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Championship Sunday. I'm really looking forward to going to the game (bring on the cold) but there's something to be said about getting together with a group and watching the NFC title game in the afternoon as a warm-up to the Pats-Ravens AFC rematch. Now that's a great day of football as only the NFL and flat-screen TVs can bring it to you.

Last weekend's Divisional Round was one of the most entertaining weekends of playoff football in a long, long time. Baltimore's double-OT back-and-forth upset of the Broncos and Atlanta's last-second field goal victory against Seattle were instant classics. But even the Pats' rather easy win over Houston and San Fran's similarly decisive win over Green Bay were tight contests for a good part of the game and then became displays by great offensive players.

I went 3-1 in carefully (i.e. no clue)  picking games in the first weekend and 1-3 last weekend. 4-4. That's why I don't bet on the NFL anymore. But if I were to bet this weekend ....

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP

Ravens (12-6) at Patriots (13-4): Have I mentioned this is a rematch? Last year's game came down to a last-second missed kick but I've watched the game several times and my take on it is the Patriots controlled that game most of the way. If Brady didn't -- to use his words -- "suck" the Pats win that game by double-digits. Watch the film. If Brady doesn't turn the ball over the Ravens never get a chance to make a comeback. This year's Patriots team (even minus Gronk) is better than last year's. The Patriots are fast and young. The Ravens are fast and older. The Ravens' D used to exert its will against opponents. It's not that kind of defense anymore. The Ravens used to hold teams to about 12 points a game. Now it's unusual when they hold a team to just 20. The Patriots offense is superior to the Baltimore defense. But the Baltimore offense is superior to the New England defense. So it's a wash. The clear edges come in the home field and in the coaching categories. Patriots 31, Ravens 27

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP

49ers (12-4-1) at Falcons (14-3): This may be the most important home-field advantage in the history of home-field advantages. If this game were being played in San Francisco against the confident and powerful Niners the Falcons wouldn't stand a chance. But it's in Atlanta. In a dome. On a fast track. That gives the Falcons a chance. But not a great chance. Niners' quarterback Colin Kaepernick looks unstoppable right now. He might get stopped, but it won't be by the Atlanta defense. San Fran's offense is peaking at the right time. The San Fran D has been peaking for about three years now. Altanta quarterback Matt Ryan has lots of great weapons in Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez. But he's going to have a hard time finding them with the nasty Niner D in his face. And then there's the attitude difference. Atlanta raced out to an early lead against Seattle last week and then seemed to ease up thinking the game was over. In the playoffs against a team that had come back from down 14 the week before. Meanwhile, the Niners were in a dogfight against the Packers and then blew the game open in the fourth. There was no let up by the Niners.  49ers 34, Falcons 20

Round two

OK, that was not a very entertaining Wild Card weekend. Sure, the Bengals-Texans game was close most of the way and Seattle's comeback against the Skins had some drama but the four games were not that exciting. Unless you are a Packers, Texans, Ravens, or Seahawks fan. Then they were great games. I thought they would be more competitive but each game had a team that clearly wasn't ready for the playoffs. That should change this weekend. All four matchups should be bruising battles. Even the Patriots rematch with Houston. Despite what most in the Blabosphere are saying, this will not be an easy game for the Pats. The Texans will leave their letterman jackets behind this time. They will be ready.

AFC

Ravens (11-6) at Broncos (13-3): The Ray Lewis retirement party begins immediately after this game. I just don't see Peyton Manning losing at home after putting together the season he has in Denver. I know it's supposed to be cold and the elder Manning never wins in the cold. But you're talking about the fifth best passing attack in the league against a very average defense. Andrew Luck is no Peyton Manning. And the Colts don't have wide receivers like Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas. Add to that a healthy Willis McGahee and I don't see the Ravens D holding Manning to under 23 points. And it's very unlikely that Joe Flacco can score more than 20 points against the Denver defense. All the focus is on Manning and Lewis but the Bronco defense was third in the league against the pass and third in the league against the run. The Denver D is very very good. The Broncos are no 13-3 fluke. And they are at home. They will be hosting the AFC title game. Broncos 27, Ravens 16.

