Monday, April 26, 2010

New kids on the block

Day three of the NFL Draft (rounds 4-7) saw the Patriots add seven more players to their roster of rookies. Another tight end (now Belichick is just messing with me), two offensive lineman, two defensive lineman, a quarterback, and a punter. It's that last one that I'm kind of excited about. Zoltan Mesko. 6'-4'' punter from Michigan via Romania. That's right, the Patriots new punter is from Romania. Here, in its entirety, is the NFL.com scouting report:

"Mesko is a four-year starter that had his best season punting the football in 2009. He averaged 44.5 yards in 52 attempts with 0 blocked. Mesko is excellent at dropping the ball inside the twenty yard line to pin opponents deep into their own territory. Mesko has good size and athleticism for the position with above average leg strength. Mesko has been effective in tough weather conditions and shows poise under pressure. He has been solid with his hang time and distance but isn’t an elite punter in this years draft. Mesko is a solid prospect that will likely get his named called late in the draft."

OK, I'm not sure why, after describing the guy as a punting god, you would then say he isn't an elite punter in this years draft, but whatever. If Zoltan -- and let's just agree we are all calling him Zoltan and not Mesko -- can be to punting what Gostkowski has been to kick-offs and field goals then the Patriots will be set in the kicking game for many years to come. Don't underestimate the importance of that. The Pats lost several close games last year (Denver, Indy, Miami) that a well placed punt might have made a difference in. Oh, and he was a captain for the Wolverines, The first special teams player in school history to be so honored. Look at him. He looks more like a linebacker. Maybe he can catch passes like Vrabel. I've got high hopes for Zoltan.

The other players taken in day three provide depth where it is always needed -- on the offensive and defensive lines. Ted Larsen, Tom Welch, Brandon Deaderick, and Kade Weston are likely deep bench or practice squad guys. Belichick, although he has stumbled several times in the early rounds of the draft, has always seemed to find a lineman late in the draft who surprises so we may see one of these names making an impact someday. The team also grabbed Oklahoma St. quarterback Zach Robinson with one of its compensatory picks. This is the guy who was making the passes to Dez Bryant so he must have been doing something right. Is he the young QB who will eventually replace Brady? Seems fitting that a seventh-rounder would one day replace the greatest sixth-rounder ever chosen. But that's getting a little ahead of things.

The Patriots added twelve young players to their roster. Some of them could -- should -- have an immediate impact in 2010. That's what makes the NFL draft so much fun. It's like going on a shopping spree. I'll take one of those, one of those ... each selection an opportunity to find the next Tedy Bruschi, Asante Samuel, or Tom Brady. Even the next Ben Coates.

Saturday, April 24, 2010

No you didn't!

I had a nightmare last night that the Patriots used their first pick in the second round to take yet another tight end. Actually, in my dream, the Pats traded up in order to draft a tight end. The Pats almost never trade up. Whew. I'm glad it was only a dream.

OK, it wasn't a dream. Belichick did it again. He drafted a tight end with the 10th pick of the second round. So many good players available who play all the other positions. And he drafted another tight end. A guy named Rob Gronkowski from the University of Arizona. I felt like Harrison Ford in the scene from "Indiana Jones" when he looks down to the floor of the newly-unearthed temple and sees it covered by the thing he hates most -- snakes. He rolls over and says with a mix of exasperation and depression ... "Snakes. Why did it have to be snakes."

A tight end. Why did it have to be a tight end.

Belichick and his never-ending quest for the giant guy who can block, catch, run, and solve the world's financial crisis. He just never gives up. Will Gronkowski be another Graham or Watson? A high draft pick who doesn't quite live up to expectations that come along with being chosen that high. We'll see. The scouting reports on him are glowing.

"The big, athletic tight end has exceptional tools, and is one of the few complete players at the position available in the draft," says NFL.com. OK. That sounds promising. Many other reviews had him as a player capable of making an impact as a starter right away. Maybe I've been too rash about this whole tight end thing. The next line from NFL.com... "He has been a standout tight end..." (good, good) ..."when he has been healthy enough to stay on the field. Unfortunately he has missed a total of 16 games over the past two years due to injuries or illness." Uh oh. And this from Patriots.com... "The only possible negative with the pick is his history of back problems. He missed all of 2009 after undergoing microdisectomy surgery of his lower back." Microdisectomy surgery? Yes, I can see that being a possible negative. Word is Gronkowski is completely healed. We'll see. These things never seem to work out.

