Shooting blanks

It's a rare thing in the NFL these days when a team gets shut out. Especially at home.

San Francisco 34, NY Jets 0. How you feeling about "the best team I've ever had" now, Rex? Not too good.

The "Tee-bow! Tee-bow!" chant should start before next Monday night's clash with the unbeaten Texans even begins. The Jets may have the same 2-2 record as the Patriots but they are in big trouble. Mark Sanchez completed just 13 passes for 103 yards with zero touchdowns (of course, since they didn't score) and one pick. The Niners have a great defense but those are ugly numbers.

I kept waiting for Tebow to come in and run some Wildcat plays but the highest paid backup QB in the league did nothing. The Niners backup -- Colin Kaepernick -- came in and showed Ryan, Sparano, and the Jets how the Wildcat is done. Kaepernick -- no, he didn't sink the winning putt for Europe in the Ryder Cup -- ran the Wildcat option in for a touchdown. He finished with 50 yards rushing from the QB spot. Tebow? He had two rushes for zero yards.

Zero. That was a big number for the Jets today.

The other guys

The Patriots go to Buffalo to play as important an early season division game as you can get. A loss and the Bills will go to 3-1 and the Pats will fall to 1-3. There's a lot of football left to play, but there's a lot on the line in this one.

The Buffalo Bills are the other guys in the AFC East. The Patriots have had a heated rivalry with the hated Jets and the arrogant Dolphins for decades. No matter how good or bad those two franchises are in any given season it's always sweet to beat them. The Bills? ... eh. Even when Buffalo was dominating the NFL in the early '90s (except in the Super Bowl) there wasn't much anti-Buffalo sentiment in New England.

Why? Because the Bills' fans have been as long-suffering as Pats' fans were before Bill Belichick and Tom Brady arrived. And unlike the always annoying Jets or always cocky Dolphins, the Bills are always classy. As are their fans. And that's saying something with all the heartbreak they have endured. I worked with a diehard Bills fan for many years. She would proudly wear her white jersey with the big blue buffalo in the center as her team lost Super Bowl after crushing Super Bowl.

When I was a kid the Bills were O.J. Simpson. He would come into Foxborough and run for what seemed like 300 yards every game. But even with one of the greatest running backs of all time the Bills were never really a contender. It wasn't until Jim Kelly, Bruce Smith, Thurman Thomas, and the rest of one of the best teams ever to play in the NFL was assembled in the '90s. The K-Gun offense. Marv Levy telling war stories. A ferocious defense. The Bills dominated the AFC and went to four straight Super Bowls. It was an amazing feat. And I was rooting for them each time. They lost the first one to the Giants on the famous "wide right" last second kick and each loss got progressively worse. Never has so good a team left their fans with so sour a taste.

The Bills haven't been a contender since. They've had a few good seasons but seem to always find a way to lose. There was the "Music City Miracle" where they lost on a crazy kick return lateral on the last play of the game. There was even the game in 2001 where they took the Patriots to overtime only to lose when David Patten's fumble was ruled not a fumble because his unconscious head was touching the sideline when he dropped the ball.

Then they got Lawyer Milloy and Drew Bledsoe from the Pats and beat them 31-0 on opening day in 2003 and thought they were going to make another run at a Super Bowl only to see the Patriots return the 31-0 favor in the last week of the season on their way to their second of three Super Bowls. The Pats would go on to dominate the Bills for a decade. The Patriots have won 21 out of the last 23 games against the team from western New York. The Bills have managed to find lots of ways to lose to the Pats. Here's hoping they find another way today.

Week 3 rewind

At the start of the 2011 season the Patriots hadn't lost back-to-back games in almost a decade. After Sunday's last-second loss to the Ravens it has happened two years in a row. Last year the Pats came out of their bye week and dropped games to the Steelers and Giants. They didn't lose again till the Super Bowl. This year they've dropped two consecutive close ones. They probably won't win their next 10 games like last year but they should win a lot more than they lose the rest of the way.

The wild and crazy loss to the Ravens was looking all good entering the second quarter Sunday night. After that it was about 50-50 good and bad.

GOOD

• Tom Brady. The future hall of famer added another gem to his resume. He was in total control in a hostile environment. He spread the ball around, got rid of it quickly, made very few unforced errors, and had the team in position for a huge road win against a conference rival. Sadly his defense couldn't wrap it up for him.
• Brandon Lloyd. Lost in all the "what's up with Welker?" talk has been the excellent play of the new #85. After three games he's tied for sixth in the league with 22 catches. He has shown he can run the crisp routes that Brady demands and his ability to make the sideline grab and tap his toes is amazing. He now needs to get into the end zone.
• Wes Welker and Julian Edelman. Or is it Edelman first and Welker second? Of course it's Welker first. He's still the best slot receiver in the game. His role was reduced in the first two weeks because tight end Aaron Hernandez is the second-best slot receiver in the game. There are only so many passes to go around. Welker will catch 90 balls before it's all said and done. Edelman won't catch nearly that many, but he had a nice touchdown against the Ravens D and his versatility makes him very valuable.
• Bill Belichick. OK, not the part where he tugged on the ref's jersey. The part where a week after his team stunk it up in the home opener he and his staff had them ready for the challenge against a great Baltimore team. The Pats didn't win, but it wasn't because of the coaching.
• Offensive line. It looks like Brian Waters isn't coming back. But it also looks like the line will be able to hold its own without him. The line hasn't been spectacular, but it has been solid. And barring injury it should keep getting better.

BAD

• Play calling. Sometimes Josh McDaniels is just a little too clever for his own good. On the Pats's drive after the Ravens' first score Brady had moved the offense to midfield when McDaniels called a direct snap to Woody/reverse to Edelman play. The play lost 13 yards, killed the drive, and soon the Ravens were scoring again to take the lead. Don't get tricky with the lead in Baltimore. Save that for Miami.
• Run defense. What run defense? There was very little of it after the first quarter. Big Vince and Kyle Love got pushed around and linebackers Spikes and Mayo were constantly guessing wrong. I don't think you'll see that happen again any time soon.
• Pass rush. What pass rush? Jones and Ninko were held in check all night. Flacco never had to flinch. From the replays it looked like Jones and Ninko were literally held all night thanks to the fake refs not calling offensive holding. But even if that was the case the defense has to find some way to get pressure on the QB. 
• Officiating. Well, we don't have to worry about that anymore. 

The Pats head to Buffalo. A place where they lost last year and a place where I felt before the season started they will lose again. I hope I'm wrong. It's an early must-win game.

Communication breakdown

Well ... it has sure hit the fan now.

If you foolishly stayed up late last night to watch all of the Seahawks-Packers game like I did then you saw the NFL's fake refs implode on national television. You think the officiating in the Pats-Ravens game was bad? Around midnight last night the fake refs took a big road victory away from the Pack and handed it to Pete Carroll and his Seahawks. The final play of the game -- a Hail Mary by Seattle -- was intercepted by Green Bay's M.D. Jennings in the corner of the end zone. Anyone but the most diehard Seattle fans (and the NFL) looking at the video below would have to agree with that. Seattle receiver Golden Tate gets an arm in there and claws away at the ball but it's clear who has "possession" and who doesn't.

It was even clear to one of the two refs on the field who made the call. The other ref, the one who signaled touchdown but really had no idea what had just happened, takes a look at his fellow fake ref and sees him starting to put his arms up so he too throws his arms up ... to signal touchdown. Problem is that the other ref was raising his arms to signal ... an interception and a touchback. Ooops. The two officials never talked to each other before making a signal as the regular officials would have. And after they made different calls they just stood there. Lost. The head ref, the man in the white hat, is no where to be found for a long time, thus allowing mass confusion to ensue. It was a mess. And it was all caused because there was no communication between the officials.

And that's where the real problem with the fake refs comes in. All refs -- real or fake -- make bad calls. It's just going to happen. Even to the best of refs. They have to make hundreds of split second decisions each weekend. But what the real refs do is prevent a game that is played on the edge of chaos from actually devolving into that chaos. And that's no easy feat.

Simply put .... the real refs, most of them in their 50s and 60s, manage to maintain total control and authority over giant athletes who are playing a ferocious game in an almost-out-of-control state of mind. Guys like Ed Hochuli never look confused. They are always in command and always communicating with their fellow officials. Everyone knows who is in charge. That's why the regular refs are a very important part of the game.