Texans (13-4) at Patriots (12-4): No one is giving Houston a chance to win this one. Including me. But that doesn't mean it will be an easy game or that the Texans can't win. They can. I just don't think they will. But I didn't think the Jets could come into Gillette in the Divisional Round two years ago and win. They did. And this Texans team is much better than that Jets team. Much better. I watched Alabama destroy unbeaten Notre Dame in the college championship game and thought if Brady and the Patriots can play at the level that the Tide played at for three more games then they will finally get that fourth Lombardi. The Texans will play a better game than they did in the Monday night thrashing a month ago. They have to play better. But better won't be good enough if the Pats play at their peak. And that is where the questions come in. Can Talib be the shutdown corner I've heard tell of? Can the secondary not give up the big plays? Can Ridley hold on to the ball? Can rookies Jones and Hightower rise up under the playoff pressure? Can Brady stop throwing the bad pick in a playoff game? Can Gosty make a clutch playoff kick? I think the answers to most of those questions, at least for this week, are yes. Patriots 34, Texans 20.


NFC

Packers (12-5) at 49ers (11-4-1): The classic battle of the wide-open offense against the smash-mouth defense. I'm really looking forward to this game. The numbers favor the Niners in almost every category. They are the fourth ranked D in the league while the Pack is in the middle of the pack. The Niners also have one of the best rushing attacks in the game. If Frank Gore dominates the Green Bay D and keeps Aaron Rodgers off the field then the Pack is in trouble. But that's where San Fran quarterback Colin Kaepernick comes in. Coach Jim Harbaugh with his rather large ego wants to show that he made the right choice by benching Alex Smith in favor of his guy. So he will have Kaepernick throwing. Since Kaepernick took over the starting job Gore has not had a 100-yard rushing game. He had three before that. I think the Niners throw the ball more than they should and that opens the door for Rodgers and his array of receiving weapons. The Packers are a veteran team that will not be afraid to win on the road. Packers 27, Niners 23.

 

Seahawks (12-5) at Falcons (13-3): The Seahawks are the surprise team in the NFL's elite eight. And they just might be the most dangerous. If Pete Carroll wins a Super Bowl ... What was I saying? Right. Seahawks vs. the Falcons. Seattle is a team that plays to its strengths. They have the best runner in the game right now, Marshawn Lynch. And they run him right down their opponent's throat. And then they have rookie QB Russell Wilson make some plays. On defense they are just nasty everywhere. They play like the old Miami Hurricanes defense. Like criminals. They are intimidating. And if there's one team in the NFL the past few years that can be intimidated it's Matt Ryan's Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons have the sixth best passing attack in the league with Roddy White, Julio Jones, and future hall of famer Tony Gonzalez catching Ryan's passes. But Seattle has the best pass defense in the game. What else do the Falcons have? They are 29th in the league in rushing and 23rd against the pass and 21st against the run. That's not good. The Falcons will be one and done again. Seahawks 30, Falcons 21.

Week 15 rewind

I usually look at the "good" of each week's game first and then the "bad." With the Pats' wild and disappointing loss the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday night it has to be the other way around because there was just way too much bad before there was any good.

31-3 (BAD)

• Where to begin? How about the worst half of football a Tom Brady-led offense has had since that playoff game against the Ravens in '09. Punt. Punt. Interception. Punt. Fumble. Field goal. Punt. Fumble. Interception. You are going to fall behind any team in the league playing like that. Against a team like the Niners, you are going to fall behind 31-3. Play like that in the playoffs and you are out.
• So who was to blame? Let's start with Stevan Ridley. He's a more talented runner than BenJarvus, but if you can't hold on to the ball it doesn't matter how great a runner you are. Ever heard of Chuck Muncie? When I was younger and the Chargers were a great team that me and my brothers rooted against, we always knew they would lose because of "the Muncie Factor." You just knew he would fumble at the worst possible time. Kind of like Brett Favre and his game-killing picks. You just knew one was coming. We better not be talking about "the Ridley Factor" when the playoffs are done.
• Speaking of turnovers... Brady had another one of those where he just flings the ball deep down the field hoping his receiver can jump and get it but either way overthrows or underthrows it so the defensive back has an easy pick. I know. Criticizing Brady for interceptions is ridiculous since he takes care of the ball as well as any QB I've seen. But those plays -- like the one to Gronk in the AFC title game last year -- have to stop.
• The defense continues to lead the universe in big plays allowed. That too will have to stop before playoff time rolls around. Randy Moss (Randy Moss!) caught a 24-yard touchdown. San Fran QB Colin Kaepernick hit Delanie Walker for a 34 yard TD. Kaepernick and Michael Crabtree connected on 27-yard touchdown and they connected again on the game-winning 38-yarder. I keep hearing the Pats secondary is improving. I have my doubts. It may have been injuries to Talib and Dennard. I have my doubts.
• Another thing that will have to improve for the playoffs... kick coverage. The Pats special teams got caught napping in the first quarter on a 4th-and-10 when the Niners faked the punt and were able to get an easy first down. But a much bigger sin came late in the game, after the Pats had rallied to tie the score. Gosty kicked to the goal line (also not good) and La Michael James took the ball up the left sideline. He shouldn't have made it past the 20. But he did. Way past the 20 all the way to the Pats 38-yard line. Sloppy technique and tackling turned the momentum right back in San Fran's favor for good. It's the kind of play that could get a special teams coach fired.

