Pick 'em

Has there ever been a more anticipated sporting event in New England? Maybe even the country? I think not.

Super Bowl XLVI between the Patriots and the Giants reminds me of the great Super Bowl matchups I grew up watching in the '70s between the Steelers and Cowboys. Even if you weren't a fan of either team you watched just to see football played at its most intense, highest (and entertaining) level. Most of the country will be rooting against the Patriots (does that make them the Cowboys now?) getting their fourth title. That's how I felt about the Steelers.

So who will win? I'm leaning towards the Patriots. As is Vegas. But the reality is this game is up for grabs. As even as they get. A toss up. A pick 'em game. These two teams have staged three very entertaining games in the past four years. Each one featuring many lead changes in the second half. There was the finale of the perfect regular season in which Brady and Moss both broke passing records to win a shootout 38-35. A month later there was that other Super Bowl that I have blocked out of my memory. And this past November there was the Giants handing the Pats their first regular season home loss in three seasons. That game featured a last-second comeback led by little Manning that was eerily familiar.

The two teams don't know how to play boring games against each other.

It's being called the rematch, a chance for the Patriots to avenge their epic loss to the Giants in Super Bowl XLII. The NFL Network has seen fit to show that game several times during the past two weeks. Thanks for that. But the two teams are very different and there's not a lot to be learned from watching that film ... except one thing. An offense that looks unstoppable can suddenly become very stoppable in a pressure game against a very good defense. I can still remember the week before that other Super Bowl when then-Giant Plaxico Burress predicted that his team would win 23-17. When Brady was informed of that he laughed. He wasn't surprised Burress predicted New York would win. Of course he would. But he was surprised at one thing. "We're only going to score 17 points?" Brady asked incredulously. He thought it was impossible for the Pats offense to be held completely in check. He learned he was wrong. As did I. We both know better this time around.

A game that you can learn a lot from is the one at Gillette in Week 9. The final score was 24-20 Giants. The score at halftime was 0-0. That's the kind of games these two teams play. Standoffs that morph into shootouts. Brady and the offense struggled -- again -- against the Giants vaunted defensive line. Then Brady, Gronk, Welker, BenJarvus, and Co. got it going and put up 20 points in a little more than a quarter. Brady finished with 342 yards passing and two touchdowns. He completed many key passes with a Giant in his face or chest. But, to quote Brady, there were times he "sucked." He threw two picks and fumbled once. Three turnovers. He got away with that two weeks ago against the Ravens. He can't get away with that again.

The matchups have been broken down, turned inside out, and X-rayed. The two teams are talented, well-coached, and disciplined. You have Brady and little Manning. Great receivers on both sides of the ball. Two not-so-great secondaries. An awesome D line and a very good D line. A very good offensive line and an average offensive line. Solid but not dominant running games. Effective special teams. It's hard to give one team a clear edge in any category. Including coaching. It's that even.

But the majority of the national media is going with the Giants. The main rationale for that is New York is the hotter team, playing the better football. The Giants are playing very good football. No doubt. But hotter? The Pats have won ten straight since their loss to the G-Men in Week 9. I would offer that they have played their best two games of the season in the playoffs. Especially on the defensive side of the ball. They shut down two of the best running attacks in the league in Denver and Baltimore. I would also offer that the Pats played their best all-around game in four years against the Ravens and would have won by 10 or more points if Brady had not made some very big mistakes. But the Pats were lucky that kick went wide left. Just as the Giants were lucky that the Niners muffed two kicks to hand them 10 points.

Both teams are playing well. Both teams have been lucky. Again... even.

My prediction for the game? Patriots 33, Giants 30.

I almost lowered that score by 10 points each after watching the replay of the November game at Gillette because the score was only 10-3 at the end of the third quarter. But I figure that these two offenses have seen these two defenses a lot recently. They know what to expect. They will be able to make some big plays. In a game like that, I like Brady and Belichick. I always will.

I was watching the local news and a report about grade-school kids getting excited for the game. The reporter put the mike in the face of a little boy wearing a Gronk jersey and asked him his prediction for the game. His eyes lit up as he said "Patriots, like by a score of 45-3!" I looked at him and laughed. He's only eight. He doesn't even remember 2008. He doesn't know what it's like to see his team lose in the big game. I hope he doesn't get to find out what that's like any time soon.