The fake refs have totally lost control of that game. ESPN's Gregg Easterbrook writes a good piece about this. The Pats-Ravens game had more skirmishes and pushing contests after the play than you normally see in a month of football. The regular refs know how to take control in those situations ... toss a lot of flags high in the air so all the players can see them and get in their faces. The fake refs mostly just stand there looking like I would ... lost in a scrum of NFL players.

Packer Greg Jennings was asked about the rough play after the game last night. The veteran wide receiver said he had never played in an NFL game where players were just taking shots at each other and the refs were doing nothing about it. The only way to make the players think twice about unloading on someone is to keep control of the game. The fake refs can't seem to do that. Someone is going to get hurt. And then the NFL will have a real problem.

Close calls

WEEK 3
"We need to start winning close games."

That was Tom Brady's spot-on analysis after the Pats lost an entertaining and excruciating 31-30 brawl to the Ravens to drop to 1-2 on the young season.

Rich, my co-worker and most loyal reader (OK, my only loyal reader) asked last week "Are the Patriots still clutch?" It was a good question then and an even better question today. The answer at the moment has to be... no. Sure, Brady and the offense staged a great two-minute drive to retake the lead at the end of the first half last night. Last year there was a great comeback against Dallas and before the Ravens missed that kick in the AFC title game Brady lead the Pats on a great march capped by his gutsy lunge into the end zone. But when it really counts. When they really need a stop. Or a first down. They just can't get it done.

The Blabosphere will be buzzing with talk of replacement refs and bad calls. There were lots of those, for sure. But the officiating didn't decide the outcome of the game. It may have caused a lot of cases of heartburn for players and fans alike, but it was equally bad for both teams. The game -- as it always is -- was decided by the coaches and players. And once again, those wearing the Pats' logo came up short when it counted.

It's the second week in a row that the Patriots lost a close one. It's been a problem for a few years now. Finishing. It's what all great teams do. The Patriots knew how to finish when they were winning Super Bowls.  Almost all of those players are gone now. Belichick's new model has yet to master that skill.

The Patriots may not know how to finish, but they are often very good at starting. The Pats came out of the gate looking to make a statement after their sloppy play last week and only the most negative of Pats' fans didn't think they would. They always do. And they did it again last night. The defense -- which had been rock solid for two weeks -- looked stout again. The Ravens' first three possessions in front of a fired up home crowd went punt, interception, punt. Stud running back Ray Rice could do nothing. Brady and the offense used that momentum to build a 13-0 lead. As the Ravens faced a 3rd-and-6 at their own 22 to start the second quarter things were looking very good. And then the fake refs began what would be a long, long night of questionable, puzzling, and laughable calls.

Flacco came under pressure and dumped the ball off to Rice who had Jerod Mayo on his heels. The ball fell harmlessly incomplete and it looked like the Pats' D had stopped the Ravens on four straight drives. Then the yellow flag hit the turf and the Ravens had a first down and some much needed momentum. Two things would continue to happen from that moment on... the Ravens offense would shred the Pats' D almost at will and the fake refs would throw enough flags to make everyone watching feel pretty ill.

Vince Wilfork said after the game that the erratic officiating made it hard for the defense to play their game. It made then tentative. I love Big Vince but that's pretty lame. It didn't stop Ed Reed or Ray Lewis. And it really shouldn't have anything to do with stopping the run. The Pats' D hadn't given up 300 yards in either of their first two games. Last night the Ravens piled up more than 500 yards of offense. It's a close call as to which was worse... the fake refs or the Pats' defense.

And yet each time Baltimore would take the lead, Brady and the offense would have a response and drive for a huge score. It was as good a game that the offense has played in a while, especially considering the loss of Aaron Hernandez and most "experts" predicting the offense would struggle to find a way to replace him. They found a way and with just more than 14 minutes to play held a 30-21 lead. Time for another chance to close out a game. The Pats' D forced a Ravens punt and the offense picked up a couple of key first downs. Mesko dropped a beautiful punt down to the Baltimore 8 with seven and a half minutes to play. The Pats were all set up to finish out a huge road win.

The Ravens, sometimes with the help of the fake refs and sometimes with the help of the Pats' D, drove the ball 92 yards for a touchdown with four minutes to play. 30-28. Time for Brady and the offense to get a few first downs and close out the game. Which they couldn't quite do despite some serious help from the fake refs. Mesko had to punt at the two minute warning, giving the Ravens the ball at their 21 with 1:55 to play.

Everyone in my den agreed it was time for the defense to finally ... finally ... make a stand and close out a big win. But as we have seen many times before the defense couldn't finish. It wasn't even close. Flacco drove the Ravens down the field with ease to set up the winning field goal.

Unlike last year's AFC title game, this time the Raven kicker put the ball through the uprights (barely) and Baltimore won a hard fought and hard earned victory.

It was another close call for the Pats. As Brady said, it's time the Pats to make some of those calls go their way.

Heroes and villains

The Patriots' main rival during their Super Bowl years was the Indianapolis Colts. Sure, the Jets were the hated division enemy from New York. The Steelers were the greatest franchise in NFL history that couldn't beat the Pats when it counted. The Chargers were the Norv-led contenders who could never quite stop beating themselves. But year after year it was Peyton Manning and the Colts that stood between the Patriots and the Super Bowl.

That era has long passed, coming to a conclusion in the Arizona desert in the winter of '08. The Patriots are still Super Bowl contenders but the Colts have tumbled to the AFC depths while Manning is throwing passes in the mile-high air of Denver. Many would say that Skinny Rex and the dysfunctional Jets have taken over the Colts' role as the Pats' arch enemy. Not so. The Jets aren't good enough (yet) or nasty enough to fill that role.

But Ray Lewis and the Baltimore Ravens are.

The two best teams in the AFC (sorry Steelers) square off again tonight in the biggest game of the week and one of the biggest games of the year. It's not just a chance for both teams to get back on track after disappointing losses last week. It's a game that could -- and probably will -- decide where the two teams will play when they meet again in January. It was the same with the Pats and the Colts. The Pats would win the regular season match-up, thus making Manning and the Colts come to frigid Gillette to lose in the playoffs. It wasn't until the Colts starting winning in the regular season that they were able to make the Pats come to the comforts of the Dome where they were finally able to slay their enemy.

Every champion needs a rival. Every hero needs a villain. Now it's the Ravens' turn. They have been preparing for this role for years.

Most football fans had a bias against the Ravens from the moment their hideous Edgar Allan Poe logo was created in 1996. The recently deceased Art Modell moved the beloved Cleveland Browns right out from under the pug noses of the Dog Pound and took them to Baltimore back in the day when NFL owners were treating their teams like fast-food franchises. Load up the truck in the middle of the night, move to a new city, slap a new logo on it ... instant franchise! Modell may have been one of the key builders of the NFL, but in the eyes of many fans he was scum for moving the Browns to Baltimore. His crime paid off a few years later with a Super Bowl title, lead by loudmouths (and hall of famers to be) Ray Lewis and Shannon Sharpe. The brash-talking Ravens were born.

The Patriots and the Ravens have played each other just eight times in the nearly 20 years the purple and black have been in existence. And the Pats have won seven of those eight. Each time the Ravens have come into the game thinking they were the better team and each time (but once) the Pats crushed them one way or another. Their first meeting was back in '96, with the Pats winning a wild one. I barely remember the game other than it was a Drew Bledsoe-Vinnie Testaverde gunslinger battle. The Pats would go on to an unexpected trip to the Super Bowl that year while the Ravens won just four games in their inaugural season.

The next meeting was at the end of the 1999 season. The end of the Pete Carroll disaster. The Patriots thrashed the Ravens 20-3 in the regular season finale to finish at 8-8. Fortunately it did not save Pete Carroll's job. The Ravens also finished 8-8. The next year they would win the Super Bowl ... and the Pats would begin the Belichick era. The next time the two teams would meet -- in 2004 -- both franchises were sporting Super Bowl rings and cocky attitudes. The Ravens and Ray Lewis came into Gillette on a cold, rainy Thanksgiving weekend and the 9-1 Patriots dominated them 24-3. Corey Dillon carried the ball 30 times in the mud for 123 yards, a preview of what he would do in the playoffs.