31-31 (GOOD)

• OK. Enough of that. There aren't a lot of other teams (or any) that can come back on the San Fran defense from 28 points down. Not only did Brady and the offense come back, they came back in a flash. A 73-yard drive for a touchdown in four minutes. 86 yards in just under four minutes. 70 yards in a minute. And a ridiculous 91-yard drive in three minutes to tie the game. And all without Gronk. The Patriots offense made a statement in the second half that caught the Niners' attention.
• The defense that has given up way too many big plays has made even more of them. Which more often than not adds up to victories. Devin McCourty had another big pick to stop a scoring drive cold.  The D kept the Pats in the game in the first half while the offense sputtered and then it shut the Niners down while the offense staged its comeback. 
• Danny Woodhead. He has taken the role of the underrated role player. The new Kevin Faulk. Woody is almost unstoppable on the pass out of the backfield and the draw play. He's as tough as they come and rock solid with the rock. In short, he's one of my favorite players. Oh, and Rex Ryan cut him. Ha.
• Brandon Lloyd. Has this guy lived up to expectations or what? Lloyd, against one of the toughest defenses in the league, caught 10 passes for 190 yards. He didn't have a touchdown again but that's OK. There are lots of guys scoring touchdowns. But he's the only one making huge toe-tapping sideline catches for first downs. Brady has to love this guy. I know I do.
• The linebacker group of Jerod Mayo, Brandon Spikes, and rookie D'onta Hightower are becoming a force. The key has been (knock on Woodhead) that Mayo and Spikes are still relatively healthy. Mayo had 12 tackles against the tough Niner run game. Hightower had eight. Spikes had six and they were all bruising. Combined with Big Vince, Kyle Love, Ninko, and Chandler Jones up front gives the Pats one of the best front seven in the game.
• Composure. Down 31-3 to the Niners, a lot of teams would have folded or crumbled. Not a Bill Belichick team. They never give up when they are down and never let up when they are ahead. That's what makes them contenders every year. Although the 2012 Patriots are one of the youngest in the league, they are battle tested.

And there will be some big battles ahead. Battles that they will win if they don't turn the ball over four times. That's always the key.

A good reminder

WEEK 15
49ers 41, Patriots 34 (12/16/'12): After a week of the experts putting the Patriots in New Orleans for Super Bowl XLVII, the San Francisco 49ers reminded everyone that the NFL is a week-to-week deal. Following their beat-down of the Texans on Monday night, the Patriots were at the top of almost everyone's power rankings and the Dans of the world were booking flights for the Big Easy. Well, in the NFL nothing is easy.

That was obvious with about ten minutes left to play in the third quarter and the scoreboard reading Niners 31, Patriots 3. Not only were the Patriots getting beaten badly at home, they were getting beaten badly at home in the cold rain. In December. A very rare sight around these parts. The Niners were using a bruising defense and an opportunistic offense to knock the defending AFC champs around their own building. And the Pats were making it easier for them by piling mistake on top of mistake on top of mistake. In the cold rain,

It was ugly. Randy Moss was catching touchdown passes. Sophomores Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen were coughing balls up. Brady was getting sacked and harassed. Welker and Hernandez were getting beat up on every play. Here's how the Pat's first nine drives ended... punt, punt, interception, punt, fumble, field goal, punt, fumble, interception. Unstoppable? Hardly. It was about as bad as the Pats' offense with Brady has ever looked. But -- as we always do -- most people in the crowd felt that if Brady could just put a drive together that they could quickly get back in the game.

That's exactly what the offense did. In fact, the offense put together four straight touchdown drives to change a 31-3 game against the best defense in the league into a 31-31 battle with about eight minutes left to play. There are few offenses in the league that could have done that. Unfortunately ... the Pats had a few more mistakes left in them. Moments after Woody slammed the ball to the ground after scoring the tying touchdown, the Pats' special teams took a little nap and allowed kick returner LaMichael James a ridiculous 62-yard run back all the way to Pats' 38-yard line. One play later, Colin Kaepernick hit Michael Crabtree on a quick pass to the sideline and cornerback Kyle Arrington whiffed -- again -- on the tackle and Crabtree took it in for an easy touchdown. A great comeback was gone. As was the Pats' chance to control their shot at a first-round bye.

