Wild and crazy stuff

If you are a fan of the NFL the next two weekends are as good as it gets. Sure, championship weekend is a lot of fun with the best of the AFC and NFC squaring off and of course Super Bowl Sunday is a national holiday. But Wild Card weekend and the Divisional Round are the two best weekends of football. Two games Saturday. Two games Sunday. Grab a beer, some snacks, and your spot on the couch.

AFC



Cincinnati (10-6) at Houston (12-4): The Texans were the team to beat in the AFC for the first three months of the season. In December, they just turned into a beaten team. They lost three of their last four games and looked bad doing it. They were stomped by playoff team New England, Minnesota, and Indy. Can they pull it together for the playoffs? I think so, but the Bengals will certainly make it difficult for them. The Texans are 8th in the league in rushing yards and seventh in the league against the run. And they are solid in the passing game. All the talk is about Matt Schaub but he is not the key. Schaub will be lucky to get out of this game alive against the Cincy pass rush led by Geno Atkins and Michael Johnson. The key is Arian Foster. He is the best player on the field for either team (slight edge over A.J. Green). If Foster can dominate on the ground and make life easy for Schaub then Houston, with the home field, should be able to get the win. Cincy's best chance rests with Green. He's one of the top playmakers in the game. The Bengals need QB Andy Dalton and Green to have a huge game. That's going to be tough to do with J.J. Watt getting in the way. Texans 27, Bengals 24.






Indianapolis (11-5) at Baltimore (10-6): You couldn't write a script better than this. Colts coach Chuck Pagano, who missed most of the season being treated for leukemia, has returned to the sideline just in time for the playoffs. Playoffs? Playoffs? Yes, last year's worst team won a very surprising eleven games and is in the playoffs. And they are playing the Ravens in Baltimore. The team that Pagano was a defensive coach with for four years. And the Ravens' Ray Lewis, who is very close with Pagano, has announced that he will retire when the Ravens season ends. Talk about your story lines. The Ravens are like the Texans, they have stumbled towards the playoffs, losing four of their last five games. And their defense is no longer elite. Old and injured, but not elite. So the question is can the Colts led by rookie QB Andrew Luck and a young group of players go on the road and beat the veteran, this-might-be-our-last-chance Ravens? I don't think so. Ray Lewis won't be winning a title in his last game, but he won't be losing at home either. Ravens 23, Colts 17.

NFC





Minnesota (10-6) at Green Bay (11-5): This is the one man vs. the team game. Vikings running back Adrian Peterson came back from major knee surgery to post one of the greatest seasons in NFL history, coming up just nine yards short of the single-season record for yards rushing. He is the Vikings. Just like Aaron Rodgers is the Packers. It's a great running game vs. a great passing game. The difference is that Rodgers has a lot more help around him than Peterson. Jennings, Cobb, Jones, Nelson, Finley. And the Green Bay defense is better than the Minnesota defense. And the game is being played at Lambeau Field. The Pack won the title two years ago. They are still a serious contender. Packers 30, Vikings 20.




Seattle (11-5) at Washington (10-6): Two of the most exciting and surprising teams in the league meet up in the first round. It should be a great game. It's a rare thing when two rookie quarterbacks play each other in the playoffs. RG3 and Russell Wilson are rookies in name only. They are the "new breed" of quarterback that can run and throw on a dime. Of course there have always been quarterbacks like that (ever hear of Randall Cunningham) but that's OK. It makes for a good headline. All the attention will be on  the quarterbacks but it's the running backs that will decide the game. The two runners that I had on my fantasy team -- Seattle's beast Marshawn Lynch vs. Washington's beast Alfred Morris -- will set the tone early and often. It's a tough decision as to which back will prevail. I'll go with the home team again. Redskins 21, Seahawks 20.

Coach bags

The end of the NFL regular season brings with it two things ... the start of the playoffs with Wild Card weekend and the end of some careers with the coaching firing squad. The Monday after Week 17 is often littered with coaches canned for either one disastrous season or a string of bad ones. It's a reminder for Pats' fans just how lucky we are to have Bill Belichick.

There's usually two or three coaches fired on Monday morning, but yesterday there were seven coaches sent packing. A surprising number and a few surprising names on the list:

• Andy Reid, Eagles, after 14 seasons.
• Ken Whisenhunt, Cardinals, after 6 seasons.
• Chan Gailey, Bills, after 3 seasons.
• Lovie Smith, Bears, after 9 seasons.
• Pat Shurmur, Browns, after 2 seasons.
• Romeo Crennel, Chiefs, after just 1 season.
• Norv Turner, Chargers, after 6 seasons.

That's a lot of coaches. There were also a few GMs canned (like Tannenbaum of the Jets) but who really cares about GMs getting fired unless it's your team?

Looking at the list of coaches fired, it breaks down into two categories. The first category is guys who have been with their team for a long time and who have had some success but their teams were clearly heading in the wrong direction. The other category are guys who have only been in the job for a short time and were obviously bad choices when they were hired.

Let's take the second category first. Pat Shurmur was hired by the Browns two years ago billed as one of the games best young offensive minds. He played offensive line at Michigan State and he learned NFL coaching under Andy Reid for 10 years. Not a bad teacher. He moved to St. Louis to be offensive coordinator in 2009 and did that for two years before getting the Cleveland job. Two years as a coordinator is not nearly enough experience to become an NFL head coach unless you had done some head coaching in college. Shurmur had not. But the Browns gave him the job anyway. Which is fine. Why not take a chance on a young guy? Tennessee did that with Jeff Fisher in 1994 and he turned out to be a great coach. But if you are going to hire a guy like Shurmur, you have make a commitment to him for more than two years. Otherwise, why bother?  And that's why the Browns have been bad for years. Eric Mangini ... two years. Romeo Crennel ... three years. If you are only going to give a guy two or three years to get the team headed in the right direction then don't bother hiring him. It's just stupid.

Speaking of stupid... the Chiefs hiring of Crennel and the Bills hiring of Chan Gailey fit that description because they both had head coaching jobs before and had proven they were not head coaching material. Not even close. They are both good guys and great coordinators. But there should be restraining orders preventing them from getting any where near a head coaching job. And yet the Chiefs and the Bills gave them another shot. And not surprisingly, their teams underachieved. Especially the Bills. If Buffalo hires a real coach for next season, with the talent they have, they could win ten games. But since it's Ralph Wilson and the Bills there's a good chance they will mess it up.

My guess is the Bills will probably hire one of the other guys fired yesterday. I'm really hoping it's Norv Turner. It would be great to have Norv in the division. Don't get me wrong. I think Norv is actually a pretty good coach. But he's one of those good coaches whose teams always make crucial mistakes. Which I guess means he's not really a good coach. It's tricky. Same thing with Andy Reid. He's a very good coach. But you just know his team is going to blow it. Reid took Philly to four straight NFC title games, the first three times his team fell flat on its face. The fourth time the Eagles finally won only to lose the Super Bowl to the Patriots. Reid will get another job very quickly. He learned from Mike Holmgren. He's a winner. But it was time for a change after 14 years in Philly. I don't want to see him in Buffalo.

