In conclusion

A funny thing has happened as the Super Bowl that I thought the Pats would be playing in approaches. I'm starting to look forward to the game. Steelers vs. Packers. Should be an entertaining battle. It was the same thing last year when the Colts went up against the Saints. It's the same thing every year. No matter who is in the game, it's always fun. A couple of $10 squares don't hurt.

It's been a few years now since the Pats lost to the Giants, missing a chance at history (thanks again, Asante). The outstanding 2010 season looked like it had a chance to continue into February, but instead it ended in the worst possible way ... a home loss to the foot doctor and the Jets. It was ugly to witness in person. Much like the previous year's ending against the Ravens.

But the aftertaste of this ending is not nearly as sour as last year's. There are many more positives with this 14-2 team. Young players like Chung, Gronkowski, Hernandez, Arrington, and BenJarvis stepped up time and time again in big moments during the season. Veterans Brady, Branch, Welker, and Wilfork stayed healthy and provided the leadership that the young players followed. Mayo and Spikes (when not suspended) made a good combo in the middle of the D and Woody brought a spark to the offense. Unlike the end of 2009 when there seemed to be holes in the roster everywhere you looked, the Pats have a good mix of youth and experience that seems to be coming together.

The team overcame a series of key injuries that started before the season even started with Ty Warren and Leigh Bodden lost for the year and continued with Kevin Faulk and Stephen Gostkowski going down and not getting back up. All NFL teams have to overcome injuries, but not all do. The Pats did. That was just one of the many challenges the team faced and overcame. The regular season was one big game after another (Chargers, Steelers, Jets, Colts, Jets, Bears, Packers) and fourteen times the Pats came away on the winning side. That should not be lost in the disappointment of the playoff loss.

The post-season autopsy for the Patriots is still going strong on sports blab radio. I have caught some of it but not much. Thankfully talk is moving to the Celts run at 18 (I'd bet on it) and the reloaded Sox. But analysis of the Pats playoff loss pops up from time to time. Among the many points made there is one that is as far off base: Tom Brady and the Patriots have lost their last three playoff games. And they lost each one the same way. Not true.

The first of those three losses was that Super Bowl in the winter of '08. It was a classic game. The Pats had the title in their hands but it slipped away. After a year out of the playoffs when Brady got hurt (even though the team finished 11-5), the Pats were back but got shellacked by the Ravens. It was the low point of the past decade. The team was clearly drifting in the wrong direction. Brady got knocked all over the field and the young defense got pushed around. Expectations coming into this season were low, but Belichick and the Pats turned things back in the right direction for a great 14-2 campaign.

It ended again in disappointment. But the Pats didn't get pushed around this time. They actually took it to the Jets for most of the first half. But mistakes -- as they always do in the playoffs -- cost them the game. Yes, the Pats have lost three straight playoff games. But they are not connected at all. The Patriots should get a shot to end that playoff losing streak next year. If the trend they started in 2010 continues, I like their chances.

The month of February has arrived. Time for the Super Bowl and, since the Pats are not in the big game, time for a month off from blogging. If the owners and players don't figure out their issues it could be a lot longer than a month.

A Dan? Or a fan?

The Globe's Dan Shaughnessy says I should be rooting for the Jets against the Steelers today. He just doesn't get it. I'm a New England Patriot fan. There's one team I don't want to see not only win the Super Bowl but even in the Super Bowl. That's the New York Football Jets. Ever.

Clearly Dan has forgotten what it's like to be a fan. A real fan. A stand in the cold for nine hours till you can't feel your feet fan. Maybe he never was that kind of fan. Maybe he's always seen sports from the perspective of the sportswriter. Not that there's anything wrong with that. Some of my best friends are sportswriters. But you are either a fan. Or a Dan. If you are a fan I offer that there's no way in hell you are rooting for the Jets.

JETS IN DALLAS? I can't stomach that.

The Dans say there are two reasons to root for the J-E-T-S. (I won't even waste time talking about the Dans claim that the Jets are fun. Fun? In a "It's fun to see them fail" way, I guess.)

The first reason the Dans put forth is that if the Jets win the Super Bowl then that will force the Patriots to do a better job drafting and signing players, spend more money, and just plain ol' trying harder to win. Hmmmm. The Pats -- with the youngest defense in the league -- went 14-2. Sure, they fell on their face in the playoffs. That happens. But try harder? Really? Kraft and Belichick aren't doing all they can to win? I don't see much evidence of that. I've been tailgating at Pats games since the late '80s. I've seen 1-15. Believe me, the Pats are trying to win. And win it all. It just doesn't happen every year. Fans get that. Dans don't.

