Thursday, October 7, 2010

Four score

The NFL has hit the quarter mark of the 16-game schedule. (What's a quarter of 18? Just another problem with the proposed "enhanced" season.) Only four of the 32 teams have yet to record a victory. And those teams (SF, Buf, Det, Car) have all come very close to at least one win. The 2010 season looks like it's going to be up for grabs the whole way. There don't appear to be too many contenders to finish 15-1 or 14-2. I wouldn't be surprised to see the best record end up at 12-4, or even 11-5. That hasn't happened since the 2002 season.

Who are the contenders for that 12-4 record? Here are the top 10 after four games:

1. New York Jets (3-1): There's no debating it. The Jets -- so far -- have backed up Rex Ryan's big talk. After their lame opener against the Ravens, the Green have responded with three straight division wins. They have done it without several key starters on defense. Sanchez -- who proved in the playoffs last year that he had the makeup to be a good NFL quarterback -- has not thrown a pick yet this year. Last year the Jets gave away several games they could have won. You get the feeling that won't happen as much this year.

2. New Orleans Saints (3-1): All three victories that the defending champs have were hanging in the balance till the last play. The Saints are somewhat fortunate to be 3-1. Brees has really yet to kick it into gear yet. -- I should know, he's my fantasy QB -- but he will. Probably soon. They have games against Arizona, Tampa, and Cleveland coming up. They'll be 6-1 and leading the NFC when those games are done.

3. Baltimore Ravens (3-1): There are 10 teams with three wins and another 14 with two. That's 24 out of 32 teams. And they are all pretty close. The Ravens have the potential when all is said and done to be the best among those teams. They went into Pittsburgh and handed the Steelers their first loss, winning on a touchdown pass with 30 seconds to play. A great pass by Flacco. Followed by a great interception by Ray Lewis to wrap the game up. The Ravens have solid leaders and solid coaching. It's gonna be a heck of a game at Gillette.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1): Did they really win three games with Big Ben on suspension? No wonder I can't stand the Steelers. They lost a tough one at home to Baltimore, but were so close to being 4-0. While the offense survived without Roethlisberger, the defense thrived. The Steelers D is first against the run and first in points allowed. They are only 19th against the pass however. That could prove to be a fatal weakness.

5. Green Bay Packers (3-1): The Pack has one of the best offenses in the game even without running back Ryan Grant. Aaron Rodgers has as many weapons as Tom Brady and knows how to spread the ball around. And the Pack's D is better than the Pats -- at this moment.  But they lost a big game to the Bears and almost lost to Detroit. They have games coming up at Washington and home against Miami and Minnesota. That's a tough stretch.

6. New England Patriots (3-1):  Was there a team more due for a big road win? The 41-14 win in Miami showed the many strengths that the 2010 Pats have. An offense that is now quicker and tougher than it was last year. Brady, when he's in command of the game, is still the best. A coaching staff that seems to be more in sync with its players. Young, fast athletes that can make plays. Monday night all those strengths made up for the one, still glaring weakness. An inexperienced defense that has almost no pass rush.

7. Houston Texans (3-1): The other Texas team may be the real dark horse to win a Super Bowl this year. Houston opened its season by defeating division nemesis Indy. Running back Arian Foster has the Texans leading the league in rushing. That's significant for a team that already had a dangerous passing game. Mario Williams is becoming the pass rushing beast worthy of being the first player taken in the draft. Add to that a solid coach in Gary Kubiak and the Texans are going to be good for years to come.

8. Indianapolis Colts (2-2): The only two-win team to be considered in the top 10. Why? Peyton Manning of course. The Colts can't stop the run. They are starting to show some signs of age on the defense. Pierre Garcon has taken a big step back, although Austin Collie has taken a step forward. They are in a brutal division. But they have Manning.

9. Atlanta Falcons (3-1): Matt Ryan and the Falcons are the NFC's dark horse (now that my pick the Niners are 0-4). The Falcons have that punishing running/solid passing combo on offense that can beat you in many ways. The defense has stepped it up in the first month, allowing only 15 points per game. And they have already gone into New Orleans and knocked off the defending champs.

10. Kansas City Chiefs (3-0): They're the only unbeaten team left so they have to make the top 10. And I listed them as my AFC surprise team in my preseason rankings where I had them at #11. Have the boys in red looked dominant in their 3-0 start? Not at all. The other teams that are possible top 10 material are San Diego, Chicago, Cincy, Denver, and the entire NFC East. But the Chiefs get the nod because they haven't lost yet. They will soon.

Dishonorable mention: San Francisco 49ers. Also in my preseason rankings I raved about coach Mike Singletary and how he was going to lead the Niners back to the top of the NFC West and maybe as far as the conference title game. I knew he was still that linebacker with the crazed look in his eyes but I thought that would motivate and inspire his team. Mostly it just seems to scare them. Me too.


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