The two other guys fired, Lovie Smith and Ken Whisenhunt, were a bit of a surprise. Smith's Bears went 10-6. It's very rare when a coach gets fired after a winning season. But they were 7-1 halfway through the season and went 3-5 the rest of the way. The Bears were not as good as 7-1 and not as bad as 3-5. They were 10-6 and considering Jay "Goober" Cutler is their QB that's pretty good. Lovie took his team to two NFC title games and the Super Bowl in 2007. But the Bears have only made the playoffs once in the last six years. That will eventually get you fired no matter how nice a guy you are and how much your players love you.  It's the same with Whisenhunt. The Bill Cowher-trained coach got off to a great start with Arizona, taking the team to the Super Bowl in his third season (2009), But since then the Cards have gone 5-11, 8-8, and 5-11. They started off 4-0 this year, including a win at Gillette in Week 2, but they lost nine in a row after that. I think the Cards should have stuck with him another year because it looked like he was building something there with a tough young defense. But that's why teams like the Cards are usually not very good. They are not patient. So now they will be looking to start over.

There was one name not on the list of coaches canned yesterday. Rex Ryan. I'm pretty happy about that. For the second year in a row Ryan's team not only missed the playoffs, but the season ended with the locker room is complete disarray. A team always reflects its coach. And the mess that are the Jets is a mirror image of Skinny Rex. I can't wait to hear what he has to say about what happened this year. But I'll have to wait a while because he decided not to hold the NFL mandated end-of-the-season press conference and head to the Bahamas. That's right. Rex Ryan passed up an opportunity to talk to the media. I know. I can't believe it either. But don't worry. Talk he will. And at some point in his press conference he will be asked about next season and he will make some statement about catching the Patriots and winning the AFC East. That's what I love about Rex. He never learns. And I'm glad his name wasn't on the list.

Bye-ing their time

WEEK 17
Patriots 28, Dolphins 0 (12/30/'12): Some Sundays are just better than others. After a tough, sloppy loss to the Niners and a just sloppy win over the Jags, the Patriots came out with a focus in the season finale and took the game to Miami in the frigid evening at Gillette. The solid 28-0 win, combined with Indy knocking of Houston, lifted the Pats into the second seed in the AFC and gave them a week off before a home playoff game. One home win and they're in the AFC title game. Again.

It was a team win, something that was much needed after a few shaky weeks. Brady looked playoff ready, throwing for 284 yards and two touchdowns and spreading the ball around. Gronk came back from his broken forearm and caught a touchdown. Stevan Ridley got back on track with two touchdowns and NO fumbles. It was a workman-like job by the offense.

But it was the defense that set the tone and controlled the game. Granted, Miami is not the strongest team offensively. But the Pats held them to just 256 total yards. If the D can play like that in the playoffs then the Pats are going to be tough to beat. Rookie Justin Francis, who has been getting more playing time down the stretch, had three of the team's seven sacks yesterday. Steve Gregory had a nice pick and Kyle Arrington even made some tackles. Ninko limped off the field with what looked like a leg or hip injury. Losing him for the playoffs would be a big loss. But if Ninko is OK and corners Talib and Dennard are healthy then the young, fast, and tough defense -- all led by Big Vince -- should be able to do its part in the playoffs.

As Brady said after the game ... "We’ve won 10 of 11, so it’s pretty good. We were 2-3 at one point, [and we] had some tough games early in the year. We won 10 of 11 and the only loss was against a pretty good football team (San Fran) where we turned it over four times. So if we don’t turn it over four times, I like our chances."

Exactly. If the Patriots can play three games without a turnover they have a very good chance to hoist that elusive fourth Lombardi trophy. A very good chance.

Week 16 rewind

I said I wasn't going to look back at last Sunday's Pats uninspiring win at Jacksonville to find the good and the bad. And I'm not. But I just can't help looking back at another game from Week 16 involving my other favorite team ... the Jets.

Rex Ryan and "the best team he's ever had" took one step closer to total laughingstock with a 27-17 loss at home to the soon-to-be-fired Norv Turner's Chargers. But -- as usual with Skinny Rex's team -- it wasn't what happened on the field that was the most laughable. It was what happened off the field.

Ryan decided -- again -- that he had seen enough of starting quarterback Mark Sanchez. That's the Mark Sanchez that the team handed a large three-year contract extension before the start of the season. Right before they traded to get blessed backup Tim Tebow. Ryan had pulled Sanchez during a game two weeks ago but Tebow was injured so he inserted third-stringer Greg McElroy. The kid looked like a third-stringer but the Jets got a rare victory so Rex had to make a decision. Go with the kid or go back to Sanchez? Ryan, wisely, went back to the guy he's paying millions. But that ended for good when Sanchez played one of the worst games I've ever seen a quarterback play. He threw four picks against the lowly Titans to make official what everyone else has known for weeks. The Jets won't be going to the playoffs again.

So Rex decided it was time for a change at quarterback. And this time Tebow was healthy. Since they made a big deal out of signing him it seemed like an easy choice. Sure, everyone knows Tebow isn't going to throw for 300 yards and three touchdowns. But he knows how to make plays and he knows how to win. He did it in college and he did it last year with Denver. And he's fun to watch. So give him a shot. Obvious. Right?

Well, not to Rex. He decided to go back to McElroy. And you know who wasn't happy about that? Tim Tebow. Mr. Turn the Other Cheek decided he'd had enough of the Jets and their three-ring nonsense. So he decided that if he wasn't considered good enough to start over some guy named McElroy then he wasn't interested in running the lame wildcat plays that offensive coordinator Tony Sparano likes to use him in. And he told his coaches just that.

So the Jets went up against San Diego with some guy named McElroy as their starter and some guy named Jeremy Kerley as their backup/wildcat quarterback. No wonder Fireman Ed quit. And to no one's surprise the Jets offense was inept again.

If you are a Pats fan then its required reading to go to the websites of the Daily News and the Post on Mondays. It's high entertainment. ESPNNewYork had a good piece on the quarterback mess. A mess that should get someone fired. First should be Sparano. He is officially the most overrated coach in the league. It also might be time to take a look at the GM.

But I sure hope it's not Skinny Rex. He's just too much fun. And I'm hoping after his team loses the season finale to Buffalo -- and it will because they can't beat anyone that can score more than 20 points -- that he will be so depressed at his team's 6-10 record that he goes on a goddamn snack binge and returns to being Rex with a big gut and a bigger mouth. I miss that Rex.

A good reminder

WEEK 15
49ers 41, Patriots 34 (12/16/'12): After a week of the experts putting the Patriots in New Orleans for Super Bowl XLVII, the San Francisco 49ers reminded everyone that the NFL is a week-to-week deal. Following their beat-down of the Texans on Monday night, the Patriots were at the top of almost everyone's power rankings and the Dans of the world were booking flights for the Big Easy. Well, in the NFL nothing is easy.

That was obvious with about ten minutes left to play in the third quarter and the scoreboard reading Niners 31, Patriots 3. Not only were the Patriots getting beaten badly at home, they were getting beaten badly at home in the cold rain. In December. A very rare sight around these parts. The Niners were using a bruising defense and an opportunistic offense to knock the defending AFC champs around their own building. And the Pats were making it easier for them by piling mistake on top of mistake on top of mistake. In the cold rain,

It was ugly. Randy Moss was catching touchdown passes. Sophomores Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen were coughing balls up. Brady was getting sacked and harassed. Welker and Hernandez were getting beat up on every play. Here's how the Pat's first nine drives ended... punt, punt, interception, punt, fumble, field goal, punt, fumble, interception. Unstoppable? Hardly. It was about as bad as the Pats' offense with Brady has ever looked. But -- as we always do -- most people in the crowd felt that if Brady could just put a drive together that they could quickly get back in the game.

