Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Tournament teams

The very entertaining 2011 NFL regular season -- the one that almost wasn't -- has come to an end. Tebow. The Pack's run at 16-0. The Jets' collapse. Passing records falling like Ocho trying to catch a ball. The Harbaugh brothers. Very entertaining indeed. I thought the Pats would barely win the AFC East with an 11-5 record. They won the division a little easier than that. The Pats are the top seed in the AFC again. The defending champs are the top in the NFC. Will they stage a rematch of the '96 Super Bowl? New Orleans, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, or San Fran might have something to say about that. Here's my final Top 12. Why 12? Because that's how many playoff teams there are.

1. Green Bay Packers (15-1): Can they repeat like the '04 Pats? Yes they can. Will they? We'll see. Aaron Rodgers and his offense can score from anywhere on the field. Ryan Grant's return to health has gone under the radar but will be big in the playoffs. The Packers D gives up just as many yards as the Pats, but none of the experts seem to be concerned about that. Preseason rank: #3.

2. New Orleans Saints (13-3): Can they stop the Pack from back-to-back titles? Yes they can. Will they? We'll see. Drew Brees is unstoppable. He led my nephew Pete to a fantasy title almost single-handed. He looks ready to do the same in real football. If I were given a grand and told to put it on one team right now ... it would be the Saints. Preseason rank: #7.

3. New England Patriots (13-3): Since the two teams ranked ahead of the Pats are both in the NFC, that puts the Pats in the Super Bowl. Right? But that's getting way ahead of things. First they have to win a home playoff game. If it's Cincy or Denver coming to town in two weeks, I think the team gets the playoff monkey off its back. If it's the Steelers, well I think the Pats will still get that win but that is typed with a lot less confidence. Two words: Brady. Belichick. Preseason rank: #2.

4. Baltimore Ravens (12-4): The team that has the best chance of ruining another January for Pats fans. I've been expecting the team in black and purple to make a deep playoff run for a few years now. It's still hasn't happened. And the Hall of Fame defense is getting a little old. If the offense can make some plays they will be hard to beat. There is one guy I don't want to see walking into Gillette this month... Terrell Suggs. Preseason rank: #4.

5. San Francisco 49ers (13-3): The Niners will get a bit overshadowed by all the talk about the Pack and the Saints. They shouldn't. They are the dark horse that just might lap the field with their defense. They allowed the second fewest points this season. Patrick Willis is a beast. As is running back Frank Gore. The key will be how does young QB Alex Smith handle the playoff pressure. Preseason rank: #16.

6. Detroit Lions (10-6): Any playoff game that the Detroit Lions are playing in I am watching. This team is entertaining on so many levels. The passing game is explosive. As are the tempers of the head coach and the best defensive player. Big passes. Big penalties. You never know what can happen when the Lions are on the field. Good and bad. Preseason rank: #17.

7. Atlanta Falcons (10-6): The Falcons did not look sharp in their game against New Orleans two weeks ago. Not sharp at all. But the Saints can do that to teams. Atlanta has some talent. Matt Ryan leads a strong passing game and that's balanced with a power running game. The defense makes plays. Atlanta is very strong at home. Unfortunately they won't be having any home playoff games. Preseason rank: #6.

8. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4): The Steelers would be a few rungs higher if not for the small issue of their starting running back and starting quarterback being unable to walk. But Mike Tomlin's Steelers have always been dangerous when wounded. It's the signature of his teams. Tough. But their road through the playoffs will be just a little too tough this time around. Preseason rank: #8.

9. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7): I think Cincy goes into Houston and wins easily. So they get the nod in the rankings. The Bengals started fast this year, running up wins against a group of mediocre teams. Their second half schedule was filled with playoff teams -- and losses. But I was at the Bengals loss at Baltimore in  November and I liked what I saw. The Bengals are a good team that has played some good football but lost to better teams. That changes. Preseason rank: #31.

10. Houston Texans (10-6): The Texans would be higher too if not for the small issue of the team being on its fourth starting QB. If healthy, the Texans would be a major threat. They are still a threat thanks to their defense, but not a major one. The Texans are hoping TJ Yates is healthy enough to play. That's what kind of year it has been for Houston. Hoping TJ Yates can play. Cincy's defense is probably hoping that too. Preseason rank: #9.

11. New York Giants (9-7): The best pass rush in the playoffs. Is that enough to launch Eli on another improbable Super Bowl run? I hope not. But any Tom Coughlin team is dangerous. Any team with little Manning is dangerous. Any team with both Bradshaw and Jacobs at running back is dangerous. Any team with Cruz and Nicks at WR is dangerous. I might have the Giants ranked too low. Preseason rank: #18.

12. Denver Broncos (8-8): I don't have the Broncos ranked too low. That's for sure. What the heck happened to Tim Tebow? Ever since "SNL" did that Jesus skit the team hasn't won a game. The "SNL" jinx? Hmmm... Not surprisingly it didn't take NFL coaches long to start slowing Tebow down. I caught the last quarter of the team's loss to KC. Tebow looked like he had regressed back to his first few weeks. Or maybe the whole offense had. They come into the playoffs on a three-game losing streak. A well-earned losing streak. Preseason rank: #23.

Dishonorable mention:: I've been waiting to write this for two years... The New York Jets. (Sorry Jim). Rex Ryan, Mr. Big Mouth and Bigger Toes, reportedly cried when addressing his players the day after their season ended in flames. Really, there were almost actual flames. Team "captain" Santonio Holmes was benched after getting into an argument in the huddle. LT was his usual back-stabbing self at the end. Ryan cried. Bursting ... into ... flames. Mt. Ryan has already started making his Super Bowl predictions for next year. It was kind of laughable the previous two years after the team lost in the AFC title game. This year, after their train wreck 8-8 finish, it's Stooges funny. Preseason rank: #1. Very funny.



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