Tight end pick aside, the Patriots had what appears to be a great second day of the draft. They followed the Gronkowski pick with back-to-back linebacker selections. One inside. One outside. That improved my mood greatly. Jermain Cunningham of Florida is a defensive end but could very well shift to outside linebacker. Reports say the 6'-3'' 260-pounder is quick at the snap and can get into the backfield. A few picks later the Pats made their third choice of the second round and went with Cunningham's Gator teammate, inside linebacker Brandon Spikes. He's described as an old-school middle linebacker. After watching some video of him bringing guys down I would say that's a good description. He also missed a game last year. But it wasn't because of a bad back. It was because of "an on the field incident." I can't wait to see this guy line up in the middle next to Mayo.

The Pats had one pick in the third round, acquired in the first day dealing, and added wide receiver Taylor Price from Ohio. The team passed on guys like Dez Bryant, Golden Tate, and Damian Williams -- players I thought could have been key contributors and made a great tandem with Randy Moss in the way Moss did when he was a young player with Chris Carter in Minnesota. Price certainly has good size at 6'-0'' and reports say he has great hands and all the physical skills to make it. Here's hoping Randy takes him under his wing and teaches him all he needs to know. While he's at it he can teach that tight end a few things too.




Friday, April 23, 2010

Duck, duck, draft

Being a New England Patriots fan watching the NFL Draft is like being a four-year-old with an older brother who has one of your toys and is holding it just out of your reach. Just when you think he is going to give it to you... he quickly pulls it away. Ha ha!

The Pats are on the clock with the 22nd pick in the draft... Not so fast... They traded back two spots. Now they have the 24th pick in the draft. Maybe they'll pick ... Wait. They've traded down again and now have the 27th pick. Come on! Give me that toy! Er, I mean draft pick! Mom!

So the Pats traded with the Broncos, then the Cowboys, moving down five spots but acquiring Dallas' third-round pick in the end. That's what Belichick does. He collects picks like I used to collect Wacky Packs. I'm in favor of his approach. The more young bodies you can get the better. The key is who the team picks when they actually use one of their selections.

The team's first-round pick, whenever it turned out to be, needed to address either the serious lack of pass rushers or the need to add some youth at one of the offensive skill positions. At the 22nd and then the 24th pick I exchanged texts with Mark, Jim, and Steve and we were all thinking that 6'-2'' wide receiver Dez Bryant would be a great choice. But the Cowboys took him at 24 after trading with the Pats. OK, back to the pass rusher. Jared Odrick, a DT from Penn St., and Sergio Kindle, a DE from Texas, were both available at 27. Either guy would fill the void left by Richard Seymour and Jarvis Green. Of course Belichick and the Pats had other thoughts. They always do. (No, thank goodness, not a tight end).

The Pats went cornerback with their first pick. 5'-11'' Devin McCourty from Rutgers is the newest Patriot. A cornerback? Certainly not what I was expecting. But in the pass happy NFL you can never have enough quality players in the defensive backfield. McCourty was listed as a top three cornerback in most of the scouting reports I had read before the draft, with most expecting him to go in the second round. He's considered a well-rounded player but not a shut-down corner. That doesn't seem like the ideal description of a player you want to take in the first round.

I felt a little better after McCourty's high school coach was quoted as saying he thinks he can be as good as the Jets' Darrelle Revis. OK, the coach seemed a little old -- and maybe a little senile -- but if McCourty has the potential to be anything close to Revis then this might turn out to be a solid pick. At the very least, with young players like Wheatley, Butler, Whilhite, and now McCourty, the Pats have a stable of young, athletic cornerbacks. That's never a bad thing. There doesn't seem to be a Chris Canty in the group.

Day one of the NFL Draft came to a close shortly after the Pats pick. It was the first prime-time draft, with just the first found being featured. (The draft resumes this evening with rounds two and three). Another great idea by the league. If the Patriots wind up with a top five pick next year thanks to the Raiders then I plan on making a trip to Manhattan to get a first-hand view of the first round. Now if I could only be sure Belichick will actually use the pick.


Wednesday, April 21, 2010

I've got a schedule to keep

The 2010 regular season schedule came out yesterday. It's gonna be a great year of tailgating. Before the team started winning championships, the day the schedule came out was a big one for me and Mark. We'd bring the Globe to our Quincy bar of choice (Cronin's, Nally's, the High Rise) and go over each game and decide if the Patriots had any chance of winning it. When Mark moved to NY we'd break it down over the phone. Before the 2001 season, any year we could predict a 9-7 wildcard finish was a year of optimism. As I've said before, things have sure changed.

