Miami ... nice

The Patriots head down to South Beach this Sunday with a chance to clinch another AFC East title. Miami is -- a little surprisingly -- the second toughest team in the division this year. Although it won't be an easy game, most Pats' fans go into contests against the team from the Sunshine State with an outlook to match. Since Tom Brady stepped on the field, the Patriots have been far superior to the Dolphins and the results have almost always reflected that.

Brady lost two of his first three starts against the Dolphins. Since then the Pats have gone 14-5 against their division rival from the land of Shaq and JLo. Sure, there was the brief period when the Miami Wildcats gave the Pats trouble and there was that late season comeback in 2004 where Brady threw two bad fourth quarter picks in a little bump in the road to the Super Bowl. But for Pats fans who have grown up with the team over the last 10 or even 20 years, the Patriots have usually gotten the best of the Dolphins. So a trip to South Beach is not something to worry about.

That was not always the case.

When I was a kid growing up in the '70s the team I hated the most was the Miami Dolphins. Not the Steelers. Not the Jets. Not the Cowboys. Not even the evil Raiders. It was the Dolphins. Why? Two words ... Don Shula. The NFL in the '70s had several legendary coaches. Landry. Noll. Grant. Coryell. Madden. I didn't have a problem with any of them. All great head coaches (and even some of the crap ones) have egos and think they are smarter than everyone else. It comes with the job. But Shula ... there was something about the way he kept reminding everyone that he thought he was the smartest guy on the field that really bothered me. It was arrogance. With a capital A. Shula -- who was also a leader on the NFL rules commission -- felt that he alone was upholding the integrity of the game. (See Snow Plow Game). It was like he invented the game. He seemed to think that his team's wins were more honorable. More special. It was like he felt his team's greatness was ordained. Let's just say he bugged me.

Which made it that much more enjoyable when his team lost. Which didn't happen that often. Miami put up the only perfect season, going 17-0 in 1972 to win the franchise's first Super Bowl. (Among all the great reasons 19-0 would have been sweet, knocking Shula and his band of egotists out of the record books was pretty high on the list.) The Dolphins beat the Patriots often during those years -- and often beat them badly. For nearly 20 years the Patriots didn't win a game at the Orange Bowl in Miami. Eighteen trips down south. Eighteen straight losses. Every year Pats fans would gather around their Zeniths and watch the Pats lose to the Dolphins in some painful, humiliating way under the Florida sun. And each time Shula would walk off the field with that smug grin.

I hated the Dolphins.

And then came the 1985 playoffs. The Patriots were trying to emerge from the slime left on them from the Ron Meyer years. I didn't think Meyer was a bad coach but it was like having a car salesman running the team. Meyer was replaced by NFL legend and true gentleman Raymond Berry and the veteran Pats responded by going 11-5 and making the playoffs. It was one of the most entertaining Pats teams ever. The team was anchored by Hall of Famer John "Hog" Hannah and veteran quarterback Steve Grogan. The team had a great running game with Craig James and Tony Collins and a veteran, opportunistic defense with guys like Steve Nelson and the other Hall of Famer Andre Tippett.

The Pats -- behind Tony Eason who had replaced an injured Grogan -- went into New York and knocked off the Jets in the first round and then flew out to Oakland and upset the Raiders in a game that ended with GM Pat Sullivan (who sits near us at Gillette these days) and linebacker Matt Millen from the Raiders getting into a fight on the field after the game. I can still remember watching the games at my brother Richie's house with my other brother and my cousins. Two victories on the road against two teams you love to beat made for two of the best Sundays we had ever enjoyed as Pats fans.

They were just a prelude to the greatest game in Pats' history -- up to that point.

The back-to-back road playoff wins earned the Pats another trip to the Orange Bowl and their first trip ever to the AFC Championship game. It was a great time to be a Patriots' fan, which was a much rarer feeling than it is these days. The Pats were the Cinderella team. The Dolphins were the evil stepmother ... and the defending AFC champs. And they had beaten the Patriots eighteen straight times at home. As we sat in my brother's den drinking cans of Busch and bottles of Heineken we knew there was a good chance it could be another painful day as a Pats' fan. You could see on Shula's face that he thought his team would demolish the  Pats. But there was something about this Cinderella team that made you believe in magic.