The Dans say maybe the Pats would make smarter picks. Maybe they'll draft the defensive rookie of the year and a couple of candidates for offensive rookie of the year. Oh, right. They just did that in McCourty, Gronkowski, and Hernandez. Maybe they will do better in the upcoming draft. Belichick and his crew have more picks in the first four rounds than any team. They can use 'em, trade 'em, collect 'em. They have just had two very good drafts. A third good one and the team is loaded to continue its run at the top of the league for another decade regardless of who is the QB. But maybe a Jets Super Bowl title will somehow make that #17 pick turn into the next Julius Peppers.

As funny as the "the better the Jets are the harder the Pats will work" theory is, the second one is even richer. Pats fans should root against Roethlisberger and the Steelers because if they get to a third Super Bowl then people will start comparing Big Ben to Brady. I think Roethlisberger is already on that level. Maybe the Dans don't watch a lot of non-Patriot football, but for fans that have it's clear the Steeler QB is a true champ. As are the Steelers. The franchise already has six titles. What difference does a seventh make?

Any discussion of the best franchises in the history of the NFL -- rightfully so -- starts with the black and gold. Pittsburgh is the team against which all other teams measure themselves. At least since the beginning of the Super Bowl era. The Patriots -- along with the Niners, the Cowboys, and the Packers -- are next in that discussion. The Jets? Uh, ya. They are nowhere to be found. In fact, in the AFC East it's the Patriots, Dolphins, Bills, and Jets in that order when it comes to discussing overall success. The Jets -- as good as they are and as much as they have accomplished under the foot doctor -- are still a franchise that can't win it all. I want it to stay that way. Because I'm a Pats fan.

The Jets were doing quite a lot of celebrating last Sunday for winning a divisional playoff game. Even if it was against their nemesis. Fact is, you don't get parades and banners for divisional round victories. (Unless you are in Indy). A Jets loss today means they will have once again accomplished nothing. It means they will have advanced to the AFC title game two years in a row with nothing -- nothing -- to show for it.

A loss today by the Jets and it means come next season the Patriots are defending AFC East champs again. And the Jets and Rex Ryan are -- once again -- just a team that does a lot of talking. That's something I can root for.

One and all done

DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF GAME
Jets 28, Patriots 21 (1/16/'11): As I was driving home after dropping Mark and his friend Justin at the Providence Amtrak I had a thought. If my biggest problem with the football team I love to root for is that they just can't seem to win that fourth championship, well, that's not too bad a problem.

DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF: Burned.

It took two hot dogs with everything from the Haven Bros. diner truck to bring me to that state of reason. And maybe a few drinks. There will be lot of Pats bashing in the next few days and weeks. Yesterday was a lousy time to play a lousy game. But it doesn't take away from what was a great year of football and tailgating with friends. 14-2. Not many people expected the team to make such strides. No matter how it ended, it was a season full of positives.

Me, Mark, Shep, Matt, Bergs, Billy and guests gathered in the sun and the cold of P2 with the anticipation of another great tailgate meal and another great game. It sure was a great meal. The chili really hit the spot. Matt -- thanks to a few Red Bulls -- quickly put together the fire pit Billy had put in his shopping cart along with the scallops and bacon. In no time Matt had the pit assembled and Billy had a fire roaring. The weather was perfect. The day was going smoothly.

The first sign it was not going to continue to go smoothly was when it was discovered the Don Julio bottle was just about empty. (Why do they make the glass of the bottle so dark?). The second was when I reached to take the cover off the fire pit and burned my hand. The scar on my little finger will be a fitting reminder of the day. And a reminder not to touch the cover of a blazing fire pit with my bare hands. We toasted Shep's first season of perfect attendance and talked about how great an AFC Championship game at Gillette against the Steelers would be next Sunday. Confidence was high.

Till Brady threw that pick. The first one he has thrown since, well, a long time. The Jets have a very good defense. I figured they would make life difficult for Brady and the offense. But I didn't think they could shut them down. They did. Like last year's defeat to the Ravens, there's not much about the game worth analyzing. The Pats came out looking sharp, driving down to the Jets' 20. Then came the interception. But, thanks to a great tackle by a hustling Crumpler and a miss by the Jets kicker, the pick did no damage. At least on the scoreboard. The Pats got the ball back and put together a solid drive. As the first half neared an end the Pats had seven first downs to just one by the Jets. But the drive stalled when Crump dropped an easy TD pass and Brady was sacked. The Pats settled for a field goal and a 3-0 lead.

There didn't seem much cause for concern. We all knew it wasn't going to be another blowout. Then the wheels came off in the second quarter. Blown coverages. Sacks. A horrible fake punt that led to a late first half touchdown by the Jets to take a 14-3 lead. The spark just seemed to drain from the Pats. The Jets now knew they would be playing the second half just as they had hoped -- with the lead and confidence. They could attack Brady. And they did.

