just like Aaron Rodgers is the Packers. It's a great running game vs. a great passing game. The difference is that Rodgers has a lot more help around him than Peterson. Jennings, Cobb, Jones, Nelson, Finley. And the Green Bay defense is better than the Minnesota defense. And the game is being played at Lambeau Field. The Pack won the title two years ago. They are still a serious contender. Packers 30, Vikings 20.




Seattle (11-5) at Washington (10-6): Two of the most exciting and surprising teams in the league meet up in the first round. It should be a great game. It's a rare thing when two rookie quarterbacks play each other in the playoffs. RG3 and Russell Wilson are rookies in name only. They are the "new breed" of quarterback that can run and throw on a dime. Of course there have always been quarterbacks like that (ever hear of Randall Cunningham) but that's OK. It makes for a good headline. All the attention will be on  the quarterbacks but it's the running backs that will decide the game. The two runners that I had on my fantasy team -- Seattle's beast Marshawn Lynch vs. Washington's beast Alfred Morris -- will set the tone early and often. It's a tough decision as to which back will prevail. I'll go with the home team again. Redskins 21, Seahawks 20.

Quoth the Raven, nevermore

The Ravens' Ray Lewis announced yesterday that he is retiring after the playoffs. Lewis is a first-ballot hall of famer. Maybe the greatest linebacker ever. When he's playing the Patriots and trying to kill Tom Brady I can't stand him. The rest of the time you gotta love the guy. Except for that little murder that he may or may not have been involved in, Lewis is an inspiring person. He talks about God like a preacher. He's a mentor to young players and a force for good in society. And he hits like nobody's business. He's an original.

He even makes an intro for a video game awesome ...

Week 12 rewind

When you beat your division rival 49-19 at their place on Thanksgiving night and no one gets hurt there's nothing to put in the weekly "bad" category. It really was all good. The only thing missing was Gronk joining Brady and Vince chomping on a turkey leg after the game.

So there's really not much need to look back at last Thursday's game against the Jets except when you are feeling blue and need a good laugh. Then you should look back at the Sanchez play. Other than that it's time to look ahead to the final five games of the regular season. The division is just about wrapped up but there is still a very tight battle for the second seed and a first-round bye.

Let's assume that the 10-1 Texans hold on to the top spot in the AFC. It's a pretty good bet. The question is who will be #2? At the moment it is the 9-2 Ravens. Right on their heels are the 8-3 Pats and 8-3 Broncos. How important is it to get the two seed, a week off, and home playoff game? Well, if you ask the New York Giants it's not that important at all. But the odds of making the AFC title game are much better if all you have to do is win one home game to get there. If the Giants want to try to win another Super Bowl by going 9-7 and playing three road playoff games let them.

The Ravens have stolen several close wins (like Sunday's game against the Chargers), but considering the number of key injuries the team has had on defense their 9-2 record is impressive. They hold the tie-breaker against the Pats with their win earlier in the year so they really have a two-game lead over them. That's a problem. But the Pats beat the Broncos so they have the tie-breaker against them. If all three teams ended up tied then it would go to the "conference record" tie-breaker. Right now the Pats and Ravens only have one conference loss while the Broncos have two. Who will blink first?

Here are the remaining games for each team. The games listed in green are the ones where the chance of winning has to be considered better than 80 percent. The games in red are the ones where the chance of winning is no better than 50 percent. The games in yellow are the ones that fall in between:

                    PATRIOTS                     RAVENS                        BRONCOS
Wk 13          @-Miami                       H-Pittsburgh                H-Tampa Bay
Wk 14          H-Houston                    @-Washington            @-Oakland
Wk 15          H-San Fran                   H-Denver                     @-Baltimore  
Wk 16          @-Jacksonville            H-NY Giants                H-Cleveland
Wk 17          H-Miami                        @-Cincy                        H-Kansas City

Let's go week by week.

Week 13: This weekend each team has a tough -- but winnable -- game. The Pats go down to Miami where they have had their problems over the years. And Miami is coming off a strong game against Seattle. But can the Dolphins keep pace with Brady and the offense? No. The Ravens host their arch rivals the Steelers. Pittsburgh is banged up and coming off an ugly loss to Cleveland. The Steelers will be focused and motivated to save their playoff hopes. But is it enough to go into Baltimore and win on the road? No. The Broncos host the 6-5 Bucs. Denver had problems against the worst-in-the-league Chiefs last Sunday while Tampa almost beat the 10-1 Falcons. The Bucs have the best run D in the league. I think Tampa forces Manning to make some mistakes and pulls off the upset. Three very close games that really could go either way. (Ravens 10-2, Patriots 9-3, Broncos 8-4).