And magic it was. In a tropical rainstorm the Pats offense held the ball for 40 minutes, rushing for 255 yards. The defense held young phenom Dan Marino to less than 250 yards and intercepted him twice. The Pats' got to the AFC title game by forcing turnovers and they came away with six more against the almighty Dolphins. I can still remember the sight of coach Berry being hoisted up on the shoulders of his players as the clock counted down to the team's first ever AFC title. And I can still remember the moment the players let him down at midfield so he could shake Shula's hand. Shula was soaked and crushed. The underdog Pats were headed to the Super Bowl and Shula was headed to the twilight of his career. It's one of my favorite football memories.

From that moment on the rivalry that had once been dominated by the team in turquoise and orange belonged to the team in red, white, and blue. Sure, the Dolphins had a resurgence in the '90s with Jimmy Johnson and the two teams had some great battles in those years. Especially the Bledsoe vs. Marino games. But the Dolphins were no longer the dominant force in the division and haven't been that since.

That spot has belonged to the Patriots. Much to the dismay of Don Shula, I'm sure.

Week 12 rewind

When you beat your division rival 49-19 at their place on Thanksgiving night and no one gets hurt there's nothing to put in the weekly "bad" category. It really was all good. The only thing missing was Gronk joining Brady and Vince chomping on a turkey leg after the game.

So there's really not much need to look back at last Thursday's game against the Jets except when you are feeling blue and need a good laugh. Then you should look back at the Sanchez play. Other than that it's time to look ahead to the final five games of the regular season. The division is just about wrapped up but there is still a very tight battle for the second seed and a first-round bye.

Let's assume that the 10-1 Texans hold on to the top spot in the AFC. It's a pretty good bet. The question is who will be #2? At the moment it is the 9-2 Ravens. Right on their heels are the 8-3 Pats and 8-3 Broncos. How important is it to get the two seed, a week off, and home playoff game? Well, if you ask the New York Giants it's not that important at all. But the odds of making the AFC title game are much better if all you have to do is win one home game to get there. If the Giants want to try to win another Super Bowl by going 9-7 and playing three road playoff games let them.

The Ravens have stolen several close wins (like Sunday's game against the Chargers), but considering the number of key injuries the team has had on defense their 9-2 record is impressive. They hold the tie-breaker against the Pats with their win earlier in the year so they really have a two-game lead over them. That's a problem. But the Pats beat the Broncos so they have the tie-breaker against them. If all three teams ended up tied then it would go to the "conference record" tie-breaker. Right now the Pats and Ravens only have one conference loss while the Broncos have two. Who will blink first?

Here are the remaining games for each team. The games listed in green are the ones where the chance of winning has to be considered better than 80 percent. The games in red are the ones where the chance of winning is no better than 50 percent. The games in yellow are the ones that fall in between:

                    PATRIOTS                     RAVENS                        BRONCOS
Wk 13          @-Miami                       H-Pittsburgh                H-Tampa Bay
Wk 14          H-Houston                    @-Washington            @-Oakland
Wk 15          H-San Fran                   H-Denver                     @-Baltimore  
Wk 16          @-Jacksonville            H-NY Giants                H-Cleveland
Wk 17          H-Miami                        @-Cincy                        H-Kansas City

Let's go week by week.

Week 13: This weekend each team has a tough -- but winnable -- game. The Pats go down to Miami where they have had their problems over the years. And Miami is coming off a strong game against Seattle. But can the Dolphins keep pace with Brady and the offense? No. The Ravens host their arch rivals the Steelers. Pittsburgh is banged up and coming off an ugly loss to Cleveland. The Steelers will be focused and motivated to save their playoff hopes. But is it enough to go into Baltimore and win on the road? No. The Broncos host the 6-5 Bucs. Denver had problems against the worst-in-the-league Chiefs last Sunday while Tampa almost beat the 10-1 Falcons. The Bucs have the best run D in the league. I think Tampa forces Manning to make some mistakes and pulls off the upset. Three very close games that really could go either way. (Ravens 10-2, Patriots 9-3, Broncos 8-4).