That's how it goes in the NFL. One week a team looks unbeatable. The next week it can't get out of its own way. That's what makes each week so important ... and so much fun. And that's what will make the playoffs even more fun when they start next month. Both the Patriots and the Niners will be there. And they will both have to play better than they did last night in the cold December rain.

Going fourth

NFL coaches like to look at the 16-game season in four quarters. Now that each team has played four games, time has expired on the first quarter. So who is looking good at the quarter pole? And who is fading fast? My rankings go to 12 (not 11) because that's how many teams make the playoffs. There are some surprise teams not on the list like the Saints, Steelers, Lions, and Jets. Well, maybe not the Jets. And there are some surprise teams on the list like Arizona, Washington, and Denver.

It's only four games, but with a few exceptions these teams will be your playoff competitors come January. That's how important a good start is in the NFL.

1. San Francisco 49ers (3-1): They aren't one of the three remaining unbeaten teams, but they are the only team that could probably beat all three. The Niners stumbled against the Vikings but are still the most balanced team in the league. The San Fran D is a beast and the offense -- with running back Frank Gore -- is good enough to get the job done. The Niners are -- at the moment -- the best team in the NFC

2. Houston Texans (4-0): The Texans are -- at the moment -- the best team in the AFC. Houston will be sitting atop most power rankings after four weeks, And rightfully so. I just think the Niners D is better. And the Niners have more experience. But the Texans have a better quarterback in Matt Schaub and a very good runner in Arian Foster. And they haven't missed Mario Williams all that much, have they?

3. Atlanta Falcons (4-0): The Falcons are a little lucky to still be unbeaten. A Cam Newton fumble gave Atlanta new life and Matt Ryan and the offense were more than glad to take advantage of it with a great game-winning drive. Matty "Ice" looks like he has moved into the elite category. The Falcons are scoring 31 points a game and allowing 19. That adds up to 4-0.

4. Baltimore Ravens (3-1): The Ravens are off to a 3-1 start without Terrell Suggs, one of their leaders and one of the most ferocious pass rushers in the game. They were outplayed by the Patriots for a good chunk of their game and had to scrape and claw to beat the lowly Browns but player for player the Ravens are as good as anyone in the AFC. Torrey Smith is now one of the most dangerous weapons in the game. And Joe Flacco is off to a great start so far. We'll see if that lasts.

5. New England Patriots (2-2): The Pats would be ahead of the Ravens if they had held on to that 9-point lead. But they didn't. The Pats -- even without Aaron Hernandez -- have the best offense in the league. Brady has been at his best. But they haven't been able to win the close games and are sitting at 2-2. So what are the Pats doing in the top 5 instead of the 4-0 Cardinals? Well, this is a Patriots blog. And, honestly, do you really think if the two teams played again this weekend the Patriots wouldn't win? Really?

6. Green Bay Packers (2-2): My preseason #1 pick should be 3-1. Everyone knows that except Pete Carroll. The Packers paid the ultimate price for the fake refs ... a win. And they almost lost to the Saints in a wild one. The Packers are like the Patriots. They can score almost at will and their defense -- which should be better than it is -- gives up way too many big plays. But Aaron Rodgers -- like Brady -- has that look in his eye that he will not be denied. And they are coached by one of the classiest guys walking the sidelines.

7. Arizona Cardinals (4-0): Records don't mean everything. The Cardinals are unbeaten but they were lucky to beat the Pats (yes, the Cards D played great) and were really lucky to beat Miami. Sure, no one even had the Cadinals in their top 20 heading into the season that I saw so #7 is pretty good. The defense is young and fast but I think the offense is playing over its head. Every year a team starts off 4-0 or 3-1 and ends up missing the playoffs. The Cards are that team this year.

8. New York Giants (2-2): If you saw the Giants get beat by Philly you might not think they were top 10 worthy. But they are. The best pass rush. A two-time Super Bowl champ at QB. A hall of fame coach. A tough as nails run game. Experience all over the field. The Giants may only win 10 or 11 games but if that's enough to get in the playoffs then look out.

9. Chicago Bears (3-1): The Bears are nothing if not entertaining. Kind of like an episode of the "Kardashians." There's a lot of bickering and falling down, but then they dress up for prime time and kick the crap out of Dallas. Jay Cutler (playing the role of Kim) goes from bumping his lineman in frustration to tossing bombs all over Jerry Jones's coliseum. Brandon Marshall makes them a much different team offensively. When Forte gets back they will be even tougher. Of course, they still have Lovie as their coach.

10. Denver Broncos (2-2): There's only one reason the Broncos are on this list, bumping off 3-1 San Diego and Cincy. Peyton Manning. He's looked pretty darn good for an old guy who missed a year because his neck had to be fused back together. Very good actually. He has a young, talented group of receivers, a good running game, and a pretty good defense. That should get them to the top of the AFC West even with John Fox as coach.