Week 14: The Pats are at a severe disadvantage this week. Even though they are the only one of the three contenders at home, they have to play the Texans on Monday Night Football. It is the biggest test for the Pats this year. Houston is third in the league in total offense with a balanced attack. But the Pats are first in the league. It's on the other side of the ball that the Texans have the advantage. They are 6th in total defense. The Pats are way down the list at 27th. The Pats have to have this game to get the second seed and I think they rise to the occasion and get it. They are more accustomed to the big stage than the Texans. But confidence is not high. It's definitely a "red" game. The Ravens and Broncos go on the road against two average teams. The Ravens take on RG3 and the Skins while Manning faces off against Oakland. Those are tough road games and its very possible one of them (the Ravens) could stumble. But for the sake of argument let's say the Pats win a huge home game and the Ravens and Broncos eke out tough road wins. (Ravens 11-2, Patriots 10-3, Broncos 9-4).

Week 15: This is the week that will decide it. The Broncos go to Baltimore and if the Ravens can win they pretty much lock up the second seed because they will have beaten both the Pats and the Broncos. But what if Manning and the Denver offense can exploit the aging Raven D and get the win? That will hand the Ravens their third loss and more importantly their second in the conference. And if the Pats actually did beat the Texans the week before then all they would need to do is win a home game to pull into a tie with two weeks to go. Problem is that home game is against the San Francisco 49ers. The team with the best defense in the game. And the best rushing attack. It should be a heck of Sunday Night game. But can the Pats beat the Texans and the Niners in back-to-back weeks? I don't think so. And if they are going to lose one then the one against the NFC team is the one to lose. (Ravens, 11-3, Patriots 10-4, Broncos 10-4).

Week 16: The Ravens are at a disadvantage this week. They get the defending champion Giants at home while the Pats go on the road against the Jags and the Broncos host the Browns. Those are pretty close to sure wins for the Pats and Broncos. I think the long-haul of the season begins to catch up with the Ravens and they get beat by Little Manning and the Giants who will be fighting to win their division. Three-way tie with one week to go for the two seed. (Ravens 11-4, Patriots 11-4, Broncos 11-4).

Week 17: The Ravens are again at a disadvantage, only because the Pats and Broncos have pretty easy games at home to finish out the season. The Pats host Miami on what will probably be a frigid Saturday afternoon. The Broncos have an even easier game, hosting the soon-to-have-the-#1-pick Chiefs. Those are very likely wins, putting each team at 12-4. The Ravens have to go to Cincinnati to play the Bengals who will probably be battling for one of the wild card spots. Let's say Andy Dalton and AJ Green stay hot and hand the Ravens their third straight loss to finish 11-5. The Pats and Broncos finish tied but the Pats would get the second seed because they have the head-to-head victory. (Patriots 12-4 and the #2 seed, Broncos 12-4, Ravens 11-5).

That's one possible outcome. Of course it really is impossible to pick a winner in Broncos-Ravens, or Broncos-Bucs, or Ravens-Giants, or Pats-Niners. That's what will make these last few weeks so much fun. The Patriots, Broncos, and Ravens will lock up their division in the next two weeks, but that doesn't mean they won't have a lot to play for down the stretch. A week off and a home playoff game means a lot to all three.

Broken clutch

WEEK 6
Pats' ball with about seven minutes to play up by six (or three or five or whatever). A time-consuming drive by the offense right here that ends with points puts you in a great position to win. What happens? The offense usually gets a first down ,, maybe two ... but then punts, eating up almost no time.

Pats' somewhat shaky defense comes on to the field with five minutes to go. They need a stop here. What happens? Defense does its job and everyone breathes a sigh of relief. A big sigh of relief.

Brady and the unstoppable offense get the ball back ... this time with just about four minutes to play. The offense doesn't even need to score here. Just a few first downs and Brady can take a knee. What happens? Three-and-out. That's what.

Uh oh. Defense comes back out on the field with about two-and-one-half minutes left. Up by less than a touchdown. Can they make one more stop and win the game? What happens? Well, you know what happens. The opposing QB leads his team pretty-easily down the field as the Pats' secondary runs around looking lost. Game over.

That was the scenario that played out yesterday for the Pats in Seattle. Just like it was earlier in the year against the Ravens and in last year's Super Bowl and the game against the Giants before that and the ...

Brady said after the Sunday night loss to the Ravens "We need to start winning close games." Yesterday was a great chance to start doing that. Instead, it was just another great game wasted. It was a great game. Just like the Ravens game was ... and the Super Bowl ... and the ...

The 3-3 Pats have lost three games by a total of just four points. For comparison, the Pats' next opponent the Jets, also 3-3, lost one game by 34 points. The record is .500 but the Patriots are clearly better than that.  Just like the 5-1 Ravens are clearly not that good. But the Ravens have been able to do something the Pats haven't ... win close games. Maybe even steal a few. That's what teams that get a first-round bye do to get to 13-3 or 14-2. And that's what teams that win Super Bowls do.

