The leader board

One month to go in the 2012 NFL regular season. So far it's been a highly entertaining season (unless you live in KC). This is a pretty good brand of NFL football. And I grew up on 1970s NFL. One of the toughest, craziest, most innovative decades of football ever. If you are a pro football fan, today's NFL -- with the NFL Network, NFL.com, and, most importantly, the Red Zone -- is as good as anything television has to offer. It's the best comedy/drama/reality series there is.

There's the story of Peyton Manning coming back from "Terminator" neck surgery and playing better than ever. There's Andrew Luck, the rookie who replaced Manning in Indy, showing why Indy was crazy enough to give up on one of the three greatest quarterbacks to ever play the game. There's RG3. There's the Colts going from two wins last year to a playoff team this year, inspired by their coach who was diagnosed with cancer. In an era of fantastic offensive displays, there are contenders in San Fran, Seattle, Houston, and Chicago that are led by nasty, hard-hitting defenses.

Oh, and there's Tom Brady and the Patriots battling for the top -- again. The rest of the NFL-loving world must be beyond sick of them. That makes rooting for them that much more enjoyable.

Twelve teams will make the playoffs. Six in each conference. These are the twelve I think will make it...

1. Houston Texans (11-1): It took back-to-back overtime wins against lesser teams (Jags and Lions) to keep the Texans from plummeting down this list. But win they did. The have talent all over the field and they are well coached by the perfectly coiffed Gary Kubiak. The Texans face the biggest game in their franchise history on Monday night at Gillette. Bigger than their playoff game last year. Why? Because if they win they are the #1 seed and get to eat Texas BBQ throughout the AFC playoffs. If they lose then they are in a dogfight just to get a first-round bye. The Texans are the second best team in the league against the run. The Pats are eighth in rushing. The Texans have a point differential of an impressive +130. There's only one team better... the Pats at +170. That's right. The Pats have score 170 more points than they have allowed.

2. New England Patriots (9-3): And that's why they are the second best team in the league till they win Monday night. Did I mention they have scored 170 more points than they have allowed? And they have done it with major injuries to Hernandez, to Gronk, to Edelman, to most of the offensive line, to both starting safeties, and now to rookie of the year candidate Chandler Jones. If Brady and the Pats can get a bye and get healthy come January, there is only one team that would make me nervous in the playoffs. That's the one with the white N and the G on their blue helmets, of course.

3. Atlanta Falcons (11-1): I said in an earlier ranking that the Falcons have the smell of that team that goes 15-1 and loses at home in the Divisional Round to the Bears or the Giants. They are starting to smell just a little less each week. Following their first loss to New Orleans a month ago they have beaten Arizona, Tampa, and their nemesis the Saints in three tough games. Playoff-like games. The Falcons have the fourth-best passing attack. But they are only 28th in the league in rushing, And they are average stopping the pass and the run. They deserve to be ranked at the top of the NFC heading into the stretch drive, but I wouldn't bet on them getting a chance to play for the Lombardi.

4. Denver Broncos (9-3): How great would it be if Peyton Manning and the Broncos came into Gillette for the AFC Championship game? I know, be careful what you wish for. But it would be great. Especially if it was about 25 degrees with a little snow. I've got plenty of layers for that. And it just might happen because Manning the Elder is playing as great as ever. It really shouldn't come as a shock. Impressive, yes. But not a shock. If you've been watching Manning for nearly 20 years you've seen him do some amazing things. This year is no different. The best play the veteran made all year was when he passed over other teams and chose to go to Denver. The Broncos were a pretty good team last year. Now they are very good.

5. San Francisco 49ers (8-3-1): The best defense in the league is great to have but you still need to be able to control the ball and score points on offense. That's the Niners achilles heel. And they now have a quarterback controversy. That's never good. Jim Harbaugh got a little too smart for his own good. But he's always been that way. The Niners were looking solid with Alex Smith at QB, the guy who led them to the NFC title game. Then he got hurt and Harbaugh's guy Colin Kaepernick came in and looked pretty good. But really not any better than Smith. And then the Niners lost to the Rams with Kaepernick and now Harbaugh has a problem. But it's not a huge problem because quarterback is not -- by far -- the most important position on his team. That's because his running game is the second best in the league. And the defense? Well, it's second against the pass and third against the run. The best defense in the league.

6. Green Bay Packers (8-4): It's been a crazy season so far for the Pack. The team that went 15-1 last year has had a much bumpier, injury-filled ride this time. The Pack had a game stolen from them by the fake refs. After five games they were sitting at 2-3 but then strung together five straight wins and were looking like the NFC favorite again only to get stomped by the Giants. After all that, the Pack is still sitting at 8-4 and now have a chance to grab that #2 seed and get the bye and a home game at Lambeau. If Aaron Rodgers and his well-coached team can do that then I think you will be seeing them in the Super Bowl.

