Divisional playoff rewind

The Patriots destroyed the Tim Tebow-led Broncos last year to earn the right to host the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship game. The momentum from that romp did not carry over to the title game as Brady struggled all day and the Pats escaped with a three-point victory. This year the Pats roll into the AFC title rematch after beating the Texans 41-28. Will the offense sputter again and cough the ball up or will it click (even without Gronk) the way it is capable of and put the Ravens away? The defense is neither awful nor great. It will do the best it can. It's the offense that will decide if the Pats get another shot at their fourth Lombardi.

GOOD

• Shane Vereen (and Stevan Ridley): Vereen was actually drafted before Ridley. He was taken in the second round, followed by Ridley in the third round. With the need for a pass rusher and any kind of defensive back I was puzzled that Belichick took two running backs. I wasn't sure what his plan was. I guess I know now. Two very good backs (like tight ends) are better than one. Vereen had Kevin Faulk type game, making big plays on the ground and in the air. Ridley, who has seen a little less playing time since having some fumble issues, wasn't on the field at the start of the game but finished with 82 yards on 15 carries. Good luck stopping both these guys.
• Aaron Hernandez (and Wes Welker): That goes for these two guys, too. Losing Gronk is huge, but it's not as huge when you still have Hernandez. This was supposed to be his year, but he hurt his ankle in Week 2 and it took him a while to get back up to speed. He looks like he's back. He had some big catches against Houston. And when the defense shifts to stop Hernandez, that opens things up for Welker. Brady has plenty of weapons, but none bigger than these two. Good luck keeping them out of the end zone.
• Zoltan Mesko (and Stephen Gostkowski): The guys who sit behind us at Gillette say the darndest things. One of them last week said "Mesko is the worst punter in the league. He never kicks any long ones." Hmmmm. Wonder why that is? Could be that the Pats offense rarely gets stuffed deep in its own territory so he doesn't get too many chances. What he does get a lot of chances to do is drop the ball inside the other team's 20, and he was one of the best in the league at that. Zoltan got the chance to make some long kicks against Houston and he showed what he can do. 61 yards. 57 yards. 50 yards. 64 yards. And Gosty was solid again with some deep kickoffs and two field goals. 

BAD

• Gronk (and Woody): There are injuries and then there are injuries. The loss of Gronk is a bummer. Not just because he's one of the most unstoppable offensive forces in the game but because if the Pats were to win the Super Bowl how fun would it be to see Gronk celebrating? Pretty fun. Woody hurt his hand on the first play of the Houston game and never came back. But the word is he will be ready for the Ravens. Hopefully the Pats have had their share of injuries for the season.
• Kick coverage (and pass coverage): What's up with the kick coverage? It's been shaky too often this season. Against the Texans it was almost fatal. The Pats better tighten it up and fast. The Raven's Jacoby Jones is one of the league's best kick returners. The pass coverage needs to tighten up, too. (Is that even possible?). The Ravens' offense is getting lot of hype. More than it deserves. Especially Flacco. But one thing they are doing well is hit the big play. Which is the one thing the Pats' D can't stop. Tighten up. 

The Ravens wanted this rematch. But their plan was to hold it in Baltimore. After they pulled out a come-from-behind win in Week 3 and raced out to a 9-2 record it looked like they would. But a late-season collapse allowed the Pats to easily pass them in the playoff seedings. The rematch is on. And it's back at Gillette. It's going to be frigid. I can't wait.

Nice and cheesy

DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF GAME
Patriots 41, Texans 28 (1/13/'13): OK. Shaughnessy was right. The Texans are no match for the Patriots. But I was right too. Mac and cheese is an excellent tailgate food. Especially homemade mac and cheese on a 50 degree January playoff day.

I can't remember the last time I was as nervous about a Patriots' game as I was about the rematch with the Texans ... and about the tailgate food. I was running late (a two-week old baby can do that) and didn't have time to fully cook the mac and cheese. Fortunately Shep bought a portable oven a few years ago so both trays were able to cook another 30 minutes at 375. They came out great. Just like the game.

My stomach was full but still nervous as me and my two Don Julios settled into section 109. A few seconds later my stomach was more than nervous. The Texans' Danieal Manning took the opening kickoff 94 yards to the Pats' 12-yard line and would have scored easily if it wasn't for some championship hustle by Devin McCourty. I was barely in my seat and the Texans were on the verge of going up 7-0. But they didn't. Their second tight end dropped a sure touchdown and Matt Schaub missed an wide open Andre Johnson. The Texans settled for a field goal and you knew they had just missed a great opportunity to set the tone. Neither team could set the tone and with just more than four minutes left in the first quarter my stomach was not doing any better. Woody was standing on the sideline hurt and Gronk had already headed for the locker room holding his arm. I needed another margarita. It's good I had laid that base of mac and cheese.

