Mile low

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
I'm not really sure what the people in the Sports Blabosphere are going to do this week. If you watched the Patriots season end with a 26-16 loss to the Broncos in Denver you know there really isn't much to say.

There aren't any "if only Brady had done this" or "if only Dennard had done that." The Patriots were outplayed from start to finish. It was 20-3 at the half but it might as well have been 40-3. Sure, the Pats were down 24-0 to this same Denver team just two months ago and stormed back to win. But that was at Gillette. And the reason the Pats were down in that game was that they turned the ball over and made one mistake after another.

The Patriots didn't make many mistakes yesterday (no turnovers) ... problem is they just didn't make many plays. Or any plays when it really mattered. It was as sound a beat down as any Belichick-Brady team has ever had. Me and my friends and family didn't get to throw a high-five until the game was almost over. That sucked.

The Broncos were the better team all year. But not that much better. The Broncos defense allowed an average of almost 25 points per game during the season (the Pats D allowed just under 22). The Broncos had a solid run defense (as was obvious yesterday pretty early on) but the Pats were better against the pass (not so obvious yesterday). All-in-all it should have been a pretty even battle. One look at the NFC title match between San Fran and Seattle showed what the game should have looked like. Both teams making big plays on offense and defense and special teams, the lead going back and forth, and finally one team making the biggest play to clinch it.

In the AFC title game it was the Broncos making all the plays. One after another after another after another. At times it seemed the Pats were just standing around and watching. Denver receivers were wide open, caught the ball, and then usually broke a tackle or two before either running out of bounds or going down gently. There were no moments of Bronco players taking a big hit as the cost for making a play. Denver was comfortable the whole game.

Other than Edelman, there really wasn't one player on the Pats who looked like they had a clue. Combine that with the Broncos playing an outstanding game and you get dominated. Manning threw for 400 yards because the Patriots' pass rush was more invisible than it usually is. And it's usually very hard to see. It was not the secondary's finest day, but it's hard to cover the best group of receivers in the game when the best quarterback in the game never gets dirty.

The only chance was to put pressure on the Broncos with the offense. But for the fifth year in a row the season ended with the team struggling just to get near 20 points. Brady missed some early chances at big plays and the offense showed a little spark at the end but when the team needed a big play they couldn't make it. The offensive line -- which had looked so strong down the stretch -- was a non-factor. The beast running game that had the offense looking like it was geared for a drive to the Super Bowl didn't show up. Folk hero LaGarrette Blount rushed for six yards. Six.

With the offense providing no pressure and the defense scratching and clawing to keep the game close, the Broncos were content to kick field goals. It seemed that John Fox (me last Tuesday: "Belichick will not lose to John Fox.") figured out sooner than most people that field goals were going to be enough to beat the Pats on this day. You had the feeling that if the Broncos needed to get touchdowns on those drives they would have gone on some of those fourth downs and put up seven. But they never had to.

Another disappointing ending to a great season. But that's the thing. It was another great season. That's like 13 in a row. And this year's team was as fun to root for as any of them. No Gronk. No Big Vince. No Mayo. No Seabass. No Spikes. No Amendola and Vereen for much of the year. But the team kept winning. I thought there was no way they could compete with the Saints offense, even at home. Pats 30-27. I figured there was no chance to come back down 24-0 to Denver. Pats 34-31. And there was no way they could go into Baltimore and beat a Ravens team that had won four in a row. Pats 41-7.

I figured it would be unlikely that they could go into Denver and pull off the upset in one of the toughest places to play. But this team just kept winning. Even the games they lost were close ones. Till today. As has been the case often in the past few years, the Pats saved their worst game of the season for their last game. That's always disappointing -- but no longer surprising -- with a Belichick-Brady team. That's what makes winning three titles in four years still so amazing. Watch each episode of "Three Games to Glory" one of these boring non-football days ahead and you will see just how many times the team's season came close to ending. But each time someone stepped up and made a play. Each time. The 2013 Pats were that team for most of the season but came up two games short. The 2014 Pats look to have a chance to take it two steps further and get the fourth "Three Games to Glory" made.

Well, that is if Gronk comes back healthy. If Vince can still play. If Edelman and Talib re-sign. If the team can find a pass rush. If Brady can stay healthy one more season. If ...

If my biggest complaint about the Pats is that they keep losing in the Super Bowl or the AFC title game ... well, I remember 1-15.

The good Manning

I know it's taboo for a Pats' fan to say... I like that Peyton Manning. (Not so for the little Manning, but he's thankfully done for the year ... so who cares about him?)

I like Peyton. He makes really funny commercials. He seems like a genuinely good guy. His teammates seem to really like him. He often loses to the Patriots in huge games. He doesn't sell UGGs. Oh, and he's one of the three or four best quarterbacks I have ever seen play the toughest position in pro sports.

Montana. Brady. Bradshaw. Aikman. Marino. Elway. Kelly. Staubach. Manning. For me, those are the best of my generation. You can put them in any order that you want. I never thought a Patriot quarterback would be on that list. I grew up watching Bradshaw and Staubach build Hall of Fame careers. I later watched as Montana, Aikman, and Elway won titles. I may not have always been rooting for them but I always enjoyed watching them and loved the way they played.

Manning is the same way. I don't really want to see him win another Super Bowl -- mainly because he's a Bronco and Pats' fans have a special dislike of the Mile High team. But if he does win it all he will have earned it -- again.

Even after a career-threatening neck surgery took a year away from him just as he was entering the last few years of his career, Manning the elder has battled all the way back and still makes passes that boggle the mind. He may be better than ever.

