Wild and crazy stuff

If you are a fan of the NFL the next two weekends are as good as it gets. Sure, championship weekend is a lot of fun with the best of the AFC and NFC squaring off and of course Super Bowl Sunday is a national holiday. But Wild Card weekend and the Divisional Round are the two best weekends of football. Two games Saturday. Two games Sunday. Grab a beer, some snacks, and your spot on the couch.

AFC



Cincinnati (10-6) at Houston (12-4): The Texans were the team to beat in the AFC for the first three months of the season. In December, they just turned into a beaten team. They lost three of their last four games and looked bad doing it. They were stomped by playoff team New England, Minnesota, and Indy. Can they pull it together for the playoffs? I think so, but the Bengals will certainly make it difficult for them. The Texans are 8th in the league in rushing yards and seventh in the league against the run. And they are solid in the passing game. All the talk is about Matt Schaub but he is not the key. Schaub will be lucky to get out of this game alive against the Cincy pass rush led by Geno Atkins and Michael Johnson. The key is Arian Foster. He is the best player on the field for either team (slight edge over A.J. Green). If Foster can dominate on the ground and make life easy for Schaub then Houston, with the home field, should be able to get the win. Cincy's best chance rests with Green. He's one of the top playmakers in the game. The Bengals need QB Andy Dalton and Green to have a huge game. That's going to be tough to do with J.J. Watt getting in the way. Texans 27, Bengals 24.






Indianapolis (11-5) at Baltimore (10-6): You couldn't write a script better than this. Colts coach Chuck Pagano, who missed most of the season being treated for leukemia, has returned to the sideline just in time for the playoffs. Playoffs? Playoffs? Yes, last year's worst team won a very surprising eleven games and is in the playoffs. And they are playing the Ravens in Baltimore. The team that Pagano was a defensive coach with for four years. And the Ravens' Ray Lewis, who is very close with Pagano, has announced that he will retire when the Ravens season ends. Talk about your story lines. The Ravens are like the Texans, they have stumbled towards the playoffs, losing four of their last five games. And their defense is no longer elite. Old and injured, but not elite. So the question is can the Colts led by rookie QB Andrew Luck and a young group of players go on the road and beat the veteran, this-might-be-our-last-chance Ravens? I don't think so. Ray Lewis won't be winning a title in his last game, but he won't be losing at home either. Ravens 23, Colts 17.

NFC





Minnesota (10-6) at Green Bay (11-5): This is the one man vs. the team game. Vikings running back Adrian Peterson came back from major knee surgery to post one of the greatest seasons in NFL history, coming up just nine yards short of the single-season record for yards rushing. He is the Vikings. Just like Aaron Rodgers is the Packers. It's a great running game vs. a great passing game. The difference is that Rodgers has a lot more help around him than Peterson. Jennings, Cobb, Jones, Nelson, Finley. And the Green Bay defense is better than the Minnesota defense. And the game is being played at Lambeau Field. The Pack won the title two years ago. They are still a serious contender. Packers 30, Vikings 20.




Seattle (11-5) at Washington (10-6): Two of the most exciting and surprising teams in the league meet up in the first round. It should be a great game. It's a rare thing when two rookie quarterbacks play each other in the playoffs. RG3 and Russell Wilson are rookies in name only. They are the "new breed" of quarterback that can run and throw on a dime. Of course there have always been quarterbacks like that (ever hear of Randall Cunningham) but that's OK. It makes for a good headline. All the attention will be on  the quarterbacks but it's the running backs that will decide the game. The two runners that I had on my fantasy team -- Seattle's beast Marshawn Lynch vs. Washington's beast Alfred Morris -- will set the tone early and often. It's a tough decision as to which back will prevail. I'll go with the home team again. Redskins 21, Seahawks 20.

