Coach bags

The end of the NFL regular season brings with it two things ... the start of the playoffs with Wild Card weekend and the end of some careers with the coaching firing squad. The Monday after Week 17 is often littered with coaches canned for either one disastrous season or a string of bad ones. It's a reminder for Pats' fans just how lucky we are to have Bill Belichick.

There's usually two or three coaches fired on Monday morning, but yesterday there were seven coaches sent packing. A surprising number and a few surprising names on the list:

• Andy Reid, Eagles, after 14 seasons.
• Ken Whisenhunt, Cardinals, after 6 seasons.
• Chan Gailey, Bills, after 3 seasons.
• Lovie Smith, Bears, after 9 seasons.
• Pat Shurmur, Browns, after 2 seasons.
• Romeo Crennel, Chiefs, after just 1 season.
• Norv Turner, Chargers, after 6 seasons.

That's a lot of coaches. There were also a few GMs canned (like Tannenbaum of the Jets) but who really cares about GMs getting fired unless it's your team?

Looking at the list of coaches fired, it breaks down into two categories. The first category is guys who have been with their team for a long time and who have had some success but their teams were clearly heading in the wrong direction. The other category are guys who have only been in the job for a short time and were obviously bad choices when they were hired.

Let's take the second category first. Pat Shurmur was hired by the Browns two years ago billed as one of the games best young offensive minds. He played offensive line at Michigan State and he learned NFL coaching under Andy Reid for 10 years. Not a bad teacher. He moved to St. Louis to be offensive coordinator in 2009 and did that for two years before getting the Cleveland job. Two years as a coordinator is not nearly enough experience to become an NFL head coach unless you had done some head coaching in college. Shurmur had not. But the Browns gave him the job anyway. Which is fine. Why not take a chance on a young guy? Tennessee did that with Jeff Fisher in 1994 and he turned out to be a great coach. But if you are going to hire a guy like Shurmur, you have make a commitment to him for more than two years. Otherwise, why bother?  And that's why the Browns have been bad for years. Eric Mangini ... two years. Romeo Crennel ... three years. If you are only going to give a guy two or three years to get the team headed in the right direction then don't bother hiring him. It's just stupid.

Speaking of stupid... the Chiefs hiring of Crennel and the Bills hiring of Chan Gailey fit that description because they both had head coaching jobs before and had proven they were not head coaching material. Not even close. They are both good guys and great coordinators. But there should be restraining orders preventing them from getting any where near a head coaching job. And yet the Chiefs and the Bills gave them another shot. And not surprisingly, their teams underachieved. Especially the Bills. If Buffalo hires a real coach for next season, with the talent they have, they could win ten games. But since it's Ralph Wilson and the Bills there's a good chance they will mess it up.

My guess is the Bills will probably hire one of the other guys fired yesterday. I'm really hoping it's Norv Turner. It would be great to have Norv in the division. Don't get me wrong. I think Norv is actually a pretty good coach. But he's one of those good coaches whose teams always make crucial mistakes. Which I guess means he's not really a good coach. It's tricky. Same thing with Andy Reid. He's a very good coach. But you just know his team is going to blow it. Reid took Philly to four straight NFC title games, the first three times his team fell flat on its face. The fourth time the Eagles finally won only to lose the Super Bowl to the Patriots. Reid will get another job very quickly. He learned from Mike Holmgren. He's a winner. But it was time for a change after 14 years in Philly. I don't want to see him in Buffalo.

