Monday, January 4, 2010

Final standings

The regular season is over and the Colts are right where they started in my top 10 rankings -- No. 1. And that's where they belong. A columnist wrote last week (after the Pats had their way with the Jaguars) that there aren't a lot of good teams in the NFL. I couldn't disagree more. Look at the playoff teams ranked below (12, not 10). Any one of them could win the Super Bowl. They are all that good. Sure, there are some bad teams like Oakland, Washington, and others. But even they competed with the top dogs and pulled off some upsets. There may not be any powerhouses in the NFL right now, but there are a dozen or more very good teams. That should make for some great playoff games.

1. Indianapolis Colts (14-2): They lost their last two games due to indifference. So now Manning and the Colts head into the playoffs without the historic burden of 19-0. They can relax, get rested, and be ready in two weeks. But will they be ready? They are the best team in the league but they will have gone almost a month without competing. If they can shake the rust and get through the first playoff game they will be tough to stop.

2. San Diego Chargers (13-3): The hot team. The favorite pick to win it all. The Chargers stumbled out of the gate at 2-3 but have rolled off eleven straight wins to close out the regular season. Phillip Rivers should be the league MVP (of course it will go to #4). They were the team to beat way back in '06 when the Pats went into SD and stole one. They are a veteran team now. Less cocky. They know what it takes. Even Norv might not be able to screw this up. Maybe.

3. New Orleans Saints (13-3): What the hell happened to the Saints? It wasn't that long ago that they were whuppin' the Pats on Monday night and looking like the team to beat. They are still the team to beat in the NFC but they closed out the season with three straight losses -- two of them in the Dome. Their offense sputtered down the stretch, scoring less than 20 points in all three loses. Can they turn it back on in the second round of the playoffs? I think they will.

4. Minnesota Vikings (12-4): Brett Favre finished the season with 30 touchdowns. And only seven picks. Seven! I would have put a lot of money on him throwing double digits. But he didn't. Impressive. Favre gets all the attention but Minnesota has a lot more than #4 going for them. A great run defense. A great running game. Adrian Peterson is one of the most dangerous backs in the game. He can change a game with one play. The Vikes will be tough to beat at home in the Division round.

5. Green Bay Packers (11-5): It gets a lot harder to separate the remaining playoff teams. The Pack get the nod because of their overall balance. The offense put up the third most points-per-game. Aaron Rodgers matched Favre's 30 TDs. Grant Jennings and the ageless Donald Driver are as good a one-two WR punch as there is. The defense is even better. The have the best run D in the league. Theyare fast enough to win in a dome and tough enough to win in the cold. The Pack could make it to the NFC title game.

6. Dallas Cowboys (11-5): Dallas makes the fourth NFC team in the top six. Unlike many teams in the AFC, most NFC teams are heading into the playoffs on a roll. The 'Boys are rolling as well as anyone. Tony Romo smashed his "can't win in December" label into oblivion. Now we'll see if he -- and Wade Phillips -- can actually win a playoff game. They haven't won one since 1996. That's right. Dallas hasn't won a playoff game all decade. Jerry Jones might hang himself from the giant video screen at the top of the Jerry Dome if they don't break that streak. Too bad he has Phillips as his coach.

7. New England Patriots (10-6): Too high a ranking for the Pats? You're probably right. They won one less game this year with Brady than they did last year with Matt Cassel. Didn't expect that. But of the remaining teams competing for the seven spot the Pats have the best chance of winning a home playoff game and advancing. They went unbeaten at Gillette. The Ravens are going to be tough to beat (especially without -- gulp -- Welker) but Brady is still Brady. They still have lots of weapons. The defense has yet to show they can lock down a big win. If the Pats are leading the Ravens 24-10 going into the fourth quarter ... I'm going to be nervous.

8. New York Jets (9-7): What the heck are they doing in the playoffs? Didn't they blow a home game against Atlanta a few weeks ago that pretty much killed their season? Weren't the Colts leading them two weeks ago ... oh, right. The Colts gave up. Thus the Jets' season was taken off life support and they are now up and walking again. Right into the playoffs. With the best defense in the league. Nice going Colts. Rooting against the Jets is ingrained in me. But I think I would actually enjoy watching them win this weekend and then go into Indy and beat the Colts in a real game. Now that would be justice.

9. Cincinnati Bengals (10-6): Cincy ended the season by getting stomped 37-0 by the Jets. And now they play them in the Wild Card round. It doesn't mean a thing. The Bengals -- like the NYJ -- win with defense. At least that's how they should win. Also like the Jets, they get in trouble when they get away from that approach. Cincy has not looked strong down the stretch and are certainly vulnerable. If they can get in front of the Jets early and get the hungry Cincy fans fired up they will be in good shape. If not, their once-promising season will end a disappointment.

10. Baltimore Ravens (9-7): The Ravens barely beat the Raiders in a must-win game. But they won. They haven't had the most impressive season. But they scratched their way into the tournament. They are a well-coached, smash-mouth team. Ray Lewis will scream. John Harbaugh will have his team prepared. Joe Flacco will not make many mistakes. They won't beat themselves. But they can be beaten.

11. Arizona Cardinals (10-6): The Cards go into the playoffs in much the same unimpressive state that they did last year. And they went to the Super Bowl last year. Can Kurt Warner and the men in red catch fire again? Last year they opened up against a tough Atlanta team and beat them in a great 30-24 game. They will face a similar challenge against Green Bay. Can they do it again? I doubt it.

12. Philadelphia Eagles (11-5): The Eagles are in the playoffs yet again. But don't expect them to be making yet another trip to the NFC championship game this decade. They don't have the defense. Philly soared to the top of the NFC East behind the passing attack of Donovan McNabb and DeSean Jackson. Shut down the big plays (like the Cowboys did yesterday) and the Eagles don't have much else. It's been a good year for Philly, but the ride is over.

Dishonorable mention: The Denver Broncos. Or should I say Josh McDaniels. Denver started off 6-0 under the first year coach even though he had spent the preseason battling with his players and trading away his starting QB. After beating the Pats in Week 6 McDaniels stormed around the stadium roaring and screaming. He certainly earned the right to let it all out. It was a big win. But it was kind of a startling show of emotion for an NFL head coach. It's fine to show emotions but you shouldn't look like a college cheerleader (or frat boy). You wouldn't see Parcells doing that. Or Shula. Or Dungy. It made me wonder if he could keep control of his team the whole year. Turns out he couldn't.

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