And then Brady and the offense clicked. A lightning fast 65-yard touchdown drive was capped when in quick succession Vereen caught a short pass and took it 25 yards, Hernandez took it another 14 down to the goal line, and then Vereen ran in untouched before the Houston D could get set. The tone had been set. And fast. The touchdown and the next round of drinks had settled my stomach. The rest of the game built my appetite for the post-game tailgate.

It may not seem like it, but the game was actually close at the half. Houston scored 10 points in about three minutes to cut a 17-3 lead to 17-13. It was no repeat of the disaster the Texans played a month ago. This was one of the best teams in the conference showing why they were one of the best. By the time the third quarter was over the Patriots had showed the Texans who was better. Brady, Welker, and Hernandez (the key to the rest of the playoffs) combined for another big drive to open the second half. Ninko then picked off Schaub as the Texans were driving to get back in the game and the offense made it 31-13 with a 63-yard drive near the end of the quarter. The key series in the fourth quarter was classic Josh McDaniels's offense. The Pats' D stopped the Texans on a fourth-and-1 at the Houston 33. On the very next play Brady lofted a perfect pass down the left sideline and Vereen (three touchdowns) made a great catch for a touchdown. It was the killer instinct of a playoff-tested team.

The defense gave up two fourth quarter touchdowns but the game was never close. A game in which I was fearing the worst had turned out just great. It just kept getting better and better. Kind of like the post-game serving of mac and cheese.

Round two

OK, that was not a very entertaining Wild Card weekend. Sure, the Bengals-Texans game was close most of the way and Seattle's comeback against the Skins had some drama but the four games were not that exciting. Unless you are a Packers, Texans, Ravens, or Seahawks fan. Then they were great games. I thought they would be more competitive but each game had a team that clearly wasn't ready for the playoffs. That should change this weekend. All four matchups should be bruising battles. Even the Patriots rematch with Houston. Despite what most in the Blabosphere are saying, this will not be an easy game for the Pats. The Texans will leave their letterman jackets behind this time. They will be ready.

AFC

Ravens (11-6) at Broncos (13-3): The Ray Lewis retirement party begins immediately after this game. I just don't see Peyton Manning losing at home after putting together the season he has in Denver. I know it's supposed to be cold and the elder Manning never wins in the cold. But you're talking about the fifth best passing attack in the league against a very average defense. Andrew Luck is no Peyton Manning. And the Colts don't have wide receivers like Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas. Add to that a healthy Willis McGahee and I don't see the Ravens D holding Manning to under 23 points. And it's very unlikely that Joe Flacco can score more than 20 points against the Denver defense. All the focus is on Manning and Lewis but the Bronco defense was third in the league against the pass and third in the league against the run. The Denver D is very very good. The Broncos are no 13-3 fluke. And they are at home. They will be hosting the AFC title game. Broncos 27, Ravens 16.

Texans (13-4) at Patriots (12-4): No one is giving Houston a chance to win this one. Including me. But that doesn't mean it will be an easy game or that the Texans can't win. They can. I just don't think they will. But I didn't think the Jets could come into Gillette in the Divisional Round two years ago and win. They did. And this Texans team is much better than that Jets team. Much better. I watched Alabama destroy unbeaten Notre Dame in the college championship game and thought if Brady and the Patriots can play at the level that the Tide played at for three more games then they will finally get that fourth Lombardi. The Texans will play a better game than they did in the Monday night thrashing a month ago. They have to play better. But better won't be good enough if the Pats play at their peak. And that is where the questions come in. Can Talib be the shutdown corner I've heard tell of? Can the secondary not give up the big plays? Can Ridley hold on to the ball? Can rookies Jones and Hightower rise up under the playoff pressure? Can Brady stop throwing the bad pick in a playoff game? Can Gosty make a clutch playoff kick? I think the answers to most of those questions, at least for this week, are yes. Patriots 34, Texans 20.


NFC

Packers (12-5) at 49ers (11-4-1): The classic battle of the wide-open offense against the smash-mouth defense. I'm really looking forward to this game. The numbers favor the Niners in almost every category. They are the fourth ranked D in the league while the Pack is in the middle of the pack. The Niners also have one of the best rushing attacks in the game. If Frank Gore dominates the Green Bay D and keeps Aaron Rodgers off the field then the Pack is in trouble. But that's where San Fran quarterback Colin Kaepernick comes in. Coach Jim Harbaugh with his rather large ego wants to show that he made the right choice by benching Alex Smith in favor of his guy. So he will have Kaepernick throwing. Since Kaepernick took over the starting job Gore has not had a 100-yard rushing game. He had three before that. I think the Niners throw the ball more than they should and that opens the door for Rodgers and his array of receiving weapons. The Packers are a veteran team that will not be afraid to win on the road. Packers 27, Niners 23.

