Reading material

Wild-card weekend lived up to its name... mostly due to the instant-classic the Steelers and Broncos staged yesterday evening in Denver. The Saints offense looked awesome (again). The Giants D looked even better than it did in '07 (yikes). The Texans, even with TJ Yates at QB, looked good enough to go into Baltimore and pull the upset (please). But it was the Broncos and the Steelers that are the talk of the football world today. Well, as usual, most of the talk is about Tebow.

• The Christian Science Monitor -- how fitting -- weighs in with an interesting piece on how Tebow not being great is what makes Tebow great. 
• The Denver Post is finding religion. Tebow's performance in the thriller over Pittsburgh has lifted the holy spirits all around Colorado. It's been that magical.
• And let's not forget the Steel City. Pittsburgh is not used to losing games like that. I'm not used to seeing Pittsburgh losing games like that. I could get used to it. Reading some of the Steelers stories today, it was clear that this loss was less of a surprise in Pittsburgh than it was to me.

The Saints, Giants, Broncos, and Texans all looked capable of being this year's "team that gets hot in the playoffs." Their victories set up one of the most promising divisional rounds I can remember. In the NFC, the high-octane offense of the Saints against the stone-wall D of the Niners is a classic speed vs. brute force contest. The other NFC game is the Giants, looking very dangerous, going into Lambeau to take on the 15-1 defending champs. If the Packers are going to repeat, they are going to have to beat the Giants and either New Orleans or San Fran. That's a tough road back to the Super Bowl. In the AFC, the game that has the least buzz is Houston at Baltimore. It could turn out to be the best game of the weekend. Both teams can run and play nasty defense. And each can pass just enough to make plays. I will be hoping Houston pulls the upset, of course, because I'd rather not see Terrell Suggs chasing Brady all over the field during the AFC title game. THE game of the weekend will take place Saturday night at Gillette. There will be lots of talk this week about how lucky the Pats are to get Denver. That they should win rather easily. There are no sure things in the playoffs. Just look at yesterday's Broncos game.

Tebow time!

Tebow knocks out the Steelers!

Broncos vs. Patriots. Saturday at 8. Divisional playoffs. A rematch of the game in December in which the Pats fell behind early but pulled it together and dominated the rest of the way for a big victory on the road. This time it's at Gillette, but it's still going to be a tough game. It's always a tough game against the Broncos. Another chapter in one of the NFL's most interesting rivalries.

The tailgating will start very early in the afternoon. Extended forecast is partly cloudy with temps in the 20s. And a chance of light snow.

Time to start marinating meat.

Let the games begin

 It's playoff time... or as Jim Mora would say... Playoffs?!!!! Playoffs?!!!!

The word may have struck a nerve with Mora, but it's the favorite word of NFL fans. And it starts today.

It all kicks off with wild-card weekend, a weekend that the Pats have often had the luxury of watching along with the rest of us this past decade. The four matchups are often some of the best football games of the year. This year should be no different. So who will win? That's the best part... they are hard games to predict. But what the heck...

Cincinnati 30, Houston 17

New Orleans 37, Detroit 27

NY Giants 20, Atlanta 17

Denver 17, Pittsburgh 16

Jets to the MAX

I said to my nephew Pete as we were driving to Gillette on a beautiful New Year's Day morning... "If I could choose between the Pats winning today and getting the top seed and the Jets making the playoffs, or the Pats losing and getting the second seed and the Jets losing and not making the playoffs... I would chose the Pats losing,"

That's what you call being an irrational sports fan. Rooting more against another team than you are rooting for your own team. But I knew the pleasure I would get this week from the completion of the Jets implosion. Or at least I thought I knew. Turns out I way underestimated just how much fun it would be.

It actually started before the game even ended. Team "captain" Santonio Holmes, a malcontent his entire career, got into an argument in the huddle with teammates who had finally had enough of his act. In the huddle! In the fourth quarter of a game the Jets had to have. With everything on the line. Holmes was benched for the final few minutes. He didn't have a catch in the game. The Jets wilted in the Miami heat and lost 19-17. No playoffs. No Super Bowl.