Mark and I don't call each other when the schedule comes out anymore. After a decade of 16-0, 14-2, and 12-4 seasons I guess we don't feel the need to convince each other that there's hope. We know that we will return to doing that some day.

So, absent Mark's input, here's the week-by-week 2010 Patriots season as I see it. It's not going to be a cake walk to the playoffs, but I'm feeling positive.

WEEK 1 vs. Cincinnati
A good test to start. The Bengals were the surprise team in the AFC last year, sweeping both the Steelers and the Ravens to win the North. But they lost three out of their last five games and were one and done in the playoffs thanks to a lot of blown chances at home against the Jets. It's a home opener the Pats should win.

WEEK 2 @ NY Jets
The first of three straight divisional games. Seems the schedule makers don't want to wait long to see who really is the best team in the AFC East. A road win at NY would be a good way to shut up Mt. Ryan early. But that's a tall order against the best D in the league. You have to figure the Jets will take this one and then make sure you get even with them at home later.

WEEK 3 vs. Buffalo
A must-win home game. The Bills have dumped coach (and Belichick loyalist) Dick Jauron so we can no longer count on him gift wrapping two wins a year. That's too bad. The Bills almost upset the Pats in the opener last season. And they might be better this year. But I don't see new coach Chan Gailey having them that much improved by the third week.

WEEK 4 @ Miami
A Monday nighter against the Dolphins. It's great that games against Miami mean something again. It's the way it should be. Another thing we can thank the Tuna for. The Dolphins started to move away -- wisely -- from the Wildcat offense that won them the division in '08. They lost some tough games last year and dropped to 7-9 but there will be many who will predict that the Dolphins finish ahead of the Patriots. Not me. I can see the Pats going down to Miami and winning a big one on the road.

WEEK 5 Bye
Are games two through four way too early to say the success (or lack thereof) of the Patriots season will mostly be decided heading into an early bye? No. We will know quite a bit about the Patriots already. If they win their two home games and split on the road they will be at 3-1 (2-1 in the division). Anything more than that will be a sign that the team is starting to make the transition from the Bruschi/Harrison years to the Mayo/Wilfork years. Anything less than 3-1 and we're probably looking at another up and down year. Especially with the brutal schedule from here on.

WEEK 6 vs. Baltimore
The rematch. Regardless of the Pats record this will be a huge game. The Ravens crushing playoff win in Gillette is still fresh in my mind and I'm sure it will be for the Pats come Week 6. The fact that the Pats get their bye right before this game will make for quite a build-up, especially if both teams are playing well. And unlike the playoff game there will be Don Julio margaritas being poured on this day. I can't wait. I think the Pats are still the type of team that won't lose a grudge match like this.

WEEK 7 @ San Diego
If the Pats come into this game at 4-1 or better and go to SD and win on the road... well let's just say we will all start thinking the Pats are back. (Not that they have really gone anywhere). But that's a tall order. The Chargers won 11 straight games to finish at 13-3 last year but still managed to choke in the playoffs -- again. LT is gone. But Phillip Rivers isn't. He's the guy that wins games. This one likely goes to SD.

WEEK 8 vs. Minnesota
The Ravens, the Chargers, and then the Vikings? It's a hell of a schedule. 2010 is either going to be a lot fun or very ugly. The schedule won't allow much in between. I never thought I would say this but... I hope Brett Favre doesn't retire one more time. Can't you already get psyched at the thought of the NFL career interception leader coming to Foxborough on Halloween? Favre or no, Pats roll at home against a slightly overrated NFC team.

WEEK 9 @ Cleveland
This is one of the road games the team has to win. The Browns scored only 245 points last season and gave up 375 for one of the largest differentials in the league. Simply put the Browns are bad. Yet they still will win five or six times next season. The Pats have to make sure they aren't one of them. And they better because the next two games are going to be probably the toughest back-to-back games of the season.

WEEK 10 @ Pittsburgh
The Steelers have won two Super Bowls in the last five years and followed each by missing the playoffs. They've been an interesting team the past decade. And one of the Pats' main rivals. Going into Pittsburgh on a Sunday night and winning is not easy. I expect the Steelers to return to form and be a playoff team. Unless Big Ben is suspended. This is one of those games that will play a large role in who gets a playoff bye and who doesn't.

WEEK 11 vs. Indianapolis
As will this one. The Pats and Colts meet yet again. This time back at Gillette. You might remember last year's game for that little fourth down play near the end of the game. That might come up during the week before this one. Colts almost won their second Super Bowl with Peyton Manning but lost in a great game against the Saints. Will there be a hangover for them? I think so. Pats get the upper hand in this one.

