A new season

The 2012 NFL season has become must-see TV.

Forget "Game of Thrones." Forget "Fringe." Forget "Mad Men." (OK, don't forget "Game of Thrones.") The 2012 NFL season is providing more drama, romance, and comedy than anything cable TV can come up with ... and they haven't even played a game yet.

You want drama? How about Bounty-gate. The not-so-saintly New Orleans Saints' coaching staff being exposed as men who put a price (literally) on winning. A price that they are now paying for with their head coach's head. Sean Payton was suspended for the entire season. That's harsh. I thought four games. I guess he knew more about Bounty-gate than previously thought. Former D coach Greg Williams, the masterslime behind the whole mess, has been suspended indefinitely. There should be a job for him coaching Arena Football. The Saints -- just a few years removed from their Super Bowl title -- are in shambles. No coach. Franchise QB Drew Brees is unhappy with his non-contract. They are getting hit much harder than the Pats did for Spygate.

You want romance? How about Peyton Manning and John Elway walking hand-in-hand in the Rockies as they listen to John Denver on their matching orange iPods. They are the new Tom and Gisele. Will their romance result in a pair of sparkly new rings? That all depends on how the rings in Manning's spine hold up.

You want comedy? How about Tim "Jesus" Tebow going to Gotham City to play for Eatipus Rex. How is the son of God going to feel when Ryan tells him to "go get me an effin' snack"? Maybe Rex and the rest of the Jets can teach young Tebow all about teamwork, sportsmanship, and class. Oh that's right, they reportedly brought in Tebow to help fix the team's toxic chemistry. I guess cornerback Antonio Cromartie didn't get the memo when he Tweeted "We don't need Tebow."

The Jets trading for Tebow is just too good to be true ... if you are a Patriots fan. The team just gave their fragile franchise QB Mark Sanchez a nice contract extension to let him know that he is their man. Then less than a week later they trade for his replacement, uh, I mean his backup. I look forward to flipping on the NFL RedZone (I miss you Scott Hanson) and watching a Jets home game against ... let's say the much-improved Bills. The new Bills D line is knocking the heck out of Sanchez. The shaken QB tosses a few costly picks. The Jets fall behind early. A sound rises from the crowd as Fireman Ed sits with his hands on his helmet. What's that the crowd is chanting? It's kind of catchy... "Teee-bow... Tee-bow ... Tee-bow." Louder and louder. Mt. Ryan is faced with a decision bigger than his green gut. Stick with his guy Sanchez ... the real NFL quarterback ... or cave to the wishes of the crowd and put in Tebow?

Can you say quarterback controversy? If you don't think the chances of this happening aren't 100 percent then you don't watch much football. This will be the mother of all quarterback controversies.

Oh, and one more thing about Tebow. The Pats played him twice last year. Once in the playoffs. Combined score 88-33. Pats. Yes, Rex. Please get him on the field as often as possible.

The NFL ... It's a hit!

Bounty-gate. Sounds so much cooler than Spygate. Doesn't it?

I won't get into which is the bigger evil (because I would have to say "cheating" is always worse), but the debate during the last few days about the New Orleans Saints taking out bounties on opposing players has been very interesting indeed. Especially when the debate is among former NFL players.

Mike Golic of ESPN, one of the more likable ex-players turned talking head, has been the most outspoken that bounty-gate is much ado about nothing. Golic was as tough as they come on the field. He played defensive line for Notre Dame and then in the NFL in the late '80s and early '90s. As he says ... "I was going to hit you as hard as I could whether there was an extra five grand on the line or not." I believe him. But that's Golic. He was tough, but not insane. Not a borderline criminal. You can't say that about all of today's players. Or yesterday's.

How do you think ex-Pat Brandon Meriweather would react if told he could make an extra $5,000 if he made sure the opposing quarterback was carried off the field and didn't come back. They haven't created knee pads strong enough to stop him. And that's what this is all about. Greg Williams, one of the slimier coaches to walk the NFL sideline during the past few decades, allegedly told his players to "get as close to the line" of decent behavior as they could and he would tell them when they went over the line. That's different from telling a player to hit hard, intimidate, play all-out all the time. It just is.

It's a mindset. Of course NFL players -- mostly on defense -- are going to try to hit opponents as hard as they can. That's the nature of the game. That's why the equipment continues to get bigger and bigger. But if before the coin is tossed, before the first ball is snapped, an entire team's mentality is not just to hit hard but hit with intent to injure then that does change the way players approach the game. Football and violence are synonymous. Football and assault should not be. There are clean, hard hits. And there are dirty, hard hits. Greg Williams was urging his players to be dirty. And he was seeing that they were financially rewarded for it. That should bring nothing less than a lifetime suspension.

I'm not an NFL peacenik. I still miss the bench-clearing hockey brawls. Rodney Harrison is one of my all-time favorites. I wanted Favre hit hard and hit often in 2010 along with everyone else in the football loving world (except ESPN employees of course). As Golic says, this stuff has been going on since the game began. But times are changing. The lines are being redrawn. And coaches advocating injuring players is way across that line.

The NFL has been putting out "The NFL's Hardest Hits!" videos since the moment the VCR was invented. It's part of the game. One of the best parts. And the league has been selling it for years. But there really is a difference between hitting someone as hard as you can and hitting them so that the doctors have to pick their parts up off the turf. The league has been trying to control the violence in the game. Especially the violence that leads to serious injuries like concussions. It's an uphill battle but one worth climbing. That's why the response should be harsh. You can line a player up for a hard hit, but if there's an extra $5k on the table you might just line him up a little lower. Say, at the knees. The message the bounties were sending was that it's not just good enough to hit hard, you have to hit hard enough to injure.

Mike Golic might not think there is a difference. But a guy like Brandon Meriweather would.