The year in pictures

When I was a teenager my favorite Sports Illustrated issue was The Year In Pictures. No. Really. It was. Not the swimsuit issue. That was second. The Year In Pictures was the best, especially on olympic years. It was just great to look back at some of the best sporting moments captured in stunning images by the best sports photographers in the world. A picture really is worth a thousand words. Especially that one of Big Vince rumbling down the field after his interception against San Diego. Or the one of Gronk going head-over-heels for a TD against KC. Or Brady diving for a TD in the AFC title game. Or... it really was a great season.

Gronk

Gronk is just one grab with his giant hands away from breaking the NFL record for most TD catches in a season by a tight end.

Gonzalez. Casper. Coates. Ditka. Francis. Clark (Dwight and Dallas). Gates. All legends at the position. None of them ever caught 14 touchdowns in one year. Gronk's about to do it in his second season. I wasn't too excited when the Pats drafted him.

Once again, Belichick was right and I was wrong. Brady to Gronk has become the best combo in the league today. Almost unstoppable. Gronk has even changed my opinion about the tight end position. I never thought anyone could do that.

Four on the floor

The 16-game NFL season is broken down into quarters, just like each game. The league has come to the end of the first quarter of the 2011 season. There are definitely some surprises so far. The defending champs are 4-0. No surprise there. The other undefeated team? The Lions. They have exceeded even the highest expectations -- so far.

There have been some changes among the rankings for best team since the start of the season. Here are the top 12 after four games. Why 12? That's how many teams make the playoffs.

1. Green Bay Packers (4-0): Guess the Pack wasn't too happy with my preseason rankings. OK. I stand corrected. The defending champs are the best team in the league. They were kind of lucky to win the opener against the Saints. Since then Aaron Rodgers and his offense has been on a tear. Their offense is not as dynamic as New England's. But their D is much better. They are still the team to beat.

2. New England Patriots (3-1): The loss of Mayo is huge. He led the league in tackles last year and was starting to make more of the game-changing plays. Hopefully -- with the bye week -- he will only miss a few games. The defense is still a work in progress. The offense is a work of art. Brady looks in control on every drive -- even the ones that end badly. I can't wait to see if the Jets D can slow them down. I'm thinking no.

3. Baltimore Ravens (3-1): Ray Lewis and the men in black have looked dominant in wins over the Steelers and the Jets. But they looked very beatable in a loss to Tennessee. I think the one that dominated is the Ravens team we will see most of the time. Ed Reed and Ray Lewis will see too it. If Flacco can step up to the next level of QB then Baltimore could be at the top of this list come Week 17. (I don't know what it is... but Ray Lewis is starting to grow on me).

4. Detroit Lions (4-0): The Lions destroyed the Pats in preseason. If the Pats and Lions played this weekend who would win? I lean towards Detroit just because of their pass rush. The best in the game. But then I see the way Romo and Big D pushed the Lions around in the first half and I think what could Brady and Co. do. I'm not sure who would win, but it would be a hell of a game. Detroit has fallen behind big in its last two games only to pull out come-from-behind wins. That can't last.

5. Houston Texans (3-1): You can just see the difference in the Texans. Just the knowledge that -- ding-dong -- the Colts are dead seems to have made them better. They sure look more confident. Matt Schaub is maturing and the Texans have a great pass rush. It's the one thing all the teams in the top 5 have. Except the Pats. Houston has gotten off to fast starts before only to bow to the Colts. This time teams will be bowing to them.

6. New Orleans Saints (3-1): The 2009 champs are a lot like the Patriots. Great offense. Shaky defense. But they are also a couple of fluky plays away from beating the Pack and being undefeated. Now that they aren't the team with the target on their backs, Brees and the Saints can relax and just play. Replacing Reggie Bush with Darren Sproles was brilliant. When this is your sixth best team, you have an entertaining league.

7. Washington Redskins (3-1): Is it Mike Shanahan? Rex Grossman? Uh uh. It's no Phat Albert. And no Donovan McNabb. Addition by subtraction. The Redskins at the top of the NFC East and the Eagles at the bottom? It's only four weeks but only Baltimore has allowed less points than Washington. The offense is making just enough plays to win. And they have an extremely easy schedule outside their division games.