And then the fun really began. First Ladianian Tomlinson chimed in on the Holmes argument and his captain's body language. "I'll tell you what," LT said. "It's tough for guys to follow a captain that kind of behaves in that manner. You're a captain, guys looking to you. You've got to lead by example. You've got to play your tail off until the last play." This from LT. The "leader" of the Chargers who left the AFC title game against the Pats a few years ago and sat sulking on the bench, buried under the hood of his giant winter coat, as his team's championship dreams faded yet again.

Give L.T. credit for facing the media. His teammate Bart Scott just flipped off the reporters, but not before saying "All I know is I have a $4 million guaranteed contract next year." The Jets say that isn't actually true.

Mt. Ryan then got his chance to speak and, once again, came off looking mostly like a buffoon. He talked about how he was not sorry that he spent more time predicting his team would win the Super Bowl and talking smack about the opponents than he did making sure his team was ready to play. He pretty much predicted -- again -- that the Jets would win it all next year. Eventually the questions turned to the Holmes argument in the huddle and his benching.

Here's what the Super Bowl champion coach had to say... "I looked out there and was wondering why he wasn't out there. I did not bench Santonio." Hmmm... Can you imagine Bill Belichick saying that? Maybe Ryan should take a few press conference lessons from him.

Things really got entertaining later in the week when the team's injured, rookie, fourth-string quarterback decided he too should talk. That's what Rex Ryan's players do. They talk. A lot. Greg McElroy (I googled him. He actually does play for the Jets) had this to say about his first year in the NFL...  "This place is a zoo. It's the first time I've ever been around extremely selfish individuals. There were people within our locker room that didn't care whether we won or lost as long as they really had a good game individually. It's going to take a lot to kind of come together next year."

Ryan did a little post-mortem during the week and summed it up very well..."Normally, I'm a guy that really has the pulse of the team," he said humbly. "I don't think I had the pulse of the team the way I've done in the past."

So many great quotes from a great collapse. But my favorite came from an unexpected source... the director of the Jets very unfortunate Pepsi MAX commercial that's been playing the past week or so. (Wonder how the execs at Pepsi have felt watching the Jets collapse knowing they were the focus of their new ad campaign?) The director describes working with Ryan and the Jets... "They're the best group of people I've ever worked with. Ryan has put together a fabulous team. The guys are harmonious."

I guess he should stick to making commercials and not judging team talent and chemistry.

Just as Ryan and the Jets should have stuck to studying game film and practicing instead of opening their mouths and making commercials.

Tournament teams

The very entertaining 2011 NFL regular season -- the one that almost wasn't -- has come to an end. Tebow. The Pack's run at 16-0. The Jets' collapse. Passing records falling like Ocho trying to catch a ball. The Harbaugh brothers. Very entertaining indeed. I thought the Pats would barely win the AFC East with an 11-5 record. They won the division a little easier than that. The Pats are the top seed in the AFC again. The defending champs are the top in the NFC. Will they stage a rematch of the '96 Super Bowl? New Orleans, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, or San Fran might have something to say about that. Here's my final Top 12. Why 12? Because that's how many playoff teams there are.

1. Green Bay Packers (15-1): Can they repeat like the '04 Pats? Yes they can. Will they? We'll see. Aaron Rodgers and his offense can score from anywhere on the field. Ryan Grant's return to health has gone under the radar but will be big in the playoffs. The Packers D gives up just as many yards as the Pats, but none of the experts seem to be concerned about that. Preseason rank: #3.

2. New Orleans Saints (13-3): Can they stop the Pack from back-to-back titles? Yes they can. Will they? We'll see. Drew Brees is unstoppable. He led my nephew Pete to a fantasy title almost single-handed. He looks ready to do the same in real football. If I were given a grand and told to put it on one team right now ... it would be the Saints. Preseason rank: #7.