7. New York Giants (7-5): Or you'll see these guys. A month ago I had the 6-2 defending champs at the top of the list. Since then they have gone 1-3. They are now in a dogfight with the Skins and the Cowboys ... and the Skins with RG3 are starting to jell. Why do I find the Giants more dangerous at 7-5 than I did when they were 6-2? Because that's what the Giants do. Little Manning had a rough few weeks but you now he will be clutch when it counts. And the G-Men have that great pass rush. Still, I get the feeling that the horseshoe may have fallen out of this team's pocket.

8. Chicago Bears (8-4): When the Bears are clicking they are a heck of a team. It's just hard to believe a team coached by Lovie Smith and led by Jay Cutler will click when it counts. But the defense is good enough to give them a chance to find out. There's been a lot of talk of how Brandon Marshall has made a huge difference on the offense. And he has. But the Chicago passing game is 31st in the league. Sure, the running game is top 10. As is the defense. But with Cutler in charge the Bears are always beatable.

9. Indianapolis Colts (8-4): One of the more compelling stories in the league this year is the Colts resurgence and the fact that it's happening while their first-year coach is being treated for cancer. As great a human interest story as that is, it's the play of rookie QB Andrew Luck and the rest of the rebuilding Colts that has been something to see. Luck has had Manning-like moments. The rest of the team is  pretty average, but Luck (like Manning) makes everyone better. The Colts are the Cinderella team riding on emotion. You don't want to play them in the first round.

10. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5): This is the point in the rankings where you can choose from about fifteen teams. I'm going with the proven commodity. Big Ben and the Steelers are getting older and are pretty banged up. But they just schooled RG3 and the Skins on how to play smash-mouth football. As the Ravens are losing more guys to injury, the Steelers are starting to get healthier. If they get Polamalu back they should win the AFC North and be a team to fear in the playoffs because they have the experience and they have Big Ben.

11. Seattle Seahawks (7-5): Pete Carroll has something going here. Much to my surprise. It seems like he has built a really good college team in the Northwest and those college players are responding to his style. The Seahawks are like the Bears. Good running game. Very good defense.  Not very dangerous passing game. But rookie Russell Wilson has been gaining more confidence. I would have more faith in him than Cutler in a playoff game. Seattle will go as far as their young, nasty D will carry them.

12. Baltimore Ravens (9-3): If there were more than four weeks left in the season I think the Bengals would catch the Ravens for the last wildcard spot. The veteran (old) team in Baltimore is fading that fast. The Ravens are 15th in the league in passing, but only 23rd in the league in rushing. That's hard to explain considering they have Ray Rice. More worrisome if you are a Raven fan is the fact that the defense is ranked 23rd against the pass AND the run. The Ravens have a lot of talent, but they are a wounded team heading into the playoffs.

Dishonorable mention: The 3-9 Philadephia Eagles. Sure, I could have put the Jets here after their performance on Thanksgiving night against the Pats. (He ran into his ass!) But enough of the Jets. The Eagles are having an even more hideous season. Their second in a row. Since dubbing themselves the "Dream Team" before last year, the Eagles have gone 11-17. Dream on. Michael Vick. Disaster. DeSean Jackson. Disaster. Nmandi Asomugha. Disaster. Andy Reid. Gone.

Playoff picture

As they say on ESPN... "If the playoffs started today..."

In the AFC, the Pats would host their longtime rivals the Steelers and in the other game Peyton Manning and the Broncos would host his old team the Colts. In the NFC, the Bears would host the Seahawks in a battle of nasty defenses and the Packers would get another shot at the Giants, the team that has knocked them out of the playoffs a few times in the last several years.

That's a great Wild Card weekend. I wish the playoffs did start today.

A banner night

TALES FROM THE TAILGATE
Pats 30, Steelers 14 (9/9/'02): I won't be going to the home opener today at Gillette. I haven't missed a homer opener in the nearly 25 years I've been a season-ticket holder for the Patriots. But a late-summer Cape vacation with Devra (and a baby to be named later) calls. And calls loudly.

The opener is always one of the best tailgates of the year. The weather is almost always perfect (see: today). Friends who haven't seen each other since last winter get together and share stories of work, politics, family ... OK, we mostly just talk football and food. Oh, the food. Today's menu (I'm told) features burgers from Noacks in Connecticut that Matt brings up with him from his ESPN job. If you haven't tasted the smoked meats from Noacks you've been missing out. But I digress ... the homer opener is something you look forward to from the moment the schedule comes out in late spring. Many of the home openers are high on the list of great days (or nights) in Foxborough.

But one home opener stands out among the rest. September 9th, 2002. A day I never imagined would come. The Pats were raising a Super Bowl championship banner.

The joy from the moment when Vinatieri's kick went through the uprights in New Orleans was still with everyone as we gathered in the lot in front of our brand new stadium! A Super Bowl title and a new stadium! Were we in Pittsburgh? Dallas? San Francisco? No. We were in New England. After nearly 30 years of rooting for a team sure to break your heart, I was getting ready to watch my team raise a banner as the best in the NFL. In a brand new stadium. It was surreal. And we were like kids on Christmas Eve.

