We need this guy

Quite a turnout

ASSOCIATED PRESS

When my coworker Rich told me on Thursday that the Pats were showing a replay of the AFC Championship game on the big screens at Gillette before today's Super Bowl send-off, I thought "Free admission to Gillette? Replay of Cundiff missing the kick? I might go to that."

When I saw the forecast was sunny and mid 40s, I texted my nephew Pete and we both agreed it was a good way to get our Patriots fix during the Super Bowl bye week. Apparently a lot of people had the same thought.

An estimated 25,000-plus filled Gillette to watch the Pats beat the Ravens again and send the team off to Indy. Another couple of thousand were still stuck in Route 1 traffic waiting to get into the parking lot as Tom Brady made plans for next week's party. I picked Pete up at 10:30 with the expectation of getting to the stadium by 11:30 to catch the end of the replay (wide left!) and listen to a few player speeches. When we hit a solid wall of traffic about two miles north of Gillette it was clear we -- like the Krafts -- had greatly underestimated how many people would attend the rally.

If you invite people to come to your stadium for free on a 40 degree winter day, you better be prepared for a large turnout. The Krafts weren't prepared. Which is unusual. Pete and I inched our way into the lot right around noon, the 40-minute drive taking 90 minutes. We never did get to see Cundiff miss that kick again. There were almost no state police on the road directing the cars and the traffic lights continued to turn green, red, green, red as if it were a normal shopping Sunday at Patriot Place. Then we were directed to park over near the Bass Pro Shop only to find that all of the gates were closed but one -- on the opposite side of the stadium. We sprinted our way through the crowd and up the ramps as the Minutemen fired off a volley or two as the players walked on to the field.

The half of the stadium that the stage was facing was completely full so we headed under the lighthouse over to the other side that was empty. "You can't sit on that side," one of the Gillette staff told us. "The stage is on the other side." We kept going because what difference does it make where the stage is facing? We can see most of it on the video screens. We just want a seat. But as we got over to the other side there were barriers blocking off all the empty sections. Parents with little children were walking in the opposite direction and heading back down the ramp because there were no seats even though there were still thousands of seats sitting empty.

A young boy in a Brady jersey walked past us holding the hand of his clearly agitated father. "I'm never coming back here again!" the boy, probably around 6, said to his Dad. "I'm never watching a game here again."

The turnout by the fans was as great as it was surprising. But the failure of the Krafts to open up more sections so all the parents who brought their children could get a look at the players was as surprising as it was disappointing. Maybe you can't do anything about the traffic, but you can open up all the gates to your stadium and make sure all your fans have a place to sit.

If there is another party next week, they should stick with the duck boat parade. That works better.

Although with the lines winding outside all the Patriot Place restaurants when the rally ended (two hour waits), the Krafts have to be thinking they should do this kind of thing more often. Maybe they'll be better prepared next time.

Fashion adjustment

The first good news came out of the Pats camp this week. No. Not that Gronk's ankle sprain is feeling better. Although hopefully that is the case. No. The good news -- the really good news -- is that coach Bill Belichick, a.k.a. the Hooded One, will NOT be wearing the red hoodie that he donned in that last Super Bowl against the NY Giants.

I remember my family gathering at my parent's house in February of '08 as we did for the three previous Super Bowls. (All victories). We had the same foods. Same drinks. Same $2 Super Bowl squares pool. Same seats on the couch. Everything had to be the same. And then the Pats walked out on to the field in Arizona to complete their perfect season and there was a picture of Belichick walking on the sideline in his hoodie. But not his usual tattered gray hoodie. It was some new, bright red hoodie.

"What the hell is he wearing?" all 12 of us said at the same time. Apparently Belichick forgot that you couldn't do anything differently from the previous three Super Bowls. (All victories.) I'm not really superstitious. But even I know you don't break out a new, bright red hoodie for the Super Bowl. Every time Brady got sacked or something else bad happened, which was often, someone in the room would yell "Get rid of that hoodie!" Well, it took four years. But the red hoodie is gone.

This is what I'm expecting to see come next Sunday...

Time to kill

When the team you root for is in the Super Bowl, the first of the two weeks before kickoff is a long week. There's a lot of chatter in the blabosphere but not a lot of information or analysis. There's lots of dead time. Time for one's mind to wander...

• It's not good when the NFL Network shows their top five plays from last weekend's championship games and the two that are from the Pats-Ravens game is the pick by the Ravens in the end zone and the great touchdown catch and run by the Ravens' Torrey Smith. Not one good Pats play. They were really lucky to get out of there with a victory.
• I heard Jim Irsay, owner of the Colts, say that he was disappointed that his soon-to-be-former franchise quarterback spoke out about his frustration with all the staff changes since the team's impressive 2-12 season ended. "I don't think it's in the best interest to paint the horseshoe in a negative light. The horseshoe always comes first." The horseshoe? I could understand if he said "the team" always comes first. Or "the franchise." Or "all my millions." Something like that. But the horseshoe? And people hate Belichick? And that kind of talk coming from the guy whose family packed up the horseshoe in the middle of the night and drove it out of its sacred Baltimore and took it to Indianapolis. Ya, the horseshoe comes first... if it's wrapped in money.
• Watching a replay of the Week 9 game between the Pats and the Giants at Gillette did not fill me with confidence. With just two minutes to go in the third quarter the Patriots offense had three points and just as many bad turnovers. Brady, to quote him, "sucked." The offense had more punts than first downs. It's not pretty to watch. And then Brady, Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez caught fire and the Pats would score 17 points in the final quarter to take a lead with just more than a minute to play. Then little Manning attacked our shaky defense and pulled out another last-second victory. I can't take another one of those.
• The Jets implosion just keeps getting better and better. After team "leader" LT blamed everyone else for the Jets missing the playoffs amid a storm of tantrums and arguments, actual leader Darrelle Revis came out and said that coach Rex Ryan had no idea of the turmoil that was bubbling through the locker room all year. The coach who keeps predicting he's so good he will take his team to every Super Bowl played on this planet had no idea that his players were abandoning ship? Well, there might be another ring on Belichick's hand that he didn't come to NY to kiss.
• The Globe's Greg Bedard, one of the best football writers the city has had in years, says that people are being too hard on Brady's AFC title game performance. Two picks (should have been three), no touchdown passes. He said Brady got the job done when he had too. True enough. But I think he's going a little too easy on #12. Brady has passed Neely as the player I have had the most fun watching, but it hasn't been that much fun in the playoffs the last few years. And it's not just because things come harder and defenses get better in the playoffs. Brady made several unforced errors last week. He wouldn't have made it through the first round at the Australian Open. I'm counting on that not happening two games in a row.

When's kickoff?

Championship Sunday

A great tailgate... an even better AFC Championship victory... in photos. Thanks Mary. Great job.

Home sweet home

GARY HIGGINS/THE PATRIOT LEDGER

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Patriots 23, Ravens 20 (1/22/'12): Don't let anyone tell you that the Pats don't have a strong home-field advantage. Not after yesterday's AFC title game.

My throat is a little sore from yelling for three straight hours (sorry woman in front of me). My legs are a little tired from standing from 10:30 in the morning till 8:30 at night. In the parking lot and inside Gillette, I didn't sit in my seat once. Not too many people did yesterday. It was that kind of a day. So the next time the fans are enjoying their buzz as the Pats are playing the mediocre Redskins on a beautiful September afternoon, the Sports Blabosphere can give all this "the crowd at Gillette is spoiled and lame" stuff a rest.

