Second (round) thoughts

Time to test my prognosticating skills again. Last week the only winner I picked was the Jets. 1-3 is not going to cut it in Vegas. Unless the money from that one win was on longshot Seattle in their upset of the Saints. It wasn't.

The second-round games in the AFC are two great division rivalries. The Pats against the Jets and the Steelers against the Ravens. That's playoff football at its best. Over in the NFC, with the defending champs gone, it's the Bears hosting the Seahawks and the Falcons taking on the visiting Packers. Two interesting games. Assuming the Seahawks can play like they did last week and the weather isn't a big factor, these should be tight games with a good amount of scoring. The offenses are that good.

AFC

Baltimore (13-4) at Pittsburgh (12-4): We are all trying to get away from violent imagery following the horrible events in the alien nation of Arizona. But this game is going to be a bloodbath. Literally. At least it was when the two teams met in early December. The Ravens D broke Roethlisberger's nose in the first quarter and the big guy spent the rest of the game shoving it back into place and leading his team to victory. The winner of this game will be as bruised and bloodied as the loser. Pittsburgh has the #1 defense, the Ravens #3. And yet I expect both the offenses to make some big plays. Flacco and the Ravens offense had a great second half against KC. But this will be different. The Steelers D should be able to both keep RB Ray Rice in check and fill the lanes on Flacco. I expect Polamalu and Pittsburgh to win the turnover battle and the game. Steelers 23, Ravens 20.

NY Jets (12-5)  at New England (14-2): As Rex Ryan calls it... Round 3. The last time these two teams met was also in December. But unlike the Ravens-Steelers game it wasn't a bloodbath. It was a bludgeoning. The Pats put a 45-3 beating on Mt. Ryan and he has spent the whole week talking about making sure that doesn't happen again. Well, then he's going to have to figure out a way to stop Brady, Welker, Branch, Gronk, Woody, BenJarvis, and Hernandez. All of them. That's a tall task for a team that is still without defensive leader Jim Leonard. He went out three days before the December game and the Jets had no time to adjust. Now they have. It should make a difference. But not enough of a difference. The Pats young defense will be the key. They come into the playoffs with much more confidence than last year, having won many huge games. If they play their game, they should be able to add another one to the list. Patriots 30, Jets 20.

NFC

Green Bay (11-5) at Atlanta (13-3): This should be a great game. Saturday's schedule is Pack-Falcons and Steelers-Ravens. What a day of football. The Pack are like the Giants of 2007. We all remember them. Green Bay has a nasty pass rush and an offense that can put up just enough points to win. They did it against Philly. They could do it against Atlanta. Problem with the Pack is they make too many mistakes. Penalties. Turnovers. They often beat themselves. The Falcons, led by Matt Ryan, are almost impossible to defeat at home unless you play a perfect game. That's not the Pack's strong suit. The biggest question for the Falcons is are they ready to take the next step? They are in a similar position that the Saints were last year. New Orleans had been on the verge of making a Super Bowl run for a few years before finally breaking through. Atlanta looks ready to break through this year. Falcons 27, Packers 24.

Seattle (8-9) at Chicago (11-5): So did the Seahawks catch a break by avoiding the top-seeded Falcons? I'm not so sure. Beating the high-powered Falcons would have been a huge task. But at least the game would have been indoors on a fast track. That suits Seattle. There's a chance that Soldier Field will be cold and snowy on Sunday. That favors Da Bears. This is actually a tough game to call. I'm not a Bears believer. Jay Cutler is the kind of QB who you can almost count on to make a huge mistake. As is coach Lovie Smith. The Bears offense made many big mistakes at home against the Jets in Week 16 but the defense played well enough to overcome them. Julius Peppers and the Chicago D will not get shredded like New Orleans. Matt Hasselback will be under pressure all day. Marshawn Lynch won't be stiff-arming Bear defenders to the ground. The Seahawks are the true wild card in these playoffs. The have to win this week just to get to .500 for the season. I don't think the Bears defense will let that happen. If Pete Carroll takes this team to the NFC title game... my faith in everything will be shaken. Bears 20, Seahawks 10.