Reading material

Wild-card weekend lived up to its name... mostly due to the instant-classic the Steelers and Broncos staged yesterday evening in Denver. The Saints offense looked awesome (again). The Giants D looked even better than it did in '07 (yikes). The Texans, even with TJ Yates at QB, looked good enough to go into Baltimore and pull the upset (please). But it was the Broncos and the Steelers that are the talk of the football world today. Well, as usual, most of the talk is about Tebow.

• The Christian Science Monitor -- how fitting -- weighs in with an interesting piece on how Tebow not being great is what makes Tebow great. 
• The Denver Post is finding religion. Tebow's performance in the thriller over Pittsburgh has lifted the holy spirits all around Colorado. It's been that magical.
• And let's not forget the Steel City. Pittsburgh is not used to losing games like that. I'm not used to seeing Pittsburgh losing games like that. I could get used to it. Reading some of the Steelers stories today, it was clear that this loss was less of a surprise in Pittsburgh than it was to me.

The Saints, Giants, Broncos, and Texans all looked capable of being this year's "team that gets hot in the playoffs." Their victories set up one of the most promising divisional rounds I can remember. In the NFC, the high-octane offense of the Saints against the stone-wall D of the Niners is a classic speed vs. brute force contest. The other NFC game is the Giants, looking very dangerous, going into Lambeau to take on the 15-1 defending champs. If the Packers are going to repeat, they are going to have to beat the Giants and either New Orleans or San Fran. That's a tough road back to the Super Bowl. In the AFC, the game that has the least buzz is Houston at Baltimore. It could turn out to be the best game of the weekend. Both teams can run and play nasty defense. And each can pass just enough to make plays. I will be hoping Houston pulls the upset, of course, because I'd rather not see Terrell Suggs chasing Brady all over the field during the AFC title game. THE game of the weekend will take place Saturday night at Gillette. There will be lots of talk this week about how lucky the Pats are to get Denver. That they should win rather easily. There are no sure things in the playoffs. Just look at yesterday's Broncos game.

Let the games begin

 It's playoff time... or as Jim Mora would say... Playoffs?!!!! Playoffs?!!!!

The word may have struck a nerve with Mora, but it's the favorite word of NFL fans. And it starts today.

It all kicks off with wild-card weekend, a weekend that the Pats have often had the luxury of watching along with the rest of us this past decade. The four matchups are often some of the best football games of the year. This year should be no different. So who will win? That's the best part... they are hard games to predict. But what the heck...

Cincinnati 30, Houston 17

New Orleans 37, Detroit 27

NY Giants 20, Atlanta 17

Denver 17, Pittsburgh 16

Tournament teams

The very entertaining 2011 NFL regular season -- the one that almost wasn't -- has come to an end. Tebow. The Pack's run at 16-0. The Jets' collapse. Passing records falling like Ocho trying to catch a ball. The Harbaugh brothers. Very entertaining indeed. I thought the Pats would barely win the AFC East with an 11-5 record. They won the division a little easier than that. The Pats are the top seed in the AFC again. The defending champs are the top in the NFC. Will they stage a rematch of the '96 Super Bowl? New Orleans, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, or San Fran might have something to say about that. Here's my final Top 12. Why 12? Because that's how many playoff teams there are.

1. Green Bay Packers (15-1): Can they repeat like the '04 Pats? Yes they can. Will they? We'll see. Aaron Rodgers and his offense can score from anywhere on the field. Ryan Grant's return to health has gone under the radar but will be big in the playoffs. The Packers D gives up just as many yards as the Pats, but none of the experts seem to be concerned about that. Preseason rank: #3.

2. New Orleans Saints (13-3): Can they stop the Pack from back-to-back titles? Yes they can. Will they? We'll see. Drew Brees is unstoppable. He led my nephew Pete to a fantasy title almost single-handed. He looks ready to do the same in real football. If I were given a grand and told to put it on one team right now ... it would be the Saints. Preseason rank: #7.

3. New England Patriots (13-3): Since the two teams ranked ahead of the Pats are both in the NFC, that puts the Pats in the Super Bowl. Right? But that's getting way ahead of things. First they have to win a home playoff game. If it's Cincy or Denver coming to town in two weeks, I think the team gets the playoff monkey off its back. If it's the Steelers, well I think the Pats will still get that win but that is typed with a lot less confidence. Two words: Brady. Belichick. Preseason rank: #2.

4. Baltimore Ravens (12-4): The team that has the best chance of ruining another January for Pats fans. I've been expecting the team in black and purple to make a deep playoff run for a few years now. It's still hasn't happened. And the Hall of Fame defense is getting a little old. If the offense can make some plays they will be hard to beat. There is one guy I don't want to see walking into Gillette this month... Terrell Suggs. Preseason rank: #4.

5. San Francisco 49ers (13-3): The Niners will get a bit overshadowed by all the talk about the Pack and the Saints. They shouldn't. They are the dark horse that just might lap the field with their defense. They allowed the second fewest points this season. Patrick Willis is a beast. As is running back Frank Gore. The key will be how does young QB Alex Smith handle the playoff pressure. Preseason rank: #16.

6. Detroit Lions (10-6): Any playoff game that the Detroit Lions are playing in I am watching. This team is entertaining on so many levels. The passing game is explosive. As are the tempers of the head coach and the best defensive player. Big passes. Big penalties. You never know what can happen when the Lions are on the field. Good and bad. Preseason rank: #17.

7. Atlanta Falcons (10-6): The Falcons did not look sharp in their game against New Orleans two weeks ago. Not sharp at all. But the Saints can do that to teams. Atlanta has some talent. Matt Ryan leads a strong passing game and that's balanced with a power running game. The defense makes plays. Atlanta is very strong at home. Unfortunately they won't be having any home playoff games. Preseason rank: #6.

8. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4): The Steelers would be a few rungs higher if not for the small issue of their starting running back and starting quarterback being unable to walk. But Mike Tomlin's Steelers have always been dangerous when wounded. It's the signature of his teams. Tough. But their road through the playoffs will be just a little too tough this time around. Preseason rank: #8.

9. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7): I think Cincy goes into Houston and wins easily. So they get the nod in the rankings. The Bengals started fast this year, running up wins against a group of mediocre teams. Their second half schedule was filled with playoff teams -- and losses. But I was at the Bengals loss at Baltimore in  November and I liked what I saw. The Bengals are a good team that has played some good football but lost to better teams. That changes. Preseason rank: #31.

10. Houston Texans (10-6): The Texans would be higher too if not for the small issue of the team being on its fourth starting QB. If healthy, the Texans would be a major threat. They are still a threat thanks to their defense, but not a major one. The Texans are hoping TJ Yates is healthy enough to play. That's what kind of year it has been for Houston. Hoping TJ Yates can play. Cincy's defense is probably hoping that too. Preseason rank: #9.

11. New York Giants (9-7): The best pass rush in the playoffs. Is that enough to launch Eli on another improbable Super Bowl run? I hope not. But any Tom Coughlin team is dangerous. Any team with little Manning is dangerous. Any team with both Bradshaw and Jacobs at running back is dangerous. Any team with Cruz and Nicks at WR is dangerous. I might have the Giants ranked too low. Preseason rank: #18.

12. Denver Broncos (8-8): I don't have the Broncos ranked too low. That's for sure. What the heck happened to Tim Tebow? Ever since "SNL" did that Jesus skit the team hasn't won a game. The "SNL" jinx? Hmmm... Not surprisingly it didn't take NFL coaches long to start slowing Tebow down. I caught the last quarter of the team's loss to KC. Tebow looked like he had regressed back to his first few weeks. Or maybe the whole offense had. They come into the playoffs on a three-game losing streak. A well-earned losing streak. Preseason rank: #23.

Dishonorable mention:: I've been waiting to write this for two years... The New York Jets. (Sorry Jim). Rex Ryan, Mr. Big Mouth and Bigger Toes, reportedly cried when addressing his players the day after their season ended in flames. Really, there were almost actual flames. Team "captain" Santonio Holmes was benched after getting into an argument in the huddle. LT was his usual back-stabbing self at the end. Ryan cried. Bursting ... into ... flames. Mt. Ryan has already started making his Super Bowl predictions for next year. It was kind of laughable the previous two years after the team lost in the AFC title game. This year, after their train wreck 8-8 finish, it's Stooges funny. Preseason rank: #1. Very funny.

Tourney time

It's the most wonderful time of the year. I'm not talking about that joyous week after all the stress and obligations and annoyances from the holidays have finally passed. I'm talking the NFL playoffs. The bye-week Patriots will be sitting comfortably on their couches along with the rest of us watching what should be some very entertaining and close battles.

I haven't done the research -- because that's not what I do here -- but this may be the first time in NFL history that all four road teams (the wild cards) either have the same or better record than the four division winners. How will that effect the results? Who knows. Here are my largely uneducated picks for Wild Card weekend:

AFC

NY Jets (11-5) at Indianapolis (10-6): I could go with my heart and say Colts 45, Jets 3. But my head says Mt. Ryan and the Jets are the slightly better team. Neither has looked that impressive down the stretch but the Jets have more healthy weapons on offense and -- despite the loss of safety Jim Leonard -- the defense should be strong in the playoffs. The Colts are saying they plan on trying to match the Jets run for run with a healthy Joe Addai. Right. Manning will be throwing the ball all over the place. The two teams met in the AFC title game last year and the Jets squandered a 17-7 lead. This time they hold on. Jets 26, Colts 23.

Baltimore (12-4) at Kansas City (10-6): This is the game I'm most interested in watching. I predicted the Chiefs would capture the AFC West crown and they did. But it would have been more impressive of they hadn't lost to the Raiders in the season finale. But they did. This is the classic matchup of the playoff veteran (Ravens) vs. the playoff rookie (Chiefs). The veteran almost always wins. But Arrowhead will be red and rockin'. It will be fun to watch. I think Matt Cassell and the Chiefs channel some Patriot magic and shut down -- and shut up -- Ray Lewis and the Ravens. Chiefs 20, Ravens 13.

NFC

New Orleans (11-5) at Seattle (7-9): You read that right. 7-9. The Seahawks are the first team to make the playoffs with a losing record. And they did it in style, dropping seven of their last 10 games. But Pete Carroll and his squad are P'd and J'd to be in the playoffs and are -- incredibly -- at home. Like KC, Seattle is a very tough place to play. But the defending champs know how to win on the road. And they should win easily. The Saints have looked shaky at times, but this is the playoffs. They are the champs. The only question should be is it a high or low scoring game? That will all depend on the weather. The forecast looks decent -- for the Northwest. Saints 45, Seahawks 27.


Green Bay (10-6) at Philadephia (10-6): Michael Vick and the Eagles were all the rage a few weeks ago when they made that improbably rally against the Giants. That was a couple of weeks ago. Since then Mad Dog Vick has looked mortal-ish. As have the Eagles. But a team with Vick, DeSean, and LeSean are a potent offensive force. The Eagles will need all three against a ferocious Packers' D. Aaron Rodgers brings his own passing attack. These two teams are about as evenly matched as you can get. Tie goes to the home team. Eagles 21, Packers 20.

Final review

What was a great NFL regular season came to a curious end this past Sunday. The Seahawks and Rams closed out the day with a winner-take-all NFC West clash. Normally you would think that would be a great game. However, the Rams were 7-8 and the Pete Carroll-led Seahawks were 6-9. Yes, 6-9 and playing for a division title. Which Seattle won in a really poor exhibition of football. The Seahawks may be one of the 12 teams in the playoffs, but they are not close to one of the 12 best teams. However, the other 11 that did make the playoffs are all very good teams. As usual, the tournament is wide open.

1. New England Patriots (14-2): I optimistically thought the Pats would be 13-3. They were really only a handful of big-plays-not-made away from a much better year last year. I just figured that a Belichick-coached team would start to make more plays. But not this many. From Woodhead to Gronk, McCourty to Chung, young players have stepped up week after week to make life that much easier for Brady and Wilfork. Like every playoff team, the Pats have issues. But to this point they have been able to overcome them.

