The worst

I can't believe that hit by Wes Welker on Aqib Talib. I just can't believe it.

I can't believe that the 5-9 (maybe), 185-pound Welker slammed into the 6-1, 205-pound Talib and that the 6-1, 205-pound Talib is the one who limped off the field, into the locker room, and didn't return to the little thing known as the AFC Championship Game.

Really? I agree with Belichick ... That is the worst thing I've ever seen. Since when does a tiny slot receiver crash into a big defensive back and it's the DB that gets the worst of it? The worst indeed.

Watch the Zapruder film above. "Back. And to the left. Back. And to the left." It looks to me like Welker was looking to pick Talib (a common, if illegal move) and instead of just bumping him he just ran smack into him. When I look at the film I see two guys colliding. Talib seems to actually crunch Welker with his shoulder. If I didn't know the outcome and I watched the video I would say "I don't think that little guy is getting up." But the little guy did get up and the big guy did not. And in a game where there weren't too many big plays for the Patriots, that was a big play. It wouldn't have changed the outcome unless Talib could have played offense too, but losing Talib definitely made Manning's life a whole lot easier.

It seems that Bill Belichick really can't be rational when it comes to #83. First he -- and just about everyone else -- blamed him for not catching that pass in the Super Bowl. You know. The one that should have been a title-clinching TD that Brady completely missed. Welker took the heat for that one just because he tried to make an acrobatic, twirling mid-air catch instead of just letting it sail way over his head. Brady still needs to take the blame for that one.

Then Belichick decided that Welker catching 100 passes each year -- many to keep drives going -- was not really that crucial to the offense after all. He decided to let him walk and replace him with Danny Amendola. I thought Amendola -- if healthy -- would certainly be a very good replacement for Welker. But he couldn't be Welker. The guy is as tough as they come. Amendola was nowhere to be found during the biggest game of his career. That never happens with Welker.

Now Welker is responsible for one of the worst plays Belichick has ever seen? I don't know. Belichick is often right and I'm not. But no matter how many times I watch the video it is just too "bang-bang" a play to say there was any intent by Welker other than to interfere with Talib. It just looks like two guys coming across the middle on a collision course and neither being able to get out of the way even if they wanted to.

On another note... that's the second year in a row that Talib has limped out of the AFC title game. That's not saying he's not tough enough. He's played all year with a bad hip. He's tough. And he's very good. But he's also just as injury prone as that other guy we signed ... Amendola.

Welker ... he's tough. And he keeps on playing.

Mile low

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
I'm not really sure what the people in the Sports Blabosphere are going to do this week. If you watched the Patriots season end with a 26-16 loss to the Broncos in Denver you know there really isn't much to say.

There aren't any "if only Brady had done this" or "if only Dennard had done that." The Patriots were outplayed from start to finish. It was 20-3 at the half but it might as well have been 40-3. Sure, the Pats were down 24-0 to this same Denver team just two months ago and stormed back to win. But that was at Gillette. And the reason the Pats were down in that game was that they turned the ball over and made one mistake after another.

The Patriots didn't make many mistakes yesterday (no turnovers) ... problem is they just didn't make many plays. Or any plays when it really mattered. It was as sound a beat down as any Belichick-Brady team has ever had. Me and my friends and family didn't get to throw a high-five until the game was almost over. That sucked.

The Broncos were the better team all year. But not that much better. The Broncos defense allowed an average of almost 25 points per game during the season (the Pats D allowed just under 22). The Broncos had a solid run defense (as was obvious yesterday pretty early on) but the Pats were better against the pass (not so obvious yesterday). All-in-all it should have been a pretty even battle. One look at the NFC title match between San Fran and Seattle showed what the game should have looked like. Both teams making big plays on offense and defense and special teams, the lead going back and forth, and finally one team making the biggest play to clinch it.

In the AFC title game it was the Broncos making all the plays. One after another after another after another. At times it seemed the Pats were just standing around and watching. Denver receivers were wide open, caught the ball, and then usually broke a tackle or two before either running out of bounds or going down gently. There were no moments of Bronco players taking a big hit as the cost for making a play. Denver was comfortable the whole game.

Other than Edelman, there really wasn't one player on the Pats who looked like they had a clue. Combine that with the Broncos playing an outstanding game and you get dominated. Manning threw for 400 yards because the Patriots' pass rush was more invisible than it usually is. And it's usually very hard to see. It was not the secondary's finest day, but it's hard to cover the best group of receivers in the game when the best quarterback in the game never gets dirty.

The only chance was to put pressure on the Broncos with the offense. But for the fifth year in a row the season ended with the team struggling just to get near 20 points. Brady missed some early chances at big plays and the offense showed a little spark at the end but when the team needed a big play they couldn't make it. The offensive line -- which had looked so strong down the stretch -- was a non-factor. The beast running game that had the offense looking like it was geared for a drive to the Super Bowl didn't show up. Folk hero LaGarrette Blount rushed for six yards. Six.

With the offense providing no pressure and the defense scratching and clawing to keep the game close, the Broncos were content to kick field goals. It seemed that John Fox (me last Tuesday: "Belichick will not lose to John Fox.") figured out sooner than most people that field goals were going to be enough to beat the Pats on this day. You had the feeling that if the Broncos needed to get touchdowns on those drives they would have gone on some of those fourth downs and put up seven. But they never had to.

Another disappointing ending to a great season. But that's the thing. It was another great season. That's like 13 in a row. And this year's team was as fun to root for as any of them. No Gronk. No Big Vince. No Mayo. No Seabass. No Spikes. No Amendola and Vereen for much of the year. But the team kept winning. I thought there was no way they could compete with the Saints offense, even at home. Pats 30-27. I figured there was no chance to come back down 24-0 to Denver. Pats 34-31. And there was no way they could go into Baltimore and beat a Ravens team that had won four in a row. Pats 41-7.

I figured it would be unlikely that they could go into Denver and pull off the upset in one of the toughest places to play. But this team just kept winning. Even the games they lost were close ones. Till today. As has been the case often in the past few years, the Pats saved their worst game of the season for their last game. That's always disappointing -- but no longer surprising -- with a Belichick-Brady team. That's what makes winning three titles in four years still so amazing. Watch each episode of "Three Games to Glory" one of these boring non-football days ahead and you will see just how many times the team's season came close to ending. But each time someone stepped up and made a play. Each time. The 2013 Pats were that team for most of the season but came up two games short. The 2014 Pats look to have a chance to take it two steps further and get the fourth "Three Games to Glory" made.

Well, that is if Gronk comes back healthy. If Vince can still play. If Edelman and Talib re-sign. If the team can find a pass rush. If Brady can stay healthy one more season. If ...

If my biggest complaint about the Pats is that they keep losing in the Super Bowl or the AFC title game ... well, I remember 1-15.

