Bowling team

The NFL named its AFC and NFC Pro Bowl teams this week. The Patriots had six players honored. The game -- usually played after the Super Bowl in Hawaii -- will be played on the Sunday between the conference championship games and the Super Bowl this year. Not sure why. Just another bad idea by Commissioner Goodell motivated by what he thinks the fans want. The players on the Super Bowl teams will not take part in the game. Here's hoping the Pats players named to the team don't get to see Diamond Head this year.

The obvious pick was Tom Brady. This is the first in what will be a long line of honors regardless of how the team does in the playoffs. He has had a historic year. It's as if he took that ranking in the NFL's 100 Greatest Players personally. I know I did.

Rookie Devin McCourty was a somewhat surprising pick -- not because he doesn't deserve it -- but because the Pro Bowl selections are often made on reputation and he doesn't have one yet. Well, now he does. The first-round pick out of Rutgers has played as well at the hardest position in football as I've seen in a long time. Third-year linebacker Jerod Mayo and safety Brandon Meriweather also made the team. Mayo is completely back from the injury that slowed him last year. He may not make the flashy plays like Bruschi did, but he's around the ball all the time. Meriweather is also around the ball all the time and he delivers some of the hardest hits in the game -- legal and not. Unfortunately he sometimes delivers those hits to teammates.

Offensive lineman and recluse Logan Mankins was one of those reputation selections. He was picked for the third time in his career even though he missed the first half of the season because he didn't like the new contract the Pats offered him. When this season is over, re-signing Mankins has to be priority #1.

During the last offseason, priority #1 was re-signing the Big Man. Vince Wilfork. The deal got done, making him one of the highest paid players in the league. It was the moment that set the tone for the success that has followed this year. Giving athletes their big pay day -- deserved or not -- often leads to the beginning of the end for that player. The history of sports is littered with guys who got the cash and hit the beach -- or the buffet. But not Big Vince. He has had his best season ever. Defensive linemen have been going down all around him and Wilfork hasn't missed a beat. He's still an immovable object in the middle but has switched more to play end this year than ever in his career. He is the foundation that this whole team rests on.

The team was in need of someone to take the "Patriot Way" leadership mantle from Tedy Bruschi.

The Big Man is that guy. This won't be his last Pro Bowl season.

Bringing it home

WEEK 16
The day after Christmas is usually one of relaxing, returning gifts, digesting the holiday meal, and -- in my case -- working. The newspaper comes out every day. You know. Newspapers. Remember?

WEEK 16: Finishing strong.

I knew I would be driving my way through a blizzard to and from work but that was OK because there would be lots of great sports radio to listen to because the Patriots had gone into usually snowy Buffalo and thumped the Bills 34-3 to wrap up the AFC East and homefield throughout the playoffs.

Each year Mark and I say there are three goals for the regular season: 1. Win your division. 2. Earn a first-round bye. 3. Get homefield advantage. Check. Check. Check. Rex Ryan always skips those goals and goes right to winning the Super Bowl. Which explains why the Jets are runners-up in the division yet again.

The Patriots jumped all over the Bills early, putting up 27 points in the first half. Brady threw three more TDs while BenJarvis broke 100 yards rushing. Woody came close too, putting up 93 yards. It was a solid offensive performance. But it was the defense that was the story, forcing seven turnovers. Since starting the season giving up points and yards in healthy doses, the youngest defense in the league has started to cut down on both. Since the first half of the Thanksgiving game in Detroit, the D has given up very few big plays and even fewer points. It's key to the team's playoff hopes. The offense will be able to make plays when the games get even tougher. The question all year has been will the defense be able to? As of the moment, the answer is looking like yes.

There's one more home game to go in the regular season -- the day after New Year's against Miami. It should be fun, although probably frigid. It will be good practice for the playoffs at Gillete, where the Patriots will play all their games for as long as they are alive.

Pack it up

WEEK 15
I took my first DNP of the year for last night's Pats' victory. A sore throat and a Christmas tree that needed decorating with my daughters kept me on the couch for what was expected to be an easy win against the Packers. Anyone who doesn't know by now just hasn't been paying attention... there are no easy wins in the NFL.

Matt Flynn (no relation, because apparently he can throw a spiral) played the role of a young Tom Brady against the real -- if a little older -- thing. And he almost pulled it out the win. But the Patriots rallied from nine down in the fourth quarter to claim a key victory that moves them one step closer to the AFC's top seed.

WEEK 15: Season's greetings.

Shep texted me as he entered the stadium "No traffic. Great tailgate. Great weather. Should be a great game." That seems to be the only kind the Patriots are playing this year.

The Packers -- without starting QB Aaron Rodgers -- were not being given a chance to give the Pats a game. But Green Bay is an NFC playoff contender with one of the best defenses in the league. It was going to be a battle. The Pack started with an onside kick and continued to put the pressure on the whole game. After a few blowouts, a battle was a good challenge for the Patriots. Once again, they met the challenge and won.

Brady continued his streak of great games, throwing two more touchdowns and making very few mistakes. Bennie and Woody averaged more than six yards a carry. The offensive line kept the QB alive against a fierce Packer pass rush. And the defense did just enough against Flynn. (One benefit of not going to the game was not having to sit with 60-plus thousand yelling "Flynn. You suck!") My namesake put up 250 yards but gave up a key interception that Kyle Arrington took back 36 yards for a touchdown. Arrington's pick was just another example of a Patriot stepping up and making a big play. It's the difference between this year's team and 2009.

Maybe the biggest big play of the year was made by one of the biggest men.

Flynn led the Pack on an impressive six-minute touchdown drive to take a 17-7 lead late in the first half. The Patriots needed someone to step up again. Right guard Dan Connolly turned out to be that guy -- by making a 71-yard kickoff return.  A kickoff return! All the way down to the Green Bay 4-yard line. It was the longest return by an offensive lineman in the history of the league. I'm guessing by quite a few yards, too.

The Pack's kicker squibbed the ball down the middle of the field and it bounced into the hands of the big blocker. As Connolly wrapped the ball in a bear hug and started to run, my daughter Amy and I started shouting "Go down! Go down!" for fear that he would fumble. Suddenly Connolly got near midfield and realized that everyone was waiting for him to go down -- including the Packers. So he tucked the ball under his right arm and started rumbling down the field. "Run! Run!" we started yelling. He stiff-armed a would-be tackler at the Pack 30 and then made a move -- that's right a move -- inside the 15 before being taken down just short of the goal line.

My phone buzzed with a text from Mark. "That has got to one of the ten best plays in the team's history. Right?" I replied yes. If he had scored it would be top five. Flynn tried to lead a game-winning drive and made it all the way down to the Pats 15, but it ended with Tully Banta-Cain knocking the ball loose and Big Vince recovering the fumble to put the Pack away.

As I flipped through the post-game highlights and "analysis," I came upon Felger asking Tweedledum and Tweedledum (Curren and Borges) if the loss was a reminder to all those who thought the Patriots were going to waltz their way to Dallas. Of course Borges couldn't wait to pounce on that, once again offering caution to all those kool-aid guzzling fans that the 11-2 Pats are very beatable. Problem is that I don't know of any fans who were under the delusion that the Pats had already earned a ticket to the Super Bowl. That's -- as usual -- total media hype. Have they looked good the last month? Hell ya. But there are lots of tough games still ahead.

Starting Sunday in the iceland that is Buffalo.

Great expectations

My drive home from work usually involves listening to DA on 98.5. His is the one sports-talk show I make a point of checking out. I like Dale and Holley and sometimes I enjoy letting Felger entertain me. But when it comes to actual sports talk and analysis, DA's evening show is the place to go.

