Forward thinking

There's still a lot of looking back going on regarding the Pats' disappointing loss to the Ravens. Not here. As coach says, we're moving on. And looking ahead. I'm already anticipating the draft in late April.

It looks like -- other than the usual need for a pass rusher and a cornerback -- that the Pats are in need of a big, fast wide receiver. A quick look at some mock drafts online shows there are a few that would fit the bill and could be around when the Pats are on the clock in the first round. There's DeAndre Hopkins of Clemson, Keenan Allen of Cal, or Terrance Williams of Baylor. Any of them would look good catching passes from Tom Brady.

Belichick hasn't stocked up on picks as usual. The team only has five going into the draft. A first, a second, a third, and then two in the seventh. You have to think he will be dealing some of those five to either add some picks in the middle rounds or load up for the 2014 draft. I would love to see Belichick deal Welker (sadly, I think it's the smart thing to do) and the Pats' first-rounder (29th) to the Lions for the fifth pick in the draft and either their third or fourth round pick. The Pats could then go get Bama cornerback Dee Milliner and grab a wideout in the second round. But trying to predict what Belichick will do in the draft is an exercise in lunacy unless you predict he will pick at least one tight end.

But it's not the players yet to come that make looking ahead fun for Pats' fans. It's all the guys currently on the roster. Even though the Pats are led by a future hall of famer in his final few years (sob), he is surrounded by one of the youngest rosters in the league. More than half the players on the team are 25 or younger. Especially on defense. Jones. Hightower. McCourty. Dennard. Spikes. Deaderick. Francis. Wilson. There's a lot of young talent there. Mixed with the veteran core of Big Vince, Mayo, Love, and Ninko and the defense should keep moving in the right direction. A little better coaching might help, too. The defense doesn't have to be great. That's the offense's job. The defense just has to be good. It hasn't quite reached that point yet. But it's getting there.

Two of the biggest complaints about the Pats after their loss to the Ravens were that they weren't big and tough enough and that they didn't have enough explosive plays. The solutions to those problems may already be on the roster.

The first issue -- not big and tough enough -- is solved every time Gronk steps on the field. He's due to be healthy come playoff time ... for a change. And if he is, he might be joined by Jake Ballard. Remember him? He's the tight end Belichick stole from the Giants before last season who has spent the year rehabbing from a knee injury. Another young, big, talented tight end. If Gronk and Ballard can stay healthy they will be a force catching passes and blocking everything in sight. And that will allow Hernandez to stop wasting his time blocking and play the slot. On defense the toughness level may have been raised with the acquisition of D lineman Armond Armstead from the Canadian Football League. The CFL you ask? Yes. The CFL. Scouts have reportedly said signing him is like getting a high first-round pick. We'll see.

As for big plays... Olympic track speedster Will Demps should be ready to make an impact. A complaint heard each week at the tailgate was "Why did we waste a roster spot for Shiancoe when we could have saved it for Demps down the stretch?" We'll soon find out if Demps can provide the big play on special teams the Pats have been missing.

We'll soon find out something else, too ... If the Pats can put another disappointing home playoff loss behind them and make another run at Lombardi #4.

2013 would look pretty good on one of those banners.

Down and out ... again

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Ravens 28, Patriots 13 (1/20/'13): Well, I didn't see that coming. I don't mean the Ravens winning and moving on to the Super Bowl. The Ravens are a very good team. I knew they could win. But I didn't think the Patriots would score just one touchdown. And no points in the second half. Zero. None. Zip.

Did anyone see that coming?

I have not turned on ESPN or the NFL Network since the game. And I won't for a while. Staying strictly with the NHL Network (thank you, league-run networks) and the Bruins. Perfect timing for the return of hockey. I'm also staying far away from Sportsblab Radio. I don't need to hear the post mortem and T-Sizzle gloating. Watching it in person was bad enough.

But I did see a few headlines online while trying to catch up on non-football news (Obama is president again! Cool.) saying the Patriots lost because they weren't tough enough. Really? That's it? Welker's not tough? Spikes? Hernandez? Solder and Vollmer? Brady? Vince? Jones? Mayo? Not tough enough? Come on. They lost because the offense picked a bad time -- yet again -- to have a bad game. At least that's how it looked to me. They carried the play in the first half but just couldn't get rolling. It was a weird game. Like their loss to the Jets in 2010. Those games happen to even the best teams. You just hope they don't happen in the playoffs.

The Pats -- without Gronk -- weren't good enough on Sunday. But not tough enough? I don't remember the Ravens looking that tough when they were losing four out of their last five games of the season. In fact, they didn't even look like a playoff team.  But they do now. And they could very well win that Super Bowl that many (including me) have been expecting them to win for about five years. The Ravens have gone to Denver and New England and won tough playoff games on the road. They have earned it.