The good Manning

I know it's taboo for a Pats' fan to say... I like that Peyton Manning. (Not so for the little Manning, but he's thankfully done for the year ... so who cares about him?)

I like Peyton. He makes really funny commercials. He seems like a genuinely good guy. His teammates seem to really like him. He often loses to the Patriots in huge games. He doesn't sell UGGs. Oh, and he's one of the three or four best quarterbacks I have ever seen play the toughest position in pro sports.

Montana. Brady. Bradshaw. Aikman. Marino. Elway. Kelly. Staubach. Manning. For me, those are the best of my generation. You can put them in any order that you want. I never thought a Patriot quarterback would be on that list. I grew up watching Bradshaw and Staubach build Hall of Fame careers. I later watched as Montana, Aikman, and Elway won titles. I may not have always been rooting for them but I always enjoyed watching them and loved the way they played.

Manning is the same way. I don't really want to see him win another Super Bowl -- mainly because he's a Bronco and Pats' fans have a special dislike of the Mile High team. But if he does win it all he will have earned it -- again.

Even after a career-threatening neck surgery took a year away from him just as he was entering the last few years of his career, Manning the elder has battled all the way back and still makes passes that boggle the mind. He may be better than ever.

And he's still pretty funny....

Miss him now, Bill?

Well that should put an end to the "it's not Welker, it's the system" crap.

In his debut with Peyton Manning -- oh, and the rest of the Broncos -- Wes Welker grabbed 9 passes for 67 yards and two touchdowns. It would seem that another 100-catch season has begun for #83. What else would you expect? The guy can't be covered. 

You could see the Welker departure coming for a while, so when he did leave for Denver there was a lot disappointment but an equal amount of acceptance. That's the way it goes. As I've said before, Bobby Orr didn't finish his career a Bruin so nothing should surprise. The Pats made Welker a solid offer before last season, Welker turned it down, then the Pats took their usual stonewall stance, Welker hit the market and, although settling for a little less, he was quickly lured to the Rockies. It's called free agency.

It didn't bother me too much until I saw the photo above. Manning and Welker could be better than Brady and Welker. They could be better than anyone. Ever. The photo above says it all. As smart as Brady is as a quarterback, Manning is just a little smarter. Now he has a guy who plays the game just as smart. Manning's quick mind with Welker's quick feet will be tough to stop. 

The Sports Blabosphere offered the theory that although Welker is good, it was Brady and Belichick that made him great. Of course they played a key role. But it was more Welker's quickness, football instincts, tireless work ethic, tough-as-nails attitude, competitive drive, and athletic talent. The guy can't be covered.

The Patriots should be just fine. But it will be just a little less fun to watch without Welker catching those Brady lasers across the middle on 3rd-and-8 or grabbing the ball and spinning around to add on a handful of YACs.

OK, Danny Amendola. Let's see something.

A familiar face

The Ravens' victory in double overtime against the Broncos in Denver was one of the best playoff games I've ever seen. And one of the biggest upsets. I gave Baltimore no chance to win that game. No chance. And I thought there was no chance I would see the Manning face. But I got to see quite a bit of it. It looks good with a stocking cap.

The Ravens' shocker means the Pats and Texans play for the chance to host the AFC title game instead of having to go to Denver. As if tomorrow's game wasn't big enough. If the Pats take care of business against Houston we get a rematch of last year's epic conference title game... at Gillette. 

Pats-Ravens II. One more tailgate. The thought of that brings a happy face.

Round two

OK, that was not a very entertaining Wild Card weekend. Sure, the Bengals-Texans game was close most of the way and Seattle's comeback against the Skins had some drama but the four games were not that exciting. Unless you are a Packers, Texans, Ravens, or Seahawks fan. Then they were great games. I thought they would be more competitive but each game had a team that clearly wasn't ready for the playoffs. That should change this weekend. All four matchups should be bruising battles. Even the Patriots rematch with Houston. Despite what most in the Blabosphere are saying, this will not be an easy game for the Pats. The Texans will leave their letterman jackets behind this time. They will be ready.

AFC

Ravens (11-6) at Broncos (13-3): The Ray Lewis retirement party begins immediately after this game. I just don't see Peyton Manning losing at home after putting together the season he has in Denver. I know it's supposed to be cold and the elder Manning never wins in the cold. But you're talking about the fifth best passing attack in the league against a very average defense. Andrew Luck is no Peyton Manning. And the Colts don't have wide receivers like Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas. Add to that a healthy Willis McGahee and I don't see the Ravens D holding Manning to under 23 points. And it's very unlikely that Joe Flacco can score more than 20 points against the Denver defense. All the focus is on Manning and Lewis but the Bronco defense was third in the league against the pass and third in the league against the run. The Denver D is very very good. The Broncos are no 13-3 fluke. And they are at home. They will be hosting the AFC title game. Broncos 27, Ravens 16.

Texans (13-4) at Patriots (12-4): No one is giving Houston a chance to win this one. Including me. But that doesn't mean it will be an easy game or that the Texans can't win. They can. I just don't think they will. But I didn't think the Jets could come into Gillette in the Divisional Round two years ago and win. They did. And this Texans team is much better than that Jets team. Much better. I watched Alabama destroy unbeaten Notre Dame in the college championship game and thought if Brady and the Patriots can play at the level that the Tide played at for three more games then they will finally get that fourth Lombardi. The Texans will play a better game than they did in the Monday night thrashing a month ago. They have to play better. But better won't be good enough if the Pats play at their peak. And that is where the questions come in. Can Talib be the shutdown corner I've heard tell of? Can the secondary not give up the big plays? Can Ridley hold on to the ball? Can rookies Jones and Hightower rise up under the playoff pressure? Can Brady stop throwing the bad pick in a playoff game? Can Gosty make a clutch playoff kick? I think the answers to most of those questions, at least for this week, are yes. Patriots 34, Texans 20.


NFC

Packers (12-5) at 49ers (11-4-1): The classic battle of the wide-open offense against the smash-mouth defense. I'm really looking forward to this game. The numbers favor the Niners in almost every category. They are the fourth ranked D in the league while the Pack is in the middle of the pack. The Niners also have one of the best rushing attacks in the game. If Frank Gore dominates the Green Bay D and keeps Aaron Rodgers off the field then the Pack is in trouble. But that's where San Fran quarterback Colin Kaepernick comes in. Coach Jim Harbaugh with his rather large ego wants to show that he made the right choice by benching Alex Smith in favor of his guy. So he will have Kaepernick throwing. Since Kaepernick took over the starting job Gore has not had a 100-yard rushing game. He had three before that. I think the Niners throw the ball more than they should and that opens the door for Rodgers and his array of receiving weapons. The Packers are a veteran team that will not be afraid to win on the road. Packers 27, Niners 23.