11. Philadelphia Eagles (3-1): The Dream Team is back! Sort of. Michael Vick and his cast of stars have won three games while racking up an amazing number of turnovers in those games. It wasn't till they beat the Giants that I took them seriously. Till then they were stealing games from the likes of the Browns. But they are a talented team with a lot of experience and if they can just stop making mistakes (a big if) then they might finally make the dream come true for Philly fans.

12. Washington Redskins (2-2): RG3. No. It's not the new Nike sneaker (yet). It's the Skins saviour at QB. Robert Griffin III is this year's phenom rookie quarterback. Maybe even better than last year's model, Cam Newton. Griffin is fun to watch and the Skins are getting better on defense so they make the third NFC East team on the list. Yes. It's the toughest division by far.

Dishonorable mention: The 0-4 New Orleans Saints. Now we know what things would have looked like around here if Belichick had been suspended for a year over Spygate. Whew. The Saints continue to score tons of points thanks to Drew Brees. But they can't stop anyone and they look lost when the games get tight. Sean Peyton is clearly missed. As Belichick would have been. Whew.

Shooting blanks

It's a rare thing in the NFL these days when a team gets shut out. Especially at home.

San Francisco 34, NY Jets 0. How you feeling about "the best team I've ever had" now, Rex? Not too good.

The "Tee-bow! Tee-bow!" chant should start before next Monday night's clash with the unbeaten Texans even begins. The Jets may have the same 2-2 record as the Patriots but they are in big trouble. Mark Sanchez completed just 13 passes for 103 yards with zero touchdowns (of course, since they didn't score) and one pick. The Niners have a great defense but those are ugly numbers.

I kept waiting for Tebow to come in and run some Wildcat plays but the highest paid backup QB in the league did nothing. The Niners backup -- Colin Kaepernick -- came in and showed Ryan, Sparano, and the Jets how the Wildcat is done. Kaepernick -- no, he didn't sink the winning putt for Europe in the Ryder Cup -- ran the Wildcat option in for a touchdown. He finished with 50 yards rushing from the QB spot. Tebow? He had two rushes for zero yards.

Zero. That was a big number for the Jets today.

Final four

Championship weekend. The Patriots are back in it. All is -- temporarily -- right with the football world.

The title games always have potential to go down in NFL history. This year's games really have that potential. In the AFC it's the #1 (Pats) vs. #2 (Ravens). A classic offense against defense matchup. In the NFC it's #4 (Giants) vs. #2 (Niners). The Saints and the Packers -- the two teams I thought would be playing -- and their explosive offenses are gone. Left standing are two defensive-centered teams. It should be old-school football at its best.

The Globe's Chris Gasper says the Pats are left with three pretty easy teams standing between them and their fourth Lombardi. "This playoff field is as soft as a pair of Brady's UGG boots." Soft? The Ravens, Niners, and Giants? Hmmm. The Ravens were clearly the biggest threat to the Pats in the AFC all season. That's why they are the #2 seed. They are anything but soft. And here they come. And on the other side, either the Niners or Giants would be a huge challenge. Especially the battle-tested Giants. No elite QBs left? Tell that to Eli.

They say defenses win championships. If that's the case the Pats don't stand a chance against any of the three other teams in the final four. I just don't think that really is the case anymore. Just ask the Colts, Saints, and Packers ... all offensive-minded champions in the past few years.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Baltimore (13-4) at New England (14-3): A win Sunday at Gillette -- now matter how ugly -- will be one of the biggest in the Belichick-Brady era. Why? Because the Ravens pose a challenge on the level of the Colts and the Steelers in '03 and '04. The Patriots haven't won a playoff game of this level of difficulty in many years. They've won some big games -- last week's playoff blowout for instance -- but they haven't won a playoff game against a great team in many years. It feels like it's time. But that's not enough against the team that is as loud as its uniforms.

The Ravens are a very good defense. They were a great defense, but age is showing. I've seen many Ravens games during the past few years when the veteran D looked gassed in the fourth quarter, literally gasping for air. They were gasping last week against Houston till TJ Yates resuscitated them with a few very bad throws. Can the Ravens D slow down Brady, Gronk, Welker and the gang? Lots of talk has been made about how the Pats haven't played many winning teams this season. Well, the vaunted Baltimore D has only faced two top 10 offenses this year. Two. How did they do? They shut down San Fran but got smoked by Phillip Rivers and the Chargers. Two years ago the Ravens D caused havoc all over the Gillette field. The Pats didn't have Welker, Gronk, Hernandez, or Branch that day. If the line can keep Suggs off of Brady then things should be different this time. That's a big if.