2. Atlanta Falcons (13-3): The NFC's version of the Patriots? Pretty much. The Falcons' D is -- statistically at least -- a little better than New England's but the Pats offense is a little better. The Falcons have a balanced attack. Matt Ryan, Roddy White, and Michael Turner are as good a trio as there is. Atlanta is playoff ready, having played in and won a tough division with both New Orleans and Tampa. Like the Pats, the Falcons rarely beat themselves. The Saints are the defending champs, but Atlanta has to be the NFC favorite.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4): Tom Brady is clearly the MVP of the league. Most people put Michael Vick right behind him. Not me. I'd put Troy Polamalu and his curls in that spot. The Steelers are a good team without him (which for Steeler fans is probably too often). They are a great team with him. He is a difference maker. It seemed that every time I watched a Pittsburgh game he would be making a game-winning play. On the other side of the ball, Big Ben is as tough as they come and a proven champ. I'm just glad if the Pats and Steelers meet that it will be in Foxborough.

4. New Orleans Saints (11-5): The defending champs sure took some knocks this year. Losses to Cleveland and Arizona were partly due to injuries and partly due to just how difficult it is to repeat. Each year that goes by makes me appreciate more the back-to-back 14-2 seasons the Pats put up. Like the Patriots, New Orleans has a great coach and QB. Unlike the Pats, the Saints D has played well this year. It looked like they were getting healthy again, only to lose a few key players in the season finale. Can the Saints get back to the Super Bowl? I wouldn't bet against them.

5. Baltimore Ravens (12-4): Fortunately the Ravens won't be coming to Gillette in the first round. They are headed west to play KC. I would think they would be favored. They are that good. Baltimore plays a perfect style for the playoffs. Tough, hard-nosed on offense and defense. Ray Lewis will be screaming while Ed Reed makes plays. I'll be rooting for the Chiefs to get the Ravens out of the playoffs. If it doesn't happen, Baltimore is capable of going into Pittsburgh or New England (or both) and winning.

6. Chicago Bears (11-5): I'm just not a Bears believer. The coach often looks clueless. The QB often looks brainless. Yet they earned a bye. Reason? Julius Peppers and the defense. Chicago finished fourth in the league in points allowed. With Peppers causing havoc on the line, the Bears were second in the league against the run. Surprisingly, with Peppers also leading a solid pass rush, they were only 20th against the pass. The Bears might make it to the NFL title game, but if it is in Atlanta I think their season ends there. Although I would love them to get to the Super Bowl against the Patriots. '85 avenged!

7. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6): Philly was riding high after their comeback against the Giants in Week 15. Sitting at 10-4, the Eagles had a good shot at a bye. They proceeded to lose their last two games, to Minnesota and Dallas. Two teams out of the playoff race. So much for being the team to beat. Michael Vick is always dangerous. He can win a game by himself. The Eagles will be tough to beat at home in the Wild Card round. After that I'm not so sure.

8. New York Jets (11-5): Huh. I thought Rex Ryan had said something at the start of the season about the Jets finishing with the best record in the league. Maybe I was mistaken. Gang Green hasn't recovered from the Monday night beating at Gillette. Actually, they haven't recovered from the loss of safety and defensive captain Jim Leonard. An old school guy like that is hard to replace. QB Sanchez showed last year that he can handle the playoff pressure. That is key. Playing on the road is not a problem for the Jets. That makes them very dangerous.

9. Indianapolis Colts (10-6): Peyton Manning makes it to the tourney again. This one wasn't easy. Even though the Colts were in the Super Bowl last year, they won a lot of games in miraculous fashion to get there. They were good. And they were lucky. They haven't been as lucky this year. Nor as good. The thinking is that any team with #18 at QB will be tough to beat. True. The Colts aren't as well coached as the Pats, Steelers, or Ravens and they won't have the comfort of their dome when it really counts. The Super Bowl-loser hangover has been a real killer.

10. Kansas City Chiefs (10-6): My favorite team other than the Pats (Len Dawson, Hank Stram, 65 Toss Power Trap) has gotten back on track thanks to several ex Pats. The Chiefs held off the overrated Chargers to win the AFC West and are tough to beat at home. They only lost to one playoff team all year (Indy). Problem is they only played one playoff team all year. Not the way to get playoff ready. But coaches Charlie Weiss and Romeo Crennel have lots of playoff experience. That should help an inexperienced Matt Cassell.

11. Green Bay Packers (10-6): The Pack may have underachieved more than any other playoff team. Then again, if you look at the key injuries the team had maybe they actually overachieved. Either way, they are a very dangerous 10-6 wild card team. Aaron Rodgers and the offense (even without a running game) can put up points in a hurry. But like division rival Chicago, the key to the Pack's success is the defense. Green Bay, led by linebackers Clay Matthews and A.J. Hawk, gave up only 15 points a game. If they can maintain that in the playoffs they should be in the NFC title game.

12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-6): The only non-playoff team on the list. Raheem Morris went 3-13 in his rookie year in '09. His team made huge strides this year. Without a lot of top shelf talent. That's the sign of a good coach. Mike Singletary should watch and learn. No-name players Josh Freeman (QB) and LeGarrette Blount (RB) gave the offense some life. The defense, led by Ronde Barber and Aqib Talib, was ninth in the league in points allowed. The Bucs are worthy of being a playoff team even if they won't be there.

Dishonorable mention: The entire NFC West. Come on. Not one of these teams could muster a winning record? How's that possible? I thought the Niners would take advantage of an easy division and win 11 games. They won 6. Then I thought the Cardinals -- division winners the last few years -- could step up. Five wins. That left the "rebuilding" Seahawks and Rams to stage an epic battle for the division. Seattle, at 7-9, took the division crown. Hey, somebody had to win it.