The Pats-Ravens rivalry really started to reach a boil in 2007. The Patriots came into Baltimore at 11-0 and the talk of an unbeaten season was everywhere. Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, and the Ravens were determined to put a stop to all the talk. And they almost did. It was a true heavyweight battle, with each team exchanging hay makers. The score was 10-10 at the half. 17-17 after three. The Ravens held a 24-20 lead with just more than three minutes left to play when Brady led one of his greatest -- and luckiest -- game-winning drives. The Ravens D stopped Brady on a fourth-down play but the officials said one of the Baltimore coaches had called a timeout before the ball had been snapped. Brady got a new life and took advantage of it, connecting with Jabbar Gaffney a few plays later for the winning touchdown. I still pop the tape of that game into the old VCR everyone now and then. It's a classic.

As was the next meeting in 2009. The Patriots prevailed 27-21 in a game of hard hits and cheap shots. It's the game where Belichick tells Raven receiver Derrick Mason to shut the eff up and the game where Terrell Suggs (T-Sizzle. Now that's the nickname of a villain) was called for roughing Brady and whined about the "Brady rule." Once again the loudmouth Ravens left the field steaming and vowing revenge.

They would finally get it a few months later at Gillette in the playoffs. A game I would prefer to forget. Ray Rice burst through the Pats D line for an 83-yard touchdown before I even had my first drink and it just got worse from there. Ravens 33, Patriots 14. It was a drubbing. A beating. A whuppin'. The Pats had it coming and the Ravens were anxious to deliver it.

The two met again the following October with a lot of experts questioning if the Pats had what it took to ever beat the Ravens again. They did. It was another close game and Gosty won it with a clutch field goal with more than a minute to play for the 23-20 final. The same score for the last game the two teams played ... the AFC title game at Gillette last January that the Ravens still can't believe they lost. Another classic battle that came down to a kicker, this time Baltimore's Billy Cundiff and this time the kick was missed.

Other than the drubbing in the playoffs the Patriots have always come out on top. How can it be a rivalry if one team keeps winning? It's like the Sox and the Yankees. But even a one-sided rivalry can be a heated one. The hatred and resentment of the team that always loses (and their fans) keeps building and building. The Patriots (as they were for the Colts) are the Ravens' white whale. Tonight gives them another chance to lunge a harpoon into the chest of Brady and Belichick.

Dan Shaughnessy says Pats' fans don't hate the Ravens, once again reminding us why sportswriters should never speak for the fans. He says Baltimore is too likable a city. Which I found out when I went to a Ravens game last year. But it's not New England vs. Baltimore. It's Patriots vs. Ravens. It's never a regional thing. New York's a great city. I love going there. It's not that the Yankees are from New York. It's that they win all the time. You think people hate the Celts because they are from Boston? Not really. It's that they are sick of them. Just like football fans across the country are sick of Brady and the Pats. They could be the Minnesota Patriots and people would hate them.

Dan says there's no hate like there is for the Jets. Well, maybe he should have sat in the stands of the AFC title game last January to see how Pats' fans feel about the Ravens. Or maybe he should come sit with me and my nephew Pete on my couch tonight.

The Ravens? They are a great team with great players. But they talk too much. They whine a lot. We hate 'em. They're the new villain. And they are perfect for the role.

Week 2 rewind

Oh, ye of little faith. A look on ESPNBoston.com shows that almost all the "experts" are picking the Ravens Sunday night. Most of the picks have it a very close game but everyone -- except Mike Ditka and Matt Light -- gives the nod to Baltimore. Well, it's in Baltimore so that makes sense. Home field advantage is often the deciding factor in these games. The Ravens are the smart bet.

It's the comments accompanying these picks that are somewhat baffling.

Tedy Bruschi says the Pats "will be better after Thanksgiving than they are now." Mike Reiss goes with the Ravens due to "some of the shaky play from the the Patriots' offense in recent weeks." The Pats are "a work in progress" says Jackie "Welkergate" MacMullen.

So the Pats lose one game and suddenly the defending AFC champs are a work in progress? I don't remember any of the experts saying that after they dominated Tennessee on the road in Week 1. Quite the opposite. But apparently one bad game -- which the Pats could have won anyway -- turns a Super Bowl contender into a "shaky" team. Hmmm.

Sunday night will show if there's any merit to this line of thinking. I look back at the AFC title game last January and still see a game that the Pats dominated. I know, it came down to a Billy Cundiff missed field goal to decide it. But what it really came down to was Tom Brady -- in his words -- sucking. I don't expect that to happen again. As I don't expect Zoltan to have a punt blocked or the team to commit foolish penalties. Belichick's Pats have a history of responding to the challenge. Go ahead and bet on the Ravens. Just don't bet too much.

The Pats first-ever home opening loss at Gillette had more than the usual share of bad. But it also had a decent share of good. No. Really. It did.

GOOD

• The defense. For the second week in a row the Pats held the other team below 300 yards. The rushing defense may be the best in the league. It will be really tested by Ray Rice and the Ravens Sunday night. The pass defense continues to look good. Kevin Kolb only threw for 140 yards. Wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald -- a man most experts predicted would get eight or nine catches for 110 yards or so -- was held to just one catch and four yards. Actually, that should be put under the "great" category, not just "good."
• The comeback. Brady and the offense struggled most of the day. Losing Hernandez early on didn't help. Nor did Brady seeing pass rushers where there didn't seem to be any. Even the best have those days. But in the fourth quarter the offense went no huddle and Brady, Welker, Lloyd, and Gronk marched down the field for the touchdown that brought them within two points.
• Ridley wasn't as dominant as he was in Week 1 running the ball but that was more a case of not getting the ball as much. Which was unfortunate since the game was close almost the whole way. He finished with a solid 71 yards on 18 carries.
• Stephen Gostkowski. (Yes, he will show up in the "bad" category too). Gosty hit field goals of 46, 34, 51, and 53! yards to keep the Pats in the game. He was having a sensational day ...

BAD

• ... till he missed that 42-yarder with the game on the line. And he missed it badly. Gosty hasn't had to make too many game winners during his career but missing one in Week 2 isn't the same as missing one in Week 15 or in the playoffs. I hope he gets a chance to redeem himself soon.
• Aaron Hernandez's high/middle/low ankle sprain is one of those bad breaks that you hope a team can avoid. But if it's going to happen it's better to happen in Week 2 than in the AFC title game. You really have to feel bad for Hernandez because he was poised to have a Pro Bowl year. He still might if the ankle heels fast enough.
• The missed two pointer. Where's Kevin Faulk when you need him? The Pats are the best in the league at the two-point conversion. The play they ran was a good one, getting Gronk in one-on-one coverage on the right corner of the end zone. But Brady threw the ball a little too far ahead and the coverage was very tight. Next time go back to the direct snap to Woody,
• Penalties. The Pats had eight penalties for 60 yards. The two penalties on the last drive by Gronk were the worst and cost the Pats what would have been the winning TD. The Pats played with an unusual lack of discipline all day.

Take away the penalties and miscues and the Pats would have won this game by 10 points. Which -- if Brady doesn't suck this time -- is what I think the Pats will beat the Ravens by Sunday night.

Reinforcements

Deion is back! Well that's the one good thing I can say about Aaron Hernandez's injury. The Pats re-signed veteran wide receiver Deion Branch to give the offense some help. So I guess I can re-purpose my ode to Deion another time. Maybe in two weeks. Maybe in two days. You never know with Belichick.

The Pats also reportedly signed veteran tight end Kellen Winslow Jr. to try and fill the second tight end spot. Winslow Jr. is no Aaron Hernandez. He's no Kellen Winslow Sr. either. But he is a soldier.

Reading material

The NFL really is the best drama on television. I love "Game of Thrones" but it can't match the NFL for week-after-week drama. The first two episodes of the 2012 NFL season have been outstanding television. The triumphant (somewhat) return of King Manning. The adventures of the ragtag army of replacement officials. The collapse of the House of Brees. The romance of Lord Gruden and young Prince Luck. Who will sit on the throne at the end? Will it be the House of Belichick? All those in the lands of the north hope so.

There were lots of story lines from Week 2 that made for great reading on the Internets. Here are a few of the best...