Week 14: The Pats are at a severe disadvantage this week. Even though they are the only one of the three contenders at home, they have to play the Texans on Monday Night Football. It is the biggest test for the Pats this year. Houston is third in the league in total offense with a balanced attack. But the Pats are first in the league. It's on the other side of the ball that the Texans have the advantage. They are 6th in total defense. The Pats are way down the list at 27th. The Pats have to have this game to get the second seed and I think they rise to the occasion and get it. They are more accustomed to the big stage than the Texans. But confidence is not high. It's definitely a "red" game. The Ravens and Broncos go on the road against two average teams. The Ravens take on RG3 and the Skins while Manning faces off against Oakland. Those are tough road games and its very possible one of them (the Ravens) could stumble. But for the sake of argument let's say the Pats win a huge home game and the Ravens and Broncos eke out tough road wins. (Ravens 11-2, Patriots 10-3, Broncos 9-4).

Week 15: This is the week that will decide it. The Broncos go to Baltimore and if the Ravens can win they pretty much lock up the second seed because they will have beaten both the Pats and the Broncos. But what if Manning and the Denver offense can exploit the aging Raven D and get the win? That will hand the Ravens their third loss and more importantly their second in the conference. And if the Pats actually did beat the Texans the week before then all they would need to do is win a home game to pull into a tie with two weeks to go. Problem is that home game is against the San Francisco 49ers. The team with the best defense in the game. And the best rushing attack. It should be a heck of Sunday Night game. But can the Pats beat the Texans and the Niners in back-to-back weeks? I don't think so. And if they are going to lose one then the one against the NFC team is the one to lose. (Ravens, 11-3, Patriots 10-4, Broncos 10-4).

Week 16: The Ravens are at a disadvantage this week. They get the defending champion Giants at home while the Pats go on the road against the Jags and the Broncos host the Browns. Those are pretty close to sure wins for the Pats and Broncos. I think the long-haul of the season begins to catch up with the Ravens and they get beat by Little Manning and the Giants who will be fighting to win their division. Three-way tie with one week to go for the two seed. (Ravens 11-4, Patriots 11-4, Broncos 11-4).

Week 17: The Ravens are again at a disadvantage, only because the Pats and Broncos have pretty easy games at home to finish out the season. The Pats host Miami on what will probably be a frigid Saturday afternoon. The Broncos have an even easier game, hosting the soon-to-have-the-#1-pick Chiefs. Those are very likely wins, putting each team at 12-4. The Ravens have to go to Cincinnati to play the Bengals who will probably be battling for one of the wild card spots. Let's say Andy Dalton and AJ Green stay hot and hand the Ravens their third straight loss to finish 11-5. The Pats and Broncos finish tied but the Pats would get the second seed because they have the head-to-head victory. (Patriots 12-4 and the #2 seed, Broncos 12-4, Ravens 11-5).

That's one possible outcome. Of course it really is impossible to pick a winner in Broncos-Ravens, or Broncos-Bucs, or Ravens-Giants, or Pats-Niners. That's what will make these last few weeks so much fun. The Patriots, Broncos, and Ravens will lock up their division in the next two weeks, but that doesn't mean they won't have a lot to play for down the stretch. A week off and a home playoff game means a lot to all three.

Ed is O-U-T Out Out Out

Just when it looked like things couldn't get any worse for the New York Jets ... the latest news is really bad.

Fireman Ed, the team's unofficial mascot and the head shouter of the J-E-T-S chants that are so important to the team's success, is resigning his post leading the cheers for Rex Ryan's "best team I've ever had." What's next?

Fireman Ed (a.k.a. Ed Anzalone) said he wasn't taking off his helmet because the team he roots for was on the verge of becoming a laughingstock. Nope. He said he was giving up his alter ego because of the crap he was getting from other, more disgruntled Jets fans. "It's about the nastiness," Ed said. "I just think society in general ... there's no respect at all. I don't want to put up with that from people taking it out on me anymore." You know the sound you are about to hear is your franchise hitting rock bottom when the big news is that your not-really-our-mascot mascot is quitting.

And it was big news in New York. Amazingly.

Kristian Dyer wrote a column on CBS/New York that you have to read to believe. Here's the best part... "Jets games will never be the same. In all of American sports, traditions like the one that Anzalone carried on at Jets games are hard to come by, as he made going to a game a different experience. He brought the crowd to life, creating moments that were iconic and inspired goosebumps, something very unique in the fishbowl stadium experience at the Meadowlands. What 'Fireman Ed' did was unite a fan base that only seemed too eager to jeer rather than cheer, to tear down rather than build up."