Well, that didn't take long

I had barely shaken the sleep out of my brain this Monday when I read this quote from Rex Ryan on ESPN.com : "This is about Bill Belichick vs. Rex Ryan. There's no question, it's personal. It's about him against myself. That's what it's going to come down to."

The trash talk has begun. And it's only Monday.

Mt. Ryan finished his Grand Slam breakfast and took to the podium for his morning press conference. (Here's the complete video on nyjets.com. He starts talking about the Pats at about the 1:30 mark.) If it was Belichick (or any other coach) you'd hear lots of the following: "We know we are facing a tough challenge this week. They are a very good team. We are going to have to be at our best. So on and so on."

Not Rex. That's not his way.

"I recognize (Belichick's) the best. I'm just trying to be the best on Sunday, and I plan on being the best coach on Sunday. ... That's what it is. I recognize my level has to come up. He's going to get my best shot. He's going to get everything I have on Sunday. If he slips at all, we're gonna beat him."

This is going to be a fun week.

Nothing Ryan said was a shot at Belichick. He called him a Hall of Famer and probably the best coach the game has ever seen. Correct on both points. He was simply saying he got out-coached in the Monday night game in December and knows that can't happen again or his team will get crushed again. Correct on both points.

But why say it at all? Was it, as some writers have suggested, a clever ploy to take the pressure off his players and put it on his shoulders? I doubt it. The foot doctor likes to talk. That's his thing. It seems he likes to talk more than he likes to coach. He likes to put on a show. A show that is all just for show. Take the time he buried the game ball after that Monday night loss to the Pats. He gathered the team around on the practice field in Jersey and made a speech about burying the ball and putting the loss behind them. Great show. The Jets lost at home the next week against the not-so-tough Dolphins. So much for the show.

This is a must win game for Rex Ryan. He knows it. You can only shoot your mouth off so long before you have to back it with results. He's 3-1 in the playoffs with the Jets. Pretty darn good. None of that matters if his team loses Sunday.

Ryan closed his Belichick comments by saying: "I told Belichick after the game, 'We'll see you in Round 3.' He just looked at me." I can only imagine what Belichick was thinking at that moment. Maybe it was "Well Rex, because we just kicked your butt, if there is a Round 3 it will be right here at Gillette. Where we very rarely lose."

I enjoy listening to Ryan babble on. It's a good show. But I'm glad he isn't the coach of the team that I root for. Although I wouldn't mind a little input from him on the tailgate menu for Round 3.

With the 17th pick in the draft...

With all the excitement of the playoffs I completely forgot to check on where the Raiders finished in the draft order. A quick check of NFL.com shows they own pick #17. Check that. The New England Patriots own pick #17.

The Raiders sent the pick to the Pats before last season for Pro Bowler Richard Seymour. The veteran had fallen out of favor with the coaches. Not sure why. He was a good player although I always felt he was a little overrated. Either way, he was gone. And the Pats had the Raiders' top pick in the 2011 draft two years later. When the trade was made the Raiders were a mess. The prospects of the pick being in the top 10 seemed good.

It didn't quite work out that way. The Raiders, behind coach Tom Cable, were expected to win four or five games. The silver and black got off to a 1-3 start and the Pats' pick seemed in good hands with Cable. But then something strange started happening. The Raiders started winning. at one point winning three in a row. It was very annoying to watch, kind of like the stock market. The Raiders finished the season a respectable and surprising 8-8. As a reward Raider patriarch Al Davis fired Cable. Maybe he was worried that the Patriots would no longer trade with him because they were mad that the pick wasn't in the top 10. Don't worry Al. Belichick will still take your calls offering draft picks and star wide receivers any time.

According to NFL draft guru Mel "The Hair" Kyper, if the Pats want to go offense with the 17th pick they might have a shot at two Alabama players: running back Mark Ingram or wide receiver Julio Jones. On the defensive side, players like D linemen Adrian Clayborn of Iowa or Cameron Heyward of Ohio St. Of course that all depends on Belichick actually using the pick. Which is a 50-50 deal at best.

When the Pats go on the clock with the 17th pick, they will have six of the next 80 selections. If they hit on half of those, added to the great drafts of the last two years, the team will be stocked for seasons to come.

