Wild and crazy stuff

If you are a fan of the NFL the next two weekends are as good as it gets. Sure, championship weekend is a lot of fun with the best of the AFC and NFC squaring off and of course Super Bowl Sunday is a national holiday. But Wild Card weekend and the Divisional Round are the two best weekends of football. Two games Saturday. Two games Sunday. Grab a beer, some snacks, and your spot on the couch.

AFC



Cincinnati (10-6) at Houston (12-4): The Texans were the team to beat in the AFC for the first three months of the season. In December, they just turned into a beaten team. They lost three of their last four games and looked bad doing it. They were stomped by playoff team New England, Minnesota, and Indy. Can they pull it together for the playoffs? I think so, but the Bengals will certainly make it difficult for them. The Texans are 8th in the league in rushing yards and seventh in the league against the run. And they are solid in the passing game. All the talk is about Matt Schaub but he is not the key. Schaub will be lucky to get out of this game alive against the Cincy pass rush led by Geno Atkins and Michael Johnson. The key is Arian Foster. He is the best player on the field for either team (slight edge over A.J. Green). If Foster can dominate on the ground and make life easy for Schaub then Houston, with the home field, should be able to get the win. Cincy's best chance rests with Green. He's one of the top playmakers in the game. The Bengals need QB Andy Dalton and Green to have a huge game. That's going to be tough to do with J.J. Watt getting in the way. Texans 27, Bengals 24.






Indianapolis (11-5) at Baltimore (10-6): You couldn't write a script better than this. Colts coach Chuck Pagano, who missed most of the season being treated for leukemia, has returned to the sideline just in time for the playoffs. Playoffs? Playoffs? Yes, last year's worst team won a very surprising eleven games and is in the playoffs. And they are playing the Ravens in Baltimore. The team that Pagano was a defensive coach with for four years. And the Ravens' Ray Lewis, who is very close with Pagano, has announced that he will retire when the Ravens season ends. Talk about your story lines. The Ravens are like the Texans, they have stumbled towards the playoffs, losing four of their last five games. And their defense is no longer elite. Old and injured, but not elite. So the question is can the Colts led by rookie QB Andrew Luck and a young group of players go on the road and beat the veteran, this-might-be-our-last-chance Ravens? I don't think so. Ray Lewis won't be winning a title in his last game, but he won't be losing at home either. Ravens 23, Colts 17.

NFC





Minnesota (10-6) at Green Bay (11-5): This is the one man vs. the team game. Vikings running back Adrian Peterson came back from major knee surgery to post one of the greatest seasons in NFL history, coming up just nine yards short of the single-season record for yards rushing. He is the Vikings. Just like Aaron Rodgers is the Packers. It's a great running game vs. a great passing game. The difference is that Rodgers has a lot more help around him than Peterson. Jennings, Cobb, Jones, Nelson, Finley. And the Green Bay defense is better than the Minnesota defense. And the game is being played at Lambeau Field. The Pack won the title two years ago. They are still a serious contender. Packers 30, Vikings 20.




Seattle (11-5) at Washington (10-6): Two of the most exciting and surprising teams in the league meet up in the first round. It should be a great game. It's a rare thing when two rookie quarterbacks play each other in the playoffs. RG3 and Russell Wilson are rookies in name only. They are the "new breed" of quarterback that can run and throw on a dime. Of course there have always been quarterbacks like that (ever hear of Randall Cunningham) but that's OK. It makes for a good headline. All the attention will be on  the quarterbacks but it's the running backs that will decide the game. The two runners that I had on my fantasy team -- Seattle's beast Marshawn Lynch vs. Washington's beast Alfred Morris -- will set the tone early and often. It's a tough decision as to which back will prevail. I'll go with the home team again. Redskins 21, Seahawks 20.

Twelve for the tourney

Like most football fans, I enjoy the NFL rankings that are on most sports websites each week. The Pats always being near the top helps of course. But it's just one of the things about the NFL that makes it fun. Everyone has their opinion on who is the top team, who is the 15th best, and who is the worst. So who's No. 1? We'll find out for sure come the first Sunday in February. These are the twelve that have a shot at the title. The last time all twelve playoff teams had ten wins or more was 2005. That's another great thing about the NFL. The league is deep. All twelve teams really do have a shot.