The Patriots -- after a year of making so many plays -- made very few yesterday. I'll have to watch the tape of the game to be sure, but it didn't look to me like the Jets played that great a game. The Pats came out looking strong but then just went flat. The offense couldn't make plays to stay on the field and got frustrated. The defense couldn't make plays to get off the field. The difference between the NFL and the others sports is that there is no best-of-seven. No chance to even the series. One and done. It's what makes each game so important and exciting. Have a flat game in the playoffs and a season of hard work and success ends quickly. Very quickly.

The Jets move on to their second consecutive AFC title game. Rex Ryan and his band of merry men are 4-1 in the playoffs the last two years -- all road games. That's impressive. If they win next week they will have sure earned a shot at their first title since '69 by winning at Indy, New England, and Pittsburgh. Are they better than the Pats? Today they are. But come next season I expect the Pats to once again be the best in their division. Then they will have to figure out a way to start winning playoff games again. Maybe, like the Jets, they should go on the road.

Mark got out of the car at the train station. He leaned in to grab his bag and he said "We have like seven of the first 80 picks in the draft in a few months. We'll be back here again this same weekend next year and you'll be dropping me off after a win." Next fall. I can't wait.

I wonder if there are any good movies playing?

What a difference a year makes

It feels different this time.

Last year as I was getting ready for the home playoff game against Baltimore there were a lot of doubts about the Pats. The team had failed time after time to make big plays in the big games during the season. There were leads blown late. Mistakes made. Tackles missed. Confidence lost.

BRADY & BILL: Redemption.

Sitting in the parking lot before the game we all asked the same things. Can the Pats play a complete 60-minute game? Can they overcome injuries? Can their coaching staff bring forth a game plan that throws the other team off balance? Can their best players (mostly Brady) step it up when it really counted? As the Ravens pounded the Pats all over the field the answers became clear. No. No. No. And no.

This year those same questions have already been answered. Often with a convincing yes. Big wins against the Colts, Steelers, Ravens, Packers, Jets, Chargers, and so on have shown that -- unlike last year -- the Patriots can make plays when it counts. They have played smart, focused, and aggressive all year. They will have to keep doing just that Sunday.

I have been wavering between quiet confidence and deep dread about this game. Losing to the Jets would be a very disheartening ending to this very entertaining season. The Jets are a good team. And a very good road team. They can create havoc on defense and can make big plays on offense. And, as was obvious from the constant din coming from their locker room all week, they are cocky. There has been very little actual football talk this week. The little I did hear had very astute analysis such as "The Jets need to put pressure on Brady and force him to make mistakes." No kidding. Sometimes it's amazing that writers don't hit the delete key when they reread their stories.

No matter how you analyze the game, the key will be ball protection. And I don't mean athletic supporters. I mean turnovers. Watch today's playoff games. The teams are pretty even. The difference will be who takes care of the ball and who doesn't. That's always the key. And it has been the key of keys for the Pats' 14-2 regular season. They have had a record low give-aways while making some big take-aways. You can break down the line-ups and the match-ups all you want. Just protect the ball.

The Jets' trash-talking may be getting Pats' fans even more fired up for the game but I don't think the Pats' players -- at least those who were on the team last year -- are even listening. The talk of the border war. Boston vs. New York. Ryan vs. Belichick. Toegate vs. Spygate. Baby Daddy Cromartie vs. Big Daddy Brady. All that pales to what really will be motivating the Patriots. Redemption. Erasing the memory of last year. That game has to still linger with Brady and Belichick as it does with me. They have been motivated for this game since that cold January day. No talking. Quiet determination.

The talk is over. Now it's time for the game. Finally. The chili is simmering. The wings are marinating. The beer is chilling. Although from the sound of the forecast, warm beer won't be a problem. More playoff football at Gillette. Thank you, Mr. Kraft. Hopefully you're not going to raise the parking fee.

Second (round) thoughts

Time to test my prognosticating skills again. Last week the only winner I picked was the Jets. 1-3 is not going to cut it in Vegas. Unless the money from that one win was on longshot Seattle in their upset of the Saints. It wasn't.

The second-round games in the AFC are two great division rivalries. The Pats against the Jets and the Steelers against the Ravens. That's playoff football at its best. Over in the NFC, with the defending champs gone, it's the Bears hosting the Seahawks and the Falcons taking on the visiting Packers. Two interesting games. Assuming the Seahawks can play like they did last week and the weather isn't a big factor, these should be tight games with a good amount of scoring. The offenses are that good.