That's exactly what the offense did. In fact, the offense put together four straight touchdown drives to change a 31-3 game against the best defense in the league into a 31-31 battle with about eight minutes left to play. There are few offenses in the league that could have done that. Unfortunately ... the Pats had a few more mistakes left in them. Moments after Woody slammed the ball to the ground after scoring the tying touchdown, the Pats' special teams took a little nap and allowed kick returner LaMichael James a ridiculous 62-yard run back all the way to Pats' 38-yard line. One play later, Colin Kaepernick hit Michael Crabtree on a quick pass to the sideline and cornerback Kyle Arrington whiffed -- again -- on the tackle and Crabtree took it in for an easy touchdown. A great comeback was gone. As was the Pats' chance to control their shot at a first-round bye.

That's how it goes in the NFL. One week a team looks unbeatable. The next week it can't get out of its own way. That's what makes each week so important ... and so much fun. And that's what will make the playoffs even more fun when they start next month. Both the Patriots and the Niners will be there. And they will both have to play better than they did last night in the cold December rain.

Monday Monday

TALES FROM THE TAILGATE
Cowboys 35, Patriots 21 (9/21/'81): Are you ready for some football? Of course you are. The Patriots host the Texans tonight in what is expected to be a warm -- but rainy -- night at Gillette. I hate tailgating in the rain more than anything. But nothing can dampen a Monday Night battle for supremacy in the AFC.

In 2012 the NFL plays on Thursday nights, Sunday nights, Saturday evenings, and of course from sunrise to sunset on Sunday. But Monday Night is still special. It all started in the 1970s to promote the merged AFL and NFL. It brought football to a new level and it just keeps getting bigger and bigger. Even when your team is mediocre (Jets), it's always fun to settle in on the first weeknight, open a beer, and watch them play.

The Patriots have played 44 MNF games. They have won 22. They have lost 22. Like most Patriots stats, the majority of those wins have come in the last 20 years. In fact, the team has played 20 of those 44 games in just the past decade. Bill Belichick is 15-5 in those games. I have enjoyed some great nighttime football during that time. My favorite is still the 2010 game against Rex Ryan and the Jets. The Pats were 9-2. The Jets were 9-2. Not-so-skinny Rex was talking about a new sheriff in the AFC East. Final score ... Patriots 45, Jets 3.

The Pats have played at least one Monday night game for eleven straight years. It comes with the territory when you are a championship contender year after year. And whether at home or on the road they are among the most anticipated games on the schedule. But before Belichick and Brady (and Parcells) turned the franchise's fortunes around, the Pats were not regulars on MNF. In fact, after a particularly ugly night at the old stadium in 1981 the Pats (more to the point: their drunken fans) were banned from Monday Night games for years.

1981. Ron Erhardt. "Call me Fargo." 2-14. I was a 19-year-old fan who a mere five years earlier had become hooked on the team watching Steve Grogan, Russ Francis, Steve Nelson, John Hannah, Stanley Morgan. and a group of entertaining, tough players make the playoffs and almost knock off the eventual champs the Raiders. The Pats fired their coach (Chuck Fairbanks) before the playoffs the next season and went into a downward spiral that hit rock bottom on a cool, late September night at what was then known as Schaefer Stadium. A perfect night for tailgating. A perfect night for drinking. For drinking a lot.

The Patriots started the season 0-2 but were ahead of the Dallas Cowboys 21-17 in the third quarter. Matt Cavanaugh was the team's quarterback and he made Zolak look competent. Cavanaugh threw four picks and the Cowboys scored 18 straight points to win 35-21. It was ugly on the field. And uglier off the field.

Schaefer (later Sullivan and Foxboro) was known as a tough stadium. It was not a place to bring your kids. Or you girlfriend. Or your doberman. It was like watching the game at the corner bar. There were three fights for every touchdown. It seemed that as much beer was dumped on people as it was consumed. Of course that's impossible but it often felt that way. As Rodney Dangerfield would say... "What a rough crowd." On that night in 1981, as the Pats blew the game to Dallas and fell to 0-3, the rough crowd turned into a raging mob. The final stats on the game say Cowboy great Tony Dorsett rushed for 162 yards and the Patriots finished with seven turnovers. The final stats in the stands (and the dirt parking lot) say 100 people were kicked out of the game, about 60 people were arrested, 35 ended up in the hospital, 1 cop's gun was stolen, and 1 person in a wheelchair was assaulted.

The mayhem was so bad that ABC Television decided they weren't going to be bringing their MNF crew to lovely Schaefer Stadium for a while. Turns out it was 14 years before the Patriots played another Monday night game at home. Fourteen years. It was a different time for sure. I was in the stands that Monday night in 1981. I got out alive. Someone else was in the stands that night. Robert Kraft. He too got out alive. And something tells me it was that night he decided he would one day buy the franchise and make it so that boxing skills were not required to attend a Patriots game.

Thirty years later it is a great place to watch a game. And now a lot of those games are on Monday night. I think you had to be there on that night in 1981 to truly appreciate what Mr. Kraft has accomplished.

Week 12 rewind

When you beat your division rival 49-19 at their place on Thanksgiving night and no one gets hurt there's nothing to put in the weekly "bad" category. It really was all good. The only thing missing was Gronk joining Brady and Vince chomping on a turkey leg after the game.

So there's really not much need to look back at last Thursday's game against the Jets except when you are feeling blue and need a good laugh. Then you should look back at the Sanchez play. Other than that it's time to look ahead to the final five games of the regular season. The division is just about wrapped up but there is still a very tight battle for the second seed and a first-round bye.

Let's assume that the 10-1 Texans hold on to the top spot in the AFC. It's a pretty good bet. The question is who will be #2? At the moment it is the 9-2 Ravens. Right on their heels are the 8-3 Pats and 8-3 Broncos. How important is it to get the two seed, a week off, and home playoff game? Well, if you ask the New York Giants it's not that important at all. But the odds of making the AFC title game are much better if all you have to do is win one home game to get there. If the Giants want to try to win another Super Bowl by going 9-7 and playing three road playoff games let them.

The Ravens have stolen several close wins (like Sunday's game against the Chargers), but considering the number of key injuries the team has had on defense their 9-2 record is impressive. They hold the tie-breaker against the Pats with their win earlier in the year so they really have a two-game lead over them. That's a problem. But the Pats beat the Broncos so they have the tie-breaker against them. If all three teams ended up tied then it would go to the "conference record" tie-breaker. Right now the Pats and Ravens only have one conference loss while the Broncos have two. Who will blink first?

Here are the remaining games for each team. The games listed in green are the ones where the chance of winning has to be considered better than 80 percent. The games in red are the ones where the chance of winning is no better than 50 percent. The games in yellow are the ones that fall in between:

                    PATRIOTS                     RAVENS                        BRONCOS
Wk 13          @-Miami                       H-Pittsburgh                H-Tampa Bay
Wk 14          H-Houston                    @-Washington            @-Oakland
Wk 15          H-San Fran                   H-Denver                     @-Baltimore  
Wk 16          @-Jacksonville            H-NY Giants                H-Cleveland
Wk 17          H-Miami                        @-Cincy                        H-Kansas City

Let's go week by week.

Week 13: This weekend each team has a tough -- but winnable -- game. The Pats go down to Miami where they have had their problems over the years. And Miami is coming off a strong game against Seattle. But can the Dolphins keep pace with Brady and the offense? No. The Ravens host their arch rivals the Steelers. Pittsburgh is banged up and coming off an ugly loss to Cleveland. The Steelers will be focused and motivated to save their playoff hopes. But is it enough to go into Baltimore and win on the road? No. The Broncos host the 6-5 Bucs. Denver had problems against the worst-in-the-league Chiefs last Sunday while Tampa almost beat the 10-1 Falcons. The Bucs have the best run D in the league. I think Tampa forces Manning to make some mistakes and pulls off the upset. Three very close games that really could go either way. (Ravens 10-2, Patriots 9-3, Broncos 8-4).