As good as the Pats are, until they can start closing out tight games they are not going to take that next step.

They might not get a chance this weekend against the Jets. I think the Pats run all over them. (Although I thought they would beat Seattle, too). But there'll be another game soon where the Pats have the ball and the lead with seven minutes to play. That would be a good time for one of the best offenses to put together one of those 14-play touchdown drives that it does so easily in the first three quarters of the game.

Going fourth

NFL coaches like to look at the 16-game season in four quarters. Now that each team has played four games, time has expired on the first quarter. So who is looking good at the quarter pole? And who is fading fast? My rankings go to 12 (not 11) because that's how many teams make the playoffs. There are some surprise teams not on the list like the Saints, Steelers, Lions, and Jets. Well, maybe not the Jets. And there are some surprise teams on the list like Arizona, Washington, and Denver.

It's only four games, but with a few exceptions these teams will be your playoff competitors come January. That's how important a good start is in the NFL.

1. San Francisco 49ers (3-1): They aren't one of the three remaining unbeaten teams, but they are the only team that could probably beat all three. The Niners stumbled against the Vikings but are still the most balanced team in the league. The San Fran D is a beast and the offense -- with running back Frank Gore -- is good enough to get the job done. The Niners are -- at the moment -- the best team in the NFC

2. Houston Texans (4-0): The Texans are -- at the moment -- the best team in the AFC. Houston will be sitting atop most power rankings after four weeks, And rightfully so. I just think the Niners D is better. And the Niners have more experience. But the Texans have a better quarterback in Matt Schaub and a very good runner in Arian Foster. And they haven't missed Mario Williams all that much, have they?

3. Atlanta Falcons (4-0): The Falcons are a little lucky to still be unbeaten. A Cam Newton fumble gave Atlanta new life and Matt Ryan and the offense were more than glad to take advantage of it with a great game-winning drive. Matty "Ice" looks like he has moved into the elite category. The Falcons are scoring 31 points a game and allowing 19. That adds up to 4-0.

4. Baltimore Ravens (3-1): The Ravens are off to a 3-1 start without Terrell Suggs, one of their leaders and one of the most ferocious pass rushers in the game. They were outplayed by the Patriots for a good chunk of their game and had to scrape and claw to beat the lowly Browns but player for player the Ravens are as good as anyone in the AFC. Torrey Smith is now one of the most dangerous weapons in the game. And Joe Flacco is off to a great start so far. We'll see if that lasts.

5. New England Patriots (2-2): The Pats would be ahead of the Ravens if they had held on to that 9-point lead. But they didn't. The Pats -- even without Aaron Hernandez -- have the best offense in the league. Brady has been at his best. But they haven't been able to win the close games and are sitting at 2-2. So what are the Pats doing in the top 5 instead of the 4-0 Cardinals? Well, this is a Patriots blog. And, honestly, do you really think if the two teams played again this weekend the Patriots wouldn't win? Really?

6. Green Bay Packers (2-2): My preseason #1 pick should be 3-1. Everyone knows that except Pete Carroll. The Packers paid the ultimate price for the fake refs ... a win. And they almost lost to the Saints in a wild one. The Packers are like the Patriots. They can score almost at will and their defense -- which should be better than it is -- gives up way too many big plays. But Aaron Rodgers -- like Brady -- has that look in his eye that he will not be denied. And they are coached by one of the classiest guys walking the sidelines.

7. Arizona Cardinals (4-0): Records don't mean everything. The Cardinals are unbeaten but they were lucky to beat the Pats (yes, the Cards D played great) and were really lucky to beat Miami. Sure, no one even had the Cadinals in their top 20 heading into the season that I saw so #7 is pretty good. The defense is young and fast but I think the offense is playing over its head. Every year a team starts off 4-0 or 3-1 and ends up missing the playoffs. The Cards are that team this year.

8. New York Giants (2-2): If you saw the Giants get beat by Philly you might not think they were top 10 worthy. But they are. The best pass rush. A two-time Super Bowl champ at QB. A hall of fame coach. A tough as nails run game. Experience all over the field. The Giants may only win 10 or 11 games but if that's enough to get in the playoffs then look out.

9. Chicago Bears (3-1): The Bears are nothing if not entertaining. Kind of like an episode of the "Kardashians." There's a lot of bickering and falling down, but then they dress up for prime time and kick the crap out of Dallas. Jay Cutler (playing the role of Kim) goes from bumping his lineman in frustration to tossing bombs all over Jerry Jones's coliseum. Brandon Marshall makes them a much different team offensively. When Forte gets back they will be even tougher. Of course, they still have Lovie as their coach.