 

Seahawks (12-5) at Falcons (13-3): The Seahawks are the surprise team in the NFL's elite eight. And they just might be the most dangerous. If Pete Carroll wins a Super Bowl ... What was I saying? Right. Seahawks vs. the Falcons. Seattle is a team that plays to its strengths. They have the best runner in the game right now, Marshawn Lynch. And they run him right down their opponent's throat. And then they have rookie QB Russell Wilson make some plays. On defense they are just nasty everywhere. They play like the old Miami Hurricanes defense. Like criminals. They are intimidating. And if there's one team in the NFL the past few years that can be intimidated it's Matt Ryan's Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons have the sixth best passing attack in the league with Roddy White, Julio Jones, and future hall of famer Tony Gonzalez catching Ryan's passes. But Seattle has the best pass defense in the game. What else do the Falcons have? They are 29th in the league in rushing and 23rd against the pass and 21st against the run. That's not good. The Falcons will be one and done again. Seahawks 30, Falcons 21.

Week 14 rewind

Get ready for the onslaught of stories anointing the Patriots as unbeatable. Because here they come.

The Pats' domination of the Texans on Monday night was as complete a game against a good opponent as the team has had in a few years. When you beat the top seed in the conference 42-14 there's not much to put into the bad column. I guess the only bad would be that it wasn't the Super Bowl. I expected the Patriots to play like that in the '07 Super Bowl ... I'm still waiting.

GOOD

• Brady may have locked up another MVP trophy with this one. He completed 21 out of 35 passes for 296 yards. Not eye-popping stats. But he was in command the whole game. Four touchdowns. No picks. He led touchdown drives of 36, 82, 70, 74, 72, and 68 yards. Total command.
• This was supposed to be the year of Aaron Hernandez. The other tight end. But an ankle sprain in the second game of the season has put a dent in that. But Hernandez seems to be healthy again as his eight catches and two touchdowns showed. If Gronk and Hernandez are both healthy come playoff time then the Pats just might be unbeatable. Because both should be pretty fresh.
• Devin McCourty is you new starting safety. The rookie of the year cornerback lost his touch playing his natural position. It's been a puzzling development. But since being moved to safety McCourty has gotten his touch back. He made a huge interception in the end zone to snuff out an early Houston drive  and he had five solo tackles.
• Big Vince keeps playing bigger and bigger. There may be no better defensive player in football. The Pats are one of the top teams against the run and Wilfork is the main reason. The defense held Arian Foster to under 50 yards rushing. That's impressive.
• Rookie Chandler Jones was having a rookie-of-the-year type of season before he got hurt. He's back now and hopefully can get back in gear by playoff time. The other top rookie the team drafted in the first round, D'onta Hightower, has had more of a struggle so far. But against Houston, the linebacker tied for the team lead with six tackles. He was all over the place. He may be a factor when it really counts.

BAD

• Like I said, the only bad thing about this game was that it wasn't the Super Bowl. But it still meant a lot. Suddenly the top seed is a possibility because Houston has to play the red-hot Colts twice. If the Pats play this solid in their final three games then, as they say, the road to the Super Bowl goes through Gillette.

'Tis the season

WEEK 14

Patriots 42, Texans 14 (12/10/'12): The headline on this post has been banned (rightfully so) this time of year at the newspaper where I work. But when it comes to December and the New England Patriots it truly 'tis the season ... for winning .. when it really counts.

All week the Patriots said the game against Houston, the AFC's top seed, was a good measuring stick for them. In 2012 in the AFC, it's still the Patriots who are the stick and it's the rest of the conference that keeps doing the measuring. And coming up short.

The Texans are a very good team and if they have home-field advantage in the playoffs they will be tough to beat. But last night, in what they themselves admitted was the biggest game in the history of their franchise, the Texans were not a very good team. At least not when compared to the Patriots.

The game was supposed to be a tight contest and played in very rainy conditions. Neither proved to be the case. The back seat of my car was loaded up with rain gear and we invested in a new tailgating tent (like the team, we are getting ready for the playoffs) but we didn't need it. My raincoat stayed in the car and the tent ended up shielding us from the rays of sun that broke through the clouds just before sunset instead of the predicted downpours. A Monday evening in the Enchanted Forest with temperatures in the 50s and steaks on the grill had us fired up by the time we got to kickoff. Seems the Pats were pretty fired up to.

Brady and the offense scored touchdowns on their first three possessions and it was 21-0 before the Texans could get their prime-time sea legs. Brady and Lloyd connected on a rare deep bomb for the second score which came just a few plays after McCourty picked off Matt Schaub in the Pats' end zone. The offense was clicking and the defense was coming up with third-down stop after stop. One team looked focused and confident. The other looked confused and intimidated. As is often the case, it was the Pats doing the intimidating.

Brady finished with nearly 300 yards passing and threw for four touchdowns with no picks. He spread the ball around to Welker, Hernandez, Lloyd, Woodhead, and even connected for a 63-yard touchdown with old friend  Donte Stallworth. And the running game was strong again. On defense, the Pats held Arian Foster -- the second-best back in the league -- to just 46 yards. It was an all around impressive performance.

It's been so long since the Pats have lost a home game in December that I can't even remember it. Next week will be an even bigger challenge as the Niners -- with the league best defense -- come to Gillette for a Sunday night game. It's another measuring stick game.  And it's the Niners who will be doing the measuring.