Open season

So let me get this straight. This may be the most wide-open season the NFL has ever seen and the Patriots decide to trade away one of the best wide receivers in the game? Because he told Tom Brady he looked like a girl since Gisele won't let him cut his hair? Nice.

BOLDIN & RICE: Raven mad.

There are no unbeaten teams left in the NFL and it's only Week 5. Indy saw to that with a not-so-impressive win over KC. The defending champ Saints lost to Arizona who were lead by some quarterback named Max Hall. Max Hall? The Giants went from toast to tied atop the division after putting a whuppin' on the red hot Texans. Mike Shanahan's Skins pulled out their second straight narrow victory, this time knocking off the Packers with an OT win. The Raiders upset the Chargers and are now tied with them. The entire AFC South is 3-2. There are only two teams without a win. And one of them is the Niners who could still win 7 or 8 games if they can get that first one.

There are 14 teams with three wins. That's almost half the league. It's the NFL's version of the Wild West. And the Pats decided to shoot one of their horses. Nice.

But I'm over it now.

Until Monday night when Randy Moss and the Vikings take on the Jets. How happy will I be if Moss scores three TDs to lead the Vikes past Mt. Ryan and his gang? Very. (And that's not even factoring in that Moss is on my fantasy team. My sister is mauling me so bad that if Moss puts up 30 points it won't help.)

There are no elite teams in the NFL in 2010. But win or lose on MNF, the Jets are clearly one of the NFL's best. But they may have been passed as the best. By the Baltimore Ravens. The Pats' next opponent.

The Ravens won their third straight, bucking the Broncos 31-17. Battering-ram running back Ray Rice returned from injury and rushed for 133 yards on 27 carries. The Ravens ran for an eye-catching 233 yards. Joe Flacco added 200 yards of controlled passing with no picks. Denver's Kyle Orton did put up over 300 yards in the air, but almost 100 of that came on two long passes to Brandon Lloyd. That's where Baltimore is vulnerable. On the long ball. Moss could have a big day ... oh, right. Nice.

This is the revenge game I've been waiting for since my Don Julio-less January afternoon. As big as that road win in Miami was last week, a win against the Ravens in any form will be much bigger. It will mean the Pats can go toe-to-toe with any team. But it won't be easy.

I would have major concerns about the game even if Moss wasn't traded. The defense showed some signs of improvement against Miami but after watching the tape of the game it was clear Chad Henne and the Dolphin offense were their own worst enemy. The defense made some plays. But surrendered many more.

Confidence level for the Pats D going up against Ray Rice, Joe Flacco, Anquan Boldin, and TJ Housh? Low.

The Pats offense actually only put up 13 "real" points against Miami. Their other touchdown came after a blocked punt gave them the ball on the Dolphin 15. I would almost put that TD in the special teams category. They are down to Ben Jarvis as their starting runner. And now they don't have Randy Moss. Brady has nine touchdowns and only two picks and the offensive line has looked very solid. Welker and Hernandez are still dangerous. But the Ravens D is the best in the league.

Confidence level for the Pats offense going up against Ray Lewis and the rest of that defense? Medium.

I still think Brady and Belichick will be so intent on atoning for last year's playoff disaster that the Pats will win a very tight game. But when you look at the two teams closely, it's very possible that the playoff blowout was not a fluke.

Four score

The NFL has hit the quarter mark of the 16-game schedule. (What's a quarter of 18? Just another problem with the proposed "enhanced" season.) Only four of the 32 teams have yet to record a victory. And those teams (SF, Buf, Det, Car) have all come very close to at least one win. The 2010 season looks like it's going to be up for grabs the whole way. There don't appear to be too many contenders to finish 15-1 or 14-2. I wouldn't be surprised to see the best record end up at 12-4, or even 11-5. That hasn't happened since the 2002 season.

Who are the contenders for that 12-4 record? Here are the top 10 after four games:

1. New York Jets (3-1): There's no debating it. The Jets -- so far -- have backed up Rex Ryan's big talk. After their lame opener against the Ravens, the Green have responded with three straight division wins. They have done it without several key starters on defense. Sanchez -- who proved in the playoffs last year that he had the makeup to be a good NFL quarterback -- has not thrown a pick yet this year. Last year the Jets gave away several games they could have won. You get the feeling that won't happen as much this year.

2. New Orleans Saints (3-1): All three victories that the defending champs have were hanging in the balance till the last play. The Saints are somewhat fortunate to be 3-1. Brees has really yet to kick it into gear yet. -- I should know, he's my fantasy QB -- but he will. Probably soon. They have games against Arizona, Tampa, and Cleveland coming up. They'll be 6-1 and leading the NFC when those games are done.

3. Baltimore Ravens (3-1): There are 10 teams with three wins and another 14 with two. That's 24 out of 32 teams. And they are all pretty close. The Ravens have the potential when all is said and done to be the best among those teams. They went into Pittsburgh and handed the Steelers their first loss, winning on a touchdown pass with 30 seconds to play. A great pass by Flacco. Followed by a great interception by Ray Lewis to wrap the game up. The Ravens have solid leaders and solid coaching. It's gonna be a heck of a game at Gillette.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1): Did they really win three games with Big Ben on suspension? No wonder I can't stand the Steelers. They lost a tough one at home to Baltimore, but were so close to being 4-0. While the offense survived without Roethlisberger, the defense thrived. The Steelers D is first against the run and first in points allowed. They are only 19th against the pass however. That could prove to be a fatal weakness.

5. Green Bay Packers (3-1): The Pack has one of the best offenses in the game even without running back Ryan Grant. Aaron Rodgers has as many weapons as Tom Brady and knows how to spread the ball around. And the Pack's D is better than the Pats -- at this moment.  But they lost a big game to the Bears and almost lost to Detroit. They have games coming up at Washington and home against Miami and Minnesota. That's a tough stretch.