The crowd arrived with a playoff energy and helped set the tone for the game early on. That's an even bigger accomplishment when you consider most of us were still trying to get the sound of Steven Tyler singing the national anthem out of our heads. Or maybe that's why the crowd was so loud. We were trying to drown out the screech of "... home of the brave!"

The defense then set the tone on the first play of the game. The Ravens -- like they did to start their playoff romp two years ago -- handed the ball to Ray Rice. Two years ago Rice took the ball to the house. This time he ran into one. Brandon Deaderick and the rest of the D line. It was one play but it was a statement by the defense. "This isn't 2009." The Ravens went three and out. The Pats went three and out. The Ravens went three and out. It became clear to everyone in the crowd that points were going to be of a premium and that every play -- offense and defense -- was huge. The crowd stood as one for every play and the defense seemed to feed off of it.

It was a great game to be at because of that. Every play was preceded by anticipation. It felt like the Pats were always one big play on offense away from taking the game over. But Brady just couldn't seem to get that play. On the other side of the ball, the defense kept Rice and the Raven running game bottled up. The teams traded field goals near the end of the first quarter. Stalemate. The biggest play to that point was a play not made. The Pats drove down to the Ravens 22-yard line and on second down Gronk shed a block at the line and broke free down the middle. The whole stadium saw him rumbling wide open towards the goal line. Brady threw a bullet Gronk's way but he missed him by a few too many yards. A Gronk touchdown spike would have sent Gillette into a frenzy. Instead of a spike there was just a loud groan. The first of several misses/mistakes by Brady that kept the game closer than it could have been.

That made for a true nail-biting finish.

The half ended with the Pats up 13-10. Me, Mark, Toph, and Matt loaded up on a round of margaritas and beers. One half. Four guys. Eight drinks. We knew we wouldn't want to miss a play in the second half. With four minutes to go in the third quarter the lead was 16-10 but the Ravens were driving inside the Pats' 30. Flacco threw a quick out to Torrey Smith on a 3rd-and-3. Sterling Moore closed on Smith and had a chance to tackle him short of the first down. But Smith spun around and Moore missed the tackle, allowing him to race down the far sideline for a touchdown. Ravens 17-16.

Then the fun really started.

Woody fielded the kickoff in his end zone and found some daylight, but as he crossed the 30 he was hit and lost the ball. The Ravens pounced on it. First down Baltimore at the Pats' 28.

"Oh no," I said to Mark. I would say that a few more times.

The defense made a big stand, with Ninko and Ihedigbo sacking Flacco on third down from the Pats 8-yard line. Billy Cundiff came in and hit a 39-yarder and as the third quarter expired the Pats were suddenly down 20-16. Woodhead took the kickoff in his end zone and -- again -- took it out. He made a great return, setting the Pats up at their own 37. Great response to his fumble. It was time for Brady and the offense to respond as well. He hit Gronk for a big gain to the Baltimore 40. The crowd roared with encouragement till we all noticed that Gronk wasn't getting up. He stayed on the field after being tackled, twisting on the ground in obvious pain. He got up and started limping to the sideline as the stadium chanted "Gronk! Gronk! Gronk!"

"I think he's fine," I said. Then the replay showed Gronk's left ankle getting badly twisted on the tackle. "Oh, no. Maybe not." The Pats are down, Gronk is out. What to do? That's right. Throw the ball to Welker. #83 made a couple of big plays to keep the drive alive and the Pats moved the ball down to the 1-yard line on a 1st-and-goal run by Woody. Brady then got stuffed on the sneak (after review) and then BenJarvus was stuffed on third down. Fourth and goal, down by four, with less than twelve minutes left in the AFC Championship.

Gronk came back on the field to the roar of the crowd. But the biggest play of the year wasn't going to Gronk. Or Welker. Or Hernandez. Nope. Brady took the snap and lunged over the top of the pack, breaking the goal line just before Ray Lewis came in and tried to break his back. Touchdown! Brady got up, spiked the ball, and turned to the crowd with a fist-pump and a roar. We all roared back. Pats 23-20.

"Ten minutes to the Super Bowl," Toph and I said at the same time. What a ten minutes it was.

Flacco led the Ravens to the Pats' 46 with just more than seven minutes to play. First and 10. The Ravens were pounding the ball. The much, much, much-maligned Pats D looked like it was about to bend and break once again. Flacco dropped back to pass, fired a dart across the middle to the tight end ... intercepted! Brandon Spikes, one of the good draft picks on defense from the past few years, stepped in front of the pass, snagged it with one hand, and took the ball back to midfield. Gillette erupted. It was the biggest defensive play for the Pats in years. The music blasted and everyone celebrated. "Let's eat up some clock," Mark said. Ya. Let's eat up some clock. The crowd was still high-fiving the pick when Brady took the snap on first down. He took a deep drop and turned and fired a bomb right down the middle of the field. Did Randy Moss just join the team? Who's he throwing a bomb too? Matthew Slater. The ball was tipped by the safety Pollard (yes, that one) and intercepted in the end zone by Ravens rookie Smith. Slater fell down or something. He was nowhere in the picture. Smith got up and took the ball back to the Raven 37-yard line because all the Patriots players -- like the crowd -- were too stunned to react.

"Oh no."

One second the Pats seemed like they had made the play to put the game away. The next, the Ravens were at midfield and driving with under five minutes left to play.

"Oh no."

The Ravens had a 3rd-and-3 at the Pats 30 with 3:30 to go. The ball was going to Ray Rice. Everyone knew it. Two years ago it didn't matter that everyone knew it. He was getting the first down. This defense is different. Maybe not  much better. But different. Rice took the handoff on a draw (bad call) and was met instantly by Big Vince. No gain. Fourth down. Baltimore decided to go for it instead of trying a 50-yard field goal to tie. Big Vince took matters into his own hands again and bulled his way through his man and right at Flacco, forcing a throw out of bounds.

Pats ball with under three minutes to go. One first down and the Ravens are on life support. Two first downs and they are done. Brady hit Branch for 7 yards but Bennie lost a yard on second as the two minute warning hit. People in the crowd just looked at each other without a word. We were all thinking the same thing. It was third and four at the Pats' 39. I watched as Hernandez came open right at the first down mark, right in front of me. Brady threw a perfect strike to Hernandez's outside shoulder away from the safety. But that safety was Ed Reed. The best to ever play the position. Reed closed quickly and somehow undercut the pass and was just able to deflect it away. Fourth down. Punt.

The Ravens are going to get the ball back. "Oh no."

Zoltan hit a solid 44-yard punt, forcing Baltimore to start from its own 21. The way the D was playing I wasn't worried. Throughout the ups and downs of the game I never felt like that Pats would lose. That feeling changed a few plays later when Flacco hit Bolden on 3rd-and-1 at midfield and Boldin danced down the sideline all the way to the Pats' 23 with just 49 seconds to play. "The Pats could lose this game," I thought for the first time. Two plays later I thought they had.

The Ravens had a 2nd-and-1 just inside the 15 with now just 29 seconds left. At least that's what it said on the field. On the scoreboard it read first down. Not too many people noticed. Things were happening so fast it was tough to digest but I remember Matt saying "Watch out for a shot at the end zone here" just as Flacco let the ball go towards the right corner of the end zone. The play was across the field from where we were sitting and all I could see was the ball disappear behind two Pats defenders and what looked like right into the lap of the Ravens' receiver.