Week 14: The Pats are at a severe disadvantage this week. Even though they are the only one of the three contenders at home, they have to play the Texans on Monday Night Football. It is the biggest test for the Pats this year. Houston is third in the league in total offense with a balanced attack. But the Pats are first in the league. It's on the other side of the ball that the Texans have the advantage. They are 6th in total defense. The Pats are way down the list at 27th. The Pats have to have this game to get the second seed and I think they rise to the occasion and get it. They are more accustomed to the big stage than the Texans. But confidence is not high. It's definitely a "red" game. The Ravens and Broncos go on the road against two average teams. The Ravens take on RG3 and the Skins while Manning faces off against Oakland. Those are tough road games and its very possible one of them (the Ravens) could stumble. But for the sake of argument let's say the Pats win a huge home game and the Ravens and Broncos eke out tough road wins. (Ravens 11-2, Patriots 10-3, Broncos 9-4).

Week 15: This is the week that will decide it. The Broncos go to Baltimore and if the Ravens can win they pretty much lock up the second seed because they will have beaten both the Pats and the Broncos. But what if Manning and the Denver offense can exploit the aging Raven D and get the win? That will hand the Ravens their third loss and more importantly their second in the conference. And if the Pats actually did beat the Texans the week before then all they would need to do is win a home game to pull into a tie with two weeks to go. Problem is that home game is against the San Francisco 49ers. The team with the best defense in the game. And the best rushing attack. It should be a heck of Sunday Night game. But can the Pats beat the Texans and the Niners in back-to-back weeks? I don't think so. And if they are going to lose one then the one against the NFC team is the one to lose. (Ravens, 11-3, Patriots 10-4, Broncos 10-4).

Week 16: The Ravens are at a disadvantage this week. They get the defending champion Giants at home while the Pats go on the road against the Jags and the Broncos host the Browns. Those are pretty close to sure wins for the Pats and Broncos. I think the long-haul of the season begins to catch up with the Ravens and they get beat by Little Manning and the Giants who will be fighting to win their division. Three-way tie with one week to go for the two seed. (Ravens 11-4, Patriots 11-4, Broncos 11-4).

Week 17: The Ravens are again at a disadvantage, only because the Pats and Broncos have pretty easy games at home to finish out the season. The Pats host Miami on what will probably be a frigid Saturday afternoon. The Broncos have an even easier game, hosting the soon-to-have-the-#1-pick Chiefs. Those are very likely wins, putting each team at 12-4. The Ravens have to go to Cincinnati to play the Bengals who will probably be battling for one of the wild card spots. Let's say Andy Dalton and AJ Green stay hot and hand the Ravens their third straight loss to finish 11-5. The Pats and Broncos finish tied but the Pats would get the second seed because they have the head-to-head victory. (Patriots 12-4 and the #2 seed, Broncos 12-4, Ravens 11-5).

That's one possible outcome. Of course it really is impossible to pick a winner in Broncos-Ravens, or Broncos-Bucs, or Ravens-Giants, or Pats-Niners. That's what will make these last few weeks so much fun. The Patriots, Broncos, and Ravens will lock up their division in the next two weeks, but that doesn't mean they won't have a lot to play for down the stretch. A week off and a home playoff game means a lot to all three.

Ed is O-U-T Out Out Out

Just when it looked like things couldn't get any worse for the New York Jets ... the latest news is really bad.

Fireman Ed, the team's unofficial mascot and the head shouter of the J-E-T-S chants that are so important to the team's success, is resigning his post leading the cheers for Rex Ryan's "best team I've ever had." What's next?

Fireman Ed (a.k.a. Ed Anzalone) said he wasn't taking off his helmet because the team he roots for was on the verge of becoming a laughingstock. Nope. He said he was giving up his alter ego because of the crap he was getting from other, more disgruntled Jets fans. "It's about the nastiness," Ed said. "I just think society in general ... there's no respect at all. I don't want to put up with that from people taking it out on me anymore." You know the sound you are about to hear is your franchise hitting rock bottom when the big news is that your not-really-our-mascot mascot is quitting.

And it was big news in New York. Amazingly.

Kristian Dyer wrote a column on CBS/New York that you have to read to believe. Here's the best part... "Jets games will never be the same. In all of American sports, traditions like the one that Anzalone carried on at Jets games are hard to come by, as he made going to a game a different experience. He brought the crowd to life, creating moments that were iconic and inspired goosebumps, something very unique in the fishbowl stadium experience at the Meadowlands. What 'Fireman Ed' did was unite a fan base that only seemed too eager to jeer rather than cheer, to tear down rather than build up."

If the most memorable moment of going to a Jets game was some guy in a helmet barking at the crowd to cheer louder, well... that doesn't say too much about the action on the field. There were so many stories about Ed quitting -- pro and con -- that there are too many to list. It seemed everyone had an opinion.

Including, of course, Rex Ryan.

When asked about the big news during his press conference Skinny Rex had this to say ... "I love that guy's passion and the energy he would bring. If he could play linebacker or whatever I would use him." No. Really. He said that. And he wasn't really joking.

It made me wonder what Belichick would say if he was asked about something so trivial at a press conference just a few days after his team was humiliated on national television and had its playoff hopes pretty much snuffed out.

"I don't have any information on that. Our focus is on the Dolphins. We're not worrying about things we can't control, like if Fireman Ed is going to wear his helmet or not. We'll play with the fans who give us the best chance to win."

Week 8 rewind

5-3. That's where the Pats stand after eight games. That's exactly where the Pats were after eight games last year. They won their next ten games to get to the Super Bowl. I wouldn't bet on the Pats going on a ten game winning streak this year but I sure would bet on them winning another AFC East title. Especially if they play like they did Sunday in London.

GOOD

• The Gronk is back. Rob Gronkowski caught touchdown passes #6 and #7. He had eight receptions for 146 yards. And he had two ridiculously Gronked-up spikes. Gronk is back. He's only the best offensive weapon in football. And the most entertaining.   
• Stevan Ridley is leading the AFC in rushing. That's right. Stevan Ridley has more rushing yards through eight weeks than Arian Foster, Darren McFadden, and Ray Rice. Meanwhile, my guy BenJarvus is doing nothing in Cincy. Isn't Belichick sick of being right? The running combo of Ridley, Bolden, Vereen, and Woody is the big difference in this year's Pats.
• Special teams play -- often overlooked -- is starting to be a factor. McCourty's touchdown return against the Jets was one of the five biggest plays of the season so far.  He may not be able to play corner any more but he can return kicks. Gosty made two huge field goals against NY and his kickoffs are often going going gone. Then there's Zoltan. The third-year punter is only 29th in average. That needs to get better. But he's also third in the league in the number of punts inside the 20. And that's impressive considering he doesn't punt as much as most other guys because he plays on the team with the highest scoring offense. 
• Of all the stats that are cited in the NFL -- QB rating, passing yards allowed, sacks, sacks allowed -- the most important one is turnover ratio. "Take care of the ball" is rule one two and three. The Patriots are following all three rules. They are tied for first in turnover ratio at +13. The defense leads the league with 11 fumble recoveries. 

BAD

• Just one thing. What else? The pass defense. On the Rams' opening drive the defense gave up a 50-yard bomb. It didn't look good. It still doesn't. The Pats are among the worst in the league in giving up big pass plays. Ras-I Dowling is done for the year. Chung and Gregory have missed most of the first half. McCourty looks better at safety than corner -- again. But there's hope. Chung and Gregory should be back soon and their veteran presence at safety should help. Youngsters Ebner, Dennard, and Wilson have made some mistakes but when the veterans come back the experience they have gained in the first half should only help down the stretch.

