Rank and file

The NFL season opens tonight but you wouldn't know it from listening to all the sports reports. You may have heard Tom Brady was in a car accident this morning. He was not injured and was at practice today. You would think he was on life support from the over-the-top media coverage. Helicopters and live remotes from Gillette. Just another reason I sometimes long for the day of the newspaper and the six o'clock news sports report.

Once I heard Brady was fine (which was about 10 a.m.) my thoughts turned to the 2010 season and where the Pats (with Brady) stand. When the schedule came out in April I thought the team could win 12 or 13 games. Since then the defense has lost Ty Warren, Leigh Bodden, and Brandon McGowan. A defense that was already uncertain is now unstable. If the Pats play up to their abilities on offense they should win 10 games. To compete to be one of the best teams in the AFC the defense is going to have to surprise a lot of people. Including me.

Here's my rankings going into tonight's Saints-Vikings opener. As with all rankings, it's meaningless.

1. New Orleans Saints: You have to go with the defending champs (except when it's Ben Roethlisberger's Steelers). A top ranking doesn't mean the Saints are destined to win back-to-back titles, but Drew Brees and company are still the guys to beat. New Orleans has everything a team needs to repeat. Good coach, great QB, playmakers all over the field, great home field advantage. If the Pats can't win their fourth, I'll be rooting for the Saints to win their second.

2. Baltimore Ravens: If I was basing these rankings on the Ravens playoff game against the Pats they would be at the top. That was as dominating a road playoff win as I've witnessed. Unfortunately. Since then the Ravens have added monster receiver Anquan Boldin, a couple of tight ends, TJ Housh, and DL Corey Redding. Flaco and Ray Rice are young but already play like veterans. Jim Harbaugh is one of those "right coach for the right team" kind of guys. The only question mark is the defense. That's a strange thing to say about the Ravens.

3. Indianapolis Colts: Peyton Manning came so close to his second Lombardi Trophy. So close. Manning will be a man obsessed. The Colts remind me of the '07 Patriots. After having lost to the Colts in the heartbreaking AFC title game in Indy, the Patriots were on a mission. A perfect season mission. We know the Colts don't want to go for a perfect season. That attitude may be the only thing that can get in their way.

4. Green Bay Packers: The Pack is the NFC's best chance of stopping the Saints from getting back to the Super Bowl. The key for them will be home field advantage in the playoffs. Green Bay finished 11-5 and were looking like a real playoff challenger but they wilted in the Arizona desert in the first round. Aaron Rodgers has proved that the Packers -- for many reasons that are now very clear -- made the right decision in cutting ties with the greatest player in the history of the league. The Pack is that rare team that has a strong offense and a defense that is just as good. AJ Hawk and Clay Matthews remind me of Vrabel and Bruschi.

5. Minnesota Vikings: Without #4 the Vikings would be near the bottom of the top 10. That's how good he was last year. But it doesn't matter. I could rank the Vikings first and the season would still end with Favre tossing an interception to stake their season. Till that moment Vikes' fans will have a great time. Adrian Peterson. Steve Hutchinson. Cedric Griffin. Jared Allen. The Vikes are a good team. With #4 they are a very good team.

6. New England Patriots:: Too high, you say? I agree. But here are the teams competing with the Pats for this spot: NY Jets, San Diego, Pittsburgh, Cincy, Miami, Houston, Dallas, Atlanta, San Fran, Philly. The Jets would already be gone on most rankings. I'm not buying yet. They were lucky to finish 9-7 last year. The Chargers, Steelers, Cowboys, and the rest are all good teams. Any of them could win 11 or 12 games. But I'll take the team with Brady and Belichick till proven otherwise. Weaknesses and all.