Last night he was talking about the Pats' season and what, going forward, would be considered a successful one. DA felt that even were the Patriots to lose their last three games and then get knocked out in their first playoff game it would still be a successful season. a good building block year. I couldn't agree with that one. If we were talking about the Chiefs or the Jags, then maybe. But if the Pats lose their next four games it would actually be the low point in the Belichick era. A total disaster. It's not going to happen anyway.

Then I switched to the old WEEI 850 over on AM. Someone was filling in for Mike Adams, who is always good for a few laughs. Not sure who the fill-in guy was but he offered his take on what would be considered a successful season. "If the Pats don't win the Super Bowl this season will be a major disappointment," he said. "Anything less than that would be a failure." The polar opposite opinion. Also one I can't agree with.

So what are the expectations now that the Patriots are sitting at 11-2 after dismantling the Bears in the snow?

Well, if the season doesn't end like last year, when the Ravens handed Brady and Belichick their worst playoff defeat by far, it will be a big improvement. The Patriots are almost sure to get a first-round bye, unlike last year. That means they will be rested and confident coming into their first playoff game at home, unlike last year. One win and the Pats will advance to their sixth AFC title game in a decade. A game that very likely will be at home.

Make it to the AFC title game. That's what I'm hoping for. And expecting. Everything from that point on would be just another joy ride for Pats fans. If the title game is at home the Pats will be the favorite. But it will be against any one of several very good teams... the Steelers, the Colts, the Jets ... or the Ravens. Any of those teams can come into Gillette and knock off the Pats. (Another shot at the Ravens would be sweet -- although they are the team that still scares me the most).

But Brady is playing the best football of his Hall of Fame career and is surrounded by a well-coached, disciplined, focused, aggressive group of teammates on both sides of the ball. It would be hard to imagine them losing in their first playoff game like they did last year. Every team that makes the playoffs (except the NFC West champ) will be a very good team and capable of getting hot and going to Dallas. That said, it's hard to picture the Pats getting upset at home in the second round. They have been tested too many times this year and passed almost all of them.

The team has overcome key injuries, won huge game after huge game in almost every way possible, and very rarely beat itself. They look playoff ready. One home playoff win and me, Shep, Mark, Matt, and Bergs will be getting ready for tailgating at the AFC title game -- again. That would be a successful season in my mind.

Let it snow. Let it snow. Let it snow.

WEEK 14
Is there any chance there will be a freak snowstorm in Dallas on Super Bowl Sunday? If so, and they decide to keep the roof open, the Patriots are going to be tough to beat. Of course that's getting ahead of things. Just a little.

WEEK 14: Winter wonderland.

The Pats' 36-7 stomping of the Bears in a driving Chicago blizzard combined with the Jets loss at home to Miami suddenly put the Pats in total control of their division and the all-important first-round bye. Just a week ago the Pats and Jets were both 9-2 and battling for the top of the AFC. Now the Pats sit at 11-2 while New York has stumbled to 9-4. Like the New England weather, things change quickly in the NFL.

I've been to many of the Pats memorable snow games. The Snow Bowl. The snowball game. Both playoff games against the Colts. But yesterday I was glad to be sitting on the couch in my parent's warm den, drinking beer and eating pizza with my nephew Steve. He too had been to one of the snow games of the past few years. He too was glad to be warm and dry and watching the snow on the television. It was a great show.

On the anniversary of the '82 Snow Plow game (yes, there are a lot of "snow" nicknames), the Pats plowed over the ferocious Bears defense with almost 500 yards of offense. I thought last year's game in the snow against Tennessee was a ridiculous offensive performance in ridiculous weather. Yesterday's was even better because it was against a defense that was allowing only 17 points per game in good weather. Tom Brady has completed his evolution from young star to veteran leader. He looks like Larry Bird in his prime. He's the best and he knows it. And he makes everyone on his team that much better. NFL Network might want to revise its list of top 100 players right now and move Brady up a few spots. Just a few.

I had started BenJarvis Green-Ellis on my fantasy team figuring in such brutal conditions that he would get the ball all day. (I benched Darren McFadden who put up 40 points. I won't be winning coach of the year in my league). So what did the Pats do? They came out in the shotgun. I should have known. BenJarvis and the running game was great, but it was Brady and the passing game that set the tone from start to finish. Again. Brady didn't spread the ball around quite as much this time. He mostly focused on Welker and Branch, with each catching eight passes. Those are two clutch receivers to have heading into the playoffs. Brady opened the game by leading the offense on scoring drives of 12 and 11 plays. By the time he hit Branch for a 59-yard touchdown on the last play of the half the game was over at 33-0.

Like the game against the Jets, the second half became a test of how mentally tough the defense has become. The answer is very tough. Even with rookie-of-the-year candidate Devin McCourty on the sideline with an injury (which I only knew because Steve read it on Yahoo, not because announcers Jim Nance or Phil Simms noticed he was missing), the young defense was stronger and faster than the Bears at every turn. The defense forced four turnovers, one of which was a fumble recovery that Gary Guyton took in for a touchdown. Guyton was filling in for suspended rookie Brandon Spikes. That's the kind of year it's been. A Patriot gets suspended and his replacement scores a touchdown.

That's how the team has survived injuries to key starters and a schedule that saw them playing -- and beating -- just about every playoff contender in the AFC.  Week after week different players have stepped up. Regardless of the opponent. Regardless of the weather.

Who will step up next week at home against Green Bay? That's just as important of a question as what will we prepare for our tailgate feast? It's the Packers. Cheese must be involved. Lots of it. But hopefully no snow. Till the playoffs that is.

Here's a great video on the '82 Snow Plow game. The fact that years later Don Shula still loses sleep over this makes me happy to no end.

PATRIOTS VS. DOLPHINS SNOW PLOW GAME

Stretch drive

The NFL has hit the three-quarter point of the season. Just four games left to determine which teams will make the playoffs and which will be in planning-for-the-draft mode. Some teams, like the Patriots, are pretty much assured of making the postseason, it's just a matter of deciding where and when they'll play. However, not every playoff team is in the top 10. The AFC West and South and, of course, the NFC West are led by teams that will be playing in January but shouldn't be, while some of the teams on this list will be home. That's why the Pats win over the Jets was so big. It's called controlling your own destiny.

1. New England Patriots (10-2): I had high hopes for the Pats this season. But this is ridiculous. 45-3 over the Jets. Big road wins in Pittsburgh, San Diego, and Miami. Tough conference wins against Baltimore and Indy. 10-2. They have met every challenge head on and won most of them. The road gets even tougher, if that's possible. But that's OK because Tom Brady, officially in the prime of his career, is playing out of his mind.

2. Atlanta Falcons (10-2): Mattie Ice. The Falcons QB has moved into the top tier at his position this season with several come-from-behind victories. Kevin Turner and the running game supply the thunder to Ryan and the passing game's lightning. Throw in the defense that is 8th in the league against the run and 7th in points allowed and Atlanta is a serious threat to dethrone the defending NFC champ Saints. Especially if they have home-field advantage, where they never lose.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3): Big Ben had his nose broken last week against the Ravens, was harassed all game, and still made huge play after huge play. I don't give him the respect a two-time Super Bowl champ deserves. Maybe I should. Late in the game Baltimore linebacker Terrell Suggs had him for what would have been a big sack but Roethlisberger stiffed armed his way out of it, threw the ball away, and then made the winning TD pass on the next play. The Steelers should earn a bye.