3. New England Patriots (13-3): Since the two teams ranked ahead of the Pats are both in the NFC, that puts the Pats in the Super Bowl. Right? But that's getting way ahead of things. First they have to win a home playoff game. If it's Cincy or Denver coming to town in two weeks, I think the team gets the playoff monkey off its back. If it's the Steelers, well I think the Pats will still get that win but that is typed with a lot less confidence. Two words: Brady. Belichick. Preseason rank: #2.

4. Baltimore Ravens (12-4): The team that has the best chance of ruining another January for Pats fans. I've been expecting the team in black and purple to make a deep playoff run for a few years now. It's still hasn't happened. And the Hall of Fame defense is getting a little old. If the offense can make some plays they will be hard to beat. There is one guy I don't want to see walking into Gillette this month... Terrell Suggs. Preseason rank: #4.

5. San Francisco 49ers (13-3): The Niners will get a bit overshadowed by all the talk about the Pack and the Saints. They shouldn't. They are the dark horse that just might lap the field with their defense. They allowed the second fewest points this season. Patrick Willis is a beast. As is running back Frank Gore. The key will be how does young QB Alex Smith handle the playoff pressure. Preseason rank: #16.

6. Detroit Lions (10-6): Any playoff game that the Detroit Lions are playing in I am watching. This team is entertaining on so many levels. The passing game is explosive. As are the tempers of the head coach and the best defensive player. Big passes. Big penalties. You never know what can happen when the Lions are on the field. Good and bad. Preseason rank: #17.

7. Atlanta Falcons (10-6): The Falcons did not look sharp in their game against New Orleans two weeks ago. Not sharp at all. But the Saints can do that to teams. Atlanta has some talent. Matt Ryan leads a strong passing game and that's balanced with a power running game. The defense makes plays. Atlanta is very strong at home. Unfortunately they won't be having any home playoff games. Preseason rank: #6.

8. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4): The Steelers would be a few rungs higher if not for the small issue of their starting running back and starting quarterback being unable to walk. But Mike Tomlin's Steelers have always been dangerous when wounded. It's the signature of his teams. Tough. But their road through the playoffs will be just a little too tough this time around. Preseason rank: #8.

9. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7): I think Cincy goes into Houston and wins easily. So they get the nod in the rankings. The Bengals started fast this year, running up wins against a group of mediocre teams. Their second half schedule was filled with playoff teams -- and losses. But I was at the Bengals loss at Baltimore in  November and I liked what I saw. The Bengals are a good team that has played some good football but lost to better teams. That changes. Preseason rank: #31.

10. Houston Texans (10-6): The Texans would be higher too if not for the small issue of the team being on its fourth starting QB. If healthy, the Texans would be a major threat. They are still a threat thanks to their defense, but not a major one. The Texans are hoping TJ Yates is healthy enough to play. That's what kind of year it has been for Houston. Hoping TJ Yates can play. Cincy's defense is probably hoping that too. Preseason rank: #9.

11. New York Giants (9-7): The best pass rush in the playoffs. Is that enough to launch Eli on another improbable Super Bowl run? I hope not. But any Tom Coughlin team is dangerous. Any team with little Manning is dangerous. Any team with both Bradshaw and Jacobs at running back is dangerous. Any team with Cruz and Nicks at WR is dangerous. I might have the Giants ranked too low. Preseason rank: #18.

12. Denver Broncos (8-8): I don't have the Broncos ranked too low. That's for sure. What the heck happened to Tim Tebow? Ever since "SNL" did that Jesus skit the team hasn't won a game. The "SNL" jinx? Hmmm... Not surprisingly it didn't take NFL coaches long to start slowing Tebow down. I caught the last quarter of the team's loss to KC. Tebow looked like he had regressed back to his first few weeks. Or maybe the whole offense had. They come into the playoffs on a three-game losing streak. A well-earned losing streak. Preseason rank: #23.