• It didn't take long for Jay Cutler and the new looks Bears to resemble Jay Cutler and the old look Bears. Chicago looked like a contender with a Week 1 41-21 drubbing of the Colts. But against a real football team -- division rival Green Bay -- they just looked bad. The best part -- for non Bears fans -- was eternal brat Cutler getting in his lineman's face for missing a couple of blocks. Problem was Cutler was busy throwing four awful interceptions to kill his team's chances. Classic Cutler.
• The Saints continue to pay the price of Bountygate. A much higher price than the 10k they put on Brett Favre's head. With head coach Sean Payton suspended and the team on its second interim coach, the Saints have given up 922 yards and 75 points in two games. But the Saints have never been a defensive beast. It's the offense that has brought them to the top of the NFL recently. That offense is out of sync despite putting up 32 and 27 points in the first two games. Most of those points came in late-game comeback desperation mode. Not a recipe for success for Drew Brees.
• The patience with the NFL and its use of replacement refs is wearing thin. Ray Lewis and just about every coach in the league has expressed frustration with the league risking the safety of the players and the integrity of the game. The league's response to some really bad officiating in Week 2 was "officiating is never perfect." Funny. I don't remember the NFL ever saying that when the regular officials came under fire for a bad call. As Ray Lewis says, at least with the regular officials you knew what you were going to get. Not any more.
• The Philadelphia Eagles are one of the 2-0 teams in the league. But what an ugly 2-0 it is. Mad Dog Mike Vick and his team had to stage a last-minute comeback to beat the very bad Cleveland Browns 17-16. But the game was in Cleveland and any road win in the NFL is a good road win. Sunday the Eagles faced a much tougher test at home in the form of the Baltimore Ravens and once again the Eagles snatched victory from defeat at the last second. Vick has made a season-full of mistakes in just two weeks but the team is unbeaten. Sometimes that's all that matters.
• The New York Football Jets -- along with the rest of the AFC East -- sit at 1-1 after getting soundly beaten by the Steelers. Skinny Rex and his team were feeling pretty good after beating up on the Bills in their opener but they are feeling a little less cocky -- if that's possible -- after their offense sputtered all over Heinz field. How long till the "Teee-bow! Teee-bow!" chants begin? The Jets offense, Wildcat or not, is not expected to be among the best in the league. The defense is. Against Pittsburgh it wasn't.
• The Giants-Bucs game was a wild one right up to the very last play. Little Manning -- again -- led the G-Men to a comeback victory. This time scoring 25 points in the fourth quarter as Eli threw for a ridiculous 510 yards. (Too bad Brady doesn't get Tampa this year.) But it was the traditional kneel-down play that got all the attention. Manning went to take a knee with a few seconds left and the game over, but Bucs rookie coach Greg Schiano told his defensive guys to keep playing hard and go after Manning and try to get the ball. Go after him they did, charging through the offensive line and knocking the guys in blue jerseys all over the place. After the game -- in what is becoming a new, fun tradition in the league (see Harbaugh/Schwartz 2011) -- Giants coach Tom Coughlin got in Schiano's face for breaking the kneel-down code.  There are loud opinions on both sides of this one. I have to agree with Coughlin. The kneel-down is an accepted part of the game. You lost. Go get a beer.
• Finally, there is the Wes Welker saga. Why isn't he playing as much? Is he hurt? Is Belichick mad at him for wanting a big contract? Is Brady mad at him for "dropping" the pass in the Super Bowl? Is Gisele behind it all? What is going on? It's a good question. My guess is Welker is a little banged up. He himself said missing some of preseason has him a little behind. And clearly Gronk and Hernandez are now the focus of the offense ... at least it was till Hernandez got hurt. The Globe's Greg Bedard has a good piece on it. He says there's no doubt that Welker was being phased out of the offense. Of course he didn't ask Belichick about that. None of the reporters did. He says why bother because Belichick wouldn't have answered. That's one way to excuse not doing your job. He also says maybe the Pats are trying to reduce Welker's numbers either as punishment for not accepting the offer the team made in the offseason or are hoping if he gets less catches he won't get a big contract offer as a free agent next year. Then Bedard says how low that would be for the team to do that and says "So let's not even go there." Problem is, he just went there. And it's ridiculous. The Globe's Dan Shaughnessy takes a break from doing what he does best -- ripping the Sox when they suck -- to chime in on the game he knows not all that well. He says if the Pats lose next week at Baltimore -- certainly a possibility -- they will be below .500. Well, he's good at math.

That's just one week. I can't wait for episode three.

Mistaken identity

WEEK 2
The Patriots had not lost a home opener since Gillette Stadium opened its gates 10 years ago. I had not missed a home opener in those 10 years. Both streaks are over.

If I didn't have enough good reasons to be glad to be on the Cape this week, being away from the "panic button" talk of the Sports Blabosphere after the 20-18 loss to Arizona is another one. The Pats are 1-1. The Cards are 2-0. Who wants to bet a 12-pack on which team will end up with the better record at the end of Week 17? The Patriots went into Buffalo last season in Week 3 and lost. The Pats were 2-1. The Bills were a surprising 3-0. The Pats finished 13-3. The Bills finished 6-10. Leave the panic button alone.

The difference in last year's early-season loss to Buffalo, other than one was on the road and the other was at Gillette, was that in the Buffalo game the Patriots looked unstoppable as they took a 21-0 lead only to make a slew of mistakes and allow the Bills to come back and steal the game. Yesterday the Pats looked anything but unstoppable. They were unfocused, undisciplined, unprepared, and unlucky.

But -- just as in the Buffalo game -- it was the slew of mistakes that cost the Pats the game. My guess is that they won't make that many mistakes in the next 14 games combined. The same thing happened in 2010 when the 6-1 Patriots went into Cleveland to face the 2-5 Browns. The Pats turned the ball over three times including a fumbled kickoff. It was an ugly game and it ended in a 34-14 beating. The Pats didn't lose a game the rest of the season to finish 14-2. The Browns? They finished 5-11.

"Stunning" seems to be the word of choice to describe the loss. When you have an interception on your first offensive play, lose one of your key offensive players to injury, have a punt blocked at your own goal line, commit eight mostly stupid penalties, drop several key passes, and have your quarterback turtle one too many times it's not stunning at all ... it's inevitable. Any time all those things happen in one game you are very likely going to lose.

There were a lot of things not to like about the loss. One look at Belichick's face at the post-game press conference told you that. That's the way it is with losses. Especially at home. Of course, the biggest thing not to like is the loss of Aaron Hernandez (especially since he's the best player on my fantasy team the Rozzie Rats). If it's a high ankle sprain he could miss a month or more. That really hurts. But the Pats offense will be fine. With Brady, Gronk, Lloyd, Welker (yes, he's still on the team), Woody, and Ridley it's still one of the best in the game.

As is the defense. And that's one of the things you can like after a disappointing loss. Go to NFL.com and click on the Team Stats page. What team is ranked second in total defense? That would be your young, fast, and nasty New England Patriots D. Who's seventh against the pass? Also the Pats. Fifth against the run? Yup, the Pats D. Granted, the Titans and Cards are not the most dangerous offenses in the league. But the Pats have pretty much shut them both down. Something they couldn't do against anyone the last few years. The Cards scored three points after the Brady pick and a touchdown after the bocked punt. Take away those two scores and the defense only allowed 10 points after allowing just 13 in Week 1. When the Pats lost those ugly games against the Browns (2010) and the Bills (2011) the defense allowed more than 400 yards in offense. In the loss to the Cards they allowed just 245.

It was that defense the ripped the ball from the Cardinals with just seconds to play and gave the Pats the chance to steal the game.

So I'm actually feeling very positive about the Pats today. They just have to eliminate the mistakes they made. And if there's one thing the Pats have excelled at under Belichick, it's eliminating mistakes.

Next up: An AFC title game rematch Sunday night in Baltimore. That will be a great game. Make no mistake about it.

A banner night

TALES FROM THE TAILGATE
Pats 30, Steelers 14 (9/9/'02): I won't be going to the home opener today at Gillette. I haven't missed a homer opener in the nearly 25 years I've been a season-ticket holder for the Patriots. But a late-summer Cape vacation with Devra (and a baby to be named later) calls. And calls loudly.