8. San Diego Chargers (3-1): San Diego has gotten off to so many bad starts in the past several years that it felt like a rule that they start of 1-4. Now that Norv has his team sitting at 3-1 they only have to avoid a late-season collapse not to win the division. It's theirs. Then Norv gets to the playoffs. That's a different story as we know.

9. New York Jets (2-2): So much for my "they deserve to start the season ranked #1" statement. They didn't and now they aren't. The Jets have the ego to match Mt. Ryan's gut. It's not helping much. If it wasn't for a Romo meltdown the Jets would be sitting at 1-3 and the Foot Doctor wouldn't be cracking wise at his press conferences. "We're just the guys for the job," Big Rex declared after his team got spanked by the Ravens. The job of getting their march to the Super Bowl back on track starts in Gillette. Good luck.

10. Tennessee Titans (3-1): Matt Hasselbeck? Really? You just never know. If it wasn't for the Titans' win over Baltimore I wouldn't have them ranked. But beat Baltimore they did. And handily. They lost WR Kenny Britt for the season. A big loss. But Chris Johnson has yet to get rolling. When that happens the Titans might actually get better. Especially if Hasselbeck continues his Kurt Warner impersonation.

11. San Francisco 49ers (3-1): The Harbaugh brothers are 6-1. John has been doing well in Baltimore for a few years now. Former QB Jim looks like he's bringing the same focused intensity to the Niners. And it's working so far. It helps that the three other teams in the NFC West are three of the league's worst. And it helps to have a runner like Frank Gore.

12. Buffalo Bills (3-1): It was either the Bills or the Giants here. I'm just not an Eli believer. I don't think the Giants make the playoffs. I don't think the Bills will make it either. They had a chance to go 4-0 and blew a lead against a mediocre Cincy team. That's not a good sign. And their D is really bad. But they are fun to watch. I can't wait till they come to Gillette on New Year's Day.

Dishonorable mention: Philadephia Eagles. The Dream Team '11. They are 1-3 and blew a 23-3 lead at home against the Niners. With mistake after mistake after mistake. The warm and fuzzy Philly fans are getting a little agitated. On the bright side, Vick has led my fantasy football team to a respectable 2-2 start. Oh wait, that's Wes Welker who has done that.

Who's No. 1?

Every sports section, magazine, website, and blog starts the NFL season by ranking the 32 teams. It's always a fun read for fans. And a quick way to remember where the QB carousel sent different players and who all the new coaches are. (Mike Munchak has his hands full replacing Jeff Fisher in Tennessee, I can tell you that.) That's what makes the NFL so great. I'm interested in all the teams in the league. I can't say I'm that interested in the Milwaukee Brewers at the start of the baseball season. Or actually ever.

The 2011 season -- the one that almost didn't happen -- promises to be a great show. Offenses should have an advantage early in the season because of the shortened training camp. But there will be as many great 17-14 games during the long season as there will be 34-31 games.

Offenses will run the show, but the teams with the best defenses will be there when the playoffs start. Here are my rankings entering the season. What do I know? Hey, I watch a lot of football.

1. New York Jets: Yes. This is a Pats blog. The Jets at the top? What do I know, right? ... I know the Jets have been in back-to-back AFC title games and almost won them both. I know they have a big coach who is as entertaining to root for -- or against -- as they come and who is a leader.  I know they have a QB who has proven he can make big plays. I know they have a nasty defense. I think the Jets have earned starting the season as the favorite. I just don't think they will end it as the champ. Sorry Rex.

2. New England Patriots: The Jets 1. The Pats 2. Or the Pats 1 and the Jets 2. Doesn't matter. It means when these two meet in the playoffs (and in Week 5) it will be epic ... again. The Jets are the new Colts. The Pats biggest rival. But enough about them. Tom Brady. Bill Belichick. 14-2 with a young defense. The best offense in the league. The Pats may not win 14 games this regular season. Odds are they won't. But they could actually be a better team at the end. When it counts. The additions of Haynesworth, Ellis, and Carter on the D line could be huge -- or just a huge bust. That  will be  key.