And if the Pats can find a guy even half as good as the guy in the video below... well that will be a hell of a player.

New York, New York

You just knew it had to be the Jets. The teams have split their four games since Mt. Ryan took over Gang Green in '09. The rivalry has been boiling at high for a good decade now. Time to boil over. A week's worth of trash talk from Mr. Foot Fetish should take care of that.

The Jets did what I thought they would do, but hoped they wouldn't. They went into Indy and beat Peyton Manning. Barely. With a walk-off kick. It was a great playoff game. And another great road playoff win by Ryan's Jets. Last year they won at Cincy and San Diego before losing to the Colts. Last night they got that one corrected. Now they come to Foxborough. The site of the Monday Night Massacre. If there's a team more motivated than last year's Ravens to come into Gillette and knock off the Patriots, it's this Jets team. Sunday starting at 4:30 they will get their chance.

PATS-JETS: Football holy war.

The rivalries with the Colts, Steelers, and Ravens are intense. Especially the Colts. Patriots vs. Jets is more than just a rivalry. It's the NFL's Hatfields and McCoys. As Tom Brady so concisely put it earlier this year: I hate the Jets. I wrote last week about what would have to happen in the playoffs to make this a successful season for the Pats. Everything other than losing to the Jets would be a success in my mind. Losing to the Jets at home in the playoffs... eh, I don't want to think about that.

The two teams have played 103 games in their history and have split them 51-51-1. But the Patriots have always gotten the better of the Jets when it really counts. The Pats have won both playoff games. The first in 1985 when the team started its amazing run to the Super Bowl with a 26-14 win in the old Meadowlands. I remember watching the game over my brother Richard's house. The place was packed. The Pats made lots of big plays and we spent the afternoon recreating them in the backyard in a touch football game. In 2006 the two teams met for the second time in the playoffs. Belichick vs. Mangini. A real grudge match. It was all Patriots, 37-16. Some more touch football followed that win -- this time in Gillette's parking lot. The Patriots didn't win the Super Bowl in either of those years. But they didn't lose to the Jets. That made it a good season.

This Sunday's second round matchup is the biggest battle this football war has seen. And it has a perfect villain. Mr. Twinkle Toes. The Jets' coach has been a great addition to the story. From the moment he arrived saying he wasn't kissing Belichick's rings, he has brought a swagger that had eluded the Jets for many years. He sure talks the talk. In fact, Ryan got a head start last week by taking a few shots at Tom Brady while praising Manning. He and Belichick couldn't be more different. It makes for great theater.

The Jets came into the big Monday night clash in December talking tough (see video above). Both teams were 9-2. The Pats put a beating on NY and have not lost since. The Jets were stumbling till yesterday. It's been a great season for Pats fans. Now the fun really starts.

I can already see the NY Post headline if the Pats send Ryan and the Jets home losers... Agony of da feet!

Tourney time

It's the most wonderful time of the year. I'm not talking about that joyous week after all the stress and obligations and annoyances from the holidays have finally passed. I'm talking the NFL playoffs. The bye-week Patriots will be sitting comfortably on their couches along with the rest of us watching what should be some very entertaining and close battles.

I haven't done the research -- because that's not what I do here -- but this may be the first time in NFL history that all four road teams (the wild cards) either have the same or better record than the four division winners. How will that effect the results? Who knows. Here are my largely uneducated picks for Wild Card weekend:

AFC

NY Jets (11-5) at Indianapolis (10-6): I could go with my heart and say Colts 45, Jets 3. But my head says Mt. Ryan and the Jets are the slightly better team. Neither has looked that impressive down the stretch but the Jets have more healthy weapons on offense and -- despite the loss of safety Jim Leonard -- the defense should be strong in the playoffs. The Colts are saying they plan on trying to match the Jets run for run with a healthy Joe Addai. Right. Manning will be throwing the ball all over the place. The two teams met in the AFC title game last year and the Jets squandered a 17-7 lead. This time they hold on. Jets 26, Colts 23.