7. New York Jets: As I said, the Jets were lucky to make the playoffs last year. Rex Ryan even proclaimed them eliminated at one point. The coach likes to say -- among many other things -- that they were one win away from the Super Bowl. They were also one loss away from 8-8 and no playoffs. A 9-7 team that did well in the playoffs is a solid pick to take the next step. The Jets have more skill on offense with Edwards, Holmes, and  LT. On defense, now that Revis is signed, the Jets are one of the best. I just remember how they played below their abilities a lot last year. That would be coaching.

8. Dallas Cowboys: Speaking of coaching... We come to the Cowboys and Wade Phillips. Dallas has a very good team. Romo, Whitten, Miles Austin, DeMarcus Ware, Mike Jenkins. The 'Boys have been a contender almost every year under Phillips. Last year they ended a 13-year playoff victory drought. That was a big step. I think it would take Bum's son another 13 years to win two playoff games in the same season.

9: San Francisco 49ers: Mike Singletary is the anti-Phillips. He doesn't have a lengthy coaching pedigree. He's as intense as Philips is oval. The Niners are my dark horse NFC pick. They could be playing in the NFC title game. For that to happen young QB Alex Smith needs to take the next step. He has lots of help on the offensive side of the ball. That should make it easier for him. The D is questionable against the pass. But like Singletary the player, the Niners will be slugging till the final gun every Sunday,

10. Pittsburgh Steelers: Peter King picks the Steelers to win the Super Bowl. The best part is his lead is pretty much admitting the everyone is going to think he is crazy. But then, unfortunately for those of us that don't want to see the Black and Gold win another title, he makes a pretty convincing case. Peter King is the Gammons of football. But I'm still not sold on Mike Tomlin (coaching -- again). He has a ring. He earned it. But it was a team built by the great Bill Cowher. With the Big Ben suspension, loss of Santonio Holmes, and a very tough division, it will be an impressive accomplishment -- and prediction -- if the Steelers do win it all.

11. Kansas City Chiefs: Patriots West. The Chiefs, always my favorite NFL team that's not the Pats, are my pick for surprise team. I think they have enough to take the AFC West away from the Chargers. Scott Pioli is going to have success at some point in KC. It starts this year. Matt Cassell  starts his second season in the best uniforms in the league. Cassell has a true running game this year with Thomas Jones and second-year man Jamaal Charles. Tennessee safety Eric Berry is an impact rookie that fits the Pioli mold. He joins Mike Vrabel, Brandon Flowers, and Glenn Dorsey on what should be an improved D. Oh, and the Chiefs now have Charlie Weiss and Romeo Crennel as their coordinators.

12. San Diego Chargers: Norv Turner. You see why I have the Pats at six? The Chargers are another very good team with an anchor for a coach. Like Phillips, Turner is actually a good coach. Just not when the playoffs start. But Phillip Rivers is a gunslinger and the defense is still scary. The Chargers will win their division if the Chiefs aren't the surprise team I think they are. Either way San Diego will get to the playoffs. But not much further.

13. Cincinnati Bengals: Cincy swept its AFC North foes 6-0 last season. That's not happening again. Not because the Bengals are worse, but because the Ravens and Steelers won't allow it. The story in Cincy is T.O. joining Ochocinco. This is either going to be an explosive combination with Carson Palmer or a total meltdown. T.O.'s track record speaks for itself.

14. Houston Texans: If Houston wasn't in Indy's division these past few years they'd have had a lot more success. But they are in the AFC South. Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Houston have taken turns giving the Colts a challenge. This year it's the Texans' turn. If QB Matt Schaub can play an entire season again then Houston has a good shot at being a playoff team because that would mean a full year of him throwing to Andre Johnson again. If young runner Arian Foster can build on the promise he showed last year then the Texans could move up.

15. Atlanta Falcons: Another team with a very good young QB. Former BC Eagle Matt Ryan has the look of a leader and can be expected to take a big step forward in his third season. Kevin Turner is the hammer that many teams are missing. When Turner injured his ankle last season the Falcons did a late season swoon. A healthy Turner is expected to return to his punishing ways. The Falcons added CB Dunta Robinson to an improving D.