The Patriots? They have lost a home playoff game for the third time in four years. That's a discouraging way to end what have been some great seasons. But let's not forget that there are almost no players left on this team from 2007, the greatest team ever. It's only been five years and the Pats have already rebuilt the team and been to a Super Bowl and hosted back-to-back AFC title games. They are really entering the final stage of the rebuilding now that they have very good running backs who should only get better and an improving (slowly) defense. These last two years the Pats should have been battling for a wild card spot. Instead they were battling for another title. No matter how disappointing the ending, the last few years have provided a lot of fun.

And that's really what it's all about. Fun. That feeling on a Wednesday in September. Or November. Or January. That feeling when the week is dragging when you look ahead to Sunday and the Pats. And that feeling on Monday after they win another big game. The Pats delivered more than their share of fun -- again -- this season. And it doesn't look like it's going to end any time soon.

Football weather

TALES FROM THE TAILGATE
Patriots 17, Titans 14 (1/10/'04): The forecast for tailgating before today's AFC Championship game is promising. When me and my friends roll into the Enchanted Forest lot about six hours before kickoff temperatures are expected to be around 40 under partly sunny skies, albeit with a steady wind. Perfect day for grilling, drinking, and talking football. If only the game was scheduled to start while the sun was still in the sky. It's not. Kickoff will be around 6:30 and during the game temperatures are expected to go down into the 20s and the winds are expected to go up. Wind chill near zero. Hmmmm. Where I have heard that before? Right. The coldest game in Patriots' history.

The record shows that it was four degrees above zero at game time when the Patriots met the Titans at Gillette for a playoff game in the winter of '04. I guess that is the temperature at which vodka freezes. And the temperature where the brain goes numb. Well maybe that has as much to do with the vodka as the temperature.

The main characters in these tales were all present for one of the great playoff games not just in Pats history but NFL history. Shep (the key to us moving from Section 311 in the old stadium to Section 109 in the new stadium... a story for another day), Mark (a drunken discussion one night led to him standing in a snowstorm for hours to buy four season tickets), Bergs (the guy who makes sure there's no meat left uneaten), Billy (there's one in every group), Matt (Shep's son who was new to the group at that point but would later become so dedicated to the tailgates that he would make the drive to and from New York for the games), and Toph (Mark's brother and master Dead-mix maker) brought as many things to keep us warm as we could think of. We were joined by my sister and her son, Pete. They scored tickets online and drove down from Maine to stand in the cold and tailgate with us. Since it was probably much colder in Maine (isn't it always?) I guess it wasn't that crazy.

My friends and I had season tickets since 1994 and during that time we enjoyed an incredible... almost ridiculous... run of great weather for football games in New England. And I'm not just talking about the 70 degree early season September games. There were late December games in T-shirts and shorts (give him a day above 40 degrees and Bergs will wear shorts). There were many times as we sat there in the parking lot of the old Schaefer/Sullivan/Foxboro Stadium enjoying the meal and drinks of the day where one of us would be heard to say "One of these days I hope we get one of those really really really cold days. Football weather. How fun would that be?" As we unloaded our gear that day I thought of those words. Actually, it was so cold I could almost see my thoughts as one can see your breath. "... one of those really really really cold days." Uh huh.

My personal plan was to bring as many layers as I thought I could fit into and slowly add them as the temperature around and inside my body dropped. A normal number of layers for a cold day is three maybe four. That day I had 10. Thirty minutes into the four-hour pregame tailgate and I was on layer number six. Coincidentally the same number of vodka and cranberry juices that Bergs was on. We all have our own way of keeping warm. Everywhere you looked around the stadium lot you could see barrels and fire pits blazing as men and women bundled in what looked like very flammable clothing stood just inches away from the flames. At one point a barrel positioned too close to a porta-john tipped over and the plastic toilet caught on fire, the flames slowly rising higher and higher. The fire engine on standby at the lot had to fight its way through the growing crowd gathered around the burning toilet for warmth. When the fire was extinguished there was an audible groan. Just the sight of the fire had made everyone in the lot forget how cold we were for a little while.

We cooked up our usual assortment of steaks, sausages, stews, and burgers with each of us trying to eat the food as quickly as we could before all the heat had been drained from the meat ... which was usually in less than a minute. A good two hours into the tailgate I stood next to Bergs and Mark talking excitedly about the game but they looked at me as if I was Kenny from "South Park." My "I think we can get some pressure on McNair and force him to make mistakes" turned into "I thmmm sommm prmmmm formmmm mmmak mmmtakes." Bergs, using a spoon to break up the chunks of frozen vodka in his drink, said "I think your face is frozen. I have no idea what you just said." So I spent the next 15 minutes in the car getting the feeling back in my face and upon stepping back outside added layers seven and eight.

