Coach bags

The end of the NFL regular season brings with it two things ... the start of the playoffs with Wild Card weekend and the end of some careers with the coaching firing squad. The Monday after Week 17 is often littered with coaches canned for either one disastrous season or a string of bad ones. It's a reminder for Pats' fans just how lucky we are to have Bill Belichick.

There's usually two or three coaches fired on Monday morning, but yesterday there were seven coaches sent packing. A surprising number and a few surprising names on the list:

• Andy Reid, Eagles, after 14 seasons.
• Ken Whisenhunt, Cardinals, after 6 seasons.
• Chan Gailey, Bills, after 3 seasons.
• Lovie Smith, Bears, after 9 seasons.
• Pat Shurmur, Browns, after 2 seasons.
• Romeo Crennel, Chiefs, after just 1 season.
• Norv Turner, Chargers, after 6 seasons.

That's a lot of coaches. There were also a few GMs canned (like Tannenbaum of the Jets) but who really cares about GMs getting fired unless it's your team?

Looking at the list of coaches fired, it breaks down into two categories. The first category is guys who have been with their team for a long time and who have had some success but their teams were clearly heading in the wrong direction. The other category are guys who have only been in the job for a short time and were obviously bad choices when they were hired.

Let's take the second category first. Pat Shurmur was hired by the Browns two years ago billed as one of the games best young offensive minds. He played offensive line at Michigan State and he learned NFL coaching under Andy Reid for 10 years. Not a bad teacher. He moved to St. Louis to be offensive coordinator in 2009 and did that for two years before getting the Cleveland job. Two years as a coordinator is not nearly enough experience to become an NFL head coach unless you had done some head coaching in college. Shurmur had not. But the Browns gave him the job anyway. Which is fine. Why not take a chance on a young guy? Tennessee did that with Jeff Fisher in 1994 and he turned out to be a great coach. But if you are going to hire a guy like Shurmur, you have make a commitment to him for more than two years. Otherwise, why bother?  And that's why the Browns have been bad for years. Eric Mangini ... two years. Romeo Crennel ... three years. If you are only going to give a guy two or three years to get the team headed in the right direction then don't bother hiring him. It's just stupid.

Speaking of stupid... the Chiefs hiring of Crennel and the Bills hiring of Chan Gailey fit that description because they both had head coaching jobs before and had proven they were not head coaching material. Not even close. They are both good guys and great coordinators. But there should be restraining orders preventing them from getting any where near a head coaching job. And yet the Chiefs and the Bills gave them another shot. And not surprisingly, their teams underachieved. Especially the Bills. If Buffalo hires a real coach for next season, with the talent they have, they could win ten games. But since it's Ralph Wilson and the Bills there's a good chance they will mess it up.

My guess is the Bills will probably hire one of the other guys fired yesterday. I'm really hoping it's Norv Turner. It would be great to have Norv in the division. Don't get me wrong. I think Norv is actually a pretty good coach. But he's one of those good coaches whose teams always make crucial mistakes. Which I guess means he's not really a good coach. It's tricky. Same thing with Andy Reid. He's a very good coach. But you just know his team is going to blow it. Reid took Philly to four straight NFC title games, the first three times his team fell flat on its face. The fourth time the Eagles finally won only to lose the Super Bowl to the Patriots. Reid will get another job very quickly. He learned from Mike Holmgren. He's a winner. But it was time for a change after 14 years in Philly. I don't want to see him in Buffalo.

The two other guys fired, Lovie Smith and Ken Whisenhunt, were a bit of a surprise. Smith's Bears went 10-6. It's very rare when a coach gets fired after a winning season. But they were 7-1 halfway through the season and went 3-5 the rest of the way. The Bears were not as good as 7-1 and not as bad as 3-5. They were 10-6 and considering Jay "Goober" Cutler is their QB that's pretty good. Lovie took his team to two NFC title games and the Super Bowl in 2007. But the Bears have only made the playoffs once in the last six years. That will eventually get you fired no matter how nice a guy you are and how much your players love you.  It's the same with Whisenhunt. The Bill Cowher-trained coach got off to a great start with Arizona, taking the team to the Super Bowl in his third season (2009), But since then the Cards have gone 5-11, 8-8, and 5-11. They started off 4-0 this year, including a win at Gillette in Week 2, but they lost nine in a row after that. I think the Cards should have stuck with him another year because it looked like he was building something there with a tough young defense. But that's why teams like the Cards are usually not very good. They are not patient. So now they will be looking to start over.