10. Denver Broncos (2-2): There's only one reason the Broncos are on this list, bumping off 3-1 San Diego and Cincy. Peyton Manning. He's looked pretty darn good for an old guy who missed a year because his neck had to be fused back together. Very good actually. He has a young, talented group of receivers, a good running game, and a pretty good defense. That should get them to the top of the AFC West even with John Fox as coach.

11. Philadelphia Eagles (3-1): The Dream Team is back! Sort of. Michael Vick and his cast of stars have won three games while racking up an amazing number of turnovers in those games. It wasn't till they beat the Giants that I took them seriously. Till then they were stealing games from the likes of the Browns. But they are a talented team with a lot of experience and if they can just stop making mistakes (a big if) then they might finally make the dream come true for Philly fans.

12. Washington Redskins (2-2): RG3. No. It's not the new Nike sneaker (yet). It's the Skins saviour at QB. Robert Griffin III is this year's phenom rookie quarterback. Maybe even better than last year's model, Cam Newton. Griffin is fun to watch and the Skins are getting better on defense so they make the third NFC East team on the list. Yes. It's the toughest division by far.

Dishonorable mention: The 0-4 New Orleans Saints. Now we know what things would have looked like around here if Belichick had been suspended for a year over Spygate. Whew. The Saints continue to score tons of points thanks to Drew Brees. But they can't stop anyone and they look lost when the games get tight. Sean Peyton is clearly missed. As Belichick would have been. Whew.

Week 3 rewind

At the start of the 2011 season the Patriots hadn't lost back-to-back games in almost a decade. After Sunday's last-second loss to the Ravens it has happened two years in a row. Last year the Pats came out of their bye week and dropped games to the Steelers and Giants. They didn't lose again till the Super Bowl. This year they've dropped two consecutive close ones. They probably won't win their next 10 games like last year but they should win a lot more than they lose the rest of the way.

The wild and crazy loss to the Ravens was looking all good entering the second quarter Sunday night. After that it was about 50-50 good and bad.

GOOD

• Tom Brady. The future hall of famer added another gem to his resume. He was in total control in a hostile environment. He spread the ball around, got rid of it quickly, made very few unforced errors, and had the team in position for a huge road win against a conference rival. Sadly his defense couldn't wrap it up for him.
• Brandon Lloyd. Lost in all the "what's up with Welker?" talk has been the excellent play of the new #85. After three games he's tied for sixth in the league with 22 catches. He has shown he can run the crisp routes that Brady demands and his ability to make the sideline grab and tap his toes is amazing. He now needs to get into the end zone.
• Wes Welker and Julian Edelman. Or is it Edelman first and Welker second? Of course it's Welker first. He's still the best slot receiver in the game. His role was reduced in the first two weeks because tight end Aaron Hernandez is the second-best slot receiver in the game. There are only so many passes to go around. Welker will catch 90 balls before it's all said and done. Edelman won't catch nearly that many, but he had a nice touchdown against the Ravens D and his versatility makes him very valuable.
• Bill Belichick. OK, not the part where he tugged on the ref's jersey. The part where a week after his team stunk it up in the home opener he and his staff had them ready for the challenge against a great Baltimore team. The Pats didn't win, but it wasn't because of the coaching.
• Offensive line. It looks like Brian Waters isn't coming back. But it also looks like the line will be able to hold its own without him. The line hasn't been spectacular, but it has been solid. And barring injury it should keep getting better.

BAD

• Play calling. Sometimes Josh McDaniels is just a little too clever for his own good. On the Pats's drive after the Ravens' first score Brady had moved the offense to midfield when McDaniels called a direct snap to Woody/reverse to Edelman play. The play lost 13 yards, killed the drive, and soon the Ravens were scoring again to take the lead. Don't get tricky with the lead in Baltimore. Save that for Miami.
• Run defense. What run defense? There was very little of it after the first quarter. Big Vince and Kyle Love got pushed around and linebackers Spikes and Mayo were constantly guessing wrong. I don't think you'll see that happen again any time soon.
• Pass rush. What pass rush? Jones and Ninko were held in check all night. Flacco never had to flinch. From the replays it looked like Jones and Ninko were literally held all night thanks to the fake refs not calling offensive holding. But even if that was the case the defense has to find some way to get pressure on the QB. 
• Officiating. Well, we don't have to worry about that anymore. 

The Pats head to Buffalo. A place where they lost last year and a place where I felt before the season started they will lose again. I hope I'm wrong. It's an early must-win game.

Close calls

WEEK 3
"We need to start winning close games."

That was Tom Brady's spot-on analysis after the Pats lost an entertaining and excruciating 31-30 brawl to the Ravens to drop to 1-2 on the young season.