It was 80 degrees with a light breeze on a Monday night in September. The Pats were re-matched against the Steelers, the team that they had upset on the road in the AFC title game to advance to the Super Bowl. Everyone remembers "The Snow Bowl" against the Raiders and, of course, the Super Bowl. The game in between often gets overlooked. The Pats walked into Steel Town and punched them in the face to take the AFC championship. The Steelers still think they were the better team and deserved to win. Of course after Spygate broke players such as Hines Ward said things like "Hey, I knew they were cheating! Where are our championship rings?" On the fingers of the Pats, right where they belong. Spygate or not, the Pats beat the Steelers because of Troy Brown's special teams play (which you don't need illegal videos for) and Steeler QB Kordell Stewart's not-so-special play. Simple as that.

Bitter Steeler players were quoted before the season-opening rematch as saying "There's nothing like knocking off the champs." The champs? That's right. We are the champs!

The parking lot was like Mardi Gras. Fans shot off fireworks. Music blasted. People danced. The food was better and the drink was sweeter. We were the champs. We arrived inside Gillette Stadium and made our way to our new seats... in Section 109 at the 45-yard line. It was official: me, Paul, Bergs, and Shep had died and gone to football heaven. The new stadium was impressive. And this was before KraftWorld, a.k.a. Patriot Place, came to be. There was a big ceremony planned with former players introduced and a highlight film of the team's Super Bowl run on the big screen. Nick Carter sang the National Anthem (OK, not everything was magical). One of the loudest cheers came for the announcement that the new stadium was built with private money and without PSLs, the dreaded personal seat licenses. If I ever meet Bob Kraft in person I know just what to say. "Thanks for not charging me thousands of dollars for the right to pay you thousands of dollars to buy my tickets." He could have gouged the fans (of which he was a long-suffering one) and he didn't. A class act that should never be forgotten no matter how many young starlets he dates.

The players were introduced as one, just like the Super Bowl. Then the lights went out and Mr. Kraft started "You've been waiting 40 years for this" and the roar got louder. U2's "Beautiful Day" played, just like in the Super Bowl, and a spotlight hit the south end zone where the championship banner was unveiled. It was like New Year's in Times Square. Hugging. Cheering. Laughing. Kissing.

The energy from the ceremony carried over to the game. The Steelers scored to tie the game 7-7 in the first quarter and then the Patriots steamrolled them. Scoring the next 23 points. In the second quarter hero Vinatieri walked out to kick a field goal a recieved a long, raucous standing-O. The kick gave the Pats a 10-7 lead and they poured it on from there. Brady and the offense had almost 350 yards for the game and Kordell Stewart reprised his role of mistake-prone QB by throwing three picks. Final score 30-14.

At one point during a TV timeout in the fourth quarter -- with the crowd in full celebration mode -- Queen's "We Are the Champions" blasted out over the new stadium's speakers. The crowd began to sing along ... "Weeee are the cham-pions, my friend. And weeeee'll keep on fighting ..." It was almost a Patriotic moment. Then-President Bush would have gotten teary. A group of Americans singing as one about winning. The crowd continued to sing louder and louder and then, as the commercial break ended and the players lined up for the next play. the music, as it always does, stopped. But the crowd did not. "Weeee are the cham-pions. Weeeeee are the cham-pions ..." 60,000 plus singing a cappella till the final line. "Weeee are the cham-pions! ... of the woooooorld!"

That night we were.

The next one

Tom Brady has been asked "What's your favorite ring?" many times over the years. He often answers by telling a story from when he was a quarterback at Michigan in the late '90s. He said he once asked his offensive coordinator which of his many Big Ten championship rings was his favorite. "He looked at me and said 'The next one. The next one'," Brady recalled. "I said, "Ya. The next one."

Brady gets a shot at the next one today. It should be a great game. It got me thinking of all the great playoff games that Brady has played in. Before Brady and Belichick the Patriots had appeared in 17 playoff games in 40 years of football and their record was an underwhelming 7-10. There were some great games in there but also some heartbreakers (Steelers 7, Pats 6 in '97 is a good example). Since Brady walked on the field in September of 2001 the team has played in 21 playoffs games, going 16-5. What a run it has been.

As the Pats get ready for another Super Bowl, it's a good time to look back at the last decade and rank the top playoff games (not including this year just yet). It's not really a ranking as much as a list of great memories...

10. '06 Divisional Round (vs. Chargers): The only non-Super Bowl year game to make the list. This was one I watched mostly with my hands partially blocking my eyes, fearing the Chargers next score that would have blown the game open. San Diego led 14-3 early but the Pats scratched their way back to 21-13 with eight minutes to go. The Pats were teetering on the brink of disaster the whole game and when Brady was picked by Marlon McCree with about five minutes left it looked like they were done. But McCree kept running with the ball and the ever-alert Troy Brown stripped it and the Pats recovered. New life! Brady quickly cashed in on the second chance with a TD and two-point conversion (direct snap to Faulk of course) to tie the game at 21. The Pats D held and Gostkowski nailed a 31-yarder for one of the all-time great playoff thefts.