Then there is the Pats defense. Oh, the Pats defense. They held the league's best rushing attack in check last week and didn't give up much in the air either. There were no late garbage-time drives allowed. No bad penalties. Not too many missed tackles. All good signs. They have enough playmakers (Wilfork, Anderson, Mayo, Spikes, Chung) to get turnovers, something they did very well again this year. Even McCourty is looking better now that he's playing some safety. The Ravens offense doesn't offer much more of a challenge than the Tebow attack of Denver. It's an offense the Pats D should be able to hold below 30 points. That should be good enough.

The Pats looked locked and loaded against the Broncos. But for many of the Broncos it was their first look at the big stage of an NFL road playoff game. They were not ready. The Ravens will be ready. It should make for a great battle. The game will come down to the same two factors evenly-matched playoff games always come down to: protecting the ball and tackling. The basics. The Pats have not taken care of the basics in the playoffs the last two years. This time they will.

PICK: Patriots 27, Ravens 17

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
New York (11-7) at San Francisco (14-3): Yes, yes. It feels like '07 all over again. Little Manning making improbable throws and his receivers making even more improbable catches. (A Hail Mary touchdown to end the half in Green Bay?) Old man Coughlin standing there with his face freezing off. The Giants pass rush destroying everything in its path. Even though the Giants finished the regular season at an unimpressive 9-7, they are better all around than that title team. But I don't think they make it to the Super Bowl this time. Why? Because Brett Favre won't be on the other side of the field to hand the G-Men the game with his patented stupid interception.

The red-hot, upstart Giants are the story right now. But it's the Niners who have been quietly winning games all year. While the NFC spotlight shined on the defending champs and their run at a 16-0 season, or the brash Lions and their nasty D, or the revived Saints and their record-setting offense, Jim Harbaugh's Niners have been on a workman-like march towards the Super Bowl. Workman-like. Just like their rookie coach who will be the unanimous coach of the year. The Niners don't do anything flashy. They pound Frank Gore on offense and sprinkle in enough Alex Smith passes. Tight end Vernon Davis has returned to stud status. It's your basic "here we come, try to stop us" approach. On defense the Niners are a beast. They were first against the run, fourth against the pass, and held opponents to just more than 14 points per game. They feature LB Patrick Willis and the Smith brothers (Justin and Aldon. They're not really brothers). The Niners forced five turnovers last week against New Orleans. They will need to do that again.

Speaking of turnovers, the Giants D forced four last week against Green Bay. They bring the fearsome foursome of Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck, Jason Pierre-Paul, and Dave Tollefson. They are all about the pass rush. They have been since '07. The key battle will be the Niners offensive line vs. the Giants defensive line. If San Fran can't hold 'em back it's going to be a long day for Mr. Gore and Mr. Smith. A very long day.

And if the Niners have trouble scoring that will be trouble because the Giants offense has been a surprise this season. Little Manning started the year saying he should be considered an elite quarterback ... eliciting a lot of snickering. Then he went out and proved that he was right. Receivers Cruz, Nicks, and Manningham give little Manning as good a set of weapons as there are in the league. Add to that bruisers Jacobs and Bradshaw and the Giants can flash you or smash you. Whatever works.

I watched the replay of the Niners-Saints game and the hitting was brutal. It was great playoff football. The hitting in this one should go to 11. I like the Niners in a game like that.

PICK: Niners 24, Giants 21

Four on the floor

The 16-game NFL season is broken down into quarters, just like each game. The league has come to the end of the first quarter of the 2011 season. There are definitely some surprises so far. The defending champs are 4-0. No surprise there. The other undefeated team? The Lions. They have exceeded even the highest expectations -- so far.

There have been some changes among the rankings for best team since the start of the season. Here are the top 12 after four games. Why 12? That's how many teams make the playoffs.

1. Green Bay Packers (4-0): Guess the Pack wasn't too happy with my preseason rankings. OK. I stand corrected. The defending champs are the best team in the league. They were kind of lucky to win the opener against the Saints. Since then Aaron Rodgers and his offense has been on a tear. Their offense is not as dynamic as New England's. But their D is much better. They are still the team to beat.

2. New England Patriots (3-1): The loss of Mayo is huge. He led the league in tackles last year and was starting to make more of the game-changing plays. Hopefully -- with the bye week -- he will only miss a few games. The defense is still a work in progress. The offense is a work of art. Brady looks in control on every drive -- even the ones that end badly. I can't wait to see if the Jets D can slow them down. I'm thinking no.