There was one name not on the list of coaches canned yesterday. Rex Ryan. I'm pretty happy about that. For the second year in a row Ryan's team not only missed the playoffs, but the season ended with the locker room is complete disarray. A team always reflects its coach. And the mess that are the Jets is a mirror image of Skinny Rex. I can't wait to hear what he has to say about what happened this year. But I'll have to wait a while because he decided not to hold the NFL mandated end-of-the-season press conference and head to the Bahamas. That's right. Rex Ryan passed up an opportunity to talk to the media. I know. I can't believe it either. But don't worry. Talk he will. And at some point in his press conference he will be asked about next season and he will make some statement about catching the Patriots and winning the AFC East. That's what I love about Rex. He never learns. And I'm glad his name wasn't on the list.

Playoff picture

As they say on ESPN... "If the playoffs started today..."

In the AFC, the Pats would host their longtime rivals the Steelers and in the other game Peyton Manning and the Broncos would host his old team the Colts. In the NFC, the Bears would host the Seahawks in a battle of nasty defenses and the Packers would get another shot at the Giants, the team that has knocked them out of the playoffs a few times in the last several years.

That's a great Wild Card weekend. I wish the playoffs did start today.

Half full

The NFC was starting to look like the superior conference. Not so fast. The Steelers are back on the radar and the Broncos with Peyton Manning are now a formidable team. They join the Texans, Pats, and Ravens as the top five teams in the AFC. How do they stack up against the NFC's top five of the Giants, Bears, Falcons, Niners, and Packers? Pretty evenly. Who is the best among them all? Well, a very familiar team.

As always my rankings go to 12 because that's the number of playoff teams. It really doesn't matter who #13 is when the season is over.

1. New York Giants (6-2): It pains me to say it, but the Giants are the most complete, experienced, and dangerous team in the league this year. They are in a very good position to be the first repeat champ since the '03-'04 Pats. Little Manning is never out of a game and never looks worried. He has great receivers and a strong running game. And they have the best pass rush in the league. The Giants seem to do better when they are the underdog ... they might not get that chance this year.

2. Chicago Bears (6-1): It pains me to say it, but Lovie Smith might actually be a good coach. OK, it doesn't really pain me to say it. Lovie seems like a good guy. I can't root for the Bears to ever win another Super Bowl (see Pats-Bears 1986), but I could root for Lovie. But not Jay Cutler. That guy annoys me. But he looks a lot better now that he has Brandon Marshall to throw to. And they have a great runner in Forte. And a great defense. The Bears and Giants seem on a collision course for the NFC title game.

3. New England Patriots (5-3): I know. The Falcons are 7-0 and the Texans are 6-1. But they don't have Tom Brady. Who according to some in the Blabosphere is starting to lose it a bit. Maybe they should watch his five TDs in five drives against the Rams and see what they think. The Pats are the best offense in the league and they are doing it without Aaron Hernandez and a limping Gronk and Welker. Lloyd -- despite a few drops -- has been a great addition. And the running game when Bolden is healthy is one of the best. I know. The defense has big problems. If they can get safeties Chung and Gregory healthy I think the D will start to improve like it did last year.

4. Atlanta Falcons (7-0): The Falcons just have the smell of that team that goes 15-1 and loses at home in the Divisional Round to the Bears or the Giants. But that's a long ways off. Matt Ryan and the Falcons have been on the verge of taking the next step for the last few years. They have a well balanced offense and a good defense, although they are near the bottom against the run which is a problem come playoff time. The Falcons are the classic dome team that doesn't quite have the grit to win the big one. Not sure that has changed yet.

5. Houston Texans (6-1): The Texans -- after looking bad against Green Bay -- sure looked good against the Ravens last week. They should probably be ranked higher. But like the Falcons, I'm not totally convinced. But unlike the Falcons, they have no weaknesses. The Texans have the second-ranked offense behind the Patriots and are fifth in the league against the pass and fourth against the run. And they play in a pretty easy division. If Houston can come into Gillette in a month and beat the Pats then they'll have home field in the playoffs and be very tough to stop.

6. San Francisco 49ers (6-2): The best defense in the league. And the nastiest. If I were given $1,000 to bet on any team to win the Super Bowl I'd put it on San Fran. Their D is that good. And with Frank Gore they have the best rushing game in the league. A great defense and a great running game. Many a dynasty was built on that. The question is quarterback Alex Smith. Many a Super Bowl was won with lesser QBs. When a team like the Niners is (arguably) your sixth best team ... you have a hell of a league.