The two other guys fired, Lovie Smith and Ken Whisenhunt, were a bit of a surprise. Smith's Bears went 10-6. It's very rare when a coach gets fired after a winning season. But they were 7-1 halfway through the season and went 3-5 the rest of the way. The Bears were not as good as 7-1 and not as bad as 3-5. They were 10-6 and considering Jay "Goober" Cutler is their QB that's pretty good. Lovie took his team to two NFC title games and the Super Bowl in 2007. But the Bears have only made the playoffs once in the last six years. That will eventually get you fired no matter how nice a guy you are and how much your players love you.  It's the same with Whisenhunt. The Bill Cowher-trained coach got off to a great start with Arizona, taking the team to the Super Bowl in his third season (2009), But since then the Cards have gone 5-11, 8-8, and 5-11. They started off 4-0 this year, including a win at Gillette in Week 2, but they lost nine in a row after that. I think the Cards should have stuck with him another year because it looked like he was building something there with a tough young defense. But that's why teams like the Cards are usually not very good. They are not patient. So now they will be looking to start over.

There was one name not on the list of coaches canned yesterday. Rex Ryan. I'm pretty happy about that. For the second year in a row Ryan's team not only missed the playoffs, but the season ended with the locker room is complete disarray. A team always reflects its coach. And the mess that are the Jets is a mirror image of Skinny Rex. I can't wait to hear what he has to say about what happened this year. But I'll have to wait a while because he decided not to hold the NFL mandated end-of-the-season press conference and head to the Bahamas. That's right. Rex Ryan passed up an opportunity to talk to the media. I know. I can't believe it either. But don't worry. Talk he will. And at some point in his press conference he will be asked about next season and he will make some statement about catching the Patriots and winning the AFC East. That's what I love about Rex. He never learns. And I'm glad his name wasn't on the list.

Greased lightning

WEEK 7
The first half of the Pats-Chargers game set football back about 50 years.

WEEK 7: Pick up game.

Has a wide receiver (SD's Richard Not-So-Goodman) ever caught a pass, fallen down, and then just left the ball on the field for the defense to pick up? I've never seen it. It's also not too often you see offsides on the opening kickoff (Pats), or a team (SD) kill a big drive by throwing a lazy lateral then watching the ball roll around on the ground till a defender (Ninkovich) picks it up and takes it to the 8-yard line. Only to then sack the opposing QB (Brady) twice to force a field goal? It was sloppy, crazy football.

And it made for a beautiful road win for the now 5-1 Patriots. That's two road wins in a row for a team that just a few weeks ago couldn't win outside the Foxborough town line. At two tough places to play. The 2010 season is definitely starting to feel a lot different from 2009. Good teams find ways to win games when not playing at their best. Or take games when the other teams give them away. The Lightning Bolts were in a very giving mood yesterday. Thank you, Norv Turner. Again.

The first half ended with the Pats ahead 13-3 thanks mostly to four Charger turnovers. And thanks to an opportunistic, aggressive defense. San Diego, the best passing attack statistically in the league so far this year, had eight first half possession but only put up one field goal. Tight end Antonio Gates, almost unstoppable in the first six weeks, was blanked in the first half. It was another solid game by Jerod Mayo, Jermaine Cunningham, Rob Ninkovich, Pat Chung, Vince Wilfork, and company.

The third quarter opened with a dominating 17-play drive by the Pats that showed how good the offense can be when it is clicking. Brady spread the ball around nicely and Woodhead and Green-Ellis continued their straight ahead -- if unspectacular -- running game. The Pats controlled most of the second half and with just more than seven minutes left in the game were up 23-6. Then the Chargers -- desperate to avoid falling to 2-5 -- finally got their passing game cranking.

Gates finally hauled in a touchdown pass and the Chargers cut the score to 23-13. Then something very surprising happened. Norv outcoached Bill Belichick. No, really. The Chargers executed a perfect onside kick and recovered the ball. The Pats did not look ready for that. Might have been because the sun seemed to be in Belichick's eyes the entire fourth quarter. Whatever it was, the Chargers drove in for another score to cut the lead to 23-20.

Brady and the offense got the ball with four minutes left. Two first downs and the game would be over. It's a drive this offense has to have. Instead the offense went four and out. Green-Ellis was stuffed on a fourth down run and the Chargers took the ball and moved into position for a 45-yard field goal to tie the game. Fittingly, San Diego committed one last mistake. A five-yard illegal formation flag pushed the kick back to a 50-yarder and Kris Brown's kick -- and the Chargers' season -- clanked off the goal post.