It's December. 'Tis the season.

The leader board

One month to go in the 2012 NFL regular season. So far it's been a highly entertaining season (unless you live in KC). This is a pretty good brand of NFL football. And I grew up on 1970s NFL. One of the toughest, craziest, most innovative decades of football ever. If you are a pro football fan, today's NFL -- with the NFL Network, NFL.com, and, most importantly, the Red Zone -- is as good as anything television has to offer. It's the best comedy/drama/reality series there is.

There's the story of Peyton Manning coming back from "Terminator" neck surgery and playing better than ever. There's Andrew Luck, the rookie who replaced Manning in Indy, showing why Indy was crazy enough to give up on one of the three greatest quarterbacks to ever play the game. There's RG3. There's the Colts going from two wins last year to a playoff team this year, inspired by their coach who was diagnosed with cancer. In an era of fantastic offensive displays, there are contenders in San Fran, Seattle, Houston, and Chicago that are led by nasty, hard-hitting defenses.

Oh, and there's Tom Brady and the Patriots battling for the top -- again. The rest of the NFL-loving world must be beyond sick of them. That makes rooting for them that much more enjoyable.

Twelve teams will make the playoffs. Six in each conference. These are the twelve I think will make it...

1. Houston Texans (11-1): It took back-to-back overtime wins against lesser teams (Jags and Lions) to keep the Texans from plummeting down this list. But win they did. The have talent all over the field and they are well coached by the perfectly coiffed Gary Kubiak. The Texans face the biggest game in their franchise history on Monday night at Gillette. Bigger than their playoff game last year. Why? Because if they win they are the #1 seed and get to eat Texas BBQ throughout the AFC playoffs. If they lose then they are in a dogfight just to get a first-round bye. The Texans are the second best team in the league against the run. The Pats are eighth in rushing. The Texans have a point differential of an impressive +130. There's only one team better... the Pats at +170. That's right. The Pats have score 170 more points than they have allowed.

2. New England Patriots (9-3): And that's why they are the second best team in the league till they win Monday night. Did I mention they have scored 170 more points than they have allowed? And they have done it with major injuries to Hernandez, to Gronk, to Edelman, to most of the offensive line, to both starting safeties, and now to rookie of the year candidate Chandler Jones. If Brady and the Pats can get a bye and get healthy come January, there is only one team that would make me nervous in the playoffs. That's the one with the white N and the G on their blue helmets, of course.

3. Atlanta Falcons (11-1): I said in an earlier ranking that the Falcons have the smell of that team that goes 15-1 and loses at home in the Divisional Round to the Bears or the Giants. They are starting to smell just a little less each week. Following their first loss to New Orleans a month ago they have beaten Arizona, Tampa, and their nemesis the Saints in three tough games. Playoff-like games. The Falcons have the fourth-best passing attack. But they are only 28th in the league in rushing, And they are average stopping the pass and the run. They deserve to be ranked at the top of the NFC heading into the stretch drive, but I wouldn't bet on them getting a chance to play for the Lombardi.

4. Denver Broncos (9-3): How great would it be if Peyton Manning and the Broncos came into Gillette for the AFC Championship game? I know, be careful what you wish for. But it would be great. Especially if it was about 25 degrees with a little snow. I've got plenty of layers for that. And it just might happen because Manning the Elder is playing as great as ever. It really shouldn't come as a shock. Impressive, yes. But not a shock. If you've been watching Manning for nearly 20 years you've seen him do some amazing things. This year is no different. The best play the veteran made all year was when he passed over other teams and chose to go to Denver. The Broncos were a pretty good team last year. Now they are very good.

5. San Francisco 49ers (8-3-1): The best defense in the league is great to have but you still need to be able to control the ball and score points on offense. That's the Niners achilles heel. And they now have a quarterback controversy. That's never good. Jim Harbaugh got a little too smart for his own good. But he's always been that way. The Niners were looking solid with Alex Smith at QB, the guy who led them to the NFC title game. Then he got hurt and Harbaugh's guy Colin Kaepernick came in and looked pretty good. But really not any better than Smith. And then the Niners lost to the Rams with Kaepernick and now Harbaugh has a problem. But it's not a huge problem because quarterback is not -- by far -- the most important position on his team. That's because his running game is the second best in the league. And the defense? Well, it's second against the pass and third against the run. The best defense in the league.

6. Green Bay Packers (8-4): It's been a crazy season so far for the Pack. The team that went 15-1 last year has had a much bumpier, injury-filled ride this time. The Pack had a game stolen from them by the fake refs. After five games they were sitting at 2-3 but then strung together five straight wins and were looking like the NFC favorite again only to get stomped by the Giants. After all that, the Pack is still sitting at 8-4 and now have a chance to grab that #2 seed and get the bye and a home game at Lambeau. If Aaron Rodgers and his well-coached team can do that then I think you will be seeing them in the Super Bowl.