7. Denver Broncos (5-3): The Broncos have taken a step up in the last few weeks as Big Manning keeps getting better and better. And that will be a problem for the rest of the AFC come playoff time. Manning is making the young receivers on his team better each week. The Broncos should win the AFC West with ease since the Chargers have decided to get a head start in their yearly collapse and fold early. Denver's weakness is they are average in rushing and below average in stopping the run.

8. Baltimore Ravens (5-2): The Ravens are limping their way down the rankings. Ray Lewis is done for the season. Terrell Suggs is back but it may be too late. The Ravens -- built on defense -- are 24th in the league against the pass and 30th -- that's right, 30th -- against the run. That's not Raven football. And although the offense is good, it is not nearly good enough to carry the team like it is in New England or New York or Atlanta. The Ravens have a tough second half ahead of them.

9. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3): This is the point in the rankings where you can choose from about fifteen teams. I'm going with the proven commodity. Big Ben and the Steelers are getting older and are pretty banged up. But they just schooled RG3 and the Skins on how to play smash-mouth football. As the Ravens are getting more banged up, the Steelers are starting to get healthier. If they get Polamalu back they should win the AFC North and be a team nobody wants to play come January.

10. Green Bay Packers (5-3): It pains me to put them this low. The Pack should be 6-2 if it weren't for the blown call by the fake refs. But the Pack is 26th in the league in rushing. That puts too much pressure on Aaron Rodgers to carry the load. The defense has improved after last year's poor showing but it is still giving up a lot of points. The Pack has a very tough second-half schedule that will make it tough for them to pass the Bears. But they should be a wild card team.

11. Miami Dolphins (4-3): Of all the surprise decent teams in the league this year (Seattle, Arizona, Minnesota, Indy being the others), Miami is the one that is headed in the right direction. A huge win over the Jets puts them into wild card contention. Rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill may not be as good as Indy's Andrew Luck or Washington's RG3, but he has Reggie Bush on his side. And a very good defense that is third in the league against the run.

12. Minnesota Vikings (5-3): The Cardinals and Seahawks sure thought they were top 12 teams after beating the Pats. Look where they are now ... 4-4 and fading fast. The Vikes, on the other hand, are still in the hunt because they can do something the other two can't. Score points. Thanks to Adrian Peterson. Young QB Christian Ponder has good games and bad and the defense is only slightly better than average. And the Vikes didn't look too good against Tampa last week. But like I said ... they have Adrian Peterson.

Dishonorable mention: J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets. Skinny Rex's team has been hit hard by injuries, no doubt about it. But what team hasn't? Problem is the Jets didn't have much depth. At the start of the season Ryan proclaimed this the most talented team he's had in his four years in New York. It was pretty funny when he said it. At 3-5, it's really funny now. Teee-bow! Teee-bow! I can't wait for Thanksgiving night.

Second (round) thoughts

Time to test my prognosticating skills again. Last week the only winner I picked was the Jets. 1-3 is not going to cut it in Vegas. Unless the money from that one win was on longshot Seattle in their upset of the Saints. It wasn't.

The second-round games in the AFC are two great division rivalries. The Pats against the Jets and the Steelers against the Ravens. That's playoff football at its best. Over in the NFC, with the defending champs gone, it's the Bears hosting the Seahawks and the Falcons taking on the visiting Packers. Two interesting games. Assuming the Seahawks can play like they did last week and the weather isn't a big factor, these should be tight games with a good amount of scoring. The offenses are that good.

AFC

Baltimore (13-4) at Pittsburgh (12-4): We are all trying to get away from violent imagery following the horrible events in the alien nation of Arizona. But this game is going to be a bloodbath. Literally. At least it was when the two teams met in early December. The Ravens D broke Roethlisberger's nose in the first quarter and the big guy spent the rest of the game shoving it back into place and leading his team to victory. The winner of this game will be as bruised and bloodied as the loser. Pittsburgh has the #1 defense, the Ravens #3. And yet I expect both the offenses to make some big plays. Flacco and the Ravens offense had a great second half against KC. But this will be different. The Steelers D should be able to both keep RB Ray Rice in check and fill the lanes on Flacco. I expect Polamalu and Pittsburgh to win the turnover battle and the game. Steelers 23, Ravens 20.