"Oh no." There was an audible gasp throughout the stadium. Touchdown Baltimore? "Oh no." Then I saw the ball rolling on the ground and the ref waiving his arms for an incomplete pass. I looked at the replay and saw that Sterling Moore -- the goat on the Ravens' touchdown -- had knocked the ball loose at the last possible second. It was a great play. And a lucky one.

Third down. That's what the down marker on the field said. But the scoreboard now only read second down. "What down is it?" I asked Mark. "Third," he said pointing to the marker. "The scoreboard has it as second," I said. "That's wrong. Definitely third. We just have to stop them here."

Flacco took the snap and had to scramble. Ninko made a dash for him, forcing a hasty throw that Moore knocked to the ground. Fourth down. Third if you -- like Billy Cundiff -- use the scoreboard to keep track of what down it is.

Me, Mark, Toph, and Matt all looked at each other. Overtime.

The crowd was busy talking about the new overtime rules as the Ravens set up for the game-tying 32-yarder. There wasn't any of the "this is a tough kick" talk that precedes kicks of 45 yards or kicks in bad weather. This one was automatic. We were headed to overtime.

Cundiff came running out on the field with only about 12 seconds left on the play clock. A few people -- in Ravens' jerseys -- started calling for a timeout. I looked at Belichick to see if he was going to try to ice the kicker. He wasn't. The ball was snapped and the kick just went straight... to the far left of the stadium.

No good! The Pats win! The stadium rocked and rolled as the Ravens walked stunned off the field. I may have yelled "See ya next year T Sizzle!" or something like that. Confetti started to fly.

Mark looked at me.

"They're in the Super Bowl! Again!"

 

Final four

Championship weekend. The Patriots are back in it. All is -- temporarily -- right with the football world.

The title games always have potential to go down in NFL history. This year's games really have that potential. In the AFC it's the #1 (Pats) vs. #2 (Ravens). A classic offense against defense matchup. In the NFC it's #4 (Giants) vs. #2 (Niners). The Saints and the Packers -- the two teams I thought would be playing -- and their explosive offenses are gone. Left standing are two defensive-centered teams. It should be old-school football at its best.

The Globe's Chris Gasper says the Pats are left with three pretty easy teams standing between them and their fourth Lombardi. "This playoff field is as soft as a pair of Brady's UGG boots." Soft? The Ravens, Niners, and Giants? Hmmm. The Ravens were clearly the biggest threat to the Pats in the AFC all season. That's why they are the #2 seed. They are anything but soft. And here they come. And on the other side, either the Niners or Giants would be a huge challenge. Especially the battle-tested Giants. No elite QBs left? Tell that to Eli.

They say defenses win championships. If that's the case the Pats don't stand a chance against any of the three other teams in the final four. I just don't think that really is the case anymore. Just ask the Colts, Saints, and Packers ... all offensive-minded champions in the past few years.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Baltimore (13-4) at New England (14-3): A win Sunday at Gillette -- now matter how ugly -- will be one of the biggest in the Belichick-Brady era. Why? Because the Ravens pose a challenge on the level of the Colts and the Steelers in '03 and '04. The Patriots haven't won a playoff game of this level of difficulty in many years. They've won some big games -- last week's playoff blowout for instance -- but they haven't won a playoff game against a great team in many years. It feels like it's time. But that's not enough against the team that is as loud as its uniforms.

The Ravens are a very good defense. They were a great defense, but age is showing. I've seen many Ravens games during the past few years when the veteran D looked gassed in the fourth quarter, literally gasping for air. They were gasping last week against Houston till TJ Yates resuscitated them with a few very bad throws. Can the Ravens D slow down Brady, Gronk, Welker and the gang? Lots of talk has been made about how the Pats haven't played many winning teams this season. Well, the vaunted Baltimore D has only faced two top 10 offenses this year. Two. How did they do? They shut down San Fran but got smoked by Phillip Rivers and the Chargers. Two years ago the Ravens D caused havoc all over the Gillette field. The Pats didn't have Welker, Gronk, Hernandez, or Branch that day. If the line can keep Suggs off of Brady then things should be different this time. That's a big if.

Then there is the Pats defense. Oh, the Pats defense. They held the league's best rushing attack in check last week and didn't give up much in the air either. There were no late garbage-time drives allowed. No bad penalties. Not too many missed tackles. All good signs. They have enough playmakers (Wilfork, Anderson, Mayo, Spikes, Chung) to get turnovers, something they did very well again this year. Even McCourty is looking better now that he's playing some safety. The Ravens offense doesn't offer much more of a challenge than the Tebow attack of Denver. It's an offense the Pats D should be able to hold below 30 points. That should be good enough.

The Pats looked locked and loaded against the Broncos. But for many of the Broncos it was their first look at the big stage of an NFL road playoff game. They were not ready. The Ravens will be ready. It should make for a great battle. The game will come down to the same two factors evenly-matched playoff games always come down to: protecting the ball and tackling. The basics. The Pats have not taken care of the basics in the playoffs the last two years. This time they will.

PICK: Patriots 27, Ravens 17

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
New York (11-7) at San Francisco (14-3): Yes, yes. It feels like '07 all over again. Little Manning making improbable throws and his receivers making even more improbable catches. (A Hail Mary touchdown to end the half in Green Bay?) Old man Coughlin standing there with his face freezing off. The Giants pass rush destroying everything in its path. Even though the Giants finished the regular season at an unimpressive 9-7, they are better all around than that title team. But I don't think they make it to the Super Bowl this time. Why? Because Brett Favre won't be on the other side of the field to hand the G-Men the game with his patented stupid interception.

The red-hot, upstart Giants are the story right now. But it's the Niners who have been quietly winning games all year. While the NFC spotlight shined on the defending champs and their run at a 16-0 season, or the brash Lions and their nasty D, or the revived Saints and their record-setting offense, Jim Harbaugh's Niners have been on a workman-like march towards the Super Bowl. Workman-like. Just like their rookie coach who will be the unanimous coach of the year. The Niners don't do anything flashy. They pound Frank Gore on offense and sprinkle in enough Alex Smith passes. Tight end Vernon Davis has returned to stud status. It's your basic "here we come, try to stop us" approach. On defense the Niners are a beast. They were first against the run, fourth against the pass, and held opponents to just more than 14 points per game. They feature LB Patrick Willis and the Smith brothers (Justin and Aldon. They're not really brothers). The Niners forced five turnovers last week against New Orleans. They will need to do that again.

Speaking of turnovers, the Giants D forced four last week against Green Bay. They bring the fearsome foursome of Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck, Jason Pierre-Paul, and Dave Tollefson. They are all about the pass rush. They have been since '07. The key battle will be the Niners offensive line vs. the Giants defensive line. If San Fran can't hold 'em back it's going to be a long day for Mr. Gore and Mr. Smith. A very long day.

And if the Niners have trouble scoring that will be trouble because the Giants offense has been a surprise this season. Little Manning started the year saying he should be considered an elite quarterback ... eliciting a lot of snickering. Then he went out and proved that he was right. Receivers Cruz, Nicks, and Manningham give little Manning as good a set of weapons as there are in the league. Add to that bruisers Jacobs and Bradshaw and the Giants can flash you or smash you. Whatever works.

