Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Final review

What was a great NFL regular season came to a curious end this past Sunday. The Seahawks and Rams closed out the day with a winner-take-all NFC West clash. Normally you would think that would be a great game. However, the Rams were 7-8 and the Pete Carroll-led Seahawks were 6-9. Yes, 6-9 and playing for a division title. Which Seattle won in a really poor exhibition of football. The Seahawks may be one of the 12 teams in the playoffs, but they are not close to one of the 12 best teams. However, the other 11 that did make the playoffs are all very good teams. As usual, the tournament is wide open.

1. New England Patriots (14-2): I optimistically thought the Pats would be 13-3. They were really only a handful of big-plays-not-made away from a much better year last year. I just figured that a Belichick-coached team would start to make more plays. But not this many. From Woodhead to Gronk, McCourty to Chung, young players have stepped up week after week to make life that much easier for Brady and Wilfork. Like every playoff team, the Pats have issues. But to this point they have been able to overcome them.

2. Atlanta Falcons (13-3): The NFC's version of the Patriots? Pretty much. The Falcons' D is -- statistically at least -- a little better than New England's but the Pats offense is a little better. The Falcons have a balanced attack. Matt Ryan, Roddy White, and Michael Turner are as good a trio as there is. Atlanta is playoff ready, having played in and won a tough division with both New Orleans and Tampa. Like the Pats, the Falcons rarely beat themselves. The Saints are the defending champs, but Atlanta has to be the NFC favorite.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4): Tom Brady is clearly the MVP of the league. Most people put Michael Vick right behind him. Not me. I'd put Troy Polamalu and his curls in that spot. The Steelers are a good team without him (which for Steeler fans is probably too often). They are a great team with him. He is a difference maker. It seemed that every time I watched a Pittsburgh game he would be making a game-winning play. On the other side of the ball, Big Ben is as tough as they come and a proven champ. I'm just glad if the Pats and Steelers meet that it will be in Foxborough.

4. New Orleans Saints (11-5): The defending champs sure took some knocks this year. Losses to Cleveland and Arizona were partly due to injuries and partly due to just how difficult it is to repeat. Each year that goes by makes me appreciate more the back-to-back 14-2 seasons the Pats put up. Like the Patriots, New Orleans has a great coach and QB. Unlike the Pats, the Saints D has played well this year. It looked like they were getting healthy again, only to lose a few key players in the season finale. Can the Saints get back to the Super Bowl? I wouldn't bet against them.

5. Baltimore Ravens (12-4): Fortunately the Ravens won't be coming to Gillette in the first round. They are headed west to play KC. I would think they would be favored. They are that good. Baltimore plays a perfect style for the playoffs. Tough, hard-nosed on offense and defense. Ray Lewis will be screaming while Ed Reed makes plays. I'll be rooting for the Chiefs to get the Ravens out of the playoffs. If it doesn't happen, Baltimore is capable of going into Pittsburgh or New England (or both) and winning.

6. Chicago Bears (11-5): I'm just not a Bears believer. The coach often looks clueless. The QB often looks brainless. Yet they earned a bye. Reason? Julius Peppers and the defense. Chicago finished fourth in the league in points allowed. With Peppers causing havoc on the line, the Bears were second in the league against the run. Surprisingly, with Peppers also leading a solid pass rush, they were only 20th against the pass. The Bears might make it to the NFL title game, but if it is in Atlanta I think their season ends there. Although I would love them to get to the Super Bowl against the Patriots. '85 avenged!

7. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6): Philly was riding high after their comeback against the Giants in Week 15. Sitting at 10-4, the Eagles had a good shot at a bye. They proceeded to lose their last two games, to Minnesota and Dallas. Two teams out of the playoff race. So much for being the team to beat. Michael Vick is always dangerous. He can win a game by himself. The Eagles will be tough to beat at home in the Wild Card round. After that I'm not so sure.

8. New York Jets (11-5): Huh. I thought Rex Ryan had said something at the start of the season about the Jets finishing with the best record in the league. Maybe I was mistaken. Gang Green hasn't recovered from the Monday night beating at Gillette. Actually, they haven't recovered from the loss of safety and defensive captain Jim Leonard. An old school guy like that is hard to replace. QB Sanchez showed last year that he can handle the playoff pressure. That is key. Playing on the road is not a problem for the Jets. That makes them very dangerous.

9. Indianapolis Colts (10-6): Peyton Manning makes it to the tourney again. This one wasn't easy. Even though the Colts were in the Super Bowl last year, they won a lot of games in miraculous fashion to get there. They were good. And they were lucky. They haven't been as lucky this year. Nor as good. The thinking is that any team with #18 at QB will be tough to beat. True. The Colts aren't as well coached as the Pats, Steelers, or Ravens and they won't have the comfort of their dome when it really counts. The Super Bowl-loser hangover has been a real killer.

10. Kansas City Chiefs (10-6): My favorite team other than the Pats (Len Dawson, Hank Stram, 65 Toss Power Trap) has gotten back on track thanks to several ex Pats. The Chiefs held off the overrated Chargers to win the AFC West and are tough to beat at home. They only lost to one playoff team all year (Indy). Problem is they only played one playoff team all year. Not the way to get playoff ready. But coaches Charlie Weiss and Romeo Crennel have lots of playoff experience. That should help an inexperienced Matt Cassell.

11. Green Bay Packers (10-6): The Pack may have underachieved more than any other playoff team. Then again, if you look at the key injuries the team had maybe they actually overachieved. Either way, they are a very dangerous 10-6 wild card team. Aaron Rodgers and the offense (even without a running game) can put up points in a hurry. But like division rival Chicago, the key to the Pack's success is the defense. Green Bay, led by linebackers Clay Matthews and A.J. Hawk, gave up only 15 points a game. If they can maintain that in the playoffs they should be in the NFC title game.

12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-6): The only non-playoff team on the list. Raheem Morris went 3-13 in his rookie year in '09. His team made huge strides this year. Without a lot of top shelf talent. That's the sign of a good coach. Mike Singletary should watch and learn. No-name players Josh Freeman (QB) and LeGarrette Blount (RB) gave the offense some life. The defense, led by Ronde Barber and Aqib Talib, was ninth in the league in points allowed. The Bucs are worthy of being a playoff team even if they won't be there.

Dishonorable mention: The entire NFC West. Come on. Not one of these teams could muster a winning record? How's that possible? I thought the Niners would take advantage of an easy division and win 11 games. They won 6. Then I thought the Cardinals -- division winners the last few years -- could step up. Five wins. That left the "rebuilding" Seahawks and Rams to stage an epic battle for the division. Seattle, at 7-9, took the division crown. Hey, somebody had to win it.



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