And he's still pretty funny....

Miss him now, Bill?

Well that should put an end to the "it's not Welker, it's the system" crap.

In his debut with Peyton Manning -- oh, and the rest of the Broncos -- Wes Welker grabbed 9 passes for 67 yards and two touchdowns. It would seem that another 100-catch season has begun for #83. What else would you expect? The guy can't be covered. 

You could see the Welker departure coming for a while, so when he did leave for Denver there was a lot disappointment but an equal amount of acceptance. That's the way it goes. As I've said before, Bobby Orr didn't finish his career a Bruin so nothing should surprise. The Pats made Welker a solid offer before last season, Welker turned it down, then the Pats took their usual stonewall stance, Welker hit the market and, although settling for a little less, he was quickly lured to the Rockies. It's called free agency.

It didn't bother me too much until I saw the photo above. Manning and Welker could be better than Brady and Welker. They could be better than anyone. Ever. The photo above says it all. As smart as Brady is as a quarterback, Manning is just a little smarter. Now he has a guy who plays the game just as smart. Manning's quick mind with Welker's quick feet will be tough to stop. 

The Sports Blabosphere offered the theory that although Welker is good, it was Brady and Belichick that made him great. Of course they played a key role. But it was more Welker's quickness, football instincts, tireless work ethic, tough-as-nails attitude, competitive drive, and athletic talent. The guy can't be covered.

The Patriots should be just fine. But it will be just a little less fun to watch without Welker catching those Brady lasers across the middle on 3rd-and-8 or grabbing the ball and spinning around to add on a handful of YACs.

OK, Danny Amendola. Let's see something.

F.O.Y.P.

They have almost single-handedly taken away three rings from Brady and Belichick. But they make great commercials. The new one advertising football on your phone (F.O.Y.P) has to be the best. It's not "Dick in a Box" ... but it's close.

New blood

OK... There'll be no more highlights of Wes Welker in a Patriots uniform making an amazing catch on 3rd-and-7 (How many of those did he have? Hundreds?) or him diving into the end zone or holding on to the ball after taking a bone-rattling hit or walking hand-in-hand with Tom Brady along Newbury Street. That will all be happening out west with Manning the elder. It's a little depressing. So I thought it would be a good idea to take a look at some highlights from the two newest Patriots... Danny Amendola and Leon Washington. Cheer up, Pats' fans.








Most of Washington's highlights are kick returns. But here's one that should really put you in a good mood. Keep your eye on #52 for Miami.

A familiar face

The Ravens' victory in double overtime against the Broncos in Denver was one of the best playoff games I've ever seen. And one of the biggest upsets. I gave Baltimore no chance to win that game. No chance. And I thought there was no chance I would see the Manning face. But I got to see quite a bit of it. It looks good with a stocking cap.

The Ravens' shocker means the Pats and Texans play for the chance to host the AFC title game instead of having to go to Denver. As if tomorrow's game wasn't big enough. If the Pats take care of business against Houston we get a rematch of last year's epic conference title game... at Gillette. 

Pats-Ravens II. One more tailgate. The thought of that brings a happy face.

Round two

OK, that was not a very entertaining Wild Card weekend. Sure, the Bengals-Texans game was close most of the way and Seattle's comeback against the Skins had some drama but the four games were not that exciting. Unless you are a Packers, Texans, Ravens, or Seahawks fan. Then they were great games. I thought they would be more competitive but each game had a team that clearly wasn't ready for the playoffs. That should change this weekend. All four matchups should be bruising battles. Even the Patriots rematch with Houston. Despite what most in the Blabosphere are saying, this will not be an easy game for the Pats. The Texans will leave their letterman jackets behind this time. They will be ready.

AFC

Ravens (11-6) at Broncos (13-3): The Ray Lewis retirement party begins immediately after this game. I just don't see Peyton Manning losing at home after putting together the season he has in Denver. I know it's supposed to be cold and the elder Manning never wins in the cold. But you're talking about the fifth best passing attack in the league against a very average defense. Andrew Luck is no Peyton Manning. And the Colts don't have wide receivers like Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas. Add to that a healthy Willis McGahee and I don't see the Ravens D holding Manning to under 23 points. And it's very unlikely that Joe Flacco can score more than 20 points against the Denver defense. All the focus is on Manning and Lewis but the Bronco defense was third in the league against the pass and third in the league against the run. The Denver D is very very good. The Broncos are no 13-3 fluke. And they are at home. They will be hosting the AFC title game. Broncos 27, Ravens 16.

Texans (13-4) at Patriots (12-4): No one is giving Houston a chance to win this one. Including me. But that doesn't mean it will be an easy game or that the Texans can't win. They can. I just don't think they will. But I didn't think the Jets could come into Gillette in the Divisional Round two years ago and win. They did. And this Texans team is much better than that Jets team. Much better. I watched Alabama destroy unbeaten Notre Dame in the college championship game and thought if Brady and the Patriots can play at the level that the Tide played at for three more games then they will finally get that fourth Lombardi. The Texans will play a better game than they did in the Monday night thrashing a month ago. They have to play better. But better won't be good enough if the Pats play at their peak. And that is where the questions come in. Can Talib be the shutdown corner I've heard tell of? Can the secondary not give up the big plays? Can Ridley hold on to the ball? Can rookies Jones and Hightower rise up under the playoff pressure? Can Brady stop throwing the bad pick in a playoff game? Can Gosty make a clutch playoff kick? I think the answers to most of those questions, at least for this week, are yes. Patriots 34, Texans 20.