The Pats -- as the Steelers and the Ravens also did yesterday -- escaped with a big win.

There were plenty of negatives for the Pats. Too many penalties. The defense gave up nearly 400 yards of offense -- again. The offense is still having too many wasted possessions. The passing game is mostly limited to Aaron Hernandez. New hero Deion Branch finished with just four catches and was hardly part of the offense for three quarters. Watching the tape of the game showed several times where he came off the line of scrimmage and just stood around. Like Randy Moss. I can't wait to hear Felger rip Branch for that. Right. He loves Branch. The old double-standard. The Pats are 2-0 since trading away Moss, but in both wins the offense had no deep threat and struggled for much of the game. That may prove to be a weakness going forward. It may not. Clearly an element of their attack is gone.

But the defense is fast becoming a positive. Mayo is starting to return to the level that he played at during his award-winning rookie season. Rookie Devin McCourty, who has been quietly playing solid cornerback since training camp, made his first pick of the year. Brandon Meriweather made some big -- and legal -- hits. There will be some tough days ahead for the young defense, but the signs are mostly pointing in the right direction.

Speaking of pointing in the right direction... there's Tom Brady. He threw for just 159 yards yesterday and one touchdown. But the biggest stat was his interceptions: zero. On a day when seven picks were returned for touchdowns in the NFL, the Pats quarterback did a great job of directing his team and keeping them in a position to win. Just like he did last week against Baltimore. He will still have his three and four touchdown games. But yesterday's one touchdown game was just as crucial. He's playing like the veteran champion that he is. That's the most positive sign.

Next up on the schedule is a game I've been looking forward to since the schedule came out (I'll be saying that a lot the rest of the season). Brett Favre and Randy Moss come to Gillette for a 4 p.m. game on Halloween. The forecast is partly cloudy with temps in the 50s. Perfect costume weather. I will be wearing my Randy Moss T-shirt as a final salute to one of the game's greatest receivers.

It should be a house of horrors for old man Favre.

I've got a schedule to keep

The 2010 regular season schedule came out yesterday. It's gonna be a great year of tailgating. Before the team started winning championships, the day the schedule came out was a big one for me and Mark. We'd bring the Globe to our Quincy bar of choice (Cronin's, Nally's, the High Rise) and go over each game and decide if the Patriots had any chance of winning it. When Mark moved to NY we'd break it down over the phone. Before the 2001 season, any year we could predict a 9-7 wildcard finish was a year of optimism. As I've said before, things have sure changed.

Mark and I don't call each other when the schedule comes out anymore. After a decade of 16-0, 14-2, and 12-4 seasons I guess we don't feel the need to convince each other that there's hope. We know that we will return to doing that some day.

So, absent Mark's input, here's the week-by-week 2010 Patriots season as I see it. It's not going to be a cake walk to the playoffs, but I'm feeling positive.

WEEK 1 vs. Cincinnati
A good test to start. The Bengals were the surprise team in the AFC last year, sweeping both the Steelers and the Ravens to win the North. But they lost three out of their last five games and were one and done in the playoffs thanks to a lot of blown chances at home against the Jets. It's a home opener the Pats should win.

WEEK 2 @ NY Jets

The first of three straight divisional games. Seems the schedule makers don't want to wait long to see who really is the best team in the AFC East. A road win at NY would be a good way to shut up Mt. Ryan early. But that's a tall order against the best D in the league. You have to figure the Jets will take this one and then make sure you get even with them at home later.

WEEK 3 vs. Buffalo

A must-win home game. The Bills have dumped coach (and Belichick loyalist) Dick Jauron so we can no longer count on him gift wrapping two wins a year. That's too bad. The Bills almost upset the Pats in the opener last season. And they might be better this year. But I don't see new coach Chan Gailey having them that much improved by the third week.