AFC

Baltimore (13-4) at Pittsburgh (12-4): We are all trying to get away from violent imagery following the horrible events in the alien nation of Arizona. But this game is going to be a bloodbath. Literally. At least it was when the two teams met in early December. The Ravens D broke Roethlisberger's nose in the first quarter and the big guy spent the rest of the game shoving it back into place and leading his team to victory. The winner of this game will be as bruised and bloodied as the loser. Pittsburgh has the #1 defense, the Ravens #3. And yet I expect both the offenses to make some big plays. Flacco and the Ravens offense had a great second half against KC. But this will be different. The Steelers D should be able to both keep RB Ray Rice in check and fill the lanes on Flacco. I expect Polamalu and Pittsburgh to win the turnover battle and the game. Steelers 23, Ravens 20.

NY Jets (12-5)  at New England (14-2): As Rex Ryan calls it... Round 3. The last time these two teams met was also in December. But unlike the Ravens-Steelers game it wasn't a bloodbath. It was a bludgeoning. The Pats put a 45-3 beating on Mt. Ryan and he has spent the whole week talking about making sure that doesn't happen again. Well, then he's going to have to figure out a way to stop Brady, Welker, Branch, Gronk, Woody, BenJarvis, and Hernandez. All of them. That's a tall task for a team that is still without defensive leader Jim Leonard. He went out three days before the December game and the Jets had no time to adjust. Now they have. It should make a difference. But not enough of a difference. The Pats young defense will be the key. They come into the playoffs with much more confidence than last year, having won many huge games. If they play their game, they should be able to add another one to the list. Patriots 30, Jets 20.

NFC

Green Bay (11-5) at Atlanta (13-3): This should be a great game. Saturday's schedule is Pack-Falcons and Steelers-Ravens. What a day of football. The Pack are like the Giants of 2007. We all remember them. Green Bay has a nasty pass rush and an offense that can put up just enough points to win. They did it against Philly. They could do it against Atlanta. Problem with the Pack is they make too many mistakes. Penalties. Turnovers. They often beat themselves. The Falcons, led by Matt Ryan, are almost impossible to defeat at home unless you play a perfect game. That's not the Pack's strong suit. The biggest question for the Falcons is are they ready to take the next step? They are in a similar position that the Saints were last year. New Orleans had been on the verge of making a Super Bowl run for a few years before finally breaking through. Atlanta looks ready to break through this year. Falcons 27, Packers 24.

Seattle (8-9) at Chicago (11-5): So did the Seahawks catch a break by avoiding the top-seeded Falcons? I'm not so sure. Beating the high-powered Falcons would have been a huge task. But at least the game would have been indoors on a fast track. That suits Seattle. There's a chance that Soldier Field will be cold and snowy on Sunday. That favors Da Bears. This is actually a tough game to call. I'm not a Bears believer. Jay Cutler is the kind of QB who you can almost count on to make a huge mistake. As is coach Lovie Smith. The Bears offense made many big mistakes at home against the Jets in Week 16 but the defense played well enough to overcome them. Julius Peppers and the Chicago D will not get shredded like New Orleans. Matt Hasselback will be under pressure all day. Marshawn Lynch won't be stiff-arming Bear defenders to the ground. The Seahawks are the true wild card in these playoffs. The have to win this week just to get to .500 for the season. I don't think the Bears defense will let that happen. If Pete Carroll takes this team to the NFC title game... my faith in everything will be shaken. Bears 20, Seahawks 10.

Well, that didn't take long

I had barely shaken the sleep out of my brain this Monday when I read this quote from Rex Ryan on ESPN.com : "This is about Bill Belichick vs. Rex Ryan. There's no question, it's personal. It's about him against myself. That's what it's going to come down to."

The trash talk has begun. And it's only Monday.

Mt. Ryan finished his Grand Slam breakfast and took to the podium for his morning press conference. (Here's the complete video on nyjets.com. He starts talking about the Pats at about the 1:30 mark.) If it was Belichick (or any other coach) you'd hear lots of the following: "We know we are facing a tough challenge this week. They are a very good team. We are going to have to be at our best. So on and so on."

Not Rex. That's not his way.

"I recognize (Belichick's) the best. I'm just trying to be the best on Sunday, and I plan on being the best coach on Sunday. ... That's what it is. I recognize my level has to come up. He's going to get my best shot. He's going to get everything I have on Sunday. If he slips at all, we're gonna beat him."

This is going to be a fun week.

Nothing Ryan said was a shot at Belichick. He called him a Hall of Famer and probably the best coach the game has ever seen. Correct on both points. He was simply saying he got out-coached in the Monday night game in December and knows that can't happen again or his team will get crushed again. Correct on both points.

But why say it at all? Was it, as some writers have suggested, a clever ploy to take the pressure off his players and put it on his shoulders? I doubt it. The foot doctor likes to talk. That's his thing. It seems he likes to talk more than he likes to coach. He likes to put on a show. A show that is all just for show. Take the time he buried the game ball after that Monday night loss to the Pats. He gathered the team around on the practice field in Jersey and made a speech about burying the ball and putting the loss behind them. Great show. The Jets lost at home the next week against the not-so-tough Dolphins. So much for the show.