7. New York Giants (7-5): Or you'll see these guys. A month ago I had the 6-2 defending champs at the top of the list. Since then they have gone 1-3. They are now in a dogfight with the Skins and the Cowboys ... and the Skins with RG3 are starting to jell. Why do I find the Giants more dangerous at 7-5 than I did when they were 6-2? Because that's what the Giants do. Little Manning had a rough few weeks but you now he will be clutch when it counts. And the G-Men have that great pass rush. Still, I get the feeling that the horseshoe may have fallen out of this team's pocket.

8. Chicago Bears (8-4): When the Bears are clicking they are a heck of a team. It's just hard to believe a team coached by Lovie Smith and led by Jay Cutler will click when it counts. But the defense is good enough to give them a chance to find out. There's been a lot of talk of how Brandon Marshall has made a huge difference on the offense. And he has. But the Chicago passing game is 31st in the league. Sure, the running game is top 10. As is the defense. But with Cutler in charge the Bears are always beatable.

9. Indianapolis Colts (8-4): One of the more compelling stories in the league this year is the Colts resurgence and the fact that it's happening while their first-year coach is being treated for cancer. As great a human interest story as that is, it's the play of rookie QB Andrew Luck and the rest of the rebuilding Colts that has been something to see. Luck has had Manning-like moments. The rest of the team is  pretty average, but Luck (like Manning) makes everyone better. The Colts are the Cinderella team riding on emotion. You don't want to play them in the first round.

10. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5): This is the point in the rankings where you can choose from about fifteen teams. I'm going with the proven commodity. Big Ben and the Steelers are getting older and are pretty banged up. But they just schooled RG3 and the Skins on how to play smash-mouth football. As the Ravens are losing more guys to injury, the Steelers are starting to get healthier. If they get Polamalu back they should win the AFC North and be a team to fear in the playoffs because they have the experience and they have Big Ben.

11. Seattle Seahawks (7-5): Pete Carroll has something going here. Much to my surprise. It seems like he has built a really good college team in the Northwest and those college players are responding to his style. The Seahawks are like the Bears. Good running game. Very good defense.  Not very dangerous passing game. But rookie Russell Wilson has been gaining more confidence. I would have more faith in him than Cutler in a playoff game. Seattle will go as far as their young, nasty D will carry them.

12. Baltimore Ravens (9-3): If there were more than four weeks left in the season I think the Bengals would catch the Ravens for the last wildcard spot. The veteran (old) team in Baltimore is fading that fast. The Ravens are 15th in the league in passing, but only 23rd in the league in rushing. That's hard to explain considering they have Ray Rice. More worrisome if you are a Raven fan is the fact that the defense is ranked 23rd against the pass AND the run. The Ravens have a lot of talent, but they are a wounded team heading into the playoffs.

Dishonorable mention: The 3-9 Philadephia Eagles. Sure, I could have put the Jets here after their performance on Thanksgiving night against the Pats. (He ran into his ass!) But enough of the Jets. The Eagles are having an even more hideous season. Their second in a row. Since dubbing themselves the "Dream Team" before last year, the Eagles have gone 11-17. Dream on. Michael Vick. Disaster. DeSean Jackson. Disaster. Nmandi Asomugha. Disaster. Andy Reid. Gone.

Half full

The NFC was starting to look like the superior conference. Not so fast. The Steelers are back on the radar and the Broncos with Peyton Manning are now a formidable team. They join the Texans, Pats, and Ravens as the top five teams in the AFC. How do they stack up against the NFC's top five of the Giants, Bears, Falcons, Niners, and Packers? Pretty evenly. Who is the best among them all? Well, a very familiar team.

As always my rankings go to 12 because that's the number of playoff teams. It really doesn't matter who #13 is when the season is over.

1. New York Giants (6-2): It pains me to say it, but the Giants are the most complete, experienced, and dangerous team in the league this year. They are in a very good position to be the first repeat champ since the '03-'04 Pats. Little Manning is never out of a game and never looks worried. He has great receivers and a strong running game. And they have the best pass rush in the league. The Giants seem to do better when they are the underdog ... they might not get that chance this year.

2. Chicago Bears (6-1): It pains me to say it, but Lovie Smith might actually be a good coach. OK, it doesn't really pain me to say it. Lovie seems like a good guy. I can't root for the Bears to ever win another Super Bowl (see Pats-Bears 1986), but I could root for Lovie. But not Jay Cutler. That guy annoys me. But he looks a lot better now that he has Brandon Marshall to throw to. And they have a great runner in Forte. And a great defense. The Bears and Giants seem on a collision course for the NFC title game.

3. New England Patriots (5-3): I know. The Falcons are 7-0 and the Texans are 6-1. But they don't have Tom Brady. Who according to some in the Blabosphere is starting to lose it a bit. Maybe they should watch his five TDs in five drives against the Rams and see what they think. The Pats are the best offense in the league and they are doing it without Aaron Hernandez and a limping Gronk and Welker. Lloyd -- despite a few drops -- has been a great addition. And the running game when Bolden is healthy is one of the best. I know. The defense has big problems. If they can get safeties Chung and Gregory healthy I think the D will start to improve like it did last year.