WEEK 4 @ Miami

A Monday nighter against the Dolphins. It's great that games against Miami mean something again. It's the way it should be. Another thing we can thank the Tuna for. The Dolphins started to move away -- wisely -- from the Wildcat offense that won them the division in '08. They lost some tough games last year and dropped to 7-9 but there will be many who will predict that the Dolphins finish ahead of the Patriots. Not me. I can see the Pats going down to Miami and winning a big one on the road.

WEEK 5 Bye

Are games two through four way too early to say the success (or lack thereof) of the Patriots season will mostly be decided heading into an early bye? No. We will know quite a bit about the Patriots already. If they win their two home games and split on the road they will be at 3-1 (2-1 in the division). Anything more than that will be a sign that the team is starting to make the transition from the Bruschi/Harrison years to the Mayo/Wilfork years. Anything less than 3-1 and we're probably looking at another up and down year. Especially with the brutal schedule from here on.

WEEK 6 vs. Baltimore

The rematch. Regardless of the Pats record this will be a huge game. The Ravens crushing playoff win in Gillette is still fresh in my mind and I'm sure it will be for the Pats come Week 6. The fact that the Pats get their bye right before this game will make for quite a build-up, especially if both teams are playing well. And unlike the playoff game there will be Don Julio margaritas being poured on this day. I can't wait. I think the Pats are still the type of team that won't lose a grudge match like this.

WEEK 7 @ San Diego

If the Pats come into this game at 4-1 or better and go to SD and win on the road... well let's just say we will all start thinking the Pats are back. (Not that they have really gone anywhere). But that's a tall order. The Chargers won 11 straight games to finish at 13-3 last year but still managed to choke in the playoffs -- again. LT is gone. But Phillip Rivers isn't. He's the guy that wins games. This one likely goes to SD.

WEEK 8 vs. Minnesota

The Ravens, the Chargers, and then the Vikings? It's a hell of a schedule. 2010 is either going to be a lot fun or very ugly. The schedule won't allow much in between. I never thought I would say this but... I hope Brett Favre doesn't retire one more time. Can't you already get psyched at the thought of the NFL career interception leader coming to Foxborough on Halloween? Favre or no, Pats roll at home against a slightly overrated NFC team.

WEEK 9 @ Cleveland

This is one of the road games the team has to win. The Browns scored only 245 points last season and gave up 375 for one of the largest differentials in the league. Simply put the Browns are bad. Yet they still will win five or six times next season. The Pats have to make sure they aren't one of them. And they better because the next two games are going to be probably the toughest back-to-back games of the season.

WEEK 10 @ Pittsburgh

The Steelers have won two Super Bowls in the last five years and followed each by missing the playoffs. They've been an interesting team the past decade. And one of the Pats' main rivals. Going into Pittsburgh on a Sunday night and winning is not easy. I expect the Steelers to return to form and be a playoff team. Unless Big Ben is suspended. This is one of those games that will play a large role in who gets a playoff bye and who doesn't.

WEEK 11 vs. Indianapolis

As will this one. The Pats and Colts meet yet again. This time back at Gillette. You might remember last year's game for that little fourth down play near the end of the game. That might come up during the week before this one. Colts almost won their second Super Bowl with Peyton Manning but lost in a great game against the Saints. Will there be a hangover for them? I think so. Pats get the upper hand in this one.

WEEK 12 @ Detroit

Pass the gravy please. I have the Pats coming into their Turkey Day matchup with Detriot at 7-3. That means they should leave here 8-3. The Lions were 2-14 last year and should not be much better than that. The last time the Pats played the Lions on Thanskgiving was the 2000 season, Belichick's first with the team. I worked on Sundays when the Pats weren't at home so I didn't get to see any of the road games that year. "This is the first game I've gotten to sit on the couch and watch on TV this year,'' I told my nephew Pete. "I can't wait." Lions 34, Pats 9. I expect it to be different this time.