3. Baltimore Ravens (3-1): Ray Lewis and the men in black have looked dominant in wins over the Steelers and the Jets. But they looked very beatable in a loss to Tennessee. I think the one that dominated is the Ravens team we will see most of the time. Ed Reed and Ray Lewis will see too it. If Flacco can step up to the next level of QB then Baltimore could be at the top of this list come Week 17. (I don't know what it is... but Ray Lewis is starting to grow on me).

4. Detroit Lions (4-0): The Lions destroyed the Pats in preseason. If the Pats and Lions played this weekend who would win? I lean towards Detroit just because of their pass rush. The best in the game. But then I see the way Romo and Big D pushed the Lions around in the first half and I think what could Brady and Co. do. I'm not sure who would win, but it would be a hell of a game. Detroit has fallen behind big in its last two games only to pull out come-from-behind wins. That can't last.

5. Houston Texans (3-1): You can just see the difference in the Texans. Just the knowledge that -- ding-dong -- the Colts are dead seems to have made them better. They sure look more confident. Matt Schaub is maturing and the Texans have a great pass rush. It's the one thing all the teams in the top 5 have. Except the Pats. Houston has gotten off to fast starts before only to bow to the Colts. This time teams will be bowing to them.

6. New Orleans Saints (3-1): The 2009 champs are a lot like the Patriots. Great offense. Shaky defense. But they are also a couple of fluky plays away from beating the Pack and being undefeated. Now that they aren't the team with the target on their backs, Brees and the Saints can relax and just play. Replacing Reggie Bush with Darren Sproles was brilliant. When this is your sixth best team, you have an entertaining league.

7. Washington Redskins (3-1): Is it Mike Shanahan? Rex Grossman? Uh uh. It's no Phat Albert. And no Donovan McNabb. Addition by subtraction. The Redskins at the top of the NFC East and the Eagles at the bottom? It's only four weeks but only Baltimore has allowed less points than Washington. The offense is making just enough plays to win. And they have an extremely easy schedule outside their division games.

8. San Diego Chargers (3-1): San Diego has gotten off to so many bad starts in the past several years that it felt like a rule that they start of 1-4. Now that Norv has his team sitting at 3-1 they only have to avoid a late-season collapse not to win the division. It's theirs. Then Norv gets to the playoffs. That's a different story as we know.

9. New York Jets (2-2): So much for my "they deserve to start the season ranked #1" statement. They didn't and now they aren't. The Jets have the ego to match Mt. Ryan's gut. It's not helping much. If it wasn't for a Romo meltdown the Jets would be sitting at 1-3 and the Foot Doctor wouldn't be cracking wise at his press conferences. "We're just the guys for the job," Big Rex declared after his team got spanked by the Ravens. The job of getting their march to the Super Bowl back on track starts in Gillette. Good luck.

10. Tennessee Titans (3-1): Matt Hasselbeck? Really? You just never know. If it wasn't for the Titans' win over Baltimore I wouldn't have them ranked. But beat Baltimore they did. And handily. They lost WR Kenny Britt for the season. A big loss. But Chris Johnson has yet to get rolling. When that happens the Titans might actually get better. Especially if Hasselbeck continues his Kurt Warner impersonation.

11. San Francisco 49ers (3-1): The Harbaugh brothers are 6-1. John has been doing well in Baltimore for a few years now. Former QB Jim looks like he's bringing the same focused intensity to the Niners. And it's working so far. It helps that the three other teams in the NFC West are three of the league's worst. And it helps to have a runner like Frank Gore.

12. Buffalo Bills (3-1): It was either the Bills or the Giants here. I'm just not an Eli believer. I don't think the Giants make the playoffs. I don't think the Bills will make it either. They had a chance to go 4-0 and blew a lead against a mediocre Cincy team. That's not a good sign. And their D is really bad. But they are fun to watch. I can't wait till they come to Gillette on New Year's Day.

Dishonorable mention: Philadephia Eagles. The Dream Team '11. They are 1-3 and blew a 23-3 lead at home against the Niners. With mistake after mistake after mistake. The warm and fuzzy Philly fans are getting a little agitated. On the bright side, Vick has led my fantasy football team to a respectable 2-2 start. Oh wait, that's Wes Welker who has done that.

At the quarter pole

The Pats and the rest of the NFL (except for the bye teams of course) have made it four weeks into the season -- one quarter of the way through. After four games you can get a sense of which teams are for real and which teams are going to put their fans through some long days of sitting outside in the cold wondering when an NFL team is going to arrive in their town. Certainly things can and will change. I don't know how many times in the past 15 years the Raiders or Vikings started 6-2 and ended up missing the playoffs. I could look it up but why bother. It's a lot. Here are my top 10 rankings as the season heads into October. Love October football.