WEEK 12 @ Detroit
Pass the gravy please. I have the Pats coming into their Turkey Day matchup with Detriot at 7-3. That means they should leave here 8-3. The Lions were 2-14 last year and should not be much better than that. The last time the Pats played the Lions on Thanskgiving was the 2000 season, Belichick's first with the team. I worked on Sundays when the Pats weren't at home so I didn't get to see any of the road games that year. "This is the first game I've gotten to sit on the couch and watch on TV this year,'' I told my nephew Pete. "I can't wait." Lions 34, Pats 9. I expect it to be different this time.

WEEK 13 vs. NY Jets
So in my perfect-world scenario the Pats come into this huge Monday night home game against the hated Jets at 8-3 or better. The beauty of it is that even if they are 6-5 this will still be a great night of tailgating if they can win. But I expect this to be a clash of division leaders. And I expect, like last year, for the Pats to even the score at home. As I expect, like last year, for the Pats to win the AFC East.

WEEK 14 @ Chicago
The team enters a string of three very winnable games. If their record is around 9-3 (as I hope), then these three games are where they can put away a first-round bye and then get healthy and rested for the playoffs. A cold-weather road trip to Chicago should give the Pats their 10th win.

WEEK 15 vs. Green Bay
Can the Patriots finish another year with a perfect record against the NFC? Yes. They've gone 15-1 against the other conference in the last four years. They should finish up a 4-0 campaign with a win over the Pack. If this was a road game I would have to give the nod to Green Bay, a definite playoff contender. But it's at home in December.

WEEK 16 @ Buffalo
This is a key division game for the Pats. A sweep of the Bills would go a long way towards winning the East. They have played some ugly late-season games in Ralph Wilson Stadium recently. This one probably won't be too pretty either. But an ugly win is a win nonetheless.

WEEK 17 vs. Miami
I'm predicting the Pats will strut into this game at 12-3 and the division wrapped up. Hey, what's the point of being a fan if you can't be positive? It's very possible this game could decide the division, or decide who goes to the playoffs and who doesn't. So in either case Foxborough will be the place to be on a cold January 2 day. What a schedule it is. What a season it could be.

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Tory party

The Patriots signed veteran wide receiver Tory Holt today as the possible answer as to who will be the wideout opposite Randy Moss. Get ready for the comparisons with Joey Galloway. Comparisons that should not be made.

Galloway was a solid NFL wide receiver for many years and many teams. He is five years older than Holt. When one player is nearing 40 and the other is nearing 35 that's a key five years. Galloway could have been a productive WR for the Pats. Unfortunately he decided he was ready to retire from the NFL. The problem was he didn't tell the team that. His play in the first few weeks of the season told them. He was done. A lot of comments have been made that Belichick blew it signing Galloway. How was he supposed to know the guy had lost the desire to play? It was just one of those moves that didn't work out. Happens all the time.

So now comes Tory Holt. Another veteran. But a totally different story. Holt, who will turn 35 in June, caught 51 passes for nearly 800 yards last year for a passing-challenged Jacksonville team. That should improve with Brady. Holt has also been very durable. In his 10-year career with the St. Louis Rams he started 147 out of 158 games. He's a worker. He has great hands. He's clutch. Joey Galloway was never all of those things.

The most important thing Holt brings to the team is being a winner. And, from watching interviews and highlights of his time with the Rams, he is a positive guy in the clubhouse. And he has a Super Bowl ring. The more guys like Tory Holt in the Pats locker the better.

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Taking stock

The Patriots have a dozen picks in this month's NFL draft. How many of them will Bill Belichick actually use? That's the $64,000 question. The thinking is that the team should use all of them to fill the many holes on the roster. A quick look at the position-by-position depth chart shows, to me, that this is still a top five AFC team without too many glaring weaknesses. OK, pass rush is a big one. But other than that ...

QUARTERBACK
Tom Brady: The future hall of famer is now a full season removed from his knee being blown out at the start of '08. He looked very ordinary in the team's playoff disaster against the Ravens, but he's still Brady. I'll take #12 at the QB position for as long as he can stand. I don't care how many mansions he builds. Backups: Fill in name of rookie/journeyman here.