NY Jets (12-5)  at New England (14-2): As Rex Ryan calls it... Round 3. The last time these two teams met was also in December. But unlike the Ravens-Steelers game it wasn't a bloodbath. It was a bludgeoning. The Pats put a 45-3 beating on Mt. Ryan and he has spent the whole week talking about making sure that doesn't happen again. Well, then he's going to have to figure out a way to stop Brady, Welker, Branch, Gronk, Woody, BenJarvis, and Hernandez. All of them. That's a tall task for a team that is still without defensive leader Jim Leonard. He went out three days before the December game and the Jets had no time to adjust. Now they have. It should make a difference. But not enough of a difference. The Pats young defense will be the key. They come into the playoffs with much more confidence than last year, having won many huge games. If they play their game, they should be able to add another one to the list. Patriots 30, Jets 20.

NFC

Green Bay (11-5) at Atlanta (13-3): This should be a great game. Saturday's schedule is Pack-Falcons and Steelers-Ravens. What a day of football. The Pack are like the Giants of 2007. We all remember them. Green Bay has a nasty pass rush and an offense that can put up just enough points to win. They did it against Philly. They could do it against Atlanta. Problem with the Pack is they make too many mistakes. Penalties. Turnovers. They often beat themselves. The Falcons, led by Matt Ryan, are almost impossible to defeat at home unless you play a perfect game. That's not the Pack's strong suit. The biggest question for the Falcons is are they ready to take the next step? They are in a similar position that the Saints were last year. New Orleans had been on the verge of making a Super Bowl run for a few years before finally breaking through. Atlanta looks ready to break through this year. Falcons 27, Packers 24.

Seattle (8-9) at Chicago (11-5): So did the Seahawks catch a break by avoiding the top-seeded Falcons? I'm not so sure. Beating the high-powered Falcons would have been a huge task. But at least the game would have been indoors on a fast track. That suits Seattle. There's a chance that Soldier Field will be cold and snowy on Sunday. That favors Da Bears. This is actually a tough game to call. I'm not a Bears believer. Jay Cutler is the kind of QB who you can almost count on to make a huge mistake. As is coach Lovie Smith. The Bears offense made many big mistakes at home against the Jets in Week 16 but the defense played well enough to overcome them. Julius Peppers and the Chicago D will not get shredded like New Orleans. Matt Hasselback will be under pressure all day. Marshawn Lynch won't be stiff-arming Bear defenders to the ground. The Seahawks are the true wild card in these playoffs. The have to win this week just to get to .500 for the season. I don't think the Bears defense will let that happen. If Pete Carroll takes this team to the NFC title game... my faith in everything will be shaken. Bears 20, Seahawks 10.

Let it snow. Let it snow. Let it snow.

WEEK 14
Is there any chance there will be a freak snowstorm in Dallas on Super Bowl Sunday? If so, and they decide to keep the roof open, the Patriots are going to be tough to beat. Of course that's getting ahead of things. Just a little.

WEEK 14: Winter wonderland.

The Pats' 36-7 stomping of the Bears in a driving Chicago blizzard combined with the Jets loss at home to Miami suddenly put the Pats in total control of their division and the all-important first-round bye. Just a week ago the Pats and Jets were both 9-2 and battling for the top of the AFC. Now the Pats sit at 11-2 while New York has stumbled to 9-4. Like the New England weather, things change quickly in the NFL.

I've been to many of the Pats memorable snow games. The Snow Bowl. The snowball game. Both playoff games against the Colts. But yesterday I was glad to be sitting on the couch in my parent's warm den, drinking beer and eating pizza with my nephew Steve. He too had been to one of the snow games of the past few years. He too was glad to be warm and dry and watching the snow on the television. It was a great show.

On the anniversary of the '82 Snow Plow game (yes, there are a lot of "snow" nicknames), the Pats plowed over the ferocious Bears defense with almost 500 yards of offense. I thought last year's game in the snow against Tennessee was a ridiculous offensive performance in ridiculous weather. Yesterday's was even better because it was against a defense that was allowing only 17 points per game in good weather. Tom Brady has completed his evolution from young star to veteran leader. He looks like Larry Bird in his prime. He's the best and he knows it. And he makes everyone on his team that much better. NFL Network might want to revise its list of top 100 players right now and move Brady up a few spots. Just a few.

