So there's really not much need to look back at last Thursday's game against the Jets except when you are feeling blue and need a good laugh. Then you should look back at the Sanchez play. Other than that it's time to look ahead to the final five games of the regular season. The division is just about wrapped up but there is still a very tight battle for the second seed and a first-round bye.
Let's assume that the 10-1 Texans hold on to the top spot in the AFC. It's a pretty good bet. The question is who will be #2? At the moment it is the 9-2 Ravens. Right on their heels are the 8-3 Pats and 8-3 Broncos. How important is it to get the two seed, a week off, and home playoff game? Well, if you ask the New York Giants it's not that important at all. But the odds of making the AFC title game are much better if all you have to do is win one home game to get there. If the Giants want to try to win another Super Bowl by going 9-7 and playing three road playoff games let them.
The Ravens have stolen several close wins (like Sunday's game against the Chargers), but considering the number of key injuries the team has had on defense their 9-2 record is impressive. They hold the tie-breaker against the Pats with their win earlier in the year so they really have a two-game lead over them. That's a problem. But the Pats beat the Broncos so they have the tie-breaker against them. If all three teams ended up tied then it would go to the "conference record" tie-breaker. Right now the Pats and Ravens only have one conference loss while the Broncos have two. Who will blink first?
Here are the remaining games for each team. The games listed in green are the ones where the chance of winning has to be considered better than 80 percent. The games in red are the ones where the chance of winning is no better than 50 percent. The games in yellow are the ones that fall in between:
PATRIOTS RAVENS BRONCOS
Wk 13 @-Miami H-Pittsburgh H-Tampa Bay
Wk 14 H-Houston @-Washington @-Oakland
Wk 15 H-San Fran H-Denver @-Baltimore
Wk 16 @-Jacksonville H-NY Giants H-Cleveland
Wk 17 H-Miami @-Cincy H-Kansas City
Let's go week by week.
Week 13: This weekend each team has a tough -- but winnable -- game. The Pats go down to Miami where they have had their problems over the years. And Miami is coming off a strong game against Seattle. But can the Dolphins keep pace with Brady and the offense? No. The Ravens host their arch rivals the Steelers. Pittsburgh is banged up and coming off an ugly loss to Cleveland. The Steelers will be focused and motivated to save their playoff hopes. But is it enough to go into Baltimore and win on the road? No. The Broncos host the 6-5 Bucs. Denver had problems against the worst-in-the-league Chiefs last Sunday while Tampa almost beat the 10-1 Falcons. The Bucs have the best run D in the league. I think Tampa forces Manning to make some mistakes and pulls off the upset. Three very close games that really could go either way. (Ravens 10-2, Patriots 9-3, Broncos 8-4).
Week 14: The Pats are at a severe disadvantage this week. Even though they are the only one of the three contenders at home, they have to play the Texans on Monday Night Football. It is the biggest test for the Pats this year. Houston is third in the league in total offense with a balanced attack. But the Pats are first in the league. It's on the other side of the ball that the Texans have the advantage. They are 6th in total defense. The Pats are way down the list at 27th. The Pats have to have this game to get the second seed and I think they rise to the occasion and get it. They are more accustomed to the big stage than the Texans. But confidence is not high. It's definitely a "red" game. The Ravens and Broncos go on the road against two average teams. The Ravens take on RG3 and the Skins while Manning faces off against Oakland. Those are tough road games and its very possible one of them (the Ravens) could stumble. But for the sake of argument let's say the Pats win a huge home game and the Ravens and Broncos eke out tough road wins. (Ravens 11-2, Patriots 10-3, Broncos 9-4).
Week 15: This is the week that will decide it. The Broncos go to Baltimore and if the Ravens can win they pretty much lock up the second seed because they will have beaten both the Pats and the Broncos. But what if Manning and the Denver offense can exploit the aging Raven D and get the win? That will hand the Ravens their third loss and more importantly their second in the conference. And if the Pats actually did beat the Texans the week before then all they would need to do is win a home game to pull into a tie with two weeks to go. Problem is that home game is against the San Francisco 49ers. The team with the best defense in the game. And the best rushing attack. It should be a heck of Sunday Night game. But can the Pats beat the Texans and the Niners in back-to-back weeks? I don't think so. And if they are going to lose one then the one against the NFC team is the one to lose. (Ravens, 11-3, Patriots 10-4, Broncos 10-4).
Week 16: The Ravens are at a disadvantage this week. They get the defending champion Giants at home while the Pats go on the road against the Jags and the Broncos host the Browns. Those are pretty close to sure wins for the Pats and Broncos. I think the long-haul of the season begins to catch up with the Ravens and they get beat by Little Manning and the Giants who will be fighting to win their division. Three-way tie with one week to go for the two seed. (Ravens 11-4, Patriots 11-4, Broncos 11-4).
Week 17: The Ravens are again at a disadvantage, only because the Pats and Broncos have pretty easy games at home to finish out the season. The Pats host Miami on what will probably be a frigid Saturday afternoon. The Broncos have an even easier game, hosting the soon-to-have-the-#1-pick Chiefs. Those are very likely wins, putting each team at 12-4. The Ravens have to go to Cincinnati to play the Bengals who will probably be battling for one of the wild card spots. Let's say Andy Dalton and AJ Green stay hot and hand the Ravens their third straight loss to finish 11-5. The Pats and Broncos finish tied but the Pats would get the second seed because they have the head-to-head victory. (Patriots 12-4 and the #2 seed, Broncos 12-4, Ravens 11-5).