NFC

Packers (12-5) at 49ers (11-4-1): The classic battle of the wide-open offense against the smash-mouth defense. I'm really looking forward to this game. The numbers favor the Niners in almost every category. They are the fourth ranked D in the league while the Pack is in the middle of the pack. The Niners also have one of the best rushing attacks in the game. If Frank Gore dominates the Green Bay D and keeps Aaron Rodgers off the field then the Pack is in trouble. But that's where San Fran quarterback Colin Kaepernick comes in. Coach Jim Harbaugh with his rather large ego wants to show that he made the right choice by benching Alex Smith in favor of his guy. So he will have Kaepernick throwing. Since Kaepernick took over the starting job Gore has not had a 100-yard rushing game. He had three before that. I think the Niners throw the ball more than they should and that opens the door for Rodgers and his array of receiving weapons. The Packers are a veteran team that will not be afraid to win on the road. Packers 27, Niners 23.

 

Seahawks (12-5) at Falcons (13-3): The Seahawks are the surprise team in the NFL's elite eight. And they just might be the most dangerous. If Pete Carroll wins a Super Bowl ... What was I saying? Right. Seahawks vs. the Falcons. Seattle is a team that plays to its strengths. They have the best runner in the game right now, Marshawn Lynch. And they run him right down their opponent's throat. And then they have rookie QB Russell Wilson make some plays. On defense they are just nasty everywhere. They play like the old Miami Hurricanes defense. Like criminals. They are intimidating. And if there's one team in the NFL the past few years that can be intimidated it's Matt Ryan's Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons have the sixth best passing attack in the league with Roddy White, Julio Jones, and future hall of famer Tony Gonzalez catching Ryan's passes. But Seattle has the best pass defense in the game. What else do the Falcons have? They are 29th in the league in rushing and 23rd against the pass and 21st against the run. That's not good. The Falcons will be one and done again. Seahawks 30, Falcons 21.

Twelve for the tourney

Like most football fans, I enjoy the NFL rankings that are on most sports websites each week. The Pats always being near the top helps of course. But it's just one of the things about the NFL that makes it fun. Everyone has their opinion on who is the top team, who is the 15th best, and who is the worst. So who's No. 1? We'll find out for sure come the first Sunday in February. These are the twelve that have a shot at the title. The last time all twelve playoff teams had ten wins or more was 2005. That's another great thing about the NFL. The league is deep. All twelve teams really do have a shot.

1. New England Patriots (12-4): Yes. I'm a Pats fan. I'm biased. But be honest. If the Patriots and any of the other teams on this list both played their absolute best games, do you really think the Pats would lose? Well, I don't. The Denver Broncos, led by the elder Manning, are better statistically on defense and are pretty even on offense so they will get the nod on most rankings heading into the playoffs. Brady vs. Manning is a wash. But do the Broncos have Welker, Gronk, Hernandez, Lloyd, Ridley, Woody, Mankins, Big Vince, Mayo, Jones, Ninko, Spikes, and Hightower? No. And that's a deep list of playmakers. Oh, and the Pats have Bill Belichick coaching and the Broncos have John Fox.

2. Denver Broncos (13-3): So now it's the other Manning's turn again. Great. The return to form of one of the game's all-time best is one of the 2012 season's top stories. The Broncos were a pretty decent team last year, even with Tim Tebow at quarterback. With Peyton Manning, they are a true contender. After losing to the Pats in Week 5 to fall to 2-3 the Broncos have won eleven in a row. But only two of those teams (Cincy and Baltimore) were playoff teams. Still, eleven in a row is eleven in a row. And Denver has home field. That's huge because it's a very tough place to play. Young receivers Demayrius Thomas and Eric Decker have blossomed with Manning, each having more than 1,000 yards receiving. The defense has been good for a few years now.

3. San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1): I saw the Niners get pushed around by Seattle too. You know what? They won't be playing in Seattle if they meet in the playoffs. San Francisco had a few surprising struggles this year, particularly an 0-1-1 record against the St. Louis Rams. And they let the Patriots score 28 straight points against them. But they are the best running team in the league and the best team against the run. And they can play anywhere. Under coach Jim Harbaugh the Niners have become a smash-mouth throwback. Young QB Colin Kaepernick is the big question mark. Can he make the right decisions in a playoff game? If he can the Niners are going to the Super Bowl.

4. Atlanta Falcons (13-3): Can the Falcons get over the playoff hump? That's the question that will hover over this team while they enjoy their bye week. Matt Ryan and his team are 0-3 in the playoffs. But once again they have home-field advantage, although that doesn't really help you if you keep losing the first playoff game each year. Ryan has two great receivers in Julio Jones and Roddy White and he has veteran hall of fame tight end Tony Gonzalez. Running back Michael Turner had ten touchdowns but he wasn't the force he usually is. And the defense is average at best. But Atlanta is due to win a playoff game. Right?

5. Green Bay Packers (11-5): It would not surprise me at all to see Aaron Rodgers hoisting the trophy at the end again. The Packers won the title two years ago, went 15-1 last year, and if it wasn't for the fake refs would be enjoying a first-round bye. Green Bay's offense is like the Patriots. Rodgers has many weapons to throw too. Jennings. Cobb. Jones. Nelson. Finley. The defense is strong against the pass with linebackers A.J. Hawk and Clay Matthews leading the way. The Packers have a chip on their shoulder from their one-and-done last year. That won't happen this year.