16. Tennessee Titans: Jeff Fisher is a coach who can get his team to play above its potential. Two years ago the Titans were 13-3 but were shocked at home in the divisional round. Last year the team stumbled to a just as shocking 0-6 start. Then Fisher put QB Vince Young back behind center and the team turned it around to go 8-2 the rest of the way. Chris Johnson is the best back in football. The D is still a force. The Titans are one of many teams who could win anywhere between 8 and 12 games. I think Young still has a ways to go for the team to hit the high end of that number.

17. Miami Dolphins: The Wildcats are no more. Miami made it to the playoffs two seasons ago behind its sometimes effective, always entertaining attack style. Last year injuries took their toll. The players are still there. Ronnie Brown. Ricky Williams. But Chad Henne is now the QB and that is not a promising thing as far as the numbers go. He had 12 touchdowns and 14 picks last year. He was not clutch. Brandon Marshall has looked like a beast in preseason so that should make Henne's numbers better. Miami should get back into the playoff hunt and will be waiting if either the Pats or Jets falter.

18. Philadelphia Eagles: How does Andy Reid do it? Players come and go on the Philly roster and yet the team is in the playoffs year after year. This will be his biggest test ever because the one common denominator of all those teams was Donovan McNabb. The veteran QB has moved on to DC and Reid is putting his streak of success in the hands of Kevin Kolb. The consensus is that Kolb can do the job. He has explosive WR DeSean Jackson. Philly had the third most sacks in the league last year. The fact that they are not in the top 15 shows just how deep and balanced the NFL is.

19. Chicago Bears: Even Da Bears are a fun team now that Jay Cutler is at the QB position. Coach Lovie Smith is a survivor. Chicago has been mediocre since losing in the '06 Super Bowl but he is still calling the shots -- if not any plays. Offensive coordinator Mike Martz and Cutler need to really click this year for the Bears to get into the playoffs. The defense has been slowly fading these past few years, but the addition of primo free agent Julius Peppers should help with that.

20. New York Giants: The Giants started off strong last year, looking like they would build on their 13-3 season the year before. But their 5-0 record quickly dissolved in a slew of injuries on defense and an ineffective offense. The team missed the playoffs for the first time in four years and longtime coach Tom Coughlin looked sick most of the way. The team added safety Antrel Rolle and rookie linebacker Phillip Dillard out of Nebraska. Coughlin hopes they can help one of the worst pass defenses in the league.

21. Detroit Lions: Yes, the Lions almost broke the top 20! Party in Motown. Now that the Saints have won a Super Bowl, Lions fans own the position of most hopeless. The Lions haven't been good in a long, long time. They are much like the mid '90s Patriots. That team was the league's punchline. Then Parcells and Bledsoe changed that. QB Matthew Stafford might be Detroit's Bledsoe. He has a great target in Calvin Johnson. The defense has been remade with the additions of free agents Kyle Vanden Bosch and Corey Williams and rookie Ndamukong Suh of Nebraska. Have hope Lions' fans.

22. Denver Broncos: Denver was the hot story of the first half of last season, running out to a 6-0 start under first-year coach Josh McDaniels. Then the team collapsed. McDaniels did not show the he has what it takes to help right a team that is floundering. That is what separates the best coaches from the rest of the field. He'll get another test this year after trading away receivers Marshall and Tony Scheffler. RB Knowshon Moreno is the key to Denver's success. If he flounders then the Broncos will again.

23. Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jags are a puzzling team. They have a great running back in Maurice Jones-Drew and a great receiver in Mike Sims-Walker,. But unfortunately their QB only has two names and it's David Gerrard. He hasn't been able to become the effective passer the team needs. As long as Jack Del Rio is the coach the Jags will play hard every week, If they don't play well enough Del Rio's time in Jacksonville could come to an end.