That's one possible outcome. Of course it really is impossible to pick a winner in Broncos-Ravens, or Broncos-Bucs, or Ravens-Giants, or Pats-Niners. That's what will make these last few weeks so much fun. The Patriots, Broncos, and Ravens will lock up their division in the next two weeks, but that doesn't mean they won't have a lot to play for down the stretch. A week off and a home playoff game means a lot to all three.
The Ravens have stolen several close wins (like Sunday's game against the Chargers), but considering the number of key injuries the team has had on defense their 9-2 record is impressive. They hold the tie-breaker against the Pats with their win earlier in the year so they really have a two-game lead over them. That's a problem. But the Pats beat the Broncos so they have the tie-breaker against them. If all three teams ended up tied then it would go to the "conference record" tie-breaker. Right now the Pats and Ravens only have one conference loss while the Broncos have two. Who will blink first?
Here are the remaining games for each team. The games listed in green are the ones where the chance of winning has to be considered better than 80 percent. The games in red are the ones where the chance of winning is no better than 50 percent. The games in yellow are the ones that fall in between:
PATRIOTS RAVENS BRONCOS
Wk 13 @-Miami H-Pittsburgh H-Tampa Bay
Wk 14 H-Houston @-Washington @-Oakland
Wk 15 H-San Fran H-Denver @-Baltimore
Wk 16 @-Jacksonville H-NY Giants H-Cleveland
Wk 17 H-Miami @-Cincy H-Kansas City
Let's go week by week.
Week 13: This weekend each team has a tough -- but winnable -- game. The Pats go down to Miami where they have had their problems over the years. And Miami is coming off a strong game against Seattle. But can the Dolphins keep pace with Brady and the offense? No. The Ravens host their arch rivals the Steelers. Pittsburgh is banged up and coming off an ugly loss to Cleveland. The Steelers will be focused and motivated to save their playoff hopes. But is it enough to go into Baltimore and win on the road? No. The Broncos host the 6-5 Bucs. Denver had problems against the worst-in-the-league Chiefs last Sunday while Tampa almost beat the 10-1 Falcons. The Bucs have the best run D in the league. I think Tampa forces Manning to make some mistakes and pulls off the upset. Three very close games that really could go either way. (Ravens 10-2, Patriots 9-3, Broncos 8-4).
Week 14: The Pats are at a severe disadvantage this week. Even though they are the only one of the three contenders at home, they have to play the Texans on Monday Night Football. It is the biggest test for the Pats this year. Houston is third in the league in total offense with a balanced attack. But the Pats are first in the league. It's on the other side of the ball that the Texans have the advantage. They are 6th in total defense. The Pats are way down the list at 27th. The Pats have to have this game to get the second seed and I think they rise to the occasion and get it. They are more accustomed to the big stage than the Texans. But confidence is not high. It's definitely a "red" game. The Ravens and Broncos go on the road against two average teams. The Ravens take on RG3 and the Skins while Manning faces off against Oakland. Those are tough road games and its very possible one of them (the Ravens) could stumble. But for the sake of argument let's say the Pats win a huge home game and the Ravens and Broncos eke out tough road wins. (Ravens 11-2, Patriots 10-3, Broncos 9-4).
Week 15: This is the week that will decide it. The Broncos go to Baltimore and if the Ravens can win they pretty much lock up the second seed because they will have beaten both the Pats and the Broncos. But what if Manning and the Denver offense can exploit the aging Raven D and get the win? That will hand the Ravens their third loss and more importantly their second in the conference. And if the Pats actually did beat the Texans the week before then all they would need to do is win a home game to pull into a tie with two weeks to go. Problem is that home game is against the San Francisco 49ers. The team with the best defense in the game. And the best rushing attack. It should be a heck of Sunday Night game. But can the Pats beat the Texans and the Niners in back-to-back weeks? I don't think so. And if they are going to lose one then the one against the NFC team is the one to lose. (Ravens, 11-3, Patriots 10-4, Broncos 10-4).
Week 16: The Ravens are at a disadvantage this week. They get the defending champion Giants at home while the Pats go on the road against the Jags and the Broncos host the Browns. Those are pretty close to sure wins for the Pats and Broncos. I think the long-haul of the season begins to catch up with the Ravens and they get beat by Little Manning and the Giants who will be fighting to win their division. Three-way tie with one week to go for the two seed. (Ravens 11-4, Patriots 11-4, Broncos 11-4).
Week 17: The Ravens are again at a disadvantage, only because the Pats and Broncos have pretty easy games at home to finish out the season. The Pats host Miami on what will probably be a frigid Saturday afternoon. The Broncos have an even easier game, hosting the soon-to-have-the-#1-pick Chiefs. Those are very likely wins, putting each team at 12-4. The Ravens have to go to Cincinnati to play the Bengals who will probably be battling for one of the wild card spots. Let's say Andy Dalton and AJ Green stay hot and hand the Ravens their third straight loss to finish 11-5. The Pats and Broncos finish tied but the Pats would get the second seed because they have the head-to-head victory. (Patriots 12-4 and the #2 seed, Broncos 12-4, Ravens 11-5).
That's one possible outcome. Of course it really is impossible to pick a winner in Broncos-Ravens, or Broncos-Bucs, or Ravens-Giants, or Pats-Niners. That's what will make these last few weeks so much fun. The Patriots, Broncos, and Ravens will lock up their division in the next two weeks, but that doesn't mean they won't have a lot to play for down the stretch. A week off and a home playoff game means a lot to all three.
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