Rich, my co-worker and most loyal reader (OK, my only loyal reader) asked last week "Are the Patriots still clutch?" It was a good question then and an even better question today. The answer at the moment has to be... no. Sure, Brady and the offense staged a great two-minute drive to retake the lead at the end of the first half last night. Last year there was a great comeback against Dallas and before the Ravens missed that kick in the AFC title game Brady lead the Pats on a great march capped by his gutsy lunge into the end zone. But when it really counts. When they really need a stop. Or a first down. They just can't get it done.

The Blabosphere will be buzzing with talk of replacement refs and bad calls. There were lots of those, for sure. But the officiating didn't decide the outcome of the game. It may have caused a lot of cases of heartburn for players and fans alike, but it was equally bad for both teams. The game -- as it always is -- was decided by the coaches and players. And once again, those wearing the Pats' logo came up short when it counted.

It's the second week in a row that the Patriots lost a close one. It's been a problem for a few years now. Finishing. It's what all great teams do. The Patriots knew how to finish when they were winning Super Bowls.  Almost all of those players are gone now. Belichick's new model has yet to master that skill.

The Patriots may not know how to finish, but they are often very good at starting. The Pats came out of the gate looking to make a statement after their sloppy play last week and only the most negative of Pats' fans didn't think they would. They always do. And they did it again last night. The defense -- which had been rock solid for two weeks -- looked stout again. The Ravens' first three possessions in front of a fired up home crowd went punt, interception, punt. Stud running back Ray Rice could do nothing. Brady and the offense used that momentum to build a 13-0 lead. As the Ravens faced a 3rd-and-6 at their own 22 to start the second quarter things were looking very good. And then the fake refs began what would be a long, long night of questionable, puzzling, and laughable calls.

Flacco came under pressure and dumped the ball off to Rice who had Jerod Mayo on his heels. The ball fell harmlessly incomplete and it looked like the Pats' D had stopped the Ravens on four straight drives. Then the yellow flag hit the turf and the Ravens had a first down and some much needed momentum. Two things would continue to happen from that moment on... the Ravens offense would shred the Pats' D almost at will and the fake refs would throw enough flags to make everyone watching feel pretty ill.

Vince Wilfork said after the game that the erratic officiating made it hard for the defense to play their game. It made then tentative. I love Big Vince but that's pretty lame. It didn't stop Ed Reed or Ray Lewis. And it really shouldn't have anything to do with stopping the run. The Pats' D hadn't given up 300 yards in either of their first two games. Last night the Ravens piled up more than 500 yards of offense. It's a close call as to which was worse... the fake refs or the Pats' defense.

And yet each time Baltimore would take the lead, Brady and the offense would have a response and drive for a huge score. It was as good a game that the offense has played in a while, especially considering the loss of Aaron Hernandez and most "experts" predicting the offense would struggle to find a way to replace him. They found a way and with just more than 14 minutes to play held a 30-21 lead. Time for another chance to close out a game. The Pats' D forced a Ravens punt and the offense picked up a couple of key first downs. Mesko dropped a beautiful punt down to the Baltimore 8 with seven and a half minutes to play. The Pats were all set up to finish out a huge road win.

The Ravens, sometimes with the help of the fake refs and sometimes with the help of the Pats' D, drove the ball 92 yards for a touchdown with four minutes to play. 30-28. Time for Brady and the offense to get a few first downs and close out the game. Which they couldn't quite do despite some serious help from the fake refs. Mesko had to punt at the two minute warning, giving the Ravens the ball at their 21 with 1:55 to play.

Everyone in my den agreed it was time for the defense to finally ... finally ... make a stand and close out a big win. But as we have seen many times before the defense couldn't finish. It wasn't even close. Flacco drove the Ravens down the field with ease to set up the winning field goal.

Unlike last year's AFC title game, this time the Raven kicker put the ball through the uprights (barely) and Baltimore won a hard fought and hard earned victory.

It was another close call for the Pats. As Brady said, it's time the Pats to make some of those calls go their way.

Heroes and villains

The Patriots' main rival during their Super Bowl years was the Indianapolis Colts. Sure, the Jets were the hated division enemy from New York. The Steelers were the greatest franchise in NFL history that couldn't beat the Pats when it counted. The Chargers were the Norv-led contenders who could never quite stop beating themselves. But year after year it was Peyton Manning and the Colts that stood between the Patriots and the Super Bowl.

That era has long passed, coming to a conclusion in the Arizona desert in the winter of '08. The Patriots are still Super Bowl contenders but the Colts have tumbled to the AFC depths while Manning is throwing passes in the mile-high air of Denver. Many would say that Skinny Rex and the dysfunctional Jets have taken over the Colts' role as the Pats' arch enemy. Not so. The Jets aren't good enough (yet) or nasty enough to fill that role.

But Ray Lewis and the Baltimore Ravens are.