The opener is always one of the best tailgates of the year. The weather is almost always perfect (see: today). Friends who haven't seen each other since last winter get together and share stories of work, politics, family ... OK, we mostly just talk football and food. Oh, the food. Today's menu (I'm told) features burgers from Noacks in Connecticut that Matt brings up with him from his ESPN job. If you haven't tasted the smoked meats from Noacks you've been missing out. But I digress ... the homer opener is something you look forward to from the moment the schedule comes out in late spring. Many of the home openers are high on the list of great days (or nights) in Foxborough.

But one home opener stands out among the rest. September 9th, 2002. A day I never imagined would come. The Pats were raising a Super Bowl championship banner.

The joy from the moment when Vinatieri's kick went through the uprights in New Orleans was still with everyone as we gathered in the lot in front of our brand new stadium! A Super Bowl title and a new stadium! Were we in Pittsburgh? Dallas? San Francisco? No. We were in New England. After nearly 30 years of rooting for a team sure to break your heart, I was getting ready to watch my team raise a banner as the best in the NFL. In a brand new stadium. It was surreal. And we were like kids on Christmas Eve.

It was 80 degrees with a light breeze on a Monday night in September. The Pats were re-matched against the Steelers, the team that they had upset on the road in the AFC title game to advance to the Super Bowl. Everyone remembers "The Snow Bowl" against the Raiders and, of course, the Super Bowl. The game in between often gets overlooked. The Pats walked into Steel Town and punched them in the face to take the AFC championship. The Steelers still think they were the better team and deserved to win. Of course after Spygate broke players such as Hines Ward said things like "Hey, I knew they were cheating! Where are our championship rings?" On the fingers of the Pats, right where they belong. Spygate or not, the Pats beat the Steelers because of Troy Brown's special teams play (which you don't need illegal videos for) and Steeler QB Kordell Stewart's not-so-special play. Simple as that.

Bitter Steeler players were quoted before the season-opening rematch as saying "There's nothing like knocking off the champs." The champs? That's right. We are the champs!

The parking lot was like Mardi Gras. Fans shot off fireworks. Music blasted. People danced. The food was better and the drink was sweeter. We were the champs. We arrived inside Gillette Stadium and made our way to our new seats... in Section 109 at the 45-yard line. It was official: me, Paul, Bergs, and Shep had died and gone to football heaven. The new stadium was impressive. And this was before KraftWorld, a.k.a. Patriot Place, came to be. There was a big ceremony planned with former players introduced and a highlight film of the team's Super Bowl run on the big screen. Nick Carter sang the National Anthem (OK, not everything was magical). One of the loudest cheers came for the announcement that the new stadium was built with private money and without PSLs, the dreaded personal seat licenses. If I ever meet Bob Kraft in person I know just what to say. "Thanks for not charging me thousands of dollars for the right to pay you thousands of dollars to buy my tickets." He could have gouged the fans (of which he was a long-suffering one) and he didn't. A class act that should never be forgotten no matter how many young starlets he dates.

The players were introduced as one, just like the Super Bowl. Then the lights went out and Mr. Kraft started "You've been waiting 40 years for this" and the roar got louder. U2's "Beautiful Day" played, just like in the Super Bowl, and a spotlight hit the south end zone where the championship banner was unveiled. It was like New Year's in Times Square. Hugging. Cheering. Laughing. Kissing.

The energy from the ceremony carried over to the game. The Steelers scored to tie the game 7-7 in the first quarter and then the Patriots steamrolled them. Scoring the next 23 points. In the second quarter hero Vinatieri walked out to kick a field goal a recieved a long, raucous standing-O. The kick gave the Pats a 10-7 lead and they poured it on from there. Brady and the offense had almost 350 yards for the game and Kordell Stewart reprised his role of mistake-prone QB by throwing three picks. Final score 30-14.

At one point during a TV timeout in the fourth quarter -- with the crowd in full celebration mode -- Queen's "We Are the Champions" blasted out over the new stadium's speakers. The crowd began to sing along ... "Weeee are the cham-pions, my friend. And weeeee'll keep on fighting ..." It was almost a Patriotic moment. Then-President Bush would have gotten teary. A group of Americans singing as one about winning. The crowd continued to sing louder and louder and then, as the commercial break ended and the players lined up for the next play. the music, as it always does, stopped. But the crowd did not. "Weeee are the cham-pions. Weeeeee are the cham-pions ..." 60,000 plus singing a cappella till the final line. "Weeee are the cham-pions! ... of the woooooorld!"

That night we were.

Red jacket day

Drew, Ty, Troy, Tedy, and Kevin. Some day they will all be wearing red jackets.

He goes both ways

Troy Brown becomes the newest member of the Patriots Hall of Fame tomorrow.

I voted for Bill Parcells. Twenty times. I will vote for him next year and the year after that till the Tuna gets to put on the legendary red jacket and walk into the Patriots Hall of Fame in the shadow of the Victoria's Secret at Patriot Place. Without Parcells there is no Patriots Hall of Fame. There is no Victoria's Secret. End of story.

But I knew he wasn't beating Troy Brown. Mr. Patriot. Mr. Two-Way Player. Mr. Biggest Catch in the History of the Team. Mr. Versatile. Mr. Clutch. No way he was beating Troy. I thought Parcells should have gone in before last year's inductee, Drew Bledsoe. That would have been the proper order. In before Drew. In before Troy. And Tedy. And Lawyer. And Willie. And Ty. In before all the players that he drafted and helped to mold. It doesn't matter that he was booking his flight for New York while preparing the Pats to play Favre in the Super Bowl. He started it all.

But Bill Parcells will have to wait.

The parade of fan favorites started last year with Drew and hit full stride with Troy. The Pats' all-time leader in catches got more fan votes than any previous hall inductee. Not a surprise. His record will last till Bruschi's name is on the ballot. Among all the great players that turned the Patriots franchise 180 degrees, Troy Brown is right near the top of the list. The most talented? Hell no. But arguably the most valuable. And, without argument, the most likable. Troy Brown always played the game with a smile on his face. He was one of those rare players who combined intensity with joy. It was easy to see, even from our seats high up in the old stadium.

There wasn't a more comforting feeling as a fan than seeing #80 line up on a third-down play. You think Wes Welker is clutch? Troy Brown should have had the word embroidered on the back of his jersey. From Bledsoe to Brady (Zolak doesn't count), Brown made diving, leaping, one-handed, sliding, you-name-it catches time after time to bail his QB out. He wasn't the biggest receiver. The fastest receiver. Or the strongest. But he was the smartest. That's what separated Troy Brown. He was a football player more than an athlete. That's what separated the Pats from the rest of the league. They just had more players like that than the other team. Every other team.

But only Troy Brown went both ways. Actually, he went three ways. Offense (receiver). Defense (secondary). And special teams (kick returner). And he went all three ways well. He is the only player whose highlight reel includes great catches, huge kick returns, blocked field goals, and interceptions. He was a throwback. Another player with great football smarts for Bill Belichick to get the most out of. Like Mike Vrabel.



Brown's highlight reel includes some of the biggest plays during the team's title run. He had many clutch catches in the snow against the Raiders. The following week he almost single-handedly went into Heinz Field and beat the heavily-favored Steelers, returning a punt for a touchdown and then scooping up a blocked field goal and -- as he was about to be tackled -- pitching the ball to Antwan Harris who took it all the way for a score. The Pats won that AFC title game 24-17. Troy Brown was responsible for 14 of those points.

An even bigger play, lost in the glow of Vinatieri's kick in the Super Dome against the Rams, was the one that turned a little momentum into one of the most historic winning-drives in NFL history. Brady had moved the offense with a few seat-of-the pants plays, but the ball was only at the Pats' 46 with a mere 29 seconds to play. Second down. An incompletion or sack here and the drive may have stalled and a dynasty may have died before it was even born. Instead, Brady dropped back with Brown in the right slot. Brady made a great move to slide forward and to his left a few steps and then fired a bullet to Brown cutting across the field. He snagged the ball at the Rams' 45 and cut down the left sideline inside the 40. A 23-yard gain. Suddenly the Pats were not just in field goal range, they were in good field goal range. And a few moments later they were Super Bowl champs.