Dishonorable mention:: I've been waiting to write this for two years... The New York Jets. (Sorry Jim). Rex Ryan, Mr. Big Mouth and Bigger Toes, reportedly cried when addressing his players the day after their season ended in flames. Really, there were almost actual flames. Team "captain" Santonio Holmes was benched after getting into an argument in the huddle. LT was his usual back-stabbing self at the end. Ryan cried. Bursting ... into ... flames. Mt. Ryan has already started making his Super Bowl predictions for next year. It was kind of laughable the previous two years after the team lost in the AFC title game. This year, after their train wreck 8-8 finish, it's Stooges funny. Preseason rank: #1. Very funny.

Dan. Oh.

BRADY: He doesn't look too worried.

The Globe's Dan Shaughnessy -- are you sitting down? -- doesn't think the Patriots can win a playoff game this year. (Those who are not surprised to hear this please click the "like" button.)

Clearly wanting the title of "first member of the Sports Blabosphere to say the Pats suck," Shaughnessy wasted no time declaring the playoffs over. Me and my tailgating friends plan on showing up anyways for the first playoff game on the night of January 14th. Actually, we can't wait.

But according to Dan, we are not going to like what we see once the game begins. "Something bad is going to happen at Gillette Stadium before this month is over," he writes. Something bad. (Hopefully not a ban on margaritas). I assume he's talking about the Pats losing a playoff game. He may be right. That's the thing about the NFL. You can have a great regular season (like, say, 13-3) but then have one bad game (heck, one bad quarter) and the season is quickly over. Happens to at least one team every year. Happened to the 14-2 Pats and 14-2 Falcons last year. That's what makes the NFL playoffs so much fun. Each game is huge because there is not the "we'll get 'em tomorrow" attitude you get in the best-of-seven world. That's why football fans get into watching every playoff game. Each one is an event. Each one is huge. A team like the Packers can get hot and roll to a championship. But let's not get all caught up in how much fun playoff football is. Who wants to talk about that when you can talk about how bad the 13-3 Pats are?

Like I said, Dan may be right. The Pats might get knocked out quickly. They are not unbeatable. And the other teams are all good. The Pats will have to play solid, near mistake-free football and even get some luck. That's the way it is no matter what a team's record is or how many passing yards the defense has given up. You know what team was beatable but played solid football and caught some luck? Actually I can think of three. The 2001, 2003, and 2004 Pats. Were those teams better than the 2011 Pats? In many ways yes, in some ways no. What those teams did better than all their competition was make plays when they had to. They gave up plays but got turnovers when they needed. And they caught breaks, lots of them, and took advantage of almost all of them.

Of course in '01 there was the Tuck Rule. And a non hands-to-the-face call in the Super Bowl on a pick-six. But the luck didn't end with that incredible year. Many seem to look at the back-to-back title teams as if they dominated every game. They didn't. In '03 there was a Steve McNair pass tipping off the fingers of Drew Bennett on a fourth-down play that should have been caught and would have sent the game into overtime. The Pats barely escaped the frigid temperatures and then went on to win it all. In '04, the Pats played an average game in the Super Bowl against Philly but made just enough plays to win by a field goal.

That's one of the main positives about the Pats of the last two years. They make a lot of plays. That's one thing the '09 Pats didn't do. And it showed in the blowout loss to the Ravens. Last year and this year the Pats have been among the best in winning the turnover battle. That, combined with a great offense and sound special teams, makes them a real contender. Dan says he thinks the real Patriots aren't the 13-3 team, but instead the team that fell behind early against Denver (and Miami and Buffalo and ...) before, in his words, "the Broncos turned the ball over three times in their own end in the second quarter ..."