The two best teams in the AFC (sorry Steelers) square off again tonight in the biggest game of the week and one of the biggest games of the year. It's not just a chance for both teams to get back on track after disappointing losses last week. It's a game that could -- and probably will -- decide where the two teams will play when they meet again in January. It was the same with the Pats and the Colts. The Pats would win the regular season match-up, thus making Manning and the Colts come to frigid Gillette to lose in the playoffs. It wasn't until the Colts starting winning in the regular season that they were able to make the Pats come to the comforts of the Dome where they were finally able to slay their enemy.

Every champion needs a rival. Every hero needs a villain. Now it's the Ravens' turn. They have been preparing for this role for years.

Most football fans had a bias against the Ravens from the moment their hideous Edgar Allan Poe logo was created in 1996. The recently deceased Art Modell moved the beloved Cleveland Browns right out from under the pug noses of the Dog Pound and took them to Baltimore back in the day when NFL owners were treating their teams like fast-food franchises. Load up the truck in the middle of the night, move to a new city, slap a new logo on it ... instant franchise! Modell may have been one of the key builders of the NFL, but in the eyes of many fans he was scum for moving the Browns to Baltimore. His crime paid off a few years later with a Super Bowl title, lead by loudmouths (and hall of famers to be) Ray Lewis and Shannon Sharpe. The brash-talking Ravens were born.

The Patriots and the Ravens have played each other just eight times in the nearly 20 years the purple and black have been in existence. And the Pats have won seven of those eight. Each time the Ravens have come into the game thinking they were the better team and each time (but once) the Pats crushed them one way or another. Their first meeting was back in '96, with the Pats winning a wild one. I barely remember the game other than it was a Drew Bledsoe-Vinnie Testaverde gunslinger battle. The Pats would go on to an unexpected trip to the Super Bowl that year while the Ravens won just four games in their inaugural season.

The next meeting was at the end of the 1999 season. The end of the Pete Carroll disaster. The Patriots thrashed the Ravens 20-3 in the regular season finale to finish at 8-8. Fortunately it did not save Pete Carroll's job. The Ravens also finished 8-8. The next year they would win the Super Bowl ... and the Pats would begin the Belichick era. The next time the two teams would meet -- in 2004 -- both franchises were sporting Super Bowl rings and cocky attitudes. The Ravens and Ray Lewis came into Gillette on a cold, rainy Thanksgiving weekend and the 9-1 Patriots dominated them 24-3. Corey Dillon carried the ball 30 times in the mud for 123 yards, a preview of what he would do in the playoffs.

The Pats-Ravens rivalry really started to reach a boil in 2007. The Patriots came into Baltimore at 11-0 and the talk of an unbeaten season was everywhere. Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, and the Ravens were determined to put a stop to all the talk. And they almost did. It was a true heavyweight battle, with each team exchanging hay makers. The score was 10-10 at the half. 17-17 after three. The Ravens held a 24-20 lead with just more than three minutes left to play when Brady led one of his greatest -- and luckiest -- game-winning drives. The Ravens D stopped Brady on a fourth-down play but the officials said one of the Baltimore coaches had called a timeout before the ball had been snapped. Brady got a new life and took advantage of it, connecting with Jabbar Gaffney a few plays later for the winning touchdown. I still pop the tape of that game into the old VCR everyone now and then. It's a classic.

As was the next meeting in 2009. The Patriots prevailed 27-21 in a game of hard hits and cheap shots. It's the game where Belichick tells Raven receiver Derrick Mason to shut the eff up and the game where Terrell Suggs (T-Sizzle. Now that's the nickname of a villain) was called for roughing Brady and whined about the "Brady rule." Once again the loudmouth Ravens left the field steaming and vowing revenge.

They would finally get it a few months later at Gillette in the playoffs. A game I would prefer to forget. Ray Rice burst through the Pats D line for an 83-yard touchdown before I even had my first drink and it just got worse from there. Ravens 33, Patriots 14. It was a drubbing. A beating. A whuppin'. The Pats had it coming and the Ravens were anxious to deliver it.

The two met again the following October with a lot of experts questioning if the Pats had what it took to ever beat the Ravens again. They did. It was another close game and Gosty won it with a clutch field goal with more than a minute to play for the 23-20 final. The same score for the last game the two teams played ... the AFC title game at Gillette last January that the Ravens still can't believe they lost. Another classic battle that came down to a kicker, this time Baltimore's Billy Cundiff and this time the kick was missed.

Other than the drubbing in the playoffs the Patriots have always come out on top. How can it be a rivalry if one team keeps winning? It's like the Sox and the Yankees. But even a one-sided rivalry can be a heated one. The hatred and resentment of the team that always loses (and their fans) keeps building and building. The Patriots (as they were for the Colts) are the Ravens' white whale. Tonight gives them another chance to lunge a harpoon into the chest of Brady and Belichick.