This is a must win game for Rex Ryan. He knows it. You can only shoot your mouth off so long before you have to back it with results. He's 3-1 in the playoffs with the Jets. Pretty darn good. None of that matters if his team loses Sunday.

Ryan closed his Belichick comments by saying: "I told Belichick after the game, 'We'll see you in Round 3.' He just looked at me." I can only imagine what Belichick was thinking at that moment. Maybe it was "Well Rex, because we just kicked your butt, if there is a Round 3 it will be right here at Gillette. Where we very rarely lose."

I enjoy listening to Ryan babble on. It's a good show. But I'm glad he isn't the coach of the team that I root for. Although I wouldn't mind a little input from him on the tailgate menu for Round 3.

With the 17th pick in the draft...

With all the excitement of the playoffs I completely forgot to check on where the Raiders finished in the draft order. A quick check of NFL.com shows they own pick #17. Check that. The New England Patriots own pick #17.

The Raiders sent the pick to the Pats before last season for Pro Bowler Richard Seymour. The veteran had fallen out of favor with the coaches. Not sure why. He was a good player although I always felt he was a little overrated. Either way, he was gone. And the Pats had the Raiders' top pick in the 2011 draft two years later. When the trade was made the Raiders were a mess. The prospects of the pick being in the top 10 seemed good.

It didn't quite work out that way. The Raiders, behind coach Tom Cable, were expected to win four or five games. The silver and black got off to a 1-3 start and the Pats' pick seemed in good hands with Cable. But then something strange started happening. The Raiders started winning. at one point winning three in a row. It was very annoying to watch, kind of like the stock market. The Raiders finished the season a respectable and surprising 8-8. As a reward Raider patriarch Al Davis fired Cable. Maybe he was worried that the Patriots would no longer trade with him because they were mad that the pick wasn't in the top 10. Don't worry Al. Belichick will still take your calls offering draft picks and star wide receivers any time.

According to NFL draft guru Mel "The Hair" Kyper, if the Pats want to go offense with the 17th pick they might have a shot at two Alabama players: running back Mark Ingram or wide receiver Julio Jones. On the defensive side, players like D linemen Adrian Clayborn of Iowa or Cameron Heyward of Ohio St. Of course that all depends on Belichick actually using the pick. Which is a 50-50 deal at best.

When the Pats go on the clock with the 17th pick, they will have six of the next 80 selections. If they hit on half of those, added to the great drafts of the last two years, the team will be stocked for seasons to come.

And if the Pats can find a guy even half as good as the guy in the video below... well that will be a hell of a player.

New York, New York

You just knew it had to be the Jets. The teams have split their four games since Mt. Ryan took over Gang Green in '09. The rivalry has been boiling at high for a good decade now. Time to boil over. A week's worth of trash talk from Mr. Foot Fetish should take care of that.

The Jets did what I thought they would do, but hoped they wouldn't. They went into Indy and beat Peyton Manning. Barely. With a walk-off kick. It was a great playoff game. And another great road playoff win by Ryan's Jets. Last year they won at Cincy and San Diego before losing to the Colts. Last night they got that one corrected. Now they come to Foxborough. The site of the Monday Night Massacre. If there's a team more motivated than last year's Ravens to come into Gillette and knock off the Patriots, it's this Jets team. Sunday starting at 4:30 they will get their chance.

PATS-JETS: Football holy war.

The rivalries with the Colts, Steelers, and Ravens are intense. Especially the Colts. Patriots vs. Jets is more than just a rivalry. It's the NFL's Hatfields and McCoys. As Tom Brady so concisely put it earlier this year: I hate the Jets. I wrote last week about what would have to happen in the playoffs to make this a successful season for the Pats. Everything other than losing to the Jets would be a success in my mind. Losing to the Jets at home in the playoffs... eh, I don't want to think about that.

The two teams have played 103 games in their history and have split them 51-51-1. But the Patriots have always gotten the better of the Jets when it really counts. The Pats have won both playoff games. The first in 1985 when the team started its amazing run to the Super Bowl with a 26-14 win in the old Meadowlands. I remember watching the game over my brother Richard's house. The place was packed. The Pats made lots of big plays and we spent the afternoon recreating them in the backyard in a touch football game. In 2006 the two teams met for the second time in the playoffs. Belichick vs. Mangini. A real grudge match. It was all Patriots, 37-16. Some more touch football followed that win -- this time in Gillette's parking lot. The Patriots didn't win the Super Bowl in either of those years. But they didn't lose to the Jets. That made it a good season.