3. Green Bay Packers: I have a rule that the defending Super Bowl champ should be ranked #1 to start the next season. Unless a guy like Elway retires or something. They are the best till they lose. But I can't give the 10-6 Packers that much love. They were not that impressive several times last season. But they have big playmakers on both sides of the ball. A top rate QB in Rodgers. An attacking D. And the confidence from raising the Lombardi. They should win more than 10 games this year. That's for sure. But are they the best?

4. Baltimore Ravens: The team that I thought was going to destroy the AFC last year might actually do it this year. If they can get back to running the ball like they did in '09. The Ravens are big and brash and always talking trash. That's the way their leader Screamin Ray Lewis likes it. They are well coached and battle tested. Flacco, Boldin, Rice, Lewis, Reed. They are loaded. If they can get the best of the Steelers in the regular season then they will be a force in the playoffs.

5. Philadelphia Eagles: Dream Team! Michael Vick is my fantasy QB. I haven't won my family league's title since '05. I'm not just drafting guys I like anymore. I'm not a big fan of Mike Vick the guy. I love watching Michael Vick the QB. He could break lots of records with the Eagle offense. Or he could implode. Or blow out a knee. Anything's possible with him. And with the Eagles.

6. Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons were the NFC's Patriots last year. They had a great regular season, were impossible to beat at home, had a balanced attack and a solid D. And then went into the playoffs and got beat at home. A learning experience. Matt Ryan and his offense put up 414 points last year. They could be better this year.

7. New Orleans Saints: But so will the Saints. And they play in the same tough NFC South. The '09 champs had an up and down year defending their crown. Drew Brees took a lot of beatings. The defense struggled and the offense couldn't make up for it this time. And then New Orleans got pounded by a weak Seattle team in the playoffs. But Sean Payton is a very good coach and the Saints still are a very good team. Now that the pressure is off look for them to come back strong.

8. Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers were back in the Super Bowl with Big Ben. Again. This time they lost. This was my favorite Steeler Super Bowl of all. Although coach Mike Tomlin is growing on me. But the Steelers have had a history in the past decade of following up great years with mediocre ones. With the defense getting old (Palumalu's hair is 30) the Steelers will have to rely on their offense more to win games. That shouldn't be a problem with Roethlisberger and Mendanhall. But they will be playing some very good defenses so maybe it will be a problem.

9. Houston Texans: (See Colts below.) The Texans finally beat the Colts in the opener last year and there was a lot of talk (me included) that the expansion team would make the playoffs for the first time in their history. They won five more games. Five. But... Peyton Manning is out for the year. The Texans have a talented offense. Now that the Colts are out of their way, they should be playing in late January for the first time.

10. San Diego Chargers: I give Norv credit. He doesn't give up. After years of having good regular seasons only to gag in the playoffs, Norv took a talented team and brought it down to 9-7 and out of the playoffs. But he's back again. And he still has Phillip Rivers. The guy is the Papelbon of quarterbacks but he can light it up. If the Chargers can get running back Ryan Matthews on track they should move back past the Chiefs for the AFC West crown.

11. Chicago Bears: Another coach I don't believe in... Lovie Smith of the Bears. Yet there his team was in the NFC title game again. So he must be doing something right. And he's never had a great QB. Maybe I've underestimated him. Maybe he's just too darn nice. The Bears have never had a great QB but they have had one of the best LBs the game has ever seen. Brian Urlacher. As long as they have him they are a playoff contender.

12. Kansas City Chiefs: KC was my dark horse AFC team last year. They came through with a 10-6 record but that was after a 5-2 start so they stumbled to their division's title. And then got schooled by the playoff tested Ravens in Arrowhead. The Chiefs have Matt Cassel, Jamaal Charles, and Dwayne Bowe on offense. They'll put up points. They don't quite have the playmakers on defense.