 

Seahawks (12-5) at Falcons (13-3): The Seahawks are the surprise team in the NFL's elite eight. And they just might be the most dangerous. If Pete Carroll wins a Super Bowl ... What was I saying? Right. Seahawks vs. the Falcons. Seattle is a team that plays to its strengths. They have the best runner in the game right now, Marshawn Lynch. And they run him right down their opponent's throat. And then they have rookie QB Russell Wilson make some plays. On defense they are just nasty everywhere. They play like the old Miami Hurricanes defense. Like criminals. They are intimidating. And if there's one team in the NFL the past few years that can be intimidated it's Matt Ryan's Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons have the sixth best passing attack in the league with Roddy White, Julio Jones, and future hall of famer Tony Gonzalez catching Ryan's passes. But Seattle has the best pass defense in the game. What else do the Falcons have? They are 29th in the league in rushing and 23rd against the pass and 21st against the run. That's not good. The Falcons will be one and done again. Seahawks 30, Falcons 21.

The leader board

One month to go in the 2012 NFL regular season. So far it's been a highly entertaining season (unless you live in KC). This is a pretty good brand of NFL football. And I grew up on 1970s NFL. One of the toughest, craziest, most innovative decades of football ever. If you are a pro football fan, today's NFL -- with the NFL Network, NFL.com, and, most importantly, the Red Zone -- is as good as anything television has to offer. It's the best comedy/drama/reality series there is.

There's the story of Peyton Manning coming back from "Terminator" neck surgery and playing better than ever. There's Andrew Luck, the rookie who replaced Manning in Indy, showing why Indy was crazy enough to give up on one of the three greatest quarterbacks to ever play the game. There's RG3. There's the Colts going from two wins last year to a playoff team this year, inspired by their coach who was diagnosed with cancer. In an era of fantastic offensive displays, there are contenders in San Fran, Seattle, Houston, and Chicago that are led by nasty, hard-hitting defenses.

Oh, and there's Tom Brady and the Patriots battling for the top -- again. The rest of the NFL-loving world must be beyond sick of them. That makes rooting for them that much more enjoyable.

Twelve teams will make the playoffs. Six in each conference. These are the twelve I think will make it...

1. Houston Texans (11-1): It took back-to-back overtime wins against lesser teams (Jags and Lions) to keep the Texans from plummeting down this list. But win they did. The have talent all over the field and they are well coached by the perfectly coiffed Gary Kubiak. The Texans face the biggest game in their franchise history on Monday night at Gillette. Bigger than their playoff game last year. Why? Because if they win they are the #1 seed and get to eat Texas BBQ throughout the AFC playoffs. If they lose then they are in a dogfight just to get a first-round bye. The Texans are the second best team in the league against the run. The Pats are eighth in rushing. The Texans have a point differential of an impressive +130. There's only one team better... the Pats at +170. That's right. The Pats have score 170 more points than they have allowed.

2. New England Patriots (9-3): And that's why they are the second best team in the league till they win Monday night. Did I mention they have scored 170 more points than they have allowed? And they have done it with major injuries to Hernandez, to Gronk, to Edelman, to most of the offensive line, to both starting safeties, and now to rookie of the year candidate Chandler Jones. If Brady and the Pats can get a bye and get healthy come January, there is only one team that would make me nervous in the playoffs. That's the one with the white N and the G on their blue helmets, of course.

3. Atlanta Falcons (11-1): I said in an earlier ranking that the Falcons have the smell of that team that goes 15-1 and loses at home in the Divisional Round to the Bears or the Giants. They are starting to smell just a little less each week. Following their first loss to New Orleans a month ago they have beaten Arizona, Tampa, and their nemesis the Saints in three tough games. Playoff-like games. The Falcons have the fourth-best passing attack. But they are only 28th in the league in rushing, And they are average stopping the pass and the run. They deserve to be ranked at the top of the NFC heading into the stretch drive, but I wouldn't bet on them getting a chance to play for the Lombardi.

4. Denver Broncos (9-3): How great would it be if Peyton Manning and the Broncos came into Gillette for the AFC Championship game? I know, be careful what you wish for. But it would be great. Especially if it was about 25 degrees with a little snow. I've got plenty of layers for that. And it just might happen because Manning the Elder is playing as great as ever. It really shouldn't come as a shock. Impressive, yes. But not a shock. If you've been watching Manning for nearly 20 years you've seen him do some amazing things. This year is no different. The best play the veteran made all year was when he passed over other teams and chose to go to Denver. The Broncos were a pretty good team last year. Now they are very good.

5. San Francisco 49ers (8-3-1): The best defense in the league is great to have but you still need to be able to control the ball and score points on offense. That's the Niners achilles heel. And they now have a quarterback controversy. That's never good. Jim Harbaugh got a little too smart for his own good. But he's always been that way. The Niners were looking solid with Alex Smith at QB, the guy who led them to the NFC title game. Then he got hurt and Harbaugh's guy Colin Kaepernick came in and looked pretty good. But really not any better than Smith. And then the Niners lost to the Rams with Kaepernick and now Harbaugh has a problem. But it's not a huge problem because quarterback is not -- by far -- the most important position on his team. That's because his running game is the second best in the league. And the defense? Well, it's second against the pass and third against the run. The best defense in the league.

6. Green Bay Packers (8-4): It's been a crazy season so far for the Pack. The team that went 15-1 last year has had a much bumpier, injury-filled ride this time. The Pack had a game stolen from them by the fake refs. After five games they were sitting at 2-3 but then strung together five straight wins and were looking like the NFC favorite again only to get stomped by the Giants. After all that, the Pack is still sitting at 8-4 and now have a chance to grab that #2 seed and get the bye and a home game at Lambeau. If Aaron Rodgers and his well-coached team can do that then I think you will be seeing them in the Super Bowl.

7. New York Giants (7-5): Or you'll see these guys. A month ago I had the 6-2 defending champs at the top of the list. Since then they have gone 1-3. They are now in a dogfight with the Skins and the Cowboys ... and the Skins with RG3 are starting to jell. Why do I find the Giants more dangerous at 7-5 than I did when they were 6-2? Because that's what the Giants do. Little Manning had a rough few weeks but you now he will be clutch when it counts. And the G-Men have that great pass rush. Still, I get the feeling that the horseshoe may have fallen out of this team's pocket.

8. Chicago Bears (8-4): When the Bears are clicking they are a heck of a team. It's just hard to believe a team coached by Lovie Smith and led by Jay Cutler will click when it counts. But the defense is good enough to give them a chance to find out. There's been a lot of talk of how Brandon Marshall has made a huge difference on the offense. And he has. But the Chicago passing game is 31st in the league. Sure, the running game is top 10. As is the defense. But with Cutler in charge the Bears are always beatable.