If the most memorable moment of going to a Jets game was some guy in a helmet barking at the crowd to cheer louder, well... that doesn't say too much about the action on the field. There were so many stories about Ed quitting -- pro and con -- that there are too many to list. It seemed everyone had an opinion.

Including, of course, Rex Ryan.

When asked about the big news during his press conference Skinny Rex had this to say ... "I love that guy's passion and the energy he would bring. If he could play linebacker or whatever I would use him." No. Really. He said that. And he wasn't really joking.

It made me wonder what Belichick would say if he was asked about something so trivial at a press conference just a few days after his team was humiliated on national television and had its playoff hopes pretty much snuffed out.

"I don't have any information on that. Our focus is on the Dolphins. We're not worrying about things we can't control, like if Fireman Ed is going to wear his helmet or not. We'll play with the fans who give us the best chance to win."

Playoff picture

As they say on ESPN... "If the playoffs started today..."

In the AFC, the Pats would host their longtime rivals the Steelers and in the other game Peyton Manning and the Broncos would host his old team the Colts. In the NFC, the Bears would host the Seahawks in a battle of nasty defenses and the Packers would get another shot at the Giants, the team that has knocked them out of the playoffs a few times in the last several years.

That's a great Wild Card weekend. I wish the playoffs did start today.

Headline news

A picture is worth a thousand words. A great headline is worth so much more.

There was a lot of entertaining reading in the New York papers Friday morning, but this column by the Post's Steve Serby was by far the best.

Thanksgiving Day parade (of errors)

WEEK 12
The Patriots locked up another AFC East title with their Thanksgiving thrashing of Skinny Rex and the Jets. It was one of those nationally televised butt-kickings that only fans of the team doing the kicking can love. The rest of the country (and most Jets' fans) probably tuned out at halftime and turned in for their night of turkey-induced sleep.

A few weeks ago all four teams in the division were 3-3 and the Blabosphere was warning us that the Patriots were going to be in for a long struggle this season. Five weeks later the Pats (8-3) haven't lost and everyone else in the division has won only once. Game, set, division.

The Pats aren't without problems. The secondary and the pass rush are both spotty at best. They are having trouble keeping offensive linemen healthy. They don't have a deep threat on offense. And Gronk is out for at least a month. Time will tell how big those problems are. But one thing is for sure, they have more than enough talent among the players and the coaches to overcome those problems on most days. Like last night.

The score was 0-0 after the first quarter. If it wasn't for another bad Mark Sanchez pick (by Steve Gregory) deep in Pats territory the Jets would have had the lead and the momentum. But with just under six minutes to go in the opening quarter, Brady and the offense took the ball at their own 16-yard line after the interception and marched 84 yards on 15 plays for a touchdown. The camera cut to Ryan as Brady and Welker celebrated yet another TD connection and you could see he knew that his team had missed a chance to take control early. But Sanchez and the Jets responded, moving the ball to the Pats' 31-yard line where they faced a 4th-and-1. Decision time for Skinny Rex. Kick a field goal and get on the board? Or go for the first down and the tying score. Rex went for it (good choice). The next minute of football would spell the crushing end to the Jets' season and maybe -- just maybe -- the end of Skinny Rex's job as HC of the NYJ.

Shonn Greene got stuffed on the fourth down play, and as he struggled against Big Vince and the rest of the Pats D line the ball popped out of his hands and shot 15 yards downfield where Gregory grabbed it. Pats' ball. One play later, Brady threw a short out-pass to Shane Vereen and the second-year back had his biggest moment as a Pat, racing down the sideline untouched for 83 yards. And then things got really crazy.

On first down at the Jet 31, Sanchez turned to hand the ball off but missed his connection with the runner. He turned around, confused, and decided to run face-first right into the backside of one of his offensive linemen (see video above. Again and again and again ...). I've never seen a play like it. NFL Films is going to have to remake a lot of its Top 10 shows. Top 10 Funniest Plays. Top 10 Bloopers. Top 10 Worst Jets' Plays. Top 10 Plays Where The QB Runs Into His Lineman's Ass. Because all those lists now have a new #1. The force of the "hit" knocked the ball out of Sanchez's hands and Gregory scooped it up and took it 32 yards to make it 21-0. And then... on the ensuing kickoff Jets' returner Joe McKnight got whacked and the ball sailed right into the hands of Julian Edelman who raced untouched 22 yards for another touchdown. In less than a minute, the score went from "it's anyone's game" at 7-0 to "the Jets' season is ovah!" at 28-0.