As game time drew near we packed everything up, dumped the hot charcoals in a pile on the pavement, inserted the hand and feet warmers into our gloves and boots, and poured ourselves a drink to sober up before we headed in (Dunkin's coffee and Grand Marnier with a little whipped cream blended in). As we stood around waiting for everyone to get their layers in place, Billy said happily "These feet warmers are really great. My feet are already getting really toasty!" We all looked at him and laughed. And then Mark said very matter of factly, "Billy, you're standing in the pile of red hot coals. Your boots are on fire." It was not the first tailgating incident involving Billy and fire and it wouldn't be the last.

We put out Billy's boots and then joined the thousands of faceless fans streaming into the stadium in the hopes that the lights and the body heat from the crowd would provide some warmth. It didn't. It was just as cold inside the stadium. Not too cold to continue drinking beer, but surely too cold to play good football. Tom Brady proved it wasn't too cold to play good football when he connected with Bethel Johnson (remember him?) on a bomb down the middle of the field just five minutes into the game. Everyone in the crowd was so grateful to have something to jump around and high five about that we celebrated that touchdown for a good 10 minutes.

The Titans showed they could also play some good football in bitter cold and the back-and-forth game was tied 14-14 with just more than four minutes to play. The tension was as tough to take as the cold. Adam Vinatieri (remember him?) stepped onto the field to try to kick a 46-yard field goal. Vinatieri is known for his two kicks in the Snow Bowl against the Raiders and of course his two Super Bowl game winners, but his kick in the ice cold against Tennessee is the one I will remember the most. Why? Because I can still hear the sound of his foot hitting the ball. It sounded like a cannon because the ball was so frozen. But somehow #4, as he always did, managed to get that cinder block of a ball in the air and between the uprights to give the Pats a 17-14 lead. The Pats held on for the win and the crowd, feeling almost toasty, celebrated as the players hurried for the warmth of the locker room.

Every now and then, even on a warm summer day, I get a little chill inside. I think it's leftover from that day in 2004. Fortunately I don't think I'll need to set my boots on fire today. It's not supposed to be that cold.

Title search

Championship Sunday. I'm really looking forward to going to the game (bring on the cold) but there's something to be said about getting together with a group and watching the NFC title game in the afternoon as a warm-up to the Pats-Ravens AFC rematch. Now that's a great day of football as only the NFL and flat-screen TVs can bring it to you.

Last weekend's Divisional Round was one of the most entertaining weekends of playoff football in a long, long time. Baltimore's double-OT back-and-forth upset of the Broncos and Atlanta's last-second field goal victory against Seattle were instant classics. But even the Pats' rather easy win over Houston and San Fran's similarly decisive win over Green Bay were tight contests for a good part of the game and then became displays by great offensive players.

I went 3-1 in carefully (i.e. no clue)  picking games in the first weekend and 1-3 last weekend. 4-4. That's why I don't bet on the NFL anymore. But if I were to bet this weekend ....

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP

Ravens (12-6) at Patriots (13-4): Have I mentioned this is a rematch? Last year's game came down to a last-second missed kick but I've watched the game several times and my take on it is the Patriots controlled that game most of the way. If Brady didn't -- to use his words -- "suck" the Pats win that game by double-digits. Watch the film. If Brady doesn't turn the ball over the Ravens never get a chance to make a comeback. This year's Patriots team (even minus Gronk) is better than last year's. The Patriots are fast and young. The Ravens are fast and older. The Ravens' D used to exert its will against opponents. It's not that kind of defense anymore. The Ravens used to hold teams to about 12 points a game. Now it's unusual when they hold a team to just 20. The Patriots offense is superior to the Baltimore defense. But the Baltimore offense is superior to the New England defense. So it's a wash. The clear edges come in the home field and in the coaching categories. Patriots 31, Ravens 27

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP

49ers (12-4-1) at Falcons (14-3): This may be the most important home-field advantage in the history of home-field advantages. If this game were being played in San Francisco against the confident and powerful Niners the Falcons wouldn't stand a chance. But it's in Atlanta. In a dome. On a fast track. That gives the Falcons a chance. But not a great chance. Niners' quarterback Colin Kaepernick looks unstoppable right now. He might get stopped, but it won't be by the Atlanta defense. San Fran's offense is peaking at the right time. The San Fran D has been peaking for about three years now. Altanta quarterback Matt Ryan has lots of great weapons in Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez. But he's going to have a hard time finding them with the nasty Niner D in his face. And then there's the attitude difference. Atlanta raced out to an early lead against Seattle last week and then seemed to ease up thinking the game was over. In the playoffs against a team that had come back from down 14 the week before. Meanwhile, the Niners were in a dogfight against the Packers and then blew the game open in the fourth. There was no let up by the Niners.  49ers 34, Falcons 20

Game face

Coach Bill on the game tomorrow against the Ravens ... "If you can't get excited for the AFC Championship game, what can you get excited for?"