1. Indianapolis Colts (4-0): I didn't get to go to the Pats-Ravens battle, but I did get to watch the Colts take care of the Seahawks from my hotel room in Oregon (Seattle has 3-13 written all over it even with Jim Mora who I think will turn that team around if given the time). Manning seems very happy that offense coordinator Tom Moore didn't have to retire and doesn't seem to mind a bit that Marvin Harrison kind of did. Could we end the decade with another Pats-Colts playoff clash? That would be fun.

2. New York Giants (4-0): OK, as a Pats fan it hurts to put the Manning boys #1 and #2. But you got to give credit where credit is due and the Giants, like the Colts, are clicking on all cylinders at the quarter pole. A win over KC (like a win over Seattle) is nothing to crow about, but it's the balance on both sides of the ball that is impressive. They are an experienced team that knows how to win almost any kind of game. It doesn't matter how big a stadium Jerry Jones builds, the Giants will whip his Cowboys as long as Wade "Marshmallow Man" Phillips is coaching them.

3. Minnesota Vikings (4-0): Brett Favre. Brett Favre. Brett Favre. Brett Favre. As far as I've read or heard on TV those are the four reasons the Vikings are undefeated. Nothing about Adrian Peterson, or one the best run D's in the league, or a schedule that started off with the Browns and the Lions. It's all about #4. Did you know he is the first player to beat all 32 teams? I thought you did.

4. New England Patriots (3-1): After losing to the Jets, the Pats have handed the Falcons and Ravens their first losses. And have looked a lot like the Pats of '03 and '04 doing it. Nothing spectacular, just good coaching, players stepping up at the right time ... and some luck. Welker's return gives Brady the extra weapon he needed to solve the one real problem they had -- red zone offense. A win over the unbeaten Broncos next week and the Pats move into the top 3 and there should be no arguments about it.

5. New Orleans Saints (4-0): The Saints have been the team of expectations since going to the NFC title game in 2006. Unfulfilled expectations. That may change this year. The offense is just too explosive for a prolonged losing streak. And the Panthers and Bucs look to be easy prey in the NFC South. Scores of 45, 48, 27, and 24 are no fluke. Brees and Co. could challenge the Pats offensive show of '07.

6. Denver Broncos (4-0): Is there anyone -- anyone -- out there who imagined the Broncos would start 4-0 after the offseason/preseason that new coach Josh McDaniels and the team had? Anyone? I didn't think so. But 4-0 they are. But those four wins were a lucky one over Cincy, romps over the lowly Browns and Raiders, and an easy win over an imploding Dallas. They have a real test now.

7. New York Jets (3-1): The euphoria of their win over the Pats has faded just a bit. They certainly had trouble generating much offense against New Orleans. But the Jets D is one of the three best in the league. Scott and Revis are as good a duo on defense as there is. If the addition of Braylon Edwards makes Mark Sanchez and the offense better (and it will) then the Jets are a dangerous team.

8. San Francisco 49ers (3-1): I didn't think Mike Singletary was the right kind of guy to be an NFL head coach. And he might turn out not to be. But as of now his boot camp approach to coaching is working in SF. The Niners are benefiting from the weak NFC West (even the defending NFC champs Arizona is struggling). But the biggest difference in the Niners is toughness. Mike Singletary toughness.

9. Baltimore Ravens (3-1): Showing that the top 10 teams in the NFL are all pretty close, this is a Ravens team that could go on and win the Super Bowl. Especially if the Steelers have a full post-championship meltdown. Not that I'm wishing for that or anything. Ravens problem is they think they can intimidate their way to victory. The Pats showed last week that doesn't work against other good teams. No matter how loud Ray Lewis screams like a fool.

10. Philadelphia Eagles (2-1): The best of the 2-2 and 2-1 teams, which is a pretty large group. Always the bridesmaid, never the bride, the Eagles somehow stay competitive in a very tough division year after year. Andy Reid might not be such a great dad, but he gets the most out of his football team. Health is always an issue with McNabb and Westbrook, and watching their D without Brian Dawkins (my favorite non-Patriot) just doesn't seem right. But the Eagles are a playoff contender yet again.

Dishonorable mention: The Cleveland Browns at #32. What could the Cleveland management have possibly seen in Eric Mangini's comatose reign as coach of the Jets? Why do franchises make decisions like that? You take a shot with Pats D coordinator Romeo Crennel and that turns out to be a mess. So you follow that up by hiring Mangini? With all the other choices out there? Just makes me appreciate the Kraft family a little bit more.