9. Indianapolis Colts (8-4): One of the more compelling stories in the league this year is the Colts resurgence and the fact that it's happening while their first-year coach is being treated for cancer. As great a human interest story as that is, it's the play of rookie QB Andrew Luck and the rest of the rebuilding Colts that has been something to see. Luck has had Manning-like moments. The rest of the team is  pretty average, but Luck (like Manning) makes everyone better. The Colts are the Cinderella team riding on emotion. You don't want to play them in the first round.

10. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5): This is the point in the rankings where you can choose from about fifteen teams. I'm going with the proven commodity. Big Ben and the Steelers are getting older and are pretty banged up. But they just schooled RG3 and the Skins on how to play smash-mouth football. As the Ravens are losing more guys to injury, the Steelers are starting to get healthier. If they get Polamalu back they should win the AFC North and be a team to fear in the playoffs because they have the experience and they have Big Ben.

11. Seattle Seahawks (7-5): Pete Carroll has something going here. Much to my surprise. It seems like he has built a really good college team in the Northwest and those college players are responding to his style. The Seahawks are like the Bears. Good running game. Very good defense.  Not very dangerous passing game. But rookie Russell Wilson has been gaining more confidence. I would have more faith in him than Cutler in a playoff game. Seattle will go as far as their young, nasty D will carry them.

12. Baltimore Ravens (9-3): If there were more than four weeks left in the season I think the Bengals would catch the Ravens for the last wildcard spot. The veteran (old) team in Baltimore is fading that fast. The Ravens are 15th in the league in passing, but only 23rd in the league in rushing. That's hard to explain considering they have Ray Rice. More worrisome if you are a Raven fan is the fact that the defense is ranked 23rd against the pass AND the run. The Ravens have a lot of talent, but they are a wounded team heading into the playoffs.

Dishonorable mention: The 3-9 Philadephia Eagles. Sure, I could have put the Jets here after their performance on Thanksgiving night against the Pats. (He ran into his ass!) But enough of the Jets. The Eagles are having an even more hideous season. Their second in a row. Since dubbing themselves the "Dream Team" before last year, the Eagles have gone 11-17. Dream on. Michael Vick. Disaster. DeSean Jackson. Disaster. Nmandi Asomugha. Disaster. Andy Reid. Gone.

Week 12 rewind

When you beat your division rival 49-19 at their place on Thanksgiving night and no one gets hurt there's nothing to put in the weekly "bad" category. It really was all good. The only thing missing was Gronk joining Brady and Vince chomping on a turkey leg after the game.

So there's really not much need to look back at last Thursday's game against the Jets except when you are feeling blue and need a good laugh. Then you should look back at the Sanchez play. Other than that it's time to look ahead to the final five games of the regular season. The division is just about wrapped up but there is still a very tight battle for the second seed and a first-round bye.

Let's assume that the 10-1 Texans hold on to the top spot in the AFC. It's a pretty good bet. The question is who will be #2? At the moment it is the 9-2 Ravens. Right on their heels are the 8-3 Pats and 8-3 Broncos. How important is it to get the two seed, a week off, and home playoff game? Well, if you ask the New York Giants it's not that important at all. But the odds of making the AFC title game are much better if all you have to do is win one home game to get there. If the Giants want to try to win another Super Bowl by going 9-7 and playing three road playoff games let them.

The Ravens have stolen several close wins (like Sunday's game against the Chargers), but considering the number of key injuries the team has had on defense their 9-2 record is impressive. They hold the tie-breaker against the Pats with their win earlier in the year so they really have a two-game lead over them. That's a problem. But the Pats beat the Broncos so they have the tie-breaker against them. If all three teams ended up tied then it would go to the "conference record" tie-breaker. Right now the Pats and Ravens only have one conference loss while the Broncos have two. Who will blink first?

Here are the remaining games for each team. The games listed in green are the ones where the chance of winning has to be considered better than 80 percent. The games in red are the ones where the chance of winning is no better than 50 percent. The games in yellow are the ones that fall in between:

                    PATRIOTS                     RAVENS                        BRONCOS
Wk 13          @-Miami                       H-Pittsburgh                H-Tampa Bay
Wk 14          H-Houston                    @-Washington            @-Oakland
Wk 15          H-San Fran                   H-Denver                     @-Baltimore  
Wk 16          @-Jacksonville            H-NY Giants                H-Cleveland
Wk 17          H-Miami                        @-Cincy                        H-Kansas City

Let's go week by week.

Week 13: This weekend each team has a tough -- but winnable -- game. The Pats go down to Miami where they have had their problems over the years. And Miami is coming off a strong game against Seattle. But can the Dolphins keep pace with Brady and the offense? No. The Ravens host their arch rivals the Steelers. Pittsburgh is banged up and coming off an ugly loss to Cleveland. The Steelers will be focused and motivated to save their playoff hopes. But is it enough to go into Baltimore and win on the road? No. The Broncos host the 6-5 Bucs. Denver had problems against the worst-in-the-league Chiefs last Sunday while Tampa almost beat the 10-1 Falcons. The Bucs have the best run D in the league. I think Tampa forces Manning to make some mistakes and pulls off the upset. Three very close games that really could go either way. (Ravens 10-2, Patriots 9-3, Broncos 8-4).

Week 14: The Pats are at a severe disadvantage this week. Even though they are the only one of the three contenders at home, they have to play the Texans on Monday Night Football. It is the biggest test for the Pats this year. Houston is third in the league in total offense with a balanced attack. But the Pats are first in the league. It's on the other side of the ball that the Texans have the advantage. They are 6th in total defense. The Pats are way down the list at 27th. The Pats have to have this game to get the second seed and I think they rise to the occasion and get it. They are more accustomed to the big stage than the Texans. But confidence is not high. It's definitely a "red" game. The Ravens and Broncos go on the road against two average teams. The Ravens take on RG3 and the Skins while Manning faces off against Oakland. Those are tough road games and its very possible one of them (the Ravens) could stumble. But for the sake of argument let's say the Pats win a huge home game and the Ravens and Broncos eke out tough road wins. (Ravens 11-2, Patriots 10-3, Broncos 9-4).

Week 15: This is the week that will decide it. The Broncos go to Baltimore and if the Ravens can win they pretty much lock up the second seed because they will have beaten both the Pats and the Broncos. But what if Manning and the Denver offense can exploit the aging Raven D and get the win? That will hand the Ravens their third loss and more importantly their second in the conference. And if the Pats actually did beat the Texans the week before then all they would need to do is win a home game to pull into a tie with two weeks to go. Problem is that home game is against the San Francisco 49ers. The team with the best defense in the game. And the best rushing attack. It should be a heck of Sunday Night game. But can the Pats beat the Texans and the Niners in back-to-back weeks? I don't think so. And if they are going to lose one then the one against the NFC team is the one to lose. (Ravens, 11-3, Patriots 10-4, Broncos 10-4).