6. Seattle Seahawks (11-5): I had Pete Carroll and his Seahawks ranked near the bottom before the season started. Mostly out of spite. And also because I didnt know that he had built one of the best secondaries in the game. And in today's pass-happy NFL, if you can stop the pass you can win. Often. And if you can run the ball you can win even more. The Seahawks, behind the beast Marshawn Lynch, can run the ball right down your throat. If rookie QB Russell Wilson can make plays then this is a dangerous team. The big question is can they win on the road.

7. Houston Texans (12-4): The enigma of the twelve. The top team in the AFC for most of the year got whacked by the Patriots on a Sunday night game and never really recovered, losing three of their last four. But there's a reason the Texans were dominant for most of the season. Arian Foster on offense and J.J. Watt on defense. When you have two playmakers like that you are good. Add solid QB Matt Schaub and veteran wide receiver Andre Johnson and you have a balanced attack. The problem for Houston is they are not that good against the pass and when you have Tom Brady and Peyton Manning in your conference you probably aren't going to the Super Bowl.

8. Washington Redskins (10-6): I love this team. RG3. Alfred Morris. Pierre Garcon. They can beat you up. What don't I love about this team? Mike Shanahan. I know he has two rings, but he's crazy. If I'm a Skins fan I'm hoping Shanahan doesn't get too smart for his own good. Hand the ball to Alfred Morris and when the D fills the box to stop him let RG3 do his thing. The Skins D tightened up in the last month of the season. The Skins have the feel of this year's Giants. If they can win that first playoff game they could be tough to stop.

9. Baltimore Ravens (10-6): The Ravens, on the other hand, you want to play. They are a mess. Predictions are so often wrong that when you actually get one right it almost makes you feel like you know what your talking about. With five weeks to go in the season and the Ravens sitting at 10-2, I thought the Ravens would only win one more game and finish 11-5. I came pretty close. They finished 10-6. Even worse than I thought. But they are playing for Ray Lewis who announced this week he's retiring when the playoffs end. He'll be home for good pretty soon.

10. Indianapolis Colts (11-5): Did anybody see this coming? Did any "expert" predict the Colts to win more than five or six games this year? I doubt it. The Colts have been one of the best stories of the season. Their first-year coach Chuck Pagano missed most of the season as he was being treated for leukemia but the team rallied around him and play way over its head. Most of that was because top pick Andrew Luck showed why he was the top pick. But that's really where the positive news ends. The Colts are the only playoff team that allowed more points than it allowed (30). Not even the Vikings did that. The Colts are the Cinderella story coming into the playoffs. It's almost midnight.

11. Cincinnati Bengals (10-6): Maybe Marv Lewis isn't that bad of a coach after all. Maybe he just needed some players who had more talent than mouth. Like AJ Green. The guy is a beast. The Pats don't have anyone who can cover him. The Bengals also have old friend BenJarvus. Bennie's streak without a fumble ended this year but his streak of playing solid ball did not. Oh, and they led the  league in sacks for most of the year. You really don't want  to play them. But the Bengals under Lewis have a history of losing games they should win.

12. Minnesota Vikings (10-6): Two words: Adrian Peterson. That's what the Vikings are all about. If you can stop the league's comeback player of the year then the Vikes have zero chance. Their quarterback is Christian Ponder. No. Really. And Ponder doesn't have any real receiving threats. Minnesota is next to last in the league in passing and mediocre in all phases of defense. I'm not even sure how they won ten games and made the playoffs. I think the Bears, Cowboys, and Giants are all better than the Vikings. Minnesota will be joining them on the sidelines very soon.

Dishonorable mention: The New York Giants are not in the playoffs! The New York Giants are not in the playoffs! Man it feels good to write that. The defending champs were looking good at 6-2 but they fell apart in the second half of the season to finish 9-7. Eli Manning hit the wall and Tom Coughlin's team looked disorganized and had too many turnovers, drops, and plain old sloppy play. The Giants are not in the playoffs!

Just their Luck

Just when it looked like one of the best rivalries in football had run its course ... the Colts are back.

When the schedule came out in the spring, tomorrow's game was probably the least appealing home game on the list. Arizona would have had that honor but the Cardinals were coming for the home opener. Always look forward to the home opener no matter who the opponent is. But the Colts in the chill of late November didn't look all that enticing. The Colts who won two games last year. The Colts who no longer have Peyton Manning at quarterback. The Colts who the Pats beat pretty easily last year.

It was clearly going to be all about the tailgating.

Then something unexpected happened. Andrew Luck -- the top player taken in the draft and the reason the Colts felt they could let the greatest player in franchise history leave -- started to play up to those impossible expectations. The rookie has led his team to five wins in the last six games and has the Colts sitting at 6-3. Just like the Patriots. Suddenly this has become a very interesting game and a very big challenge for the Pats' challenged pass defense.

The rivalry between the Pats and the Colts has been one of the best NFL story lines of the past decade. The two teams have staged some epic battles during that time. There was that 4th-and-2 game. And the greatest game I have ever had the good fortune to have a ticket for.

Patriots-Colts. Brady vs. Luck. It's the game of the week again. Just as it should be.

The unexpected

WEEK 5
Patriots 31, Broncos 21 (10/7/'12): It's always a pleasant surprise when the game-day rain that was forecast all week never really arrives.

It was just one of the many surprises on a day of the unexpected at Gillette. We arrived at Rock Ridge about five hours before kickoff on what turned out to be a pretty nice fall day for drinking and grilling. It wasn't until the third hour of tailgating (and drinking and grilling) that we needed the cover of the tent. It was right about that time, as I was enjoying the roast chicken, that another unexpected thing occurred.