9. '04 Divisional Round (vs. Colts): When a team's most impressive, dominating defensive playoff performance of the decade only comes in at #9, well, you know you've been treated to some great games. This was the "Clock Killin' '' Corey Dillon game. This was the game where the unstoppable force (Colts' offense) met the immovable object (Pats' D). The league had changed the rules after the Pats beat the Colts (and beat them up) the year before, allowing more freedom for the receivers. The new rules didn't help. Bruschi ripped the ball from Dominick Rhodes's hands. The Pats (with the help of the cold and snow) ripped the heart right out of the Indy offense. They beat the Eagles for the title two weeks later but this was the '04 Super Bowl.

8. '03 Divisional Round (vs. Titans): The coldest playoff game in Patriot history. Every now and then a shiver will run through my body leftover from that day. How the players were able to play such a great game is beyond me. It took all my strength just to drink my beers. Brady hit Bethel Johnson on a 41-yard bomb as if it was a sunny September afternoon. Rodney Harrison hit everything in sight (and had a pick) and Adam Vinatieri hit yet another huge kick, nailing a 46-yarder with five minutes to go. I can still hear his foot smack the frozen ball as if he was kicking a cinder block. It hurt just to listen to it.

7. '01 AFC Championship (vs. Steelers): I watched this one at a bar with Paul. I was supposed to be at work. It seemed like a good day to take a three-hour lunch break. Other than the Sox Game 7 win over the Yankees this was the best bar game I've watched. The place was raucous. The Pats were big underdogs. The Steelers were way too cocky. Then Brady went down and Drew Bledsoe came in to play the role of hero. It was Bledsoe's shining moment as a Patriot -- and his last. He sure deserved it. Troy Brown made two huge special teams plays and the Pats found themselves headed to New Orleans for the Super Bowl.

6. Super Bowl XXXIX (vs. Eagles): A Super Bowl not in the top 5? A Super Bowl that gave the Pats back-to-back titles not in the top 5? That's right. It wasn't all that great a game. The Pats only won by a field goal (24-21) but the game never felt that close. Not every Super Bowl is a classic. The key is just to win it. The beauty always lies in the final score. The Eagles and T.O. put up a good battle but the Patriots were too experienced, deep, and confident to let the chance at history get away. Linebacker Mike Vrabel made an acrobatic TD catch and Rodney sealed the victory with a pick, ending the game by flapping his arms like Eagles wings. The Pats had soared to the level of a dynasty.

5. '03 AFC Championship (vs. Colts): When someone says Gillette Stadium isn't a great home-field advantage its pretty clear that they weren't there for this game. The rivalry was just starting to build at this point. If you asked most people (outside of NE) which of these teams was about to win back-to-back titles I bet 90 percent of them would have chosen the Colts. They would have been wrong. The Pats D forced Manning to throw four picks (three by Ty Law) by harassing him and knocking his receivers all over the field. Rule changes would follow. And so would more Pats victories.

4. '04 AFC Championship (vs. Steelers): Oh, this game was fun to watch. The rematch with the Steelers in Heinz Field. Three years later the Pittsburgh players were still whining about their '01 loss and, having put a beating on the Pats in the regular season, were predicting a blowout. They were right. It was a blowout. Pats 41-27. And it wasn't that close. Deion Branch caught a TD bomb to open the scoring and then ran one in on the reverse to close out the scoring. Brady was an efficient 14-21 for only 207 yards and two TDs. But the D forced three picks -- Rodney taking one 87 yards for a touchdown. Blowout.

3. Super Bowl XXXVIII (vs. Panthers): One of the strangest Super Bowls ever. And the most exciting. The first quarter was a defensive war. Neither team scored. Then Vrabel forced a fumble, Brady hit Branch for a touchdown, and the two teams busted out to score 24 points in the last three minutes of the half. 24 points in three minutes after a bruising defensive first half. I've never seen anything like it. The two teams went back into their defensive stance, both coming up empty in the third quarter. That all changed again in the fourth quarter when the teams combined to score 37 points. Most of them on big plays. The game kept swinging from a standoff to a shootout. The Pats had Brady and Vinatieri. They got off the last shot for one of the greatest Super Bowl victories in NFL history.

2. Snow Bowl (vs. Raiders): "After review, the quarterback's arm was going forward ..." Tuck that! I'll be watching the tape of this game when I'm a happy old man. Hopefully I will be able to remember what it was like to be there as well as I can now. I think I will. The weather. The old stadium. A franchise's luck changing forever. A kick for the ages. A game for the ages. Most of the talk now centers on the fumble-that-wasn't and Vinatieri's clutch kicks, but the Pats receivers (Patten, Brown, Wiggins, Faulk) made some incredible catches in the blizzard. It was a memorable way to close out the old place. There's only one game that could top this instant classic.

1. Super Bowl XXXVI (vs. Rams): I was sitting on the floor next to the television in my parent's den. I wanted to be as close to the TV as I could. Brady spike the ball with just seven seconds left, the ball bouncing straight up and landing gently in the palm of his hand. Everyone was silent as Vinatieri walked out for the kick. "If he makes this we are Super Bowl champs," ran through my mind about 100 times in 30 seconds. I'm sure it was going through the mind of everyone in the room. But no one dared say it. The ball was snapped. Vinatieri kicked it smoothly. The camera angle switched to behind the goal post, the ball heading right towards me. It was right down the middle. Right down the middle! We yelled and danced and hugged and laughed -- and even cried a little -- for hours. The kick was good. I still can't believe it.