6. New England Patriots (3-1):  Was there a team more due for a big road win? The 41-14 win in Miami showed the many strengths that the 2010 Pats have. An offense that is now quicker and tougher than it was last year. Brady, when he's in command of the game, is still the best. A coaching staff that seems to be more in sync with its players. Young, fast athletes that can make plays. Monday night all those strengths made up for the one, still glaring weakness. An inexperienced defense that has almost no pass rush.

7. Houston Texans (3-1): The other Texas team may be the real dark horse to win a Super Bowl this year. Houston opened its season by defeating division nemesis Indy. Running back Arian Foster has the Texans leading the league in rushing. That's significant for a team that already had a dangerous passing game. Mario Williams is becoming the pass rushing beast worthy of being the first player taken in the draft. Add to that a solid coach in Gary Kubiak and the Texans are going to be good for years to come.

8. Indianapolis Colts (2-2): The only two-win team to be considered in the top 10. Why? Peyton Manning of course. The Colts can't stop the run. They are starting to show some signs of age on the defense. Pierre Garcon has taken a big step back, although Austin Collie has taken a step forward. They are in a brutal division. But they have Manning.

9. Atlanta Falcons (3-1): Matt Ryan and the Falcons are the NFC's dark horse (now that my pick the Niners are 0-4). The Falcons have that punishing running/solid passing combo on offense that can beat you in many ways. The defense has stepped it up in the first month, allowing only 15 points per game. And they have already gone into New Orleans and knocked off the defending champs.

10. Kansas City Chiefs (3-0): They're the only unbeaten team left so they have to make the top 10. And I listed them as my AFC surprise team in my preseason rankings where I had them at #11. Have the boys in red looked dominant in their 3-0 start? Not at all. The other teams that are possible top 10 material are San Diego, Chicago, Cincy, Denver, and the entire NFC East. But the Chiefs get the nod because they haven't lost yet. They will soon.

Dishonorable mention: San Francisco 49ers. Also in my preseason rankings I raved about coach Mike Singletary and how he was going to lead the Niners back to the top of the NFC West and maybe as far as the conference title game. I knew he was still that linebacker with the crazed look in his eyes but I thought that would motivate and inspire his team. Mostly it just seems to scare them. Me too.

Rank and file

The NFL season opens tonight but you wouldn't know it from listening to all the sports reports. You may have heard Tom Brady was in a car accident this morning. He was not injured and was at practice today. You would think he was on life support from the over-the-top media coverage. Helicopters and live remotes from Gillette. Just another reason I sometimes long for the day of the newspaper and the six o'clock news sports report.

Once I heard Brady was fine (which was about 10 a.m.) my thoughts turned to the 2010 season and where the Pats (with Brady) stand. When the schedule came out in April I thought the team could win 12 or 13 games. Since then the defense has lost Ty Warren, Leigh Bodden, and Brandon McGowan. A defense that was already uncertain is now unstable. If the Pats play up to their abilities on offense they should win 10 games. To compete to be one of the best teams in the AFC the defense is going to have to surprise a lot of people. Including me.

Here's my rankings going into tonight's Saints-Vikings opener. As with all rankings, it's meaningless.

1. New Orleans Saints: You have to go with the defending champs (except when it's Ben Roethlisberger's Steelers). A top ranking doesn't mean the Saints are destined to win back-to-back titles, but Drew Brees and company are still the guys to beat. New Orleans has everything a team needs to repeat. Good coach, great QB, playmakers all over the field, great home field advantage. If the Pats can't win their fourth, I'll be rooting for the Saints to win their second.

2. Baltimore Ravens: If I was basing these rankings on the Ravens playoff game against the Pats they would be at the top. That was as dominating a road playoff win as I've witnessed. Unfortunately. Since then the Ravens have added monster receiver Anquan Boldin, a couple of tight ends, TJ Housh, and DL Corey Redding. Flaco and Ray Rice are young but already play like veterans. Jim Harbaugh is one of those "right coach for the right team" kind of guys. The only question mark is the defense. That's a strange thing to say about the Ravens.

3. Indianapolis Colts: Peyton Manning came so close to his second Lombardi Trophy. So close. Manning will be a man obsessed. The Colts remind me of the '07 Patriots. After having lost to the Colts in the heartbreaking AFC title game in Indy, the Patriots were on a mission. A perfect season mission. We know the Colts don't want to go for a perfect season. That attitude may be the only thing that can get in their way.

4. Green Bay Packers: The Pack is the NFC's best chance of stopping the Saints from getting back to the Super Bowl. The key for them will be home field advantage in the playoffs. Green Bay finished 11-5 and were looking like a real playoff challenger but they wilted in the Arizona desert in the first round. Aaron Rodgers has proved that the Packers -- for many reasons that are now very clear -- made the right decision in cutting ties with the greatest player in the history of the league. The Pack is that rare team that has a strong offense and a defense that is just as good. AJ Hawk and Clay Matthews remind me of Vrabel and Bruschi.

5. Minnesota Vikings: Without #4 the Vikings would be near the bottom of the top 10. That's how good he was last year. But it doesn't matter. I could rank the Vikings first and the season would still end with Favre tossing an interception to stake their season. Till that moment Vikes' fans will have a great time. Adrian Peterson. Steve Hutchinson. Cedric Griffin. Jared Allen. The Vikes are a good team. With #4 they are a very good team.

6. New England Patriots:: Too high, you say? I agree. But here are the teams competing with the Pats for this spot: NY Jets, San Diego, Pittsburgh, Cincy, Miami, Houston, Dallas, Atlanta, San Fran, Philly. The Jets would already be gone on most rankings. I'm not buying yet. They were lucky to finish 9-7 last year. The Chargers, Steelers, Cowboys, and the rest are all good teams. Any of them could win 11 or 12 games. But I'll take the team with Brady and Belichick till proven otherwise. Weaknesses and all.