The Pats passed for 323 yards and rushed for 152. That's balance. And that's the big difference between this team and last year's team. I loved BenJarvus and was sad to see him go. But Ridley has been much better. I didn't see that coming. Belichick did. When Bolden gets back from his suspension, the Pats will have four very good backs who can do a lot of different things. That was on full display during one of the most impressive drives the Pats have had in years. Late in the third quarter the Jets got a safety and then a quick touchdown to cut the lead to 35-12. Sure, still a blowout. But the offense hadn't done much since the scoring burst in the second quarter and Jets' fans were sadly starting to have hope again. My nephews and brothers all texted each other ... "Time for Brady and the offense to make a game-clinching drive." Drive they did. They jammed the ball right down the Jets' throats, going 86 yards on 17 plays, eating up nearly eight minutes of clock. And most of it was on the ground. Brady shoved his way into the end zone on a 1-yard rush and a statement had been made. The Pats can beat you in the air and on the ground. That will be a big help come January football.

And there will be January football ... again.

Now the focus turns to earning the coveted first-round bye and the even more-coveted home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Those won't be as easy to achieve as winning the AFC East. Houston sits at the top of the AFC after they pulled out a second-straight OT win early on Thanksgiving to get to 10-1. The Ravens are at 8-2 and with a game against the Chargers coming up will likely move to 9-2. And they have beaten the Pats so they actually hold a two-game lead for the second seed. The Pats have five games remaining, three of them at home. They play Miami twice and the Jags once. Very winnable games. It's the other two that will decide if the Pats will be resting on Wild Card weekend or playing at Gillette.

In a span of six days in December that Pats host the 10-1 Texans on Monday Night Football and then the 7-2-1 Niners on Sunday Night Football. As great as last night's win over the hated Jets was, it will be those two games in the frigid air at Gillette that will reveal just how good this Pats team will be in the playoffs. When you look at last night's game and the plays made by Brady, Welker, Ridley, Hernandez, Lloyd, Vereen, Woody, Spikes, Mayo, Chung, Gregory, Cunningham, McCourty, Love ... and especially Big Vince, there's plenty of reasons to believe that the Pats will be up to the challenge in those two big games ... and beyond.

Week 11 rewind

It's the dreaded short week for the Pats. Play (and win big) on Sunday and play (and hopefully win big) on Thursday night. Win two games in four days and you go from 6-3 to 8-3 and are in charge of your division. Lose two in four days and your season suddenly changes for the worse. The Pats took care of the first step Sunday with a convincing win over the surprising Colts. Is there much doubt they will take care of business against the Jets on Thanksgiving?

GOOD

• Offense, offense, offense. The Patriots are one of four teams that have a point differential of more than 100 points on the positive side. The other three teams -- Niners, Bears, Texans -- do it mostly with defense. Not that Pats. They put up lots of points. They have lots of weapons. Gronk (before he got hurt) had two more TDs. Edelman had a score. Ridley. Vereen. Throw in Welker, Lloyd, and a soon-to-return Hernandez and the offense with Brady at the helm is as good as it has ever been.
• Special teams. Julian Edelman's 68-yard punt return for a touchdown was the second big kick return this season. The other being McCourty against the Jets. Edelman had 117 yards in punt returns and McCourty added 94 yards in kick-off returns. Nothing like giving the best offense in the league great field position.
• Turnovers. The defense had four more Sunday against the Colts. They returned two of their three picks for touchdowns. The defense is still giving up too many yards and too many big plays, but the turnovers are offsetting that for now.

BAD

• Gronk broke his arm on the extra point at the end of the game. Now that's bad. There'll be lots of talk about why Belichick leaves his starters in games when they are out of reach blah blah blah. But really? Gronk breaks his arm blocking on an extra point? Has a guy ever broken his arm on an extra point? It's just bad luck. He could have just as likely broken his arm standing on the sideline.

The Gronk-less Pats head to the new Meadowlands for a Thanksgiving night clash with their enemies. It's a game all Pats fans couldn't wait for when the schedule came out. With or without Gronk, the Pats will be ready for this one.