I watched the replay of the Niners-Saints game and the hitting was brutal. It was great playoff football. The hitting in this one should go to 11. I like the Niners in a game like that.

PICK: Niners 24, Giants 21

Game films

OK, I've actually watched  movies that were not made in the 1970s. Here's one. "Wedding Crashers." Vince Vaughn at his best. Classic Christopher Walken performance. And one of the funniest football scenes ever filmed.

It's a great look at both backyard football and eccentric, dysfunctional upper class families. Both are so much fun to watch. It's the best touch football scene in movie history along with the one from "The Big Chill.'' One has Rachel McAdams, the other has Meg Tilly. That's a toss-up.

Bradley Cooper became a star in this scene. Unfortunately I couldn't find a clip that had the entire football game so here's the best line from the movie uttered by one of the funniest actors I've seen. Crabcakes and football. That's what Maryland does. OK, Ravenstown, Md. Let's see what you've got.

Ten years after

TALES FROM THE TAILGATE
Patriots 16, Raiders 13 OT (1/19/'02): Today is the tenth anniversary of the greatest day in the history of Foxborough, Massachusetts -- a.k.a. KraftWorld.

The tenth anniversary of the greatest event I was fortunate enough to have a ticket for. (Sorry Bono. Sorry Bruce).

No chronicle of the past 25 years of tailgating would be complete without the last game ever played at Foxboro Stadium. Pats' fans know it as "The Snow Bowl." Most other football fans know it as "The Tuck Rule Game.'' Raiders' fans know it as the "Game We Got Screwed!" This was the start of an incredible change in the team's fortunes and when Mark and I arrived in the lot that day ten years ago we had no idea how different being a Patriots fan was about to become.

The team, in its second year with Bill Belichick as head coach, had won eight of their last nine games of the regular season -- often in fantastical fashion -- to unexpectedly win their division and qualify for the playoffs. And with sixth-round draft pick Tom Brady leading the way. You don't get more famous than Brady is right now. GQ cover boy. Gisele. Hair. But back in the winter of '02 he was just some little-known skinny guy from Michigan who came off the bench for an injured Bledsoe in Week 2. And he hasn't left the field since. I can still hear my friend Shep yelling "Tom Bra-dy! Yes! Tom Bra-dy!" with a mix of delight and disbelief game after glorious game.

The Raiders -- among the teams Pats fans love to hate the most -- won their wild-card game, sending the silver and black to Foxborough. The two teams had staged some memorable playoff games before. The forecast leading up to the division-round playoff clash was for snow. Possibly heavy. And the game was pushed back to 8 p.m. for television -- when the storm was supposed to be at its height. I remember as a kid sitting on my couch under a pile of blankets drinking hot chocolate watching playoff games from Baltimore, Cleveland, or Green Bay in driving snowstorms and thinking how great it would be to go to one of those games.

It lived up to my imagination.

Mark and I arrived at the lot around 4 p.m. under a gray but snowless sky. You could feel the anticipation for the game -- and the storm. We kicked into set-up mode with the tables, chairs, coolers, and grills and were sitting there with our first drink in hand as Shep joined us. "Maybe the snow's gonna miss us," Shep said. No sooner had those words left his mouth than the first flakes started falling. And they kept falling. Within a half hour everything was coated in snow and shortly after that we were pretty much in white-out conditions. It could not have been more fun.

There were large mounds of dirt in the parking lot from the nearby construction of the new stadium. Soon those mounds were covered in snow and men and women were sledding down them (without sleds) like school kids on a snow day. After a while the snow became worn down and it was more dirt than snow ... but that didn't stop the sledding. And the laughing. It was a great atmosphere. Billy and Bergs got stuck in the traffic caused by the storm and arrived later than their usual six hours before the game. But it did not take them long to catch up in the celebrating. Billy in particular made quick work of his Raspberry-flavored Stolis (some tailgates would ban a guy for bringing fruit-flavored booze but we're a tolerant crowd). Maybe too quick. By the time we were getting ready to make our way through the snow to the stadium he was more unsteady than usual. But there was a big playoff game to see so why worry about that? As we walked away from our parking space I made my usual mental note of landmarks and rows to remember where the car was.

We got to our seats and I turned and looked at the field. For some reason I was expecting to see a mostly plowed field with some light snow cover. It was my first snow game so what did I know? Not much. The field was covered in three inches of snow with the only spots of green being long squiggly lines where the grounds crew had used leaf blowers to clear away the yard lines. "This is gonna be great!" Mark said as we cleared the snow off our aluminum bench. And great it was.

The game was close the whole way with both teams struggling to make any plays in the snow. Brady was getting knocked around and the offense couldn't get going. The Raiders took a 7-0 lead into halftime. The crowd was covered in snow and quietly concerned. We loaded up on beers for the second half and stood there in the cold and snow drinking and talking about what the Pats should do to get on the scoreboard. It's too hard to pass. Brady is getting killed. They should run more. That was the conclusion we came to. It seems that in the Pats' locker room they came to a different conclusion (maybe because they weren't drinking). Brady and the Pats came out throwing. Brady ended up throwing 52 times in the game. 52! That's a lot for a dry, sunny day. It's crazy for a blizzard.

The Pats trailed 13-3 entering the fourth quarter but they were moving the ball. Brady completed nine straight passes to lead them inside the 10-yard line. He dropped back to pass but there were no open receivers. So, just like he had all year, he found a way to make a play. He took off for the end zone, putting a move on a Raider defender who slipped in the snow, and dived across the goal line. Touchdown! Pats are back in it! Brady staggered to his feet and slammed the ball to the ground and he followed it, tumbling head-over-heels into the snow. All I remember is jumping out into the aisle, slipping, and sliding down about five steps. Laughing all the way. Just like Brady.

The Pats got the ball back trailing by three with just a few minutes left in the game. One more score and they would go to the AFC title game. "We're winning this game," Bergs said. Of course he always says that but this time I totally agreed with him. The Pats were winning this game. They moved across midfield with just under two minutes to go. Brady dropped back one more time to pass. He raised his arm. Raider cornerback Charles Woodson came out of the snow and nailed him. The ball fell out of Brady's hand and for a few eternal seconds bobbled along the frosty turf. A Raider fell on it and the whistle blew. Raiders' ball. Brady got up and looked dazed. We were all dazed. A Raider took the ball and kicked it high into the air to punctuate the moment. What just happened? Fumble? The Raiders began celebrating in the snow. The fans stood there in silence, all thinking the same thing. "We lost? How could that happen? Not this time. Not with Brady."

And then the replay flashed on the not-so-big scoreboard screen. "Hold on!" Bergs said. "That could be an incomplete pass." Notice that he didn't say "That was an incomplete pass!" He said it could be. That's the beauty of replay. Anything is possible. By the 10th replay the crowd was convinced it was an incomplete pass. Just as Brady was hit his arm was moving forward to pass and then he started to "tuck" the ball back into his body. A tuck looks just like the motion of a forward pass. Although it clearly isn't. But rules are rules. As the crowd waited nervously to hear if the play would be reversed, "In the Air Tonight" by Phil Collins played over the loudspeakers. It was the perfect soundtrack. The ref walked to the middle of the field and began " After reviewing the play, the quarterback's arm was going forward..." I couldn't hear the rest above the roar of the crowd. I'm not sure if he explained the "tuck rule" or not. I didn't care.


