Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Going fourth

NFL coaches like to look at the 16-game season in four quarters. Now that each team has played four games, time has expired on the first quarter. So who is looking good at the quarter pole? And who is fading fast? My rankings go to 12 (not 11) because that's how many teams make the playoffs. There are some surprise teams not on the list like the Saints, Steelers, Lions, and Jets. Well, maybe not the Jets. And there are some surprise teams on the list like Arizona, Washington, and Denver.

It's only four games, but with a few exceptions these teams will be your playoff competitors come January. That's how important a good start is in the NFL.

1. San Francisco 49ers (3-1): They aren't one of the three remaining unbeaten teams, but they are the only team that could probably beat all three. The Niners stumbled against the Vikings but are still the most balanced team in the league. The San Fran D is a beast and the offense -- with running back Frank Gore -- is good enough to get the job done. The Niners are -- at the moment -- the best team in the NFC

2. Houston Texans (4-0): The Texans are -- at the moment -- the best team in the AFC. Houston will be sitting atop most power rankings after four weeks, And rightfully so. I just think the Niners D is better. And the Niners have more experience. But the Texans have a better quarterback in Matt Schaub and a very good runner in Arian Foster. And they haven't missed Mario Williams all that much, have they?

3. Atlanta Falcons (4-0): The Falcons are a little lucky to still be unbeaten. A Cam Newton fumble gave Atlanta new life and Matt Ryan and the offense were more than glad to take advantage of it with a great game-winning drive. Matty "Ice" looks like he has moved into the elite category. The Falcons are scoring 31 points a game and allowing 19. That adds up to 4-0.

4. Baltimore Ravens (3-1): The Ravens are off to a 3-1 start without Terrell Suggs, one of their leaders and one of the most ferocious pass rushers in the game. They were outplayed by the Patriots for a good chunk of their game and had to scrape and claw to beat the lowly Browns but player for player the Ravens are as good as anyone in the AFC. Torrey Smith is now one of the most dangerous weapons in the game. And Joe Flacco is off to a great start so far. We'll see if that lasts.

5. New England Patriots (2-2): The Pats would be ahead of the Ravens if they had held on to that 9-point lead. But they didn't. The Pats -- even without Aaron Hernandez -- have the best offense in the league. Brady has been at his best. But they haven't been able to win the close games and are sitting at 2-2. So what are the Pats doing in the top 5 instead of the 4-0 Cardinals? Well, this is a Patriots blog. And, honestly, do you really think if the two teams played again this weekend the Patriots wouldn't win? Really?

6. Green Bay Packers (2-2): My preseason #1 pick should be 3-1. Everyone knows that except Pete Carroll. The Packers paid the ultimate price for the fake refs ... a win. And they almost lost to the Saints in a wild one. The Packers are like the Patriots. They can score almost at will and their defense -- which should be better than it is -- gives up way too many big plays. But Aaron Rodgers -- like Brady -- has that look in his eye that he will not be denied. And they are coached by one of the classiest guys walking the sidelines.

7. Arizona Cardinals (4-0): Records don't mean everything. The Cardinals are unbeaten but they were lucky to beat the Pats (yes, the Cards D played great) and were really lucky to beat Miami. Sure, no one even had the Cadinals in their top 20 heading into the season that I saw so #7 is pretty good. The defense is young and fast but I think the offense is playing over its head. Every year a team starts off 4-0 or 3-1 and ends up missing the playoffs. The Cards are that team this year.

8. New York Giants (2-2): If you saw the Giants get beat by Philly you might not think they were top 10 worthy. But they are. The best pass rush. A two-time Super Bowl champ at QB. A hall of fame coach. A tough as nails run game. Experience all over the field. The Giants may only win 10 or 11 games but if that's enough to get in the playoffs then look out.

9. Chicago Bears (3-1): The Bears are nothing if not entertaining. Kind of like an episode of the "Kardashians." There's a lot of bickering and falling down, but then they dress up for prime time and kick the crap out of Dallas. Jay Cutler (playing the role of Kim) goes from bumping his lineman in frustration to tossing bombs all over Jerry Jones's coliseum. Brandon Marshall makes them a much different team offensively. When Forte gets back they will be even tougher. Of course, they still have Lovie as their coach.

10. Denver Broncos (2-2): There's only one reason the Broncos are on this list, bumping off 3-1 San Diego and Cincy. Peyton Manning. He's looked pretty darn good for an old guy who missed a year because his neck had to be fused back together. Very good actually. He has a young, talented group of receivers, a good running game, and a pretty good defense. That should get them to the top of the AFC West even with John Fox as coach.

11. Philadelphia Eagles (3-1): The Dream Team is back! Sort of. Michael Vick and his cast of stars have won three games while racking up an amazing number of turnovers in those games. It wasn't till they beat the Giants that I took them seriously. Till then they were stealing games from the likes of the Browns. But they are a talented team with a lot of experience and if they can just stop making mistakes (a big if) then they might finally make the dream come true for Philly fans.

12. Washington Redskins (2-2): RG3. No. It's not the new Nike sneaker (yet). It's the Skins saviour at QB. Robert Griffin III is this year's phenom rookie quarterback. Maybe even better than last year's model, Cam Newton. Griffin is fun to watch and the Skins are getting better on defense so they make the third NFC East team on the list. Yes. It's the toughest division by far.

Dishonorable mention: The 0-4 New Orleans Saints. Now we know what things would have looked like around here if Belichick had been suspended for a year over Spygate. Whew. The Saints continue to score tons of points thanks to Drew Brees. But they can't stop anyone and they look lost when the games get tight. Sean Peyton is clearly missed. As Belichick would have been. Whew.



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