Baltimore (12-4) at Kansas City (10-6): This is the game I'm most interested in watching. I predicted the Chiefs would capture the AFC West crown and they did. But it would have been more impressive of they hadn't lost to the Raiders in the season finale. But they did. This is the classic matchup of the playoff veteran (Ravens) vs. the playoff rookie (Chiefs). The veteran almost always wins. But Arrowhead will be red and rockin'. It will be fun to watch. I think Matt Cassell and the Chiefs channel some Patriot magic and shut down -- and shut up -- Ray Lewis and the Ravens. Chiefs 20, Ravens 13.

NFC

New Orleans (11-5) at Seattle (7-9): You read that right. 7-9. The Seahawks are the first team to make the playoffs with a losing record. And they did it in style, dropping seven of their last 10 games. But Pete Carroll and his squad are P'd and J'd to be in the playoffs and are -- incredibly -- at home. Like KC, Seattle is a very tough place to play. But the defending champs know how to win on the road. And they should win easily. The Saints have looked shaky at times, but this is the playoffs. They are the champs. The only question should be is it a high or low scoring game? That will all depend on the weather. The forecast looks decent -- for the Northwest. Saints 45, Seahawks 27.


Green Bay (10-6) at Philadephia (10-6): Michael Vick and the Eagles were all the rage a few weeks ago when they made that improbably rally against the Giants. That was a couple of weeks ago. Since then Mad Dog Vick has looked mortal-ish. As have the Eagles. But a team with Vick, DeSean, and LeSean are a potent offensive force. The Eagles will need all three against a ferocious Packers' D. Aaron Rodgers brings his own passing attack. These two teams are about as evenly matched as you can get. Tie goes to the home team. Eagles 21, Packers 20.

Final review

What was a great NFL regular season came to a curious end this past Sunday. The Seahawks and Rams closed out the day with a winner-take-all NFC West clash. Normally you would think that would be a great game. However, the Rams were 7-8 and the Pete Carroll-led Seahawks were 6-9. Yes, 6-9 and playing for a division title. Which Seattle won in a really poor exhibition of football. The Seahawks may be one of the 12 teams in the playoffs, but they are not close to one of the 12 best teams. However, the other 11 that did make the playoffs are all very good teams. As usual, the tournament is wide open.

1. New England Patriots (14-2): I optimistically thought the Pats would be 13-3. They were really only a handful of big-plays-not-made away from a much better year last year. I just figured that a Belichick-coached team would start to make more plays. But not this many. From Woodhead to Gronk, McCourty to Chung, young players have stepped up week after week to make life that much easier for Brady and Wilfork. Like every playoff team, the Pats have issues. But to this point they have been able to overcome them.

2. Atlanta Falcons (13-3): The NFC's version of the Patriots? Pretty much. The Falcons' D is -- statistically at least -- a little better than New England's but the Pats offense is a little better. The Falcons have a balanced attack. Matt Ryan, Roddy White, and Michael Turner are as good a trio as there is. Atlanta is playoff ready, having played in and won a tough division with both New Orleans and Tampa. Like the Pats, the Falcons rarely beat themselves. The Saints are the defending champs, but Atlanta has to be the NFC favorite.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4): Tom Brady is clearly the MVP of the league. Most people put Michael Vick right behind him. Not me. I'd put Troy Polamalu and his curls in that spot. The Steelers are a good team without him (which for Steeler fans is probably too often). They are a great team with him. He is a difference maker. It seemed that every time I watched a Pittsburgh game he would be making a game-winning play. On the other side of the ball, Big Ben is as tough as they come and a proven champ. I'm just glad if the Pats and Steelers meet that it will be in Foxborough.

4. New Orleans Saints (11-5): The defending champs sure took some knocks this year. Losses to Cleveland and Arizona were partly due to injuries and partly due to just how difficult it is to repeat. Each year that goes by makes me appreciate more the back-to-back 14-2 seasons the Pats put up. Like the Patriots, New Orleans has a great coach and QB. Unlike the Pats, the Saints D has played well this year. It looked like they were getting healthy again, only to lose a few key players in the season finale. Can the Saints get back to the Super Bowl? I wouldn't bet against them.