The old stadium shook as the fans began stomping on the aluminum benches. The Pats were alive again. "We're winning this game!" Bergs yelled. Now I was sure of it. The Pats drove the ball into field goal position, with Brady and the receivers making a few more great plays. Adam Vinatieri walked calmly onto the field with 27 seconds left. Everything seemed peaceful in the swirling snow. A 45-yard field goal in horrible conditions. Is it possible? We all looked around at each other nervously. Will this surprisingly fantastic season come to an end right here?

The ball was snapped. Vinatieri swung his leg and as the ball passed over the line of scrimmage it began wobbling. It looked bad. I dropped my head thinking it was going to be short. The next thing I remember I was at the bottom of a pile of Mark, Bergs, Toph, Shep, and what seemed like the entire 309 section. Maybe it was good? It was! The kick (as I saw on the replay) just made its way over the crossbar and the game was tied. It's the greatest kick in NFL history. Period. Vinatieri would make his second memorable kick not too long after that. This one a 23-yarder with eight minutes to go in overtime. The last game at the stadium that saw so many heartbreaks ended with one of the most memorable games in NFL history. And this time my team won. I stood there as the stands emptied out and took one last look at the place where I had made a lot of lifelong friends and memories. Like the old Garden, the place was a pit and sometimes I miss it.

Heading into the parking lot I remembered that it had been snowing hard the last four hours. Every car looked the same. Every row looked the same. Everything looked the same. So much for my mental notes. Where the hell are we parked? "I think we're over by that dirt pile," Mark said. "Or maybe that one. Or that one?" Me, Mark, and thousands of lost souls wandered around the lot looking for our cars. Billy had brought a guy he called Cousin Benny with him. Cousin Benny was a huge Raiders fan. I'm not sure if Cousin Benny was actually Billy's cousin. Cousin Benny was among those lost souls. It was his first time at a Patriots game. He got separated from us in the post-game celebration and started wandering down Route 1 looking for the south lot we were in. Trouble was... he was walking north. For about two miles. By the time some stranger finally helped Benny figure out he was going in the wrong direction we were all long gone. I haven't seen him since. Whenever I'm driving near the stadium I still keep an eye out for Cousin Benny.

Mark and I finally found where we parked. Bergs was already there when we arrived. And Shep. But no Billy. Where was Billy? "You'll never believe it," Bergs said. Turns out Billy felt sick in the first quarter and walked outside the stadium to get some air. At an outdoor stadium. And he couldn't get back in. So he went back to his car and turned the game on the radio and "fell asleep." That's passed out to you and me. "When I finally found the car," Bergs said. "It was locked. I scraped away the snow and could see Billy sleeping in there." Bergs knocked and knocked and finally woke Billy up. He opened his eyes and rolled down the window. "What happened?'' he asked. "Did they win? Was it a good game?" Yes, Billy. It was a really good game.

The first in what would be a decade of really good games.

I came across this video from the tuck rule moment... it is just like I remember it.


     

That's the ticket

Forecast for Sunday: Mostly sunny, 40 degrees. Light breeze. Sounds like perfect passing weather for the guy on the front of the ticket.

Talk the talk

You very rarely see Bill Belichick doing anything but coaching during games. He makes an exception when it comes to the Baltimore Ravens. Derrick Mason -- the target of Belichick's trash talk here -- doesn't play for the Ravens these days. He's at home with Rex Ryan watching the playoffs. But that doesn't mean there won't be a lot of talk coming out of Baltimore this week. If there's one team that talks as much as Mt. Ryan's Jets it's Ray Lewis's Ravens. Difference is the Ravens can back the talk up. It should make for an entertaining conference championship week.

Here they come

It's the Ravens vs. the Patriots in the AFC title game next Sunday at Gillette. Not time just yet to pack away the tailgating supplies. Not just yet.

These two teams have been on a collision course for this moment since 2007 when the Pats stayed perfect (momentarily) by stealing a game in Baltimore. The Ravens still hold a grudge even though they got revenge in the playoffs two years ago. That's just the way it is when it comes to the Ravens. Ray Lewis believes they are the dominant team of the last decade. They've  been very good -- no doubt. But every time they have their mirror-mirror moment it's Tom Brady and his three rings that reflects back at them. Terrell Suggs likes to say things like "I hate Tom Brady." The Patriots are kind of an obsession for the team in purple and black.

As epic as those Pats-Colts games were in '03 and '04. This one is bigger. This is smash-mouth vs. high-octane. I was hoping I wouldn't see Suggs walking into Gillette. I'm pretty sure Tom Brady was hoping the same thing.

Full gallop

MICHAEL IVINS/US PRESWIRE

DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF GAME
Patriots 45, Broncos 10 (1/14/'12): The conversation around all the campfires in the parking lot before yesterday's playoff game focused on two topics: the cold weather and the Pats' postseason cold streak.

Neither proved to be a problem.

The enchanted forest lot across from the Bass Pro Shop began filling up about 3 p.m., five-plus hours before kickoff. I was coming from the north while my friends Mark and Bergs and were coming from the south. The plan was to get into the lot and then call each other. I pulled into an open spot in the very back of the forest and Bergs stepped out of the car next to me. It was a good omen.

The fire pit was quickly roaring in anticipation of the eight-layer cold. By the time Shep and Matt arrived a half-hour later I was tailgating in just a T-shirt, jersey, and hoodie. The beers were cold but my feet weren't. And the sun was shining bright. It was a good omen. The fun was enhanced by a round of Bloody Marys -- and the three women they arrived with (thanks Amy, Roxanne, and Frances).

A few cups of chili and rice, some flank steak, and a few trays of wings kept things warm as the the sun went down. Body temperatures began to drop as game time neared and the wind-chill hit single digits. We got in early to avoid getting stuck in the usual logjam at the gates and stood in the cold watching Mr. Kraft and Jon Bon Jovi (sporting a very sharp red scarf) schmooze on the field before the game. My feet were starting to get a little cold and a round of margaritas and beers didn't help much. Then Tom Brady and the offense warmed the Gillette crowd up -- in a hurry.

After witnessing the last two seasons end in great disappointment at home, the fired-up crowd was clearly looking for some good omens early. That came four plays into the game when tight end Aaron Hernandez lined up as a running back and busted a 43-yard run down to the Denver 7-yard line. "We steal coaches and run tight ends out of the backfield! We can't be stopped!," one of the guys behind us yelled, referring to Belichick signing former Broncos' head coach Josh McDaniels this week.

One play later Brady hit Wes Welker for a touchdown and the temperature in the stadium rose a good five degrees. Besides giving up a ridiculous amount of yards on defense, the Pats' biggest problem lately had been getting off to slow starts. Another concern that proved not to be a problem. Brady got the ball back and led another fast scoring drive, this time ending with Gronk making a great diving catch at the side of the end zone. Pats 14-0 just ten minutes into the game. The crowd was on its feet and stayed that way throughout the whole offensive show. When Brady hit Branch for a 61-yard score with just more than two minutes to play in the half, the crowd went into celebration mode. When he and Gronk connected again with just nine seconds to go the crowd began looking ahead to the AFC title game. At Gillette. Brady threw a record five touchdowns in the first half while the defense gave Tim Tebow all kinds of trouble.