5-3. Not great. But it's only October. The time for great isn't now. It's in January and February. The Giants have taught everyone that lesson.

Mind the gap

WEEK 8
Just three minutes into today's game, Rams quarterback Sam Bradford let a bomb go deep down the middle of the field and 50 yards later it landed gently in the hands of Chris Givens who was -- of course -- a step behind safeties Tavon Wilson and Devin McCourty. Touchdown. It looked just like the end of the Seattle game. Not even the most optimistic Pats fan (me) could deny at that moment that the team was in trouble.

Tom Brady knew it too. He came out and responded, leading the offense on a quick and impressive eight-play drive that ended with him hitting Brandon Lloyd on a perfect corner pattern to tie the game. Brady was more fired up than usual as he smashed helmets after the drive. Brady knew it.

The offense scored touchdowns on its first five drives on the way to a 45-7 blowout in merry old England. And after giving up that early touchdown, the defense had its best game in years. The Pats head into the break at 5-3 with a chance to get healthy and get ready for a second half loaded with home games. The team could be in a better position if they hadn't let leads against the Ravens and Seahawks slip away, but all considered they are in a pretty good spot to battle Baltimore and Denver for the second seed.

Many in the Blabosphere will spend the next two weeks reminding everyone that the Rams aren't that good. That would be the same blabbers who were warning everyone that the Rams should not be taken lightly. That's what makes this win so encouraging. Just like the opener against a decent Tennessee team. If the Pats are truly one of the best teams in the league -- and they are -- then they should be able to dominate the lesser teams. Not always. But more often than not. That's the sign of a real contender. The gap between most NFL teams is not that great. But the gap between the contenders and the rest of the league is bigger. When one of the better teams plays up to its capabilities the lesser opponent really doesn't stand much of chance. As they say in London ... mind the gap.

The Pats get a week off and then play back-to-back home games against Buffalo and Indy. Two more teams that are decent but should not be able to stay with Brady and the Pats -- if Brady and the Pats play like they did today.

Time to enjoy the bye week. No Pats game next week? Hello, Red Zone. Here I come.

It never gets old

WEEK 7
Patriots 29, Jets 26 OT (10/21/'12): I love the walk into Gillette before a big game. There's a buzz -- literally -- in the crowd as thousands of Gronks, Bradys, and Welkers make their way to their seats or the taps. You can feel the anticipation in the air as the loudspeakers blast Creed or U2 or Springsteen. Especially on a near-perfect fall day like yesterday.

The start of the day was a lot of fun. Mark and I were the first ones into the Enchanted Forest and cocktails were served shortly after 11. The end of the day was a lot of fun. A sack of Sanchez and fumble recovery by Ninko for the overtime victory and a tailgate dinner of roast pork with homemade apple sauce. In between the tailgates? There was sure a lot of fun. And a lot of frustration. But that's sports.

The Blabosphere will be in full "Pats suck" mode this week. Guaranteed. The Pats pull out a thrilling 29-26 back-and-forth overtime win -- stealing a victory right out of the mouth of Skinny Rex and the Jets -- and everyone's unhappy? Sure, the team has problems. What team in the NFL this season doesn't? And don't say 6-0 Atlanta because they do. The Pats coughed up another lead. Gave up too many yards passing. Made some key mistakes. But they battled all the way and when it looked like they had handed the game to the Jets (which prompted Ryan to yell "Oh ... my ... God!" so loud you could hear him across the field) they pulled themselves together and marched down the field to tie the game with no time left on the clock. If you can't enjoy a game like yesterday's then I'm not sure why you are watching. And no doubt about it, if they lost it would have been a crusher. But it still would have been a great game ... and a great day.

Tailgating just never gets old. I was up at 8:30 in the morning for the 4:25 kickoff. I picked up Mark and his portable cooler loaded with pulled pork and homemade coleslaw at the train station in Providence. A stop at Seven Stars bakery for the bread for the pulled pork sandwiches and we were on our way to the Enchanted Forest lot south of the stadium. We pulled in and headed to the very back behind a large rock formation we have dubbed Rock Ridge. Shep and Matt soon joined us and we were enjoying the beautiful weather and the pulled pork that came up on the morning Amtrak from New York. There's nothing like a nearly five-hour tailgate to get you ready to watch some football.

And we sure got some great -- and bad -- football to watch. The Pats got the ball and were moving with the no huddle but a drop by Lloyd stalled the drive and the Pats punted. The Jets then took the ball and drove 76 yards on 11 plays, getting five first downs along the way. It was impressive. The crowd was not happy. The Pats offense had punted and the defense had allowed a touchdown. Apparently the Jets had nothing to do with it. It was all mistakes by the Pats.

There was a real "uh-oh" mood in the crowd. And then the Pats responded by scoring the next 16 points and, of course, everyone was happy again. First came a 104-yard kickoff return by Devin McCourty. A kick return for a touchdown is one of the most thrilling plays to experience in the stadium. You can really see the play unfolding because you can see the whole field. As the hole opened up the crowd began to roar and when McCourty burst through that hole the place erupted. McCourty passed in front our seats at midfield and it looked like two Jets were going to catch him. It was at that moment that he turned on the jets and left them in the dust.

The Jets got the ball at their own 10 and went three-and-out as big Kyle Love got Sanchez for the first of four sacks for the D. Brady got the ball at the Pats 42 and went right back into the no huddle. This time there were no drops and Brady and Gronk finished it off with a great 17-yard touchdown pass. Brady's throw under pressure was perfect and Gronk's juggling catch was outstanding. The teams exchanged punts and Mesko pinned the Jets deep again. On first down Big Vince smashed through the line and forced a fumble and Sanchez had to kick the ball out of the end zone for a safety. A kick return. A great touchdown pass. A great punt. A safety. 16-7. Ya. The Pats aren't making plays.

The Jets mounted two long field goal drives to cut the score to 16-13 with nine minutes to play in the third. Sure, the Pats D failed to make the stop. But Sanchez and the Jets' offense also made some pretty impressive plays. The Jets may have been 10 1/2 point underdogs (which seemed crazy), but they are a good team and they were playing good, tough football.

Brady and the offense got the ball at their own 17 needing to respond. And respond they did. A nearly seven-minute, 15-play drive that mixed the run and pass beautifully and ended with Gronk catching his second touchdown. The Pats offense can't make the big drive when they need it anymore? 15-plays. 83 yards. Nearly seven-minutes. 23-13.

The Jets answered back. How did they do it? Well, the last time I checked they have NFL caliber players on offense too. How come when the Pats score it's because the offense is unstoppable? But when the other team scores its always because the Pats' D is incompetent? Sometimes the other team makes plays too. Sanchez led his team from his own eight-yard line and drove 14-plays for a huge touchdown to cut the score to 23-20 with just 5:44 left to play. What a crazy 5:44 it was.

The Pats got the ball back and had another chance to make the game-closing drive. They couldn't do it. It started off well when Brady hit Lloyd for a quick first down, but a late flag from the ref 20 yards away called Lloyd for pushing off and put the Pats in a 1st-and-20. There was no replay at Gillette (Why Mr. Kraft? Why?) but I have since seen the replay and it was a crap call. The penalty killed the drive and the Pats punted. The Jets got the ball with 4:19 left at their own 35. OK. Another chance for the defense to make a game-closing stop. They couldn't do it. The Jets drove for the tying field goal. The Jets were making all the plays. The Pats needed to make something happen to save the game. As McCourty took the kickoff out of his end zone Mark said "Hang on to the ball, son." Two seconds later the ball went flying across the field and the Jets recovered. Ryan almost choked with delight as he ran around yelling "Oh ... my ... God!" That's what everyone in the crowd was saying too. Just quieter. 23-23 with 2:01 to play and the Pats had just coughed it up at their own 18. Talk about a crushing defeat.