4. New Orleans Saints (9-3): The defending champs have had a very challenging season, and still they have only lost three times. The Saints are starting to get healthy again and Drew Brees is starting to look less like Drew Bledsoe in the past few weeks. Running backs Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas are back to take some of the heat off Brees. The Saints won it all last year with one of the worst defenses in the league. This year they are 5th in points allowed. The Saints won't give up their title easily.

5. New York Jets (9-3): Losses don't come any uglier than what the Jets endured in Gillette. But that was the Jets first road loss this season. And you know if they should return to Foxborough in January they won't be afraid. That said, the Jets offense has some serious issues and it's not all Mark Sanchez's fault. LT is beginning to do his usual late season fade. The offensive play calling is aggressive at the wrong time and conservative at the wrong time. The Jets will have to win some road playoff games again. They can do that.

6. Baltimore Ravens (8-4): The Ravens had a chance to sweep the Steelers and put a lock on the AFC North, only to see Troy Palamalu's hair cause a big fumble that cost them the game. But they are still the team in the AFC that scares me the most come playoff time. Hopefully they don't make it out of the first round. Their offense, which was supposed to get better with the addition of Anquan Boldin, is actually not as tough as it was last year. Maybe there is something to this thing about the focus on a deep threat holding back on offense.

7. Green Bay Packers (8-4): They are one game behind Chicago in the NFC North, but I rank da Pack ahead of da Bears. We'll see if I'm right, as the Pats play them in back-to-back weeks. Aaron Rodgers continues to have a great season despite no running game. But it's the pounding defense, allowing a league best 14 points per game, that should allow the Pack to win the NFC's black and blue division. That seems fitting.

8. Chicago Bears (9-3): Can a team coached by a guy named Lovie really win it all? No. The Bears are on a nice five-game winning streak heading into their clash with the Pats at frigid Soldier Field this weekend. But don't let that fool you. Jay Cutler is still the kind of QB that will kill his team when it counts. The Bears also have a great defense, leading the league in sacks, but the offensive line is also leading the lead in sacks... sacks allowed that is. That is not a formula for success.

9. Philadelphia Eagles (8-4): The Eagles and dog-lover Michael Vick are the darlings of the football talk shows on ESPN and the NFL Network. But please stop with the Vick MVP talk. Have you been watching Tom Brady? That's your MVP. But the dog whsiperer is having a great year and is sure fun to watch. Can he make the big plays in the postseason? That will be the key for Andy Reid. Then again, that was the key when Donovan McNabb was the QB. And we all know what the answer was all those years.

10. Kansas City Chiefs (8-4): My preseason pick for AFC surprise team continues to surprise. Each week I see predictions that the almighty Chargers are going to win the West. Each week the Chiefs remain at the top. If they split their last four games to go 10-6 they will take the division crown and be one tough team to play at home in the first round. Matt Cassell had an emergency appendectomy this week. The timing couldn't be worse since the Chiefs play the Chargers. But even if they lose I still think KC, behind Romeo's D, will outlast the overrated Chargers.

Dishonorable mention: Denver Broncos. Six weeks into his first year as head coach, Josh McDaniels was undefeated and pumping his fist like the big kid on the playground. Since then the former Pats assistant coach has been kicked around like the little kid on the playground. Now he's fired. Another Belichick protege who didn't seem to understand the key to his mentor's success. Win or lose you can never lose your focus. If you do, you'll lose your job.

Ted-dy! Ted-dy! Ted-dy!

If there was ever a question about who is the most popular Patriot of all time, it was answered during halftime of the Pats-Jets game. On a cold night like Monday, halftime ceremonies are usually just an afterthought to getting warm, using the bathroom, or getting another drink. Not on this night. Except for the red seats (I guess the lure of the clubhouse and the flatscreen TVs is just too strong), most fans stayed right where they were as Mr. Kraft brought out a blue #54 jersey and had the man of the hour -- of the night -- put it on.

Tedy Bruschi removed his coat in the frigid air and donned his game shirt. He let out a Bruschi roar and the adoring crowd echoed it right back at him. On a night when Tom Brady was working hard on leading a new Patriots team to a shot at a Super Bowl, Bruschi was leading the fans on a great trip down memory lane.

The halftime ceremony was just like Bruschi. Simple, heartfelt, fun, and memorable. A video montage opened the proceedings, chronicling the linebacker's 13-year career. After Kraft praised him for his dedication to the team and the community, Bruschi gave a shout-out to the best coach in the history of the game and to the fans who braved many cold nights like Monday to cheer him on.

Pointing to the championship banners, he did what Belichick's players always do... give credit to everyone else. He went through the names of the great players who helped put those banners in the south end zone corner of Gillette. Troy Brown, Joe Andruzzi, Ty Law, Lawyer, Rodney, Willie, Vrabel, Ted Johnson, Roman Phifer, Richard Seymour, even Larry Izzo. The mention of each players name brought a loud "Whoooo!" from the delighted crowd. (One player that he didn't mention? Asante Samuel. I guess Tedy is still pissed about that dropped pick in the Super Bowl too.)

There are going to be a lot of fun induction ceremonies at the Hall at Patriot Place in the upcoming years. If Bruschi's day is anything like his night on Monday, it will be the best one of all.

Bruschi captured the mood of everyone at Gillette when he said, as he stepped to the mike wearing his #54 jersey, "It still feels good." It sure does.

Duke of New York, A-Number 1

WEEK 13
Patriots 45, Jets 3 (12/6/'10): As my nephew Pete and I high-fived everyone around us, touchdown after touchdown, interception after interception, we kept saying (OK, shouting)... "Don't let up! Keep pouring it on them!"

Pour it on they did. The Patriots played a huge game against a very good opponent about as well as you possibly can. The final score, which it rarely does, perfectly reflected the game. The entire game. The Pats looked to remind the bigger than life Jets and their coach that they were still the Duke of New York and A-Number 1 of the AFC East. Message sent.

WEEK 13: No let-up.

There were so many key moments in the game, as there have been all season. Brady had four more touchdowns and looked championship sharp. BenJarvis, who is becoming money at the goal line, punched in two more scores. Welker, Gronk, Woodhead, Branch, Tate, Hernandez all came up big. The D had three picks and were on the ball all night, delivering hit after hit. Young players McCourty, Mayo, Chung, Cunningham, and Spikes played like veterans.

But the biggest moment came at the start of the fourth quarter after the Pats scored to go up 38-3. As the stadium fell into total delirium, Belichick called the entire team together on the sideline. Assistant coaches motioned to the extra point team to hustle over to hear the sideline chat (Matt Light, as is his wont, was last. He should have to buy dinner for the team in Chicago this weekend). The coach, instead of feeling satisfied or cocky with a five-touchdown lead like much of the 69,000 watching, implored his team to finish the game strong.

The Pats did finish strong, following the coach's speech by picking off Sanchez (again) and putting up another touchdown. The D held the Jets out of the endzone right through to the final gun. It was an impressive finish. Just as impressive as the way they started.

The Jets won the toss and decided to let Brady take the field first. It was a sound decision by Mt. Ryan, giving his team the ball to start the second half. The strategy proved useless after Brady and the Pats had stomped all over New York for two quarters. We watched from our seats as the Pats offense brought wave after wave of players. Branch, Welker out. Hernandez, Woodhead in. Welker, Hernandez, Gronk in. Woodhead, BenJarvis out. Branch, Tate in. Gronk, Woodhead out. Offensive set, after offensive set. Wave after wave.