4. Atlanta Falcons (7-0): The Falcons just have the smell of that team that goes 15-1 and loses at home in the Divisional Round to the Bears or the Giants. But that's a long ways off. Matt Ryan and the Falcons have been on the verge of taking the next step for the last few years. They have a well balanced offense and a good defense, although they are near the bottom against the run which is a problem come playoff time. The Falcons are the classic dome team that doesn't quite have the grit to win the big one. Not sure that has changed yet.

5. Houston Texans (6-1): The Texans -- after looking bad against Green Bay -- sure looked good against the Ravens last week. They should probably be ranked higher. But like the Falcons, I'm not totally convinced. But unlike the Falcons, they have no weaknesses. The Texans have the second-ranked offense behind the Patriots and are fifth in the league against the pass and fourth against the run. And they play in a pretty easy division. If Houston can come into Gillette in a month and beat the Pats then they'll have home field in the playoffs and be very tough to stop.

6. San Francisco 49ers (6-2): The best defense in the league. And the nastiest. If I were given $1,000 to bet on any team to win the Super Bowl I'd put it on San Fran. Their D is that good. And with Frank Gore they have the best rushing game in the league. A great defense and a great running game. Many a dynasty was built on that. The question is quarterback Alex Smith. Many a Super Bowl was won with lesser QBs. When a team like the Niners is (arguably) your sixth best team ... you have a hell of a league.

7. Denver Broncos (5-3): The Broncos have taken a step up in the last few weeks as Big Manning keeps getting better and better. And that will be a problem for the rest of the AFC come playoff time. Manning is making the young receivers on his team better each week. The Broncos should win the AFC West with ease since the Chargers have decided to get a head start in their yearly collapse and fold early. Denver's weakness is they are average in rushing and below average in stopping the run.

8. Baltimore Ravens (5-2): The Ravens are limping their way down the rankings. Ray Lewis is done for the season. Terrell Suggs is back but it may be too late. The Ravens -- built on defense -- are 24th in the league against the pass and 30th -- that's right, 30th -- against the run. That's not Raven football. And although the offense is good, it is not nearly good enough to carry the team like it is in New England or New York or Atlanta. The Ravens have a tough second half ahead of them.

9. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3): This is the point in the rankings where you can choose from about fifteen teams. I'm going with the proven commodity. Big Ben and the Steelers are getting older and are pretty banged up. But they just schooled RG3 and the Skins on how to play smash-mouth football. As the Ravens are getting more banged up, the Steelers are starting to get healthier. If they get Polamalu back they should win the AFC North and be a team nobody wants to play come January.

10. Green Bay Packers (5-3): It pains me to put them this low. The Pack should be 6-2 if it weren't for the blown call by the fake refs. But the Pack is 26th in the league in rushing. That puts too much pressure on Aaron Rodgers to carry the load. The defense has improved after last year's poor showing but it is still giving up a lot of points. The Pack has a very tough second-half schedule that will make it tough for them to pass the Bears. But they should be a wild card team.

11. Miami Dolphins (4-3): Of all the surprise decent teams in the league this year (Seattle, Arizona, Minnesota, Indy being the others), Miami is the one that is headed in the right direction. A huge win over the Jets puts them into wild card contention. Rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill may not be as good as Indy's Andrew Luck or Washington's RG3, but he has Reggie Bush on his side. And a very good defense that is third in the league against the run.

12. Minnesota Vikings (5-3): The Cardinals and Seahawks sure thought they were top 12 teams after beating the Pats. Look where they are now ... 4-4 and fading fast. The Vikes, on the other hand, are still in the hunt because they can do something the other two can't. Score points. Thanks to Adrian Peterson. Young QB Christian Ponder has good games and bad and the defense is only slightly better than average. And the Vikes didn't look too good against Tampa last week. But like I said ... they have Adrian Peterson.

Dishonorable mention: J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets. Skinny Rex's team has been hit hard by injuries, no doubt about it. But what team hasn't? Problem is the Jets didn't have much depth. At the start of the season Ryan proclaimed this the most talented team he's had in his four years in New York. It was pretty funny when he said it. At 3-5, it's really funny now. Teee-bow! Teee-bow! I can't wait for Thanksgiving night.

Going fourth

NFL coaches like to look at the 16-game season in four quarters. Now that each team has played four games, time has expired on the first quarter. So who is looking good at the quarter pole? And who is fading fast? My rankings go to 12 (not 11) because that's how many teams make the playoffs. There are some surprise teams not on the list like the Saints, Steelers, Lions, and Jets. Well, maybe not the Jets. And there are some surprise teams on the list like Arizona, Washington, and Denver.

It's only four games, but with a few exceptions these teams will be your playoff competitors come January. That's how important a good start is in the NFL.