There are so many great Troy Brown plays (and one pretty funny commercial). But the one that truly epitomizes Troy Brown the player is a play in 2007 against the Chargers in the playoffs. The Patriots were  scratching to stay in the game on the road against the 14-2 Chargers. Down 21-13 with just over six minutes left in the game, Brady and the Pats faced a 4th-and-5 near midfield. Brady tried to force the ball into coverage and it was intercepted by Marlon McCree. Game over. But McCree, instead of hitting the turf to end the play, tried to run with the ball. Brown, always a step ahead of everyone else (and three ahead of McCree), moved in quickly from behind and stripped the ball away. The Pats recovered the fumble and went on to score the next 11 points, snatching the victory away from a stunned San Diego team. The Chargers -- and especially LaDainian Tomlinson -- were never the same.

That play was rated the worst moment in Charger history by NBC Sports. The worst! That's just how great a play it was. The worst for an entire franchise. The best for Troy Brown.

That red jacket will look good on Mr. Patriot.

Week 1 rewind

The Patriots did something in Week 1 that they haven't done often enough the last few years ... beat a mediocre team soundly.

It was an all-around impressive performance. It's games like the 34-13 victory against Tennessee that make it easier to survive the long haul of the season. You don't want to have to expend every ounce of energy against teams that aren't in your league. You want the last 10 minutes of those games to feature lots of sideline shots of Brady, Wes, Vince, and Gronk laughing and getting ready for the post-game feast.

Each week, at mid-week, I'll highlight the good and the bad of each Pats game (including the tailgate menu for home games). There will be a lot more good than bad. A lot more.

GOOD

• Brandon Lloyd restored dignity to the number 85. After Brady missed a wide open Lloyd on what would have and should have been a great touchdown bomb in the first quarter, me and my nephew Pete were yelling for the trainer to get him a new jersey with a number that has never been worn by Ocho. But we calmed down after Brady and Lloyd connected for a nice 27-yard play early in the second quarter. Lloyd finished with five catches, one of the outstanding variety, for 69 yards. He wasn't the star of the offense -- that honor goes to the two-headed tight end again -- but he already has half as many catches as the last guy to wear #85 and should get better and better as he and Brady build chemistry. 
• Stevan Ridley did a pretty good impersonation of BenJarvus. Especially in the "no fumbles" department. Like Bennie, he often turned what looked like a loss or no gain into two or three yards. Those are key yards for an offense. And like Bennie, he bulled his way into the end zone when called upon. Ridley won't get 20-plus carries every week (although I wish he would), but he showed that when he does he can do something with those carries.
• Just as it's important to be able to run the ball, it's equally important to be able to stop the run. And stop the run the Pats did. Titans quarterback Jake Locker lead the team in rushing with 11 yards. Chris Johnson, who is healthy and will probably shred many defenses this year, could only gain four yards all game. Four. It didn't seem like he had that many. Big Vince and his not-so-little buddy Kyle Love were two immovable objects and Ninko and rookie Chander Jones were moving everywhere. The Globe's Greg Bedard goes into great detail about the D line's performance as only he can do. (Does he not have a life?)
• The offensive line looked much better than at any time during the ugly preseason. Logan Mankins looks healthy. A Pro Bowl year out of him changes everything.  The line did a solid job in pass protection -- Brady was only sacked once and was pretty comfortable most of the time -- and was even better in the running game.
• The youth movement on defense may have entered its final stage. It looks like the transition from the Bruschi-Rodney-Willie-Vrable defense is just about complete. Big Vince is the torch bearer from the past to the present, but he now has a young, talented, fast, and nasty group to pass that torch too. Jones and D'onta Hightower look ready to play key roles. With Mayo, Spikes, Chung, Tavon Wilson, Arrington, McCourty, Cunningham, and Deaderick, the Pats D is looking very deep. The addition of veteran Steve Gregory gives the Pats two solid safeties. 

BAD

• Brady got his nose smushed which could cost him a GQ cover or two.
• Gronk muffed a touchdown spike.
• The Titans only TD came on a broken play when Locker avoided the rush and found Nate Washington for a 29-yard score. The secondary went to sleep on the play.
• Offensive lineman Dan Connolly left the game with a head injury and didn't practice Wednesday. Word is he should be fine for the home opener against Arizona. 

If you're handing out a team grade for this game it is a solid A. Next up: At home vs. the 1-0 Arizona Cardinals.

Ground rules

WEEK 1
The two biggest questions I had about the 2012 Patriots coming into yesterday's opener was how would their running game do and how would their defense do against a healthy Chris Johnson and the Titans' running game.

The answers: Stevan Ridley... 125 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries. Chris Johnson... 4 yards and no touchdowns on 11 carries. Ridley will face stouter defenses and Wilfork and company will face fiercer running attacks, but the early signs are good.

As are the early signs from the Patriots rookie class. First-found picks Chandler Jones and D'onta Hightower teamed up for a forced fumble and recovery for a touchdown that broke open a close game in the second quarter. Jones and third-year man Jermaine Cunningham each had a sack and were around the quarterback all day. In the defensive backfield, rookie Tavon Wilson had an interception. Many times last year the secondary would give up more than 300 yards passing to a mediocre quarterback like Jake Locker and allow the other team to stick around. Not yesterday. Locker finished with just 229 yards (backup Matt Hasselbeck added 43) and the Titans were never in the game in the second half. That's the way a good defense should play against a mediocre offense.

The Pats offense put up close to 400 well-balanced yards. It was a clinic. Second-year man Ridley established himself as the lead back with his solid (fumble free) play. With the running game moving the chains and eating the clock, Brady didn't have to be his usual spectacular self. He just had to be efficient and he was, finishing with 236 yards, two touchdowns, no picks, and one smashed nose. The patched-up offensive line only allowed that one nose-busting sack and moved the line of scrimmage in the running game. Mankins, who was heaving in the huddle at one point, had a great game.

Brandon Lloyd put the shine back on the number 85 with a solid game and, of course, the two most important offensive players in the NFL, Gronk and Hernandez, each had a touchdown catch.

The only real miscue of the day was Gronk dropping the ball when he went to give it the Gronk spike after his great catch in the corner of the end zone. He'll have a chance to improve on that in the home opener this Sunday against Arizona. He may have quite a few chances.

Enjoying the ride

The Pats may not win the Super Bowl again this year. A lot of things have to break right for a team just to make it to the first Sunday in February. And, as we all know, anything can happen on that day. ("Did he just catch that ball with his effin head?") Watching your team win the Super Bowl is a heck of lot better than watching them lose. Of course. But either way, it's a great ride.

Pats fans are lucky. Barring a shocking rash of injuries or an even more shocking great year by the Jets, the Pats will finish at the top of the AFC East and provide a lot of Sunday fun along the way. Since Drew went down with a busted body on that September day in 2001, Belichick, Brady, and the rest of the Pats have gone 150-47 including playoffs. 150-47. One of the most dominant stretches in NFL history. In the days I was sitting on the cold, aluminum benches at Foxboro Stadium watching the guys in red, white, and blue stumble and bumble their way to loss after excruciating loss, I never imagined it would ever be this fun to be a Pats fan.

Get ready for more fun and more highlights.

One game at a time

The Cowboys and Giants meet tonight to kick off the 2012 NFL season. Even if the Sox weren't staging their own version of "The Poseidon Adventure," I would be psyched for this weekend. I don't paint my face (Not that there's anything wrong with that. No, of course not.) or throw things when the team I root for loses, but from September through (hopefully) the first Sunday in February the Pats and the NFL are a big part of life. It is the best entertainment I get all year. Even better than "Game of Thrones."

The Pats start another run at Lombardi #4. They have come soooooo close a few times. And as long as Brady and Belichick are in place, Pats fans will continue to get the best show around. We know it will end someday, so we enjoy every second of it.

Predicting at the end of summer what a team's record will at the start of winter is mostly folly. You may know what the team you root for is capable of, but it's impossible to know how good or bad other teams will be. Who thought the Niners would be so good last year? And who knows what Buffalo or Indy can do this year? But that's the fun of predicting. Everyone is right before the games begin.

Two years ago I thought the Pats would go 13-3. (Yes, optimistic after they got smoked by the Ravens in the playoffs, but if you can't be optimistic in September then when can you be?) The Pats went 14-2. Before last season I thought the Pats would go 12-4. They went 13-3. I see a trend.