Week 16: The Ravens are at a disadvantage this week. They get the defending champion Giants at home while the Pats go on the road against the Jags and the Broncos host the Browns. Those are pretty close to sure wins for the Pats and Broncos. I think the long-haul of the season begins to catch up with the Ravens and they get beat by Little Manning and the Giants who will be fighting to win their division. Three-way tie with one week to go for the two seed. (Ravens 11-4, Patriots 11-4, Broncos 11-4).

Week 17: The Ravens are again at a disadvantage, only because the Pats and Broncos have pretty easy games at home to finish out the season. The Pats host Miami on what will probably be a frigid Saturday afternoon. The Broncos have an even easier game, hosting the soon-to-have-the-#1-pick Chiefs. Those are very likely wins, putting each team at 12-4. The Ravens have to go to Cincinnati to play the Bengals who will probably be battling for one of the wild card spots. Let's say Andy Dalton and AJ Green stay hot and hand the Ravens their third straight loss to finish 11-5. The Pats and Broncos finish tied but the Pats would get the second seed because they have the head-to-head victory. (Patriots 12-4 and the #2 seed, Broncos 12-4, Ravens 11-5).

That's one possible outcome. Of course it really is impossible to pick a winner in Broncos-Ravens, or Broncos-Bucs, or Ravens-Giants, or Pats-Niners. That's what will make these last few weeks so much fun. The Patriots, Broncos, and Ravens will lock up their division in the next two weeks, but that doesn't mean they won't have a lot to play for down the stretch. A week off and a home playoff game means a lot to all three.

Playoff picture

As they say on ESPN... "If the playoffs started today..."

In the AFC, the Pats would host their longtime rivals the Steelers and in the other game Peyton Manning and the Broncos would host his old team the Colts. In the NFC, the Bears would host the Seahawks in a battle of nasty defenses and the Packers would get another shot at the Giants, the team that has knocked them out of the playoffs a few times in the last several years.

That's a great Wild Card weekend. I wish the playoffs did start today.

The unexpected

WEEK 5
Patriots 31, Broncos 21 (10/7/'12): It's always a pleasant surprise when the game-day rain that was forecast all week never really arrives.

It was just one of the many surprises on a day of the unexpected at Gillette. We arrived at Rock Ridge about five hours before kickoff on what turned out to be a pretty nice fall day for drinking and grilling. It wasn't until the third hour of tailgating (and drinking and grilling) that we needed the cover of the tent. It was right about that time, as I was enjoying the roast chicken, that another unexpected thing occurred.

One of the tailgating traditions in the Enchanted Forest is the old guy who dons a Pirates batting helmet and the jersey of that week's opponent and walks around the lot taunting Pats fans -- good natured of course or he'd have disappeared in the woods long ago never to be seen again. One week he's dressed as Ray Lewis, the next as Ben Roethlisberger. He walks among the grills and coolers yelling "Let's go Broncos! or "Come on Jets!" to the entertainment of everyone wearing Brady jerseys. It was about 4 p.m. when he made his rounds, this time wearing a vintage Elway jersey. As the tailgating crowd laughed at old man Elway, the guy tailgating next to us reached into the back of his SUV and pulled out a giant fox head. That's right. A giant fox head.

With the words "I'm coming to get you, Elway!", he put the giant fox head on and started climbing up Rock Ridge. Old man Elway stopped and looked back to see a man in a giant fox head stumbling towards him. It was obvious he was not expecting that either. The two exchanged a few words -- although it was hard to hear exactly what the guy in the giant fox head was saying -- and then old man Elway disappeared over the rocks towards the other side of the lot. As giant fox head guy walked back with his arms raised in victory, Matt -- who works for ESPN so he knows these things -- recognized that it was not just any giant fox head but actually the giant fox head of Slyde, the New England Revolution's mascot. That's right. The New England Revolution apparently have a giant fox as their mascot. And his name is apparently Slyde. Turns out one of the other guys tailgating next to us is Slyde. Not the guy who put on the head. If you google Slyde and compare him with the photo above you will notice a difference. We asked why a soccer team named the Revolution had a fox named Slyde for a mascot but no one seemed to know. Not even Slyde. So we raised a toast to our mascot neighbor and then headed into the stadium for what would turn out to be four more hours of rain-free weather and unexpected developments.

Brady vs. Manning round 13 turned wasn't really about Brady or Manning. They both had good games. Very good games. But the story was the Pats running game. Again. It is the unexpected story of the season so far. And if it continues it will make the already dangerous Pats' offense almost unstoppable. Even for the Giants in February.

The teams traded impressively long drives for a 7-7 score early in the second quarter. A tight game was one thing that was expected. The fact that my third margarita was not being watered down by rain at that point in the evening fell happily into the unexpected category. The Pats would score the next 24 points (pretty unexpected) to break the game open. Brady continued to build on what may turn out to be his best season ever. He only threw for 223 yards and one touchdown but he was in total control of the game. Any talk of anyone but him for MVP at this point is foolish.

Brady used the running game and a very hurried-up offense to wear the Bronco defenders down to the point of exhaustion and confusion. The crowd was on its feet as the Pats went on drives of 14 plays (touchdown), 16 plays (field goal), and 16 plays (touchdown). Ninkovich then sacked Manning inside the Denver 20 and Big Vince recovered another big fumble. Two plays later Stevan Ridley (151 yards rushing) crashed into the end zone and the Pats were in control 31-7. Manning put up a couple of late touchdowns to close the score to 31-21 but, like many times in the past few years, it was too little too late against the Pats D.

With a big AFC victory in hand and the Pats back in their familiar spot at the top of the AFC East, we headed back for a post-game tailgate of burgers that Matt had brought up from Noack's in Connecticut. From the time the score hit 31-7 I had been thinking about those burgers. We started unloading the truck ... table, grill, chairs, cooler ... cooler? No cooler. Just as Shep was saying "Someone stole our cooler!" one of the guys a few cars down was yelling "Someone stole our cooler!" No post-game hamburgers. No post-game beer. Talk about unexpected. In the nearly 20 years we've been tailgating we've never had a cooler or anything stolen from the back of the truck. First time for everything.

As we ate the leftover chicken we talked about two things... who would steal someone's hamburger meat! And the fact that the Tom Brady-led New England Patriots are currently averaging 165 yards a game on the ground. Third best in the NFL.

Now that's really unexpected.

Horsing around

TALES FROM THE TAILGATE
Broncos 34, Patriots 8 (11/17/'96): The Denver Broncos come to Gillette tomorrow for a big AFC game. It's always a big game when the Pats and Broncos play. And now that Peyton Manning is Denver's QB the game is even bigger.

It's always better when the Broncos have to come here instead of the Patriots going to mile high Denver. It very rarely goes well out there. Actually, it doesn't go too well wherever the Pats play the Broncos. Denver is 25-18 all-time against the Pats. Tom Brady is 3-6 against the team from Colorado. There have been some ugly losses in those games for the Pats. Ugly.