As the Jets walked dazed, down 24-3, into their locker for the half, a familiar face walked out into the opposite endzone. Tedy Bruschi. The inspirational leader of the franchise's Super Bowl run amped up the already electric atmosphere during an excellent half-time tribute to him. When the teams came back for the second half, the crowd was chanting Ted-dy!, Ted-dy! and ready for some more football.

The Jets took the ball down to the Pats' 10-yard line to start the second half. A touchdown and the score would be 24-10 and the Jets would have some life against a D that has allowed a lot of late game points. Jets QB Sanchez fired one over the middle on second down and rookie Brandon Spikes was in the right spot and picked it off. The Jets' best chance was snuffed out by the youngest defense in the league. A defense that is gaining in confidence with each play. A defense that looks ready for the stretch run to the playoffs. The stretch run starts next week with yet another big game against the 9-3 Bears.

With just more than five minutes to play and the Pats up 45-3, the Jets were looking for some garbage points. In places like San Diego, Miami, Arizona, or Indianapolis the stadium would have been just about empty as fans left the blowout to either head home or fire up the post-game grill. About 80 percent of the much-maligned Gillette crowd remained in the frigid cold, cheering every play of the D and serenading the Jets with songs and chants. The stadium was shaking like the old concrete toilet bowl with the aluminum benches. Pats fans, like their team, are ready for the stretch run too.

As Brady said as he brushed back his hair at the post-game press conference: "It's good to be a New England Patriot on Tedy Bruschi night." It's good to be a New England Patriot fan, too.

The bigger they are

Monday night. The 9-2 Pats host the 9-2 Jets. Belichick. Brady. Mt. Ryan. Sanchez. Boston vs. New York. Hated rivals playing for the regular season gold ring ... the #1 playoff seed.

BILL & REX: Excellent adventure.

It's the biggest regular season game in the franchise's history. Since the franchise is only about a year or two older than me, I know what I'm talking about because I've seen a lot of those games. The Pats have had some huge battles through the years, but none like this. A victory and the Pats have an excellent chance to skip the first week of the playoffs (the one they got killed in last year) and settle in at Gillette for a playoff run. Lose, and even if they finish 13-3, they would likely find themselves on the road in round one at very unfriendly places like Kansas City or Jacksonville or Indy. The stakes have never been higher.

And the rivalry with the Jets has never been hotter. Jets' coach Mt. Ryan has brought a whole new swagger to the Jets and so far it is working. Although Gang Green has pulled a few wins out by the rather large seat of their coach's pants, they are unbeaten on the road entering December. In the NFL, that just doesn't happen that often. Lucky or not, the Jets are G-O-O-D, good, good, good. And they may be getting better. Suspended WR Santonio Holmes has had a few games to get in the flow so the Jets offense should start to click. The defense remains the league's best, playing an aggressive, loud style that reflects their coach.

On the other side is Bill Belichick. Always focused, always thinking ahead. Two traits that his team seems to be embracing more and more each week. The Pats have responded to their loss in Cleveland with three huge wins, two on the road. Tom Brady may be playing the best football of his career. Which is actually not surprising since he is now -- right now -- in the prime of his career. With distractions like Adalius Thomas and Randy Moss now gone, the Pats are locked in.

So the question is which team is ready for the next step? Is the Jets offense on the verge of putting it all together to carry the team to the top of the AFC? Or is the Pats young defense ready to build on their strong second half on Thanksgiving and start shutting teams down for an entire game? The answers will determine which team is sitting pretty come January.

But December comes first. The forecast is for temps in the low 20s and a biting wind. Time to find those extra layers. Lots of them. Winter football is here.

Satisfying taste

WEEK 12
I missed much of the first half of the Pats Thanksgiving Day game in Detroit as I was making my way to my sister's house in Portland. I'm thankful for that. The second half -- as well as the meal and drinks that followed -- was much more enjoyable.

WEEK 12: Heaping helping of points.

The Patriots are 9-2 after their raucous come-from-behind 45-24 victory. They are once again tied for the best record in the league -- with their division rival NY Jets. The two teams will meet on Monday night at Gillette in just more than a week. The latest in a string of biggest-game-of-the-year for the Pats will be the biggest one of all. A victory would be a giant step to a first-round bye. A loss and the Pats, even if they finish 13-3, would most likely have to go on the road to places like Indy or San Diego in the first round.

There was a lot to like about the Pats victory over the Lions. The thing I like the most is that the defense allowed just one touchdown in the second half. That's a big change from most of the season. Just because it was against the Lions doesn't diminish it. The young defense, on just three days rest, got stronger as the game went on. All led by Vince Wilfork who is having a Hall-of-Fame level season.

The highest scoring offense in the league had a monster second half. Brady -- after getting the stuffing knocked out of him in the first half -- was unstoppable, throwing four TD passes. He finished a ridiculous 21-for-27 for 341 yards. Woodhead and BenJarvis (scored two more TDs for a total of 9 on the season) averaged more than four yards a carry and made big plays on the ground when needed. Most importantly, the offense once again had no turnovers and made few mistakes.

The Patriots were 7-4 after 11 games last year. It's only a two game difference but this year's team is much more than two games better than the 2009 version. And that's without starters Ty Warren, Kevin Faulk, Leigh Bodden, Logan Mankins (for the first half of the year), and now Stephen Gostkowski. Different players have stepped up each week to give a boost to the core guys. That's a credit to those players and to Belichick and the coaching staff.

As is always the case (just ask the Jets), there is a lot of luck involved in 9-2. Even the 16-0 Patriots had a lot of things break their way. That's part of the equation in a championship run. But the 2010 Patriots are making a lot more plays when it counts. That's the difference this year. That's why they won the game against the Colts and that's why they won on Thanksgiving Day.

They will have to continue to do that down the stretch against some very tough teams in order to be in the best position possible come playoff time. The stretch starts at Gillette against the Jets a week from Monday.

Advantage: Patriots

WEEK 11
Patriots 31, Colts 28 (11/21/'10): Throughout the last decade, year after year, I always had one wish if the Pats made the playoffs: I wanted them to play the Colts. Crazy? Yes. But it's like Celts-Lakers, Bruins-Canadiens, and, of course, Sox-Yankees. Such great rivalries produce great games. Sure, the chance of the team you root for losing is greater because the other team is so tough to beat, but it's just too fun not to wish for. Win or lose during the regular season, I've always left a Pats-Colts game hoping for a January rematch. Not this time.

The Patriots won another classic chapter in the rivalry, but the fourth quarter was a reminder why you don't want to play Peyton Manning in a win-or-go-home playoff game at this point in his career. His team is never out of it as long as he can get a few seconds of protection to make a play. As Belichick says, "60 minutes!" It took all 60 to win this one.

WEEK 11: Familiar face.

Billy and Bergs took that 60 minutes approach to heart. They were the first to arrive at the Enchanted Forest lot, well before 11 a.m. So early, in fact, that the gate wasn't open. The man with the key finally arrived and Billy and Bergs set up camp and waited for us. "I asked the guy if we could get a discount because we were first in the lot," Billy joked when Mark and I arrived a few minutes later. "He didn't go for it." Mark's brother Toph joined us as part of his 50th birthday weekend. The party the night before was the perfect warmup for a chilly but sunny day of tailgating. Shep and two of his sons arrived a little later and we spent the day talking about the Colts and last  week's big win over the Steelers; and eating lamb two ways (one marinated in lemon sauce, another in sour cream), grilled King Crab legs, and linguica. We decided that -- with three great home games yet to come -- this is officially the best season of tailgating we've ever had. Of course the results of the games have been a big part of that. None more so than yesterday.