One of the tailgating traditions in the Enchanted Forest is the old guy who dons a Pirates batting helmet and the jersey of that week's opponent and walks around the lot taunting Pats fans -- good natured of course or he'd have disappeared in the woods long ago never to be seen again. One week he's dressed as Ray Lewis, the next as Ben Roethlisberger. He walks among the grills and coolers yelling "Let's go Broncos! or "Come on Jets!" to the entertainment of everyone wearing Brady jerseys. It was about 4 p.m. when he made his rounds, this time wearing a vintage Elway jersey. As the tailgating crowd laughed at old man Elway, the guy tailgating next to us reached into the back of his SUV and pulled out a giant fox head. That's right. A giant fox head.

With the words "I'm coming to get you, Elway!", he put the giant fox head on and started climbing up Rock Ridge. Old man Elway stopped and looked back to see a man in a giant fox head stumbling towards him. It was obvious he was not expecting that either. The two exchanged a few words -- although it was hard to hear exactly what the guy in the giant fox head was saying -- and then old man Elway disappeared over the rocks towards the other side of the lot. As giant fox head guy walked back with his arms raised in victory, Matt -- who works for ESPN so he knows these things -- recognized that it was not just any giant fox head but actually the giant fox head of Slyde, the New England Revolution's mascot. That's right. The New England Revolution apparently have a giant fox as their mascot. And his name is apparently Slyde. Turns out one of the other guys tailgating next to us is Slyde. Not the guy who put on the head. If you google Slyde and compare him with the photo above you will notice a difference. We asked why a soccer team named the Revolution had a fox named Slyde for a mascot but no one seemed to know. Not even Slyde. So we raised a toast to our mascot neighbor and then headed into the stadium for what would turn out to be four more hours of rain-free weather and unexpected developments.

Brady vs. Manning round 13 turned wasn't really about Brady or Manning. They both had good games. Very good games. But the story was the Pats running game. Again. It is the unexpected story of the season so far. And if it continues it will make the already dangerous Pats' offense almost unstoppable. Even for the Giants in February.

The teams traded impressively long drives for a 7-7 score early in the second quarter. A tight game was one thing that was expected. The fact that my third margarita was not being watered down by rain at that point in the evening fell happily into the unexpected category. The Pats would score the next 24 points (pretty unexpected) to break the game open. Brady continued to build on what may turn out to be his best season ever. He only threw for 223 yards and one touchdown but he was in total control of the game. Any talk of anyone but him for MVP at this point is foolish.

Brady used the running game and a very hurried-up offense to wear the Bronco defenders down to the point of exhaustion and confusion. The crowd was on its feet as the Pats went on drives of 14 plays (touchdown), 16 plays (field goal), and 16 plays (touchdown). Ninkovich then sacked Manning inside the Denver 20 and Big Vince recovered another big fumble. Two plays later Stevan Ridley (151 yards rushing) crashed into the end zone and the Pats were in control 31-7. Manning put up a couple of late touchdowns to close the score to 31-21 but, like many times in the past few years, it was too little too late against the Pats D.

With a big AFC victory in hand and the Pats back in their familiar spot at the top of the AFC East, we headed back for a post-game tailgate of burgers that Matt had brought up from Noack's in Connecticut. From the time the score hit 31-7 I had been thinking about those burgers. We started unloading the truck ... table, grill, chairs, cooler ... cooler? No cooler. Just as Shep was saying "Someone stole our cooler!" one of the guys a few cars down was yelling "Someone stole our cooler!" No post-game hamburgers. No post-game beer. Talk about unexpected. In the nearly 20 years we've been tailgating we've never had a cooler or anything stolen from the back of the truck. First time for everything.

As we ate the leftover chicken we talked about two things... who would steal someone's hamburger meat! And the fact that the Tom Brady-led New England Patriots are currently averaging 165 yards a game on the ground. Third best in the NFL.

Now that's really unexpected.

Face time

The Manning face looks the same in Bronco orange as it did in Colt blue.

If you have been following the Pats-Colts, Manning-Brady rivalry since 2001 then you are very familiar with the Manning face. If not, then look at the photo. That's it.

I like Manning. He's the third-best quarterback I have ever seen. (1. Montana. 2. Brady). Although I was rooting against his Colts, I was glad he finally got a ring. And also glad he didn't get a second one. I like Manning, but I like him better when he's wearing the Manning face. I hope to see a lot of the Manning face on Sunday. The weather is supposed to be lousy. That usually increases the Manning face sightings.

Bring on the rain.

One game at a time

The Cowboys and Giants meet tonight to kick off the 2012 NFL season. Even if the Sox weren't staging their own version of "The Poseidon Adventure," I would be psyched for this weekend. I don't paint my face (Not that there's anything wrong with that. No, of course not.) or throw things when the team I root for loses, but from September through (hopefully) the first Sunday in February the Pats and the NFL are a big part of life. It is the best entertainment I get all year. Even better than "Game of Thrones."

The Pats start another run at Lombardi #4. They have come soooooo close a few times. And as long as Brady and Belichick are in place, Pats fans will continue to get the best show around. We know it will end someday, so we enjoy every second of it.

Predicting at the end of summer what a team's record will at the start of winter is mostly folly. You may know what the team you root for is capable of, but it's impossible to know how good or bad other teams will be. Who thought the Niners would be so good last year? And who knows what Buffalo or Indy can do this year? But that's the fun of predicting. Everyone is right before the games begin.