I've been to a lot of great games over the past 20-plus years. They are the games that all Pats fans remember fondly. But I've seen some heartbreaking losses and been to some blowouts that had me daydreaming of the post-game hamburgers by halftime.

There was the game in '98 against Atlanta when the line getting into the old concrete toilet bowl was so long we missed the first ten minutes. By the time we got to our seats the score was already 21-3 Falcons. It was one of the rare games that our co-worker Ken came with us. Sorry Ken. There was the '95 game against the Saints that ended with me slouched up against my car in the parking lot after the Pats surrendered two touchdowns (69-yard pass, 66-yard run) late in the game for a 31-17 loss and an official end to that season's playoff hopes.

The Super Bowl Patriots had their moments too. In '05 the defending champs were in a great battle with the Chargers on a beautiful October day. The score was tied 17-17 at the half and Paul and I said something like "This team is just so much fun to watch." ... The Chargers outscored the Pats 24-0 in the second half. The lasting memory of the day -- other than the post-game burgers -- is Antonio Gates making catch after catch as he brushed of would be tacklers like flies at a tailgate. It was ugly.

But not as ugly as the ugliest game I have ever had the bad luck of witnessing. And of course, it was against the Denver Broncos.

The Broncos came into Foxborough with a 9-1 record against the Parcells' Pats and their 7-3 record. It was a statement game. The Broncos made the statement. By the end of the first half it was 24-0. Denver out rushed the Pats 198 yards to 17. The Denver D stuffed Drew Bledsoe, holding him to just over 200 yards passing and a pick. It was one of those games where the loudest sound of the day -- other than Denver running backs smashing into and over Pats defenders -- were the groans from the stands after almost every play.

We sat on the visitors side in the old stadium. Though we were pretty far up we could see that the Denver players -- especially Shannon Sharpe -- were mocking Pats fans as the score got higher and higher. The stadium emptied out after the score hit 34-8. At one point Sharpe picked up one of the sideline phones and got into an animated conversation. We thought maybe he was ordering pizza since the game was all but over.

It wasn't till I got home and turned on SportsCenter that I saw what Sharpe was saying on the phone. "Mr. President! Call the National Guard... Send help! ... We are killing the Patriots!"

There'll be no Shannon Sharpe making calls to the president today. But there will be Peyton Manning. There's always drama when the Pats play the Broncos.

Face time

The Manning face looks the same in Bronco orange as it did in Colt blue.

If you have been following the Pats-Colts, Manning-Brady rivalry since 2001 then you are very familiar with the Manning face. If not, then look at the photo. That's it.

I like Manning. He's the third-best quarterback I have ever seen. (1. Montana. 2. Brady). Although I was rooting against his Colts, I was glad he finally got a ring. And also glad he didn't get a second one. I like Manning, but I like him better when he's wearing the Manning face. I hope to see a lot of the Manning face on Sunday. The weather is supposed to be lousy. That usually increases the Manning face sightings.

Bring on the rain.

One game at a time

The Cowboys and Giants meet tonight to kick off the 2012 NFL season. Even if the Sox weren't staging their own version of "The Poseidon Adventure," I would be psyched for this weekend. I don't paint my face (Not that there's anything wrong with that. No, of course not.) or throw things when the team I root for loses, but from September through (hopefully) the first Sunday in February the Pats and the NFL are a big part of life. It is the best entertainment I get all year. Even better than "Game of Thrones."

The Pats start another run at Lombardi #4. They have come soooooo close a few times. And as long as Brady and Belichick are in place, Pats fans will continue to get the best show around. We know it will end someday, so we enjoy every second of it.

Predicting at the end of summer what a team's record will at the start of winter is mostly folly. You may know what the team you root for is capable of, but it's impossible to know how good or bad other teams will be. Who thought the Niners would be so good last year? And who knows what Buffalo or Indy can do this year? But that's the fun of predicting. Everyone is right before the games begin.

Two years ago I thought the Pats would go 13-3. (Yes, optimistic after they got smoked by the Ravens in the playoffs, but if you can't be optimistic in September then when can you be?) The Pats went 14-2. Before last season I thought the Pats would go 12-4. They went 13-3. I see a trend.

WEEK 1 @ Tennessee
The Pats start on the road again. It worked out well last year with a big win in Miami. This time they take on the Titans, a team they haven't seen in a few years. Jeff Fisher was the coach back then. He's gone. As is a lot of the Titans' swagger. Tennessee finished 9-7 last year even with a very subpar performance by RB Chris Johnson, so they are no easy win. Quarterback Jake Locker starts his second season as the starter. If he rolls up more than 300 yards against the Pats D then I'll be worried. It's an interesting first week matchup. Still, it's an opener the Pats should win.

WEEK 2 vs. Arizona
Not the most exciting of home openers. But it will be the first tailgate and that's all that matters. And it will be my first chance to yell "Nice throw to Welker, Tommy!" And it will be the first home win of the year. The Cardinals are worse than the Titans. Much worse. Again, it's a team the Pats aren't very familiar with. But, again, that should not be a problem. Pats should start off 2-0. Hope it's a perfect September day.

WEEK 3 @ Baltimore
Now the fun begins. A rematch of the AFC title game that ended with the Ravens kicker missing an easy game-tying field goal. Ray Lewis and co. are still pissed. This will be a big early test for both teams. A Pats road win against Baltimore would be huge. And would give them the advantage come playoff tie-breaker time. (Yes, Week 3 is not to early to think about that stuff). T Sizzle won't be on the field terrorizing Brady. The Ravens D is old. Gronk and Hernandez are not. I like the Pats here.

WEEK 4 @ Buffalo
The Pats blew a 21-0 lead against the Bills on the road in Week 3 last year. The Bills fell apart after that while the Pats went to the Super Bowl. Buffalo landed the big free agent in Mario Williams and will enter the season with one of the best pass rushes in the game. Bill Belichick's team very rarely -- as in never -- has letdowns after big wins. But I think that happens here. Bills hand the Pats their first loss for the second year in a row.

WEEK 5 vs. Denver
I had hoped the renewal of the Manning-Brady battle would be on a beautiful early October night. Perfect for football and tailgating. Close. It's at 4 in the afternoon on Oct. 7th. That works. Tailgating begins at 9 a.m. There's no way of knowing how well Manning will be playing this early into the season. Probably pretty well. But not well enough to beat the Pats at home in the game of the week. Manning might be ready for that but the rest of the Broncos showed in the playoffs last year that they aren't. Pats get to 4-1.

WEEK 6 @ Seattle
The fourth road game in the first six weeks takes New England on their only voyage out west. Waiting for them will be old pumped-and-jacked friend Pete Carroll. Why do I think Belichick will run the score up in this one? The Pats are one of the few teams that have had some success going out to Seattle to play. This year should be no different against a weak version of the Seahawks. Something like Pats 52, Seahawks 13.