Dan Shaughnessy says Pats' fans don't hate the Ravens, once again reminding us why sportswriters should never speak for the fans. He says Baltimore is too likable a city. Which I found out when I went to a Ravens game last year. But it's not New England vs. Baltimore. It's Patriots vs. Ravens. It's never a regional thing. New York's a great city. I love going there. It's not that the Yankees are from New York. It's that they win all the time. You think people hate the Celts because they are from Boston? Not really. It's that they are sick of them. Just like football fans across the country are sick of Brady and the Pats. They could be the Minnesota Patriots and people would hate them.

Dan says there's no hate like there is for the Jets. Well, maybe he should have sat in the stands of the AFC title game last January to see how Pats' fans feel about the Ravens. Or maybe he should come sit with me and my nephew Pete on my couch tonight.

The Ravens? They are a great team with great players. But they talk too much. They whine a lot. We hate 'em. They're the new villain. And they are perfect for the role.

One game at a time

The Cowboys and Giants meet tonight to kick off the 2012 NFL season. Even if the Sox weren't staging their own version of "The Poseidon Adventure," I would be psyched for this weekend. I don't paint my face (Not that there's anything wrong with that. No, of course not.) or throw things when the team I root for loses, but from September through (hopefully) the first Sunday in February the Pats and the NFL are a big part of life. It is the best entertainment I get all year. Even better than "Game of Thrones."

The Pats start another run at Lombardi #4. They have come soooooo close a few times. And as long as Brady and Belichick are in place, Pats fans will continue to get the best show around. We know it will end someday, so we enjoy every second of it.

Predicting at the end of summer what a team's record will at the start of winter is mostly folly. You may know what the team you root for is capable of, but it's impossible to know how good or bad other teams will be. Who thought the Niners would be so good last year? And who knows what Buffalo or Indy can do this year? But that's the fun of predicting. Everyone is right before the games begin.

Two years ago I thought the Pats would go 13-3. (Yes, optimistic after they got smoked by the Ravens in the playoffs, but if you can't be optimistic in September then when can you be?) The Pats went 14-2. Before last season I thought the Pats would go 12-4. They went 13-3. I see a trend.

WEEK 1 @ Tennessee
The Pats start on the road again. It worked out well last year with a big win in Miami. This time they take on the Titans, a team they haven't seen in a few years. Jeff Fisher was the coach back then. He's gone. As is a lot of the Titans' swagger. Tennessee finished 9-7 last year even with a very subpar performance by RB Chris Johnson, so they are no easy win. Quarterback Jake Locker starts his second season as the starter. If he rolls up more than 300 yards against the Pats D then I'll be worried. It's an interesting first week matchup. Still, it's an opener the Pats should win.

WEEK 2 vs. Arizona
Not the most exciting of home openers. But it will be the first tailgate and that's all that matters. And it will be my first chance to yell "Nice throw to Welker, Tommy!" And it will be the first home win of the year. The Cardinals are worse than the Titans. Much worse. Again, it's a team the Pats aren't very familiar with. But, again, that should not be a problem. Pats should start off 2-0. Hope it's a perfect September day.

WEEK 3 @ Baltimore
Now the fun begins. A rematch of the AFC title game that ended with the Ravens kicker missing an easy game-tying field goal. Ray Lewis and co. are still pissed. This will be a big early test for both teams. A Pats road win against Baltimore would be huge. And would give them the advantage come playoff tie-breaker time. (Yes, Week 3 is not to early to think about that stuff). T Sizzle won't be on the field terrorizing Brady. The Ravens D is old. Gronk and Hernandez are not. I like the Pats here.

WEEK 4 @ Buffalo
The Pats blew a 21-0 lead against the Bills on the road in Week 3 last year. The Bills fell apart after that while the Pats went to the Super Bowl. Buffalo landed the big free agent in Mario Williams and will enter the season with one of the best pass rushes in the game. Bill Belichick's team very rarely -- as in never -- has letdowns after big wins. But I think that happens here. Bills hand the Pats their first loss for the second year in a row.

WEEK 5 vs. Denver
I had hoped the renewal of the Manning-Brady battle would be on a beautiful early October night. Perfect for football and tailgating. Close. It's at 4 in the afternoon on Oct. 7th. That works. Tailgating begins at 9 a.m. There's no way of knowing how well Manning will be playing this early into the season. Probably pretty well. But not well enough to beat the Pats at home in the game of the week. Manning might be ready for that but the rest of the Broncos showed in the playoffs last year that they aren't. Pats get to 4-1.

WEEK 6 @ Seattle
The fourth road game in the first six weeks takes New England on their only voyage out west. Waiting for them will be old pumped-and-jacked friend Pete Carroll. Why do I think Belichick will run the score up in this one? The Pats are one of the few teams that have had some success going out to Seattle to play. This year should be no different against a weak version of the Seahawks. Something like Pats 52, Seahawks 13.