Tebow came on to the field and took a direct snap and ran for two yards and was stuffed. Two minute warning. The Pats still had three timeouts. The crowd started to realize that if they could hold the Jets to a field goal that Brady would still have a chance to tie it up or win it. It was right about this moment that the Pats began to make all the plays. That's right. With two minutes to play the Pats pulled themselves together and made play after play after play in all three phases of the game. It was as clutch a finish as the team has had in a while. If your response is they shouldn't have been in that position in the first place you are disregarding the fact that there was another team on the field making plays too.

The Jets got stuffed for a yard on second down and then on 3rd-and-7 rookie D'onta Hightower chased Sanchez out of the pocket and then chased him down for a sack. Big play on D. The Jets kicked the field goal but Brady and the offense still had 1:37 left to play and a timeout. The Pats have run the two-minute offense maybe better than anyone the last five years. But mostly at the end of the first half. This time they did it at the end of the game, when it really counts.

Brady to Gronk for 15 yards. It took eight guys to stop Gronk. Brady to Gronk again for 12. Brady to Woody on a short pass that Woody took for 20. It was Woody playing the role of Kevin Faulk to perfection. Brady to Woody again for seven to the Jets' 25 with just five seconds left. Timeout. Now it was time for Gostkowski -- who missed a game-winner in the homer opener -- to step up and make a 43-yarder to send the game into overtime. He nailed it. The crowd cheered with an equal amount of excitement and exhaustion. 

The Pats won the toss and Gillette got its first look at the new overtime rules. Score a touchdown and the game is over. Score a field goal and the Jets get a shot to win it or tie it and keep overtime going. (It's not as complicated as it sounds.) The talk in the crowd was do you risk going no huddle in OT? No huddle is great but it can sometimes cause mistakes and turnovers. What to do? Belichick and McDaniels knew what to do. No huddle. Brady to Woody. Brady to Branch. Woody run. Welker for 13 on 2nd-and-9. Brady to Hernandez. Woody run. Brady to Welker for 12 down to the Jets' 34. Brady to Woody for four. Brady and Hernandez couldn't connect on third down so Gosty came out to hit another huge field goal. This time a 48-yarder in overtime. He nailed it.

The Jets got the ball. The conversation in the crowd returned to the OT rules. "How does it work, again?" So like I said ... if the Jets score a touchdown they win the game. If they get a field goal then overtime continues and the next team that scores any points wins. If the Pats stop them on downs or get a turnover ... Pats win. Sanchez (with the help of a holding call on 3rd-and-5) moved the Jets to their 40-yard line. On first down Big Vince stopped Joe McKnight in his tracks, creating a 2nd-and-10. Sanchez dropped back to pass, Jermaine Cunningham broke through the line and grabbed at Sanchez's feet making him stumble backwards. Just before he hit the ground Ninko blasted him and knocked the ball loose. Ninko rolled over Sanchez and got the ball. Fumble! It's over! Pats win it!

Wait. All turnovers have to be reviewed. Was it a fumble? I thought for sure it was but others weren't so sure. Since it's Gillette it takes a while for the replay to come up if it ever does at all. We looked at the giant screens that Kraft spent millions on but never really uses except for Dunkin' ads. We waited and waited and ... Finally the replay showed. Sanchez falls in slow motion ... Ninko whacks him ... the ball comes loose before Sanchez is down. Fumble! Pats really do win! The replay was so obvious that the two teams were shaking hands, holding a prayer circle, and walking off the field before the ref could come back out to announce the obvious.

A day that started at 8:30 in the morning ended when I dropped Mark (and his empty container of pulled pork and coleslaw) in Providence for the 10:20 p.m. Amtrak to Penn Station. "Great tailgate. Great win," Mark said. "Great day all around."

It sure was. 25 years and nearly 300 games and still never gets old.

 

 

See Timmy Run

The big story out of New York this week (other than the Yanks' season imploding in a four-game sweep at the hands of the Tigers in the ALCS) was the news that the Jets plan on using Tim Tebow -- their secret weapon -- as a running back against the Pats Sunday. That Rex Ryan is so smart. Having your backup quarterback run the ball instead of Shonn Greene, your actual running back who rushed for 161 yards and three touchdowns in the team's best game last week.

Take a look at this Tebow pass against the Panthers from a preseason game. Hmmmm ... maybe putting him at running back isn't such a bad idea.

Everybody's talkin' at me

It's going to be a great week of hype. The Jets are coming to town. And they are feeling cocky. What else is new? It's funny how one NFL team can be 3-3 and feel like shit while another can be 3-3 and talking shit. It's all a matter of perspective I guess.

But before we get to the hype for the Jets there's the matter of the trash-talking corner from the Seattle Seahawks, Richard Sherman. After he picked off Brady and played a key role in the comeback win, Sherman spouted off to the assembled members of the Blabosphere in the locker room.

Sherman said he went up to Brady after the game and let him know "We're better than you. You're just a man -- we're a team. That's the Brady Bunch; this is a defense. We've got 11 players out there to play great ball, and we're never going to let one man beat us. It's not just about one man.''

He added in an interview with Yahoo Sports: "Anytime you run a gimmick offense, you're a little bit afraid -- you're not sound in what you're doing in your base stuff. You're running this hurry-up stuff, and there's a reason it's not effective, because there are great defenses out there who will stuff it. We figured out early in the game what the calls were, what they were doing, and what the adjustments were. We started executing better, and that's why they got only six points in the second half." 

He then tweeted the photo above from when he went up to Brady after the game and added the "U MAD BRO?" caption on it. Wait till Wes Welker sees that. You know he'll be making that his Christmas card. 

Like I've said before, the NFL is the best drama on TV. And Richard Sherman is the great new character introduced in the middle of the season. He's like Marlo on "The Wire." He's going to be fun to watch. And when you win a big game you have earned the right to talk. Although all that talk really does is put a target on your back that can weigh you down when you mess up. And you will mess up.

Just ask Skinny Rex. He kicked off Pats-Jets week in rare fashion. Ryan, the man who started the season saying he was going to talk less and coach more, took about three seconds into his Monday morning press conference to open his big mouth. Feeling confident after a convincing 35-9 win over the mighty mighty Colts (who won two games last year), Ryan had this to say about the upcoming game against their division rivals.

"I want them to know, and they know, that I think we're going to beat them."

Ah, Rex. He just can't help himself. His stomach may be smaller but his ego and his mouth are the same size. And that's what makes him so fun to root against.

Is it Sunday yet?

Going fourth

NFL coaches like to look at the 16-game season in four quarters. Now that each team has played four games, time has expired on the first quarter. So who is looking good at the quarter pole? And who is fading fast? My rankings go to 12 (not 11) because that's how many teams make the playoffs. There are some surprise teams not on the list like the Saints, Steelers, Lions, and Jets. Well, maybe not the Jets. And there are some surprise teams on the list like Arizona, Washington, and Denver.

It's only four games, but with a few exceptions these teams will be your playoff competitors come January. That's how important a good start is in the NFL.