WEEK 7 vs. NY Jets
Let me start practicing... Teee-bow! Teeee-bow! Teeeeee-bow!. The beauty of it is the Foxborough fans can start chanting that while Sanchez is in the game to annoy him and then turn it into a mock cheer when Tebow comes in and throws a pick. Thanks Rex. Tebow aside, this will be a great game. Belichick and the Pats reasserted themselves against Ryan and his gang last year. Ryan will be doing a lot of talking before the game. Not after. Pats go to 6-1.

WEEK 8 @ St. Louis
I love the NFC West. Cardinals and Seahawks and Rams. Oh my. Another place the Patriots play well even when the Rams are good. This time they aren't. But they aren't playing it in St. Louis. For the second time in a few years the Pats are headed to London to play a real game. I don't think the NFL is really serious about this expanding the game to Europe nonsense. If they did they would have the Pats-Broncos game in London. Pats vs. Rams. A game only a Pats fan could love. Blowout. 7-1.

WEEK 9 Bye
As if the schedule wasn't setup perfectly enough, the Pats get the ideal middle-of-the-season week off. They'll get a chance to recover from their trip overseas and get a chance to prepare for a second half schedule that will be a little tougher than the first eight. And  I'll get a chance to gather my layers for five cold-weather home games down the stretch. Unless this global warming thing continues.

WEEK 10 vs. Buffalo
An extra week to prepare didn't work out last year when the Pats lost their next two games after the bye. A rarity in all ways during the Belichick years. The coach will be able to drive that point home and the Pats will be ready to go. Avenging their only loss up to this point, Brady, Welker, Lloyd, Gronk, and Hernandez take it up and down the field. 8-1.

WEEK 11 vs. Indianapolis
After the bye the Pats get back-to-back home games. Against Buffalo and Indy. How nice. The Colts will be in the middle of their first year with Andrew Luck as the new Peyton Manning. The Colts weren't too pretty in Manning's first year and that team had more talent around him. I don't care how much Luck the Colts have, this game should be an easy one. Yes, Pats get to 9-1.

WEEK 12 @ NY Jets
I will be staking out my seat in my sister's basement up in Maine around 7 p.m. with pie and beer in hand. I want a good view of this one. It doesn't matter if the Pats come into this Thanksgiving night game at 9-1 or 6-4, this will be another epic chapter in the rivalry. (They won't be 6-4). The Jets will either be battling with the Pats for the division lead or battling among themselves. Either way, I still (barely) give Skinny Rex enough credit to think that his team will show up to play and win at home. If they can't, then that will be the best beer and pie I've ever had. Pats slip to 9-2.

WEEK 13 @ Miami
The Pats will get a trip to South Beach to take their mind off of a tough loss. It should be just what the schedule-maker ordered. I don't know who will be playing QB for the Dolphins. I'm not even sure if they have a coach at this point. The Pats get Miami twice in the final month of the season and that's a good thing. Pats win another division game and get to 10-2.

WEEK 14 vs. Houston
The Texans are a tough team to predict for 2012. They won their first division title last year and should have taken out the Ravens in the playoffs but were on their third- or fourth-string QB and lost a tough one. Then they lost Mario Williams to the Bills. So are they still a top contender? I think so. The D is still very good and if Schaub can get back to form the offense is too. Good enough I think to sneak into Gillette and steal a game. If that happens the Pats will have lost two of their last three and the Blabosphere will be all lathered up. Pats 10-3.

WEEK 15 vs. San Francisco
The Pats will give all those lathered up blabbers and bloggers a big "calm down" the following Sunday night in a prime-time matchup with the 49ers. Another great home game. Another great December tailgate in the Enchanted Forest. And another great home win. Like last year, I expect the Pats D -- if healthy -- to begin to really figure it out right about now. Old friend Randy Moss will be among the Niners testing them. I think the Pats will pass this test with a big win. 11-3.

WEEK 16 @ Jacksonville
12-3. The Jags won five games last year and Maurice Jones-Drew had a great season. And stayed healthy. That may be asking too much from him again. The Jags should be stumbling around the NFC South basement with the Colts while the Pats should be locking up the AFC East penthouse yet again. Pats go to 12-3 and clinch another division title. Hats and T-shirts.

WEEK 17 vs. Miami
For the second year in a row the schedule makers send Miami up to Foxborough as the New Year approaches. They really don't like the Dolphins. But the Pats do. There will be lots of talk about what players should rest before the playoffs. I can tell you who will rest... no one. Belichick will start them all and the Pats will wrap up another top seed at 13-3.

Optimism. It's so easy in September. Actually, with Brady and Belichick it's pretty easy in October, November, December, and January too.

Right on schedule

Thanksgiving is probably my favorite holiday. No gifts. Lots of food and wine and laughs with the family. Pretty much stress free (except for my sister who hosts the family every year. Thanks Laurie). And football. It's pretty much the perfect day off.

Why bring up Thanksgiving on April 17th? Because the NFL has just released its 2012 regular season schedule and the Patriots will be playing against Tim Tebow and the Jets on Thanksgiving night. A perfect holiday just got that much better. I really can't wait.

The NFL has grown to such a level of all-consuming pastime that just the release of the schedule is an event and major topic of discussion. The NFL Network had a special program where they announced the games week-by-week and team-by-team as if they were revealing MegaMillion lottery winners. Major League Baseball doesn't hold a TV special to tell you the first time the Brewers visit the Pirates. No one cares. But I do care what week the Ravens visit the Steelers. The release of the NFL schedule is like one of those sneak peak hours into the upcoming season of your favorite show. Who's going to die? Who's going to screw over who? Of all the dramas and comedies on TV, the NFL is still my favorite show.

And the Patriots are still one of the stars. A look at the Pats schedule shows that the 2012 season may be the best yet. That little Thanksgiving night game being the high point.

Back before the Pats routinely won ten or more games a year, Mark and I used to call each other with Globe in hand (yes, long long ago) and go over each game on the schedule. When are they going to Miami? Do they have to go west? When is the bye? How many games do you think we can win? When is our first tailgate? Mark and I don't call each other to go over the schedule anymore. These days we text. It's not as fun.

Two years ago I went over the schedule game-by-game and thought the Pats would go 13-3. (Yes, optimistic). They went 14-2. Before last season I thought the Pats would go 12-4. They went 13-3. I see a trend.

WEEK 1 @ Tennessee
The Pats start the season on the road again. It worked out well last year with a big win in Miami. This time they take on the Titans, a team they haven't seen in a few years. Jeff Fisher was the coach back then. He's gone. As is a lot of the Titans' swagger. Tennessee finished 9-7 last year even with a very subpar performance by Chris Johnson. It's an interesting first week matchup. An opener the Pats should win as easily as last year.