1. New England Patriots (12-4): Yes. I'm a Pats fan. I'm biased. But be honest. If the Patriots and any of the other teams on this list both played their absolute best games, do you really think the Pats would lose? Well, I don't. The Denver Broncos, led by the elder Manning, are better statistically on defense and are pretty even on offense so they will get the nod on most rankings heading into the playoffs. Brady vs. Manning is a wash. But do the Broncos have Welker, Gronk, Hernandez, Lloyd, Ridley, Woody, Mankins, Big Vince, Mayo, Jones, Ninko, Spikes, and Hightower? No. And that's a deep list of playmakers. Oh, and the Pats have Bill Belichick coaching and the Broncos have John Fox.

2. Denver Broncos (13-3): So now it's the other Manning's turn again. Great. The return to form of one of the game's all-time best is one of the 2012 season's top stories. The Broncos were a pretty decent team last year, even with Tim Tebow at quarterback. With Peyton Manning, they are a true contender. After losing to the Pats in Week 5 to fall to 2-3 the Broncos have won eleven in a row. But only two of those teams (Cincy and Baltimore) were playoff teams. Still, eleven in a row is eleven in a row. And Denver has home field. That's huge because it's a very tough place to play. Young receivers Demayrius Thomas and Eric Decker have blossomed with Manning, each having more than 1,000 yards receiving. The defense has been good for a few years now.

3. San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1): I saw the Niners get pushed around by Seattle too. You know what? They won't be playing in Seattle if they meet in the playoffs. San Francisco had a few surprising struggles this year, particularly an 0-1-1 record against the St. Louis Rams. And they let the Patriots score 28 straight points against them. But they are the best running team in the league and the best team against the run. And they can play anywhere. Under coach Jim Harbaugh the Niners have become a smash-mouth throwback. Young QB Colin Kaepernick is the big question mark. Can he make the right decisions in a playoff game? If he can the Niners are going to the Super Bowl.

4. Atlanta Falcons (13-3): Can the Falcons get over the playoff hump? That's the question that will hover over this team while they enjoy their bye week. Matt Ryan and his team are 0-3 in the playoffs. But once again they have home-field advantage, although that doesn't really help you if you keep losing the first playoff game each year. Ryan has two great receivers in Julio Jones and Roddy White and he has veteran hall of fame tight end Tony Gonzalez. Running back Michael Turner had ten touchdowns but he wasn't the force he usually is. And the defense is average at best. But Atlanta is due to win a playoff game. Right?

5. Green Bay Packers (11-5): It would not surprise me at all to see Aaron Rodgers hoisting the trophy at the end again. The Packers won the title two years ago, went 15-1 last year, and if it wasn't for the fake refs would be enjoying a first-round bye. Green Bay's offense is like the Patriots. Rodgers has many weapons to throw too. Jennings. Cobb. Jones. Nelson. Finley. The defense is strong against the pass with linebackers A.J. Hawk and Clay Matthews leading the way. The Packers have a chip on their shoulder from their one-and-done last year. That won't happen this year.

6. Seattle Seahawks (11-5): I had Pete Carroll and his Seahawks ranked near the bottom before the season started. Mostly out of spite. And also because I didnt know that he had built one of the best secondaries in the game. And in today's pass-happy NFL, if you can stop the pass you can win. Often. And if you can run the ball you can win even more. The Seahawks, behind the beast Marshawn Lynch, can run the ball right down your throat. If rookie QB Russell Wilson can make plays then this is a dangerous team. The big question is can they win on the road.

7. Houston Texans (12-4): The enigma of the twelve. The top team in the AFC for most of the year got whacked by the Patriots on a Sunday night game and never really recovered, losing three of their last four. But there's a reason the Texans were dominant for most of the season. Arian Foster on offense and J.J. Watt on defense. When you have two playmakers like that you are good. Add solid QB Matt Schaub and veteran wide receiver Andre Johnson and you have a balanced attack. The problem for Houston is they are not that good against the pass and when you have Tom Brady and Peyton Manning in your conference you probably aren't going to the Super Bowl.

8. Washington Redskins (10-6): I love this team. RG3. Alfred Morris. Pierre Garcon. They can beat you up. What don't I love about this team? Mike Shanahan. I know he has two rings, but he's crazy. If I'm a Skins fan I'm hoping Shanahan doesn't get too smart for his own good. Hand the ball to Alfred Morris and when the D fills the box to stop him let RG3 do his thing. The Skins D tightened up in the last month of the season. The Skins have the feel of this year's Giants. If they can win that first playoff game they could be tough to stop.