1. San Francisco 49ers (3-1): They aren't one of the three remaining unbeaten teams, but they are the only team that could probably beat all three. The Niners stumbled against the Vikings but are still the most balanced team in the league. The San Fran D is a beast and the offense -- with running back Frank Gore -- is good enough to get the job done. The Niners are -- at the moment -- the best team in the NFC

2. Houston Texans (4-0): The Texans are -- at the moment -- the best team in the AFC. Houston will be sitting atop most power rankings after four weeks, And rightfully so. I just think the Niners D is better. And the Niners have more experience. But the Texans have a better quarterback in Matt Schaub and a very good runner in Arian Foster. And they haven't missed Mario Williams all that much, have they?

3. Atlanta Falcons (4-0): The Falcons are a little lucky to still be unbeaten. A Cam Newton fumble gave Atlanta new life and Matt Ryan and the offense were more than glad to take advantage of it with a great game-winning drive. Matty "Ice" looks like he has moved into the elite category. The Falcons are scoring 31 points a game and allowing 19. That adds up to 4-0.

4. Baltimore Ravens (3-1): The Ravens are off to a 3-1 start without Terrell Suggs, one of their leaders and one of the most ferocious pass rushers in the game. They were outplayed by the Patriots for a good chunk of their game and had to scrape and claw to beat the lowly Browns but player for player the Ravens are as good as anyone in the AFC. Torrey Smith is now one of the most dangerous weapons in the game. And Joe Flacco is off to a great start so far. We'll see if that lasts.

5. New England Patriots (2-2): The Pats would be ahead of the Ravens if they had held on to that 9-point lead. But they didn't. The Pats -- even without Aaron Hernandez -- have the best offense in the league. Brady has been at his best. But they haven't been able to win the close games and are sitting at 2-2. So what are the Pats doing in the top 5 instead of the 4-0 Cardinals? Well, this is a Patriots blog. And, honestly, do you really think if the two teams played again this weekend the Patriots wouldn't win? Really?

6. Green Bay Packers (2-2): My preseason #1 pick should be 3-1. Everyone knows that except Pete Carroll. The Packers paid the ultimate price for the fake refs ... a win. And they almost lost to the Saints in a wild one. The Packers are like the Patriots. They can score almost at will and their defense -- which should be better than it is -- gives up way too many big plays. But Aaron Rodgers -- like Brady -- has that look in his eye that he will not be denied. And they are coached by one of the classiest guys walking the sidelines.

7. Arizona Cardinals (4-0): Records don't mean everything. The Cardinals are unbeaten but they were lucky to beat the Pats (yes, the Cards D played great) and were really lucky to beat Miami. Sure, no one even had the Cadinals in their top 20 heading into the season that I saw so #7 is pretty good. The defense is young and fast but I think the offense is playing over its head. Every year a team starts off 4-0 or 3-1 and ends up missing the playoffs. The Cards are that team this year.

8. New York Giants (2-2): If you saw the Giants get beat by Philly you might not think they were top 10 worthy. But they are. The best pass rush. A two-time Super Bowl champ at QB. A hall of fame coach. A tough as nails run game. Experience all over the field. The Giants may only win 10 or 11 games but if that's enough to get in the playoffs then look out.

9. Chicago Bears (3-1): The Bears are nothing if not entertaining. Kind of like an episode of the "Kardashians." There's a lot of bickering and falling down, but then they dress up for prime time and kick the crap out of Dallas. Jay Cutler (playing the role of Kim) goes from bumping his lineman in frustration to tossing bombs all over Jerry Jones's coliseum. Brandon Marshall makes them a much different team offensively. When Forte gets back they will be even tougher. Of course, they still have Lovie as their coach.

10. Denver Broncos (2-2): There's only one reason the Broncos are on this list, bumping off 3-1 San Diego and Cincy. Peyton Manning. He's looked pretty darn good for an old guy who missed a year because his neck had to be fused back together. Very good actually. He has a young, talented group of receivers, a good running game, and a pretty good defense. That should get them to the top of the AFC West even with John Fox as coach.

11. Philadelphia Eagles (3-1): The Dream Team is back! Sort of. Michael Vick and his cast of stars have won three games while racking up an amazing number of turnovers in those games. It wasn't till they beat the Giants that I took them seriously. Till then they were stealing games from the likes of the Browns. But they are a talented team with a lot of experience and if they can just stop making mistakes (a big if) then they might finally make the dream come true for Philly fans.

12. Washington Redskins (2-2): RG3. No. It's not the new Nike sneaker (yet). It's the Skins saviour at QB. Robert Griffin III is this year's phenom rookie quarterback. Maybe even better than last year's model, Cam Newton. Griffin is fun to watch and the Skins are getting better on defense so they make the third NFC East team on the list. Yes. It's the toughest division by far.

Dishonorable mention: The 0-4 New Orleans Saints. Now we know what things would have looked like around here if Belichick had been suspended for a year over Spygate. Whew. The Saints continue to score tons of points thanks to Drew Brees. But they can't stop anyone and they look lost when the games get tight. Sean Peyton is clearly missed. As Belichick would have been. Whew.

Character study

WEEK 4
There is one trait that the Patriots have consistently shown so far this season. Resiliency. In the NFL -- with its wild ups and downs from week to week and even quarter to quarter -- it is one of the best traits a team can have. It's one that Belichick's teams have had almost every year (except maybe 2009). Yesterday in Buffalo it was on full display.

The Patriots found themselves down 21-7 with eleven minutes to go in the third quarter. If it wasn't for rare fumbles by Gronk and Welker, two more missed field goals for Gosty, and one long play by the Bills the Patriots would have been ahead comfortably. They were outplaying the Bills but Buffalo had made almost all the big plays. Thus, 21-7.

Then Brady, Welker, Gronk, Lloyd, Vince, Spikes -- and more importantly the banged up offensive line and running backs Ridley and Brandon Bolden -- decided enough was enough. Just about the time my nephew and I were texting each other "enough of this crap," the Patriots were embarking on a five touchdown spree that turned around the game and -- to steal a little hyperbole from the Blabosphere -- maybe even the season. Because 1-3 is 1-3 no matter how you slice it.

Suddenly Gronk looked like Gronk again. Brady was running in for a touchdown. Yes, Brady. Welker and Lloyd were catching everything that came their way. And Ridley and Bolden were combining for 243 yards and three touchdowns. The defense gave up too many yards again, but time after time in the second half they came up with the big hit or the big turnover. The biggest hit and the biggest turnover came courtesy of Big Vince, the team's emotional leader. With two minutes to play in the half and the Bills up 14-7, Welker fumbled at his own 20 setting the Bills up for a chance to deliver a crushing blow. It was the Pats D that delivered the blow.

Buffalo's C.J. Spiller slammed into the Pats D at the goal line and was slammed back by Brandon Spikes and the ball popped out and into Big Vince's hands. It was the second of six huge turnovers that helped keep the Pats in the game and then helped them put the game away.

As good as the Patriots were on offense, the defense was just as big despite giving up four touchdowns and a lot of yards. Like many games last year, a lot of those yards came after the game was well over.

Like every team in the NFL the Pats still have a lot of questions to answer moving forward. Do they have the depth to continue to overcome injuries? Can they be consistent in the running game? Can they ever get a pass rush? And can the secondary stop giving up big plays and taking bad penalties?

Peyton Manning returns to Gillette Sunday, this time with a horse on his helmet instead of a horseshoe. The Broncos will be another tough test for the Pats. It's likely to be a very close game. That would give the Pats a chance to answer maybe the biggest question still in need of an answer ... can they win a close game?

Shooting blanks

It's a rare thing in the NFL these days when a team gets shut out. Especially at home.

San Francisco 34, NY Jets 0. How you feeling about "the best team I've ever had" now, Rex? Not too good.