WEEK 2 vs. Arizona
Not the most exciting of home openers. But it will be the first tailgate and that's all that matters. And it will be my first chance to yell "Nice throw to Welker, Tommy!" And it will be the first home win of the year. The Cardinals are worse than the Titans. Again, it's a team the Pats aren't very familiar with. But, again, that should not be a problem. Pats should start off 2-0.

WEEK 3 @ Baltimore
Now the fun begins. A rematch of the AFC title game that ended with the Ravens kicker missing an easy game-tying field goal. Ray Lewis and co. are still pissed. This will be a big early test for both teams. A Pats road win against Baltimore would be huge. And would give them the advantage come playoff tie-breaker time. (Yes, Week 3 is not to early to think about that stuff). Brady comes in with Brandon Lloyd and Anthony Gonzalez and hopefully some young defensive studs chosen on draft day. The Ravens D will be just a little bit older. I like the Pats here.

WEEK 4 @ Buffalo
The Pats blew a 21-0 lead against the Bills on the road in Week 3 last year. The Bills fell apart after that while the Pats went to the Super Bowl. Buffalo landed the big free agent in Mario Williams and will enter the season with one of the best pass rushes in the game. Bill Belichick's team very rarely -- as in never -- has letdowns after big wins. But I think that happens here. Bills hand the Pats their first loss for the second year in a row.

WEEK 5 vs. Denver
I had hoped the renewal of the Manning-Brady battle would be on a beautiful early October night. Perfect for football and tailgating. Close. It's at 4 in the afternoon on Oct. 7th. That works. Tailgating begins at 9 a.m. There's no way of knowing how well Manning will be playing this early into the season. Probably pretty well. But not well enough to beat the Pats at home in the game of the week. Manning might be ready for that but the rest of the Broncos showed in the playoffs last year that they aren't. Pats get to 4-1.

WEEK 6 @ Seattle
The fourth road game in the first six weeks takes New England on their only voyage out west. Waiting for them will be old pumped-and-jacked friend Pete Carroll. Why do I think Belichick will run the score up in this one? The Pats are one of the few teams that have had some success going out to Seattle to play. This year should be no different against a weak version of the Seahawks. Something like Pats 52, Seahawks 13.

WEEK 7 vs. NY Jets
Let me start practicing... Teee-bow! Teeee-bow! Teeeeee-bow!. The beauty of it is the Foxborough fans can start chanting that while Sanchez is in the game to annoy him and then turn it into a mock cheer when Tebow comes in and throws a pick. Thanks Rex. Your brilliance is blinding. Tebow aside, this will be a great game. Belichick and the Pats reasserted themselves against Mt Ryan and his gang last year. Ryan will be doing a lot of talking before the game. Not after. Pats go to 6-1.

WEEK 8 @ St. Louis
I love the NFC West. Cardinals and Seahawks and Rams. Oh my. Another place the Patriots play well even when the Rams are good. This time they aren't. But they aren't playing it in St. Louis. For the second time in a few years the Pats are headed to London to play a real game. I don't think the NFL is really serious about this expanding the game to Europe nonsense. If they did they would have the Pats-Broncos game in London. Pats vs. Rams. A game only a Pats fan could love. Blowout. 7-1.

WEEK 9 Bye
As if the schedule wasn't setup perfectly enough, the Pats get the ideal middle-of-the-season week off. They'll get a chance to recover from their trip overseas and get a chance to prepare for a second half schedule that will be a little tougher than the first eight. And  I'll get a chance to gather my layers for five cold-weather home games down the stretch. Unless this global warming thing continues.

WEEK 10 vs. Buffalo
An extra week to prepare didn't work out last year when the Pats lost their next two games after the bye. A rarity in all ways during the Belichick years. The coach will be able to drive that point home and the Pats will be ready to go. Avenging their only loss up to this point, Brady, Welker, Lloyd, Gronk, Gonzalez, Hernandez, and Branch take it up and down the field. 8-1.

WEEK 11 vs. Indianapolis
After the bye the Pats get back-to-back home games. Against Buffalo and Indy. How nice. The Colts will be in the middle of their first year with Andrew Luck as the new Peyton Manning. The Colts weren't too pretty in Manning's first year and that team had more talent around him. I don't care how much Luck the Colts have, this game should be an easy one. Yes, Pats get to 9-1.

WEEK 12 @ NY Jets
I will be staking out my seat in my sister's basement up in Maine around 7 p.m. with pie and beer in hand. I want a good view of this one. It doesn't matter if the Pats come into this Thanksgiving night game at 9-1 or 6-4, this will be another epic chapter in the rivalry. (They won't be 6-4). The Jets will either be battling with the Pats for the division lead or battling among themselves. Either way, I still (barely) give Big Rex enough credit to think that his team will show up to play and win at home. If they can't, then that will be the best beer and pie I've ever had.

WEEK 13 @ Miami
The Pats will get a trip to South Beach to take their mind off of a tough loss. It should be just what the schedule-maker ordered. I don't know who will be playing QB for the Dolphins. I'm not even sure if they have a coach at this point. The Pats get Miami twice in the final month of the season and that's a good thing. Pats win another division game and get to 10-2.

WEEK 14 vs. Houston
The Texans are a tough team to predict for 2012. They won their first division title last year and should have taken out the Ravens in the playoffs but were on their third- or fourth-string QB and lost a tough one. Then they lost Mario Williams to the Bills. So are they still a top contender? I think so. The D is still very good and if Schaub can get back to form the offense is too. Good enough I think to sneak into Gillette and steal a game. If that happens the Pats will have lost two of their last three and the Blabosphere will be all lathered up.

WEEK 15 vs. San Francisco
The Pats will give all those lathered up blabbers and bloggers a big "calm down" the following Sunday night in a prime-time matchup with the 49ers. Another great home game. Another great December tailgate in the Enchanted Forest. And another great home win. Like last year, I expect the Pats D -- if healthy -- to begin to begin to really figure it out right about now. Old friend Randy Moss will be among the Niners testing them. I think the Pats will pass this test with a big win. 11-3.

WEEK 16 @ Jacksonville
12-3. The Jags won five games last year and Maurice Jones-Drew had a great season. And stayed healthy. That may be asking too much from him again. The Jags should be stumbling around the NFC South basement with the Colts while the Pats should be locking up the AFC East penthouse yet again. Pats go to 12-3 and clinch another division title. Hats and T-shirts.

WEEK 17 vs. Miami
For the second year in a row the schedule makers send Miami up to Foxborough as the New Year approaches. They really don't like the Dolphins. But the Pats do. There will be lots of talk about what players should rest before the playoffs. I can tell you who will rest... no one. Belichick will start them all and they Pats will wrap up another top seed at 13-3.

Optimism. It's so easy in April. Actually, with Brady and Belichick it's pretty easy in September, November, and January too.

I can't wait for Thanksgiving.