WEEK 7 vs. NY Jets
Let me start practicing... Teee-bow! Teeee-bow! Teeeeee-bow!. The beauty of it is the Foxborough fans can start chanting that while Sanchez is in the game to annoy him and then turn it into a mock cheer when Tebow comes in and throws a pick. Thanks Rex. Tebow aside, this will be a great game. Belichick and the Pats reasserted themselves against Ryan and his gang last year. Ryan will be doing a lot of talking before the game. Not after. Pats go to 6-1.

WEEK 8 @ St. Louis
I love the NFC West. Cardinals and Seahawks and Rams. Oh my. Another place the Patriots play well even when the Rams are good. This time they aren't. But they aren't playing it in St. Louis. For the second time in a few years the Pats are headed to London to play a real game. I don't think the NFL is really serious about this expanding the game to Europe nonsense. If they did they would have the Pats-Broncos game in London. Pats vs. Rams. A game only a Pats fan could love. Blowout. 7-1.

WEEK 9 Bye
As if the schedule wasn't setup perfectly enough, the Pats get the ideal middle-of-the-season week off. They'll get a chance to recover from their trip overseas and get a chance to prepare for a second half schedule that will be a little tougher than the first eight. And  I'll get a chance to gather my layers for five cold-weather home games down the stretch. Unless this global warming thing continues.

WEEK 10 vs. Buffalo
An extra week to prepare didn't work out last year when the Pats lost their next two games after the bye. A rarity in all ways during the Belichick years. The coach will be able to drive that point home and the Pats will be ready to go. Avenging their only loss up to this point, Brady, Welker, Lloyd, Gronk, and Hernandez take it up and down the field. 8-1.

WEEK 11 vs. Indianapolis
After the bye the Pats get back-to-back home games. Against Buffalo and Indy. How nice. The Colts will be in the middle of their first year with Andrew Luck as the new Peyton Manning. The Colts weren't too pretty in Manning's first year and that team had more talent around him. I don't care how much Luck the Colts have, this game should be an easy one. Yes, Pats get to 9-1.

WEEK 12 @ NY Jets
I will be staking out my seat in my sister's basement up in Maine around 7 p.m. with pie and beer in hand. I want a good view of this one. It doesn't matter if the Pats come into this Thanksgiving night game at 9-1 or 6-4, this will be another epic chapter in the rivalry. (They won't be 6-4). The Jets will either be battling with the Pats for the division lead or battling among themselves. Either way, I still (barely) give Skinny Rex enough credit to think that his team will show up to play and win at home. If they can't, then that will be the best beer and pie I've ever had. Pats slip to 9-2.

WEEK 13 @ Miami
The Pats will get a trip to South Beach to take their mind off of a tough loss. It should be just what the schedule-maker ordered. I don't know who will be playing QB for the Dolphins. I'm not even sure if they have a coach at this point. The Pats get Miami twice in the final month of the season and that's a good thing. Pats win another division game and get to 10-2.

WEEK 14 vs. Houston
The Texans are a tough team to predict for 2012. They won their first division title last year and should have taken out the Ravens in the playoffs but were on their third- or fourth-string QB and lost a tough one. Then they lost Mario Williams to the Bills. So are they still a top contender? I think so. The D is still very good and if Schaub can get back to form the offense is too. Good enough I think to sneak into Gillette and steal a game. If that happens the Pats will have lost two of their last three and the Blabosphere will be all lathered up. Pats 10-3.

WEEK 15 vs. San Francisco
The Pats will give all those lathered up blabbers and bloggers a big "calm down" the following Sunday night in a prime-time matchup with the 49ers. Another great home game. Another great December tailgate in the Enchanted Forest. And another great home win. Like last year, I expect the Pats D -- if healthy -- to begin to really figure it out right about now. Old friend Randy Moss will be among the Niners testing them. I think the Pats will pass this test with a big win. 11-3.

WEEK 16 @ Jacksonville
12-3. The Jags won five games last year and Maurice Jones-Drew had a great season. And stayed healthy. That may be asking too much from him again. The Jags should be stumbling around the NFC South basement with the Colts while the Pats should be locking up the AFC East penthouse yet again. Pats go to 12-3 and clinch another division title. Hats and T-shirts.

WEEK 17 vs. Miami
For the second year in a row the schedule makers send Miami up to Foxborough as the New Year approaches. They really don't like the Dolphins. But the Pats do. There will be lots of talk about what players should rest before the playoffs. I can tell you who will rest... no one. Belichick will start them all and the Pats will wrap up another top seed at 13-3.

Optimism. It's so easy in September. Actually, with Brady and Belichick it's pretty easy in October, November, December, and January too.