This Sunday's second round matchup is the biggest battle this football war has seen. And it has a perfect villain. Mr. Twinkle Toes. The Jets' coach has been a great addition to the story. From the moment he arrived saying he wasn't kissing Belichick's rings, he has brought a swagger that had eluded the Jets for many years. He sure talks the talk. In fact, Ryan got a head start last week by taking a few shots at Tom Brady while praising Manning. He and Belichick couldn't be more different. It makes for great theater.

The Jets came into the big Monday night clash in December talking tough (see video above). Both teams were 9-2. The Pats put a beating on NY and have not lost since. The Jets were stumbling till yesterday. It's been a great season for Pats fans. Now the fun really starts.

I can already see the NY Post headline if the Pats send Ryan and the Jets home losers... Agony of da feet!

Tourney time

It's the most wonderful time of the year. I'm not talking about that joyous week after all the stress and obligations and annoyances from the holidays have finally passed. I'm talking the NFL playoffs. The bye-week Patriots will be sitting comfortably on their couches along with the rest of us watching what should be some very entertaining and close battles.

I haven't done the research -- because that's not what I do here -- but this may be the first time in NFL history that all four road teams (the wild cards) either have the same or better record than the four division winners. How will that effect the results? Who knows. Here are my largely uneducated picks for Wild Card weekend:

AFC

NY Jets (11-5) at Indianapolis (10-6): I could go with my heart and say Colts 45, Jets 3. But my head says Mt. Ryan and the Jets are the slightly better team. Neither has looked that impressive down the stretch but the Jets have more healthy weapons on offense and -- despite the loss of safety Jim Leonard -- the defense should be strong in the playoffs. The Colts are saying they plan on trying to match the Jets run for run with a healthy Joe Addai. Right. Manning will be throwing the ball all over the place. The two teams met in the AFC title game last year and the Jets squandered a 17-7 lead. This time they hold on. Jets 26, Colts 23.

Baltimore (12-4) at Kansas City (10-6): This is the game I'm most interested in watching. I predicted the Chiefs would capture the AFC West crown and they did. But it would have been more impressive of they hadn't lost to the Raiders in the season finale. But they did. This is the classic matchup of the playoff veteran (Ravens) vs. the playoff rookie (Chiefs). The veteran almost always wins. But Arrowhead will be red and rockin'. It will be fun to watch. I think Matt Cassell and the Chiefs channel some Patriot magic and shut down -- and shut up -- Ray Lewis and the Ravens. Chiefs 20, Ravens 13.

NFC

New Orleans (11-5) at Seattle (7-9): You read that right. 7-9. The Seahawks are the first team to make the playoffs with a losing record. And they did it in style, dropping seven of their last 10 games. But Pete Carroll and his squad are P'd and J'd to be in the playoffs and are -- incredibly -- at home. Like KC, Seattle is a very tough place to play. But the defending champs know how to win on the road. And they should win easily. The Saints have looked shaky at times, but this is the playoffs. They are the champs. The only question should be is it a high or low scoring game? That will all depend on the weather. The forecast looks decent -- for the Northwest. Saints 45, Seahawks 27.


Green Bay (10-6) at Philadephia (10-6): Michael Vick and the Eagles were all the rage a few weeks ago when they made that improbably rally against the Giants. That was a couple of weeks ago. Since then Mad Dog Vick has looked mortal-ish. As have the Eagles. But a team with Vick, DeSean, and LeSean are a potent offensive force. The Eagles will need all three against a ferocious Packers' D. Aaron Rodgers brings his own passing attack. These two teams are about as evenly matched as you can get. Tie goes to the home team. Eagles 21, Packers 20.

Final review

What was a great NFL regular season came to a curious end this past Sunday. The Seahawks and Rams closed out the day with a winner-take-all NFC West clash. Normally you would think that would be a great game. However, the Rams were 7-8 and the Pete Carroll-led Seahawks were 6-9. Yes, 6-9 and playing for a division title. Which Seattle won in a really poor exhibition of football. The Seahawks may be one of the 12 teams in the playoffs, but they are not close to one of the 12 best teams. However, the other 11 that did make the playoffs are all very good teams. As usual, the tournament is wide open.

1. New England Patriots (14-2): I optimistically thought the Pats would be 13-3. They were really only a handful of big-plays-not-made away from a much better year last year. I just figured that a Belichick-coached team would start to make more plays. But not this many. From Woodhead to Gronk, McCourty to Chung, young players have stepped up week after week to make life that much easier for Brady and Wilfork. Like every playoff team, the Pats have issues. But to this point they have been able to overcome them.