24. Washington Redskins: The Skins are one of the most interesting teams heading into the 2010 season. Two-time Super Bowl champ coach Mike Shanahan came out of his brief retirement to try to finally get Washington headed in the right direction. Shanahan went out and took Donovan McNabb away from division rival Philly. The key to success in the NFL is largely due to the coach and the QB. The Skins now have a leader at both spots. If they weren't in such a tough division they'd be a sure playoff contender.

25. Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals have won their division the last two years, but not impressively. Two years ago they then caught fire and went to the Super Bowl. Last year they were one-and-done. This year there won't be any late season magic coming from the desert. They've lost Kurt Warner to retirement and traded Anquan Boldin. That's a big chunk of their offense right there. Matt Leinert was finally supposed to get his chance to show what he can do. However, he not only lost his starting job to Derek Anderson, he didn't even make the team. Anderson will probably have as many downs as ups. As will the Cardinals.

26. St. Louis Rams: Sam Bradford was considered a bit of a long shot to win the starting QB job in his rookie year. That all changed after his performance against the Pats in the preseason. If Bradford is as good as he looked that day then St. Louis will be much improved. And if Stephen Jackson can stay healthy. Those are two big "ifs." The Rams finished 1-15 in coach Steve Spagnuolo's first year. It could be a long rebuilding process.

27. Carolina Panthers: John Fox is the NFC's Jack Del Rio. A good coach who may be on his last leg. Fox and the Panthers have been trying to recapture their success since making the Super Bowl in '03 but haven't come close. Jake Delhomme and his interceptions have moved to Cleveland, replaced by... well it doesn't really matter. Steve Smith has to stay healthy to give the team some balance on an offense lead by the two-headed running back monster of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. The defense lost three starters on the line, among them Julius Peppers. He'll be hard to replace.

28. Oakland Raiders: If this is indeed where the Raiders finish then the Patriots will have the fifth pick in the 2011 draft. A pick they got for Richard Seymour. That's a trade Red Auerbach and Harry Sinden would be proud of. There's a lot of talk about improvement on the other side of the Bay Bridge. Rookie LB Rolando McClain from Alabama should make an immediate impact. Jason Campbell is an upgrade at QB. But not enough of one. I can't wait to hear ... "With the fifth pick in the draft, the New England Patriots take ... "

29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Bucs may be the team I pay the least amount of attention to in the NFL. They have no players of value for fantasy football. They are overshadowed in the NFC South by the Saints and Falcons. They don't play a very exciting brand of football. At least not one worthy of a pirate ship in the stands. Tampa was last in the league against the rush last year and have Josh Freeman as their quarterback. Maybe I have them ranked too high.

30. Seattle Seahawks: Pete Carroll is back and as pumped and jacked as ever. Did he learn anything from his four years running down the Pats? Well, he didn't seem to learn much from his time as head coach as the Jets before coming to New England. But since leaving the Pats in the late '90s he returned USC to college football glory. The Seahawks don't really have a glory to return to. Carroll is the "great college coach/lousy pro coach" guy. He takes over a team lacking offensive talent. And defensive talent. They are going to need a lot of cheerleading.

31. Buffalo Bills: I don't know which is worse for Bills fans. The glory years of the '80s and '90s when the team made it to four Super Bowls only to lose them all painfully. Or the last ten years when the team has been mostly inept. Buffalo is restarting yet again after canning coach Dick Jauron and bringing in Chan Gailey. The Bills drafted Clemson running back CJ Spiller, which was a surprise since they already had a solid back in Fred Jackson. The two could make a formidable pair. The Bills have a great secondary but that's about it on defense.

32. Cleveland Browns: This is personal. As long as Eric Mangini is coaching the Browns I'll be rooting for them to own the league's cellar. The guy broke the sports code and snitched. Yes, taping another team's coaches was cheating. But snitching is worse. Do you think the Pats are the only team to have stolen other team's signals? They're not. They are just the only team that an opposing coach ratted on. I still don't know what new GM Mike Holmgren was thinking in keeping Mangini. Maybe he was thinking he'd like to take over the team in midseason. He's going to have to.