WEEK 13 vs. NY Jets

So in my perfect-world scenario the Pats come into this huge Monday night home game against the hated Jets at 8-3 or better. The beauty of it is that even if they are 6-5 this will still be a great night of tailgating if they can win. But I expect this to be a clash of division leaders. And I expect, like last year, for the Pats to even the score at home. As I expect, like last year, for the Pats to win the AFC East.

WEEK 14 @ Chicago

The team enters a string of three very winnable games. If their record is around 9-3 (as I hope), then these three games are where they can put away a first-round bye and then get healthy and rested for the playoffs. A cold-weather road trip to Chicago should give the Pats their 10th win.

WEEK 15 vs. Green Bay

Can the Patriots finish another year with a perfect record against the NFC? Yes. They've gone 15-1 against the other conference in the last four years. They should finish up a 4-0 campaign with a win over the Pack. If this was a road game I would have to give the nod to Green Bay, a definite playoff contender. But it's at home in December.

WEEK 16 @ Buffalo

This is a key division game for the Pats. A sweep of the Bills would go a long way towards winning the East. They have played some ugly late-season games in Ralph Wilson Stadium recently. This one probably won't be too pretty either. But an ugly win is a win nonetheless.

WEEK 17 vs. Miami

I'm predicting the Pats will strut into this game at 12-3 and the division wrapped up. Hey, what's the point of being a fan if you can't be positive? It's very possible this game could decide the division, or decide who goes to the playoffs and who doesn't. So in either case Foxborough will be the place to be on a cold January 2 day. What a schedule it is. What a season it could be.

Final standings

The regular season is over and the Colts are right where they started in my top 10 rankings -- No. 1. And that's where they belong. A columnist wrote last week (after the Pats had their way with the Jaguars) that there aren't a lot of good teams in the NFL. I couldn't disagree more. Look at the playoff teams ranked below (12, not 10). Any one of them could win the Super Bowl. They are all that good. Sure, there are some bad teams like Oakland, Washington, and others. But even they competed with the top dogs and pulled off some upsets. There may not be any powerhouses in the NFL right now, but there are a dozen or more very good teams. That should make for some great playoff games.

1. Indianapolis Colts (14-2): They lost their last two games due to indifference. So now Manning and the Colts head into the playoffs without the historic burden of 19-0. They can relax, get rested, and be ready in two weeks. But will they be ready? They are the best team in the league but they will have gone almost a month without competing. If they can shake the rust and get through the first playoff game they will be tough to stop.

2. San Diego Chargers (13-3): The hot team. The favorite pick to win it all. The Chargers stumbled out of the gate at 2-3 but have rolled off eleven straight wins to close out the regular season. Phillip Rivers should be the league MVP (of course it will go to #4). They were the team to beat way back in '06 when the Pats went into SD and stole one. They are a veteran team now. Less cocky. They know what it takes. Even Norv might not be able to screw this up. Maybe.

3. New Orleans Saints (13-3): What the hell happened to the Saints? It wasn't that long ago that they were whuppin' the Pats on Monday night and looking like the team to beat. They are still the team to beat in the NFC but they closed out the season with three straight losses -- two of them in the Dome. Their offense sputtered down the stretch, scoring less than 20 points in all three loses. Can they turn it back on in the second round of the playoffs? I think they will.

4. Minnesota Vikings (12-4): Brett Favre finished the season with 30 touchdowns. And only seven picks. Seven! I would have put a lot of money on him throwing double digits. But he didn't. Impressive. Favre gets all the attention but Minnesota has a lot more than #4 going for them. A great run defense. A great running game. Adrian Peterson is one of the most dangerous backs in the game. He can change a game with one play. The Vikes will be tough to beat at home in the Division round.

5. Green Bay Packers (11-5): It gets a lot harder to separate the remaining playoff teams. The Pack get the nod because of their overall balance. The offense put up the third most points-per-game. Aaron Rodgers matched Favre's 30 TDs. Grant Jennings and the ageless Donald Driver are as good a one-two WR punch as there is. The defense is even better. The have the best run D in the league. Theyare fast enough to win in a dome and tough enough to win in the cold. The Pack could make it to the NFC title game.