Here's hoping there's a new No. 1 for the list by the end of the day today.

Reading material

Wild-card weekend lived up to its name... mostly due to the instant-classic the Steelers and Broncos staged yesterday evening in Denver. The Saints offense looked awesome (again). The Giants D looked even better than it did in '07 (yikes). The Texans, even with TJ Yates at QB, looked good enough to go into Baltimore and pull the upset (please). But it was the Broncos and the Steelers that are the talk of the football world today. Well, as usual, most of the talk is about Tebow.

• The Christian Science Monitor -- how fitting -- weighs in with an interesting piece on how Tebow not being great is what makes Tebow great. 
• The Denver Post is finding religion. Tebow's performance in the thriller over Pittsburgh has lifted the holy spirits all around Colorado. It's been that magical.
• And let's not forget the Steel City. Pittsburgh is not used to losing games like that. I'm not used to seeing Pittsburgh losing games like that. I could get used to it. Reading some of the Steelers stories today, it was clear that this loss was less of a surprise in Pittsburgh than it was to me.

The Saints, Giants, Broncos, and Texans all looked capable of being this year's "team that gets hot in the playoffs." Their victories set up one of the most promising divisional rounds I can remember. In the NFC, the high-octane offense of the Saints against the stone-wall D of the Niners is a classic speed vs. brute force contest. The other NFC game is the Giants, looking very dangerous, going into Lambeau to take on the 15-1 defending champs. If the Packers are going to repeat, they are going to have to beat the Giants and either New Orleans or San Fran. That's a tough road back to the Super Bowl. In the AFC, the game that has the least buzz is Houston at Baltimore. It could turn out to be the best game of the weekend. Both teams can run and play nasty defense. And each can pass just enough to make plays. I will be hoping Houston pulls the upset, of course, because I'd rather not see Terrell Suggs chasing Brady all over the field during the AFC title game. THE game of the weekend will take place Saturday night at Gillette. There will be lots of talk this week about how lucky the Pats are to get Denver. That they should win rather easily. There are no sure things in the playoffs. Just look at yesterday's Broncos game.

Let the games begin

 It's playoff time... or as Jim Mora would say... Playoffs?!!!! Playoffs?!!!!

The word may have struck a nerve with Mora, but it's the favorite word of NFL fans. And it starts today.

It all kicks off with wild-card weekend, a weekend that the Pats have often had the luxury of watching along with the rest of us this past decade. The four matchups are often some of the best football games of the year. This year should be no different. So who will win? That's the best part... they are hard games to predict. But what the heck...

Cincinnati 30, Houston 17

New Orleans 37, Detroit 27

NY Giants 20, Atlanta 17

Denver 17, Pittsburgh 16

Tournament teams

The very entertaining 2011 NFL regular season -- the one that almost wasn't -- has come to an end. Tebow. The Pack's run at 16-0. The Jets' collapse. Passing records falling like Ocho trying to catch a ball. The Harbaugh brothers. Very entertaining indeed. I thought the Pats would barely win the AFC East with an 11-5 record. They won the division a little easier than that. The Pats are the top seed in the AFC again. The defending champs are the top in the NFC. Will they stage a rematch of the '96 Super Bowl? New Orleans, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, or San Fran might have something to say about that. Here's my final Top 12. Why 12? Because that's how many playoff teams there are.

1. Green Bay Packers (15-1): Can they repeat like the '04 Pats? Yes they can. Will they? We'll see. Aaron Rodgers and his offense can score from anywhere on the field. Ryan Grant's return to health has gone under the radar but will be big in the playoffs. The Packers D gives up just as many yards as the Pats, but none of the experts seem to be concerned about that. Preseason rank: #3.

2. New Orleans Saints (13-3): Can they stop the Pack from back-to-back titles? Yes they can. Will they? We'll see. Drew Brees is unstoppable. He led my nephew Pete to a fantasy title almost single-handed. He looks ready to do the same in real football. If I were given a grand and told to put it on one team right now ... it would be the Saints. Preseason rank: #7.

3. New England Patriots (13-3): Since the two teams ranked ahead of the Pats are both in the NFC, that puts the Pats in the Super Bowl. Right? But that's getting way ahead of things. First they have to win a home playoff game. If it's Cincy or Denver coming to town in two weeks, I think the team gets the playoff monkey off its back. If it's the Steelers, well I think the Pats will still get that win but that is typed with a lot less confidence. Two words: Brady. Belichick. Preseason rank: #2.

4. Baltimore Ravens (12-4): The team that has the best chance of ruining another January for Pats fans. I've been expecting the team in black and purple to make a deep playoff run for a few years now. It's still hasn't happened. And the Hall of Fame defense is getting a little old. If the offense can make some plays they will be hard to beat. There is one guy I don't want to see walking into Gillette this month... Terrell Suggs. Preseason rank: #4.