9. Baltimore Ravens (10-6): The Ravens, on the other hand, you want to play. They are a mess. Predictions are so often wrong that when you actually get one right it almost makes you feel like you know what your talking about. With five weeks to go in the season and the Ravens sitting at 10-2, I thought the Ravens would only win one more game and finish 11-5. I came pretty close. They finished 10-6. Even worse than I thought. But they are playing for Ray Lewis who announced this week he's retiring when the playoffs end. He'll be home for good pretty soon.

10. Indianapolis Colts (11-5): Did anybody see this coming? Did any "expert" predict the Colts to win more than five or six games this year? I doubt it. The Colts have been one of the best stories of the season. Their first-year coach Chuck Pagano missed most of the season as he was being treated for leukemia but the team rallied around him and play way over its head. Most of that was because top pick Andrew Luck showed why he was the top pick. But that's really where the positive news ends. The Colts are the only playoff team that allowed more points than it allowed (30). Not even the Vikings did that. The Colts are the Cinderella story coming into the playoffs. It's almost midnight.

11. Cincinnati Bengals (10-6): Maybe Marv Lewis isn't that bad of a coach after all. Maybe he just needed some players who had more talent than mouth. Like AJ Green. The guy is a beast. The Pats don't have anyone who can cover him. The Bengals also have old friend BenJarvus. Bennie's streak without a fumble ended this year but his streak of playing solid ball did not. Oh, and they led the  league in sacks for most of the year. You really don't want  to play them. But the Bengals under Lewis have a history of losing games they should win.

12. Minnesota Vikings (10-6): Two words: Adrian Peterson. That's what the Vikings are all about. If you can stop the league's comeback player of the year then the Vikes have zero chance. Their quarterback is Christian Ponder. No. Really. And Ponder doesn't have any real receiving threats. Minnesota is next to last in the league in passing and mediocre in all phases of defense. I'm not even sure how they won ten games and made the playoffs. I think the Bears, Cowboys, and Giants are all better than the Vikings. Minnesota will be joining them on the sidelines very soon.

Dishonorable mention: The New York Giants are not in the playoffs! The New York Giants are not in the playoffs! Man it feels good to write that. The defending champs were looking good at 6-2 but they fell apart in the second half of the season to finish 9-7. Eli Manning hit the wall and Tom Coughlin's team looked disorganized and had too many turnovers, drops, and plain old sloppy play. The Giants are not in the playoffs!

Week 11 rewind

It's the dreaded short week for the Pats. Play (and win big) on Sunday and play (and hopefully win big) on Thursday night. Win two games in four days and you go from 6-3 to 8-3 and are in charge of your division. Lose two in four days and your season suddenly changes for the worse. The Pats took care of the first step Sunday with a convincing win over the surprising Colts. Is there much doubt they will take care of business against the Jets on Thanksgiving?

GOOD

• Offense, offense, offense. The Patriots are one of four teams that have a point differential of more than 100 points on the positive side. The other three teams -- Niners, Bears, Texans -- do it mostly with defense. Not that Pats. They put up lots of points. They have lots of weapons. Gronk (before he got hurt) had two more TDs. Edelman had a score. Ridley. Vereen. Throw in Welker, Lloyd, and a soon-to-return Hernandez and the offense with Brady at the helm is as good as it has ever been.
• Special teams. Julian Edelman's 68-yard punt return for a touchdown was the second big kick return this season. The other being McCourty against the Jets. Edelman had 117 yards in punt returns and McCourty added 94 yards in kick-off returns. Nothing like giving the best offense in the league great field position.
• Turnovers. The defense had four more Sunday against the Colts. They returned two of their three picks for touchdowns. The defense is still giving up too many yards and too many big plays, but the turnovers are offsetting that for now.

BAD

• Gronk broke his arm on the extra point at the end of the game. Now that's bad. There'll be lots of talk about why Belichick leaves his starters in games when they are out of reach blah blah blah. But really? Gronk breaks his arm blocking on an extra point? Has a guy ever broken his arm on an extra point? It's just bad luck. He could have just as likely broken his arm standing on the sideline.