The deservedly-maligned  D kept the Denver quarterback from running all over the field and he wasn't able to recreate his passing performance from last week's upset against the Steelers. Tebow was held to just 136 very-ineffective passing yards and -- impressively -- only 13 yards rushing. The Pats got to Tebow for five sacks while also stuffing the league's best running game. It was an impressive performance.

The chants of "Teee-bow! Teeee-bow!" echoed through Gillette. The crowd hadn't been that fired up since the days of chanting "Paaaay-ton! Paaaay-ton!"

My hand was sore by the time I got back to the parking lot from all the high-fiving with strangers after the game. My throat was sore from all the yelling.

That's how you know it was a great game.

Injured ribs

Bill Belichick's weekly press conferences are a source of great annoyance for the local sports media. They are a source of great satisfaction for Pats fans. At least the ones who prefer their coaches to just coach and not talk. (Which I think would now include most Jets fans).

I reported to my group of friends that due to a dead furnace (of course it happens before the coldest weekend of the winter) and the time spent dealing with that, the short ribs I was planning to bring to Saturday's playoff game are now listed as "doubtful."

Apparently the tailgate menu became a topic at today's press conference and on the injury report. (Courtesy of Matt Shepherd.)

Reporter: "Coach. Word is that there may not be any short ribs at the tailgate Saturday. And that Billy will not be bringing his array of seafood and things wrapped in bacon. How does that change the tailgate game plan?"

Belichick: “The food that is ready to eat at the tailgate is the food we will eat. I’m not a chef so I can’t really comment on what will be ready. I’m not going to worry about menu changes I can’t control. Whatever food puts us in the best position to enjoy the tailgate is what we’ll eat”


INJURY REPORT (1/13/'12)

Out:
-- Billy Brogno (court order).
-- Scallops wrapped in bacon (coach's decision).
Doubtful:
-- Short ribs (non-football injury).
Questionable:
-- Grappa (esophagus, stomach).


Everyone else fully participated in practice. There is an open roster spot to promote someone off the practice squad if need be. Could be hot dogs, hamburgers, sausages, or kelly dogs

Long division

It's round two of the NFL playoffs. The divisional round. The four best regular season teams (rewarded with a week off) against the four teams coming out of wild-card weekend with some serious momentum. The winners go to the conference title games. It's the best weekend of the season.

The Patriots have played in many divisional games over the years. Their first playoff game in 1963 against Buffalo was a divisional-round game. Pats won that one 26-8. In 1976, the Pats were robbed in Oakland. It was the first time I cried over my team losing. (I was 14). Two years later the Pats were hosting a divisional game against Bum Phillips and the Houston Oilers. Unfortunately, in the week leading up to the game Pats' head coach Chuck Fairbanks announced he was leaving to coach the University of Colorado and team owner Billy Sullivan suspended him. The Pats got crushed 31-14. And there was last year's divisional-round loss to the Jets. A game I'd like to forget I was at.

The divisional round is also the home to some of the team's best playoff victories. In '97 there was the Fog Bowl against the Steelers. The Pats recorded their first home playoff victory in franchise history with the Tuna as coach. There have been some great division-round wins during the Belichick era. In 2002 there was the historic Snow Bowl game against the Raiders. In the 2004 season the Pats thumped the unbeatable Colts at Gillette 20-3, my all-time favorite. In between those two was a game that left me thrilled -- and chilled to the bone. Forecast for this Saturday's game is temps around 10 degrees. That will still be a little warmer than the coldest playoff game in team history.

Predicting this week's games is not easy. I got lucky and went 3-1 last week. Let's see if my luck continues. I think the cold weather (and the Niner D) will keep all the high-powered offenses below 30 points.

Saints 24, Niners 20

Patriots 27, Broncos 20

Ravens 23, Texans 17

Packers 20, Giants 17

Game films

Ball Breaker
The Longest Yard — MOVIECLIPS.com

If you only know the Adam Sandler version of "The Longest Yard" then you haven't really seen "The Longest Yard." The real one. 1974 (Yes, another "Game films" movie from the '70s). Burt Reynolds. Eddie Albert. Football legends Ray Nitschke, Joe Kapp, Sonny Sixkiller. The guy who played Jaws in the Bond movies. And a comically hot Bernadette Peters.

Oh, and it's a prison movie. Football in prison. What's better than that?

There are so many great scenes that it's tough to choose just one. ("I think I broke his freakin' neck!") But the scene above captures the essence of the movie. A disparate group of prisoners, led by pretty boy ex-quarterback Paul "Wrecking" Crew (Reynolds), goes up against the guards in what should be a mismatch as big as Brady vs. Tebow. But that's the beauty of football... you just never know.

If you're looking for something to keep you entertained while awaiting kickoff Saturday night... check out the original "The Longest Yard." Here's a clip of the winning score... kind of reminds me of a Tebow play.

The Longest Yard
The Longest Yard — MOVIECLIPS.com

Reading material

Wild-card weekend lived up to its name... mostly due to the instant-classic the Steelers and Broncos staged yesterday evening in Denver. The Saints offense looked awesome (again). The Giants D looked even better than it did in '07 (yikes). The Texans, even with TJ Yates at QB, looked good enough to go into Baltimore and pull the upset (please). But it was the Broncos and the Steelers that are the talk of the football world today. Well, as usual, most of the talk is about Tebow.

• The Christian Science Monitor -- how fitting -- weighs in with an interesting piece on how Tebow not being great is what makes Tebow great. 
• The Denver Post is finding religion. Tebow's performance in the thriller over Pittsburgh has lifted the holy spirits all around Colorado. It's been that magical.
• And let's not forget the Steel City. Pittsburgh is not used to losing games like that. I'm not used to seeing Pittsburgh losing games like that. I could get used to it. Reading some of the Steelers stories today, it was clear that this loss was less of a surprise in Pittsburgh than it was to me.

The Saints, Giants, Broncos, and Texans all looked capable of being this year's "team that gets hot in the playoffs." Their victories set up one of the most promising divisional rounds I can remember. In the NFC, the high-octane offense of the Saints against the stone-wall D of the Niners is a classic speed vs. brute force contest. The other NFC game is the Giants, looking very dangerous, going into Lambeau to take on the 15-1 defending champs. If the Packers are going to repeat, they are going to have to beat the Giants and either New Orleans or San Fran. That's a tough road back to the Super Bowl. In the AFC, the game that has the least buzz is Houston at Baltimore. It could turn out to be the best game of the weekend. Both teams can run and play nasty defense. And each can pass just enough to make plays. I will be hoping Houston pulls the upset, of course, because I'd rather not see Terrell Suggs chasing Brady all over the field during the AFC title game. THE game of the weekend will take place Saturday night at Gillette. There will be lots of talk this week about how lucky the Pats are to get Denver. That they should win rather easily. There are no sure things in the playoffs. Just look at yesterday's Broncos game.

Tebow time!

Tebow knocks out the Steelers!

Broncos vs. Patriots. Saturday at 8. Divisional playoffs. A rematch of the game in December in which the Pats fell behind early but pulled it together and dominated the rest of the way for a big victory on the road. This time it's at Gillette, but it's still going to be a tough game. It's always a tough game against the Broncos. Another chapter in one of the NFL's most interesting rivalries.

The tailgating will start very early in the afternoon. Extended forecast is partly cloudy with temps in the 20s. And a chance of light snow.