7. New York Jets: As I said, the Jets were lucky to make the playoffs last year. Rex Ryan even proclaimed them eliminated at one point. The coach likes to say -- among many other things -- that they were one win away from the Super Bowl. They were also one loss away from 8-8 and no playoffs. A 9-7 team that did well in the playoffs is a solid pick to take the next step. The Jets have more skill on offense with Edwards, Holmes, and  LT. On defense, now that Revis is signed, the Jets are one of the best. I just remember how they played below their abilities a lot last year. That would be coaching.

8. Dallas Cowboys: Speaking of coaching... We come to the Cowboys and Wade Phillips. Dallas has a very good team. Romo, Whitten, Miles Austin, DeMarcus Ware, Mike Jenkins. The 'Boys have been a contender almost every year under Phillips. Last year they ended a 13-year playoff victory drought. That was a big step. I think it would take Bum's son another 13 years to win two playoff games in the same season.

9: San Francisco 49ers: Mike Singletary is the anti-Phillips. He doesn't have a lengthy coaching pedigree. He's as intense as Philips is oval. The Niners are my dark horse NFC pick. They could be playing in the NFC title game. For that to happen young QB Alex Smith needs to take the next step. He has lots of help on the offensive side of the ball. That should make it easier for him. The D is questionable against the pass. But like Singletary the player, the Niners will be slugging till the final gun every Sunday,

10. Pittsburgh Steelers: Peter King picks the Steelers to win the Super Bowl. The best part is his lead is pretty much admitting the everyone is going to think he is crazy. But then, unfortunately for those of us that don't want to see the Black and Gold win another title, he makes a pretty convincing case. Peter King is the Gammons of football. But I'm still not sold on Mike Tomlin (coaching -- again). He has a ring. He earned it. But it was a team built by the great Bill Cowher. With the Big Ben suspension, loss of Santonio Holmes, and a very tough division, it will be an impressive accomplishment -- and prediction -- if the Steelers do win it all.

11. Kansas City Chiefs: Patriots West. The Chiefs, always my favorite NFL team that's not the Pats, are my pick for surprise team. I think they have enough to take the AFC West away from the Chargers. Scott Pioli is going to have success at some point in KC. It starts this year. Matt Cassell  starts his second season in the best uniforms in the league. Cassell has a true running game this year with Thomas Jones and second-year man Jamaal Charles. Tennessee safety Eric Berry is an impact rookie that fits the Pioli mold. He joins Mike Vrabel, Brandon Flowers, and Glenn Dorsey on what should be an improved D. Oh, and the Chiefs now have Charlie Weiss and Romeo Crennel as their coordinators.

12. San Diego Chargers: Norv Turner. You see why I have the Pats at six? The Chargers are another very good team with an anchor for a coach. Like Phillips, Turner is actually a good coach. Just not when the playoffs start. But Phillip Rivers is a gunslinger and the defense is still scary. The Chargers will win their division if the Chiefs aren't the surprise team I think they are. Either way San Diego will get to the playoffs. But not much further.

13. Cincinnati Bengals: Cincy swept its AFC North foes 6-0 last season. That's not happening again. Not because the Bengals are worse, but because the Ravens and Steelers won't allow it. The story in Cincy is T.O. joining Ochocinco. This is either going to be an explosive combination with Carson Palmer or a total meltdown. T.O.'s track record speaks for itself.

14. Houston Texans: If Houston wasn't in Indy's division these past few years they'd have had a lot more success. But they are in the AFC South. Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Houston have taken turns giving the Colts a challenge. This year it's the Texans' turn. If QB Matt Schaub can play an entire season again then Houston has a good shot at being a playoff team because that would mean a full year of him throwing to Andre Johnson again. If young runner Arian Foster can build on the promise he showed last year then the Texans could move up.

15. Atlanta Falcons: Another team with a very good young QB. Former BC Eagle Matt Ryan has the look of a leader and can be expected to take a big step forward in his third season. Kevin Turner is the hammer that many teams are missing. When Turner injured his ankle last season the Falcons did a late season swoon. A healthy Turner is expected to return to his punishing ways. The Falcons added CB Dunta Robinson to an improving D.

16. Tennessee Titans: Jeff Fisher is a coach who can get his team to play above its potential. Two years ago the Titans were 13-3 but were shocked at home in the divisional round. Last year the team stumbled to a just as shocking 0-6 start. Then Fisher put QB Vince Young back behind center and the team turned it around to go 8-2 the rest of the way. Chris Johnson is the best back in football. The D is still a force. The Titans are one of many teams who could win anywhere between 8 and 12 games. I think Young still has a ways to go for the team to hit the high end of that number.

17. Miami Dolphins: The Wildcats are no more. Miami made it to the playoffs two seasons ago behind its sometimes effective, always entertaining attack style. Last year injuries took their toll. The players are still there. Ronnie Brown. Ricky Williams. But Chad Henne is now the QB and that is not a promising thing as far as the numbers go. He had 12 touchdowns and 14 picks last year. He was not clutch. Brandon Marshall has looked like a beast in preseason so that should make Henne's numbers better. Miami should get back into the playoff hunt and will be waiting if either the Pats or Jets falter.

18. Philadelphia Eagles: How does Andy Reid do it? Players come and go on the Philly roster and yet the team is in the playoffs year after year. This will be his biggest test ever because the one common denominator of all those teams was Donovan McNabb. The veteran QB has moved on to DC and Reid is putting his streak of success in the hands of Kevin Kolb. The consensus is that Kolb can do the job. He has explosive WR DeSean Jackson. Philly had the third most sacks in the league last year. The fact that they are not in the top 15 shows just how deep and balanced the NFL is.

19. Chicago Bears: Even Da Bears are a fun team now that Jay Cutler is at the QB position. Coach Lovie Smith is a survivor. Chicago has been mediocre since losing in the '06 Super Bowl but he is still calling the shots -- if not any plays. Offensive coordinator Mike Martz and Cutler need to really click this year for the Bears to get into the playoffs. The defense has been slowly fading these past few years, but the addition of primo free agent Julius Peppers should help with that.