2. Atlanta Falcons (13-3): The NFC's version of the Patriots? Pretty much. The Falcons' D is -- statistically at least -- a little better than New England's but the Pats offense is a little better. The Falcons have a balanced attack. Matt Ryan, Roddy White, and Michael Turner are as good a trio as there is. Atlanta is playoff ready, having played in and won a tough division with both New Orleans and Tampa. Like the Pats, the Falcons rarely beat themselves. The Saints are the defending champs, but Atlanta has to be the NFC favorite.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4): Tom Brady is clearly the MVP of the league. Most people put Michael Vick right behind him. Not me. I'd put Troy Polamalu and his curls in that spot. The Steelers are a good team without him (which for Steeler fans is probably too often). They are a great team with him. He is a difference maker. It seemed that every time I watched a Pittsburgh game he would be making a game-winning play. On the other side of the ball, Big Ben is as tough as they come and a proven champ. I'm just glad if the Pats and Steelers meet that it will be in Foxborough.

4. New Orleans Saints (11-5): The defending champs sure took some knocks this year. Losses to Cleveland and Arizona were partly due to injuries and partly due to just how difficult it is to repeat. Each year that goes by makes me appreciate more the back-to-back 14-2 seasons the Pats put up. Like the Patriots, New Orleans has a great coach and QB. Unlike the Pats, the Saints D has played well this year. It looked like they were getting healthy again, only to lose a few key players in the season finale. Can the Saints get back to the Super Bowl? I wouldn't bet against them.

5. Baltimore Ravens (12-4): Fortunately the Ravens won't be coming to Gillette in the first round. They are headed west to play KC. I would think they would be favored. They are that good. Baltimore plays a perfect style for the playoffs. Tough, hard-nosed on offense and defense. Ray Lewis will be screaming while Ed Reed makes plays. I'll be rooting for the Chiefs to get the Ravens out of the playoffs. If it doesn't happen, Baltimore is capable of going into Pittsburgh or New England (or both) and winning.

6. Chicago Bears (11-5): I'm just not a Bears believer. The coach often looks clueless. The QB often looks brainless. Yet they earned a bye. Reason? Julius Peppers and the defense. Chicago finished fourth in the league in points allowed. With Peppers causing havoc on the line, the Bears were second in the league against the run. Surprisingly, with Peppers also leading a solid pass rush, they were only 20th against the pass. The Bears might make it to the NFL title game, but if it is in Atlanta I think their season ends there. Although I would love them to get to the Super Bowl against the Patriots. '85 avenged!

7. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6): Philly was riding high after their comeback against the Giants in Week 15. Sitting at 10-4, the Eagles had a good shot at a bye. They proceeded to lose their last two games, to Minnesota and Dallas. Two teams out of the playoff race. So much for being the team to beat. Michael Vick is always dangerous. He can win a game by himself. The Eagles will be tough to beat at home in the Wild Card round. After that I'm not so sure.

8. New York Jets (11-5): Huh. I thought Rex Ryan had said something at the start of the season about the Jets finishing with the best record in the league. Maybe I was mistaken. Gang Green hasn't recovered from the Monday night beating at Gillette. Actually, they haven't recovered from the loss of safety and defensive captain Jim Leonard. An old school guy like that is hard to replace. QB Sanchez showed last year that he can handle the playoff pressure. That is key. Playing on the road is not a problem for the Jets. That makes them very dangerous.

9. Indianapolis Colts (10-6): Peyton Manning makes it to the tourney again. This one wasn't easy. Even though the Colts were in the Super Bowl last year, they won a lot of games in miraculous fashion to get there. They were good. And they were lucky. They haven't been as lucky this year. Nor as good. The thinking is that any team with #18 at QB will be tough to beat. True. The Colts aren't as well coached as the Pats, Steelers, or Ravens and they won't have the comfort of their dome when it really counts. The Super Bowl-loser hangover has been a real killer.

10. Kansas City Chiefs (10-6): My favorite team other than the Pats (Len Dawson, Hank Stram, 65 Toss Power Trap) has gotten back on track thanks to several ex Pats. The Chiefs held off the overrated Chargers to win the AFC West and are tough to beat at home. They only lost to one playoff team all year (Indy). Problem is they only played one playoff team all year. Not the way to get playoff ready. But coaches Charlie Weiss and Romeo Crennel have lots of playoff experience. That should help an inexperienced Matt Cassell.

11. Green Bay Packers (10-6): The Pack may have underachieved more than any other playoff team. Then again, if you look at the key injuries the team had maybe they actually overachieved. Either way, they are a very dangerous 10-6 wild card team. Aaron Rodgers and the offense (even without a running game) can put up points in a hurry. But like division rival Chicago, the key to the Pack's success is the defense. Green Bay, led by linebackers Clay Matthews and A.J. Hawk, gave up only 15 points a game. If they can maintain that in the playoffs they should be in the NFC title game.