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Bucs surprised me last year. I may be the last NFL fan to know that Josh Freeman is a good quarterback, Or that Raheem Morris is one of the better younger coaches in the league. I know now. The Bucs won 10 games in the tough NFC South thanks to a solid defense and an offense that did not make too many mistakes. That will need to be the formula again.

14. Indianapolis Colts: It could be a tough year for Colts fans. I'm worried about them. Their team is not nearly as prepared to handle life without Manning as the '08 Pats were to handle life without Brady. The signing of Kerry Collins is all you need to know about just how unprepared they are. The Colts are old almost everywhere but wide receiver. But now they don't have anyone to get those guys the ball. Indy could finish outside the top 20 teams when the season is over. Be good to Colts fans when you see them.

15. Dallas Cowboys: Speaking of fans. This year has to better for fans of the 'Boys. It has to be. Because the Wade Phillips years are over. They were fun for me. But I'm assuming the folks in Texas were not so happy. The much heralded Jason Garrett will finally get his shot to be a head coach. Good luck dealing with Jerry Jones. Dallas has a tough schedule to start but with Rex Ryan's brother Rob as their D coordinator they should be a playoff contender. Romo should have a good year with Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, and Jason Whitten.

16. San Francisco 49ers: The team I picked as my NFC dark horse last year turned out to be a mule. The guy I thought might win coach of the year turned out to be a nut. The Niners were a disaster in every way. They finished a pathetic 6-10. Funny thing is they were only one game behind division winner Seattle. That's how bad the entire division was. Now that San Fran is free from Iron Mike Singletary I think they can win the NFC West. It should only take eight wins.

17. Detroit Lions: This may turn out to be a bit too low for the team from Motown. That's right. The Lions may end up a top 10 team at some point this season. But they are in a tough division. And they were only 6-10 last year. And they have a young QB. It's far from impossible for a team to jump from six wins to the playoffs, it's just harder to do it when you are in the division with the two teams that faced off in the NFC title game. Detroit's ferocious pass rush may just make them a playoff team.

18. New York Giants: Poor Tom Coughlin. Ex-players always seem to want to take shots at him. First it was Tiki. Now Plaxico. (And why is it always guys with goofy names?) Sure. Coughlin's old school. As in veins popping out of his forehead when his team plays like morons. But he's a winner. He has the Super Bowl rings to prove it. If Eli can stop trying to play like Peyton and just play like Eli, the Giants are a playoff contender.

19. Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jags were sitting at 8-5 and looking good with three games to go last season. They lost all three. Jeff Fisher is gone but Jack Del Rio (who I like) is still there. Huh. Jacksonville (and my fantasy team) has MoJo. That's worth a bunch of wins right there. Luke McCown takes over as QB to replace the erratic David Gerrard. Like I said, the Jags have MoJo and a pretty stout D so they could be sitting at 8-5 again.

20. Oakland Raiders: I enjoy the NFL better when the Dolphins, Steelers, Colts and other longtime AFC powers are good. It makes it more fun when the Pats beat them. But not the Raiders. I love it when they stink. And they sure have been giving off an odor for a few years now. Ever since that little game in the snow ten years ago really. But that may be changing. The Raiders are picked as one of 2011's surprise teams by many. The key will be if QB Jason Campbell can take the next step. I'm not so sure of that.

21. Miami Dolphins: One of the more offensively challenged teams. Which is why they became the Miami Wildcats a few years ago. That entertaining experiment is gone, as are running backs Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown. The two guys who made it work. In their place is Reggie Bush. As a lead rusher? I'm not buying it. The Miami D (especially the DBs) keeps them out of the bottom five.

22. Tennessee Titans: One of my favorite coaches is gone. Fisher came within an inch of the first overtime Super Bowl way back in 2000 and it seemed like he would get back to the big game... but it never happened. The Titans brought in veteran QB Matt Hasselback from the northwest. If he still has anything left -- and if Chris Johnson plays -- the Titans will be one of the better non-playoff teams.