WEEK 1 @ Tennessee
The Pats start on the road again. It worked out well last year with a big win in Miami. This time they take on the Titans, a team they haven't seen in a few years. Jeff Fisher was the coach back then. He's gone. As is a lot of the Titans' swagger. Tennessee finished 9-7 last year even with a very subpar performance by RB Chris Johnson, so they are no easy win. Quarterback Jake Locker starts his second season as the starter. If he rolls up more than 300 yards against the Pats D then I'll be worried. It's an interesting first week matchup. Still, it's an opener the Pats should win.

WEEK 2 vs. Arizona
Not the most exciting of home openers. But it will be the first tailgate and that's all that matters. And it will be my first chance to yell "Nice throw to Welker, Tommy!" And it will be the first home win of the year. The Cardinals are worse than the Titans. Much worse. Again, it's a team the Pats aren't very familiar with. But, again, that should not be a problem. Pats should start off 2-0. Hope it's a perfect September day.

WEEK 3 @ Baltimore
Now the fun begins. A rematch of the AFC title game that ended with the Ravens kicker missing an easy game-tying field goal. Ray Lewis and co. are still pissed. This will be a big early test for both teams. A Pats road win against Baltimore would be huge. And would give them the advantage come playoff tie-breaker time. (Yes, Week 3 is not to early to think about that stuff). T Sizzle won't be on the field terrorizing Brady. The Ravens D is old. Gronk and Hernandez are not. I like the Pats here.

WEEK 4 @ Buffalo
The Pats blew a 21-0 lead against the Bills on the road in Week 3 last year. The Bills fell apart after that while the Pats went to the Super Bowl. Buffalo landed the big free agent in Mario Williams and will enter the season with one of the best pass rushes in the game. Bill Belichick's team very rarely -- as in never -- has letdowns after big wins. But I think that happens here. Bills hand the Pats their first loss for the second year in a row.

WEEK 5 vs. Denver
I had hoped the renewal of the Manning-Brady battle would be on a beautiful early October night. Perfect for football and tailgating. Close. It's at 4 in the afternoon on Oct. 7th. That works. Tailgating begins at 9 a.m. There's no way of knowing how well Manning will be playing this early into the season. Probably pretty well. But not well enough to beat the Pats at home in the game of the week. Manning might be ready for that but the rest of the Broncos showed in the playoffs last year that they aren't. Pats get to 4-1.

WEEK 6 @ Seattle
The fourth road game in the first six weeks takes New England on their only voyage out west. Waiting for them will be old pumped-and-jacked friend Pete Carroll. Why do I think Belichick will run the score up in this one? The Pats are one of the few teams that have had some success going out to Seattle to play. This year should be no different against a weak version of the Seahawks. Something like Pats 52, Seahawks 13.

WEEK 7 vs. NY Jets
Let me start practicing... Teee-bow! Teeee-bow! Teeeeee-bow!. The beauty of it is the Foxborough fans can start chanting that while Sanchez is in the game to annoy him and then turn it into a mock cheer when Tebow comes in and throws a pick. Thanks Rex. Tebow aside, this will be a great game. Belichick and the Pats reasserted themselves against Ryan and his gang last year. Ryan will be doing a lot of talking before the game. Not after. Pats go to 6-1.

WEEK 8 @ St. Louis
I love the NFC West. Cardinals and Seahawks and Rams. Oh my. Another place the Patriots play well even when the Rams are good. This time they aren't. But they aren't playing it in St. Louis. For the second time in a few years the Pats are headed to London to play a real game. I don't think the NFL is really serious about this expanding the game to Europe nonsense. If they did they would have the Pats-Broncos game in London. Pats vs. Rams. A game only a Pats fan could love. Blowout. 7-1.

WEEK 9 Bye
As if the schedule wasn't setup perfectly enough, the Pats get the ideal middle-of-the-season week off. They'll get a chance to recover from their trip overseas and get a chance to prepare for a second half schedule that will be a little tougher than the first eight. And  I'll get a chance to gather my layers for five cold-weather home games down the stretch. Unless this global warming thing continues.

WEEK 10 vs. Buffalo
An extra week to prepare didn't work out last year when the Pats lost their next two games after the bye. A rarity in all ways during the Belichick years. The coach will be able to drive that point home and the Pats will be ready to go. Avenging their only loss up to this point, Brady, Welker, Lloyd, Gronk, and Hernandez take it up and down the field. 8-1.

WEEK 11 vs. Indianapolis
After the bye the Pats get back-to-back home games. Against Buffalo and Indy. How nice. The Colts will be in the middle of their first year with Andrew Luck as the new Peyton Manning. The Colts weren't too pretty in Manning's first year and that team had more talent around him. I don't care how much Luck the Colts have, this game should be an easy one. Yes, Pats get to 9-1.

WEEK 12 @ NY Jets
I will be staking out my seat in my sister's basement up in Maine around 7 p.m. with pie and beer in hand. I want a good view of this one. It doesn't matter if the Pats come into this Thanksgiving night game at 9-1 or 6-4, this will be another epic chapter in the rivalry. (They won't be 6-4). The Jets will either be battling with the Pats for the division lead or battling among themselves. Either way, I still (barely) give Skinny Rex enough credit to think that his team will show up to play and win at home. If they can't, then that will be the best beer and pie I've ever had. Pats slip to 9-2.

WEEK 13 @ Miami
The Pats will get a trip to South Beach to take their mind off of a tough loss. It should be just what the schedule-maker ordered. I don't know who will be playing QB for the Dolphins. I'm not even sure if they have a coach at this point. The Pats get Miami twice in the final month of the season and that's a good thing. Pats win another division game and get to 10-2.

WEEK 14 vs. Houston
The Texans are a tough team to predict for 2012. They won their first division title last year and should have taken out the Ravens in the playoffs but were on their third- or fourth-string QB and lost a tough one. Then they lost Mario Williams to the Bills. So are they still a top contender? I think so. The D is still very good and if Schaub can get back to form the offense is too. Good enough I think to sneak into Gillette and steal a game. If that happens the Pats will have lost two of their last three and the Blabosphere will be all lathered up. Pats 10-3.

WEEK 15 vs. San Francisco
The Pats will give all those lathered up blabbers and bloggers a big "calm down" the following Sunday night in a prime-time matchup with the 49ers. Another great home game. Another great December tailgate in the Enchanted Forest. And another great home win. Like last year, I expect the Pats D -- if healthy -- to begin to really figure it out right about now. Old friend Randy Moss will be among the Niners testing them. I think the Pats will pass this test with a big win. 11-3.

WEEK 16 @ Jacksonville
12-3. The Jags won five games last year and Maurice Jones-Drew had a great season. And stayed healthy. That may be asking too much from him again. The Jags should be stumbling around the NFC South basement with the Colts while the Pats should be locking up the AFC East penthouse yet again. Pats go to 12-3 and clinch another division title. Hats and T-shirts.

WEEK 17 vs. Miami
For the second year in a row the schedule makers send Miami up to Foxborough as the New Year approaches. They really don't like the Dolphins. But the Pats do. There will be lots of talk about what players should rest before the playoffs. I can tell you who will rest... no one. Belichick will start them all and the Pats will wrap up another top seed at 13-3.

Optimism. It's so easy in September. Actually, with Brady and Belichick it's pretty easy in October, November, December, and January too.

He's gggggggreat!

I was listening to a radio interview with Jets coach Rex Ryan the other day. He was talking about how he thinks this is the best Jets team he's had. Listening to him roar I started thinking about who he reminded me of. Something sounded so familiar. Then Ryan said "I know I'm a great coach. It's hard for me to look at myself as not being successful. I don't even see (being fired) as a possibility."

Then it hit me. Rex Ryan is Tony the Tiger. Always walking around roaring "They're ggggreat!" Only in Rex's case it's "I'm gggggreat!" Ryan's gut may haven't gotten a lot smaller (good for him). I can't call him Mt. Ryan anymore (bad for me). He's now Skinny Rex. His gut is smaller. But his mouth sure isn't.

The verdict is still very much out in whether Ryan is a great coach or not. The jury is still very much out on if he is a good motivator. A great defensive coach. Yes. But a great coach? The thing about great coaches is that they don't have to tell you they are. The great coaches in my football watching lifetime -- Noll, Shula, Landry, Cowher, Johnson, Walsh, Belichick -- never talked about themselves. Only about their team. And they didn't even talk about their team all that much. Ryan has done more talking in just more than three years in Gotham than all those hall of fame coaches combined. Great coach? No. Great mouth? Oh ya.

