Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Taking stock

The Patriots came so close to entering the 2012 season as defending champs. So close. Now the question is can Bill Belichick make the moves to keep them atop the AFC during the final few years of Tom Brady's career and get them another shot at that fourth Lombardi. A question that is just as important is can Belichick continue to build a team that can compete for a title even after Gisele locks the hall of fame QB away forever in their California mansion.

As the free-agency free-for-all kicks off today -- and with the NFL draft a little more than a month away -- it's time to take a quick look at the roster and identify where the biggest needs are. There aren't many glaring weaknesses, but there is always room for improvement.

OFFENSE
Quarterback: Brady is still playing at an MVP level as he enters his mid-30s. That's why it is so surprising when he doesn't make the big pass to win the big game. He had the ball late in the AFC title game and went three-and-out. He had the ball with a chance to wrap up the Super Bowl and missed a wide-open Welker. You could see that he couldn't believe he didn't get it done as much as I couldn't. There's still no other quarterback that I would want. Brian Hoyer and young Ryan Mallett are just fine as backups. Free agency/draft need: LOW.

Wide receiver: There's no other wide receiver I would want over Wes Welker either. 122 catches. All of them clutch. He took all the blame for a drop that was mostly Brady's fault. He's a class act. And a leader. Veteran Deion Branch should be back. He is a solid third or fourth wideout. Problem is that he was often the number two guy. Chad Johnsoncinco will have a full training camp to show that he can no longer play in the NFL. It shouldn't take long. Young guys Slater and Edelman are not going to scare anyone. The thing that made the wideout corp look better last year than it really was was the play of Aaron Hernandez. He may be listed as a tight end, but he was often the second best wide receiver on the field. Free agency/draft need: HIGH.

Tight end: One word: Gronk. Rob Gronkowski had the best year statistically ever for a tight end. The only thing that could -- and did -- slow him down was injury. Gronk had his surgery and should be back to catching TDs and dancing come the start of camp. Hernandez gives Brady two young, talented targets to throw to. It's a heck of a combination that should make the last few years of Brady's career enjoyable. The Pats are pretty set at tight end for years to come, but that never stops Belichick from drafting another one. Free agency/draft need: LOW.

Running back: There's no stud in the group, but the thinking seems to be that since the Pats are a passing team they don't really need one. They have gone 27-5 the last two years with that philosophy so it's hard to argue that. BenJarvus, Woody, and second-year guys Ridley and Vereen are a solid group who know how to get that extra yard and take care of the ball. Ridley showed he could break some big runs. If he can build on that he could end up becoming the lead back, especially if Bennie leaves as a free agent. The Pats finally added a fullback -- my favorite position -- in Lousaka Polite, but they didn't really use him. Football historian Belichick should show more respect to the fullback's role. I'd be surprised if the Pats added another running back unless one slid to them in the draft. Oh, and I look forward to Kevin Faulk's retirement ceremony. Free agency/draft need: MEDIUM.

Offensive line: Is the Pats line overrated? Maybe a bit. Brady was sacked 32 times this year, which put the Pats line at ninth best at protecting their quarterback. But as long as Dante Scarnecchia is coaching 'em up, the offensive line will be solid. Matt Light, who was on the verge of extinction, found the fountain of youth and had a great season. But can he do that again? Logan Mankins continues to be a guy who has great games followed by not-so-great games. Not really worthy of all the holdout noise he made and the giant contract that he got. But I think his best few years are right ahead of him. Dan Koppen -- one of the best centers in the game -- might not be back which would not make me happy. Veteran Brian Waters was one of the best free agent signings last year and should be back for more. Youngsters Vollmer, Solder, and Cannon give the Pats a bright future on the line. Dan Connolly and Ryan Wendell provide depth. Among the drafting rules in the NFL ... when in doubt, it's always worth grabbing another O lineman. Free agency/draft need: MEDIUM.

DEFENSE
Defensive line: It all starts with Big Vince. Wilfork signed a huge contract two years ago and has played his best two seasons of his hall of fame career. Not many pro athletes do that. He's the leader that has kept a young, evolving -- sometimes devolving -- defense together. The question, as it was last year when the Pats brought about 25 D lineman to camp, is who will line up on either side of him. Free agent Andre Carter filled one of those spots better than anyone imagined till he went down late in the season. He says he wants to be back. Mark Anderson was also a pleasant surprise, getting stronger as the year went on. After that, there's not a lot to love. Oh, there's Kyle Love. And Shaun EllisGerard WarrenBrandon Deaderick. All had their moments, but as a whole the line once again failed to get any consistent pressure on the quarterback. The Pats still need a pass rusher. Free agency/draft need: HIGH.

Linebacker: I love this group. If they can stay healthy (the proverbial BIG IF), this young group could grow into one of the best in the league by year's end. Jerod MayoBrandon SpikesRob Ninkovich. Mayo and Spikes both were injured at times last year but with both of them on the field, the defense played its best football in the playoffs. Mayo -- when on his game -- is a beast. Spikes's pick in the AFC title game was a huge moment for him. Ninkovich has the playmaking knack of a Bruschi or a Vrabel. However, there's not a lot of depth behind them. GuytonFletcher, and White are all replaceable parts. You always need more linebackers. Free agency/draft need: HIGH.

Safety: Now we get to the real problem areas. The defensive backfield. It got so bad that wide receivers Julian Edelman and Matthew Slater took some snaps on the defensive side of the ball. And they were actually better than many of the real defensive backs. Among the group of safeties and cornerbacks there is one great player. Patrick Chung. Check that, he's a really great player. But he can't cover and tackle everyone, although at times last year it felt like he did. James Ihedigbo, a Jets castoff, struggled early but played solid as the playoffs neared. He would make a solid third safety. I'm not going to even mention the other safeties that are still on the roster or passed through during the year. Not going to waste the bold ink on them. The Pats need to get Chung some help at safety. Lots of help. Free agency/draft need: HIGH.

Cornerback: And lots of help at cornerback would be good too. Rookie sensation Devin McCourty took a huge step back in his second year. So far back that he was moved to safety. I kept the faith in him all year so I'm not giving up on him now. I still rank him as a solid NFL defensive back. Kyle Arrington had seven picks last year, among the league leaders. But many of those were of the "ball bounced right into his arms" variety. But he still caught them. That's something. Rookie Ras-I Dowling missed the year with an injury. Will he be the next Wheatley/Wilhite and never play? Like safety, I'm not even mentioning the backup guys. They should be moving on. Except Edelman and Slater. They can stay. They just shouldn't be playing defensive back anymore. Free agency/draft need: SKY HIGH.

SPECIAL TEAMS
The Pats are set at kicker for years to come with Gosty and Zoltan. They've got the legs. Free agency/draft need: LOW.


Guys that can catch the ball. Guys that can keep old man Brady off his back. Guys that can stop other guys from catching the ball. And guys that can put the other team's quarterback on his back. Those are the priorities. Now we'll see what coach/GM/concessions manager Bill Belichick can do about it.


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