Time to start marinating meat.

Let the games begin

 It's playoff time... or as Jim Mora would say... Playoffs?!!!! Playoffs?!!!!

The word may have struck a nerve with Mora, but it's the favorite word of NFL fans. And it starts today.

It all kicks off with wild-card weekend, a weekend that the Pats have often had the luxury of watching along with the rest of us this past decade. The four matchups are often some of the best football games of the year. This year should be no different. So who will win? That's the best part... they are hard games to predict. But what the heck...

Cincinnati 30, Houston 17

New Orleans 37, Detroit 27

NY Giants 20, Atlanta 17

Denver 17, Pittsburgh 16

Jets to the MAX

I said to my nephew Pete as we were driving to Gillette on a beautiful New Year's Day morning... "If I could choose between the Pats winning today and getting the top seed and the Jets making the playoffs, or the Pats losing and getting the second seed and the Jets losing and not making the playoffs... I would chose the Pats losing,"

That's what you call being an irrational sports fan. Rooting more against another team than you are rooting for your own team. But I knew the pleasure I would get this week from the completion of the Jets implosion. Or at least I thought I knew. Turns out I way underestimated just how much fun it would be.

It actually started before the game even ended. Team "captain" Santonio Holmes, a malcontent his entire career, got into an argument in the huddle with teammates who had finally had enough of his act. In the huddle! In the fourth quarter of a game the Jets had to have. With everything on the line. Holmes was benched for the final few minutes. He didn't have a catch in the game. The Jets wilted in the Miami heat and lost 19-17. No playoffs. No Super Bowl.

And then the fun really began. First Ladianian Tomlinson chimed in on the Holmes argument and his captain's body language. "I'll tell you what," LT said. "It's tough for guys to follow a captain that kind of behaves in that manner. You're a captain, guys looking to you. You've got to lead by example. You've got to play your tail off until the last play." This from LT. The "leader" of the Chargers who left the AFC title game against the Pats a few years ago and sat sulking on the bench, buried under the hood of his giant winter coat, as his team's championship dreams faded yet again.

Give L.T. credit for facing the media. His teammate Bart Scott just flipped off the reporters, but not before saying "All I know is I have a $4 million guaranteed contract next year." The Jets say that isn't actually true.

Mt. Ryan then got his chance to speak and, once again, came off looking mostly like a buffoon. He talked about how he was not sorry that he spent more time predicting his team would win the Super Bowl and talking smack about the opponents than he did making sure his team was ready to play. He pretty much predicted -- again -- that the Jets would win it all next year. Eventually the questions turned to the Holmes argument in the huddle and his benching.

Here's what the Super Bowl champion coach had to say... "I looked out there and was wondering why he wasn't out there. I did not bench Santonio." Hmmm... Can you imagine Bill Belichick saying that? Maybe Ryan should take a few press conference lessons from him.

Things really got entertaining later in the week when the team's injured, rookie, fourth-string quarterback decided he too should talk. That's what Rex Ryan's players do. They talk. A lot. Greg McElroy (I googled him. He actually does play for the Jets) had this to say about his first year in the NFL...  "This place is a zoo. It's the first time I've ever been around extremely selfish individuals. There were people within our locker room that didn't care whether we won or lost as long as they really had a good game individually. It's going to take a lot to kind of come together next year."

Ryan did a little post-mortem during the week and summed it up very well..."Normally, I'm a guy that really has the pulse of the team," he said humbly. "I don't think I had the pulse of the team the way I've done in the past."

So many great quotes from a great collapse. But my favorite came from an unexpected source... the director of the Jets very unfortunate Pepsi MAX commercial that's been playing the past week or so. (Wonder how the execs at Pepsi have felt watching the Jets collapse knowing they were the focus of their new ad campaign?) The director describes working with Ryan and the Jets... "They're the best group of people I've ever worked with. Ryan has put together a fabulous team. The guys are harmonious."

I guess he should stick to making commercials and not judging team talent and chemistry.

Just as Ryan and the Jets should have stuck to studying game film and practicing instead of opening their mouths and making commercials.

Tournament teams

The very entertaining 2011 NFL regular season -- the one that almost wasn't -- has come to an end. Tebow. The Pack's run at 16-0. The Jets' collapse. Passing records falling like Ocho trying to catch a ball. The Harbaugh brothers. Very entertaining indeed. I thought the Pats would barely win the AFC East with an 11-5 record. They won the division a little easier than that. The Pats are the top seed in the AFC again. The defending champs are the top in the NFC. Will they stage a rematch of the '96 Super Bowl? New Orleans, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, or San Fran might have something to say about that. Here's my final Top 12. Why 12? Because that's how many playoff teams there are.

1. Green Bay Packers (15-1): Can they repeat like the '04 Pats? Yes they can. Will they? We'll see. Aaron Rodgers and his offense can score from anywhere on the field. Ryan Grant's return to health has gone under the radar but will be big in the playoffs. The Packers D gives up just as many yards as the Pats, but none of the experts seem to be concerned about that. Preseason rank: #3.

2. New Orleans Saints (13-3): Can they stop the Pack from back-to-back titles? Yes they can. Will they? We'll see. Drew Brees is unstoppable. He led my nephew Pete to a fantasy title almost single-handed. He looks ready to do the same in real football. If I were given a grand and told to put it on one team right now ... it would be the Saints. Preseason rank: #7.

3. New England Patriots (13-3): Since the two teams ranked ahead of the Pats are both in the NFC, that puts the Pats in the Super Bowl. Right? But that's getting way ahead of things. First they have to win a home playoff game. If it's Cincy or Denver coming to town in two weeks, I think the team gets the playoff monkey off its back. If it's the Steelers, well I think the Pats will still get that win but that is typed with a lot less confidence. Two words: Brady. Belichick. Preseason rank: #2.

4. Baltimore Ravens (12-4): The team that has the best chance of ruining another January for Pats fans. I've been expecting the team in black and purple to make a deep playoff run for a few years now. It's still hasn't happened. And the Hall of Fame defense is getting a little old. If the offense can make some plays they will be hard to beat. There is one guy I don't want to see walking into Gillette this month... Terrell Suggs. Preseason rank: #4.

5. San Francisco 49ers (13-3): The Niners will get a bit overshadowed by all the talk about the Pack and the Saints. They shouldn't. They are the dark horse that just might lap the field with their defense. They allowed the second fewest points this season. Patrick Willis is a beast. As is running back Frank Gore. The key will be how does young QB Alex Smith handle the playoff pressure. Preseason rank: #16.

6. Detroit Lions (10-6): Any playoff game that the Detroit Lions are playing in I am watching. This team is entertaining on so many levels. The passing game is explosive. As are the tempers of the head coach and the best defensive player. Big passes. Big penalties. You never know what can happen when the Lions are on the field. Good and bad. Preseason rank: #17.

7. Atlanta Falcons (10-6): The Falcons did not look sharp in their game against New Orleans two weeks ago. Not sharp at all. But the Saints can do that to teams. Atlanta has some talent. Matt Ryan leads a strong passing game and that's balanced with a power running game. The defense makes plays. Atlanta is very strong at home. Unfortunately they won't be having any home playoff games. Preseason rank: #6.

8. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4): The Steelers would be a few rungs higher if not for the small issue of their starting running back and starting quarterback being unable to walk. But Mike Tomlin's Steelers have always been dangerous when wounded. It's the signature of his teams. Tough. But their road through the playoffs will be just a little too tough this time around. Preseason rank: #8.

9. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7): I think Cincy goes into Houston and wins easily. So they get the nod in the rankings. The Bengals started fast this year, running up wins against a group of mediocre teams. Their second half schedule was filled with playoff teams -- and losses. But I was at the Bengals loss at Baltimore in  November and I liked what I saw. The Bengals are a good team that has played some good football but lost to better teams. That changes. Preseason rank: #31.

10. Houston Texans (10-6): The Texans would be higher too if not for the small issue of the team being on its fourth starting QB. If healthy, the Texans would be a major threat. They are still a threat thanks to their defense, but not a major one. The Texans are hoping TJ Yates is healthy enough to play. That's what kind of year it has been for Houston. Hoping TJ Yates can play. Cincy's defense is probably hoping that too. Preseason rank: #9.

11. New York Giants (9-7): The best pass rush in the playoffs. Is that enough to launch Eli on another improbable Super Bowl run? I hope not. But any Tom Coughlin team is dangerous. Any team with little Manning is dangerous. Any team with both Bradshaw and Jacobs at running back is dangerous. Any team with Cruz and Nicks at WR is dangerous. I might have the Giants ranked too low. Preseason rank: #18.

12. Denver Broncos (8-8): I don't have the Broncos ranked too low. That's for sure. What the heck happened to Tim Tebow? Ever since "SNL" did that Jesus skit the team hasn't won a game. The "SNL" jinx? Hmmm... Not surprisingly it didn't take NFL coaches long to start slowing Tebow down. I caught the last quarter of the team's loss to KC. Tebow looked like he had regressed back to his first few weeks. Or maybe the whole offense had. They come into the playoffs on a three-game losing streak. A well-earned losing streak. Preseason rank: #23.

Dishonorable mention:: I've been waiting to write this for two years... The New York Jets. (Sorry Jim). Rex Ryan, Mr. Big Mouth and Bigger Toes, reportedly cried when addressing his players the day after their season ended in flames. Really, there were almost actual flames. Team "captain" Santonio Holmes was benched after getting into an argument in the huddle. LT was his usual back-stabbing self at the end. Ryan cried. Bursting ... into ... flames. Mt. Ryan has already started making his Super Bowl predictions for next year. It was kind of laughable the previous two years after the team lost in the AFC title game. This year, after their train wreck 8-8 finish, it's Stooges funny. Preseason rank: #1. Very funny.

Dan. Oh.

BRADY: He doesn't look too worried.

The Globe's Dan Shaughnessy -- are you sitting down? -- doesn't think the Patriots can win a playoff game this year. (Those who are not surprised to hear this please click the "like" button.)

Clearly wanting the title of "first member of the Sports Blabosphere to say the Pats suck," Shaughnessy wasted no time declaring the playoffs over. Me and my tailgating friends plan on showing up anyways for the first playoff game on the night of January 14th. Actually, we can't wait.

But according to Dan, we are not going to like what we see once the game begins. "Something bad is going to happen at Gillette Stadium before this month is over," he writes. Something bad. (Hopefully not a ban on margaritas). I assume he's talking about the Pats losing a playoff game. He may be right. That's the thing about the NFL. You can have a great regular season (like, say, 13-3) but then have one bad game (heck, one bad quarter) and the season is quickly over. Happens to at least one team every year. Happened to the 14-2 Pats and 14-2 Falcons last year. That's what makes the NFL playoffs so much fun. Each game is huge because there is not the "we'll get 'em tomorrow" attitude you get in the best-of-seven world. That's why football fans get into watching every playoff game. Each one is an event. Each one is huge. A team like the Packers can get hot and roll to a championship. But let's not get all caught up in how much fun playoff football is. Who wants to talk about that when you can talk about how bad the 13-3 Pats are?

Like I said, Dan may be right. The Pats might get knocked out quickly. They are not unbeatable. And the other teams are all good. The Pats will have to play solid, near mistake-free football and even get some luck. That's the way it is no matter what a team's record is or how many passing yards the defense has given up. You know what team was beatable but played solid football and caught some luck? Actually I can think of three. The 2001, 2003, and 2004 Pats. Were those teams better than the 2011 Pats? In many ways yes, in some ways no. What those teams did better than all their competition was make plays when they had to. They gave up plays but got turnovers when they needed. And they caught breaks, lots of them, and took advantage of almost all of them.

Of course in '01 there was the Tuck Rule. And a non hands-to-the-face call in the Super Bowl on a pick-six. But the luck didn't end with that incredible year. Many seem to look at the back-to-back title teams as if they dominated every game. They didn't. In '03 there was a Steve McNair pass tipping off the fingers of Drew Bennett on a fourth-down play that should have been caught and would have sent the game into overtime. The Pats barely escaped the frigid temperatures and then went on to win it all. In '04, the Pats played an average game in the Super Bowl against Philly but made just enough plays to win by a field goal.

That's one of the main positives about the Pats of the last two years. They make a lot of plays. That's one thing the '09 Pats didn't do. And it showed in the blowout loss to the Ravens. Last year and this year the Pats have been among the best in winning the turnover battle. That, combined with a great offense and sound special teams, makes them a real contender. Dan says he thinks the real Patriots aren't the 13-3 team, but instead the team that fell behind early against Denver (and Miami and Buffalo and ...) before, in his words, "the Broncos turned the ball over three times in their own end in the second quarter ..."

Dan talks about those turnovers as if the Denver players just handed the ball to the Pats D and said "Here... you guys need some help." In fact, two of the three turnovers were plays that the Pats D made to turn the momentum in their favor. The D made those plays. The result of players doing what they have learned to do and being in the right position. And then making the play. The first was linebacker Dane Fletcher sniffing out the run, nailing the running back at the line, and knocking the ball loose. The next lucky turnover was caused by defensive end Mark Anderson who is becoming a force to deal with. Anderson slashed through the line and caught Tebow on the option, hitting him in stride and forcing another fumble. A great defensive play. The third turnover was a special teams gift. A gift that Ross Ventrone quickly accepted with the recovery. That's the Ross Ventrone who has been released, signed to the practice squad, activated, released, signed, released, signed ... He's one of the many role players who has played his role well.

Just as important as the plays to create the turnovers were the plays the offense then made to turn those turnovers into 13 points to take over the game. I think the real Pats are the ones that took the best shot of a red-hot Broncos team and then responded, one play at a time. On the road. Under pressure.

Dan can talk about how he doesn't have a good feeling about this team. He doesn't like what he sees. Maybe he needs to look a little closer. Here's what I see. Tom Brady. Wes Welker, Gronk, Hernandez, BenJarvus and Ridley, Branch, Woody, (not Ocho), Waters, Mankins and the rest of the offensive line. Solid young kickers in Zoltan and Gostkowski. And on the statistically challenged defense... Big Vince, Mark Anderson, Mayo, Spikes, Chung, a one-armed but gutsy McCourty, Arrington, Ninko, and Edelman (the new Troy Brown). That's a lot of playmakers.

Oh. and Bill Belichick. The Pats might lose, but it won't be because they aren't a playoff caliber team. In fact, I would say there's just as good a chance that the Pats come out and play a great playoff game as there is that they don't.

But that's just the way I look at it. I'm a fan. Not a Dan.