The "Tee-bow! Tee-bow!" chant should start before next Monday night's clash with the unbeaten Texans even begins. The Jets may have the same 2-2 record as the Patriots but they are in big trouble. Mark Sanchez completed just 13 passes for 103 yards with zero touchdowns (of course, since they didn't score) and one pick. The Niners have a great defense but those are ugly numbers.

I kept waiting for Tebow to come in and run some Wildcat plays but the highest paid backup QB in the league did nothing. The Niners backup -- Colin Kaepernick -- came in and showed Ryan, Sparano, and the Jets how the Wildcat is done. Kaepernick -- no, he didn't sink the winning putt for Europe in the Ryder Cup -- ran the Wildcat option in for a touchdown. He finished with 50 yards rushing from the QB spot. Tebow? He had two rushes for zero yards.

Zero. That was a big number for the Jets today.

Communication breakdown

Well ... it has sure hit the fan now.

If you foolishly stayed up late last night to watch all of the Seahawks-Packers game like I did then you saw the NFL's fake refs implode on national television. You think the officiating in the Pats-Ravens game was bad? Around midnight last night the fake refs took a big road victory away from the Pack and handed it to Pete Carroll and his Seahawks. The final play of the game -- a Hail Mary by Seattle -- was intercepted by Green Bay's M.D. Jennings in the corner of the end zone. Anyone but the most diehard Seattle fans (and the NFL) looking at the video below would have to agree with that. Seattle receiver Golden Tate gets an arm in there and claws away at the ball but it's clear who has "possession" and who doesn't.

It was even clear to one of the two refs on the field who made the call. The other ref, the one who signaled touchdown but really had no idea what had just happened, takes a look at his fellow fake ref and sees him starting to put his arms up so he too throws his arms up ... to signal touchdown. Problem is that the other ref was raising his arms to signal ... an interception and a touchback. Ooops. The two officials never talked to each other before making a signal as the regular officials would have. And after they made different calls they just stood there. Lost. The head ref, the man in the white hat, is no where to be found for a long time, thus allowing mass confusion to ensue. It was a mess. And it was all caused because there was no communication between the officials.

And that's where the real problem with the fake refs comes in. All refs -- real or fake -- make bad calls. It's just going to happen. Even to the best of refs. They have to make hundreds of split second decisions each weekend. But what the real refs do is prevent a game that is played on the edge of chaos from actually devolving into that chaos. And that's no easy feat.

Simply put .... the real refs, most of them in their 50s and 60s, manage to maintain total control and authority over giant athletes who are playing a ferocious game in an almost-out-of-control state of mind. Guys like Ed Hochuli never look confused. They are always in command and always communicating with their fellow officials. Everyone knows who is in charge. That's why the regular refs are a very important part of the game.

The fake refs have totally lost control of that game. ESPN's Gregg Easterbrook writes a good piece about this. The Pats-Ravens game had more skirmishes and pushing contests after the play than you normally see in a month of football. The regular refs know how to take control in those situations ... toss a lot of flags high in the air so all the players can see them and get in their faces. The fake refs mostly just stand there looking like I would ... lost in a scrum of NFL players.

Packer Greg Jennings was asked about the rough play after the game last night. The veteran wide receiver said he had never played in an NFL game where players were just taking shots at each other and the refs were doing nothing about it. The only way to make the players think twice about unloading on someone is to keep control of the game. The fake refs can't seem to do that. Someone is going to get hurt. And then the NFL will have a real problem.

Close calls

WEEK 3
"We need to start winning close games."

That was Tom Brady's spot-on analysis after the Pats lost an entertaining and excruciating 31-30 brawl to the Ravens to drop to 1-2 on the young season.

Rich, my co-worker and most loyal reader (OK, my only loyal reader) asked last week "Are the Patriots still clutch?" It was a good question then and an even better question today. The answer at the moment has to be... no. Sure, Brady and the offense staged a great two-minute drive to retake the lead at the end of the first half last night. Last year there was a great comeback against Dallas and before the Ravens missed that kick in the AFC title game Brady lead the Pats on a great march capped by his gutsy lunge into the end zone. But when it really counts. When they really need a stop. Or a first down. They just can't get it done.

The Blabosphere will be buzzing with talk of replacement refs and bad calls. There were lots of those, for sure. But the officiating didn't decide the outcome of the game. It may have caused a lot of cases of heartburn for players and fans alike, but it was equally bad for both teams. The game -- as it always is -- was decided by the coaches and players. And once again, those wearing the Pats' logo came up short when it counted.

It's the second week in a row that the Patriots lost a close one. It's been a problem for a few years now. Finishing. It's what all great teams do. The Patriots knew how to finish when they were winning Super Bowls.  Almost all of those players are gone now. Belichick's new model has yet to master that skill.

The Patriots may not know how to finish, but they are often very good at starting. The Pats came out of the gate looking to make a statement after their sloppy play last week and only the most negative of Pats' fans didn't think they would. They always do. And they did it again last night. The defense -- which had been rock solid for two weeks -- looked stout again. The Ravens' first three possessions in front of a fired up home crowd went punt, interception, punt. Stud running back Ray Rice could do nothing. Brady and the offense used that momentum to build a 13-0 lead. As the Ravens faced a 3rd-and-6 at their own 22 to start the second quarter things were looking very good. And then the fake refs began what would be a long, long night of questionable, puzzling, and laughable calls.

Flacco came under pressure and dumped the ball off to Rice who had Jerod Mayo on his heels. The ball fell harmlessly incomplete and it looked like the Pats' D had stopped the Ravens on four straight drives. Then the yellow flag hit the turf and the Ravens had a first down and some much needed momentum. Two things would continue to happen from that moment on... the Ravens offense would shred the Pats' D almost at will and the fake refs would throw enough flags to make everyone watching feel pretty ill.

Vince Wilfork said after the game that the erratic officiating made it hard for the defense to play their game. It made then tentative. I love Big Vince but that's pretty lame. It didn't stop Ed Reed or Ray Lewis. And it really shouldn't have anything to do with stopping the run. The Pats' D hadn't given up 300 yards in either of their first two games. Last night the Ravens piled up more than 500 yards of offense. It's a close call as to which was worse... the fake refs or the Pats' defense.

And yet each time Baltimore would take the lead, Brady and the offense would have a response and drive for a huge score. It was as good a game that the offense has played in a while, especially considering the loss of Aaron Hernandez and most "experts" predicting the offense would struggle to find a way to replace him. They found a way and with just more than 14 minutes to play held a 30-21 lead. Time for another chance to close out a game. The Pats' D forced a Ravens punt and the offense picked up a couple of key first downs. Mesko dropped a beautiful punt down to the Baltimore 8 with seven and a half minutes to play. The Pats were all set up to finish out a huge road win.

The Ravens, sometimes with the help of the fake refs and sometimes with the help of the Pats' D, drove the ball 92 yards for a touchdown with four minutes to play. 30-28. Time for Brady and the offense to get a few first downs and close out the game. Which they couldn't quite do despite some serious help from the fake refs. Mesko had to punt at the two minute warning, giving the Ravens the ball at their 21 with 1:55 to play.

Everyone in my den agreed it was time for the defense to finally ... finally ... make a stand and close out a big win. But as we have seen many times before the defense couldn't finish. It wasn't even close. Flacco drove the Ravens down the field with ease to set up the winning field goal.

Unlike last year's AFC title game, this time the Raven kicker put the ball through the uprights (barely) and Baltimore won a hard fought and hard earned victory.

It was another close call for the Pats. As Brady said, it's time the Pats to make some of those calls go their way.