5. Baltimore Ravens (12-4): Fortunately the Ravens won't be coming to Gillette in the first round. They are headed west to play KC. I would think they would be favored. They are that good. Baltimore plays a perfect style for the playoffs. Tough, hard-nosed on offense and defense. Ray Lewis will be screaming while Ed Reed makes plays. I'll be rooting for the Chiefs to get the Ravens out of the playoffs. If it doesn't happen, Baltimore is capable of going into Pittsburgh or New England (or both) and winning.

6. Chicago Bears (11-5): I'm just not a Bears believer. The coach often looks clueless. The QB often looks brainless. Yet they earned a bye. Reason? Julius Peppers and the defense. Chicago finished fourth in the league in points allowed. With Peppers causing havoc on the line, the Bears were second in the league against the run. Surprisingly, with Peppers also leading a solid pass rush, they were only 20th against the pass. The Bears might make it to the NFL title game, but if it is in Atlanta I think their season ends there. Although I would love them to get to the Super Bowl against the Patriots. '85 avenged!

7. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6): Philly was riding high after their comeback against the Giants in Week 15. Sitting at 10-4, the Eagles had a good shot at a bye. They proceeded to lose their last two games, to Minnesota and Dallas. Two teams out of the playoff race. So much for being the team to beat. Michael Vick is always dangerous. He can win a game by himself. The Eagles will be tough to beat at home in the Wild Card round. After that I'm not so sure.

8. New York Jets (11-5): Huh. I thought Rex Ryan had said something at the start of the season about the Jets finishing with the best record in the league. Maybe I was mistaken. Gang Green hasn't recovered from the Monday night beating at Gillette. Actually, they haven't recovered from the loss of safety and defensive captain Jim Leonard. An old school guy like that is hard to replace. QB Sanchez showed last year that he can handle the playoff pressure. That is key. Playing on the road is not a problem for the Jets. That makes them very dangerous.

9. Indianapolis Colts (10-6): Peyton Manning makes it to the tourney again. This one wasn't easy. Even though the Colts were in the Super Bowl last year, they won a lot of games in miraculous fashion to get there. They were good. And they were lucky. They haven't been as lucky this year. Nor as good. The thinking is that any team with #18 at QB will be tough to beat. True. The Colts aren't as well coached as the Pats, Steelers, or Ravens and they won't have the comfort of their dome when it really counts. The Super Bowl-loser hangover has been a real killer.

10. Kansas City Chiefs (10-6): My favorite team other than the Pats (Len Dawson, Hank Stram, 65 Toss Power Trap) has gotten back on track thanks to several ex Pats. The Chiefs held off the overrated Chargers to win the AFC West and are tough to beat at home. They only lost to one playoff team all year (Indy). Problem is they only played one playoff team all year. Not the way to get playoff ready. But coaches Charlie Weiss and Romeo Crennel have lots of playoff experience. That should help an inexperienced Matt Cassell.

11. Green Bay Packers (10-6): The Pack may have underachieved more than any other playoff team. Then again, if you look at the key injuries the team had maybe they actually overachieved. Either way, they are a very dangerous 10-6 wild card team. Aaron Rodgers and the offense (even without a running game) can put up points in a hurry. But like division rival Chicago, the key to the Pack's success is the defense. Green Bay, led by linebackers Clay Matthews and A.J. Hawk, gave up only 15 points a game. If they can maintain that in the playoffs they should be in the NFC title game.

12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-6): The only non-playoff team on the list. Raheem Morris went 3-13 in his rookie year in '09. His team made huge strides this year. Without a lot of top shelf talent. That's the sign of a good coach. Mike Singletary should watch and learn. No-name players Josh Freeman (QB) and LeGarrette Blount (RB) gave the offense some life. The defense, led by Ronde Barber and Aqib Talib, was ninth in the league in points allowed. The Bucs are worthy of being a playoff team even if they won't be there.

Dishonorable mention: The entire NFC West. Come on. Not one of these teams could muster a winning record? How's that possible? I thought the Niners would take advantage of an easy division and win 11 games. They won 6. Then I thought the Cardinals -- division winners the last few years -- could step up. Five wins. That left the "rebuilding" Seahawks and Rams to stage an epic battle for the division. Seattle, at 7-9, took the division crown. Hey, somebody had to win it.