5. San Francisco 49ers (13-3): The Niners will get a bit overshadowed by all the talk about the Pack and the Saints. They shouldn't. They are the dark horse that just might lap the field with their defense. They allowed the second fewest points this season. Patrick Willis is a beast. As is running back Frank Gore. The key will be how does young QB Alex Smith handle the playoff pressure. Preseason rank: #16.

6. Detroit Lions (10-6): Any playoff game that the Detroit Lions are playing in I am watching. This team is entertaining on so many levels. The passing game is explosive. As are the tempers of the head coach and the best defensive player. Big passes. Big penalties. You never know what can happen when the Lions are on the field. Good and bad. Preseason rank: #17.

7. Atlanta Falcons (10-6): The Falcons did not look sharp in their game against New Orleans two weeks ago. Not sharp at all. But the Saints can do that to teams. Atlanta has some talent. Matt Ryan leads a strong passing game and that's balanced with a power running game. The defense makes plays. Atlanta is very strong at home. Unfortunately they won't be having any home playoff games. Preseason rank: #6.

8. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4): The Steelers would be a few rungs higher if not for the small issue of their starting running back and starting quarterback being unable to walk. But Mike Tomlin's Steelers have always been dangerous when wounded. It's the signature of his teams. Tough. But their road through the playoffs will be just a little too tough this time around. Preseason rank: #8.

9. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7): I think Cincy goes into Houston and wins easily. So they get the nod in the rankings. The Bengals started fast this year, running up wins against a group of mediocre teams. Their second half schedule was filled with playoff teams -- and losses. But I was at the Bengals loss at Baltimore in  November and I liked what I saw. The Bengals are a good team that has played some good football but lost to better teams. That changes. Preseason rank: #31.

10. Houston Texans (10-6): The Texans would be higher too if not for the small issue of the team being on its fourth starting QB. If healthy, the Texans would be a major threat. They are still a threat thanks to their defense, but not a major one. The Texans are hoping TJ Yates is healthy enough to play. That's what kind of year it has been for Houston. Hoping TJ Yates can play. Cincy's defense is probably hoping that too. Preseason rank: #9.

11. New York Giants (9-7): The best pass rush in the playoffs. Is that enough to launch Eli on another improbable Super Bowl run? I hope not. But any Tom Coughlin team is dangerous. Any team with little Manning is dangerous. Any team with both Bradshaw and Jacobs at running back is dangerous. Any team with Cruz and Nicks at WR is dangerous. I might have the Giants ranked too low. Preseason rank: #18.

12. Denver Broncos (8-8): I don't have the Broncos ranked too low. That's for sure. What the heck happened to Tim Tebow? Ever since "SNL" did that Jesus skit the team hasn't won a game. The "SNL" jinx? Hmmm... Not surprisingly it didn't take NFL coaches long to start slowing Tebow down. I caught the last quarter of the team's loss to KC. Tebow looked like he had regressed back to his first few weeks. Or maybe the whole offense had. They come into the playoffs on a three-game losing streak. A well-earned losing streak. Preseason rank: #23.

Dishonorable mention:: I've been waiting to write this for two years... The New York Jets. (Sorry Jim). Rex Ryan, Mr. Big Mouth and Bigger Toes, reportedly cried when addressing his players the day after their season ended in flames. Really, there were almost actual flames. Team "captain" Santonio Holmes was benched after getting into an argument in the huddle. LT was his usual back-stabbing self at the end. Ryan cried. Bursting ... into ... flames. Mt. Ryan has already started making his Super Bowl predictions for next year. It was kind of laughable the previous two years after the team lost in the AFC title game. This year, after their train wreck 8-8 finish, it's Stooges funny. Preseason rank: #1. Very funny.

Final quarter

There are four games left in the NFL regular season. One quarter of football to go. Some teams have firmly established themselves as the top contenders once the tournament starts. Some are still battling to find their spot. Several of the divisions are pretty much settled (like the AFC East) but the fight for the wild-card spots among some good teams should make for an entertaining stretch run.

1. Green Bay (12-0): I'm rooting for the Pack to go 16-0. I'm hoping if they are the second team to accomplish that feat then Mr. Kraft will finally take down the perfect regular season banner hanging in the North end zone. Please take it down! As for the Packers... They look like a team ready to defend their title come playoff time. Rodgers is having an MVP season. And the defense is good enough.

2. San Francisco (10-2): The Niners have already clinched the NFC West. Not much of an accomplishment. But they are also in position to take the #2 seed behind Green Bay. That is an accomplishment for a team that self destructed time and time again last year. Jim Harbaugh is going to be coach of the year. His true coaching ability will be tested in about a month.

3. Baltimore Ravens (9-3): The question to ask in ranking the 9-3 teams is who can beat who. The Ravens have beaten the Steelers twice and if they were playing the Pats, Saints, or Texans in a playoff game they would be the pick of most people. They have lost a few games against bad teams (the Jags and the Seahawks) but when they are playing in a game with playoff intensity they have just that -- playoff intensity. Their pounding running game and pounding defense will make them very hard to beat.