The Gronk-less Pats head to the new Meadowlands for a Thanksgiving night clash with their enemies. It's a game all Pats fans couldn't wait for when the schedule came out. With or without Gronk, the Pats will be ready for this one.

An early feast

WEEK 11
Patriots 59, Colts 24 (11/18/'12): When it comes to tailgating, every day is Thanksgiving.

Although the holiday wasn't till later in the week (Did someone say there's a Pats game that night, too?), the turkey fryer was put into action in the Enchanted Forest. Not for turkey. There'll be plenty of that later. This time it was used to make rotini for pasta bolognese with sausage. The portable stove was also fired up for the garlic bread. What's better than a crisp, November day for a little Italian feast? Nothing.

And what's better than a crisp, November day for a Pats blowout of the Colts at Gillette? Nothing.

In a battle of 6-3 teams, the Pats showed why they have been near the top of the NFL for a decade and why the Colts are still a team in rebuilding mode. Although it sure didn't look like that at the end of the first quarter as rookie phenom Andrew Luck had his team ahead 14-7, engineering two scoring drives on his team's first two possessions. Luck opened with a seven-play, 80-yard drive and followed that up with 10-play, 84-yard drive. The Pats secondary didn't look any better with new cornerback Aqib Talib making his first start. Not any better at all.

That all changed in the second quarter, a second quarter that could be looked at as a turning point in the regular season. If the Pats continued to let the Colts have their way with them and lost at home to fall to 6-4, they could be fighting for their playoff lives down the stretch. And that's what makes Belichick's teams as good as they are. When those moments arrive, they very often respond. Julian Edelman -- who had a monster day that should quiet most of those who questioned why Belichick was trying to use him more -- returned a punt for 68 yards and caught a touchdown pass. He finished with more than 200 total yards. A Troy Brown-like performance. Brady had another MVP game, throwing for 331 yards, three touchdowns, and no picks. There are a lot of solid MVP candidates this year (Luck being one), but is there really anyone who should be ranked ahead of Brady? 21 touchdowns and only three picks with an offensive line that has not been healthy all year. He has a great group of talent around him, but Brady -- like Big Vince on the other side of the ball -- is the one who elevates everyone else's game. That is the definition of an MVP.

It was another outstanding day for the offense, but it also turned into a very good day for the defense as well. After giving up touchdowns on the first two drives, the D only allowed Luck and the Colts 10 more points. Not only that, the defense scored two touchdowns. Rookie Alfonzo Dennard -- who seems about to take over for Arrington if he hasn't already -- returned a pick 87 yards for a touchdown. Talib, who had his ups and downs in his first game as a Patriot, had one very big up with a sensational 59-yard interception return that came right after Edelman's kick return. Luck did throw for more than 300 yards (I guess that's just a given against the Pats D), but the defense kept pressure on him and forced four more turnovers. It wasn't perfect, but it was good enough. And that's what the team needs from the defense.

It was an entertaining home game that included lots of big plays and the return of Billy (his son's football team's great season sadly over) to the tailgate. That meant everything seafood, including scallops wrapped in bacon. A great day of football and food. I'll be ready for a lot more of both in just a few days.

Just their Luck

Just when it looked like one of the best rivalries in football had run its course ... the Colts are back.

When the schedule came out in the spring, tomorrow's game was probably the least appealing home game on the list. Arizona would have had that honor but the Cardinals were coming for the home opener. Always look forward to the home opener no matter who the opponent is. But the Colts in the chill of late November didn't look all that enticing. The Colts who won two games last year. The Colts who no longer have Peyton Manning at quarterback. The Colts who the Pats beat pretty easily last year.

It was clearly going to be all about the tailgating.

Then something unexpected happened. Andrew Luck -- the top player taken in the draft and the reason the Colts felt they could let the greatest player in franchise history leave -- started to play up to those impossible expectations. The rookie has led his team to five wins in the last six games and has the Colts sitting at 6-3. Just like the Patriots. Suddenly this has become a very interesting game and a very big challenge for the Pats' challenged pass defense.

The rivalry between the Pats and the Colts has been one of the best NFL story lines of the past decade. The two teams have staged some epic battles during that time. There was that 4th-and-2 game. And the greatest game I have ever had the good fortune to have a ticket for.

Patriots-Colts. Brady vs. Luck. It's the game of the week again. Just as it should be.

Are you mocking me?