The game felt a lot like the ones in the early part of the last decade, especially in regards to the interceptions thrown by Manning. It's been a while since I've gotten to see him shrug his shoulders and make the Manning face on the giant screen at Gillette. I had missed that. It's even better in HD.

The first of his three interceptions came on the Colts' opening drive about five minutes into the game with Indy just over midfield and facing a 3rd-and-7. Manning floated one right into Meriweather's hands and he took it back 39 yards to the Colts 30. Replays showed the pass was off because Manning was under pressure, a theme for the day even though the D never got the sack. The interception, followed by Welker slugging in a 22-yard TD pass through two Colts defenders, got the already wired crowd completely fired up. New England fans can still make some noise when it really counts.

The Pats D held the Colts and then Brady led the offense on a 15-play, 82-yard drive that chewed up nearly eight minutes of clock. It was a thing of beauty. My hand was a little soar from high-fiving Mark, Shep, Toph, and everyone else within reach play after play. Should have kept my gloves on. Brady capped the drive with an 8-yard pass to Aaron Hernandez on third down and the Pats took a 14-0 lead and sent the stadium into party mode.

As has often been the case in this rivalry, just when one team looks like it is in charge the other team (this time the Colts) answers back. Manning and Brady traded touchdown drives the rest of the half (ending with Manning hitting Reggie Wayne with just eight seconds left) and the Patriots walked off the field with a 21-14 lead. It was a great first half. But not as great as the second half.

The Pats seemingly put the game away with an electric 36-yard touchdown run by Woodhead late in the third quarter, a Devin McCourty pick, and a Shayne Graham field goal. The Pats held a comfortable 31-14 lead with just more than 10 minutes to go in the game. But with Manning, nothing is comfortable. The Colts went no huddle and Manning quickly put up two touchdowns as the crowd screamed "get him!" again and again. The Pats D never did get him. But they did get a break.

The Colts got the ball with just more than two minutes to play and Manning began what looked sure to be at the very least a game-tying field goal drive. Manning hit Wayne for 15 yards down to the Pats 24 and old friend Adam Vinatieri began warming up his aging but still clutch right leg. The thought of #4 making the tying kick and then possibly the winning kick in OT sure put a damper on my Don Julio glow. Manning was looking as unstoppable as ever. Then he made his third mistake of the game, launching a pass towards the end zone to try and go for the win. Just before he released the ball he leaned out of the way of the rush and the ball came up short. James Sanders (one of Mark's favorite players) leaped into the air and made a great catch, cradling the ball -- and the game -- in his arms as he fell to the ground at the 6-yard line. The Gillette crowed celebrated a great finish to another great Pats-Colts game.

In consecutive weeks the Patriots have gone into Pittsburgh and put a solid beating on the Steelers and then come home and held off a serious challenge by the Colts. Last year's team could not have pulled that off. The victories give the Pats a big advantage against both teams when it comes playoff seeding time. Now the Pats have to turn around and play their third game in 12 days with the traditional early Thanksgiving Day game in Detriot. The holiday season has begun and once again -- really? again? -- the Patriots are one of the best teams in the league. A win over the Colts always proves that.

Belichick was miked before, during, and after the Colts game. Here's the link to the NFL Films video. It's an early gift to Pats' fans.

Belichick Miked Up Against The Colts.

Tangled up in blue

TALES FROM THE TAILGATE
Patriots 20, Colts 3 (1/16/'05): The greatest rivalry of the past 10 years -- maybe in the history of the NFL -- is about to have another chapter written. If it's anything like last year's chapter, well, there'll be a lot to talk about during the postgame tailgate Sunday night.

DILLON: Killin' field.

Peyton Manning and the Colts ride into town for another clash. Once again both teams are at the top of their divisions. Once again there is a lot at stake.

There have been so many great games between the two teams that it's hard to pick a favorite. Each has scored huge wins against the other. That's what makes it such an entertaining rivalry. The Colts have gotten the better of the Pats lately, but back in the winter of '04/'05 it was the Patriots who were dominant.

I've been lucky to see a lot of great games during the past 20 years. Well, mostly the last 10. Some of the best have been against the team in white and blue with the horseshoe on their helmet. (One of the all-time great sports uniforms, by the way). The best of those games came on a cold, snowy January afternoon. The Patriots were on the verge of becoming a dynasty and they took a big step towards that by playing -- and winning -- what turned out to be a classic old-school NFL playoff game.

The Colts came into Gillette in the playoffs for the second straight year. The Pats had knocked Indy out in the AFC title game 24-14 the previous January, torturing Manning with four interceptions in the snow. It was such a beating that the NFL decided to change the rules so that wide receivers (namely Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne) would have more freedom to roam untouched. More accurately, Colts GM Bill Polian decided to change the rules and the league went along with him. The Colts, thanks to those rules, had scored 49 points against Denver in the first round the week before with Manning passing for more than 450 yards. The story line coming into the rematch was how can the Patriots defense stop the unstoppable? Bill Belichick and his veteran players had the answer.

It was one of the more memorable pregame tailgates we've ever had -- despite the snow and 15 degree wind chill. The parking lot was a giant holiday party. Tents were up to protect from the elements but most people huddled outside talking about our favorite subject -- Pats vs. Colts. We had a large fire pit to keep warm, as well as a variety of cocktails to do the same. Since there were about a dozen of us at the tailgate, the pregame meal included everything from shrimp and sausage to lamb and steaks that Shep had marinated for days. My nephews Pete and Nate were planning on meeting up with us. They were bringing their cousin who lived in ... Indiana.

Nate called my cellphone to find out where we were in the lot. "We'll be there in a few minutes," he said. Then he paused, laughed a little, and asked "My cousin Andrew has got his Colts gear on. Is that gonna be a problem?"

"Not at all," I said. "As long as he's not an annoying jerk."

"No. He's cool,'' Nate answered.

I poured myself another drink and scanned the lot for Nate and Pete. I waved as I saw them coming up the aisle. Both were laughing. As I looked behind them I saw why. There was a guy walking a few steps back adorned in a Manning #18 jersey and a big blue horse's head made out of foam -- like the "We're #1" fingers. It was Andrew. Nate wasn't kidding. He sure had his Colts gear on. Everyone in Pats gear gave him a warm New England welcome as he walked by grill after grill.

Everyone watched as he walked up to our tailgate like a room full of guys turn to look as an attractive woman walks into a bar. Pete and Nate said hi to everyone and then introduced Andrew. We all started in on the "Your Colts are gonna get killed" talk. Good natured of course. Except for Billy (see: The Snow Bowl). He walked up to Andrew and greeted him in the way that only Billy can.

"Hey kid," he said. "If the Colts win tonight I'm going to set that foam horse on fire. Even if it's still on your head." Andrew kept that foam head on through the whole tailgate. The kid had guts.

The game -- expected by many to be a shootout or a Colts blowout -- was one that called for guts too. The unstoppable offense got the opening kickoff and went a quick three-and-out. That was the pattern for the game. Manning would throw, and throw, and throw (42 times, in fact), but the Pats D always had an answer. Bruschi. Harrison. Vrabel. Seymour. Johnson. Samuel. McGinest. Troy Brown. Troy Brown? Yup. Troy Brown.

Brown is known for catching the most passes in team history and for his skills as a kick returner, but on this bitter cold day he also played defensive back. As old school as you can get. The Patriots, with a wide receiver at D back, stopped the Indy offense time and time again. Manning would complete a pass only to watch his receiver get smashed and the ball roll on the icy turf. Late in the first quarter the Colts had reached midfield and faced a 3rd-and-9. Manning had Brandon Stokley open across the middle for what would have been a first down. Brown cut in front of Stokley and knocked the ball out of the way. Colts punt. Each possession, each play had the crowd urging the defense on. Each time the defense responded. Especially Bruschi.