4. New England Patriots (9-3): The mood of the Blabosphere seems to be that the Patriots are a paper contender. True, the only people the defense scares are the fans. But a team that has Brady, Welker, Gronk, Wilfork, Carter, Mankins, Hernandez, Mayo, Branch, BenJarvus, Ninko (just to name a few) is one tough team. And dangerous. The defense took a lot of heat in the one-and-done playoff losses the last two years. But it was the offense not clicking on all cylinders that really hurt. If the offense can get on a roll come January it's going to be a fun ride.

5. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3): I know. The Steelers beat the Pats just a month ago. But in the playoffs the Pats have owned the Steelers time and time again. I don't think that will change if they should meet again. Even at Heinz. It still amazes me that a QB as Big as Ben can avoid pass rushers like he does. The two-time Super Bowl champ is great. And he has a great group of young receivers. All I want for Christmas is a Steelers-Pats AFC title game at Gillette.

6. New Orleans Saints (9-3): NFL analysts ask the same question week after week. Who can stop the Pack? The Saints. That's who. Drew Brees often gets left out of the Brady-Rodgers MVP debates but he shouldn't. The Saints stumbled as defending champs. Much like the Pats did in '02. We know what the Pats did the next two years. The Saints may be that team.

7. Houston Texans (9-3): Houston had the playoff door opened for them when Peyton Manning went down for the season. But then All Pro receiver Andre Johnson got hurt. Then RB Arian Foster went down. Just when they came back starting QB Matt Schaub was lost for the year. Then his backup Matt Leinert followed him to the IR. And yet the Texans keep winning. It's like the Texans know they will never get this good a shot to win their division again.

8. Detroit Lions (7-5): The talk of the early season is now the talk of the late season. But for very different reasons. The Lions started off 5-0, more than living up to preseason expectations. Those expectations were based on an aggressive defense but it was the Stafford-to-Johnson connection (two TDs per game) that was key to the fast start. The offense has cooled off and the defense has taken aggressiveness to the level of stupidity. Now all the talk is how out of control the Lions are.

9. New York Jets (7-5): There they sit. Gang Green. Mt. Ryan's boys. Once again battling just to make the playoffs after an off-season of predictions of how they were going to dominate the league. Once again dealing with inconsistencies from their quarterback and their coaching staff. Once again having me hoping that they don't make the playoffs for fear that once they get in they will do some damage -- in Foxborough.

10. Denver Broncos (7-5): What the hell are they doing on this list? Oops. Sorry Tim Tebow. I mean what the heck are they doing on this list? The Denver Tebows are the story of 2011. The team started off 1-4 with  Kyle Orton as their QB. He is no longer their QB. Rookie Tim Tebow took his place and has ran (and sometimes passed) his way into the hearts of Denver fans.

11. Dallas Cowboys (7-5): The 'Boys have had one of the craziest regular seasons I have seen in a long time. The have blown games that they should have won to the Jets, the Lions, the Pats, and most painfully, the Cards last week. Dallas could easily be 9-3. But they're not. That must be driving Jerry Jones crazy. The Cowboys will be tough to beat in the playoffs if they can stop beating themselves.

12. Atlanta Falcons (7-5): There are a total of eight teams with a 7-5 record. They are all good teams. Not great. The best five are listed here. (The other three -- Oakland, Tennessee, Chicago -- are not far behind when healthy.) I give Atlanta the nod over them because they have a good balance of offense and defense. And they went 14-2 last year.

Dishonorable mention: I could put the 0-12 Colts here again. But I'm going to take it easy on Indy fans. This quarter the honor goes to the New York Football Giants. I know, they are 6-6 and a pretty good team. And they have had a brutal schedule. But since they pulled off another last second comeback to beat the Pats at Gillette a month ago to go to 6-2 they have lost every game. They might not even make the playoffs. They were talking like champs when they left Foxborough. Way to build on that momentum.

Half 'n half

Every team in the NFL (including the Pats) has now played at least eight games. It's the half-way point of the season. What a first half it has been. There was a lot of talk in the first few weeks about the trend towards 45-40 games. A lot of wasted talk. The defenses -- as they always do -- are starting to assert themselves. The scores are dropping along with the temperatures.

The defending champs are the last unbeaten team and look to be helmet and shoulder pads above the rest of the field. Other than that the league is a free-for-all. Eleven of the 16 teams in the AFC are .500 or better. The AFC North alone has three teams with six wins. The NFC has nine teams at .500 or better. Take away the NFC West (please) and the quality of play throughout the league is as competitive as it's ever been. The football has been highly entertaining. The playoff races should come down to the wire in several divisions. The NFL Redzone is going to get a workout.

The league's top team is an easy one. After that it's a battle for We're No. 2!

1. Green Bay Packers (8-0): The Pack has outscored its opponents by almost 100 points. Aaron Rodgers is having what could be the first of several MVP years. Brett Favre will soon be a distant memory for Green Bay fans. Interestingly, the Pack's pass defense is second-to-last in the league. Maybe pass D isn't that important after all. I thought the Pack was a decent team that got hot at the right time last year to win their title. I was wrong. They were a great team that finally started putting it all together. A Pats-Pack rematch in the Super Bowl would be great.