Two years ago I thought the Pats would go 13-3. (Yes, optimistic after they got smoked by the Ravens in the playoffs, but if you can't be optimistic in September then when can you be?) The Pats went 14-2. Before last season I thought the Pats would go 12-4. They went 13-3. I see a trend.

WEEK 1 @ Tennessee
The Pats start on the road again. It worked out well last year with a big win in Miami. This time they take on the Titans, a team they haven't seen in a few years. Jeff Fisher was the coach back then. He's gone. As is a lot of the Titans' swagger. Tennessee finished 9-7 last year even with a very subpar performance by RB Chris Johnson, so they are no easy win. Quarterback Jake Locker starts his second season as the starter. If he rolls up more than 300 yards against the Pats D then I'll be worried. It's an interesting first week matchup. Still, it's an opener the Pats should win.

WEEK 2 vs. Arizona
Not the most exciting of home openers. But it will be the first tailgate and that's all that matters. And it will be my first chance to yell "Nice throw to Welker, Tommy!" And it will be the first home win of the year. The Cardinals are worse than the Titans. Much worse. Again, it's a team the Pats aren't very familiar with. But, again, that should not be a problem. Pats should start off 2-0. Hope it's a perfect September day.

WEEK 3 @ Baltimore
Now the fun begins. A rematch of the AFC title game that ended with the Ravens kicker missing an easy game-tying field goal. Ray Lewis and co. are still pissed. This will be a big early test for both teams. A Pats road win against Baltimore would be huge. And would give them the advantage come playoff tie-breaker time. (Yes, Week 3 is not to early to think about that stuff). T Sizzle won't be on the field terrorizing Brady. The Ravens D is old. Gronk and Hernandez are not. I like the Pats here.

WEEK 4 @ Buffalo
The Pats blew a 21-0 lead against the Bills on the road in Week 3 last year. The Bills fell apart after that while the Pats went to the Super Bowl. Buffalo landed the big free agent in Mario Williams and will enter the season with one of the best pass rushes in the game. Bill Belichick's team very rarely -- as in never -- has letdowns after big wins. But I think that happens here. Bills hand the Pats their first loss for the second year in a row.

WEEK 5 vs. Denver
I had hoped the renewal of the Manning-Brady battle would be on a beautiful early October night. Perfect for football and tailgating. Close. It's at 4 in the afternoon on Oct. 7th. That works. Tailgating begins at 9 a.m. There's no way of knowing how well Manning will be playing this early into the season. Probably pretty well. But not well enough to beat the Pats at home in the game of the week. Manning might be ready for that but the rest of the Broncos showed in the playoffs last year that they aren't. Pats get to 4-1.

WEEK 6 @ Seattle
The fourth road game in the first six weeks takes New England on their only voyage out west. Waiting for them will be old pumped-and-jacked friend Pete Carroll. Why do I think Belichick will run the score up in this one? The Pats are one of the few teams that have had some success going out to Seattle to play. This year should be no different against a weak version of the Seahawks. Something like Pats 52, Seahawks 13.

WEEK 7 vs. NY Jets
Let me start practicing... Teee-bow! Teeee-bow! Teeeeee-bow!. The beauty of it is the Foxborough fans can start chanting that while Sanchez is in the game to annoy him and then turn it into a mock cheer when Tebow comes in and throws a pick. Thanks Rex. Tebow aside, this will be a great game. Belichick and the Pats reasserted themselves against Ryan and his gang last year. Ryan will be doing a lot of talking before the game. Not after. Pats go to 6-1.

WEEK 8 @ St. Louis
I love the NFC West. Cardinals and Seahawks and Rams. Oh my. Another place the Patriots play well even when the Rams are good. This time they aren't. But they aren't playing it in St. Louis. For the second time in a few years the Pats are headed to London to play a real game. I don't think the NFL is really serious about this expanding the game to Europe nonsense. If they did they would have the Pats-Broncos game in London. Pats vs. Rams. A game only a Pats fan could love. Blowout. 7-1.

WEEK 9 Bye
As if the schedule wasn't setup perfectly enough, the Pats get the ideal middle-of-the-season week off. They'll get a chance to recover from their trip overseas and get a chance to prepare for a second half schedule that will be a little tougher than the first eight. And  I'll get a chance to gather my layers for five cold-weather home games down the stretch. Unless this global warming thing continues.

WEEK 10 vs. Buffalo
An extra week to prepare didn't work out last year when the Pats lost their next two games after the bye. A rarity in all ways during the Belichick years. The coach will be able to drive that point home and the Pats will be ready to go. Avenging their only loss up to this point, Brady, Welker, Lloyd, Gronk, and Hernandez take it up and down the field. 8-1.

WEEK 11 vs. Indianapolis
After the bye the Pats get back-to-back home games. Against Buffalo and Indy. How nice. The Colts will be in the middle of their first year with Andrew Luck as the new Peyton Manning. The Colts weren't too pretty in Manning's first year and that team had more talent around him. I don't care how much Luck the Colts have, this game should be an easy one. Yes, Pats get to 9-1.

WEEK 12 @ NY Jets
I will be staking out my seat in my sister's basement up in Maine around 7 p.m. with pie and beer in hand. I want a good view of this one. It doesn't matter if the Pats come into this Thanksgiving night game at 9-1 or 6-4, this will be another epic chapter in the rivalry. (They won't be 6-4). The Jets will either be battling with the Pats for the division lead or battling among themselves. Either way, I still (barely) give Skinny Rex enough credit to think that his team will show up to play and win at home. If they can't, then that will be the best beer and pie I've ever had. Pats slip to 9-2.