I had started BenJarvis Green-Ellis on my fantasy team figuring in such brutal conditions that he would get the ball all day. (I benched Darren McFadden who put up 40 points. I won't be winning coach of the year in my league). So what did the Pats do? They came out in the shotgun. I should have known. BenJarvis and the running game was great, but it was Brady and the passing game that set the tone from start to finish. Again. Brady didn't spread the ball around quite as much this time. He mostly focused on Welker and Branch, with each catching eight passes. Those are two clutch receivers to have heading into the playoffs. Brady opened the game by leading the offense on scoring drives of 12 and 11 plays. By the time he hit Branch for a 59-yard touchdown on the last play of the half the game was over at 33-0.

Like the game against the Jets, the second half became a test of how mentally tough the defense has become. The answer is very tough. Even with rookie-of-the-year candidate Devin McCourty on the sideline with an injury (which I only knew because Steve read it on Yahoo, not because announcers Jim Nance or Phil Simms noticed he was missing), the young defense was stronger and faster than the Bears at every turn. The defense forced four turnovers, one of which was a fumble recovery that Gary Guyton took in for a touchdown. Guyton was filling in for suspended rookie Brandon Spikes. That's the kind of year it's been. A Patriot gets suspended and his replacement scores a touchdown.

That's how the team has survived injuries to key starters and a schedule that saw them playing -- and beating -- just about every playoff contender in the AFC.  Week after week different players have stepped up. Regardless of the opponent. Regardless of the weather.

Who will step up next week at home against Green Bay? That's just as important of a question as what will we prepare for our tailgate feast? It's the Packers. Cheese must be involved. Lots of it. But hopefully no snow. Till the playoffs that is.

Here's a great video on the '82 Snow Plow game. The fact that years later Don Shula still loses sleep over this makes me happy to no end.

PATRIOTS VS. DOLPHINS SNOW PLOW GAME

I've got a schedule to keep

The 2010 regular season schedule came out yesterday. It's gonna be a great year of tailgating. Before the team started winning championships, the day the schedule came out was a big one for me and Mark. We'd bring the Globe to our Quincy bar of choice (Cronin's, Nally's, the High Rise) and go over each game and decide if the Patriots had any chance of winning it. When Mark moved to NY we'd break it down over the phone. Before the 2001 season, any year we could predict a 9-7 wildcard finish was a year of optimism. As I've said before, things have sure changed.

Mark and I don't call each other when the schedule comes out anymore. After a decade of 16-0, 14-2, and 12-4 seasons I guess we don't feel the need to convince each other that there's hope. We know that we will return to doing that some day.

So, absent Mark's input, here's the week-by-week 2010 Patriots season as I see it. It's not going to be a cake walk to the playoffs, but I'm feeling positive.

WEEK 1 vs. Cincinnati
A good test to start. The Bengals were the surprise team in the AFC last year, sweeping both the Steelers and the Ravens to win the North. But they lost three out of their last five games and were one and done in the playoffs thanks to a lot of blown chances at home against the Jets. It's a home opener the Pats should win.

WEEK 2 @ NY Jets

The first of three straight divisional games. Seems the schedule makers don't want to wait long to see who really is the best team in the AFC East. A road win at NY would be a good way to shut up Mt. Ryan early. But that's a tall order against the best D in the league. You have to figure the Jets will take this one and then make sure you get even with them at home later.

WEEK 3 vs. Buffalo

A must-win home game. The Bills have dumped coach (and Belichick loyalist) Dick Jauron so we can no longer count on him gift wrapping two wins a year. That's too bad. The Bills almost upset the Pats in the opener last season. And they might be better this year. But I don't see new coach Chan Gailey having them that much improved by the third week.

WEEK 4 @ Miami

A Monday nighter against the Dolphins. It's great that games against Miami mean something again. It's the way it should be. Another thing we can thank the Tuna for. The Dolphins started to move away -- wisely -- from the Wildcat offense that won them the division in '08. They lost some tough games last year and dropped to 7-9 but there will be many who will predict that the Dolphins finish ahead of the Patriots. Not me. I can see the Pats going down to Miami and winning a big one on the road.

WEEK 5 Bye

Are games two through four way too early to say the success (or lack thereof) of the Patriots season will mostly be decided heading into an early bye? No. We will know quite a bit about the Patriots already. If they win their two home games and split on the road they will be at 3-1 (2-1 in the division). Anything more than that will be a sign that the team is starting to make the transition from the Bruschi/Harrison years to the Mayo/Wilfork years. Anything less than 3-1 and we're probably looking at another up and down year. Especially with the brutal schedule from here on.