2a. San Francisco 49ers (7-1): The Niners have only allowed 118 points. By far the lowest in the league. That's how you turn an underachieving team into a division champ. The rest of the NFC West has combined for just five wins. Two less than San Fran. Pete Carroll won't be sneaking into the playoffs this year. The Niners could wrap the division up by the time we all sit down for our turkey dinner. That really isn't a good thing for anyone, including the Niners.

2b. Baltimore Ravens (6-2): The Ravens accomplished their main goal for the regular season. Sweep the Steelers. But the Bengals were on the other side waiting for them. Now the Ravens will have a chance to sweep the Bengals and take the brutal AFC North. I think they will. Anquan Boldin has started to look like he did in Arizona. That makes Baltimore very dangerous.

2c. New England Patriots (5-3): They may have lost their last two games and their offense may be "struggling," but the Pats are still a top five team in the league. Hopefully they will prove me right Sunday night. The Pats had an off game in Pittsburgh coming out of their bye but losing at Heinz is no disgrace. Neither is losing to the Giants in a tight battle. The Pats -- as they often do -- got away from the run in the two losses. They need to get back to it. And -- stop me if you've heard this before -- they need more of a pass rush.

2d. New York Giants (6-2): Eli Bleeping Manning. Who would have thought that little Manning would ultimately become more of a pain in Belichick's side than his big brother? He pulled out another clutch win last week and has Tom Coughlin's G-Men back on top in the NFC East. They have maybe the best pass rush in the game and some young, explosive receivers to go along with a pounding running game. This is a very good team. They will be tough in the playoffs.

2e. New York Jets (5-3): How good are the Jets? They sure looked bad in their three-game losing streak. And they really haven't looked all that great in their current three-game winning streak. But the defense is starting to play like a Rex Ryan D and the running game is starting to show signs of life. And the big guy on the sideline is still doing a good job coaching. They play the Pats Sunday night and then have to fly out to Denver for a Thursday night game. Two games in five nights that could decide their playoff fate.

2f. New Orleans Saints (6-3): The Saints biggest problem so far has been winning on the road. Brees and the offense are averaging a league best 445 yards a game. That will win just about anywhere. The Saints are averaging about 320 yards passing and 125 yards rushing. That's balance. Darren Sproles was by far the best free agent pickup this year. He can do it all. The Saints D is even improved, averaging in the middle of the pack in most categories.

2g. Detroit Lions (6-2): The Lions were the hot story of the early season but have stumbled just a bit. Just a bit. Their red-hot offense has cooled down due to no running game. That has put more pressure on Stafford and he has looked more like a young QB lately. But the defense is still fierce. Surprisingly, Detroit is unbeaten on the road but only 2-2 in Motown. The Lions biggest problem is they are in the Pack's division so their only path to the playoffs is the wild card. Not an easy path in the NFC.

2h. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3): The Steelers got stomped at home on opening day by Baltimore. They looked old. Since then they have gone 5-2. Steelers! Geez. They just keep winning. They have had a a habit the last decade of following up a great year (AFC champs) with a bad year. I was betting on that again. It doesn't look like a good bet. Big Ben keeps getting it done. Mike Wallace has taken over for Hines Ward very nicely. The defense continues to play solid, ranking third in the league in yards per game and fifth in points. Guess they aren't so old after all.

2i. Houston Texans (6-3): The team that is flying under the radar in the AFC. Houston usually has succumbed to the Colts by this point of the season. Freed from that shadow, the Texans are steadily heading towards their first division title (and playoff spot) in franchise history. The defense is leading the way. Houston is first in yards allowed, second against the pass, and fourth against the run. Mario Williams was worth the pick. The fact that they are winning without Andre Johnson says a lot.

2j. Cincinnati Bengals (6-2): They haven't played the Steelers or the Ravens yet. Actually, they've barely played anyone. But they are 6-2 and their defense is playing great. Of all the teams at the top of their division, the Bengals are the biggest question. As in... Who the hell plays for the Bengals? Rookie Andy Dalton from Texas Christian is playing solid rookie quarterback. Not making too many mistakes. First-round pick A.J. Green is playing outstanding rookie wideout. But it's the D that is the story. The Bengals are second against the rush and only allowing 17 points a game. If they keep that up they should make the playoffs.

2k. Atlanta Falcons (5-3): Another team flying below the radar. The Falcons had the best record in the NFC last season only to get bounced at home in their first playoff game. Like the Pats. Unlike the Pats, they have a defense that can stop people. Matt Ryan and Michael Turner give the Falcons balance on offense. Julio Jones is another rookie wideout who would have looked good in a Pats uniform. The Falcons are better on the road this year which should help them come playoff time.

Dishonorable mention: I said at the start of the year this could be a rough one for Indianapolis Colts fans. I had no idea how rough. 0-8. Wow. I guess Manning really was the reason that team won all those games. GM Bill Polian should be embarrassed. He apparently thought Manning would stay healthy and play another ten years. Because it's clear there was no Plan B. Sorry, Colts fans. You'll have lots of free time on Sundays come January. I know that's not very appealing since you live in Indianapolis.