1. San Francisco 49ers (3-1): They aren't one of the three remaining unbeaten teams, but they are the only team that could probably beat all three. The Niners stumbled against the Vikings but are still the most balanced team in the league. The San Fran D is a beast and the offense -- with running back Frank Gore -- is good enough to get the job done. The Niners are -- at the moment -- the best team in the NFC

2. Houston Texans (4-0): The Texans are -- at the moment -- the best team in the AFC. Houston will be sitting atop most power rankings after four weeks, And rightfully so. I just think the Niners D is better. And the Niners have more experience. But the Texans have a better quarterback in Matt Schaub and a very good runner in Arian Foster. And they haven't missed Mario Williams all that much, have they?

3. Atlanta Falcons (4-0): The Falcons are a little lucky to still be unbeaten. A Cam Newton fumble gave Atlanta new life and Matt Ryan and the offense were more than glad to take advantage of it with a great game-winning drive. Matty "Ice" looks like he has moved into the elite category. The Falcons are scoring 31 points a game and allowing 19. That adds up to 4-0.

4. Baltimore Ravens (3-1): The Ravens are off to a 3-1 start without Terrell Suggs, one of their leaders and one of the most ferocious pass rushers in the game. They were outplayed by the Patriots for a good chunk of their game and had to scrape and claw to beat the lowly Browns but player for player the Ravens are as good as anyone in the AFC. Torrey Smith is now one of the most dangerous weapons in the game. And Joe Flacco is off to a great start so far. We'll see if that lasts.

5. New England Patriots (2-2): The Pats would be ahead of the Ravens if they had held on to that 9-point lead. But they didn't. The Pats -- even without Aaron Hernandez -- have the best offense in the league. Brady has been at his best. But they haven't been able to win the close games and are sitting at 2-2. So what are the Pats doing in the top 5 instead of the 4-0 Cardinals? Well, this is a Patriots blog. And, honestly, do you really think if the two teams played again this weekend the Patriots wouldn't win? Really?

6. Green Bay Packers (2-2): My preseason #1 pick should be 3-1. Everyone knows that except Pete Carroll. The Packers paid the ultimate price for the fake refs ... a win. And they almost lost to the Saints in a wild one. The Packers are like the Patriots. They can score almost at will and their defense -- which should be better than it is -- gives up way too many big plays. But Aaron Rodgers -- like Brady -- has that look in his eye that he will not be denied. And they are coached by one of the classiest guys walking the sidelines.

7. Arizona Cardinals (4-0): Records don't mean everything. The Cardinals are unbeaten but they were lucky to beat the Pats (yes, the Cards D played great) and were really lucky to beat Miami. Sure, no one even had the Cadinals in their top 20 heading into the season that I saw so #7 is pretty good. The defense is young and fast but I think the offense is playing over its head. Every year a team starts off 4-0 or 3-1 and ends up missing the playoffs. The Cards are that team this year.

8. New York Giants (2-2): If you saw the Giants get beat by Philly you might not think they were top 10 worthy. But they are. The best pass rush. A two-time Super Bowl champ at QB. A hall of fame coach. A tough as nails run game. Experience all over the field. The Giants may only win 10 or 11 games but if that's enough to get in the playoffs then look out.

9. Chicago Bears (3-1): The Bears are nothing if not entertaining. Kind of like an episode of the "Kardashians." There's a lot of bickering and falling down, but then they dress up for prime time and kick the crap out of Dallas. Jay Cutler (playing the role of Kim) goes from bumping his lineman in frustration to tossing bombs all over Jerry Jones's coliseum. Brandon Marshall makes them a much different team offensively. When Forte gets back they will be even tougher. Of course, they still have Lovie as their coach.

10. Denver Broncos (2-2): There's only one reason the Broncos are on this list, bumping off 3-1 San Diego and Cincy. Peyton Manning. He's looked pretty darn good for an old guy who missed a year because his neck had to be fused back together. Very good actually. He has a young, talented group of receivers, a good running game, and a pretty good defense. That should get them to the top of the AFC West even with John Fox as coach.

11. Philadelphia Eagles (3-1): The Dream Team is back! Sort of. Michael Vick and his cast of stars have won three games while racking up an amazing number of turnovers in those games. It wasn't till they beat the Giants that I took them seriously. Till then they were stealing games from the likes of the Browns. But they are a talented team with a lot of experience and if they can just stop making mistakes (a big if) then they might finally make the dream come true for Philly fans.

12. Washington Redskins (2-2): RG3. No. It's not the new Nike sneaker (yet). It's the Skins saviour at QB. Robert Griffin III is this year's phenom rookie quarterback. Maybe even better than last year's model, Cam Newton. Griffin is fun to watch and the Skins are getting better on defense so they make the third NFC East team on the list. Yes. It's the toughest division by far.

Dishonorable mention: The 0-4 New Orleans Saints. Now we know what things would have looked like around here if Belichick had been suspended for a year over Spygate. Whew. The Saints continue to score tons of points thanks to Drew Brees. But they can't stop anyone and they look lost when the games get tight. Sean Peyton is clearly missed. As Belichick would have been. Whew.