Dan talks about those turnovers as if the Denver players just handed the ball to the Pats D and said "Here... you guys need some help." In fact, two of the three turnovers were plays that the Pats D made to turn the momentum in their favor. The D made those plays. The result of players doing what they have learned to do and being in the right position. And then making the play. The first was linebacker Dane Fletcher sniffing out the run, nailing the running back at the line, and knocking the ball loose. The next lucky turnover was caused by defensive end Mark Anderson who is becoming a force to deal with. Anderson slashed through the line and caught Tebow on the option, hitting him in stride and forcing another fumble. A great defensive play. The third turnover was a special teams gift. A gift that Ross Ventrone quickly accepted with the recovery. That's the Ross Ventrone who has been released, signed to the practice squad, activated, released, signed, released, signed ... He's one of the many role players who has played his role well.

Just as important as the plays to create the turnovers were the plays the offense then made to turn those turnovers into 13 points to take over the game. I think the real Pats are the ones that took the best shot of a red-hot Broncos team and then responded, one play at a time. On the road. Under pressure.

Dan can talk about how he doesn't have a good feeling about this team. He doesn't like what he sees. Maybe he needs to look a little closer. Here's what I see. Tom Brady. Wes Welker, Gronk, Hernandez, BenJarvus and Ridley, Branch, Woody, (not Ocho), Waters, Mankins and the rest of the offensive line. Solid young kickers in Zoltan and Gostkowski. And on the statistically challenged defense... Big Vince, Mark Anderson, Mayo, Spikes, Chung, a one-armed but gutsy McCourty, Arrington, Ninko, and Edelman (the new Troy Brown). That's a lot of playmakers.

Oh. and Bill Belichick. The Pats might lose, but it won't be because they aren't a playoff caliber team. In fact, I would say there's just as good a chance that the Pats come out and play a great playoff game as there is that they don't.

But that's just the way I look at it. I'm a fan. Not a Dan.

Fresh start

NEW YEAR, SAME RESULT: 1-0 in 2012.

WEEK 17
Patriots 49, Bills 21 (1/1/'12): Some highlights from another entertaining victory on a 45 degree sunny New Year's Day at Gillette...

Chili and sausages. A cooler full of cold beer. Sweatshirts and hoodies instead of parkas and wool caps. Chung and Spikes back in uniform. A scoreboard update of the Miami D picking off Sanchez. A couple of refreshing margaritas. Another update of the Miami D picking off Sanchez. The Bills breaking out to a 21-0 lead in the first quarter. Bill O'Brien screaming at his entire offense this time.

OK, those last two certainly weren't highlights. But everything that happened in the next three quarters after that was. The Pats scored 49 straight points as the offense that struggled in the first quarter kicked into high gear and the defense that looked lost -- again -- seemed to find itself thanks to the return of #25 and #55. The Pats D is never going to fill one with confidence, but the return of leaders Chung and Spikes sure helps. Too bad Andre Carter isn't still on the field.

The next two weeks the Blabosphere will be buzzing with warnings about how the 13-3 Patriots are not a serious Super Bowl contender because of their slow starts on offense and false starts on defense. Many will predict another one-and-done playoff run. Or a two-and-done. But done before they even get started. Predictions are tough to get right. Just ask Rex Ryan ... again.

Mo, Larry, and  Curly (a.k.a. Borges, Felger, and Shaughnessy) will be leading the chorus I'm sure. They will acknowledge that the Pats have the best offense in the AFC, but they will tell you that's all they have. They will tell you the defense will bring it all crashing down in the playoffs. They may be right. The Pats will either win or lose so it's a 50-50 shot.

But the Patriots will show up in two weeks to face either Cincy, Denver, or Pittsburgh. If they win they are hosting the AFC title game. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have lost their last three playoffs games dating back to the '07 Super Bowl. Brady has not been the reason they lost those games but he was far from his best. He's due to be at his best. If Brady and the offense can be at their best -- very best -- for the next three games, the Pats will raise that fourth Lombardi that they should have had a few years ago.

Now the fun begins.