Ryan isn't worried about his job? Hmmmm. His Jets have gone 9-7, 10-6 and last year disintegrated into an ugly 8-8 and out of the playoffs. Most coaches would realize they are on the hot seat. If the Jets miss the playoffs again, all the bravado and boasting in the world won't be able to save Skinny Rex. Four years is a long time in the NFL without results. Too long.

Ryan said during the offseason that he was going to talk less. He just can't help himself. And whether you are a Jets fan or not, that's what makes him so fun.

Keep talking Rex. Keep talking.

You're ggggggreat!

Taking inventory

The Patriots' 53-man roster looks very different than I thought it would when training camp started.

Belichick stockpiled wide receivers in the offseason, at one point having more wide receivers than we have scallops wrapped in bacon at our tailgates. When the final cuts were made on Friday there were only four left standing. Four. Welker, new #1 receiver Brandon Lloyd, and special teams guys Julian Edelman and Matthew Slater. Gone were veterans Anthony Gonzalez, Jabar Gaffney, and Deion Branch (sob) along with youngsters Jesse Holley and Jeremy Ebert. And yet Belichick, in his now almost insane obsession with tight ends, kept four on the roster. Gronk and Hernandez (of course) along with Daniel Fells and Vinsanthe Shiancoe. I know the tight end position is all the rage, but what team has as many tight ends on their roster as wideouts? That would be the New England Patriots.

There's still a week of roster moves left before the season starts. Will offensive lineman -- and Pro Bowler -- Brian Waters come up from Texas to join the team? Will Branch come back after the season starts? Will Belichick add a few more tight ends? The Pats have 53-men on their roster... but you can bet that it won't be the 53 men they start the season with.

OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK: Tom Brady, Ryan Mallett

When you have Tom Brady does it really matter who the back-up is or how many you have? Not so much. If Brady goes down it will take an entire team effort to pick up the pieces like it did in 2008. It won't just be on the shoulders of the back-up. Second-year QB Mallett is that back-up. With the somewhat unexpected cutting of Brian Hoyer, Mallett is also the only back-up. I like the move. If something happens to #12 it will be fun to see what the kid can do. I'll tell you one thing, at 6-foot-6 he won't have many passes batted down.

RUNNING BACK: Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen, Danny Woodhead, Brandon Bolden

I'm not sure what the Pats are going to get from this group. Ridley and Vereen head into their second year with not much more than potential on their resumes. I would have cut Vereen to keep Branch. He's often hurt and in preseason spent a lot of his time running for no gain. But he showed flashes late last year so maybe he can stay on the field and make some plays. Ridley starts as the guy and that's a lot of pressure. The Pats may be a passing team but they have to have some kind of running game. Ridley will decide how much they have. Woody is Woody. And Bolden had a very solid preseason, often looking like the dearly-departed BenJarvus.

TIGHT END: Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Daniel Fells, Vinsanthe Shiancoe

I'm very sure what the Pats are going to get from this group. Touchdowns spikes. Lots of touchdown spikes.  Gronk and Hernandez are the dynamic duo that is reshaping offenses in the NFL. The fact that the Pats only have four wideouts means more playing time for Hernandez. He could have the monster season this year. Fells is a solid third tight end but doesn't provide the blocking you like to see from that spot. Same with the veteran Shiancoe. The best thing about him is his name.

WIDE RECEIVER: Brandon Lloyd, Wes Welker, Julian Edelman, Matthew Slater

I still can't believe Branch did not make the team. He looked great at the training camp session I went to. He still has that zip and he was the guy keeping everyone loose. He had some nice catches in preseason. He and Brady still clicked. Word is his locker is still intact and that he might be brought back after Week 1 at a discount. The key guy among the four receivers left is Lloyd. We all know what Welker can do. Last year it was 122 catches. 122! But what will Lloyd bring to the offense? He and Brady reportedly spent a lot of time on their own working on building chemistry. If it's Randy Moss chemistry then the Pats will be tough to stop. If it's Ocho chemistry, then not so much. Edelman and Slater are great special teams guys but haven't shown much in the receiving game so far.

OFFENSIVE LINE: Logan Mankins, Nate Solder, Dan Connolly, Sebastian Vollmer, Ryan Wendell, Nick McDonald, Donald Thomas, Marcus Cannon.

Patriots fans are about to be reminded that the most important part of any NFL offense is its offensive line. Without a good line you can't run, you can't pass, you can't keep your hall of fame quarterback alive. You can't do anything. The Pats haven't had to worry about that for years. But Matt Light has retired. Dan Koppen wasn't able to comeback from injury, and Brian Waters is still way down south. That leaves Logan Mankins as the key. He hasn't really played up to the Pro Bowl level he's capable of for a few years. He has to be the Wilfork of the offense this year and bring it week after week after week. If he does, then that makes life that much easier for the rest of the line. Connolly took over for Koppen at center last year and was solid. He will stay there if Waters comes back. If Waters doesn't, then Connolly will slide over to guard and Wendell will snap the ball. Solder and Vollmer are first and second-round picks that are hopefully going to be mainstays of the line for years. Hopefully starting this year. I still think Cannon could surprise and have a big impact this year.

DEFENSE

DEFENSIVE LINE: Vince Wilfork, Kyle Love, Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, Jermaine Cunningham, Brandon Deaderick, Ron Brace, Justin Francis, Marcus Forston, Trevor Scott, Jake Bequette.

The Pats intend to stick with the 4-3 defense more often than not. That's a good idea because it gets rookie Chandler Jones on the field more often than not. Jones looked NFL ready in preseason. At 6-5, he and Ninko form a very formidable edge on the D line. And Big Vince and Kyle Love form an even more formidable wall in the middle. The Pats were solid against the run in the preseason. Guys like Cunningham (who took out Vick with one hit in the preseason), Deaderick, Scott, and Brace are all solid contributors in different ways. The D line, long a concern of the Pats, may be a strength this year.

LINEBACKER: Jerod Mayo, Brandon Spikes, D'onta Hightower, Mike Rivera, Tracy White.

Mayo, Spikes, and Hightower could one day be the best three-man linebacker group in the league. Actually, that day could be this year if all three can stay on the field and gel as a unit. Mayo is the rock of the defense. He is the leader and the play caller. When he is healthy and playing at the top of his game there are few better. He's a tackling machine. Spikes is a play maker, as he showed in the AFC title game last year. He's got long arms and a long stride, reminiscent of Willie McGinnest. And he's crazy like Willie. Rookie Hightower is a monster at 6-3, 270 pounds. I'm looking forward to him and Tim Tebow meeting. With the loss of Dane Fletcher for the season, the Pats are a little thin after the starting three. If I was Belichick I might be signing linebackers instead of tight ends.

DEFENSIVE BACK: Devin McCourty, Kyle Arrington, Patrick Chung, Steve Gregory, Ras-I-Dowling, Tavon Wilson, Nate Ebner, Sterling Moore, Alfonzo Dennard, Marquice Cole.

It's funny how a position that was such a big concern last year has been barely discussed this preseason. I guess all the attention has moved to the offensive line and wideout positions. But another reason might be because the cornerback and safety positions seem much improved. Chung's shoulder is a big concern. He may be the most important player on the team. When he is on the field the defense looks less lost. Veteran Gregory looks like a good addition in the middle. At corner, McCourty looks to put his sophomore slump (slump? more like sophomore stunk) behind him and Arrington looks to continue his good fortune of having footballs fall into his lap. If either one of them slip, Dowling will get his chance to step up. Gone are the Sergio Browns and James Ihedigbos, replaced by youngsters Wilson, Ebner, and Dennard. Rugby player Ebner could end up having a big impact. As could the entire secondary.

SPECIAL TEAMS: Stephen Gostkowski, Zoltan Mesko

The Pats have two of the best young kickers in the league. Actually, Gostkowski is not so young anymore. He is heading into his seventh year as the replacement to legend Vinatieri. Other than the clutch Super Bowl winning kicks, he has been as good or better than #4. Zoltan looked great in the preseason. He's entering his third season and is poised to have a Pro Bowl year.

I miss Deion and I'd like to see a few more linebackers and maybe one less tight end, but the Pats roster once again looks loaded. And it's the youngest Patriots team Belichick has coached. Young, big, and fast.