Reading material

Wild-card weekend lived up to its name... mostly due to the instant-classic the Steelers and Broncos staged yesterday evening in Denver. The Saints offense looked awesome (again). The Giants D looked even better than it did in '07 (yikes). The Texans, even with TJ Yates at QB, looked good enough to go into Baltimore and pull the upset (please). But it was the Broncos and the Steelers that are the talk of the football world today. Well, as usual, most of the talk is about Tebow.

• The Christian Science Monitor -- how fitting -- weighs in with an interesting piece on how Tebow not being great is what makes Tebow great. 
• The Denver Post is finding religion. Tebow's performance in the thriller over Pittsburgh has lifted the holy spirits all around Colorado. It's been that magical.
• And let's not forget the Steel City. Pittsburgh is not used to losing games like that. I'm not used to seeing Pittsburgh losing games like that. I could get used to it. Reading some of the Steelers stories today, it was clear that this loss was less of a surprise in Pittsburgh than it was to me.

The Saints, Giants, Broncos, and Texans all looked capable of being this year's "team that gets hot in the playoffs." Their victories set up one of the most promising divisional rounds I can remember. In the NFC, the high-octane offense of the Saints against the stone-wall D of the Niners is a classic speed vs. brute force contest. The other NFC game is the Giants, looking very dangerous, going into Lambeau to take on the 15-1 defending champs. If the Packers are going to repeat, they are going to have to beat the Giants and either New Orleans or San Fran. That's a tough road back to the Super Bowl. In the AFC, the game that has the least buzz is Houston at Baltimore. It could turn out to be the best game of the weekend. Both teams can run and play nasty defense. And each can pass just enough to make plays. I will be hoping Houston pulls the upset, of course, because I'd rather not see Terrell Suggs chasing Brady all over the field during the AFC title game. THE game of the weekend will take place Saturday night at Gillette. There will be lots of talk this week about how lucky the Pats are to get Denver. That they should win rather easily. There are no sure things in the playoffs. Just look at yesterday's Broncos game.

Insult and injury

WEEK 17

I'm not a big believer in karma. But there are times when what goes around truly does seem to come around. So when Tom Brady went down in the first quarter of last season there was a part of me that thought "Spygate. Payback is a bitch." I know it had nothing to do with it but if there is such a thing as karma I figured the Pats were paid in full.

I guess not. Watching Wes Welker grab his knee in the first quarter in today's season finale in Houston -- just a week before the playoffs -- the only thought was "Did that just happen?'' Sadly, it did. Welker looks done for the year. The X-ray will say for sure but it looked like torn ligaments. You don't have to have Superman's vision to see that. Let the second-guessing fest begin! Should Belichick have played the starters? Should he have taken the safe road like the Colts last week? Is this just more of Belichick's arrogance? Well, no. It's a serious -- and disastrous -- injury. They happen all the time in the NFL. In preseason. Regular season. Playoffs. First quarter. And last quarter. Games with a lot on the line and games with little on the line. The same thing could have happened in the first quarter of the playoffs next week. You really can't hide from injuries in football. They will find you.

However, feel free to second-guess the coach when it comes to the QB. I'm still not sure what the heck he was doing with Brady today. He's in the game. Wait. He's out and Hoyer is in. Oh, wait. Brady's back in. One last drive to try to win the game? Brady's out again. I doubt Belichick will go into much detail on his thinking there but that's OK. It doesn't matter what he was thinking. It made no sense. None at all. Either leave him in or take him out. Lots of room for criticism there. But any talk comparing what happened to Welker to what the Colts did last week in tanking against the Jets is -- as usual -- way off base. Why? Because Manning, Clark, Wayne, et al played in the first half. Any one of them could have blown a knee. Once a guy lines up to play a down in a game there's a risk of injury. The Colts were doing the same thing as the Pats in the first half. Playing to win. It wasn't until the second half that the Colts quit.

The Pats, as usual, did not quit at all yesterday. And with 14 minutes to go they were up 27-13 and playing well. Welker or not, the Pats seemed to be building some momentum on both sides of the ball. And that is not meaningless. But then something very familiar happened. They proceeded to blow the lead by giving up three touchdowns. It looked a lot like the blown games against the Broncos, the Colts, and the Wildcats. When the Texans cut the lead to 27-20 I texted my nephew Pete "The D has to win this game." They didn't. Once again the Pats had a chance to show they could hold a lead in a crucial game against a tough opponent and once again they didn't get it done. Each time they have blown a lead this season I figured it was the last time I would see it. If it happens one more time then it will indeed be the last time I see it -- this season.

The regular season is finally over. As is any margin for error. With another blown lead -- and more importantly a Welker blown knee -- the Pats are heading into the playoffs in much the same condition they have been all season. Limping. We'll find out soon enough just how dangerous they can be when wounded.