WEEK 13 @ Miami
The Pats will get a trip to South Beach to take their mind off of a tough loss. It should be just what the schedule-maker ordered. I don't know who will be playing QB for the Dolphins. I'm not even sure if they have a coach at this point. The Pats get Miami twice in the final month of the season and that's a good thing. Pats win another division game and get to 10-2.

WEEK 14 vs. Houston
The Texans are a tough team to predict for 2012. They won their first division title last year and should have taken out the Ravens in the playoffs but were on their third- or fourth-string QB and lost a tough one. Then they lost Mario Williams to the Bills. So are they still a top contender? I think so. The D is still very good and if Schaub can get back to form the offense is too. Good enough I think to sneak into Gillette and steal a game. If that happens the Pats will have lost two of their last three and the Blabosphere will be all lathered up. Pats 10-3.

WEEK 15 vs. San Francisco
The Pats will give all those lathered up blabbers and bloggers a big "calm down" the following Sunday night in a prime-time matchup with the 49ers. Another great home game. Another great December tailgate in the Enchanted Forest. And another great home win. Like last year, I expect the Pats D -- if healthy -- to begin to really figure it out right about now. Old friend Randy Moss will be among the Niners testing them. I think the Pats will pass this test with a big win. 11-3.

WEEK 16 @ Jacksonville
12-3. The Jags won five games last year and Maurice Jones-Drew had a great season. And stayed healthy. That may be asking too much from him again. The Jags should be stumbling around the NFC South basement with the Colts while the Pats should be locking up the AFC East penthouse yet again. Pats go to 12-3 and clinch another division title. Hats and T-shirts.

WEEK 17 vs. Miami
For the second year in a row the schedule makers send Miami up to Foxborough as the New Year approaches. They really don't like the Dolphins. But the Pats do. There will be lots of talk about what players should rest before the playoffs. I can tell you who will rest... no one. Belichick will start them all and the Pats will wrap up another top seed at 13-3.

Optimism. It's so easy in September. Actually, with Brady and Belichick it's pretty easy in October, November, December, and January too.

Right on schedule

Thanksgiving is probably my favorite holiday. No gifts. Lots of food and wine and laughs with the family. Pretty much stress free (except for my sister who hosts the family every year. Thanks Laurie). And football. It's pretty much the perfect day off.

Why bring up Thanksgiving on April 17th? Because the NFL has just released its 2012 regular season schedule and the Patriots will be playing against Tim Tebow and the Jets on Thanksgiving night. A perfect holiday just got that much better. I really can't wait.

The NFL has grown to such a level of all-consuming pastime that just the release of the schedule is an event and major topic of discussion. The NFL Network had a special program where they announced the games week-by-week and team-by-team as if they were revealing MegaMillion lottery winners. Major League Baseball doesn't hold a TV special to tell you the first time the Brewers visit the Pirates. No one cares. But I do care what week the Ravens visit the Steelers. The release of the NFL schedule is like one of those sneak peak hours into the upcoming season of your favorite show. Who's going to die? Who's going to screw over who? Of all the dramas and comedies on TV, the NFL is still my favorite show.

And the Patriots are still one of the stars. A look at the Pats schedule shows that the 2012 season may be the best yet. That little Thanksgiving night game being the high point.

Back before the Pats routinely won ten or more games a year, Mark and I used to call each other with Globe in hand (yes, long long ago) and go over each game on the schedule. When are they going to Miami? Do they have to go west? When is the bye? How many games do you think we can win? When is our first tailgate? Mark and I don't call each other to go over the schedule anymore. These days we text. It's not as fun.

Two years ago I went over the schedule game-by-game and thought the Pats would go 13-3. (Yes, optimistic). They went 14-2. Before last season I thought the Pats would go 12-4. They went 13-3. I see a trend.

WEEK 1 @ Tennessee
The Pats start the season on the road again. It worked out well last year with a big win in Miami. This time they take on the Titans, a team they haven't seen in a few years. Jeff Fisher was the coach back then. He's gone. As is a lot of the Titans' swagger. Tennessee finished 9-7 last year even with a very subpar performance by Chris Johnson. It's an interesting first week matchup. An opener the Pats should win as easily as last year.

WEEK 2 vs. Arizona
Not the most exciting of home openers. But it will be the first tailgate and that's all that matters. And it will be my first chance to yell "Nice throw to Welker, Tommy!" And it will be the first home win of the year. The Cardinals are worse than the Titans. Again, it's a team the Pats aren't very familiar with. But, again, that should not be a problem. Pats should start off 2-0.

WEEK 3 @ Baltimore
Now the fun begins. A rematch of the AFC title game that ended with the Ravens kicker missing an easy game-tying field goal. Ray Lewis and co. are still pissed. This will be a big early test for both teams. A Pats road win against Baltimore would be huge. And would give them the advantage come playoff tie-breaker time. (Yes, Week 3 is not to early to think about that stuff). Brady comes in with Brandon Lloyd and Anthony Gonzalez and hopefully some young defensive studs chosen on draft day. The Ravens D will be just a little bit older. I like the Pats here.

WEEK 4 @ Buffalo
The Pats blew a 21-0 lead against the Bills on the road in Week 3 last year. The Bills fell apart after that while the Pats went to the Super Bowl. Buffalo landed the big free agent in Mario Williams and will enter the season with one of the best pass rushes in the game. Bill Belichick's team very rarely -- as in never -- has letdowns after big wins. But I think that happens here. Bills hand the Pats their first loss for the second year in a row.