Mock draft.

Those two words together only mean something to NFL fans. And at this time of the year (i.e. less than a week till the NFL Draft begins) some fans can't get enough of them. Go to NFL.com, any of the 52 ESPN sites, SI.com, or any other sports website and you will see more mock drafts than there are players available.

Most mock drafts stop after the first-round. Andrew Luck is going #1 in all of them. Many of the experts have the Pats trading away at least one of their two first-round picks (#27 and #31). That's a pretty safe guess. The Patriots have just six picks (as of noon on Monday) in this year's draft. A much lower number than in the past several years. But they have two in the first and two in the second. That's where it counts.

So who would I like to see the Pats select with those six picks? Let's pretend for a moment that Belichick actually uses all those picks (that's why it's called mock), I think they should all -- all -- be on the defensive side of the ball. The Pats are very deep at offensive line (even if Light really is retired), very very deep at wide receiver now that they have about a dozen signed, they drafted two running backs last year and there are plenty of free agent veterans out there (Ryan Grant), and of course they have the best quarterback and tight ends in the game. The offense is deep and talented.

The defense is not. But if they can add these guys it would sure help.

Round 1, Pick #27 overall
Dont'A Hightower, inside linebacker, Alabama
You can't go wrong taking a Crimson Tide linebacker. Especially one coached by Nick Saban. Hightower has been jumping all over the first round in mock drafts. A week ago one had him going as high as #13 to the Jets. Others having him going to Pittsburgh at #23 or to the Giants in the last pick of the first round. I'm hoping he slides to the Pats at #27. Hightower is 6-2 and is quite a passing obstacle with his arms raised, which is key in a league where knocking down passes continues to grow in importance. Add Hightower to a linebacker corps of Mayo, Spikes, and Ninko and the Pats could go back to the 3-4.

Round 1, Pick #31
Harrison Smith, safety, Notre Dame
Many mock drafts have targeted Smith for the Patriots. For good reason. Put him next to Chung and behind Mayo and Hightower and suddenly the middle of the Pats D looks a little nasty. Also 6-2, Smith is known as being equally tough against the run as he is against the pass. There hasn't been a lot of good things to see when watching the Irish the past few years, but Smith was one of them. He is a playmaker who scouts say has a great mind for the game. Belichick has to like the sound of that.

Round 2, Pick #48
Devon Still, defensive tackle, Penn St.
There's a reason most mock drafts end after one round. Who the heck knows who will be available at the #48 spot? But if Devon Still is still available he would be a great young D lineman to grab. He's 6-5 (yes, the  Pats D needs to heighten) and NFL.com says he is "the most NFL-ready interior lineman of this year's senior class." He's the type of player who can go head-to-head with NFL offensive linemen and actually knock them off the ball. Still would be a steal at this pick and give the team a young player at every level of the D.

Round 2, Pick #62
Chandler Jones, defensive end, Syracuse
More defense please. Where Still would be considered a safe pick, Jones would be considered more of a risk here. He's 6-5 but only 245. A little undersized, but maybe Big Vince can help him with that. He's the classic Belichick pick because he has a lot of talent but suffered a knee injury that slowed his progress and lowered his profile.

Round 3, Pick #93
Trevin Wade, cornerback, Arizona
I want the Pats to take three defensive backs, two defensive lineman, and a linebacker. So that means these last two picks should go safety or corner. Let's start with corner. Trevin Wade is 5-10 with speed. He was a hot prospect till his play dipped as a junior in the passing PAC-12. He's known as a solid cover corner when he is interested. Playing for the Pats might get him interested.

Round 4, Pick #126
Casey Hayward, cornerback, Vanderbilt
I think the Pats go corner here again instead of safety. Belichick has to be thinking that McCourty may end up playing a lot of safety as he did near the end of last season. That means you are going to need more options at corner. Hayward would definitely add to your options. Scouting reports say he has speed speed and more speed. NFL.com says "he can run with any receiver in the SEC." Those guys in the SEC are fast. Hayward also seems to have the savvy and confidence that are rare in young players.

Six picks. Use them all on defense and really hit on three of them and the Pats will be pretty tough to beat... even for little Manning and the Giants.

Of course, what will actually happen is that Belichick will trade one his first picks for a third and a first next year and then trade his other third -round pick this year for a fifth this year and a second next year and then he will trade ...