He sure looks excited. Doesn't he?

How it all began

The Pats are one win away from going to their sixth Super Bowl in just more than a decade. I've erased the memory of the last two, but the first three will be burned in my mind forever. Watching the "Three Games to Glory" DVDs sure helps.

I made a copy of this old grainy VHS tape when the actor Dennis Hopper died a few years ago. It ran before the Pats' opener the season after they won their first Super Bowl. Remember the first Super Bowl victory? It's still hard to believe it actually happened. If it never happens again (hopefully it will), Pats fans will always have the memory of just how fun it was when a young Tom Brady stepped on the field and transformed one of the worst franchises in the league into one of the all-time best. Dennis Hopper captures the moment the way only he can. And then he predicts the future... "Every year, man! Every year!"

Divisional playoff rewind

The Patriots destroyed the Tim Tebow-led Broncos last year to earn the right to host the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship game. The momentum from that romp did not carry over to the title game as Brady struggled all day and the Pats escaped with a three-point victory. This year the Pats roll into the AFC title rematch after beating the Texans 41-28. Will the offense sputter again and cough the ball up or will it click (even without Gronk) the way it is capable of and put the Ravens away? The defense is neither awful nor great. It will do the best it can. It's the offense that will decide if the Pats get another shot at their fourth Lombardi.

GOOD

• Shane Vereen (and Stevan Ridley): Vereen was actually drafted before Ridley. He was taken in the second round, followed by Ridley in the third round. With the need for a pass rusher and any kind of defensive back I was puzzled that Belichick took two running backs. I wasn't sure what his plan was. I guess I know now. Two very good backs (like tight ends) are better than one. Vereen had Kevin Faulk type game, making big plays on the ground and in the air. Ridley, who has seen a little less playing time since having some fumble issues, wasn't on the field at the start of the game but finished with 82 yards on 15 carries. Good luck stopping both these guys.
• Aaron Hernandez (and Wes Welker): That goes for these two guys, too. Losing Gronk is huge, but it's not as huge when you still have Hernandez. This was supposed to be his year, but he hurt his ankle in Week 2 and it took him a while to get back up to speed. He looks like he's back. He had some big catches against Houston. And when the defense shifts to stop Hernandez, that opens things up for Welker. Brady has plenty of weapons, but none bigger than these two. Good luck keeping them out of the end zone.
• Zoltan Mesko (and Stephen Gostkowski): The guys who sit behind us at Gillette say the darndest things. One of them last week said "Mesko is the worst punter in the league. He never kicks any long ones." Hmmmm. Wonder why that is? Could be that the Pats offense rarely gets stuffed deep in its own territory so he doesn't get too many chances. What he does get a lot of chances to do is drop the ball inside the other team's 20, and he was one of the best in the league at that. Zoltan got the chance to make some long kicks against Houston and he showed what he can do. 61 yards. 57 yards. 50 yards. 64 yards. And Gosty was solid again with some deep kickoffs and two field goals. 

BAD

• Gronk (and Woody): There are injuries and then there are injuries. The loss of Gronk is a bummer. Not just because he's one of the most unstoppable offensive forces in the game but because if the Pats were to win the Super Bowl how fun would it be to see Gronk celebrating? Pretty fun. Woody hurt his hand on the first play of the Houston game and never came back. But the word is he will be ready for the Ravens. Hopefully the Pats have had their share of injuries for the season.
• Kick coverage (and pass coverage): What's up with the kick coverage? It's been shaky too often this season. Against the Texans it was almost fatal. The Pats better tighten it up and fast. The Raven's Jacoby Jones is one of the league's best kick returners. The pass coverage needs to tighten up, too. (Is that even possible?). The Ravens' offense is getting lot of hype. More than it deserves. Especially Flacco. But one thing they are doing well is hit the big play. Which is the one thing the Pats' D can't stop. Tighten up. 

The Ravens wanted this rematch. But their plan was to hold it in Baltimore. After they pulled out a come-from-behind win in Week 3 and raced out to a 9-2 record it looked like they would. But a late-season collapse allowed the Pats to easily pass them in the playoff seedings. The rematch is on. And it's back at Gillette. It's going to be frigid. I can't wait.