23. Denver Broncos: It seems so long ago that Josh McDaniels was running around Mile High (I know, but it will always be Mile High to me) pumping his fist after his undefeated Broncos beat his mentor. It was long ago. Denver looked like they had the right guy to bring the Orange Crush back to the top ... and then they didn't. Now they bring in John Fox. He's kind of the coaching equivalent of Matt Hasselbeck. Difference is Fox has less talent around him than Hasselbeck.

24. Washington Redskins: Sometimes the look in Mike Shanahan's eyes scares me. Guess it scared Donovan McNabb too. I've never seen a coach-QB marriage sour so quickly. McNabb is now off in Minnesota (see below) and Shanahan has a new quarterback to mess with in Rex Grossman. This marriage could work out a little better. The Skins  play in the toughest division in football so finishing last won't be a disgrace.

25. Arizona Cardinals: I'm still pissed at the Cards for losing that Super Bowl to the Steelers. They had it in their hands. Then gave it away. And have been on the downward slope ever since. Arizona grabbed uber-backup Kevin Kolb from Philly to team up with Larry Fitzgerald the way he did with DeSean Jackson. Unfortunately that is all the Cards have going for them.

26. Minnesota Vikings: Doesn't anyone in Vikings management watch the NFL Redzone? If they did they would have seen what I saw last year ... an even slower Donovan McNabb than I ever thought possible. I don't know why teams keep going out and getting players and coaches who clearly have lost it. Or clearly never had it. McNabb hasn't been a good quarterback since he was barfing on the field of the Super Bowl against the Pats. But I guess after the Favre fiasco of last year anything looks good to the Vikings.

27. St. Louis Rams: The Rams are one of those teams that I often forget about. Until I pop in my tape of the '01 Super Bowl. The Sam Bradford years have begun. I don't think they will ever come close to the Kurt Warner years. I'm not sure they'll even match the Marc Bulger years. Stephen Jackson is one of the best running backs in the game. He just has a hard time staying in the game.

28. Cleveland Browns: There should be optimism in Cleveland. The Rat is gone. Eric Mangini should not be a head coach in the NFL. Ever. It took a lot longer for Mike Holmgren to realize that than I thought it would. Holmgren's a smart guy. But he finally did figure it out. The Browns could turn out to be a surprise this year. Colt McCoy and Peyton Hillis combine for a balanced offense. If McCoy had some decent receivers the offense could be really dangerous.

29. Carolina Panthers: The lengthy John Fox era is over. It peaked a long time ago. My brother and nephew down in NC are glad to see him gone. I kind of liked him. He reminded me of Ron Earhart a little. Who I also kind of liked. A regular guy. The Panthers took Cam Newton with the first pick in the draft. He will be starting right away. He's a definite wild card factor. Even if he plays well, the Panthers are looking at last in a division with New Orleans, Atlanta, and Tampa Bay.

30. Buffalo Bills: Is there hope for Bills fans? Will they ever return as a force in the AFC East? Can they ever beat Tom Brady? That is the only question that I'm concerned with. The Bills have some talent on offense with Ivy Leaguer Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing to Steve Johnson. Fred Jackson is one of the more underrated backs in the league. But the defense is a problem. As is the fact that Chan Gailey is the head coach. He didn't show much in Dallas.

31. Cincinnati Bengals: Sorry Mike. I just don't have much hope for the Bungles. The Carson Palmer era is over. Turned out to be a real waste of a good QB. Just like the Corey Dillon era was a waste of a good running back. And the Ochocinco era was... well, you get the idea. The Bengals fell back to earth last season after winning the tough AFC North in '09. And when the Bengals fall, they fall hard. Marv Lewis is still the coach. No. Really. He is.

32. Seattle Seahawks: Pete Carroll may be pumped and jacked that the Hawks won the NFC West but his team still stinks. They were 7-9....  The first sub-.500 division winner. Quite an accomplishment. If Carroll continues the pattern he set when he was coach of the Pats back in the '90s, the Seahawks will go 6-10 this year. Then 5-11. Then, hopefully for Seattle fans, Carroll will enroll for another semester at college.