Late in the first half, with the Pats leading 6-0, Manning hit running back Dominic Rhodes at the Pats 40-yard line. Bruschi arrived at the same time as the ball and as he tackled Rhodes he ripped the ball out of his hands. Indy turnover. Bruschi came to the sideline and raised the ball to the crowd. The place went nuts.The defense held the unstoppable offense to just three points for the entire game. It was the best performance by any Patriots defense and one of the best by any defense in the playoffs -- ever.

It was matched on offense by an equally impressive running game. The Pats added veteran Corey Dillon during the offseason and he was a key part in the ground attack improving from 27th in the league in '03 to 7th in '04. The combination of Clock Killin' Corey Dillon (1,600 yards that season) and the Pats veteran defense was the real unstoppable force that season. The Patriots dominated the time of possession and dominated their rivals from start to finish.

Rivalries are the essence of sports. The challenge of trying to defeat a great opponent. It makes for great entertainment and theater. As a Pats fan, I love the Colts. How can you hate them? They are a great team and Manning is one of the all-time greats. That comeback in the '06 AFC title game earned them much  deserved respect. Indy is always tough to beat. That's what makes it so much fun when the Pats beat them.

On that January day in '05, the fervent 69,000 rose to their feet on the Colts' first offensive play of the game and never sat down. Whether on offense or defense, first down or third, everyone stood and roared. Gillette was a great homefield advantage that day. Hopefully it will be again this Sunday. I'm ready to stand for three hours.

Nothing regular about it

WEEK 10
Just before driving to Pawtucket to meet Bergs at the East Ave. Cafe (unrivaled beer selection) to see if the Pats could go into Pittsburgh and pull out a huge victory, I texted my nephew Pete: "We need Brady at his best tonight... and for the rest of the season."

WEEK 10: Motivated.

Brady at his best it was. His final numbers: 30 for 43, 350 yards passing, 3 TDs, 1 rushing TD, no picks, 27 barked-out personal challenges to the offense to play harder and smarter.

The Pats are almost impossible to beat when Brady plays like that. He was joined by Gronkowski  (3 TD catches), Chung, Big Vince, BenJarvis, McCourty, Crumpler, and many others on the list of players who were motivated by last week's dreadful loss to the Browns. Maybe the most important performance, as it has been in all the games this year, was that of the offensive line. With Stephen Neal out, the line protected Brady (only hit three times) and opened up lanes for the rushing game. Logan Mankins's return couldn't have come at a better time. The Pats broke 100 yards on the ground against a Steelers D that was giving up an average of about 50. The offensive line is the backbone of the 2010 Pats. It's a solid, veteran backbone to build on. But it all revolves around #12. He looks up to the challenge.

Bergs and I sat at the bar talking to Mark on the phone as the clocked ticked down. A stat flashed on the screen that the Pats are 23-2 in games after losses since 2002 under Belichick. There have been some great regular season victories during that time.

"Where do you rank this one?" Mark asked. Bergs and I agreed that it was top 10 among regular season wins during Belichick's 10 years. Not in simple entertainment value. That list would include the snowball game against Miami and the 31-0 revenge game against the Bills, to name two. This is a list of statement games. Regular season victories that showed just how good the team could be that year -- and beyond.

10. Brady's first start, 2001: Everyone remembers the week before this game, when Bledsoe took a shot to the chest and Brady came in to start what nobody knew at the time was a Hall of Fame career. The Pats lost that game to the Jets, but a week later Brady was making his first start against the Colts in Foxboro Stadium. Brady and the Pats 44, Manning and the Colts 13. Brady didn't throw any TDs and only put up 168 yards passing, but he didn't make any big mistakes and came up with clutch plays on third down when needed. That was the formula for victory the rest of the way. Brady the sixth-round pick outplayed Manning the golden boy. It wouldn't be the last time.

9. Foxboro finale, 2001: Later in that magical year, the Pats played their final regular season game at the old stadium against division rival Miami. Brady was now the story of the NFL, having led the team to a 9-5 record. The Pats came into the last game at their home since the '70s with a chance to clinch the division for the first time in several years. The Patriots, behind a defense that would go on to win the Super Bowl, built a 20-3 lead against the Dolphins and won decisively 20-10. The players and coaches walked around the edge of the field high-fiving fans. They would be doing it again in the Snow Bowl about a month later.

8. Roaring back, 2002: The Pats didn't make the playoffs as defending champs in 2002. But you wouldn't have known that by the way the crowd celebrated this amazing come-from-behind win against Miami in the season finale at the new Gillette Stadium. The Pats needed to win to get to 9-7 and then hope the Jets would lose later that day (they didn't). But Miami, led by Dave Wannstedt (or Wannstoop as my family nicknamed him), was in a better position. All they needed to do was beat the Pats to clinch the division. And they rolled out to a 21-7 lead behind Ricky Williams's 185 yards rushing. The Pats D could not stop him. But, for some inexplicable reason, Wannstoop stopped handing him the ball and instead had Jay Fielder start throwing passes. The Pats D could stop Fielder. The Pats scored 11 points in the last few minutes of the game and then won it in overtime. It erased the taste of a disappointing season and set the tone for the next two years.

7. Steeler smack down, 2010: Time will tell if last night's convincing win in Pittsburgh will be the start of a championship run. There are a lot of other hurdles ahead. But it was very reminiscent of many of the games on this list. Brady made big play after big play. The defense set the tone early and held the Steelers to just 10 points through three quarters. And all that coming off maybe the worst regular season defeat since winning the title in 2001. Brady's fiery sideline statement carried on to the field in the second half. Any game where Brady throws three touchdowns and runs in for another is a statement.

6. New streak starts, 2004: This one came after the Steelers put a beating on the Pats, ending their then NFL record winning streak at 21. The Steelers stomped on New England 34-20 and it was worse than that. Ty Law was carried off the field. The Pats limped to St. Louis to play the Mike Martz coached Rams. There were lots of critics salivating at the thoughts of a Pats collapse. In one of Belichick and his staff's best coaching jobs of those years, the Pats rolled to a 40-22 road win that included a trick Vinatieri to Troy Brown TD pass that Martz is still trying to figure out. The Pats would lose only one more game on their way to title No. 3.

5. Spygate, 2007: One of the team's best home games. The Pats spent the week having the entire world -- Congress included -- climb up their zoom lens. The Jets had ratted on Belichick about the guy with the video camera and suddenly the Pats were the nation's new villains. Nice going, Bill. The team had to somehow get ready to play San Diego, one of their biggest rivals. The Chargers were looking to add insult to the Pats' injured reputation. The only pain being handed out that night was by the Pats. They demolished San Diego 38-14 in an emotion-filled game that had the stadium rocking.

4. OT in South Beach, 2003: The Patriots were 4-2 and still trying to recapture their Super Bowl mojo. Miami was 4-1 and mulling playoff dreams of their own. It was a classic AFC East war in the October Miami heat in a place where the Pats rarely won. Dolphin kicker Olindo Mare had two chances to win the game -- one at the end of regulation that was blocked and one in OT that he missed because he was kicking off the baseball infield dirt. Brady ended it with an 82-yard bomb -- a thing of beauty -- after scrambling to avoid the rush. The ball landed in Troy Brown's arms and he high-stepped his way into the end zone. The Pats wouldn't lose again that year.