Why are we here?

WEEK 17
Patriots 38, Dolphins 7: Why am I here? That's what the Globe's Shaughnessy said I'd be asking myself as I stood with my friends in the parking lot of Gillette yesterday as a light rain fell on the top our tent.

A game that meant nothing in the standings for either team was deemed meaningless. So why not just stay home? The sun started breaking through the clouds as Shep took the chicken off the grill. The group next to us started up a roaring fire pit (somewhat uncomfortably close to their large propane tank) and rolled out a flatscreen TV on the back of their pickup. Someone was blasting Zeppelin in the distance.

WEEK 17: A happy home.

"Why are we here?" me, Shep, Matt, and Bergs all said laughing as we raised our drinks to what we hoped would be a great ending to a ridiculously fun regular season. There were so many reasons. The food, the drinks, the football talk, the scene, the friends ... oh, and the game. Why were we there? Easy. We're football fans and our team plays the game of football about as entertainingly as it can be played. As they did yesterday in the regular season finale to finish at 14-2, best in the AFC.

We got to our seats with cocktails in hand and quickly shed our rain layers. It was sweatshirt weather on January 2. A great treat considering a week ago the area was getting buried in almost two feet of snow. I put my jacket on my seat and thought that come the playoff game in two weeks I most likely would be adding layers instead of shedding them. At least I hoped so.

There was little doubt that many of the starters would play in the game. That's Belichick's way. But I was glad to hear Welker would not be one of them. In last year's final game -- also with nothing at stake -- he blew out his knee when he tried to avoid a tackle. It was a freak injury. One that he is still recovering from. Belichick wisely had him sit this one out (along with Branch and Hernandez). But Brady was playing.

I watched highlights of some of the meaningful games played yesterday and saw teams, that had to win, play some very sloppy, mediocre football. In contrast, the Pats, who could have taken the day off, came out looking as sharp as they had been all season. In the first five minutes players who have come up big all year combined to put the Pats up quickly. Rookie corner Devin McCourty -- Pro Bowler -- made a great pick at midfield and set Brady and the offense up. Woodhead took a direct snap and ran for 19 yards down to the Dolphin 21. Brady then hit Gronk -- another impact rookie -- for a 12-yard touchdown pass. The weather was great, the drinks were cold, and the Pats were on their game -- again. Why are we here?

Early in the second quarter -- with the Pats D on the field and the team ahead by two touchdowns -- Brady and his backup Brian Hoyer sat side-by-side on the bench going over some notes. Clearly Hoyer was coming in. "Brady's telling him he better not screw up," Matt said. "or Belichick will make him go back in." How right he was. Brady came off the field after a first-down play and Hoyer came in. Hoyer looked really bad on his first two passes and Brady put his helmet back on as the coach waved him back in. Belichick sent Hoyer -- and the whole team -- yet another message. Always be ready. Hoyer wasn't.

Brady went on to play the rest of the half and started the third quarter. When he came out of the game for good the Pats were ahead 31-0 and the soon-to-be league MVP finished the year with 36 touchdown passes and only four picks. Since the loss in Cleveland, Brady has played the best football of his career. It's fun to watch. BenJarvis broke 1,000 yards rushing. Julian Edelman made some big plays -- including a great punt return for a touchdown. Even Hoyer got a second chance and looked much better. It was a convincing way to head into the playoffs.

The victory completed the second straight 8-0 regular season at Gillette. We've been fortunate to enjoy some great seasons of tailgating since getting our tickets 17 years ago. But 2010 ranks at the top. Maybe that's because of the way the Pats were crushed at home in the playoffs last year. The team could have gone in either direction after that game. Even the most optimistic of people (me) didn't see it turning this far in the positive direction. But Belichick, Brady, and Wilfork (he's now as irreplaceable as the other two) led the way through great roads wins at Pittsburgh, Miami, San Diego, and Chicago and home wins against Minnesota, Baltimore, Indy, and the Jets. As we packed up the post-game tailgate, we started making plans for another home playoff game. Hopefully with a second one to follow.

"Why are we here?" we shouted as we got in our cars for the ride home.