12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-6): The only non-playoff team on the list. Raheem Morris went 3-13 in his rookie year in '09. His team made huge strides this year. Without a lot of top shelf talent. That's the sign of a good coach. Mike Singletary should watch and learn. No-name players Josh Freeman (QB) and LeGarrette Blount (RB) gave the offense some life. The defense, led by Ronde Barber and Aqib Talib, was ninth in the league in points allowed. The Bucs are worthy of being a playoff team even if they won't be there.

Dishonorable mention: The entire NFC West. Come on. Not one of these teams could muster a winning record? How's that possible? I thought the Niners would take advantage of an easy division and win 11 games. They won 6. Then I thought the Cardinals -- division winners the last few years -- could step up. Five wins. That left the "rebuilding" Seahawks and Rams to stage an epic battle for the division. Seattle, at 7-9, took the division crown. Hey, somebody had to win it.

Why are we here?

WEEK 17
Patriots 38, Dolphins 7: Why am I here? That's what the Globe's Shaughnessy said I'd be asking myself as I stood with my friends in the parking lot of Gillette yesterday as a light rain fell on the top our tent.

A game that meant nothing in the standings for either team was deemed meaningless. So why not just stay home? The sun started breaking through the clouds as Shep took the chicken off the grill. The group next to us started up a roaring fire pit (somewhat uncomfortably close to their large propane tank) and rolled out a flatscreen TV on the back of their pickup. Someone was blasting Zeppelin in the distance.

WEEK 17: A happy home.

"Why are we here?" me, Shep, Matt, and Bergs all said laughing as we raised our drinks to what we hoped would be a great ending to a ridiculously fun regular season. There were so many reasons. The food, the drinks, the football talk, the scene, the friends ... oh, and the game. Why were we there? Easy. We're football fans and our team plays the game of football about as entertainingly as it can be played. As they did yesterday in the regular season finale to finish at 14-2, best in the AFC.

We got to our seats with cocktails in hand and quickly shed our rain layers. It was sweatshirt weather on January 2. A great treat considering a week ago the area was getting buried in almost two feet of snow. I put my jacket on my seat and thought that come the playoff game in two weeks I most likely would be adding layers instead of shedding them. At least I hoped so.

There was little doubt that many of the starters would play in the game. That's Belichick's way. But I was glad to hear Welker would not be one of them. In last year's final game -- also with nothing at stake -- he blew out his knee when he tried to avoid a tackle. It was a freak injury. One that he is still recovering from. Belichick wisely had him sit this one out (along with Branch and Hernandez). But Brady was playing.

I watched highlights of some of the meaningful games played yesterday and saw teams, that had to win, play some very sloppy, mediocre football. In contrast, the Pats, who could have taken the day off, came out looking as sharp as they had been all season. In the first five minutes players who have come up big all year combined to put the Pats up quickly. Rookie corner Devin McCourty -- Pro Bowler -- made a great pick at midfield and set Brady and the offense up. Woodhead took a direct snap and ran for 19 yards down to the Dolphin 21. Brady then hit Gronk -- another impact rookie -- for a 12-yard touchdown pass. The weather was great, the drinks were cold, and the Pats were on their game -- again. Why are we here?

Early in the second quarter -- with the Pats D on the field and the team ahead by two touchdowns -- Brady and his backup Brian Hoyer sat side-by-side on the bench going over some notes. Clearly Hoyer was coming in. "Brady's telling him he better not screw up," Matt said. "or Belichick will make him go back in." How right he was. Brady came off the field after a first-down play and Hoyer came in. Hoyer looked really bad on his first two passes and Brady put his helmet back on as the coach waved him back in. Belichick sent Hoyer -- and the whole team -- yet another message. Always be ready. Hoyer wasn't.

Brady went on to play the rest of the half and started the third quarter. When he came out of the game for good the Pats were ahead 31-0 and the soon-to-be league MVP finished the year with 36 touchdown passes and only four picks. Since the loss in Cleveland, Brady has played the best football of his career. It's fun to watch. BenJarvis broke 1,000 yards rushing. Julian Edelman made some big plays -- including a great punt return for a touchdown. Even Hoyer got a second chance and looked much better. It was a convincing way to head into the playoffs.

The victory completed the second straight 8-0 regular season at Gillette. We've been fortunate to enjoy some great seasons of tailgating since getting our tickets 17 years ago. But 2010 ranks at the top. Maybe that's because of the way the Pats were crushed at home in the playoffs last year. The team could have gone in either direction after that game. Even the most optimistic of people (me) didn't see it turning this far in the positive direction. But Belichick, Brady, and Wilfork (he's now as irreplaceable as the other two) led the way through great roads wins at Pittsburgh, Miami, San Diego, and Chicago and home wins against Minnesota, Baltimore, Indy, and the Jets. As we packed up the post-game tailgate, we started making plans for another home playoff game. Hopefully with a second one to follow.

"Why are we here?" we shouted as we got in our cars for the ride home.