3. Perfection, 2007: A perfect final game to the perfect season. The Pats arrived at Giants Stadium just one win shy of the first 16-0 season ever. It was a great game. The Giants, who had already clinched a playoff spot, could have rested guys and not challenged the Pats. But that's not Tom Coughlin's way. The Giants played the game as if it was the Super Bowl, which probably had a lot to do with the outcome when the two teams actually met in the Super Bowl a few weeks later. Brady's record-breaking bomb to Moss capped a great win and an amazing season.

2. Mile High win, 2003: Every team has its house of horrors where they just can't win. Denver was that place for the Patriots. Two weeks after their overtime win in Miami, the 6-2 Pats headed to Mile High for what was expected to be their almost-annual dose of heartbreak. New England has lost many road games over the years, but some of the most painful took place in the shadow of the Rockies. But 2003 was certainly a year when things were different. Denver lead 24-23 with just a few minutes left in the game and the Pats were backed up inside their own 10. A punt there would have given the Broncos the ball at midfield or better and a chance to put the game away. So Belichick told the team to take a safety and give Denver two more points. That allowed them a free kick from a better spot on the field. The Broncos muffed the kick, got pinned inside their 25, and had to punt it back to the Pats. Brady then led the offense on one of his greatest drives, ending with a clutch throw to David Givens in the front corner of the end zone. Belichick gave Charlie Weiss a huge hug. You know it's a big win when that happens.

1. Goal line stand, 2003: Just say goal line stand and every Patriots fan will know what you are talking about. The 9-2 Pats went into 9-2 Indy two weeks after the Denver win (it was that kind of season) and rolled out to a 31-10 lead early into the second half. The team was looking unbeatable. Everything was clicking. Then Peyton Manning and the Colts -- as often happens in the greatest rivalry in football -- responded and made a furious rally to cut the score to 38-34. The Colts then made one last drive down the field in front of their delirious fans -- setting up a 1st-and-goal at the 2-yard line with less than a minute to play. The Pats stopped two runs and a Manning fade pass to force a fourth down winner-take-all play. Willie McGinest, who had been kneeling in pain a few plays before, bolted towards Edgerin James and stopped the Colt running back dead in his tracks. Willie ran off the field with right arm raised and the whole team followed him from there to back-to-back Super Bowls.

The Pats have home games left against the 6-3 Colts, the 7-2 Jets, the 6-3 Packers, and the 5-4 Dolphins to close out the 2010 regular season on January 2. A dominating win in any of those games would make it a contender for this list. But it will be hard for any of them to top my No. 1. (This is the complete game if you have 45 mins to kill. If not, head to the end for the greatest goal line stand in Pats history).

Whooah, we're half way there...

The Pats and the NFL have hit the half-way mark of the season with every team having played at least eight games. Who's the best team in the league right now? That's easy, it's... Hold on, it just changed. It's now... Wait, not them anymore. Now it's... never mind.

So forget who's No. 1. Who are the top 10? There are 15 (out of 32) teams with either five or six wins and another seven with four. Twenty-two out of 32 are at least  .500. So how to rank them? You could write down all the names on pieces of paper and toss them in the air. That's one system. I decided to come up with another one. It's based simply on which teams the contenders have beaten and where (home or road). A road win against a good team is the most difficult thing to achieve. A home win against a bad team the easiest. Road wins in the NFL are bigger than home wins. Margin of victories don't matter. A win is a win. A loss is a loss. That's the basis for my formula:

• 1 PT for every home win against a team with a losing record.*
• 2 PTS for every home win against a team with a .500 or better record.
• 3 PTS for every road win against a team with a losing record.
• 4 PTS for every road win against a team with a .500 or better record.
• 0 PTS for any road losses or a home loss to a team with a .500 or better record.
• -1 PT for every home loss to a team with a losing record, because that's inexcusable.

*Opponents' current record used, not what it was when teams played.

If the Pats had beaten Cleveland I would have gladly put them at the top just for the fun of seeing them there because it wouldn't have lasted long. Then I would have thrown the names of all the six and five win teams in the air to fill out the next nine. But now I'm curious to see how my formula works. My top 10 teams at the mid-point of the season (with points under my formula listed after record):

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2, 18 pts): The Steelers are allowing an average of 58 yards rushing. 58. Some teams give that up on one carry. However, like every other team on this list, a strength is offset by a weakness. They are allowing almost 250 yards passing a game. You can make the big play against Pittsburgh. Offensively they are average right now, as they showed two weeks ago against New Orleans. But they are a veteran team that can go on quite a run if they stay healthy.

2. New York Jets (6-2, 16 pts): Rex Ryan and his Jets are 4-0 on the road. That alone makes them the top team in the league in my book, but my formula puts them second. The Jets are allowing 16 points per game and scoring 22. Second-year QB Sanchez has played solid football and the running game is averaging almost 150 yards thanks mostly to LT's revival. The defense is fourth against the rush, but only 17th against the pass. That will get better. As will the whole team. Their biggest question is will their attitude lead to their downfall.

3. New York Giants (6-2, 14 pts): I thought the G-Men were done under Tom Coughlin. Glad to see they are not. The one thing that took the slightest bit of sting out of the '07 Super Bowl was seeing Coughlin win a title. If you like football you have to like him. He's a heck of an old-school coach. The Giants jumped out of the gate at 6-0 last year but won only three games the rest of the season, ending in disarray. Which is how they opened this year, stumbling to 1-2 three weeks in. Five straight wins and Coughlin and the men in blue are looking, suddenly, like the NFC's best.

4. New England Patriots (6-2, 14 pts): One win away from being ranked at the top. Also one loss away from not being in the top 10 at all. If I wasn't using my formula I'd have the Pats lower. Too many problems. No true running back. A young defense that has had its moments but mostly gives up yards in big chunks. Lots of injuries (losing Gostkowski for the season is a big loss). A passing attack that thrives on the three-and-out. That said, they are 6-2 and have played some very good football. And they have Brady and a pretty good coach.

5. Tennessee Titans (5-4, 14 pts): If it wasn't for my formula I'd have the Titans much lower too. After looking at who they have beaten (Oak, at Giants, at Jags, Philly) and the fact that they are the top scoring offense in the league (averaging 28 pts) and in the top 10 in defense, I have a whole new appreciation for what Jeff Fisher is doing this season. They have the two-headed QB in Vince Young/Kerry Collins and now they have Randy Moss. But they play in the league's toughest division by far.

6. Philadelphia Eagles (5-3, 14 pts): The Eagles under Andy Reid just won't die. They trade Donovan McNabb and still have the fourth best offense in the league. Regardless of whether it's Kolb or Vick running it. Although I think it's much better with Vick. Add to that weapons LeSean and DeSean and the offense is still operating in high gear. And the defense is an opportunistic one led by old friend Asante Samuel and his five picks.

7. Baltimore Ravens (6-2, 13 pts): If not using my formula I'd have the Ravens in the top 3. Who's idea was this, anyway? Baltimore still looks like the most balanced team in the league. Ray Rice. Ray Lewis. Joe Flacco. Anquan Boldin. Ed Reed. Terrell Suggs. That's a core of talented players that few teams can match. They have a tough schedule the rest of the way but they should be battling for one of the byes at the end.

8. Indianapolis Colts (5-3, 13 pts): When the Colts are the eighth best team in the NFL... well, you have a very entertaining league. Manning (the ninth best player in the history of the game, according to the NFL Network) has watched receiver after receiver get carted off the field. And yet he keeps making plays. He really is one of the top 10 players ever. But so is Brady. The problem is the Colts have been hit by injuries equally as hard in the running game, but Manning can't rush the ball too.