20. New York Giants: The Giants started off strong last year, looking like they would build on their 13-3 season the year before. But their 5-0 record quickly dissolved in a slew of injuries on defense and an ineffective offense. The team missed the playoffs for the first time in four years and longtime coach Tom Coughlin looked sick most of the way. The team added safety Antrel Rolle and rookie linebacker Phillip Dillard out of Nebraska. Coughlin hopes they can help one of the worst pass defenses in the league.

21. Detroit Lions: Yes, the Lions almost broke the top 20! Party in Motown. Now that the Saints have won a Super Bowl, Lions fans own the position of most hopeless. The Lions haven't been good in a long, long time. They are much like the mid '90s Patriots. That team was the league's punchline. Then Parcells and Bledsoe changed that. QB Matthew Stafford might be Detroit's Bledsoe. He has a great target in Calvin Johnson. The defense has been remade with the additions of free agents Kyle Vanden Bosch and Corey Williams and rookie Ndamukong Suh of Nebraska. Have hope Lions' fans.

22. Denver Broncos: Denver was the hot story of the first half of last season, running out to a 6-0 start under first-year coach Josh McDaniels. Then the team collapsed. McDaniels did not show the he has what it takes to help right a team that is floundering. That is what separates the best coaches from the rest of the field. He'll get another test this year after trading away receivers Marshall and Tony Scheffler. RB Knowshon Moreno is the key to Denver's success. If he flounders then the Broncos will again.

23. Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jags are a puzzling team. They have a great running back in Maurice Jones-Drew and a great receiver in Mike Sims-Walker,. But unfortunately their QB only has two names and it's David Gerrard. He hasn't been able to become the effective passer the team needs. As long as Jack Del Rio is the coach the Jags will play hard every week, If they don't play well enough Del Rio's time in Jacksonville could come to an end.

24. Washington Redskins: The Skins are one of the most interesting teams heading into the 2010 season. Two-time Super Bowl champ coach Mike Shanahan came out of his brief retirement to try to finally get Washington headed in the right direction. Shanahan went out and took Donovan McNabb away from division rival Philly. The key to success in the NFL is largely due to the coach and the QB. The Skins now have a leader at both spots. If they weren't in such a tough division they'd be a sure playoff contender.

25. Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals have won their division the last two years, but not impressively. Two years ago they then caught fire and went to the Super Bowl. Last year they were one-and-done. This year there won't be any late season magic coming from the desert. They've lost Kurt Warner to retirement and traded Anquan Boldin. That's a big chunk of their offense right there. Matt Leinert was finally supposed to get his chance to show what he can do. However, he not only lost his starting job to Derek Anderson, he didn't even make the team. Anderson will probably have as many downs as ups. As will the Cardinals.

26. St. Louis Rams: Sam Bradford was considered a bit of a long shot to win the starting QB job in his rookie year. That all changed after his performance against the Pats in the preseason. If Bradford is as good as he looked that day then St. Louis will be much improved. And if Stephen Jackson can stay healthy. Those are two big "ifs." The Rams finished 1-15 in coach Steve Spagnuolo's first year. It could be a long rebuilding process.

27. Carolina Panthers: John Fox is the NFC's Jack Del Rio. A good coach who may be on his last leg. Fox and the Panthers have been trying to recapture their success since making the Super Bowl in '03 but haven't come close. Jake Delhomme and his interceptions have moved to Cleveland, replaced by... well it doesn't really matter. Steve Smith has to stay healthy to give the team some balance on an offense lead by the two-headed running back monster of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. The defense lost three starters on the line, among them Julius Peppers. He'll be hard to replace.

28. Oakland Raiders: If this is indeed where the Raiders finish then the Patriots will have the fifth pick in the 2011 draft. A pick they got for Richard Seymour. That's a trade Red Auerbach and Harry Sinden would be proud of. There's a lot of talk about improvement on the other side of the Bay Bridge. Rookie LB Rolando McClain from Alabama should make an immediate impact. Jason Campbell is an upgrade at QB. But not enough of one. I can't wait to hear ... "With the fifth pick in the draft, the New England Patriots take ... "

29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Bucs may be the team I pay the least amount of attention to in the NFL. They have no players of value for fantasy football. They are overshadowed in the NFC South by the Saints and Falcons. They don't play a very exciting brand of football. At least not one worthy of a pirate ship in the stands. Tampa was last in the league against the rush last year and have Josh Freeman as their quarterback. Maybe I have them ranked too high.

30. Seattle Seahawks: Pete Carroll is back and as pumped and jacked as ever. Did he learn anything from his four years running down the Pats? Well, he didn't seem to learn much from his time as head coach as the Jets before coming to New England. But since leaving the Pats in the late '90s he returned USC to college football glory. The Seahawks don't really have a glory to return to. Carroll is the "great college coach/lousy pro coach" guy. He takes over a team lacking offensive talent. And defensive talent. They are going to need a lot of cheerleading.

31. Buffalo Bills: I don't know which is worse for Bills fans. The glory years of the '80s and '90s when the team made it to four Super Bowls only to lose them all painfully. Or the last ten years when the team has been mostly inept. Buffalo is restarting yet again after canning coach Dick Jauron and bringing in Chan Gailey. The Bills drafted Clemson running back CJ Spiller, which was a surprise since they already had a solid back in Fred Jackson. The two could make a formidable pair. The Bills have a great secondary but that's about it on defense.

32. Cleveland Browns: This is personal. As long as Eric Mangini is coaching the Browns I'll be rooting for them to own the league's cellar. The guy broke the sports code and snitched. Yes, taping another team's coaches was cheating. But snitching is worse. Do you think the Pats are the only team to have stolen other team's signals? They're not. They are just the only team that an opposing coach ratted on. I still don't know what new GM Mike Holmgren was thinking in keeping Mangini. Maybe he was thinking he'd like to take over the team in midseason. He's going to have to.