WEEK 5 vs. Denver
I had hoped the renewal of the Manning-Brady battle would be on a beautiful early October night. Perfect for football and tailgating. Close. It's at 4 in the afternoon on Oct. 7th. That works. Tailgating begins at 9 a.m. There's no way of knowing how well Manning will be playing this early into the season. Probably pretty well. But not well enough to beat the Pats at home in the game of the week. Manning might be ready for that but the rest of the Broncos showed in the playoffs last year that they aren't. Pats get to 4-1.

WEEK 6 @ Seattle
The fourth road game in the first six weeks takes New England on their only voyage out west. Waiting for them will be old pumped-and-jacked friend Pete Carroll. Why do I think Belichick will run the score up in this one? The Pats are one of the few teams that have had some success going out to Seattle to play. This year should be no different against a weak version of the Seahawks. Something like Pats 52, Seahawks 13.

WEEK 7 vs. NY Jets
Let me start practicing... Teee-bow! Teeee-bow! Teeeeee-bow!. The beauty of it is the Foxborough fans can start chanting that while Sanchez is in the game to annoy him and then turn it into a mock cheer when Tebow comes in and throws a pick. Thanks Rex. Your brilliance is blinding. Tebow aside, this will be a great game. Belichick and the Pats reasserted themselves against Mt Ryan and his gang last year. Ryan will be doing a lot of talking before the game. Not after. Pats go to 6-1.

WEEK 8 @ St. Louis
I love the NFC West. Cardinals and Seahawks and Rams. Oh my. Another place the Patriots play well even when the Rams are good. This time they aren't. But they aren't playing it in St. Louis. For the second time in a few years the Pats are headed to London to play a real game. I don't think the NFL is really serious about this expanding the game to Europe nonsense. If they did they would have the Pats-Broncos game in London. Pats vs. Rams. A game only a Pats fan could love. Blowout. 7-1.

WEEK 9 Bye
As if the schedule wasn't setup perfectly enough, the Pats get the ideal middle-of-the-season week off. They'll get a chance to recover from their trip overseas and get a chance to prepare for a second half schedule that will be a little tougher than the first eight. And  I'll get a chance to gather my layers for five cold-weather home games down the stretch. Unless this global warming thing continues.

WEEK 10 vs. Buffalo
An extra week to prepare didn't work out last year when the Pats lost their next two games after the bye. A rarity in all ways during the Belichick years. The coach will be able to drive that point home and the Pats will be ready to go. Avenging their only loss up to this point, Brady, Welker, Lloyd, Gronk, Gonzalez, Hernandez, and Branch take it up and down the field. 8-1.

WEEK 11 vs. Indianapolis
After the bye the Pats get back-to-back home games. Against Buffalo and Indy. How nice. The Colts will be in the middle of their first year with Andrew Luck as the new Peyton Manning. The Colts weren't too pretty in Manning's first year and that team had more talent around him. I don't care how much Luck the Colts have, this game should be an easy one. Yes, Pats get to 9-1.

WEEK 12 @ NY Jets
I will be staking out my seat in my sister's basement up in Maine around 7 p.m. with pie and beer in hand. I want a good view of this one. It doesn't matter if the Pats come into this Thanksgiving night game at 9-1 or 6-4, this will be another epic chapter in the rivalry. (They won't be 6-4). The Jets will either be battling with the Pats for the division lead or battling among themselves. Either way, I still (barely) give Big Rex enough credit to think that his team will show up to play and win at home. If they can't, then that will be the best beer and pie I've ever had.

WEEK 13 @ Miami
The Pats will get a trip to South Beach to take their mind off of a tough loss. It should be just what the schedule-maker ordered. I don't know who will be playing QB for the Dolphins. I'm not even sure if they have a coach at this point. The Pats get Miami twice in the final month of the season and that's a good thing. Pats win another division game and get to 10-2.

WEEK 14 vs. Houston
The Texans are a tough team to predict for 2012. They won their first division title last year and should have taken out the Ravens in the playoffs but were on their third- or fourth-string QB and lost a tough one. Then they lost Mario Williams to the Bills. So are they still a top contender? I think so. The D is still very good and if Schaub can get back to form the offense is too. Good enough I think to sneak into Gillette and steal a game. If that happens the Pats will have lost two of their last three and the Blabosphere will be all lathered up.

WEEK 15 vs. San Francisco
The Pats will give all those lathered up blabbers and bloggers a big "calm down" the following Sunday night in a prime-time matchup with the 49ers. Another great home game. Another great December tailgate in the Enchanted Forest. And another great home win. Like last year, I expect the Pats D -- if healthy -- to begin to begin to really figure it out right about now. Old friend Randy Moss will be among the Niners testing them. I think the Pats will pass this test with a big win. 11-3.

WEEK 16 @ Jacksonville
12-3. The Jags won five games last year and Maurice Jones-Drew had a great season. And stayed healthy. That may be asking too much from him again. The Jags should be stumbling around the NFC South basement with the Colts while the Pats should be locking up the AFC East penthouse yet again. Pats go to 12-3 and clinch another division title. Hats and T-shirts.

WEEK 17 vs. Miami
For the second year in a row the schedule makers send Miami up to Foxborough as the New Year approaches. They really don't like the Dolphins. But the Pats do. There will be lots of talk about what players should rest before the playoffs. I can tell you who will rest... no one. Belichick will start them all and they Pats will wrap up another top seed at 13-3.

Optimism. It's so easy in April. Actually, with Brady and Belichick it's pretty easy in September, November, and January too.

I can't wait for Thanksgiving.