9. New Orleans Saints (6-3, 13 pts): The reigning champs may be having some issues, but they are still on track to make the playoffs. If they do (and they will) then all they need to hope for is to be healthy come January and then they can make a serious defense of their rings. They still have Brees and Payton. And unlike last year, their defense is actually pretty good. They will be in the Super Bowl.

10a. Green Bay Packers (6-3, 12 pts): The remaining six-win teams tie for the final spot. I'll put the Pack first because of their D. Clay Matthews. AJ Hawk. Charles Woodson. Tramon Williams. The Pack's defense is nasty. Oh, and the Aaron Rodgers' led offense is pretty good too. All Green Bay needs to do is hold off the Bears. They can do that.

10b. Atlanta Falcons (6-2, 12 pts): Everyone's current NFC pick will move up if they can beat the Ravens at home tonight. My formula puts them in tenth. I would have had them in the top 5. It's that kind of year. Their run defense is solid but their passing defense is not. Their offense is as balanced as you can get. They are clearly one of the strongest NFC contenders. Their lack of big-game experience is their biggest question.

Dishonorable mention: The Wade Phillips era is over in Dallas. It was sure fun while it lasted. Jerry Jones won't get the pleasure of watching his Cowboys play in the Super Bowl in his stadiumopolis. Just as long as they keep showing him in his luxury box during each loss. Hopefully his massive ego will prevent him from hiring Bill Cowher next season. Cowher would be dangerous with that talent.

Brown out

WEEK 9
I thought the Pats would be 6-2 at the halfway point of the season. That was my ceiling.

6-2 it is. That is a good first half regardless of what happened in Cleveland.  In a year when any team can beat any other team, and not just in the old "any given Sunday" cliched way but in a real way, the fact that the Pats are 6-2 is a sign that the team has done a lot more right than wrong so far.

Except for today. That was a day of wrong. The two-win Browns 34, the six-win Pats 14. Can it be chalked up to just one of those games? Or an exploiting of some of the team's weaknesses? The next two weeks will answer that.

WEEK 9: Outsmarted.

The Browns jumped on the Pats for 10 points in the opening four minutes, thanks to a quick field goal drive and then a botched kickoff by Sammy Morris that led to an even quicker Patrick Hillis touchdown. The two teams traded a few punts before Brady led the offense on an 11-play touchdown drive that ended with Hernandez catching a pass that tipped off fellow rookie tight end Gronkowski. The drive began a lot less enjoyably. Brady dropped back and got sacked for a 9-yard loss to set up a 2nd-and-19 from the New England 12. The Pats were starting to look like they did against the Ravens in the playoffs last year.

Then they made a smart decision. They went no huddle early in the second quarter. Brady hit Gronkowski for a 22-yard completion and the offense no-huddled in for a huge TD to cut the score to 10-7. The Pats were back on their feet and back in the game. The winner would be decided by which team could make more plays the rest of the way. The final score will tell you which team that was.

I could go into how the Browns made a huge third down play inside the Pats 20 to keep the next drive alive and then scored on a trick play where student (Mangini) got the best of teacher (Belichick). Or how Gronkowski had the ball ripped from his hands on a first-down play at the Browns' 3-yard line with 22 seconds left in the half that killed an impressive -- and crucial -- two-minute drive. Or how the Pats started the second half with two weak drives while the Browns were putting up 10 more points to push the score 27-7 by the end of the third quarter. Or how rookie QB Colt McCoy rode a great running game to victory. I could go into all of that. But why bother? The spouting heads on radio and TV will be doing that all week. I say plug in your iPod.

Fact is the Browns outcoached, outplayed, and outsmarted the Patriots for much of the game. They deserved to win. Once again the Pats defense allowed more than 400 yards in offense. That just can't continue. That's not bend but don't break. That's bend and about to snap. The offense continues to run hot and cold. Most importantly, the Pats lost the turnover battle and that almost always costs you on the road. There's a lot for Belichick to work on to get ready for the two biggest back-to-back games of the year.

So the Patriots are at 6-2. Next up: At Pittsburgh, which could be 6-2 if they win on the road in Cincy tomorrow night. In a season where there are no sure things, the Pats going into the land of the towels and winning big would not surprise. In fact, I feel good about that happening.

Shut your trap

It'll be three more Sundays before I get to go back to Gillette. I would say I need the break after the past few weeks, but I really don't. I'm ready for the next home game. That will be an evening affair against Manning and the Colts, the first in what will be four huge home games in the second half of the season. After the renewal of the greatest rivalry in sports is done, the Pats will have another huge home game two weeks after that. Monday night against the Jets. Ya, that will be fun. It's been a great season of tailgating and it promises to get even better.

BELICHICK & MANGINI: Et tu, Eric?

But first the Patriots look for their third road win of the season. They only won two all of last year. They get two shots at it in the next two weeks. The second one will be at Pittsburgh -- a huge road game. But first the Pats play the proverbial trap game. In Cleveland. A fitting setting.

After playing against Miami, Baltimore, San Diego, and Minnesota, a game against the 2-5 Browns might not get the juices flowing. But when you are 6-1 there really are no trap games. Every win -- no matter the opponent -- is a step closer to a division title, the playoffs, and the all important first-round bye. Add to that the fact that it's against Eric "The Rat" Mangini and there is no way that Belichick won't have his team up for this one. No way.

The Belichick-Mangini feud is at the heart of the dreaded Spygate. It was Mangini -- who left the Pats to coach the Jets (it's always the Jets) -- who ratted on his former boss about his little video side-business. It didn't seem to matter to Mangini that just the year before he was a clerk manning the counter at the Pats Video Mania store. You would think his conscious would have prevented him from pointing the finger. Instead he gave his mentor the finger -- and a feud was born.

Mangini had a great first season with New York, taking a 4-12 team to 10-6 and a playoff berth. The Jets then met the Pats in the first-round of the playoffs at Gillette (one of my favorite playoff games) and Belichick's team shredded them 37-16. Revenge was sweet. Mangini lasted two more years with the Jets, the last one ending with Brett Favre throwing pick after pick to turn an 8-3 start into a 9-7 collapse. Mangini was gone.

Surprisingly -- no, shockingly -- the Browns hired him about a week later. And Mangenius proceeded to take down all the photos of the great Cleveland Brown players that adorned the walls of the team's facility. And there were a lot of great players from some great team's. Thumbing your nose at a franchise's history (one scarred by the team leaving town for Baltimore) is an interesting way to say hello. The Browns stumbled to 5-11 in Mangini's first year and it was actually uglier than the record indicates.

The team started this year by luring Mike Holmgren in as GM to set the organization back on its feet. I was sure the first thing he would do is fire the Rat. As is often the case, I was wrong. After a face-to-face meeting Holmgren decided to stick with Mangini. I can't imagine it was his personality that won him over.

That seems to me to be Mangini's biggest problem so far as head coach. He learned a lot of things from Belichick, but, at least to this point, it looks like he learned all the wrong things. Mangini acts as if Belichick's dour, secretive style is the key to his success. It's not of course. It's his coaching. Something Mangini is actually pretty good at.

The Browns -- although 2-5 -- have shown signs of improvement this year. They knocked off the Saints down in New Orleans and have been competitive in several of their losses. But they are still 2-5. Are they dangerous? Every team in the NFL is this year. Winless Buffalo included.

The Browns, with a strong running game and playmaking defense, are capable of winning. But if the Pats are upset on Sunday it won't be because they weren't up for the game. Belichick won't let his team fall into that trap.