RUNNING BACK
Laurence Maroney/Fred Taylor/Sammy Morris/Kevin Faulk: Missing among those four names is the stud back that can control and flat-out win games for you. That said this is still a very solid group. The Pats, despite lacking that lead back, have been a very good running team the past few years. If the team added a solid fullback and put Maroney or Taylor behind him and pounded the ball... well I'd sure be happy. But that's unlikely. If Taylor and/or Morris can stay healthy the Pats ground game will be fine. Backups: BenJarvis Green-Ellis and Chris Taylor.

WIDE RECEIVER
Randy Moss/Wes Welker/Julian Edelman: Welker's injury is the big question mark here. As is who will play the other wideout spot opposite Moss. Edelman seems more than capable of holding down the slot position till Welker returns. The verdict is out on whether we will see the '07 Moss who was unstoppable or the one of the last two seasons when he was merely unreliable. My fantasy team's name is Moss Racing. I'm not changing it. The team needs to add some depth here and hope for a return to form by Moss. I expect both to happen. Backups: David Patten, Sam Aiken, Matthew Slater, Brandon Tate, Darnell Jenkins.

TIGHT END
Alge Crumpler: The team has a veteran tight end who hopefully won't have bad drops or fumbles. That's good enough at this position. Backups: Like I said, one tight end is plenty. (See: http://tjtailgatetales.blogspot.com/2010/06/tighten-up.html)

OFFENSIVE LINE
Matt Light (LT), Logan Mankins (LG), Dan Koppen (C), Stephen Neal (RG), Nick Kaczur (RT): This starting five is so strong that LT Sebastian Vollmer -- maybe Belichick's best draft pick of the past several years -- is a backup. They protect the quarterback very well. When your quarterback is Tom Brady that is job one. If given the chance to pin their ears back I think they would be a solid run blocking line too. Backups: Vollmer, Dan Connolly, Mark LeVoir, Rich Ohrnberger, Ryan Wendell.

DEFENSIVE LINE
Ty Warren (LE), Vince Wilfork (NT), ???????? (RE): It still seems weird to not write Richard Seymour on that list. Maybe it won't feel as weird after the Pats come away with a top 10 pick from the Raiders next year. Wilfork and Ty Warren make this still one of the best D lines against the run. Wilfork alone does that. With the loss of Jarvis Green the Pats will be looking for someone to play right end. Hopefully someone with a motor who can get after the quarterback. Who fills that spot should be a focus of the draft and will be a key to the team's success on '10. There's also some solid talent in the reserves with Mike Wright and Ron Brace. Backups: Wright, Brace, Myron Pryor.

LINEBACKERS
Jerod Mayo, Tully Banta-Cain, Gary Guyton, Derrick Burgess: Oh how the names have changed. No more Bruschi, McGinnest, Vrabel, Johnson. That was a foursome that won three Super Bowl titles. One of the best ever. You can't replace guys like that quickly. It's a process that the Pats are probably at the midpoint of entering this season. Mayo's injury was a large reason for the Pats 10-6 record last year. A return to the way he was playing down the stretch of his rookie season should be expected. Banta-Cain, Guyton, and Burgess (if and when he re-signs) are all solid players but the linebacking corp needs another young potential star like Mayo. A drafting priority. Backups: Pierre Woods, Eric Alexander, Shawn Crable, Rob Ninkovich, Tyrone McKenzie.

CORNERBACK
Leigh Bodden, Darius Butler: The veteran Bodden brought back some consistency to the cornerback spot. Butler showed flashes as a rookie, but just flashes. This is another position where a young impact player who exceeds expectations and plays for a low salary for five years is sorely needed. No more Shawn Springs-type players need apply. Backups: The young duo of Terrence Wheatley and Jonathan Whilhite may step to the fore this season. The potential is there.

SAFETY
Brandon Meriweather, Brandon McGowan: Meriweather made it to the Pro Bowl in just his third season with the team. When he is good he's very good. He's just not that good often enough yet. McGowan played better than the journeyman he had looked like his first three years in Chicago. I'd prefer to see backup James Sanders as the starter. Backups: Sanders, Pat Chung.

SPECIAL TEAMS
Stephen Gostkowski: The team has no punter at the moment but there are always veteran legs out there you can rent for a season. Gostkowski is the best young kicker in the game. Almost makes me a little less bitter about letting Vinatieri go to Indy.

Scanning the depth chart two things stand out. First, the players at the offensive skill positions are not a young group. Brady, Faulk, Moss, Taylor, Patten. The team is in need of one or two young skills guys who can be the playmakers for years to come. Dez Bryant or Golden Tate maybe? The second thing? No pass rush. Those two issues will have to be priorities on April 22.