WEEK 6 vs. Baltimore

The rematch. Regardless of the Pats record this will be a huge game. The Ravens crushing playoff win in Gillette is still fresh in my mind and I'm sure it will be for the Pats come Week 6. The fact that the Pats get their bye right before this game will make for quite a build-up, especially if both teams are playing well. And unlike the playoff game there will be Don Julio margaritas being poured on this day. I can't wait. I think the Pats are still the type of team that won't lose a grudge match like this.

WEEK 7 @ San Diego

If the Pats come into this game at 4-1 or better and go to SD and win on the road... well let's just say we will all start thinking the Pats are back. (Not that they have really gone anywhere). But that's a tall order. The Chargers won 11 straight games to finish at 13-3 last year but still managed to choke in the playoffs -- again. LT is gone. But Phillip Rivers isn't. He's the guy that wins games. This one likely goes to SD.

WEEK 8 vs. Minnesota

The Ravens, the Chargers, and then the Vikings? It's a hell of a schedule. 2010 is either going to be a lot fun or very ugly. The schedule won't allow much in between. I never thought I would say this but... I hope Brett Favre doesn't retire one more time. Can't you already get psyched at the thought of the NFL career interception leader coming to Foxborough on Halloween? Favre or no, Pats roll at home against a slightly overrated NFC team.

WEEK 9 @ Cleveland

This is one of the road games the team has to win. The Browns scored only 245 points last season and gave up 375 for one of the largest differentials in the league. Simply put the Browns are bad. Yet they still will win five or six times next season. The Pats have to make sure they aren't one of them. And they better because the next two games are going to be probably the toughest back-to-back games of the season.

WEEK 10 @ Pittsburgh

The Steelers have won two Super Bowls in the last five years and followed each by missing the playoffs. They've been an interesting team the past decade. And one of the Pats' main rivals. Going into Pittsburgh on a Sunday night and winning is not easy. I expect the Steelers to return to form and be a playoff team. Unless Big Ben is suspended. This is one of those games that will play a large role in who gets a playoff bye and who doesn't.

WEEK 11 vs. Indianapolis

As will this one. The Pats and Colts meet yet again. This time back at Gillette. You might remember last year's game for that little fourth down play near the end of the game. That might come up during the week before this one. Colts almost won their second Super Bowl with Peyton Manning but lost in a great game against the Saints. Will there be a hangover for them? I think so. Pats get the upper hand in this one.

WEEK 12 @ Detroit

Pass the gravy please. I have the Pats coming into their Turkey Day matchup with Detriot at 7-3. That means they should leave here 8-3. The Lions were 2-14 last year and should not be much better than that. The last time the Pats played the Lions on Thanskgiving was the 2000 season, Belichick's first with the team. I worked on Sundays when the Pats weren't at home so I didn't get to see any of the road games that year. "This is the first game I've gotten to sit on the couch and watch on TV this year,'' I told my nephew Pete. "I can't wait." Lions 34, Pats 9. I expect it to be different this time.

WEEK 13 vs. NY Jets

So in my perfect-world scenario the Pats come into this huge Monday night home game against the hated Jets at 8-3 or better. The beauty of it is that even if they are 6-5 this will still be a great night of tailgating if they can win. But I expect this to be a clash of division leaders. And I expect, like last year, for the Pats to even the score at home. As I expect, like last year, for the Pats to win the AFC East.

WEEK 14 @ Chicago

The team enters a string of three very winnable games. If their record is around 9-3 (as I hope), then these three games are where they can put away a first-round bye and then get healthy and rested for the playoffs. A cold-weather road trip to Chicago should give the Pats their 10th win.

WEEK 15 vs. Green Bay

Can the Patriots finish another year with a perfect record against the NFC? Yes. They've gone 15-1 against the other conference in the last four years. They should finish up a 4-0 campaign with a win over the Pack. If this was a road game I would have to give the nod to Green Bay, a definite playoff contender. But it's at home in December.

WEEK 16 @ Buffalo

This is a key division game for the Pats. A sweep of the Bills would go a long way towards winning the East. They have played some ugly late-season games in Ralph Wilson Stadium recently. This one probably won't be too pretty either. But an ugly win is a win nonetheless.

WEEK 17 vs. Miami

I'm predicting the Pats will strut into this game at 12-3 and the division wrapped up. Hey, what's the point of being a fan if you can't be positive? It's very possible this game could decide the division, or decide who goes to the playoffs and who doesn't. So in either case Foxborough will be the place to be on a cold January 2 day. What a schedule it is. What a season it could be.