6. Dallas Cowboys (11-5): Dallas makes the fourth NFC team in the top six. Unlike many teams in the AFC, most NFC teams are heading into the playoffs on a roll. The 'Boys are rolling as well as anyone. Tony Romo smashed his "can't win in December" label into oblivion. Now we'll see if he -- and Wade Phillips -- can actually win a playoff game. They haven't won one since 1996. That's right. Dallas hasn't won a playoff game all decade. Jerry Jones might hang himself from the giant video screen at the top of the Jerry Dome if they don't break that streak. Too bad he has Phillips as his coach.

7. New England Patriots (10-6): Too high a ranking for the Pats? You're probably right. They won one less game this year with Brady than they did last year with Matt Cassel. Didn't expect that. But of the remaining teams competing for the seven spot the Pats have the best chance of winning a home playoff game and advancing. They went unbeaten at Gillette. The Ravens are going to be tough to beat (especially without -- gulp -- Welker) but Brady is still Brady. They still have lots of weapons. The defense has yet to show they can lock down a big win. If the Pats are leading the Ravens 24-10 going into the fourth quarter ... I'm going to be nervous.

8. New York Jets (9-7): What the heck are they doing in the playoffs? Didn't they blow a home game against Atlanta a few weeks ago that pretty much killed their season? Weren't the Colts leading them two weeks ago ... oh, right. The Colts gave up. Thus the Jets' season was taken off life support and they are now up and walking again. Right into the playoffs. With the best defense in the league. Nice going Colts. Rooting against the Jets is ingrained in me. But I think I would actually enjoy watching them win this weekend and then go into Indy and beat the Colts in a real game. Now that would be justice.

9. Cincinnati Bengals (10-6): Cincy ended the season by getting stomped 37-0 by the Jets. And now they play them in the Wild Card round. It doesn't mean a thing. The Bengals -- like the NYJ -- win with defense. At least that's how they should win. Also like the Jets, they get in trouble when they get away from that approach. Cincy has not looked strong down the stretch and are certainly vulnerable. If they can get in front of the Jets early and get the hungry Cincy fans fired up they will be in good shape. If not, their once-promising season will end a disappointment.

10. Baltimore Ravens (9-7): The Ravens barely beat the Raiders in a must-win game. But they won. They haven't had the most impressive season. But they scratched their way into the tournament. They are a well-coached, smash-mouth team. Ray Lewis will scream. John Harbaugh will have his team prepared. Joe Flacco will not make many mistakes. They won't beat themselves. But they can be beaten.

11. Arizona Cardinals (10-6): The Cards go into the playoffs in much the same unimpressive state that they did last year. And they went to the Super Bowl last year. Can Kurt Warner and the men in red catch fire again? Last year they opened up against a tough Atlanta team and beat them in a great 30-24 game. They will face a similar challenge against Green Bay. Can they do it again? I doubt it.

12. Philadelphia Eagles (11-5): The Eagles are in the playoffs yet again. But don't expect them to be making yet another trip to the NFC championship game this decade. They don't have the defense. Philly soared to the top of the NFC East behind the passing attack of Donovan McNabb and DeSean Jackson. Shut down the big plays (like the Cowboys did yesterday) and the Eagles don't have much else. It's been a good year for Philly, but the ride is over.

Dishonorable mention: The Denver Broncos. Or should I say Josh McDaniels. Denver started off 6-0 under the first year coach even though he had spent the preseason battling with his players and trading away his starting QB. After beating the Pats in Week 6 McDaniels stormed around the stadium roaring and screaming. He certainly earned the right to let it all out. It was a big win. But it was kind of a startling show of emotion for an NFL head coach. It's fine to show emotions but you shouldn't look like a college cheerleader (or frat boy). You wouldn't see Parcells doing that. Or Shula. Or Dungy. It made me wonder if he could keep control of his team the whole year. Turns out he couldn't.